Projecting the NHL’s leap-forward players for 2025-26, led by Matty Beniers
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Rachel Kryshak
The NHL’s preseason is nearly done, and it is time to prognosticate who will take a leap forward this season in terms of role and production.
Last season, Dylan Guenther and Matthew Knies made this list and saw major increases in role and production. A few others who did not pop last season for various reasons, find themselves on the list ahead of 2025-26.
As is tradition, a “breakout” does not always mean offensive production. It can mean an elevated role at even strength, more special teams time, and exposure to tougher matchups. Many of the players on this list are expected to see major role increases and a few of them should break out in the traditional sense.
The most obvious player to include on this list.
After two seasons below seemingly impossible expectations, it feels like this is finally Bedard’s year. A reminder that Nathan Mackinnon did not become the rhinoceros on skates we know today until his fifth NHL season, so give the much smaller Bedard a chance.
Not that the preseason is always an indicator of anything, but Bedard’s shot and elite vision were on display consistently in September. If he stays healthy, he should score more than a point per game. If he wants to make the Olympic team, he’ll need to be on an 85- to 90-point pace when the roster is named, which is attainable for someone with his skill set.
Everyone has seen the brilliance of Bedard when he’s at the top of his game. Through two years, it hasn’t been consistent. He’ll likely play more than 20 minutes every game, and should generate between three to four shots per game. His shooting percentage should start to climb, which is something seen often with players who possess elite shots like Bedard. Should Bedard shoot at 13% on 270 shots, he would score 35 goals, a major uptick from his 22- and 23-goal campaigns.
He needs more opportunities to make magic happen, both of his own creation and by way of the situations he is deployed in. It’s reasonable to suggest he ends with 32 goals and 55 assists this season, which puts him at 87 points.
The 6-5, 225-pound center is going to be a key piece for the Kings this season, as he prepares to step into the top-line pivot role when Anze Kopitar retires at the end of the season.
Kopitar is still a tremendous player, but the Kings will need to put Byfield in tough minutes to further develop his game on both sides of the puck. Byfield has all the makings of a player who can score 80 points and be reliable defensively. He’s going to get more opportunities on the power play, and his offensive game at even strength started to take off last season.
After back-to-back seasons of point totals in the mid-50s, expect Byfield to use his speed, strength and skill to physically dominate his shifts. There’s a real pathway to a 30-goal, 45-assist season for him as he takes a more significant role in the Kings’ top six.
The first-line center for the Kraken is one of the better two-way players in the NHL at the young age of 22. Beniers is reliable in all situations, a rarity for players under 25. Beniers has not found the next step offensively in the NHL, and it is something Seattle desperately needs.
From a true breakout perspective, this could be the year Beniers finds himself firmly in the Selke Trophy conversation for the NHL’s best defensive forward. The winners are usually accompanied by offensive production (not that they should be), and Beniers will see time on both special team units to make an impact.
Incoming Kraken coach Lane Lambert wants the penalty kill to be aggressive, and will encourage his players to generate scoring chances when the opportunity arises. That, combined with top-line minutes and top power-play reps should allow Beniers the opportunity to increase his offensive output.
Beniers’ rookie campaign saw him produce 57 points in a second-line role. He’s taking tougher matchups on the top line, and if he can notch more than 60 points while effectively shutting down the opponent’s best, he’ll be in the Selke conversation. That’s a major step forward for a player at this point in his development.
LW, Buffalo Sabres
A promotion to the top line with Tage Thompson and Josh Norris is all that is needed for Benson to land on the list. Whether he stays there — or plays second-line center to allow for Ryan McLeod to thrive in the third-line role — Benson is primed for a major uptick in every statistical category.
After a 28-point campaign last season where he averaged under 15 minutes of ice time per game, he’s likely to play close to 19 minutes per contest this season. He’ll also get opportunities on the power play, and be in a position to play with better players than in prior campaigns.
When factoring in everything, there is a distinct possibility that the highly skilled youngster will double his offensive production from last season and score between 55 and 60 points. He will play more difficult minutes because of his matchups against top defenders, but Benson’s ability to create offense is high-end, and he should thrive with more talented linemates, and more time spent in the offensive zone.
The Sabres are counting on him this season, so scoring around 22 goals and 35 assists is within reach for the 2023 first-round pick.
With Nikolaj Ehlers signing with Carolina, Perfetti is finally in line to get a major upgrade in offensive opportunity. Combine that with his standout performance for Winnipeg in the playoffs, there is no defensible reason for keeping him off the top power play and from giving him consistent minutes in the top six.
With increased opportunity at even strength and special teams, there is every reason to believe Perfetti could be a 70-point player in 2025-2026. Increasing his ice time from 15 to 17 minutes on a per-game basis will lead to an increase in shooting opportunities. Should Perfetti match his shooting percentage from the last two seasons, he should notch between 25 and 30 goals. Increased power-play time will naturally increase his offensive production.
It is finally Perfetti time in Winnipeg, and he is well prepared to take this well-earned opportunity and run with it.
The diminutive center saw his opportunity and thus, his production increase after the trade from Dallas to Carolina.
The Canes deployed Stankoven as their second-line center, and were rewarded for it. As is the case with Perfetti, Stankoven is likely to see 17 minutes of ice time per game this season, adding two minutes to last season’s average. Whether his is flanked by Andrei Svechnikov or Nikolaj Ehlers on his left, he’s going to have a highly skilled player capable of scoring many points.
Stankoven’s playmaking ability could be what elevates Svechnikov to that surge in goal production for which many have been waiting. Should he play with Ehlers, both are dual-threat offensive players, and Stankoven has the skill to finish the chances that Ehlers creates.
