In recent years, Week 9 of the college football season has been good at shutting down fun upstart stories — or at least severely wounding them.

Think of unranked Wisconsin pummeling No. 9 Iowa, Mississippi State upsetting No. 12 Kentucky and Michigan State upending No. 6 Michigan in 2021. Or unranked Louisville upsetting No. 10 Wake Forest in 2022. Or Oregon blowing out No. 13 Utah in 2023 and No. 20 Illinois in 2024. Or Texas finishing off last season’s Diego Pavia-and-Vanderbilt episode. Before we get to November, where nearly everything we remember from a given season happens, we evidently have to declutter a bit.

Maybe that says foreboding things this week about Texas A&M, with its highest poll ranking in 30 years, playing a desperate LSU in Baton Rouge. Or an unbeaten BYU team playing at Iowa State. But how do the college football gods properly declutter this season? Who’s the upstart that falls when No. 10 Vanderbilt hosts No. 15 Missouri? How does an ACC race with five to seven contenders, none of whom were the preseason favorites, get cleaned up?

The 2025 season has broken containment, and as we careen toward November, let’s see if it’s even possible for it to start making sense. Here’s everything you need to follow in a cluttered Week 9.

Another huge SEC tripleheader

Though there’s a chance the SEC race gives us another Alabama-Georgia conference title game, I still believe we might have a major plot twist or two. Week 9 will help us figure out who might benefit from that plot twist, as the league again gives us a tripleheader of interesting matchups.

No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 20 LSU (7:30 p.m., ABC)

Tiger Stadium is typically an absolute cauldron at night; the home team has won eight straight in this series (six by multiple scores), and LSU is desperate after losses at Ole Miss and Vanderbilt. A&M coach Mike Elko’s most important task might be keeping his unbeaten Aggies dialed in amid an early sea of noise and emotion.

The next task will be scoring points. The Aggies have done plenty of that this season, but LSU ranks sixth in defensive SP+ and has yet to allow more than 10 points at home. The Tigers are better against the pass than the run, which could be an issue — even without the injured Le’Veon Moss, A&M averaged 6.2 yards per carry against Arkansas last week. But on third-and-3 or more, Marcel Reed and the Aggies are converting just 23.5% of the time, 129th nationally. Tiger Stadium can get awfully loud on third down.

LSU’s offense is showing signs of improvement. Even with leading receiver Aaron Anderson limited, the Tigers averaged 6.7 yards per play against South Carolina and Vanderbilt, though red zone failures kept the point totals tamped down. Tight end Trey’Dez Green is becoming a matchup nightmare, and LSU ran the ball well for once against Vanderbilt. If Garrett Nussmeier can complete even a couple of downfield passes, this becomes a very dangerous team. Unfortunately, we’re still waiting on that.

On passes thrown at least 25 yards downfield, Nussmeier is a shocking 1-for-16 this season. If you can’t create easy points from big plays, and you stink in the red zone, it becomes awfully difficult to score touchdowns.

A&M is No. 3 in the country, but the stakes are higher for the Tigers, both because they’ve run out of margin for error in the playoff hunt and because of the increasing heat on coach Brian Kelly. If the Aggies overcome this team and this environment, they are legit SEC, and potentially national title, contenders.

Current line: A&M -2.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 0.8 | FPI projection: A&M by 0.6

No. 15 Missouri at No. 10 Vanderbilt (3:30 p.m., ESPN)

On Oct. 18, 1947, No. 10 Vanderbilt hosted Bear Bryant’s 20th-ranked Kentucky Wildcats. Led by soon-to-be All-America center Jay Rhodemyre, Kentucky controlled the line of scrimmage, allowing just 151 total yards and getting just enough offense from George Blanda & Co. to prevail 14-0. The Commodores fell out of the AP top 10 … and didn’t return for 78 years. But here they are, ranked 10th and hosting Missouri and “College GameDay” on Saturday.

The Tigers and Commodores have lost only to Alabama, and one will be 7-1 and in the thick of the SEC and playoff hunts heading into November. If Mizzou wins, it will likely be Bear Bryant Kentucky-style, via the line of scrimmage. Ends Zion Young and Damon Wilson II key a Tigers defense that ranks seventh in success rate*, and after struggling to get Ahmad Hardy and the run game going against Alabama and Auburn, Missouri could get some respite against a Vandy defense that ranks just 62nd in yards allowed per carry (not including sacks). The Commodores are good at limiting big plays, but Mizzou will have an opportunity to generate efficiency for quarterback Beau Pribula.

The Tigers better do that because Vandy’s offense is as efficient as they come: The Dores are first nationally in points per drive and third in success rate. The offensive line is excellent, backs Sedrick Alexander and Makhilyn Young average 7.3 yards per carry, and quarterback Diego Pavia is the best improviser in the sport. The passing game isn’t particularly explosive, but it’s really hard to knock Vandy off-schedule.

(* Success rate: How frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second or 100% on third and fourth.)

Current line: Vandy -2.5 | SP+ projection: Vandy by 0.2 | FPI projection: Vandy by 1.3

No. 8 Ole Miss at No. 13 Oklahoma (noon, ABC)

From importance and “styles make fights” perspectives, Ole Miss’ first trip to Norman is one of the most interesting games of the week. As with Mizzou-Vandy, the winner will be in solid shape in the SEC race and in great shape for the College Football Playoff. Everywhere you look, it’s either strength-versus-strength or weakness-versus-weakness.

Ole Miss offense: 12th in points per drive
Oklahoma defense: second in points per drive

Oklahoma offense: 65th in points per drive
Ole Miss defense: 70th in points per drive

Oklahoma boasts the most aggressive defense in college football: Opponents have gained zero or fewer yards on 44.0% of snaps, most in the country. Ole Miss, however, has by far the best offense the Sooners have faced to date. Trinidad Chambliss and the Rebels just scored 35 points on a Georgia defense that had been allowing 17 per game. Chambliss’ No. 2 and 3 pass catchers (Deuce Alexander and tight end Dae’Quan Wright) are listed as questionable, but Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin and offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. can usually scheme up success.

Of course, Ole Miss also allowed 43 points to the Dawgs. The Rebels are awful against the run, but OU hasn’t established much in that regard. Oklahoma’s success comes via the pass, but Ole Miss is decent in that regard (despite a poor pass rush), and Sooners quarterback John Mateer has averaged just 4.5 yards per dropback since rushing back from a hand injury.

With the way Ole Miss faltered late against Georgia and the way OU’s offense has performed of late, I could be talked into a blowout in either direction here.

Current line: OU -5.5 (up from -3.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: OU by 5.0 | FPI projection: OU by 1.3

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Who remains unbeaten?

