How shocking upsets and near misses of Week 6 impact conference, CFP races
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Bill Connelly
On Oct. 26, 1985, UTEP pulled one of the biggest upsets in WAC history, holding BYU’s Robbie Bosco to 15-of-35 passing with four interceptions and upsetting the No. 7 Cougars — the defending national champions — in a 23-16 shocker. BYU had won 30 of its previous 31 games heading into the game, and UTEP had begun the season 0-6.
Until Saturday, that was the last time a team that was 0-4 or worse had knocked off a top-10 opponent. But almost 40 years after that wild upset at the Sun Bowl, a sparse Rose Bowl crowd witnessed an upset under similar circumstance. UCLA’s 42-37 win over Penn State was the most stunning result of the 2025 season to date, and combined with Florida’s 29-21 win over Texas in The Swamp — a much more normal upset, as far as those things go — it severely wounded the College Football Playoff odds of what were the top two teams in the preseason AP poll.
The rest of Week 6 was more about missed upset opportunities than shockers, but taking down the preseason top two is quite the paradigm shifter. Let’s look back at the most important developments of Week 6.
The biggest upset in 40 years (by one definition, at least)
Each week in my Friday preview column, I search for what I call the Chaos Superfecta, in which I look for four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mash them together into a much more upset-friendly number. This past Friday, I declared that we would be taking down a Big Ten favorite, noting that there was only a 55% chance that Ohio State, Michigan, Illinois and Nebraska all would win. As it turns out, I wasn’t aiming high enough. UCLA’s pregame win probability, per SP+, was 2.1%; the Bruins’ upset was actually too chaotic to be considered for the Chaos Superfecta.
We know how huge upsets tend to play out. The losing favorite turns the ball over too many times (usually with a healthy dose of bad luck), settles for too many field goals and bottoms out on third or fourth down. They win a majority of the plays but lose the wrong ones.
Penn State did lose a fumble to start the second half, and the Nittany Lions’ combined 5-for-12 performance on third and fourth down wasn’t terrible but wasn’t amazing either. But the Nittany Lions produced a 52.6% success rate*, well above the national average of 44.8%, and they averaged a healthy 6.3 yards per play.
(* Success rate: How frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third and fourth.)
Drew Allar, so maligned for big-game performances through the years, was quite good, completing 19 of 26 passes for 200 yards and rushing 10 times (not including one sack) for 89 yards. Aside from an early three-and-out, PSU moved the ball well all game until an all-timer of a fourth-and-short stop by UCLA’s defense in the final minute.
The culprit, instead, was a Penn State defense that has been as good as virtually any in the nation over the past four seasons.
Since the start of 2022, only five teams have gained at least 430 yards on the Nittany Lions: No. 5 Michigan and No. 2 Ohio State in 2022, No. 11 Ole Miss in 2023, No. 1 Oregon in 2024 … and UCLA on Saturday. That’s the same UCLA team that gained just 326 yards on New Mexico in Week 3 and 220 against Utah in its season opener.
Well, I guess it wasn’t the same UCLA. This one had Jerry Neuheisel calling plays after offensive coordinator Tino Sunseri followed fired head coach DeShaun Foster out the door this past week. Neuheisel’s notice was short enough that he hadn’t even mastered the headset yet.
UCLA OC Jerry Neuheisel had never practiced with the headset before today’s game – but it all worked out 😂 pic.twitter.com/oVelZaEa7c
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) October 5, 2025
Neuheisel called the game like UCLA played it: with nothing to lose. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava has spent much of his career looking as though he’s torn between showing off his athleticism and trying to be a pro-style QB prototype by staying in the pocket and making plays with his arm. That has resulted in far too much indecision and far too many sacks over the last season and a half. But he was unlocked Saturday, taking his customary three sacks but otherwise rushing 13 times for 150 yards and three touchdowns. He moved the chains on third down four times with his arm and four times with his legs.
The Bruins sliced down the field for a touchdown to start the game, recovered a surprise onside kick and took a 10-point lead before Penn State could actually touch the ball. They outgained the shell-shocked Nittany Lions by a 285-92 margin in the first half, in part because PSU got the ball only three times, and took a 27-7 lead into halftime. But when the Nittany Lions scored a touchdown, then blocked a punt for another score, to cut the lead to 27-21 midway through the third quarter, it was fair to assume what was going to happen next: Here’s where the slow-starting favorite shifts into gear and wins by two touchdowns, right? Even ESPN’s in-game win probability model shifted to favor the Nittany Lions.
Instead, UCLA immediately drove 75 yards for a touchdown, and when PSU scored in response, UCLA went another 75 yards for a score. Things got tense late, and the Nittany Lions, down 42-35 in the final minute, had a chance to tie the game up. But Scooter Jackson led a host of defenders in stuffing Allar on fourth-and-2, and the Bruins saw out the unbelievable upset.
Even if you had told me in advance that UCLA would win this game, I would have given “Allar plays well, but the defense gets torched, and the Nittany Lions lose at the line of scrimmage on almost every key occasion” betting odds of about +1000. Penn State was without injured star linebacker Tony Rojas, but my goodness, the school didn’t spend unearthly sums of money prying defensive coordinator Jim Knowles away from Ohio State to give up 42 points to UCLA.
This was only James Franklin’s third loss as a favorite of 14 or more points at Penn State — he’s now 56-3 in such games, a 0.949 win percentage that is better than almost any other team in the country. Maybe the Nittany Lions were just due an absolute nonsense performance; maybe no one can limit uncertainty to such an upset-proof degree.
Regardless, this is a devastating loss. With back-to-back games against Ohio State (second in SP+) and Indiana (third) coming up in November, the Nittany Lions were already looking at probably needing to at least split those games to feel good about their playoff chances. Now they probably have to beat both the Buckeyes and Hoosiers, and with their SP+ rating falling off a cliff following Saturday’s result, they’re projected to have only a 1.6% chance of winning out to reach 10-2.
This was the all-in year for Penn State, with the school ponying up not only for Knowles but also to keep stars such as Allar, running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton and defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton in town for one more season. Now their most likely record, per SP+, is 7-5, and their Big Ten title odds are currently 11th in the conference, lower than those of even Iowa or Maryland.
Big Ten title odds, per SP+
Ohio State 26.9%
Oregon 25.8%
Indiana 17.7%
Michigan 9.7%
USC 5.1%
Washington 4.3%
Illinois 3.6%
Nebraska 2.9%
Iowa 1.3%
Maryland 1.2%
Penn State 0.6%
Oof.
Florida over Texas, aka the rise of the disappointing QB
One of the stories of September was how many high-upside quarterbacks were falling miles short of expectations. When I ranked all the power-conference quarterbacks last week, Texas’ Arch Manning ranked 41st, Clemson’s Cade Klubnik ranked 54th, UCLA’s Iamaleava ranked 58th and Florida’s DJ Lagway ranked 61st. All were mega-blue-chip recruits, Klubnik and Iamaleava had piloted playoff teams last season, Lagway had flashed signs of true-freshman brilliance down the stretch and Manning began this season as the betting favorite for the Heisman. All were among the bottom 40% of P4 QBs.
On Saturday, Iamaleava torched Penn State, and Klubnik went 22-of-24 for 254 yards and four touchdowns as Clemson absolutely pasted North Carolina. Lagway, meanwhile, drastically outdueled Manning as Florida toppled Texas.
Against what had been the No. 1 defense in the country, per SP+, Lagway completed 21 of 28 passes for 298 yards and two scores, and after suffering far too many sacks and turnovers in September, he threw one pick with no sacks. Jadan Baugh rushed for 107 yards, and blue-chip freshman Dallas Wilson caught six passes for 111 yards and two touchdowns, including this utterly ridiculous 55-yarder.
0:25
Freshman Dallas Wilson makes unbelievable 55-yard TD catch
Dallas Wilson is able to stay inbounds after the catch and runs in for the Florida touchdown.
The Gators averaged 7.0 yards per play with a 48% success rate against a defense that seemed even more elite than Penn State’s. Only two turnovers and two field goals kept Florida under 30 points. Lagway has consistently pressed this season, trying far too hard to make something happen for a struggling team. On Saturday, he was wonderfully in control.
Manning, meanwhile, had yet another frustrating game. He did complete passes of 22, 26, 33, 38 and 42 yards, with a 36-yard run to boot, but he was just 16-of-29 for the game and threw two picks with six sacks. He continues to lose his footwork and misfire on loads of passes when pressured, he continues to get absolutely no help from his offensive line, and he continues to trust his athleticism too much to bail him out of trouble.
Texas has played five games this season: three against teams ranked 97th or worse in SP+ and two against teams ranked 33rd or better. Texas is 3-0 against the former but 0-2 against the latter. Life in the SEC gives the team plenty of chances to stockpile marquee wins if it gets its act together. But the Longhorns have fallen to 20th in SP+, thanks to an offense that currently ranks 53rd, and saying they still have 5-0 Oklahoma, 5-0 Texas A&M, 4-1 Georgia and 5-1 Vanderbilt on the schedule sounds far more threatening than hopeful. At this point, the Longhorns’ most likely projected record is 7-5, and they’re currently 10th on the SEC title odds list.
