2025 MLB playoffs: Our predictions from the wild cards to the World Series
After an exhilarating finish to the regular season, the 2025 MLB playoffs kick off Tuesday afternoon with 12 teams vying to hoist this year’s World Series trophy.
The Dodgers look to further cement their dynasty by becoming the first repeat World Series champions since 2000, while the Yankees will try to go on another October run to return to the Fall Classic. The powerhouse Phillies will look to capitalize on their contention window to win their first title since 2008 — and don’t forget about the Brewers, Blue Jays and Mariners, who all also hold first-round byes and hope to make deep runs. However, this is the year without a superteam, so don’t expect wild-card teams to go down without a fight. Anyone can get hot in October.
Who will win each round? And which squad will be the last standing at the end of the postseason? We asked 25 of our MLB experts — from ESPN.com, TV, Research and more — to give us their predictions.
Below are their picks for the wild-card winners (two teams will make it out of each league), division series winners, league championship series winners and World Series champion.
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American League wild-card games
ALWC: Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians
Detroit Tigers 14
Cleveland Guardians 11
Our voters are pretty evenly split between Cleveland and Detroit. Why are the Tigers your pick? It’s really not any more complicated than taking the coldest team in September and projecting a run. Perhaps it lasts one series, but when you can nearly count on at least one win behind Tarik Skubal, I’ll take my chances with the Tigers. Yes, the Guardians beat him twice in the final weeks — all the more reason to bet on him this time. If any team can point to a restart in the playoffs as an energy lift, it’s Detroit. The team’s 7-17 record in September will be long forgotten with just two wins this week. — Jesse Rogers
And why are the Guardians yours? The Guardians proved they need to be taken seriously after a fantastic September. The Tigers, incidentally, have been overrated for months, and also proved that in September. Even if the Guardians struggle to score against the great Tarik Skubal in Game 1, they have the starting pitching advantage for the other games, as well as a big bullpen advantage. People are viewing these teams incorrectly: The Guardians are better, and they should outscore the Tigers in two of three home games to advance to the next round. — Eric Karabell
ALWC: Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
New York Yankees 18
Boston Red Sox 7
The Red Sox are an underdog in the eyes of our voters. How do you think they pull off the upset? In Game 1, they ride the powerful left arm of Garrett Crochet — and a save from Aroldis Chapman — to a low-scoring victory. Then, the Red Sox have to win just one of the next two games to advance. Just as easy as that!
OK, maybe it’s not quite so simple, but Boston’s ability to limit its pitching to just its top guys in a short series might be the deciding factor. The Red Sox will have Crochet and Brayan Bello to start the first two games, and the back of the bullpen with Chapman and Garrett Whitlock is as good as it gets, while the Yankees’ bullpen has obviously been shaky throughout the season. Crochet versus Aaron Judge will certainly be a key in Game 1: Remember that game in June, when Crochet took a 1-0 shutout into the ninth inning, but Judge homered to tie it? This time, Red Sox manager Alex Cora will hand the ball to Chapman, who allowed a .132 average and blew just one save since late May. — David Schoenfield
National League wild-card games
NLWC: Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers 24
Cincinnati Reds 1
Cincinnati barely snuck into the playoffs, but you have the Reds upsetting the reigning World Series champs in the first round. Tell us why. Because someone has to lean into the randomness of October here. Every March, we see No. 14 and No. 15 seeds upset the top college basketball teams. The odds of those March Madness stunners occurring are something like 80/20. Well, according to our Bradford Doolittle’s formula, the Reds have a 31.6% chance of knocking out the Dodgers this week. And they also have Hunter Greene pitching the opener. If he can deliver an ace-like performance in Game 1, this long shot pick will suddenly look a lot more realistic. — Dan Mullen
NLWC: San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs
San Diego Padres 15
Chicago Cubs 10
What would the Cubs need to do to knock out the Padres? The Cubs’ best chance is striking quickly. Padres manager Mike Shildt won’t hesitate to lean on his superb bullpen early, especially in a best-of-three series, but early Chicago runs flip the script. That forces a middling Padres lineup into a slugfest it isn’t built to win. The Cubs hold more pathways to victory while San Diego’s formula is narrow and volatile: Hand the ball to the bullpen with a lead and let it dominate. — Paul Hembekides
American League Division Series
ALDS: Winner of Tigers-Guardians vs. Seattle Mariners
Seattle Mariners 24
Detroit Tigers 1