We’re suddenly down to just six unbeaten teams: Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, Georgia Tech, BYU and Navy. The Buckeyes are off, and we mentioned A&M above, but here’s what the other perfect teams have in store.

UCLA at No. 2 Indiana (noon, Fox)

Surely UCLA can’t do it again, right? In the past three weeks, the Bruins have wrecked Penn State’s season (and James Franklin’s tenure), further wrecked Michigan State’s and hastened Maryland’s October demise. Now, they get a shot at Curt Cignetti’s brilliant Indiana Hoosiers.

The Bruins have turned around their season by creating negative plays and turnovers on defense and running the ball with ruthless efficiency behind backs Jalen Berger, Anthony Frias II and Jaivian Thomas. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava is making just enough plays with his legs to overcome his sack-prone tendencies. (He’s also practicing this week after suffering an injury against Maryland last Saturday.)

Of course, Indiana almost completely avoids negative plays and turnovers on offense and both defends the run aggressively and sacks QBs like few others (third nationally in sack rate). The Hoosiers should handle this test quite well, though at this point, it might be fair to ask, what doesn’t Indiana do well? Where might the Hoosiers be vulnerable to a challenge between now and what feels like an inevitable battle with Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game?

From a statistical standpoint, I can really find only two areas of concern.

1. The Hoosiers are strangely poor on fourth downs. They’re just 3-for-11 this season. Granted, this would be more of a problem if they weren’t fourth nationally in third-down conversion rate (54.9%), but something’s off there.

2. They’re sometimes too aggressive up front. They’re first nationally in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line), but when they give up a successful rush, it’s a pretty big one. Big plays are holding them back at least slightly.

Granted, it’s hard to complain too much about a defense that ranks third nationally in points allowed per drive, but big plays have been known to create upsets.

Current line: Indiana -25.5 (up from -23.5) | SP+ projection: Indiana by 27.9 | FPI projection: Indiana by 26.4

No. 11 BYU at Iowa State (3:30 p.m., Fox)

Not too long ago, Iowa State was 5-0 with wins over rivals Kansas State and Iowa and a blowout of Arizona. But after losing cornerbacks Jeremiah Cooper and Jontez Williams to ACL injuries, and with a nonexistent pass rush, the Cyclones gave up too many big plays in road losses to Cincinnati and Colorado. (The offense also failed in Boulder, turning 441 yards into just 17 points.)

What do you do when your unbeaten season is ruined? Try to ruin someone else’s! Coming off a bye week, ISU is somewhat surprisingly favored at home against unbeaten BYU. The Cougars have already survived a few tight Big 12 contests. Quarterback Bear Bachmeier is a lower-efficiency, higher-explosiveness passer, and he’s making a difference in the run game. Can ISU make enough stops? If not, can Rocco Becht and the offense keep up in a track meet?

Current line: ISU -2.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 3.2 | FPI projection: BYU by 1.2

Syracuse at No. 7 Georgia Tech (noon, ESPN)

Syracuse is 0-3 since quarterback Steve Angeli was lost for the season; Rickie Collins has thrown six interceptions in his past two games, and the Orange have lost to Duke, SMU and Pitt by an average of 33-11. Georgia Tech’s defense isn’t amazing but is probably good enough to keep Syracuse stuck in neutral.

Meanwhile, the Tech offense is the best the Orange have faced since Week 1 against Tennessee. It would be great for the Yellow Jackets if they could handle this one easily enough that Haynes King isn’t forced to run a lot and take lots of hits for once.

Current line: Tech -16.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 17.8 | FPI projection: Tech by 13.7

Florida Atlantic at Navy (3:30 p.m., CBSSN)

FAU is a unique out. Zach Kittley’s Owls go for it on fourth down more than half the time, they play at the nation’s second-fastest tempo and they hunt big plays. Unfortunately, they also rank 120th in success rate and 124th in turnovers. Their aggressiveness often fails to produce points (or give their defense a rest), and they’ve lost four games by an average of 27 points. Blake Horvath and Navy are projected underdogs in each of their past four games — at North Texas, at Notre Dame, vs. USF, at Memphis — but they should move to 8-0 here.

Current line: Navy -15.5 | SP+ projection: Navy by 19.3 | FPI projection: Navy by 11.1

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Two old Big Ten rivalries (and great trophies)

They know trophies in the Big Ten. They also know 5-2 records. Eight of the conference’s 18 teams are 5-2, and any of those teams that can win out and get to the finish line at 10-2 will be in the CFP conversation.

This weekend gives us two of the sport’s best trophy games involving three members of the 5-2 club.

Minnesota at Iowa (3:30 p.m., CBS)

It’s really hard to beat the Floyd of Rosedale, a 98-pound bronze pig that Minnesota and Iowa have been fighting over for 90 years. Iowa has held on to it (him?) for nine of the past 10 years.

Iowa is the projected favorite in this one, both because of home-field advantage and because the Hawkeyes can run the ball and defend the run. They’re 17th in rushing success rate, a massive upgrade over a couple of years ago, and though quarterback Mark Gronowski threw for just 68 yards in last week’s win over Penn State, he rushed for 130 yards and two scores. Meanwhile, Iowa is allowing just 3.4 yards per carry, not including sacks.

The ground game can be all that matters in an Iowa-Minnesota game, but Minnesota is putting a lot on redshirt freshman quarterback Drake Lindsey’s right arm, and he’s holding up mostly well despite an inefficient ground game (103rd in rushing success rate). The Gophers were also brilliant last week, sacking Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola nine times, getting a 16-for-20 performance from Lindsey and even getting 148 rushing yards from Darius Taylor in a 24-6 win.

Current line: Iowa -8.5 | SP+ projection: Iowa by 10.2 | FPI projection: Iowa by 8.7

No. 25 Michigan at Michigan State (7:30 p.m., NBC)

The Paul Bunyan Trophy is a pretty good reward in a series that has seen some recent momentum shifts. Michigan State won eight of 10 between 2008 and 2017 — a run that included one of the most shocking endings of the 21st century — but Michigan has won five of the past seven.

Both of these teams need this one. Michigan’s excellent 24-7 win over Washington last week laid out a scenario in which the Wolverines are 9-2 and riding a five-game winning streak when Ohio State visits.

MSU, on the other hand, just needs something positive. The Spartans have lost four straight, all by double digits. Quarterback Aidan Chiles showed flashes of improvement early, but the Spartans’ offensive effectiveness has trailed off. Second-year coach Jonathan Smith is beginning to show up on “hot seat” lists, and though that seems foolish to me — you don’t hire a guy because of his long-term program-building prowess, then drop him in less than two seasons — this will still almost certainly be State’s fourth losing season in a row.