SEC title odds, per SP+
Ole Miss 17.0%
Alabama 15.5%
Oklahoma 15.5%
Missouri 11.7%
Texas A&M 9.9%
Georgia 7.3%
Tennessee 6.0%
LSU 5.7%
Vanderbilt 3.3%
Texas 2.8%
The Horns will have a shot at an immediate rebound against Oklahoma in Dallas on Saturday, but any hope Texas fans can derive from their team likely facing Sooners backup quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. is offset by the fact that OU ranks second in defensive SP+, 16 spots higher than the Florida defense that just made Manning’s life hell.
Missed opportunities in Tallahassee and Tuscaloosa
Turnovers have been at the root of many upsets through the years, but turnovers also prevented a couple of underdogs from making favorites sweat Saturday.
No. 10 Alabama 30, No. 16 Vanderbilt 14
A lot of Saturday’s Bama-Vandy game in Tuscaloosa played close to the typical upset script. Alabama moved the ball with ruthless efficiency overall but suffered a few negative plays and an ill-timed turnover and scored touchdowns on just one of its first five red zone trips. The Crimson Tide let Diego Pavia and Vanderbilt hang around in exactly the type of way teams often end up ruing. But unlike last season, Vandy couldn’t hold up its end of the upset bargain.
Pavia lost a fumble at the Bama 8 as the Commodores were attempting to expand an early 7-0 lead, then Pavia was picked off by Keon Sabb at the Bama 7 early in the fourth quarter, when Vandy, down 20-14, had a chance to take the lead again. As efficient and gutsy as Pavia can be, you can’t waste opportunities like that. Bama scored 10 late points to pull away.
Now, Bama was easily the superior team. The Tide outgained the Dores by 153 yards and 0.9 yards per play, with a better success rate (49.3% to 46.3%) and more big plays (gains of 20-plus yards on 10.1% of their snaps to Vandy’s 5.6%). Jam Miller, who missed most of September because of injury, rushed 22 times for 136 yards, and Ty Simpson‘s primary receiver trio — Ryan Williams, Germie Bernard and Isaiah Horton — combined for 15 catches and 246 yards. But they left the door ajar with their red zone failures, and it felt almost surprising when Vandy didn’t take advantage.
In the past two weeks, Bama has beaten Georgia for a second straight year and avenged last year’s loss to Vandy. The challenges are only beginning — the Tide’s next two opponents (Missouri and Tennessee) are each in the SP+ top 10, and both LSU (17th) and Oklahoma (fifth) will visit Tuscaloosa in November — but these were two huge hurdles to clear, and they’re in good shape in the SEC race because of it.
No. 3 Miami 28, No. 18 Florida State 22
Through the first four games of 2025, Florida State might have had the best scripted plays in college football. Over the first 15 plays of a game, the Seminoles were averaging 10.5 yards per play, first in the country. For that matter, their first four snaps Saturday night gained 51 yards as they quickly drove into Miami’s red zone. But the momentum ceased. Over their next 37 snaps, they averaged just 3.5 yards per play with two turnovers. And after a third turnover, they found themselves down 28-3.
Without the turnovers, however, they might have had a chance. The FSU defense did its part, more or less, losing receivers Malachi Toney and CJ Daniels for a quartet of big gains but otherwise allowing just 3.3 yards per play over 55 snaps and forcing five punts with three three-and-outs. Miami scored just enough that, when FSU’s offense finally got going late, the Noles couldn’t quite catch up, but without the self-inflicted wounds, the ending might have been much more interesting. Regardless, after a tough overtime loss to Virginia last week — the Cavaliers beat Louisville in OT as well Saturday — FSU didn’t give itself a shot at a rebound opportunity.
At the heart of FSU’s sudden regression has been a relative loss of form for quarterback Tommy Castellanos. Even as the Noles began the season brilliantly, I couldn’t shake the memory of last year, when Castellanos followed a brilliant start at Boston College with a collapse.
Castellanos’ first three games of 2024: 83.5 Total QBR, 64.8% completion rate, 9.5 yards per dropback, 8.5% sack rate
Rest of the season: 17.9 Total QBR, 59.8% completion rate, 5.9 yards per dropback, 11.6% sack rate
Castellanos and offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn fit beautifully together, and his ceiling is higher at FSU than it was at BC. But after an almost perfect three-game start, it appears opponents are once again adjusting well to his unique skill set. Virginia and Miami both hemmed him in and forced him to throw more passes instead of scrambling for downfield yards, and it limited his effectiveness.
Castellanos’ first three games of 2025: 92.5 Total QBR, 71.1% completion rate, 13.8 yards per dropback, 0.0% sack rate
Last two games: 58.9 Total QBR, 55.8% completion rate, 6.3 yards per dropback, 4.9% sack rate
It’s still baffling that Bama didn’t understand the assignment in the season opener and allowed Castellanos to repeatedly escape the pocket, but Virginia and Miami put him in more awkward situations. FSU should still score plenty of points and win plenty of games — SP+ gives them a 66% chance of finishing 8-4 or better, which is a massive rebound after last year’s 2-10 collapse. But any hopes of an ACC title charge or playoff bid are pretty much toast.
ACC title odds, per SP+
Miami 32.9%
Duke 15.7%
Georgia Tech 13.4%
Virginia 12.4%
Louisville 9.4%
SMU 6.6%
Pitt 5.2%
Florida State 1.2%
FSU fans probably would have welcomed an 8-4 record before the season began, but the win over Bama set a bar too high for the Seminoles to clear.
Cincinnati over Iowa State and the new Big 12 race
No. 11 Texas Tech 35, Houston 11
Hey, guess what: Texas Tech looked fantastic again. Even while settling for too many field goals (like Alabama), the Red Raiders still led previously unbeaten Houston by at least 12 points for the game’s final 46 minutes, more than doubled the Cougars’ yardage (552-267) and cruised to victory. They’re projected favorites by double digits in every remaining regular-season game, per SP+, and have a 36% chance of reaching 12-0. They have better conference title odds than any other power-conference team.
Big 12 title odds, per SP+
Texas Tech 38.2%
BYU 12.7%
Cincinnati 10.0%
Utah 9.8%
Arizona State 7.2%
TCU 5.1%
Arizona 5.0%
Iowa State 4.4%
Kansas 3.9%
Overall, the Big 12 slate was as chaotic as ever, with three games decided by one score — including a last-second goal-line stand for Kansas (27-20 over UCF) and a last-minute field goal for Baylor (35-34 over Kansas State). Unbeaten BYU didn’t look amazing against West Virginia on Friday night but never really had to sweat either, and Baylor, TCU and Kansas were able to overcome early-season losses and remain in the title race.
Cincinnati 38, No. 14 Iowa State 30
Iowa State couldn’t remain unbeaten, however. The Cyclones allowed points on all of Cincinnati’s first-half drives, fell behind 31-7 and couldn’t get closer than nine points until the final two minutes. Cincy’s Evan Pryor and Tawee Walker combined for 167 rushing yards in the first half alone, quarterback Brendan Sorsby did Sorsby things (214 passing yards, 64 rushing yards), and Cincinnati won its fourth straight game since a Week 1 heartbreaker against Nebraska. This wasn’t a flawless performance — the Bearcats committed a mind-numbing run of penalties early in the fourth quarter and gained just 53 yards in their first 16 second-half snaps before putting the game away with a long Caleb Goodie touchdown — but it established their spot in the title race, and if the defense can more frequently perform as it did in the first half Saturday, they could remain in the race for a while.
This week in SP+
The SP+ rankings have been updated for the week. Let’s take a look at the teams that saw the biggest change in their overall ratings. (Note: We’re looking at ratings, not rankings.)
Moving up
Here are the 10 teams that saw their ratings rise the most this week:
Old Dominion: up 5.2 adjusted points per game (ranking rose from 65th to 50th)
Ball State: up 4.6 points (from 129th to 126th)
UConn: up 4.5 points (from 77th to 66th)
Florida: up 4.3 points (from 47th to 33rd)
New Mexico State: up 4.2 points (from 128th to 121st)
Pitt: up 4.1 points (from 41st to 30th)
UCLA: up 4.1 points (from 100th to 87th)
Northwestern: up 4.0 points (from 80th to 71st)
Akron: up 3.7 points (from 131st to 128th)
Notre Dame: up 3.6 points (from 19th to 8th)
Florida, UCLA and Northwestern all enjoyed course corrections after strong performances, and SP+ was particularly impressed with what Notre Dame did to Boise State — by the stats, the Irish’s 28-7 win looked like a 33-point win. But can we talk about Old Dominion for a second? Quarterback Colton Joseph is averaging 15 yards per completion and 8.3 yards per carry and is up to 17th in Total QBR, and the 5-1 Monarchs’ only blemish was a competitive loss against Indiana. They beat Virginia Tech, and their average score against three non-power-conference opponents is 41-7. They play James Madison in two weeks in what is quickly becoming one of the biggest Group of 5 games of the season.
