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We are in the endgame. Nearly exactly two years since the Hamas attacks of 7 October 2023, it looks like we are on the brink of a breakthrough.

The diplomacy of the past 12 hours has been head-spinning and uniquely Trumpian. Assuming everything holds, this is Donald Trump‘s success. It is the consequence of his unorthodox style, his ability to call the shots and crucially his willingness to do so now.

The tragedy is that it could have happened many months ago. But that doesn’t make it any less significant a moment now.

Word came from Hamas late afternoon on Friday Washington time that the group had responded to Mr Trump’s 20-point plan for peace in Gaza, which he unveiled at the White House on Monday.

Donald Trump. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Donald Trump. Pic: Reuters

Within minutes, the US president had posted the Hamas response on his own social media. It was clear from the wording of the Hamas statement that it was by no means an unequivocal acceptance of the 20-point plan.

But then, via his press secretary, again on social media, a clear indication that the US president was reading the Hamas statement as an acceptance of his deal even though, in black and white, it falls short of that.

“President Trump responds to Hamas’ acceptance of his Peace Plan,” Karoline Leavitt wrote.

Hamas had basically said “yes, but” to Mr Trump’s 20-point plan, and yet intriguingly Mr Trump was choosing to take it as an acceptance of his plan.

Then, moments later, the president spelt it out, again on social media, and with game-changing demands – not for Hamas, but for Israel.

A remarkable statement

“Based on the Statement just issued by Hamas, I believe they are ready for a lasting PEACE. Israel must immediately stop the bombing of Gaza, so that we can get the Hostages out safely and quickly! Right now, it’s far too dangerous to do that. We are already in discussions on details to be worked out. This is not about Gaza alone, this is about long sought PEACE in the Middle East.”

This was a remarkable statement and represents a huge moment. Neither Mr Trump, nor Joe Biden before him, has ever asked this of Israel before. The American president was telling Israel to stop; to stand its military down and to bring this war to an end. Extraordinary.

Read more:
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Praise and fury for Trump’s Gaza peace deal

For the first time in this two-year war, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is in a corner. President Trump has put him there.

Mr Trump and his team know that the Hamas response does not yet commit to disarmament and it does not yet agree to fully disband – both conditions of the 20-point plan. But Hamas does commit to releasing all the hostages now. And for Mr Trump, who wants this over, that’s enough.

The word from Israel overnight is that Mr Netanyahu did not expect the US president to take this position because he sees the Hamas response as a rejection of the 20-point plan.

On Monday, Mr Netanyahu said Mr Trump was the best friend Israel had ever had. But Mr Trump is not an ideologue. He is pragmatic, he is a deal-maker, he wants to further his Abraham Accords, he wants to be a winner, and he wants the Nobel Peace Prize.

He can also see where the chips are falling. His 20-point plan has unanimous support across Europe and among Muslim majority countries, which all seem to accept that Hamas as an organisation is over.

Israeli attack on Hamas in Qatar was pivot point

Public opinion is also a factor. The number of Americans with an unfavourable view of Israel and its Gaza policy has been steadily rising.

President Trump’s own view of Mr Netanyahu’s Israel has also evolved. The two men have never actually been close. And the Israeli attack on Hamas negotiators in Qatar last month really angered Mr Trump and his advisors. They saw it as a clear undermining of the Gaza negotiations. It was a pivot point for Mr Trump.

The diplomacy behind the scenes, through the Qatari government mediators and others, has been intense, particularly this past week. The challenge has been to persuade the military wing of Hamas, in Gaza, to get to the position outlined in their statement.

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Witkoff ‘hopeful’ on Gaza plan

Mr Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, told me on Monday: “I am hopeful, I really am. All the stakeholders in this want to see it happen and the president believes it is going to happen and he is dug in.”

I was sceptical. Maybe I was wrong to be. Still, there are huge immediate challenges in the hours and days ahead.

But the overnight news that the Israeli Defence Forces have shifted to defensive operations is a huge development.

There is a genuine momentum for peace right now. This could be the moment.

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Trump’s Venezuela drug bust shows he’s either misinformed or has another motive

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Trump's Venezuela drug bust shows he's either misinformed or has another motive

The world’s largest aircraft carrier is steaming towards the Caribbean supported by the rest of its “carrier group” to add even more muscle to the US forces already threateningly close to Venezuela.

The question is simple – is this really all about President Trump‘s war on drugs in South America?

I doubt it. A sledgehammer to crack a nut isn’t even in it.

There are a few reasons to doubt the American government’s stated aim of wiping out these so-called “narco terrorist” gangs threatening the US from Venezuela, even after one takes out of the equation the sort of equipment the military is deploying – which isn’t what they would need for effective drug smuggling interdiction.