Current line: Michigan -14.5 | SP+ projection: Michigan by 15.8 | FPI projection: Michigan by 14.6

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This week in the Group of 5

Memphis’ shocking loss to UAB last week threw the races for both the American title and the Group of 5’s guaranteed playoff bid into uncertainty, and at first glance, it seems like USF is best poised to take advantage. Guess who will play against each other this weekend? Memphis and USF! It’s the pretty obvious G5 game of the week, though I’ve got another interesting game to put on your radar, too.

No. 18 South Florida at Memphis (noon, ESPN2)

USF leaves no doubt. Apart from their 18-16 win over Florida, the Bulls have won five games by an average of 52-19 and suffered their lone loss (to Miami) 49-12. Alex Golesh’s offense is both ridiculously explosive and, thanks in part to quarterback Byrum Brown‘s legs, excellent on third downs. And after an average defensive SP+ ranking of 113.0 in Golesh’s first two seasons, the Bulls are currently 57th.

If last week was just a “stuff happens” loss for Memphis — interim-coached teams (like UAB) have been shockingly good so far this season — the Tigers should have plenty to offer, especially at home. They start and finish drives beautifully (eighth in three-and-out rate, third in red zone TD rate), and though their pass rush is problematic, they control the line of scrimmage against the run and force third-and-longs. They have an immediate chance to right last week’s wrongs and climb back to the top of the conference pecking order.

Current line: USF -4.5 | SP+ projection: Memphis by 5.4 | FPI projection: Memphis by 0.1

San Diego State at Fresno State (3:30 p.m., FS1)

If you’re looking for playoff alternatives outside of the American, take a gander at San Diego State. Starting with a 34-0 stomping of Cal, Sean Lewis’ Aztecs have won four straight, overachieving against SP+ projections by 17.3 points per game. They’re not reliable yet — they’ve scored 34-plus four times and under 14 twice, and they’ve allowed 7.4 points per game in wins and 36 in their lone loss. But corner Chris Johnson and edge rusher Trey White are two of the G5’s best playmakers, and if they can score enough against a solid Fresno State defense (not a given), their odds of reaching 11-1 improve considerably.

Current line: SDSU -2.5 | SP+ projection: SDSU by 6.1 | FPI projection: SDSU by 2.7

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It’s Dakota Marker time!

FCS: No. 1 North Dakota State at No. 2 South Dakota State (8 p.m., ESPNU)

South Dakota State lost coach Jimmy Rogers to Washington State and more than 20 transfers, including quarterback Mark Gronowski (Iowa), to FBS teams. North Dakota State lost a few stars, too, including running back CharMar Brown (Miami) and safety Cole Wisniewski (Texas Tech). The transfer portal can hit you especially, hard even at the FCS level.

Oh right, I almost forgot: NDSU and SDSU are a combined 14-0 this season.

SDSU’s stats have slipped slightly, though big quarterback Chase Mason has 1,419 passing yards and thrown 11 touchdowns and one interception, and the pass defense is as nasty as ever, with 12 interceptions and 18 sacks in seven games. NDSU, however, has established a level of dominance we haven’t seen from the Bison in a while. The defending FCS champs have outscored opponents by an average of 44-10, and only one opponent has stayed closer than 27 points. Quarterback Cole Payton is producing Mason-like stats, and the receiver trio of Bryce Lance, RaJa Nelson and Reis Kessel is averaging 20.1 yards per catch. Based on their current SP+ rating, the Bison would be in the top 40 in FBS.

We’ve seen intriguing performances from programs such as Tarleton State (third in SP+) and Harvard (fourth), but until proven otherwise, these remain FCS’ defining programs. And for the third time since 2022, the Dakota Marker is a 1-versus-2 battle. The No. 2 team won both of the previous games, and it wouldn’t be a shock if SDSU pulled off a home upset. But it would definitely be an upset — the Bison have been at a different level thus far.

SP+ projection: NDSU by 6.9

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Week 9 chaos superfecta

We’re once again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. We ended a three-week losing streak with a two-fer last week, so we’re back to 4-4 for the year.

This week, we set our sights on the Big 12. SP+ says there’s only a 54% chance that Cincinnati (75% win probability against Baylor), Utah (86% against Colorado), TCU (84% against West Virginia) and Texas Tech (99% against Oklahoma State) all win. I say there’s a 0% chance!

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Week 9 playlist

Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.

Friday evening

California at Virginia Tech (7:30 p.m., ESPN). After the turmoil of the past few years, Cal reaching 5-2 is a cool story. But the Golden Bears have gotten here while beating only one team better than 90th in SP+. Virginia Tech is only 91st, but the interim-coached Hokies have been more competitive over the past month and are favored despite their 2-5 record.

Current line: Tech -4.5 | SP+ projection: Cal by 0.9 | FPI projection: Tech by 6.6

Early Saturday

Auburn at Arkansas (12:45 p.m., SECN). This is easily the most stylistically interesting game of the week in the SEC. In league play, Auburn games have averaged 32.8 total points, while Arkansas games have averaged 76.0. It’s like the two teams are playing different sports at the moment, though they’re both losing at those sports. (Combined SEC record: 0-7.)

Current line: Arkansas -2.5 (flipped from Auburn -1.5) | SP+ projection: Auburn by 0.3 | FPI projection: Arkansas by 0.2

Northwestern at Nebraska (noon, FS1). Something has clicked for Northwestern: The Wildcats have won four in a row, and over the past three, they’ve overachieved against SP+ projections by 19.6 points per game. Nebraska is favored for a reason, but Matt Rhule’s Huskers were pretty poor in last week’s loss to Minnesota, and Northwestern’s defense is just as good as the Gophers’.

Current line: Huskers -8.5 | SP+ projection: Huskers by 12.0 | FPI projection: Huskers by 7.2

Kansas State at Kansas (noon, TNT). Kansas State’s past three games have been its best three of the season, and the sight of Kansas on the other sideline tends to bring out the Wildcats’ best — they haven’t lost the Sunflower Showdown since 2008. Kansas got a week off to recover from a humbling loss at Texas Tech; in which direction does the Jayhawks’ season go from here?

Current line: KU -2.5 | SP+ projection: KU by 5.0 | FPI projection: KU by 1.7

No. 16 Virginia at North Carolina (noon, ACCN). UVA tried pretty hard to lose to Washington State at home last week, while UNC went across the country and played its best game of 2025. It’s at least conceivable that Bill Belichick’s Heels can pull a surprise. Still, UVA’s offense is so clean, with minimal negative plays and efficiency via run and pass, that the Cavaliers get the benefit of the doubt.