Regardless of who he plays with, an upgrade in skill set and increased opportunity should lead to increased production for the young Canes center.
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Jesse Rogers
CHICAGO — Cubs manager Craig Counsell defended his decision to leave lefty Shota Imanaga in the game to face righty Manny Machado in the fifth inning of the San Diego Padres‘ victory in Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series on Wednesday.
Machado hit a first pitch splitter for a two-run home run, extending the Padres’ lead to 3-0, the eventual final score.
A deciding Game 3 will be at Wrigley Field on Thursday.
“The results suggest that we should have done something different,” Counsell said after the loss. “Really just confidence in Shota, plain and simple there. I thought he was pitching well. I thought he was throwing the ball really well and, unfortunately, he made a mistake.”
The decision came after Fernando Tatis Jr. walked and then took second on Luis Arraez‘s sacrifice bunt. That created an open base. Counsell said he considered walking Machado but decided to pitch to him instead.
“Walking him wasn’t in my head,” Imanaga said through an interpreter. “That splitter was meant for down in the zone.”
Counsell had righty Mike Soroka ready, but he decided against going to him. It was a curious move, considering the Cubs used an opener to start Game 2, purposely allowing Imanaga to avoid facing Tatis and Machado in the first inning.
That wasn’t the case in the fifth.
“I don’t put a manager’s cap on,” Machado said when asked if he was surprised that he got to face Imanaga in that situation. “I’m 0-for-6 at that point. So yeah, I’m not thinking about that. For myself, I was just thinking about trying to get to Imanaga.”
Said Padres manager Mike Shildt: “I’ve got my hands full with my own club. I can’t be thinking about anybody else’s strategy.”
The teams will play a winner-take-all Game 3 on Thursday. The Padres will start former Cubs pitcher Yu Darvish. Righty Jameson Taillon will take the hill for Chicago.
“I’m excited,” Taillon said. “As [Game 2] got going there, I started to get excited for tomorrow. You do a lot of work throughout the season for big moments. I’m looking forward to it.”
NEW YORK — Jazz Chisholm Jr. zipped all the way home from first base on Austin Wells‘ tiebreaking single in the eighth inning, and the New York Yankees extended their season Wednesday night with a 4-3 victory over the Boston Red Sox in Game 2 of their AL Wild Card Series.
Unhappy he was left out of the starting lineup in the opener, Chisholm also made a critical defensive play at second base that helped the Yankees send the best-of-three playoff to a decisive Game 3 on Thursday night in the Bronx.
“What a game. I mean, it has been two great games, these first two,” New York manager Aaron Boone said. “A lot of big plays on both sides.”
In the latest chapter of baseball’s most storied rivalry, the winner advances to face AL East champion Toronto in a best-of-five division series beginning Saturday. It will be the fourth winner-take-all postseason game between the Yankees and Red Sox, and the first since the 2021 AL wild card, a one-game format won by Boston.
“Should be a fun night,” Red Sox manager Alex Cora said.
Ben Rice hit an early two-run homer and Aaron Judge had an RBI single for the Yankees, who received three innings of scoreless relief from their shaky bullpen after starter Carlos Rodón put the first two batters on in the seventh.
Devin Williams worked a one-hit eighth for the win, and David Bednar got three outs for his first postseason save. Judge pumped his fist when he caught Ceddanne Rafaela‘s fly ball on the right-field warning track to end it.
Trevor Story homered and drove in all three runs for the Red Sox, who won the series opener 3-1 on Tuesday night behind ace lefty Garrett Crochet.
With the score tied in the seventh, Chisholm saved a run with a diving stop of an infield single by pinch hitter Masataka Yoshida.
“Unbelievable play,” Rice said. “That’s what you are going to get from him — just a guy who will give 110% every play.”
Story then flied out with the bases loaded to the edge of the center-field warning track to end the inning, and fired-up reliever Fernando Cruz waved his arms wildly to pump up the crowd.
“I almost got out of his way,” Boone said, drawing laughs. “There’s a passion that he does his job with, and it spilled over a little bit tonight. I am glad it was the end of his evening at that point.”
Said Rice: “I felt like I could see every vein popping out of his head.”
Chisholm also made a tough play to start an inning-ending double play with two on in the third — the first of three timely double plays turned by the Yankees.
“He’s a game-changer,” Judge said. “He showed up at the park today and had the biggest plays for us.”
There were two outs in the eighth when Chisholm drew a walk from losing pitcher Garrett Whitlock. Chisholm was running on a full-count pitch when Wells pulled a line drive that landed just inside the right-field line and caromed off the low retaining wall in foul territory.
Right fielder Nate Eaton made a strong, accurate throw to the plate, but the speedy Chisholm beat it with a headfirst slide as Wells pumped his arms at first base.
“Any ball that an outfielder moves to his left or right, I have to score, in my head,” Chisholm said. “That’s all I was thinking.”
With the Yankees threatening in the third, Boston manager Alex Cora lifted starter Brayan Bello from his first postseason outing and handed the game to a parade of relievers who held New York in check until the eighth.
Hard-throwing rookie Cam Schlittler (4-3, 2.96 ERA) will start Game 3 for New York, and rookie left-hander Connelly Early (1-2, 2.33 ERA) will pitch for Boston in place of injured Lucas Giolito. It will be the second winner-take-all game in MLB postseason history in which both starting pitchers are rookies.
Schlittler, 24, grew up in Boston, where he attended Northeastern University, but has said he always wanted to play for the Yankees. Early has made four major league starts since his debut on Sept. 9.
Information from The Associated Press and ESPN Research was used in this report.
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