While the president acknowledges that the synthetic opioid fentanyl is a huge killer in the US (which it is) and is supplied by drug gangs (which it is), to blame Venezuela for fentanyl production is simply incorrect.

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Is Trump tackling cartels or trying to ‘control’ Venezuela?

Mexican cartels produce fentanyl with precursors largely supplied from China, and it is from Mexico – America’s neighbour – that the fentanyl is smuggled directly into the United States across its southern border.

Venezuela isn’t involved in this fentanyl business in any meaningful way, and I know this because I have reported from the Sinaloa cartel’s fentanyl production labs in Mexico.

The Mexican cartels are very proud of their business, and from my experience covering this story over the years, when the drugs cartels are proud of something, and it makes them a lot of money – which fentanyl does – they don’t share the market with anyone, and certainly not with Venezuela.

President Trump is right that Venezuela is now a large supplier of other illegal drugs, especially cocaine, but they come from countries like Colombia, Peru, and Bolivia, which are the largest producers of the coca leaf in the world (the coca leaf is what cocaine is made from).

The world's largest aircraft carrier USS Gerald R Ford. Pic: Reuters
Image:
The world’s largest aircraft carrier USS Gerald R Ford. Pic: Reuters

Read more:
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Survivors reported after boat strike
US destroys ‘drug smuggling submarine’

Venezuela, which borders Colombia, is largely a transit country to the Caribbean in the same way that Ecuador, which also borders Colombia, is a transit country to the Pacific.

Sailors work on a Venezuelan Navy patrol boat off the Caribbean coast. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Sailors work on a Venezuelan Navy patrol boat off the Caribbean coast. Pic: Reuters

Neither Venezuela nor Ecuador are significant drug producers.

The drugs enter Venezuela overland, primarily from Colombia, and then mainly leave the country from ports on the northern coast of the country – and these are the departure points of the boats the US government has recently targeted and destroyed, along with the crews on board.

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Hegseth: US forces strike ‘narco-terrorists’

President Trump claims these boats from Venezuela are heading to the United States, but in reality they are mainly heading to the nearby islands of Trinidad and Tobago, and from there they largely go to West Africa and Europe – mostly Spain and Portugal.

Drugs heading to America either pass through Mexico over the border into the US or are transported via the Pacific Ocean route through countries like Ecuador. In this instance, Venezuela isn’t involved.

Read more: Inside Pablo Escobar’s home city where drugs are readily available

It’s widely accepted the two most exported drugs from South America are cocaine and marijuana – and the volume of production is staggering.

But the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in the US says that synthetic opioids like fentanyl are responsible for most overdose deaths there – and fentanyl is not produced in South America, whatever the president says.

So one can only conclude he is either mistaken and misinformed, or he has another motive. I suspect it is the latter, and that regime change in Venezuela is top of the list.

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US accused of ‘inventing a war’ as it moves largest aircraft carrier to South America

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US ramps up 'drug boats' operation by sending in aircraft carrier to region

The US has announced it is sending an aircraft carrier to the waters off South America as it ramps up an operation to target alleged drug smuggling boats.

The Pentagon said in a statement that the USS Gerald R Ford would be deployed to the region, including the Caribbean Sea, to “bolster US capacity to detect, monitor, and disrupt illicit actors and activities that compromise the safety and prosperity of the United States homeland and our security in the Western Hemisphere”.

Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro told state media that the US was “inventing a new eternal war”.

The vessel is the US Navy’s largest aircraft carrier. It is currently deployed in the Mediterranean alongside three destroyers, and the group are expected to take around one week to make the journey.

There are already eight US Navy ships in the central and South American region, along with a nuclear-powered submarine, adding up to about 6,000 sailors and marines, according to officials.

It came as the US secretary of war claimed that six “narco-terrorists” had been killed in a strike on an alleged drug smuggling boat in the Caribbean Sea overnight.

A still from footage purporting to show the boat seconds before the airstrike,  posted by US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth on X
Image:
A still from footage purporting to show the boat seconds before the airstrike, posted by US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth on X

Pete Hegseth said his military had bombed a vessel which he claimed was operated by Tren de Aragua – a Venezuelan gang that was designated a terror group by Washington in February.

Writing on X, he claimed that the boat was involved in “illicit narcotics smuggling” and was transiting along a “known narco-trafficking route” when it was struck during the night.

All six men on board the boat, which was in international waters, were killed and no US forces were harmed, he said.

Ten vessels have now been bombed in recent weeks, killing more than 40 people.

Mr Hegseth added: “If you are a narco-terrorist smuggling drugs in our hemisphere, we will treat you like we treat al Qaeda. Day or NIGHT, we will map your networks, track your people, hunt you down, and kill you.”

While he did not provide any evidence that the vessel was carrying drugs, he did share a 20-second video that appeared to show a boat being hit by a projectile before exploding.