Moving down
Here are the 10 teams whose ratings fell the most:
Penn State: down 6.4 adjusted points per game (ranking fell from 4th to 16th)
Mississippi State: down 5.0 points (from 27th to 43rd)
Minnesota: down 4.5 points (from 45th to 60th)
Vanderbilt: down 4.1 points (from 11th to 21st)
Boston College: down 4.1 points (from 75th to 86th)
Oklahoma State: down 4.1 points (from 103rd to 116th)
North Carolina: down 4.0 points (from 86th to 101st)
Coastal Carolina: down 4.0 points (from 123rd to 129th)
Iowa State: down 3.9 points (from 26th to 37th)
Florida International: down 3.9 points (from 121st to 127th)
We saw a number of terribly disappointing teams continuing to fall this week — Boston College, Oklahoma State, North Carolina, Coastal — but it probably isn’t a surprise to see which team leads this list. Penn State still ranks 16th overall but only because it takes a while to fall from near the top.
Who won the Heisman this week?
I am once again awarding the Heisman every single week of the season and doling out weekly points, F1-style (in this case, 10 points for first place, 9 for second, and so on). How will this Heisman race play out, and how different will the result be from the actual Heisman voting?
Here is this week’s Heisman top 10:
1. Nico Iamaleava, UCLA (17-of-24 passing for 166 yards and two touchdowns, plus 150 non-sack rushing yards and three TDs against Penn State).
2. Julian Sayin, Ohio State (23-of-27 passing for 326 yards and three touchdowns against Minnesota).
3. Eli Heidenreich, Navy (eight catches for 243 yards and three touchdowns against Air Force).
4. Luke Altmyer, Illinois (19-of-22 passing for 390 yards and a touchdown, plus 20 non-sack rushing yards against Purdue).
5. Jakobe Thomas, Miami (5 tackles, a sack, an interception, two pass breakups and a forced fumble against Florida State).
6. Colton Joseph, Old Dominion (17-of-30 passing for 315 yards and four touchdowns, plus 67 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Coastal Carolina).
7. Blake Horvath, Navy (20-of-26 passing for 339 yards and three touchdowns, plus 130 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Air Force).
8. Ty Simpson, Alabama (23-of-31 passing for 340 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT, plus 21 non-sack rushing yards against Vanderbilt).
9. Carnell Tate, Ohio State (nine catches for 183 yards and a touchdown against Minnesota).
10. DJ Lagway, Florida (21-of-28 passing for 298 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT against Texas).
Iamaleava was the obvious choice this week, but Sayin is starting to make an admittedly easy job — throwing to Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate — look really, really easy. In four games since the Buckeyes’ win over Texas, he has completed 88 of 106 passes (83%!) for 1,187 yards with 14 touchdowns and three picks, none in the past two games. He can still be fooled occasionally (which makes sense since he’s a redshirt freshman), but it’s becoming increasingly rare.
Honorable mention:
• David Bailey, Texas Tech (3 tackles — all TFLs, 2 sacks, a forced fumble and a QB hurry against Houston).
• Carson Beck, Miami (20-of-27 passing for 241 yards and four touchdowns against Florida State).
• Hank Beatty, Illinois (five catches for 186 yards and a touchdown against Purdue).
• Jordan Gant, Akron (32 carries for 176 yards, plus 28 receiving yards and a touchdown against Central Michigan).
• Mason Heintschel, Pitt (30-of-41 passing for 323 yards and four touchdowns, plus 42 non-sack rushing yards against Boston College).
• Cashius Howell, Texas A&M (3 tackles, all sacks, and a pass breakup against Mississippi State)
• Cade Klubnik, Clemson (22-of-24 passing for 254 yards and four touchdowns against North Carolina).
• Jam Miller, Alabama (22 carries for 136 yards and a touchdown, plus eight receiving yards against Vanderbilt).
• Naeten Mitchell, New Mexico State (10 tackles, 1 TFL, 2 pass breakups and a pick-six against Sam Houston).
Through six weeks, here are your points leaders:
1. Ty Simpson, Alabama (24 points)
2. Luke Altmyer, Illinois (16)
3T. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (15)
3T. Taylen Green, Arkansas (15)
5. Jayden Maiava, USC (12)
6T. Jonah Coleman, Washington (10)
6T. Nico Iamaleava, UCLA (10)
6T. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (10)
6T. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt (10)
6T. Sawyer Robertson, Baylor (10)
With four top-10 appearances in the past five weeks, Ty Simpson, the No. 4 overall betting favorite, has built a bit of a cushion for himself as we approach the midway point of the season. (Betting favorite Carson Beck has yet to make an appearance on our list, which is odd.) Meanwhile … hello there, Luke Altmyer! He has finished second and fourth in the past two weeks while going a combined 39-of-48 for 618 yards and three touchdowns. Since getting stomped by Indiana, the Illinois offense has been nearly unstoppable.
My 10 favorite games of the weekend
1. UCLA 42, No. 7 Penn State 37. Obviously.
2-3. FCS: Georgetown 27, Morgan State 24; Division II: West Liberty 47, West Virginia State 41. The smaller-school ranks gave us a pair of Hail Mary-esque finishes this week.
First, after watching an early 14-0 lead turn into a late 24-21 deficit, Georgetown’s Dez Thomas II found Jimmy Kibble for a 49-yard score to take down Morgan State at the buzzer.
HAIL MARY TO KIBBLE FOR THE WIN!#HoyaSaxa #HoyaBold #DefendTheDistrict #SISU https://t.co/CLGmxgiUPv pic.twitter.com/C2VrowGbMW
— Georgetown Football (@HoyasFB) October 4, 2025
Then, at the end of a 40-point fourth quarter that had already given us an 80-yard Antevious Jackson-to-Hunter Patterson touchdown pass, Jackson found Osama Hurst for 40 yards to turn a tie game into a West Liberty win.
BALLGAME! West Liberty beats West Virginia State on the final play of the game – a 40-yard TD pass from Antevious Jackson to Osama Hurst. Hilltoppers 47, Yellow Jackets 41. #MECFB pic.twitter.com/8exKcZ1yLF
— Mountain East Conf. (@TheMountainEast) October 4, 2025
4. Arkansas State 31, Texas State 30. Oof, Texas State. The Bobcats’ defense mostly shut Arkansas State down for three quarters and took three separate leads in the fourth. But ASU drove the length of the field to tie each time, and when Lincoln Pare scored to give Texas State the lead with a minute left, Tyler Robles missed the PAT after a poor snap. That opened the door, and Jaylen Raynor‘s short touchdown with seven seconds left — plus Clune Van Andel‘s PAT — gave the Red Wolves an upset win to start Sun Belt play.
5. Baylor 35, Kansas State 34. OOF, K-State. The Wildcats have now lost four games by a combined 13 points. They led this one 31-17 with nine minutes left and were driving to basically put the game away, but Jacob Redding‘s 66-yard pick-six with 4:28 left gave the Bears a sudden lead. Luis Rodriguez‘s 22-yard field goal made it 34-32 KSU, but Connor Hawkins booted in a 53-yarder at the buzzer, and Baylor moved to 2-1 in Big 12 play.
6. Washington 24, Maryland 20. I’m not going to lie: I stopped paying attention to this one when Maryland went up 20-0. Apparently Maryland did too.
7-8. Division III: No. 5 Wisconsin-La Crosse 23, No. 10 Wisconsin-Whitewater 20 (2OT); No. 17 Wisconsin-Oshkosh 21, No. 12 Wisconsin-River Falls 17. You know how I’m always nagging you about keeping up with the Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference in Division III? If the first week of this year’s title race is any indication, the nagging isn’t going to cease anytime soon. The conference featured a pair of ranked-versus-ranked matchups, and both were thrillers.
After nearly 60 minutes of defensive dominance in Oshkosh, the offenses perked up late. Kaleb Blaha’s 2-yard run with 1:21 left capped a 92-yard drive and gave River Falls a 17-14 lead, but Oshkosh drove 66 yards in eight plays, and Quentin Keene’s 7-yard strike to Clayton Schwalbe gave the Titans a last-second win. But that was the mere undercard: The headliner in Whitewater, played in front of 20,167 — the second-largest on-campus crowd ever for a Division III game — saw La Crosse overcome a 17-0 halftime deficit and send the game to overtime with a late Gabe Lynch touchdown. Overtime was a field goal festival, but after Christian Powell recovered a strip-sack fumble, La Crosse earned a big walk-off road win with a 36-yard field goal from Michael Stack.
9. FCS: Western Carolina 23, Wofford 21. I should have probably given Western Carolina’s Taron Dickens a spot on the Heisman list above. He did, after all, complete 46 straight passes Saturday, an NCAA single-game record. Granted, they were mostly short passes — he finished 53-for-56 for 378 yards — and he needed every one of them to overcome three long Wofford touchdowns. But Marcus Trout‘s 34-yard field goal with 23 seconds left assured Dickens’ record day wasn’t in vain.
10. Division II: No. 8 Augustana 29, Sioux Falls 28. Sioux Falls was on its way to both a top-10 upset and a win in the Key to the City rivalry as the Cougars led 28-10 heading into the fourth quarter. But Augustana charged back, with two Richard Lucero Jr. touchdown passes sandwiching a 52-yard Jake Pecina field goal. Lucero’s 24-yard strike to Isaiah Huber gave Augie the lead with 1:18 left, and USF’s last-minute desperation drive stalled out near midfield.