Current line: UVA -10.5 (up from -8.5) | SP+ projection: UVA by 12.6 | FPI projection: UVA by 11.9

SMU at Wake Forest (noon, The CW). These teams went a combined 4-4 in September but are 5-0 in October. Wake plays great defense with the most all-or-nothing offense you’ll see, and SMU’s defense has rounded back into form after a poor start. The Mustangs need this one for ACC contention, but Jake Dickert has Wake moving in a very fun direction.

Current line: SMU -3.5 | SP+ projection: SMU by 4.1 | FPI projection: SMU by 4.8

Saturday afternoon

No. 23 Illinois at Washington (3:30 p.m., BTN). Washington has averaged just 12.3 points per game against top-15 defenses (per SP+) and 51.3 against defenses ranked 85th or lower. Illinois’ defense is in the middle (48th), so I guess we assume the Huskies score 30 or so? Illinois can probably hit that mark against a shaky-but-improving UW defense, too. This should be fun.

Current line: UW -3.5 | SP+ projection: UW by 3.7 | FPI projection: UW by 2.9

No. 4 Alabama at South Carolina (3:30 p.m., ABC). After a blowout loss at home, South Carolina turned around its 2024 season by nearly toppling Alabama in Tuscaloosa, then winning six straight. The circumstances are even worse for the Gamecocks this time — last week’s 19-point loss to Oklahoma dropped them to 3-4 — but maybe they still have a turnaround in them? Maybe Alabama suffers a letdown after four straight wins against ranked teams? Possibly? Yeah, I’m not convinced either.

Current line: Bama -12.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 10.5 | FPI projection: Bama by 10.7

Baylor at No. 21 Cincinnati (4 p.m., ESPN2). Baylor lives to entertain: Five of the Bears’ seven games have topped 60 total points, and they’re 19th in offensive SP+ and 98th on defense. Cincinnati doesn’t mind a good track meet, but the Bearcats’ bend-don’t-break defense has improved of late. With games against Utah and BYU looming, Cincy’s Big 12 title hopes would take a hit with an upset loss.

Current line: Cincy -3.5 (down from -5.5) | SP+ projection: Cincy by 10.9 | FPI projection: Cincy by 4.5

No. 22 Texas at Mississippi State (SECN). Mississippi State is 0-3 in SEC play, but two losses went down to the wire. So did Texas’ frustrating overtime win at Kentucky last week. The MSU offense is quickly losing steam, but the Texas offense hasn’t really had any. One assumes the elite Texas defense drives another win, but this could be tight for a while.

Current line: Horns -7.5 | SP+ projection: Horns by 7.2 | FPI projection: Horns by 9.5

Western Michigan at Miami (Ohio) (3:30 p.m., ESPN+). WMU probably didn’t want a bye last week — the smoking-hot Broncos have won four straight since an 0-3 start, overachieving against projections by 21.3 points per game. Now, they trek to Oxford to face a Miami team that has also gone from 0-3 to 4-3. The winner of this one heads into November’s midweek MACtion slate as the conference title favorite.

Current line: Miami -1.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 2.5 | FPI projection: Miami by 0.5

Oklahoma State at No. 14 Texas Tech (4 p.m., ESPNU). With quarterback Behren Morton injured, Tech suffered its first blemish of the season at Arizona State last week. Backup Will Hammond appears likely to start again Saturday, but even without Morton (or tortillas), one assumes the Red Raiders should manhandle an OSU team that has fallen to an almost inconceivable 121st in SP+.

Current line: Tech -38.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 39.3 | FPI projection: Tech by 34.6

Saturday evening

Houston at No. 24 Arizona State (8 p.m., ESPN2). ASU has won 11 of its past 13 Big 12 games, and both of the losses were without Sam Leavitt. After Saturday’s injury-aided victory over Tech, the Sun Devils could be in great shape to return to the conference title game with a win here. But they’ll have to take on a strong Houston defense without star receiver Jordyn Tyson (hamstring), and Houston’s offense is coming off two strong performances.

Current line: ASU -6.5 (down from -8.5) | SP+ projection: ASU by 0.9 | FPI projection: ASU by 6.0

No. 17 Tennessee at Kentucky (SECN). Kentucky showed signs of life for the first time in a while against Texas. Was that the start of something or a last gasp? If it’s the former, Tennessee has underachieved against SP+ projections for five straight games and could be vulnerable after last week’s demoralizing loss to Bama. If it’s the latter, never mind.

Current line: Vols -7.5 (down from -9.5) | SP+ projection: Vols by 10.4 | FPI projection: Vols by 7.3

Stanford at No. 9 Miami (7 p.m., ESPN). Consider this a good temperature check for Miami after its first setback of the season against Louisville. The Hurricanes will likely roll over Stanford regardless, but with a big trip to SMU looming, now’s the time for a bounce-back game from quarterback Carson Beck and fewer missed tackles from the defense.

Current line: Miami -29.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 29.4 | FPI projection: Miami by 26.6

Wisconsin at No. 6 Oregon (7 p.m., FS1). Against teams ranked worse than 60th in SP+, Oregon has gone 5-0 with an average score of 51-9. Wisconsin is most certainly worse than 60th. In fact, after back-to-back shutout losses, the Badgers would probably take the nine points if offered. Hmm. Tell me why I listed this game?

Current line: Ducks -32.5 | SP+ projection: Ducks by 31.6 | FPI projection: Ducks by 29.4

Late Saturday

Colorado at Utah (10:15 p.m., ESPN). Utah needs to win out to keep its conference title hopes alive and is favored in each remaining game. But quarterback Devon Dampier is listed as questionable after an injury against BYU, and Colorado has dropped hints of defensive competence. Kaidon Salter and the Buffaloes also have some big-play potential on offense. This one might not be a gimme.

Current line: Utah -12.5 (down from -14.5) | SP+ projection: Utah by 17.0 | FPI projection: Utah by 11.2

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Smaller-school showcase

Let’s once again save a shout-out for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Besides Dakota Marker, here are three games you should track.

FCS: No. 16 Presbyterian at Dayton (12 p.m., YouTube). We’re getting pretty used to incredible turnaround stories in college football — hello, Indiana and Vanderbilt — but hello, Presbyterian. In their first 16 years in FCS, the Blue Hose averaged 2.8 wins per season and won more than four games once. They were known primarily for hiring the Never Punts guy in 2021, and they went 1-10 in 2022, Steve Englehart’s first year in charge. But they won their last four games of 2024, three by blowouts, to jump to 6-6 and 85th in FCS SP+.