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Footage of a previous US strike on a suspected drugs boat earlier this week

Speaking during a White House news conference last week, Donald Trump argued that the campaign would help tackle the US’s opioid crisis.

“Every boat that we knock out, we save 25,000 American lives. So every time you see a boat, and you feel badly you say, ‘Wow, that’s rough’. It is rough, but if you lose three people and save 25,000 people,” he said.

Read more:
Survivors reported after boat strike
US destroys ‘drug smuggling submarine’

Analysis: Is the US about to invade Venezuela?

It’s a question that’s got more relevant – and more urgent – over the last 24 hours.

The US government has just deployed the world’s largest aircraft carrier and its associated battleships to the Caribbean, just off the coast of Venezuela.

So: what’s going on?

Well, on the face of it, it’s a drugs war. For weeks now, the Trump administration has been using the US military to “dismantle transnational criminal organisations and counter narco terrorism in the defence of the homeland”.

Basically: stopping the drugs supply into America.

Dealing with the demand might actually be more effective as a strategy, but that’s another story.

Donald Trump’s focus is to hit the supply countries and to hit them hard – and this is what that has looked like: drones and missiles taking out boats said to be carrying drugs from places like Venezuela into the US.

We can’t know for sure that these are drugs boats or if the people are guilty of anything, because the US government won’t tell us who the people are.

But alongside this, something bigger has been going on: a massive build-up of US troops in the Caribbean, over 6,000 sailors and marines are there.

Here’s the thing: an aircraft carrier is not remotely suited to stopping drug smuggling.

However, it is a vital element of any planned ground or air war.

Trump is focused on stopping the drugs, yes, but is there actually a wider objective here: regime change?

He has been clear in his belief in spheres of influence around the world – and his will and want to control and dominate the Western hemisphere.

Influence domination over Venezuela could fix the drug problem for sure, but much more too.

The world’s largest oil reserves? Yes, they’re in Venezuela.

On Thursday, appearing at a press conference with Mr Hegseth, Mr Trump said that it was necessary to kill the alleged smugglers, because if they were arrested they would only return to transport drugs “again and again and again”.

“They don’t fear that, they have no fear,” he told reporters.

The attacks at sea would soon be followed by operations on land against drug smuggling cartels, Mr Trump claimed.

“We’re going to kill them,” he added. “They’re going to be, like, dead.”

Some Democratic politicians have expressed concerns that the strikes risk dragging the US into a war with Venezuela because of their proximity to the South American country’s coast.

Others have condemned the attacks as extrajudicial killings that would not stand up in a court of law.

Jim Himes, a member of the House of Representatives, told CBS News earlier this month: “They are illegal killings because the notion that the United States – and this is what the administration says is their justification – is involved in an armed conflict with any drug dealers, any Venezuelan drug dealers, is ludicrous.”

He claimed that Congress had been told “nothing” about who was on the boats and how they were identified as a threat.

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Child killer executed in Tennessee ‘showed signs of life’ two minutes after his ‘death’

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Child killer executed in Tennessee 'showed signs of life' two minutes after his 'death'

A convicted child killer executed in Tennessee showed signs of “sustained cardiac activity” two minutes after he was pronounced dead, his lawyer has claimed.

Byron Black, who shot dead his girlfriend Angela Clay and her two daughters, aged six and nine, in a jealous rage in 1988, was executed in August by a lethal injection.

Alleged issues about his case were raised on Friday as part of a lawsuit challenging the US state‘s lethal injection policies, amid claims they violate both federal and state constitutional bans on cruel and unusual punishment.

The latest proceedings in Nashville were held to consider whether attorneys representing death row inmates in the lawsuit will be allowed to depose key people involved in carrying out executions in Tennessee.

The court heard that concerns had been raised before the execution that Black was being put to death with a working defibrillator implanted in his chest.

There were fears that the device would shock his heart when the lethal chemicals took effect.

The Death Penalty Information Center, which provides data on such matters, said it was unaware of any similar cases.

Seven media witnesses said Black appeared to be in discomfort during the execution. He looked around the room as the execution began, and could be heard sighing and breathing heavily, the AP news agency reported at the time.

An electrocardiogram monitoring his heart recorded cardiac activity after he was pronounced dead, his lawyer Kelley Henry told a judge on Friday.

Read more from Sky News:
Executed man took at least 15 minutes to die

US ramps up ‘drug boats’ operation

Ms Henry, who is leading a group of federal public defenders representing death row inmates in the US state, said only the people who were there would be able to answer the question of what went wrong during Black’s execution.

“At one point, the blanket was pulled down to expose the IV,” she told the court.

“Why? Did the IV come out? Is that the reason that Mr Black exclaimed ‘it’s hurting so bad’? Is the EKG (electrocardiogram) correct?”

A full trial in the case is scheduled to be heard in April.

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