Honorable mention:
12. Buffalo 31, Eastern Michigan 30 (OT)
13. No. 24 Virginia 30, Louisville 27 (OT)
14. Division II: Ferrum 28, Shorter 25
15. FCS: Dayton 35, Morehead State 28
16. Troy 31, South Alabama 24 (OT)
17. Western Kentucky 27, Delaware 24 (Friday)
18. Florida 29, No. 9 Texas 21
19. Division II: Minnesota State-Moorhead 40, Minot State 37 (OT)
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Adam Rittenberg
The 12-team College Football Playoff is no longer new, but there are some different elements to consider when beginning the intrepid task of predicting every postseason game the day the pairings are announced.
For starters, there are more justifiably aggrieved teams at being left out of the 12-team CFP. Among them: Vanderbilt (10-2), BYU (11-2), Texas (9-3) and, of course, Notre Dame (10-2), which had the most bitter Sunday following the selections.
The annual coaching carousel always impacts the postseason, but this year has seen moves that have impacted the CFP unlike ever before. Ole Miss will play without former coach Lane Kiffin, while new coach Pete Golding will make his debut at the helm in the biggest game in team history. Jon Sumrall, meanwhile, will lead Tulane into its first CFP before focusing fully on his new job at Florida. James Madison is a surprise inclusion to the CFP, and coach Bob Chesney will lead the Dukes before departing for UCLA.
Several CFP teams also have coordinators moving on to head-coaching roles, including Oregon‘s Will Stein (Kentucky) and Tosh Lupoi (Cal), and Ohio State‘s Brian Hartline (South Florida). There are also the standard uncertainties around bowl games, including NFL draft declarations and transfer announcements, which haven’t kicked into high gear yet since the portal doesn’t open until January. All this makes predicting the bowl/CFP outcomes right after the pairings are revealed kind of insane, but also fun!
Don’t mortgage your house on these, but if they hit, I will accept any and all gifts and congratulations. Without further ado, from Bowl Predictions HQ in downtown Indianapolis, here are the breakdowns and picks for every college football postseason game.
Ready, set, bowl!
All times ET.
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CFP games | Title game | Bowl schedule
Friday, Dec. 19
CFP first-round game
Alabama Crimson Tide at Oklahoma Sooners
Gaylord Family – Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman, Oklahoma)
8 p.m., ABC, ESPN
The CFP begins with a rematch of a game played barely a month earlier at Bryant-Denny Stadium. I was there and came away impressed by Oklahoma’s defensive talent and layered scheme, which prevailed in a 23-21 victory. Alabama was clearly worn down toward the end of the season, not looking impressive in its victory at Auburn, and being held scoreless for more than 47 minutes against Georgia in the SEC championship. But teams that squeak into the CFP can gain some momentum from being granted a second life, and despite the head-to-head outcome in Tuscaloosa, Alabama still outgained Oklahoma 406-212 and had 11 more first downs. Quarterback Ty Simpson has a chance to reset and reclaim his accuracy, and running back Jam Miller will likely return for the CFP. Coach Kalen DeBoer and the Tide are no strangers to this stage, and they’ll find a way to win a close one in Norman.
Prediction: Alabama 20, Oklahoma 17
Saturday, Dec. 20
CFP first-round game
Miami Hurricanes at Texas A&M Aggies
Kyle Field (College Station, Texas)
Noon, ABC, ESPN
The Hurricanes can exhale after making it into the field over Notre Dame, which they beat in the season opener. Miami is one of the nation’s most talented teams. Now the Hurricanes must draw from making their first CFP appearance against another CFP newcomer in Texas A&M, which is coming off its first loss of the season. Kyle Field is always electric and should help Texas A&M in its first CFP game, but Miami should benefit from the earlier start time, rather than having to deal with the 12th Man at night. Both teams have tremendous talent at wide receiver and playmaking quarterbacks in Marcel Reed (Texas A&M) and Carson Beck (Miami). But Miami’s improved defense under coordinator Corey Hetherman should provide the Canes an edge in this game, especially after Reed has thrown six interceptions in his past five games. The Hurricanes force a late takeaway and get out of Aggieland with a win.
Prediction: Miami 31, Texas A&M 28
CFP first-round game
Tulane Green Wave at Ole Miss Rebels
Vaught Hemingway Stadium (Oxford, Mississippi)
3:30 p.m., TNT
A first-round rematch of a game Ole Miss won by 35 points back on Sept. 20 is less than ideal, but the changed circumstances around both programs add some intrigue. How will Ole Miss perform without Kiffin at the controls? Golding is a popular replacement, but he has never led this team and will be facing a future SEC competitor in Sumrall. Tulane defended North Texas extremely well in the American Conference championship game, forcing five turnovers and holding the Mean Green to seven points until the final minute of the third quarter. Golding’s defense gave Tulane problems in the first matchup, as quarterback Jake Retzlaff completed only 5 of 17 passes for 56 yards before being benched. Tulane struggled to defend Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who had 307 passing yards, 2 touchdowns and 112 rushing yards in the first meeting. Sumrall’s team will play a bit better this time, but Ole Miss overcomes a slow start to pull away behind Chambliss and running back Kewan Lacy.
Prediction: Ole Miss 34, Tulane 16
CFP first-round game
James Madison Dukes at Oregon Ducks
Autzen Stadium (Eugene, Oregon)
7:30 p.m., TNT
A year ago, the Ducks went 13-0 and received a very tough CFP draw, which resulted in a fast and humbling exit in the Rose Bowl. Oregon will be playing earlier in this year’s playoff, and coach Dan Lanning’s team is heavily favored to advance against James Madison, the Sun Belt champion. Although the Dukes are well-coached and won their final 11 games, they did so in a weaker-than-normal Sun Belt and lost at Louisville by 14 points, while also surviving a home scare against Washington State. Oregon needs no motivation after losing big to Ohio State in last season’s CFP. The Ducks should finally be healthy again at wide receiver, and quarterback Dante Moore played very well down the stretch. How Stein and Lupoi function in their dual roles is worth watching, but Oregon shouldn’t have too much trouble with JMU at thunderous Autzen Stadium.
Prediction: Oregon 38, James Madison 13
Wednesday, Dec. 31
CFP Quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
Miami Hurricanes vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
The quarters kick off with a good one, as Ohio State returns to the building where it won a CFP semifinal matchup in last season’s national title run. Despite the disappointment of the Big Ten championship game, coach Ryan Day and his team can draw upon their playoff success from last season and begin the quest to repeat. A key matchup will be Ohio State’s offensive line (which allowed five sacks to Indiana after surrendering six during the entire regular season) facing a talented Miami defensive front led by Akheem Mesidor and Rueben Bain Jr. The Buckeyes will need to run the ball effectively, especially in short-yardage situations. But they can also lean on their defense to fluster Beck and the Hurricanes a bit. Expect big games from Arvell Reese, Caden Curry and others as Ohio State moves on.
Prediction: Ohio State 27, Miami 20
Thursday, Jan. 1
CFP Quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Oregon Ducks vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
The best teams money can buy? Let’s freaking go. No two programs seem to get more flak for what they invest in their rosters than Oregon (hello, Phil Knight) and Texas Tech (howdy, Cody Campbell). But the Red Raiders and Ducks have earned their way to this stage and should deliver an incredible matchup in South Florida. Oregon has the quarterback edge with Dante Moore, who should have more wide receivers at his disposal as he faces a top-five defense in Texas Tech. The matchup of Oregon’s offensive line and Texas Tech’s defensive front should be epic. Even though Oregon has CFP experience, Texas Tech should be able to ride Shiel Wood’s defense and just enough offense to get the W.
Prediction: Texas Tech 23, Oregon 20
CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Indiana Hoosiers
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN
Indiana had barely capped off the most magical night in recent program history before coach Curt Cignetti turned his attention toward preparing (and humbling) his team before the CFP. The Hoosiers are AP No. 1 for the first time and riding high from their first outright Big Ten title since 1945. But going undefeated didn’t matter for Oregon in last season’s Rose Bowl, and Indiana must lock in for an opponent that is used to the biggest of stages. Yes, it’s Alabama, but the Hoosiers have the better quarterback in Fernando Mendoza, a much better running game with multiple options and a defense that can match up with the Tide, especially after the Ohio State win. Alabama will need some type of offensive balance to win this one, and I don’t see it happening against coordinator Bryant Haines’ ferocious defense. Indiana gets two touchdown passes from Mendoza and advances.
Prediction: Indiana 24, Alabama 16
CFP Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Ole Miss Rebels vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN
The quarterfinals end with an SEC rematch in the Big Easy, as coach Kirby Smart tries to avoid a repeat of last season’s Sugar Bowl, when Georgia had just 10 points and 62 rushing yards in a loss to Notre Dame. Anyone think Kiffin will make the trip over from Baton Rouge to watch his former team? Quarterback Gunner Stockton was making his first career start in place of the injured Beck and should be much more comfortable this time around. Stockton had his best game of the season Oct. 18 against Ole Miss, completing 26 of 31 passes for 289 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions in a 43-35 win. Georgia also is playing some of its best football collectively during the stretch run, especially a defense that struggled at times against Chambliss in the first meeting. I love this Ole Miss team, but I don’t see Georgia exiting the playoff so soon again.