Despite dropping the final series of the regular season, the Mariners are entering October with momentum and as our clear favorite to advance to the LCS. Why is that? The Mariners make a compelling case as the deepest, most talented team in the AL. Their rotation is arguably the game’s best when it’s clicking, and that seemed to be the case over these last few weeks of the regular season. Their bullpen can pitch with anyone’s. And their lineup, headlined by two legit stars in Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodriguez, is the deepest, most dynamic they’ve had in this era. The Mariners are the only franchise that hasn’t reached the World Series. Their fans are due. — Alden Gonzalez
ALDS: Winner of Red Sox-Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
New York Yankees 15
Toronto Blue Jays 5
Boston Red Sox 5
Toronto held on to win the AL East title over New York, yet more voters chose the Yankees to move on from the division series. What makes the Blue Jays your pick? It doesn’t feel revolutionary to pick the Blue Jays over the Yankees in a potential ALDS matchup. The Jays were a better team in the second half of the season, beat the Yankees in eight of 13 games this year and have home-field advantage. They have a break in the schedule that’ll help Bo Bichette get healthy, found gold in rookie starter Trey Yesavage and showcase a deep lineup that will run the Yankees’ beleaguered bullpen into the turf. The Yankees will come into the ALDS roughed up some by the Red Sox, and the Jays will roll. — Tim Keown
National League Division Series
NLDS: Winner of Reds-Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 16
Los Angeles Dodgers 9
A majority of our voters think the Phillies will beat the Dodgers to advance past the NLDS. Explain why you think L.A. will come out on top. The Phillies are plenty good enough to win the World Series, but I believe the Dodgers, when healthy, have the best roster in baseball. Their starting pitching is stout, and their leftover starters — Tyler Glasnow (for the wild-card series), Emmet Sheehan, Roki Sasaki and, eventually, Clayton Kershaw — might help mask the Dodgers’ ragged bullpen. And when catcher Will Smith returns (he might miss the wild-card series because of a hand injury), the Dodgers have the best offense in the NL. — Tim Kurkjian
NLDS: Winner of Padres-Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers 13
San Diego Padres 11
Chicago Cubs 1
Make the case for Milwaukee: At the most obvious level, the Brewers have the best record and run differential and finished in the top three in scoring and preventing runs. They are a complete team, baseball’s best during the regular season. As well-balanced as Milwaukee is, however, it is vulnerable to an opponent that can out-thump it. Based on what we’ve seen over the second half of the season in the NL, that’s more likely to be problematic against potential LCS opponents (Dodgers, Phillies) than LDS foes (Cubs or, most especially, the Padres). — Bradford Doolittle
Make the case for San Diego: The Padres are built well for October. They have perhaps the best bullpen in the playoff field — even without Jason Adam. Their rotation is topped by an ace, Nick Pivetta, followed by high-ceiling options Michael King and Dylan Cease. Their lineup is anchored by All-Stars Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. They carry extensive postseason experience. Ramon Laureano‘s finger injury surfaced at an inopportune time, but they’ll be difficult to eliminate if they get adequate starting pitching. And, as for the Cubs, losing Cade Horton for this series is a huge blow. — Jorge Castillo
American League Championship Series
Seattle Mariners 14
New York Yankees 7
Boston Red Sox 2
Detroit Tigers 1
Toronto Blue Jays 1
Despite representing the AL in the Fall Classic last year, New York received only six votes to return to it this year. Why do you think the Yankees will win the pennant? September began with Yankees fans questioning the direction of the franchise and the standing of manager Aaron Boone, but as the playoffs open, a lot is going very well. Aaron Judge finished on a heater, with a .436 average, 1.546 OPS and 9 homers in his last 17 games. Devin Williams didn’t allow a run in his last nine appearances, walking two and striking out 12. Max Fried, Carlos Rodon, Luis Gil and Cam Schlittler all threw well. This Yankees team might be better than the club that played in the World Series last fall. — Buster Olney
National League Championship Series
Philadelphia Phillies 12
Los Angeles Dodgers 7
San Diego Padres 3
Milwaukee Brewers 3
Though the Padres, Dodgers and Brewers also received votes here, the Phillies are the favorite. Why are they your pick? If Zack Wheeler hadn’t gotten hurt, they might’ve been everyone’s pick, but even without him, the Phillies have one of the best one-through-four rotations of any of the 12 playoff teams. Since Wheeler last appeared, the Phillies are 21-10 in games started by Cristopher Sanchez, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez and Jesus Luzardo, and the addition of closer Jhoan Duran, whose 16 saves since Aug. 1 are tied for the most in baseball, has significantly boosted an already solid bullpen.