Seven games into 2025, Englehart’s team is unbeaten and up to 16th! They’re outscoring opponents by an average of 41-14. From quarterback Collin Hurst to a secondary that has picked off 10 passes, they have no obvious weaknesses, and they’re charging toward their first FCS playoff bid. This one could be tricky, though, because Dayton is up to 31st in SP+. Last week’s tight loss to Butler ended a five-game winning streak, but the Flyers are allowing only 16.1 points per game.

SP+ projection: Presbyterian by 4.9.

Division II: No. 18 Grand Valley State at No. 1 Ferris State (1 p.m., FloCollege). Always make room for the Anchor-Bone Classic! Top-ranked Ferris State looks as good as ever despite having lost quarterback Trinidad Chambliss (Ole Miss) and several other offensive stars to high-level FBS rosters. Redshirt freshman quarterback Wyatt Bower is posting even better numbers than Chambliss did, as the assembly line keeps cranking out talent. GVSU, however, needs this one. The Lakers are 4-2 after an upset loss to Saginaw Valley State last week, and their playoff résumé might not withstand another defeat.

SP+ projection: Ferris State by 12.9.

Division III: No. 8 Wisconsin-Platteville at No. 9 Wisconsin-Whitewater (2 p.m., local streaming). Three weeks into my favorite small-school conference title race — D-III’s Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference — we have a glorious six-team logjam at 2-1. No. 12 Wisconsin-La Crosse hosts No. 24 Wisconsin-Oshkosh in one matchup of 2-1 teams, but the big one’s in Whitewater, Wisconsin, where two top-five defenses, per SP+, will likely dictate one of the sport’s most physical games at any level.

SP+ projection: UWW by 4.1.

It is way too early to make any definitive conclusions about the 2025-26 NHL season.

But then again, it’s the perfect time to celebrate some small-sample superstars.

As part of this week’s new edition of the ESPN NHL Power Rankings, we’ve identified a player on each team that has excelled way beyond expectation thus far.

How we rank: A panel of ESPN hockey commentators, analysts, reporters and editors sends in a 1-32 poll based on the games through Wednesday, which generates our list.

Note: Previous ranking for each team refers to the previous edition, published Oct. 17. Points percentages are through Thursday’s games; other stats are through Wednesday’s games, unless otherwise noted.

Previous ranking: 3
Points percentage: 81.3%

Scott Wedgewood. The 33-year-old journeyman netminder had backstopped five different clubs since his debut in 2015-16. Are we witnessing a breakout a decade later? Wedgewood started the season 5-0-2, generating a 1.84 goals-against average and .927 save percentage, helping the Avs roll to the top of the standings.

Next seven days: @ BOS (Oct. 25), @ NJ (Oct. 26), vs. NJ (Oct. 28)

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Previous ranking: 6
Points percentage: 85.7%

Jack Eichel. Eichel has many accomplishments in his career, but has yet to hit the 100-point benchmark in a single season, coming closest in 2024-25 with 94. The NHL’s current scoring leader had 16 through seven games, which is a 187-point pace; it’s unlikely he hits that lofty mark, but triple digits does seem in play.

Next seven days: @ FLA (Oct. 25), @ TB (Oct. 26), @ CAR (Oct. 28)

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Previous ranking: 1
Points percentage: 85.7%

Seth Jarvis. The 23-year-old already made a name for himself with back-to-back 30-goal seasons and a strong showing at the 4 Nations Face-Off. Does he have another gear? He scored nine points through six games (including six goals).

Next seven days: @ DAL (Oct. 25), vs. VGK (Oct. 28), vs. NYI (Oct. 30)

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Previous ranking: 11
Points percentage: 85.7%

Jake Allen. With all due respect to Jesper Bratt (with a team-high 11 points through seven games) and Jack Hughes (who led the team to a win against the Maple Leafs with a hat trick), the nod goes to goaltender Allen. He is 3-0-0 thus far this season, with a .931 save percentage (his career mark is .908) and 1.91 goals-against average (compared to 2.75 for his career).

Next seven days: vs. SJ (Oct. 24), vs. COL (Oct. 26), @ COL (Oct. 28), @ SJ (Oct. 30)

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Previous ranking: 12
Points percentage: 71.4%

Mark Scheifele. The Jets’ top-line center has reached double digits in goals every season since 2013-14, topping out at 42 in 2022-23. Is this the season he gets 50? With seven through six games, he’s off to quite the start.

Next seven days: vs. CGY (Oct. 24), vs. UTA (Oct. 26), @ MIN (Oct. 28), vs. CHI (Oct. 30)

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Previous ranking: 7
Points percentage: 71.4%

Tom Wilson. Certainly known more for his truculence and intimidation than a deft scoring touch, the 31-year-old winger has 10 points to his name through seven games. Perhaps more surprisingly, he has just two penalty minutes in that same span!

Next seven days: @ CBJ (Oct. 24), vs. OTT (Oct. 25), @ DAL (Oct. 28)

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Previous ranking: 9
Points percentage: 62.5%

Emmitt Finnie. Has a new entrant entered the Calder Trophy chat? A seventh-round pick (No. 201 overall) in 2023, Finnie has been riding shotgun on the Wings’ top line with Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond this season. So far, so good, as he’s registered six points through the first seven games.

Next seven days: vs. STL (Oct. 25), @ STL (Oct. 28), @ LA (Oct. 30)

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Previous ranking: 8
Points percentage: 66.7%

Jakub Dobes. All honor to captain Nick Suzuki, who has 11 points through eight games, but the lean goes to Dobes, who won his first four starts while generating a .950 save percentage and 1.47 goals-against average.

Next seven days: @ VAN (Oct. 25), @ SEA (Oct. 28)

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Previous ranking: 24
Points percentage: 75%

Nick Schmaltz. For the Mammoth to earn a playoff spot out of the brutal Central Division, they’ll need everyone firing on all cylinders — and some breakout performances too. Schmaltz’s start certainly fits into the latter category, as his 10 points through seven games has him on pace for well over 100, which would shatter his career-best mark of 63 he set last season.

Next seven days: @ MIN (Oct. 25), @ WPG (Oct. 26), @ EDM (Oct. 28)

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Previous ranking: 21
Points percentage: 754%

Justin Brazeau. Many believed that the 2025-26 season was going to go similarly to the 2024-25 campaign, and that the Penguins would elect to trade away veterans in exchange for picks and prospects to help the rebuild. Instead, they were in second place in the Metro Division through seven games, and Brazeau — with a previous single-season career high of 22 points — already has eight points in those seven contests.

Next seven days: vs. CBJ (Oct. 25), vs. STL (Oct. 27), @ PHI (Oct. 28), @ MIN (Oct. 30)

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Previous ranking: 5
Points percentage: 44.4%

Brad Marchand. Now in his 18th NHL season, Marchand has been many things throughout his career. Rarely is he a point-per-game player, a feat he last eclipsed in the late 2010s and early 2020s. But through eight games, he’s right on that pace, with three goals and five assists.