Prediction: Georgia 31, Ole Miss 21
Thursday, Jan. 8
CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
Georgia Bulldogs vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
The best matchup of the entire CFP could come in the desert, featuring teams that have combined for three of the past four national championships. Ohio State and Georgia delivered a classic in the 2022 national semifinal, a game the Buckeyes largely controlled before falling 42-41 in Atlanta. Georgia has an experience edge at quarterback with Stockton over redshirt freshman Julian Sayin, but Ohio State’s wide receivers and overall defensive staff power could swing the game its way. I’m not expecting many points but Ohio State finds a few more, as kicker Jayden Fielding redeems himself after the Big Ten title game miss.
Prediction: Ohio State 19, Georgia 16
Friday, Jan. 9
CFP Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Indiana Hoosiers
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Two of the nation’s best defenses will go at it in Atlanta with a spot in the national championship game on the line. The game also pits Mendoza, the FBS leader in touchdown passes, against arguably the nation’s top defender in Texas Tech linebacker Jacob Rodriguez. Each scoring chance will be critical, as both defenses rank in the top five nationally in red zone touchdowns allowed. I could certainly see this going either way, but Indiana has a fairly substantial advantage at quarterback with Mendoza, and an underrated run game to provide balance. The Hoosiers move on to the natty.
Prediction: Indiana 20, Texas Tech 17
Monday, Jan. 19
CFP National Championship
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Indiana Hoosiers
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN
Shield your eyes, Paul Finebaum and Peter Burns, it’s an all-Big Ten national title game, featuring a rematch of the conference championship in Indianapolis. Mendoza will be playing in his hometown with a chance to cap a dream season on so many fronts for himself, his family and his Hoosiers team. But Ohio State will spoil the party in a game that will be a slightly higher-scoring version of what we saw at Lucas Oil Stadium. Jeremiah Smith, who grew up near Hard Rock Stadium, shows why he’s the best player in the sport with two second-half touchdown catches, as Ohio State repeats as national champion for the first time.
Prediction: Ohio State 24, Indiana 20
Complete bowl season schedule
Saturday, Dec. 13
Cricket Celebration Bowl
South Carolina State Bulldogs vs. Prairie View A&M Panthers
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
The Bulldogs return to the Celebration Bowl for the second straight season and for the third time in five years, while Prairie View A&M makes its debut in the game under talented first-year coach Tremaine Jackson. South Carolina State quarterback William Atkins IV, who had 16 touchdowns and only four interceptions this season, faces a Prairie View A&M defense that allowed fewer than 10 points in five of its final seven games. The Panthers are coming in hot and win a close one behind the defense and dynamic wide receiver Jyzaiah Rockwell, who catches two touchdown passes.
Prediction: Prairie View A&M 27, South Carolina State 21
Bucked Up LA Bowl
Boise State Broncos vs. Washington Huskies
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
The Broncos didn’t return to the College Football Playoff, but they still found a way to win the Mountain West for the third consecutive season. Two years ago, I picked Boise State in this game but UCLA took down the Broncos even though coach Chip Kelly had one foot out the door. Washington is a young, talented and somewhat confounding team, but I like the Huskies to use the bowl as a springboard toward 2026. Quarterback Demond Williams Jr. connects for two second-half touchdown passes as Washington pulls away late.
Prediction: Washington 37, Boise State 27
Tuesday, Dec. 16
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Troy Trojans vs. Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
The runners-up from the Conference USA (Jacksonville State) and Sun Belt (Troy) championship games meet in their home state for what should be a well-attended and fun environment in Montgomery. Troy held a second-half lead at Clemson and a really nice start to Sun Belt play, but its offense struggled to score late, including in the conference championship. Jacksonville State has been a bit more consistent and will ride running back Cam Cook, the MVP of C-USA with 1,659 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns, to a victory.
Prediction: Jacksonville State 24, Troy 20
Wednesday, Dec. 17
StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Old Dominion Monarchs vs. South Florida Bulls
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Both teams had very strong seasons, taking down Power 4 opponents in Florida (South Florida) and Virginia Tech (Old Dominion). Both are also in some degree of flux. USF coach Alex Golesh left for Auburn and won’t be coaching the bowl game. Old Dominion standout quarterback Colton Joseph, a dynamic dual threat, is set to enter the transfer portal and won’t play in the bowl. South Florida has the talent edge here after spending a good chunk of the season in the AP Top 25. Both defenses are playing very well, as Old Dominion allowed a total of 26 points in its final four games. I’m going with South Florida in a somewhat lower-scoring game.
Prediction: South Florida 24, Old Dominion 17
68 Ventures Bowl
Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns vs. Delaware Blue Hens
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
The game location certainly favors Louisiana, which makes its eighth consecutive bowl appearance and 13th since 2011, but is just 1-3 under coach Michael Desormeaux. Delaware, meanwhile, is going bowling in its first season as an FBS member. The Blue Hens have notable wins against UConn and Louisiana Tech but were pretty uneven this season, losing to Sam Houston on Nov. 15. The Ragin’ Cajuns won their final four games to get bowl-eligible, all by single digits, and will find a way in another tight one behind a balanced rushing attack.
Prediction: Louisiana 28, Delaware 24
Thursday, Dec. 18
Xbox Bowl
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Missouri State Bears
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN2
Coach Butch Jones leads Arkansas State into its third consecutive bowl game, and is 5-1 in his past six bowls. Missouri State, meanwhile, reached the postseason in its first year as an FBS member under promising coach Ryan Beard. Expect some points in this one, as the two defenses rank 105th (Arkansas State) and 109th (Missouri State) in SP+. Both teams have played a lot of one-score games, but Missouri State’s passing game will be the difference. Senior quarterback Jacob Clark has been very solid, and the Bears have five players with more than 420 receiving yards.
Prediction: Missouri State 34, Arkansas State 30
Friday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Kennesaw State Owls vs. Western Michigan Broncos
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon, ESPN
One of the top early bowl matchups features the Conference USA champ (Kennesaw State) and the MAC champ (Western Michigan), as well as two promising coaches to know in Jerry Mack and Lance Taylor. The best unit on the field is Western Michigan’s defense, as first-year coordinator Chris O’Leary has overseen a group that ranks 14th nationally in points allowed and 15th in yards allowed. Kennesaw State has been really good in close games and has a playmaker in quarterback Amari Odom, but WMU’s defense will carry the day.
Prediction: Western Michigan 28, Kennesaw State 20
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Memphis Tigers vs. NC State Wolfpack
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
The way these teams ended their regular seasons couldn’t have been more different. Memphis dropped its final three games and four of its final six after entering the AP Top 25 following a 6-0 start. Then, the Tigers lost coach Ryan Silverfield and others to Arkansas. NC State had a tough midseason stretch but won three of its final four games, including an upset of Georgia Tech. The Wolfpack haven’t won a bowl game since 2017 (Sun) and shouldn’t lack motivation in this one. Expect a big performance from quarterback CJ Bailey and the NC State offense.
Prediction: NC State 38, Memphis 27
Monday, Dec. 22
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Washington State Cougars vs. Utah State Aggies
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
The Cougars are the better team, as they put a scare into two CFP participants, Ole Miss and James Madison, and a CFP hopeful in Virginia, losing the three road games by a total of eight points. But Washington State last week was rocked by the departure of coach Jimmy Rogers to Iowa State after only one year on the Palouse. The Cougars were in a similar situation last year after coach Jake Dickert’s departure and lost the Holiday Bowl. Utah State had a nice road win against Fresno State, and played better defensively down the stretch. But I don’t expect the Cougars to splinter. They finish strong.
Prediction: Washington State 26, Utah State 20
Tuesday, Dec. 23
Bush’s Boca Raton Bowl
Toledo Rockets vs. Louisville Cardinals
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Louisville’s last trip to South Florida brought its best moment of the season, a 24-21 win against then-No. 2 Miami that put the Cardinals in the mix for the ACC title and a CFP spot. Those hopes quickly faded after a three-game ACC losing streak, but Louisville crushed rival Kentucky 41-0 in the regular-season finale, and can still finish with its third consecutive season of nine or more wins under coach Jeff Brohm. Toledo, meanwhile, lost longtime coach Jason Candle to UConn and defensive coordinator Vince Kehres to Syracuse. The Rockets’ path to success is through their defense, which ranks fourth nationally in points allowed (12.2 ppg). But Louisville should be engaged enough to finish things with a win.
Prediction: Louisville 27, Toledo 16
New Orleans Bowl
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
The good news for Southern Miss is it returns to the postseason for the first time since 2022 after improving from 1-11 last year to seven wins this fall. The bad news: Coach Charles Huff is headed for Memphis after his lone season in Hattiesburg, creating some uncertainty entering this game. Western Kentucky has steady leadership with Tyson Helton, who is 4-2 in bowls and has won eight or more games in each of the past five seasons. The Hilltoppers have been a bit erratic on offense but can lean on their defense in this one.