Add in a pair of battle-tested postseason stars in Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, and this is one of the most well-rounded rosters in the October mix. Having a first-round bye plus home-field advantage for a shorter prospective division series matchup versus the Dodgers also helps their cause. The Phillies are as good a bet to win it all as anyone. — Tristan Cockcroft
World Series
Philadelphia Phillies 12
(Jessica Mendoza, Jesse Rogers, Eric Karabell, Tim Keown, Paul Hembekides, Tristan Cockcroft, Liz Finny,, Karl Ravech, Alden Gonzalez, JJ Post, Bradford Doolittle, Kiley McDaniel)
Seattle Mariners 5
(David Schoenfield, AJ Mass, Scott Gustafson, Jorge Castillo, Gregg Colli)
Los Angeles Dodgers 4
(Garrett Gastfield, Jeff Passan, Tim Kurkjian, Doug Glanville)
Milwaukee Brewers 2
(Scott Beaman, Dan Mullen)
New York Yankees 1
(Brendan DeAngelis)
San Diego Padres 1
(Buster Olney)
The Phillies were our most popular pick, even though they’ve faltered in the last couple of postseasons. Why is this year different? The Phillies are narrow betting favorites to win the World Series and are basically in a three-way tie with the Dodgers and Mariners in terms of odds from any projection system I can find.
For me, it’s a combination of being well-rounded (eighth in runs scored, sixth in runs allowed) as well as having lots of playoff experience, the second-best rotation in the sport despite losing their ace Zack Wheeler and a distinct home-field advantage. The Phillies’ weakness would be their bullpen, but adding Jhoan Duran at the deadline gives them a bullpen ace who will end up pitching disproportionately more than he did in the regular season. — McDaniel
Several voters are clearly excited about the Mariners. How can they come out victorious in the Fall Classic? Just keep doing what they did in September, when they won 17 out of 18 before a meaningless season-ending series loss to the Dodgers. The Mariners are perhaps the most well-rounded team in the AL: They hit the second-most home runs, they led all AL playoff teams in stolen bases, the bullpen ranked sixth in the majors in win probability added, the defense doesn’t make many mistakes (and Julio Rodriguez is excellent in center), and they’re tough at home, where they’ll have home-field advantage for at least the division series.