Next seven days: vs. VGK (Oct. 25), vs. ANA (Oct. 28)

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Previous ranking: 13
Points percentage: 50%

William Nylander. The 29-year-old winger has been a steady source of production throughout his Leafs tenure, but has never scored triple-digit points. Is this the season that changes? With 13 through seven games, he’s well ahead of that pace.

Next seven days: @ BUF (Oct. 24), vs. BUF (Oct. 25), vs. CGY (Oct. 28), @ CBJ (Oct. 29)

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Previous ranking: 15
Points percentage: 50%

Jimmy Snuggerud. The Blues haven’t gotten off to the start they’d envisioned, but rookie winger Snuggerud has been every bit as good as expected. If he continues to score goals at this pace, he’s certain to earn a sizable portion of Calder Trophy votes.

Next seven days: @ DET (Oct. 25), @ PIT (Oct. 27), vs. DET (Oct. 28), vs. VAN (Oct. 30)

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Previous ranking: 22
Points percentage: 62.5%

Spencer Knight. Honorable mention here to the Blackhawks’ dynamic young duo of Connor Bedard and Frank Nazar, both of whom scored seven points through seven games. We’re giving the nod to Knight, who came over in the Seth Jones trade last season and looks every bit like a future franchise netminder in the small sample of 2025-26: through five games, he’s generated a .937 save percentage and 1.96 goals-against average.

Next seven days: vs. LA (Oct. 26), vs. OTT (Oct. 28), @ WPG (Oct. 30)

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Previous ranking: 4
Points percentage: 56.3%

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. The longest-tenured member of the Oilers, the Nuge’s current career high in points is 104, a mark he hit in 2022-23. Through seven games, he’s at seven points, on pace for 82, which would be the second most in his career.

Next seven days: @ SEA (Oct. 25), @ VAN (Oct. 26), vs. UTA (Oct. 28), vs. NYR (Oct. 30)

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Previous ranking: 25
Points percentage: 50%

Dan Vladar. For a franchise which has had a Sisyphean pursuit of goaltending excellence for decades, might they have found it in the 28-year-old Vladar? Through four starts, the Czech native has gone 3-1-0, with a .929 save percentage and 1.75 goals-against average.

Next seven days: vs. NYI (Oct. 25), vs. PIT (Oct. 28), vs. NSH (Oct. 30)

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Previous ranking: 14
Points percentage: 62.5%

Jaden Schwartz. Schwartz has never been known as a high-scoring forward — his career high of 63 was set back in 2014-15. But his five points through seven games are tied for the team lead as Seattle is shockingly in playoff position midway through the first month.

Next seven days: vs. EDM (Oct. 25), vs. MTL (Oct. 28)

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Previous ranking: 28
Points percentage: 50%

Thatcher Demko. Perhaps the Canucks’ spot in the standings is a mild surprise. But if Demko keeps playing as he started — 3-1-0, with a .922 save percentage and 2.28 goals-against average — it’ll provide the foundation for a real contender, and potentially get him on the U.S. Olympic team too.

Next seven days: vs. MTL (Oct. 25), vs. EDM (Oct. 26), vs. NYR (Oct. 28), @ STL (Oct. 30)

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Previous ranking: 17
Points percentage: 64.3%

Beckett Sennecke. Leo Carlsson and Mason McTavish are also off to hot starts, but that was expected. The surprise of the forward group thus far is Sennecke, the No. 3 pick of the 2024 draft who has five points through six games, skating on the second line and second power-play unit.

Next seven days: @ TB (Oct. 25), @ FLA (Oct. 28)

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Previous ranking: 2
Points percentage: 50%

Thomas Harley. The Stars have a quartet of skaters who registered six points through the club’s first six games: Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, Wyatt Johnston and Harley. The three forwards have approached or eclipsed a point-per-game pace for a full season previously; if Harley keeps this pace, he’ll shatter his single-season mark of 50, set in 2024-25.

Next seven days: vs. CAR (Oct. 25), @ NSH (Oct. 26), vs. WSH (Oct. 28), @ TB (Oct. 30)

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Previous ranking: 16
Points percentage: 43.8%

Matt Boldy. Two Wild skaters scored five goals through the club’s first eight games. One of them signed a $17 million average annual value contract extension this preseason that kicks in in 2026-27, while the other will be making $10 million less per season on his through 2029-30. So while Kirill Kaprizov‘s start is great, we give the nod to Boldy.

Next seven days: vs. UTA (Oct. 25), vs. SJ (Oct. 26), vs. WPG (Oct. 28), vs. PIT (Oct. 30)

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Previous ranking: 18
Points percentage: 44.4%

Igor Shesterkin. By season’s end, the Rangers may well be among the NHL’s best. The goal scoring has lagged thus far, but the goal prevention has been top-notch thanks to Shesterkin, who has thus far generated a .957 save percentage and 1.17 goals-against average; and yet, he started 2-3-1 thanks to a lack of goal support.

Next seven days: @ CGY (Oct. 26), @ VAN (Oct. 28), @ EDM (Oct. 30)

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Previous ranking: 26
Points percentage: 50%

Kirill Marchenko. Marchenko tied for the team lead in goals last season, with 31, and appears to be motivated to best that total in 2025-26. Through six games, he has five goals, including a hat trick against the Wild back on Oct. 11.

Next seven days: vs. WSH (Oct. 24), @ PIT (Oct. 25), @ BUF (Oct. 28), vs. TOR (Oct. 29)

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Previous ranking: 30
Points percentage: 57.1%

Matthew Schaefer. The Islanders thought they might have landed a special player with the first overall pick in the 2025 draft. Little did they know that 18-year-old Schaefer would be leading all rookies in scoring with seven points through six games, and leading his own team in average ice time, with 22:06 per game.

Next seven days: @ PHI (Oct. 25), @ BOS (Oct. 28), @ CAR (Oct. 30)

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Previous ranking: 23
Points percentage: 50%

Adrian Kempe. The start of the 2025-26 campaign hasn’t gone as well as planned for the Kings, but Kempe has kept the fire burning a bit. Through seven games, he was on pace for 105 points, which would shatter his career-best mark of 75, set in 2023-24.

Next seven days: @ NSH (Oct. 25), @ CHI (Oct. 26), @ SJ (Oct. 28), vs. DET (Oct. 30)

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Previous ranking: 20
Points percentage: 50%

Roman Josi. As the Predators hope to reverse course from last season’s debacle, a key component will be Norris Trophy-caliber play from blueliner Josi. Skating 24:56 per contest and leading the team with five points through seven games, he’s doing his part.