Prediction: Western Kentucky 31, Southern Miss 21
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Despite falling short in the Mountain West championship game, UNLV can cap a strong first season under coach Dan Mullen with its 11th win, matching last year’s Rebels and the 1984 squad for the most in team history. Ohio also had a solid season at 8-4, but the team was rocked by coach Brian Smith being placed on leave Dec. 1 with no details provided. The quarterback matchup of UNLV’s Anthony Colandrea and Ohio’s Parker Navarro should be fun, but given the uncertainty around Ohio, the Rebels get the win.
Prediction: UNLV 33, Ohio 24
Wednesday, Dec. 24
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
California Golden Bears vs. Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
What a fun matchup on the island, as former Hawai’i coach Nick Rolovich, leading Cal on an interim basis, faces his former team, led by record-setting Hawai’i quarterback Timmy Chang, who has done an outstanding job this season. It’s also a homecoming for Cal standout freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, an Ewa Beach native who faces a Hawai’i defense that allowed a total of 13 points in its final two regular-season wins (both at home). Will the Rainbow Warriors open the season with a win against Stanford and close with a win over Cal? They will, thanks to a last-minute field goal from the “Tokyo Toe,” Kansei Matsuzawa.
Prediction: Hawai’i 30, Cal 28
Friday, Dec. 26
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Central Michigan Chippewas vs. Northwestern Wildcats
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Some Big Ten teams wouldn’t get up for a post-Christmas bowl visit to Detroit and a MAC opponent, but not Northwestern. The Wildcats were elated to get bowl-eligible with a dramatic win over Minnesota at Wrigley Field, and have performed well in the postseason, winning five consecutive bowls, including the 2023 Las Vegas Bowl under coach David Braun. Central Michigan returns to the postseason for the first time since 2021 and should have the crowd edge at Ford Field. But the Chippewas really struggled against Power 4 opponents Pitt (45-17) and Michigan (63-3), and Northwestern went through a much tougher schedule.
Prediction: Northwestern 28, Central Michigan 14
Rate Bowl
New Mexico Lobos vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
When it comes to outsized coaching personalities, few bowl matchups will deliver better than Jason Eck (New Mexico) and P.J. Fleck (Minnesota). Eck, a former Wisconsin lineman who is familiar with Minnesota from his playing days, won Mountain West Coach of the Year honors in his debut season with New Mexico, which tied for first in the league and went 6-0 at home for the first time since 1934. The Lobos haven’t played in a bowl outside their home state since 2004, but will be well-represented in Phoenix. My lean is New Mexico, but Fleck is excellent in bowls, going 6-0 at Minnesota with a Rate Bowl victory in 2021. Tough call here, but I’m riding with the Lobos, who win their 10th game for the first time since 1982.
Prediction: New Mexico 24, Minnesota 20
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Florida International Panthers vs. UTSA Roadrunners
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
The vibes certainly seem better on the Florida International side. FIU won its final four games, including a triumph over Jacksonville State, to secure bowl eligibility under first-year coach Willie Simmons, who won the Celebration Bowl in 2023 at Florida A&M. UTSA coach Jeff Traylor, meanwhile, hasn’t looked happy this season, as the Roadrunners haven’t harnessed the momentum from some nice home wins over Tulane and East Carolina. UTSA has the talent edge with quarterback Owen McCown and others, but will it be truly motivated? I say yes.
Prediction: UTSA 37, Florida International 24
Saturday, Dec. 27
Go Bowling Military Bowl
Pittsburgh Panthers vs. East Carolina Pirates
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Pitt has been quite good away from home this season, sweeping its ACC road schedule at 4-0 and enduring its only stumble against West Virginia in the Backyard Brawl. The Panthers seemingly have a bright future with quarterback Mason Heintschel, running back Ja’Kyrian Turner and others set to return in 2026. East Carolina had a nice season under coach Blake Harrell, sustaining its only losses against bowl teams (NC State, BYU, Tulane, UTSA). Quarterback Katin Houser blossomed for ECU with 3,300 passing yards, and will challenge Pitt’s defense. But the Panthers have a bit too much firepower in this one.
Prediction: Pitt 34, East Carolina 28
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Clemson Tigers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Neither team entered the 2025 season expecting to finish it out in a baseball stadium in the Bronx, although at least Dabo Swinney is a Yankees fan. Penn State made a midseason coaching change, while Swinney has hinted at significant adjustments for the way his program operates. Both teams finished strong, though, as Clemson swept its final four games, and Penn State claimed its final three under interim coach Terry Smith, who will remain on staff with new coach Matt Campbell. Opt-outs likely will factor into this matchup, given the NFL hopefuls on both teams. The location favors Penn State, which will play hard for Smith and win a low-scoring contest.
Prediction: Penn State 20, Clemson 16
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
UConn Huskies vs. Army Black Knights
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
For the first time in the brief life of the Fenway Bowl, two teams based in the Northeast will meet at the iconic baseball venue. UConn aims for its second straight win in the game, and its first 10-win season, and will be led by interim coach Gordon Sammis, the team’s offensive coordinator, following Jim Mora’s departure to Colorado State. Army had an often-frustrating season, filled with close games, but the Black Knights finally started winning some down the stretch and will make things challenging on UConn standout Joe Fagano (3,441 pass yards, 28 touchdowns, 1 interception). But Fagano will do enough as UConn makes history.
Prediction: UConn 31, Army 23
Pop-Tarts Bowl
BYU Cougars vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
America’s favorite newer bowl game features a really fun matchup for line-of-scrimmage enthusiasts. Will motivation be a concern? BYU felt it had a playoff-worthy profile, while Georgia Tech seemingly had a CFP path before losing three of its final four regular-season games. Coaches Kalani Sitake (BYU) and Brent Key (Georgia Tech) are true believers in physical play and out-toughing your opponent. Both teams feature talented running quarterbacks in Haynes King, who is playing his final college game, and Bear Bachmeier, a true freshman with 11 rushing touchdowns. BYU has a pretty significant advantage on defense, though. Star linebacker Jack Kelly and his teammates get it done.
Prediction: BYU 29, Georgia Tech 21
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. Fresno State Bulldogs
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
As a child of the ’90s who considers “The Chronic” one of the best-produced albums ever, I’m not picking against a team called the Bulldogs in the Snoop Dogg Bowl. Not happening! Fresno State thrives in the postseason, winning five of its past six bowl games, and first-year coach Matt Entz won two FCS national championships at North Dakota State. To be fair, Miami won this bowl game last year, and coach Chuck Martin’s teams are always at the line of scrimmage. But Fresno State is pretty stingy on defense and has some stars, such as cornerback Simeon Harris and lineman Finn Claypool. Fresno State takes this one.
Prediction: Fresno State 24, Miami (Ohio) 17
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
North Texas Mean Green vs. San Diego State Aztecs
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
This game could come down to which team responds better to recent disappointments. North Texas lost out on a CFP berth after falling to Tulane in the AAC title game. Coach Eric Morris is moving on to Oklahoma State, and North Texas’ roster situation will be worth monitoring. Standout quarterback Drew Mestemaker made his first career start in North Texas’ last bowl game, passing for 393 yards with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions in a loss to Texas State. San Diego State returns to the same stadium where it lost its regular-season finale to New Mexico, costing itself a shot at the Mountain West title game. The matchup features a top-five scoring defense in San Diego State (12.6 ppg) against the nation’s top scoring offense in North Texas (44.8 ppg). I’ll go with defense in a tight one.
Prediction: San Diego State 31, North Texas 28
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
Virginia Cavaliers vs. Missouri Tigers
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Virginia hasn’t really been in this position before, having to rebound from the disappointment of losing out on its first CFP opportunity. Coach Tony Elliott must rally his team as a good opportunity awaits to finish things out with a team-record 11th victory. Missouri’s four losses came against top-10 opponents at the time, and the Tigers have one of the nation’s best running backs in Ahmad Hardy, who has 1,560 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns in his first season as a Tiger. Coach Eliah Drinkwitz has won his past two bowl games with Missouri and should get a third, as the Tigers win a lower-scoring game.
Prediction: Missouri 26, Virginia 19
Kinder’s Texas Bowl
LSU Tigers vs. Houston Cougars
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
An LSU season that began with national championship aspirations ends with a quasi-road game against Houston in the Texas Bowl, which the Tigers were in — and lost — the last time they had a midseason coaching change in 2021. Houston took a big step in coach Willie Fritz’s second season, improving its win total from four to nine. The game’s key matchup could be LSU’s defense, which has been very good and will remain under the direction of coordinator Blake Baker, facing Conner Weigman, the former Texas A&M quarterback who had 2,475 passing yards and 21 touchdowns for the Cougars this fall. Ultimately, location and motivation swing the arrow toward Houston, which gets its 10th win and evens the all-time series with LSU at 2-2.
Prediction: Houston 23, LSU 17
Monday, Dec. 29
JLab Birmingham Bowl
App State Mountaineers vs. Georgia Southern Eagles
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Kudos to Appalachian State, which said yes when many others did not, and gave Georgia Southern an opponent to close out the season. These Sun Belt teams have already played, which isn’t ideal, but their first meeting delivered some late drama before Georgia Southern prevailed 25-23. Georgia Southern’s last four wins all came by seven points or fewer, while Appalachian State lost four games by eight points or fewer. Neither team is particularly strong on defense, but Georgia Southern boasts star power on offense with wide receiver Camden Brown, who has 1,049 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns, and adds to those totals in a win.