The starting pitching was inconsistent, but it finished strong. Bryan Woo had an excellent season but will need to show he’s healthy after missing his final start because of pectoral inflammation. Logan Gilbert ranked third among all pitchers with at least 100 innings in strikeout rate, behind only Zack Wheeler and Chris Sale. The final key: strikeouts. Only the Yankees and Tigers have a higher strikeout rate among the 12 postseason teams, with Eugenio Suarez, Randy Arozarena and Cal Raleigh each striking out at least 188 times. They’ll need to make enough contact to win it all. — Schoenfield
You were one of four to pick the Dodgers. What do you think makes them capable of being the first team to repeat as World Series champions since 2000? It comes down to talent and experience — and no team has more of either than the Dodgers. This is a different Dodgers team than last year, when, by the end of the World Series, they were down to a skeleton crew of starting pitchers. With Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani and Tyler Glasnow healthy and lined up, they’ve got the highest-ceiling — and perhaps also highest-floor — rotation of any playoff team. And any lineup that starts with Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman promises to be tricky for even the best pitchers to navigate. From April to September, the Dodgers were good. Now is the time for their greatness to reveal itself. — Passan
ARLINGTON, Texas — Bruce Bochy will not return as manager of the Texas Rangers after a three-year stint that began with the franchise’s first World Series championship in 2023 before missing the playoffs and not having a winning record in both seasons since then.
The Rangers said Monday night that the team and Bochy mutually agreed to end his managerial tenure in Texas. Bochy was offered a front office role to stay in an advisory capacity, the team said.
The move came a day after the Rangers finished 81-81. That was the first .500 record for the franchise that began as the Washington Senators in 1961 before moving to Texas in 1972, and a first for Bochy in 28 seasons managing San Diego, San Francisco and Texas.
Bochy was at the end of the three-year contract he got when Chris Young, one of his former pitchers, hired him after the Rangers’ sixth consecutive losing season. Bochy went 249-237 with the Rangers.
“Bruce Bochy is one of the greatest managers in baseball history, and he will forever hold a place in the hearts of Ranger fans after bringing home the first World Series title in franchise history in 2023,” said Young, then their general manager and now the Rangers’ president of baseball operations. “Boch brought class and respect to our club in his return to the dugout, and we will always take pride in being part of his Hall of Fame career.”
After turning 70 this season as baseball’s winningest active manager, Bochy has a career record of 2,252-2,266, with those wins ranking sixth among all managers — the five ahead of him are all in the Hall of Fame. No managers in the past 60 years have more than Bochy’s four World Series titles, and the only ones with more are Joe McCarthy, Casey Stengel and Connie Mack.
Bochy had been out of managing for three seasons when he was hired by Texas. He had stepped out of the Giants dugout at the end of 2019 after 13 seasons and three championships from 2010 to 2014. That followed 12 seasons and another National League pennant with the Padres.
San Francisco, also 81-81 this season, fired second-year manager Bob Melvin on Monday after the Giants missed the playoffs for the fourth year in a row. Minnesota fired Rocco Baldelli, ending his seven-year tenure that included three American League Central titles, but only one playoff appearance, over his final five seasons.
The Giants’ president of baseball operations is Buster Posey, the 2012 National League MVP and seven-time All-Star catcher who played all but the last of his 12 MLB seasons with Bochy as his manager.
Over the last week of the regular season, Bochy wouldn’t answer questions about his future with the Rangers, saying that the decision would wait until after the season. But he said he was having a great time and didn’t sound like he was ready to be done as a manager.
“It’s as much fun as I’ve had in the game,” Bochy said last week about managing again. “I said this when I came back, you have a deeper appreciation when you’re out, especially for three years and you realize what you have, how blessed you are to be doing what you’re doing. It’s been a lot of fun, and I still love it, and enjoy it.”
And that was during a strange and frustrating season on the field for the Rangers, who, for the first time, had a pitching staff that led the majors in ERA (3.47). They also set a single-season MLB record with their .99112 fielding percentage, bettering the 2013 Baltimore Orioles‘ mark of .99104.
Among the potential replacements for Bochy in Texas is former Miami Marlins manager Skip Schumaker, who joined the Rangers last November as a senior adviser for baseball operations.
The 45-year-old Schumaker was the 2023 NL Manager of the Year after the Marlins went 84-78 and made the playoffs. They slipped to 62-100 in 2024 with a roster decimated by trades and injuries before the team and Schumaker agreed that he would not return for this season. He was previously a bench coach for St. Louis, where he had played for the Cardinals during their 2011 World Series championship over Texas.