Next seven days: vs. LA (Oct. 25), vs. DAL (Oct. 26), vs. TB (Oct. 28), @ PHI (Oct. 30)

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Previous ranking: 32
Points percentage: 42.9%

Zach Benson. Still just 20 years old, this is Benson’s third season after making the NHL right after being drafted 13th overall in 2023. But, are we witnessing his breakout? He has six points through four games, playing in all-situations for the Sabres.

Next seven days: vs. TOR (Oct. 24), @ TOR (Oct. 25), vs. CBJ (Oct. 28), @ BOS (Oct. 30)

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Previous ranking: 10
Points percentage: 33.3%

Pavel Zacha. If the Bruins’ season goes sideways, we may hear a lot of buzz on Zacha being a trade target. But if he keeps performing the way he has — he maintained a point-per-game pace through the first eight contests — the second-line anchor will be a big reason why the B’s remain at least somewhat competitive.

Next seven days: vs. COL (Oct. 25), @ OTT (Oct. 27), vs. NYI (Oct. 28), vs. BUF (Oct. 30)

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Previous ranking: 27
Points percentage: 43.8%

Shane Pinto. With captain Brady Tkachuk out injured, the Senators need everyone to step up. Pinto, the 24-year-old Long Island native, has answered the call best, with seven goals through seven games.

Next seven days: @ WSH (Oct. 25), vs. BOS (Oct. 27), @ CHI (Oct. 28), vs. CGY (Oct. 30)

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Previous ranking: 19
Points percentage: 28.6%

Anthony Cirelli. A player generally considered more in the mold of 200-foot pivots like Patrice Bergeron and Aleksander Barkov, Cirelli’s three goals through six games put him well ahead of his career-best pace of 27, set last season.

Next seven days: vs. ANA (Oct. 25), vs. VGK (Oct. 26), @ NSH (Oct. 28), vs. DAL (Oct. 30)

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Previous ranking: 31
Points percentage: 18.8%

Nazem Kadri. It’s a bit of a stretch to find a small-sample “star” for the Flames, so we’ll go with their current leading scorer, with four assists through eight games. Kadri is in the fourth of seven seasons on his current deal, but could entice teams in need of depth and toughness down the middle ahead of the trade deadline.

Next seven days: @ WPG (Oct. 24), vs. NYR (Oct. 26), @ TOR (Oct. 28), @ OTT (Oct. 30)

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Previous ranking: 29
Points percentage: 28.6%

Dmitry Orlov. The positive ascent for the franchise and its young core group continues. But will this also be a breakout campaign at age 34 for Orlov? The veteran blueliner — who made his debut when Macklin Celebrini was five years old — is on pace to eclipse 60 points, which would shatter a career high of 36 he tallied when he played on a team with Alex Ovechkin.

Next seven days: @ NJ (Oct. 24), @ MIN (Oct. 26), vs. LA (Oct. 28), vs. NJ (Oct. 30)

Few teams in NHL history have proved themselves in the face of their doubters more than the Florida Panthers of the past few seasons.

After getting humiliated as a Presidents’ Trophy winner in 2022 — swept by the Tampa Bay Lightning as their historic offense was mostly silenced — Florida rebuilt its identity under Bill Zito and Paul Maurice, traded for toughness with Matthew Tkachuk, leaned into defense and the goaltending of Sergei Bobrovsky, and turned those lessons into a championship blueprint: three straight Stanley Cup Final appearances, back-to-back titles and a bona fide dynasty.

But when one team proves so much, it doesn’t leave much room for others to do the same. So in many ways, this NHL season will be defined by the teams outside of South Florida that need to do a lot of proving of their own.

To help sort out which clubs have the most on the line in this prove-it 2025-26 season, we grouped 13 of them into five categories of teams with work to do and boxes to check. These range from longtime contenders still knocking on the door to hyped up-and-comers, possibly-past-their-prime powers and franchises whose fans would simply love them to prove they can make the playoffs every so often.

The common thread for all is that they have to change the story around their team, just like Florida had to do a few years ago. Let’s unpack each — and see who’s under the most pressure to get the job done this season.

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The now-or-nevers

We’ve written about it here before, but the primary victims of Florida’s success in recent seasons have been the teams that repeatedly came close to a title but couldn’t break through. So this group is all about those that are seeking to prove they can finally make the championship leap — and especially those with a ticking clock on how long they can keep trying, and failing, to turn their potential into a parade.

Chief among this type of team? Clearly the Edmonton Oilers, who finally skated for the Cup for the first time in the Connor McDavid–Leon Draisaitl era in 2024 after never previously advancing further than being swept in the conference finals. But back-to-back losses to Florida have raised the question of whether they can ever truly get over the hump.

The main things to prove might be whether the returning tandem of Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard can provide better goaltending than the .866 SV% they collectively posted in last season’s Final — and if this season’s offense, bolstered by the additions of Jack Roslovic and Andrew Mangiapane, can score enough for it not to matter.

Though McDavid recently inked a contract extension, it only runs through 2027-28, so the Oilers’ window to compete still has a short shelf life.

And then there are the Carolina Hurricanes and Dallas Stars, who are well past the point where they need to at least break through to the Final, if not win the Cup. The two teams have combined to win an incredible 62 playoff games (32 for Dallas, 30 for Carolina) since 2022 without a single Stanley Cup Final appearance to show for it. No other team in the league had more such wins than the New York Rangers‘ 23.

For Carolina, the team must demonstrate that its strategy of dominating possession — the Hurricanes have led the NHL’s offensive zone time-tracking metric every year it has existed — isn’t destined to forever be stonewalled by an elite goalie when the team runs up against one in the playoffs.

Dallas needs to prove that all the offseason moves it made (including moving on from coach Peter DeBoer to Glen Gulutzan) were necessary to get this team to the next level.

Dallas is younger, whereas Carolina has more of its core locked up longer, but both teams can feel the weight of time, and expectations, demanding a Finals run … maybe even against one another.

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The snakebit histories

Now we get to the teams that haven’t even made it far enough to qualify as a now-or-never breakthrough candidate. These teams have had plenty of regular-season success, but they perpetually lose in Round 1 of the playoffs — or, on the odd occasion, win a series before a big letdown in the next round.

And over the past handful of seasons, nobody fits this mold more than the Toronto Maple Leafs and Winnipeg Jets.

Since 2018-19, Toronto and Winnipeg rank third and seventh in total standings points, respectively, and yet they are the only members of the top eight on that list to fail to win 40 playoff games in that span — and neither is even close to that mark. (Neither has 30 wins, much less 40.)