Prediction: Georgia Southern 37, Appalachian State 31
Tuesday, Dec. 30
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Coach Sonny Cumbie’s Bulldogs quietly rebounded nicely this fall, ensuring their first winning season since 2019. They also will be playing just 70 miles from campus and will have a significant crowd advantage, especially against a Coastal Carolina program going through a coaching change after Tim Beck’s firing. Louisiana Tech’s offense has had a few no-shows this season, but scored a total of 76 points in its past two games and has a deep and balanced rushing contingent with four ball carriers eclipsing 450 yards.
Prediction: Louisiana Tech 35, Coastal Carolina 24
Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
There will be plenty of orange in Nissan Stadium, although much of it won’t be cheering for Illinois, which caps a season that began with CFP hopes, was sidetracked sharply with a 53-point loss at Indiana but still ended with wins in three of the final four regular-season contests. Illini quarterback Luke Altmyer started his career in the SEC at Ole Miss and can finish it against an SEC opponent in Tennessee, which pursued him as a transfer target this spring after Nico Iamaleava‘s exit to UCLA. The Vols never really recovered from their early loss to Georgia and have much to sort out on defense, which ranks 91st nationally in points allowed. Expect a lot of scoring in this one, but Tennessee prevails behind quarterback Joey Aguilar.
Prediction: Tennessee 37, Illinois 30
Valero Alamo Bowl
USC Trojans vs. TCU Horned Frogs
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Placing too much emphasis on non-CFP bowls can be tricky, but this one feels important for Lincoln Riley and USC. The Trojans clearly improved this season, despite once again falling short of the CFP. They bring in the nation’s No. 1 recruiting class and should retain several key foundational players from this year’s roster. A road-like win against TCU would mean USC’s first 10-win season since 2022, and a likely top-15 finish. TCU can somewhat quietly finish with consecutive nine-win seasons. Opt-outs will be a storyline for USC with star wideout Makai Lemon and others not playing, but the Trojans should have enough to outlast the Horned Frogs.
Prediction: USC 37, TCU 30
Wednesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest Bowl
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Vanderbilt Commodores
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Vanderbilt lobbied aggressively for CFP inclusion, even though the team never entered serious consideration. Diego Pavia and the Commodores still can deliver a strong closing argument against an Iowa team led by the nation’s No. 8 scoring defense. Few players have transformed an entire program — the way it’s viewed, the way it sees itself — as much as Pavia at Vandy the past two seasons. Iowa will provide a nice test as the Hawkeyes pushed teams such as Indiana and Oregon, even in defeat. But Pavia and the Vanderbilt offense will be too much in this one, as the Commodores secure a once-unthinkable 11th win and a possible top-10 finish.
Prediction: Vanderbilt 34, Iowa 23
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Duke Blue Devils
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
The 2025 ACC champions and 2024 Big 12 champions meet in one of college football’s most iconic stadiums, for a Devils vs. Devils clash. Although Duke became the surprise ACC winner, it also seemingly underachieved this season, especially because quarterback Darian Mensah delivered on the hype with 3,646 passing yards, 30 touchdowns and only five interceptions. ASU will counter with quarterback Jeff Sims, who began his career at Georgia Tech before a challenging journey that culminated with a solid finish. The Sun Devils will need a strong defensive effort to slow down Mensah.
Prediction: Duke 35, Arizona State 31
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Michigan Wolverines vs. Texas Longhorns
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
The only question here is Texas’ motivation level, after missing out on the CFP for the first time since 2022, despite beating two playoff participants in No. 7 Texas A&M and No. 8 Oklahoma, as well as No. 14 Vanderbilt. The Longhorns have a much better profile than Michigan, which lost by double digits to the best three teams it faced and didn’t take advantage of a favorable schedule in quarterback Bryce Underwood‘s freshman season. Michigan capped 2024 with a surprise bowl win against an SEC opponent, but I really don’t see it happening again. Arch Manning accounts for three touchdowns, and Texas shuts down Underwood and U-M.
Prediction: Texas 28, Michigan 20
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Utah Utes
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
As Kyle Whittingham’s career winds down, a bowl win would be a fitting send-off for the future Hall of Fame coach. Whittingham dominated the postseason earlier in his career (11-1 in first 12 bowl games) but has struggled lately (five straight losses, including the 2023 Las Vegas Bowl). The Utes still should handle a Nebraska team that seems very much in flux, with its roster and coaching staff. Star running back Emmett Johnson is off to the NFL, and coach Matt Rhule has made several staff changes. Nebraska’s defense likely will have several problems with Devon Dampier. Utes roll.
Prediction: Utah 38, Nebraska 20
Friday, Jan. 2
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Rice Owls vs. Texas State Bobcats
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
The team opt-outs opened an opportunity for Rice, which will complete its first season under coach Scott Abell and seek the team’s first bowl victory since 2014. Rice has wins over UConn and Louisiana but really struggled defensively late in the season, which Texas State should be able to expose. Quarterback Brad Jackson and wide receiver Beau Sparks connect for two touchdowns as the Bobcats pull away.
Prediction: Texas State 41, Rice 24
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Navy Midshipmen vs. Cincinnati Bearcats
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
One of the last bowl games could be among the most fun, especially with the quarterback matchup of Navy’s Blake Horvath and Cincinnati’s Brendan Sorsby. Horvath has back-to-back 1,000-yard rushing seasons, while Sorsby finished the regular season with 2,800 passing yards and 27 touchdowns. Cincinnati’s poor finish is a concern, though, as the Bearcats didn’t eclipse 24 points in any of their four losses. Navy doesn’t take these games lightly, having won six of its past seven bowl games, including last year’s Armed Forces Bowl. Mids get it done.
Prediction: Navy 27, Cincinnati 24
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
From Egg Bowl disappointment to Mayo Bowl mania, Mississippi State is in the postseason as a fill-in team. How will the Bulldogs capitalize on their surprise opportunity? Despite a 5-7 record, Mississippi State competed much better this season under coach Jeff Lebby, and has the offensive talent to give Wake Forest some problems. Wake isn’t afraid to grind out wins with its defense and run game, led by Demond Claiborne. Coach Jake Dickert has done a great job in his first season, and he’ll cap it with a mayo dump.
Prediction: Wake Forest 31, Mississippi State 27
Trust & Will Holiday Bowl
Arizona Wildcats vs. SMU Mustangs
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
A lot can happen to both rosters between now and Jan. 2, but this appears to be one of the more evenly matched pairings in bowl season. Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita has seen it all during his career, and can secure the team’s second 10-win season in three years — and just the fifth in team history — with a victory in San Diego. SMU will counter with Kevin Jennings, who seeks postseason redemption after his rough performance in last year’s CFP. Both teams can defend well, too, and boast standouts, such as safeties Dalton Johnson (Arizona) and Ahmaad Moses (SMU). A tough call here, but I’ll go with Arizona in a close one.
Prediction: Arizona 30, SMU 24
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Dan Wetzel
The purpose of the College Football Playoff selection committee is to sort through the unsortable — deciding between two teams of similar accomplishment.
This sport is a spectacular mess, of course, famously and belovedly so. The FBS level has 136 teams playing 12 regular-season games competing for one championship. The schedules are disparate, even within the current oversize “conferences.”
No one would design such a thing. Big schools. Small schools. State schools. Religious institutions. Even three military academies. From L.A. (Los Angeles) to L.A. (Lower Alabama). It’s glorious.
If a proper computer formula exists to figure out who should or shouldn’t be in a playoff, none has earned the trust of the sport. College football, after all, ain’t much for college.
So, it has a selection committee — 13 people who make the final, difficult, no-truly-correct-answer call. Their thanks comes from a barrage of hate courtesy of whomever they didn’t choose.
That there is controversy, hard feelings and anger doesn’t mean the system isn’t working.
It’s a sign that it is.
A sport that used to leave unbeaten teams out of the title game is now arguing about 10-2 and 9-3 clubs. A postseason that was once a collection of mostly meaningless exhibition bowl games designed as tourism campaigns is now anchored by a 12-team, 11-game free-for-all.
At least half a dozen teams must believe they can actually win the national title. Maybe more. Four playoff games will be staged on campuses, not at antiseptic NFL stadiums. The title will be settled on the field. This is the good stuff.
It’s why everyone needs to exhale for a moment.
Don’t let the pursuit of (unachievable) perfection get in the way of progress. This is always going to be an imperfect operation.
Would it be better if the ACC’s tiebreaker system didn’t malfunction and both Miami (as ACC champ) and Notre Dame (as an at-large selection) were in the field? Of course. But the presence of James Madison and some Fighting Irish disappointment shouldn’t cause anyone to take a wrecking ball to this entire enterprise.
College athletics is famous for knee-jerk decisions that it comes to regret. It too often makes policy via emotional swings and selfish reasoning without vision for the future.