Young said Schumaker would be a candidate, but that there had not yet been conversations within the organization about the search process.
The Rangers went more than a month at the end of the season without their half-billion-dollar middle infield of two-time World Series MVP shortstop Corey Seager (appendectomy) and second baseman Marcus Semien (left foot), as well as 35-year-old right-hander Nathan Eovaldi, who was 11-3 with a career-best 1.73 ERA over his 14 MLB seasons before getting shut down because of a rotator cuff strain.
Even without those standouts and several rookies filling in, the Rangers went on a 13-3 run to get within two games of the AL West lead on Sept. 13, and in the thick of the wild-card chase. They then lost their next eight games and were eliminated from playoff contention.
The only manager older than Bochy this season was 73-year-old Ron Washington, but he didn’t manage a game for the Los Angeles Angels after June 19 because of quadruple bypass heart surgery.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
MINNEAPOLIS — The Minnesota Twins fired manager Rocco Baldelli on Monday, ending his seven-year tenure that included three American League Central titles after a second straight disappointing season.
“This is a difficult day because of what Rocco represents to so many people here,” Twins president Derek Falvey said in a statement. “He led with honesty, integrity, and an unwavering commitment to our players and staff. He gave himself fully to this role and I have tremendous respect and gratitude for the way he carried himself and the way he showed up every single day.”
The Twins, who were expected to contend for the AL Central title this season, faltered in June and became active at the trade deadline, sending away 10 players while cutting $26 million from the payroll. The team went 23-43 after the All-Star break to finish fourth in the division with a 70-92 mark.
Minnesota went 19-35 after the trade deadline passed, with only the Colorado Rockies faring worse over the final two months.
The Twins finished with the fourth-worst record in the major leagues and their worst mark since 2016, when they went 59-103 after firing longtime general manager Terry Ryan at midseason. Falvey was hired to replace Ryan after that.
The 44-year-old Baldelli, who won the 2019 AL Manager of the Year award as a rookie, has led the Twins to three division titles. In 2023, Minnesota ended a record 18-game postseason losing streak and won its first playoff series since 2002.
Baldelli had an overall record of 527-505 in seven seasons, and he’s the third-winningest manager in Twins history behind Tom Kelly and Ron Gardenhire.
Attendance has swooned at Target Field, with the Twins finishing with an 81-home game total of a little more than 1.7 million tickets sold, their lowest number in a non-pandemic season since 2000 when they played at the Metrodome and finished 69-93.
Fans have mostly directed their disdain toward ownership, with deep frustration over cost-cutting that came after the 2023 breakthrough. The Pohlad family put the franchise up for sale last year, but decided last month to keep control and bring on two new investment groups for an infusion of cash to help pay down debt.
The dizzying trade-deadline activity left Baldelli and his staff without much to work with down the stretch, though All-Star center fielder Byron Buxton was a bright spot in a breakthrough season for his health, and rookie second baseman Luke Keaschall provided consistent production and a professional approach at the plate belying his inexperience.
The departures of shortstop Carlos Correa, outfielder Harrison Bader, first baseman Ty France and multi-position player Willi Castro robbed the lineup of experience and steadiness, but that was nothing like what happened to Baldelli’s bullpen.
The Twins traded their five best relievers, from closer Jhoan Duran on down, and left the final 54 games to a ragtag group that had eight blown saves in 18 opportunities during that span.
Baldelli was hired before the 2019 season to replace Hall of Famer Paul Molitor, with Falvey citing his adaptivity to the data-based direction of baseball strategy and his communication skill in distilling it to coaches and players and clearly setting expectations and preferences.
“Over the past seven years, Rocco has been much more than our manager. He has been a trusted partner and teammate to me in leading this organization,” Falvey said in a statement. “Together we shared a deep care for the Twins, for our players and staff, and for doing everything in our power to put this club in the best position to succeed.
“Along the way we experienced some meaningful accomplishments, and I will always be proud of those, even as I wish we had ultimately achieved more.”
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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