The Leafs‘ history of choking in the playoffs is extensive and well-documented. Before 2023, this team hadn’t so much as won a single postseason series since 2004, and the Leafs still haven’t reached the conference finals since 2002 — to go with zero Cups since 1967, the final year of the NHL’s Original Six era.

As part of that, they own an eight-game losing streak in winner-take-all playoff games, the second-longest such skid in hockey history. There are micro-level things Toronto also needs to convince us about, such as offensive life after Mitch Marner (so far, so good) and if it can ever get the playoff goaltending it needs. But the main thing to prove is that the Leafs can overcome the ghosts of this franchise’s many past failures.

Winnipeg‘s playoff struggles feel less biblical but are no better in the aggregate. After winning two total series in its first go-round — before the franchise relocated to Arizona — the version that rose from the ashes of the Atlanta Thrashers made a conference finals run in 2018 but has advanced to the second round only twice since then.

Last season was supposed to change all that, but the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Jets barely beat the Blues in Round 1 and were then knocked off by the Stars as league MVP Connor Hellebuyck was outplayed by Jake Oettinger in net. Now the Jets have to show that their ascendance last season was no fluke, that they can be a playoff team in addition to a regular-season one, and that Hellebuyck can handle the pressure after three straight terrible postseason performances.

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The hype trains

This is the place for those teams with young, exciting talent that haven’t exactly proved what they can do yet. They’re fun, marketable and full of promise — but as so many of the league’s up-and-coming squads of the past can tell you, promise alone lasts only so long.

Within this group, the New Jersey Devils stand out a bit because they have been riding the hype train a little longer than the other two teams. The 2022-23 Devils appeared to announce themselves early as the league’s next big thing behind a roster that ranked fourth on offense, eighth on defense … and third youngest in average age.

But electric center Jack Hughes missed parts of the next two seasons, the team regressed and fired its coach, and the Devils only slightly reclaimed their prior potential last season. The 2025-26 version is off to a good start, but New Jersey needs to win some playoff series to get back to where we assumed it would be by now.

As for the Montreal Canadiens and Chicago Blackhawks, both have started the season fairly strong with rosters that rank 1-2 in the NHL in youngest average age.

Along with the Devils, the Canadiens were anticipated to be one of the league’s most improved teams this season, building on their playoff return a season ago with a young core that is now pretty well locked in after defenseman Lane Hutson‘s recent contract extension.

Now the job for Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Noah Dobson, Hutson & Co. is to see how much better they can continue to get this season — and whether they’ll belong in the Cup-contending conversation by the spring.

The Blackhawks are further from that goal than the Canadiens, but new coach Jeff Blashill has them playing much better than they did a season ago. Connor Bedard continues to make progress, and Frank Nazar has been an early-season star, while the Blackhawks appear to be a bit better on the goal-prevention side as well.

Chicago must prove that last season was simply a disappointing speed bump along its road to rebuilding a new winner with Bedard as the centerpiece.

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The do-overs

Last season, the hype machine broke down for a number of teams that were expected to be Cup contenders, and perhaps no teams were bigger offenders than this trio. Each is out to show that 2024-25 was a fluke and it deserves another shot in 2025-26.

The New York Rangers‘ collapse might have been the most jarring. A team that had finished top seven in fewest goals allowed per game for three straight seasons suddenly ranked 19th, allowed the sixth-most shots per game and got a combined .896 SV% from Jonathan Quick and Igor Shesterkin, who couldn’t paper over their issues anymore. The Jacob Trouba trade fractured the locker room, the power play cratered and a team that had made the Eastern Conference finals in 2024 unraveled far faster than anyone expected.

After making even more offseason changes — out were Peter Laviolette, Chris Kreider and K’Andre Miller; in were Mike Sullivan and Vladislav Gavrikov — the remade Rangers must get back to their previous business.

The Boston Bruins‘ fall was even steeper by the numbers. In fact, the Bruins saw the largest year-over-year drop in goal differential of any team (minus-1.13 goals per game) after transitioning from what was once a record-breaking veteran core to the league’s eighth-youngest lineup. What was supposed to be a smooth handoff turned into a full-scale identity crisis when Boston’s seven-year streak of top-five scoring finishes snapped to the tune of a No. 26 ranking on that side of the ice in 2024-25.

Now the remaining nucleus of David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy and Jeremy Swayman has to prove that it, too, can carry an era of Bruins hockey the same way Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron, David Krejčí, Zdeno Chara, Tuukka Rask, Torey Krug and others did in the past.

And then there were the Nashville Predators, whose 68-point season represented a staggering 31.5-point shortfall versus their preseason Vegas projection — the biggest miss in the NHL. What once looked like a loaded Preds roster with scoring, depth and Juuse Saros in net instead seemed disjointed from the start and never found success at either end.

Most of the group that was supposed to win last season is back now, and some are bouncing back nicely. Others, however, are like Steven Stamkos, Brady Skjei and Filip Forsberg — from whom Nashville still needs more bang for the salary-cap bucks being spent.

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The drought-enders

When the Ottawa Senators finally made the playoffs last season, for the first time since going to the 2017 Eastern Conference finals, they ended what was tied for the NHL’s seventh-longest postseason drought of all time.

However, Ottawa was not the only franchise with a playoff-less streak that long — or even longer — and its achievement just turned up the pressure on the other two teams in that category to make their own postseason returns.

First, the Buffalo Sabres: Their playoff drought is now an NHL-record 14 seasons long — four more than the second-longest in league history — and the organization is well past the territory where incremental improvements suffice anymore. The youngest current Sabre, Zach Benson, was still in kindergarten the last time Buffalo played a postseason game, and zero players on this season’s roster were in the NHL when the drought began.

After a modestly positive goal differential in 2023-24, Buffalo backslid to minus-22 last season, and that regression has seemed to carry over to 2025-26 thus far. The Sabres’ low playoff odds already don’t paint a pretty picture, but they have to prove they can end this streak one of these years.

Finally, there are the Detroit Red Wings, whose own nine-season drought is not too far off from Buffalo’s — and completely uncharacteristic for one of hockey’s most storied franchises. The “Yzer-plan” was designed to restore the glory years, but Detroit has ranked better than 24th in goal differential just once during the skid (2023-24) and gave back all of those gains last season.

The good news in Hockeytown is that the 2025-26 team has started strong, bringing its playoff odds up above a coin flip. But Detroit has been down this early-season path before, only to collapse down the stretch, so the Wings hanging on to their playoff position might be the biggest prove-it on our list.

Both clubs have stockpiled young talent and patience in equal measure, but the next step remains to end their droughts and prove the long rebuilds were worth the wait.