Leagues get blown up (or expanded) for basic cable subscriptions (which are already dwindling). Legal cases are waged on the idea NIL will decrease competitive balance (Indiana is currently ranked No. 1). Congress is lobbied with hysterics that the sport needs “saving” (all while interest, revenue and television ratings rise).
The latest overreaction is to kill off this 2-year-old playoff for a bigger model that will supposedly be controversy-free (impossible) — one with 24 teams, at least, or with four automatic bids to certain conferences or who knows what else.
The committee is the punching bag. Subjectivity is the wedge issue. Conspiracies are everywhere. Emotions are running hot.
Look, there is one sure way for major programs to get into this thing: win your conference. If not, then you get into the knife fight that is the at-large selection process. Anything can happen. Criteria can shift. Decisions can seem unfair or arbitrary.
If, like Notre Dame, you find more overall value in independence, then this is your trade-off. It isn’t going to work as you wish every time.
Are there improvements and tweaks that can be made? Of course.
The committee should no longer release weekly rankings during the back half of the season. A single verdict should come out at the end. The current setup is good for content (including here at ESPN, which broadcasts the weekly rankings), but it undermines the credibility of the process. The week-to-week contradictions are maddening and, even worse, can box in the committee’s final decision.
Bloated leagues could return to divisions in an effort to create scheduling structure or find other ways to fix tiebreakers (ahem, ACC).
Two rounds of home games would increase the importance of seeding and bring more campuses and local communities into the fold. That would serve fans and families rather than bowl directors.
Conference championship weekend could even be eliminated altogether; if Alabama can get beaten soundly and not drop, then was it even a real game? (And yes, BYU, we see you.) That would move the playoff up a week and allow for the semifinals on New Year’s Day and a title game in early January rather than during the heart of the NFL postseason.
Of course, ending conference title games would require leaving money on the table, not to mention unwinding complicated media and hosting contracts, so it’s a heavy lift.
The minor tweaks are fine, though, as long as the regular season continues to matter. That has to be the North Star. This committee maintained that by valuing Miami’s Week 1 victory over Notre Dame. Yes, it should have made that determination weeks earlier, but it’s never too late to do the right thing.
A playoff that gets so big where results don’t matter very much or, as the Big Ten proposal would have, where Michigan and Iowa are still alive via play-in rounds forever alters how the sport is played.
Better to have one or two bitter 10-2 teams out there at the end.
Better to have cries and screams and a little bit of infuriation.
Better to have those 13 people in a meeting room making a decision.
Because in this wonderfully chaotic and disorganized sport, the selection committee, to channel some Winston Churchill, might indeed be the worst system ever, except for all the others.
Terry Ryan is living out a hockey player’s dream. It’s just not the exact one he grew up dreaming.
One of the stars of the hit show “Shoresy,” the hockey-centered comedy that has acted as equal parts love letter to the sport and cultural tastemaker, Ryan will join his castmates (all of whom are also hockey players achieving various levels of success) on Dec. 10 at UBS Arena on Long Island as part of the Shoresy Fall Classic, a multistop tour across Canada and the United States where the cast plays games typically against the alumni of that NHL team.
“Aaron Asham is one of my best friends in the world. I played junior and pro with him,” Ryan said of the retired 15-year NHL veteran who played four seasons with the New York Islanders. “So I’m looking forward to that.”
The pace of play is higher than most people think heading in, the 48-year-old noted, adding “we’re not out there trying to hurt each other or anything, but it’s a step up from a regular shinny game.”
“It’s a very unique experience. I don’t know if I’ve ever come across anything like it whereby the fans are cheering for both teams,” he said. “Even though we lose — we’ve been losing most of the games — we’re not getting blown out, and I think people walk away with an appreciation that, you know, we’re all actors in the show, but we’re all hockey players. We’re a pretty good team. We hang in there.”
The event, which also includes a Q&A with the cast, was sparked by the massive popularity of the show, which will release its fifth season in Canada on Christmas Day and on Hulu in early 2026 (its parent show, “Letterkenny,” wrapped up with 12 seasons and 81 episodes).
As for Ryan, he was the No. 8 pick in the 1995 draft of the Montreal Canadiens, and achieved his dream of playing in the NHL — but played only eight games with the Habs. He then spent six seasons with different AHL teams after an ankle injury brought his NHL dreams to a halt.
The Newfoundland native continued to play in various leagues while pursuing another career — film and television. But not as an actor.
“I got an arts degree in folklore and English, and within that there’s a film studies certificate. I worked on a crew, I mean like location [scouting], production assistant, AD. I was like ‘jump how high’ for six years,” he said. “Then I spilled over, I did some stunts, and then because I have no tooth, I got to play some parts like, you know, British soldiers, crackheads, pimps, drug dealers, stuff like that. … My entrance into this world was a lot different than the other guys [on the Shoresy cast].”
Eventually, Ryan did cross paths with one Hollywood star, who took him under his wing.
“There’s a show on Netflix called ‘Frontier.’ I was on crew, I was waiting to get in the union. I met Jason Momoa. He came along with [producers] and gave me a chance,” Ryan said. “I had no tooth, Momoa said, ‘Keep the tooth out. I can get you some stunt gigs.’
“Five seconds into the show, I’m the very first face you see. It’s a British soldier begging for his life, and I’ve got no tooth obviously … they got me that role. That’s how I got in.”
Ryan and Momoa also shared a love for hockey. Ryan taught Momoa and members of the crew how to skate (in Momoa’s case, the finer points).
“I don’t know how many times we went out on the ice, maybe 100 times,” Ryan recalled.
Ryan also taught Momoa the intricacies of a hockey fight.
“When we first [fought], I just shook him and beat him in a fight,” Ryan said. “I said, ‘It’s all about balance, man. You can be as big as you want.’
“Anyway, he laughed … trust me, if he hit me with one, it wouldn’t matter. [Momoa] wanted to get in a hockey fight [in the second season of ‘Frontier’], so, like, I’m [wearing] the British red coat, and he pulls the thing over, and he simulates a hockey fight.”
Momoa helped Ryan get several stunt gigs and even hired Ryan as his assistant for a period of time. Eventually, “Letterkenny” called with the role of Ted Hitchcock, a lovable hockey player from Newfoundland with a penchant for “martoonies,” which led to “Shoresy.”
And now, the show and cast enjoy a level of success that allows them to play in hockey games against NHL players across North America, with thousands of people cheering them from the stands. In a very circuitous way, a version of Ryan’s hockey dreams did come true.
Jump ahead:
Games of the week
What I loved this weekend
Hart Trophy candidates
Social post of the week
Stick taps
Biggest games of the week
I’m getting into “watch every Colorado Avalanche game” territory. I saw them live for the first time this season at Madison Square Garden on Saturday, and it was incredibly fun. Nathan MacKinnon had a pair of goals, including a nasty backhand overtime winner under the crossbar that he made look absolutely effortless.
1:08
Nathan MacKinnon skates through Rangers defense to score dazzling OT winner
Nathan MacKinnon makes a sweet move and scores on the backhand to give the Avalanche an overtime win.
We’ve been focusing a lot on the lack of regulation losses for Denver’s team — only two so far this season. But we can now start keeping an eye on points in general, because the Avs are are currently on pace for 58 wins and 134 points this season.
That would be second-most points by any team in a season in NHL history, behind the 2022-23 Bruins (135).
If things keep rolling, the Avalanche have a chance to make history. They have build a solid foundation for it. They have the players. Could they do it?
Weeks in mid-December can sort of fly under the radar in the course of the regular season, but these are the ones where teams chasing history work in the shadows and build. The Avs visit the Nashville Predators on Tuesday, host the Florida Panthers on Thursday and then have the Preds at home Saturday. It could be a three-win week for the NHL’s premier team.
Other key games this week
Monday, 9 p.m. | ESPN+
Tuesday, 7 p.m. | ESPN+
Tuesday, 7 p.m. | ESPN+
Thursday, 7 p.m. | ESPN+
Thursday, 7 p.m. | ESPN
Thursday, 7 p.m. | ESPN+
Thursday, 8 p.m. | ESPN+
Saturday, 7 p.m. | ESPN+
Saturday, 8 p.m. | ESPN+
Sunday, 6 p.m. | ESPN+
What I loved this weekend
The Athletic’s Murat Ates wrote a story about the mental health journey of Winnipeg Jets forward Gabriel Vilardi. The story, which includes raw and honest reflection from Vilardi, is equal parts fascinating and emotional. This quote from Vilardi was particularly humbling and something that certainly many athletes probably go through during a game:
“For me, negative self-talk is not just panic attacks; it’s something that I deal with a lot. And it drags on. It starts with one play. Then it’s like, ‘Oh s—, I’ve got to make up for that play.’ Then it drags on to three shifts because you’re still thinking in your head that you’ve got to make up for it. Next thing you know, it’s a period and it’s like, ‘F—, I’ve only got two periods left.’ I was in my head the whole first period.”
Sports psychologist Dr. Alicia Naser — who works with NHL players such as Seattle Kraken forward Shane Wright and Calgary Flames center John Beecher along with other professional athletes — has helped to normalize the discussions, particular through her social media content, which includes bite-sized wisdom and actionable items related to mental health and performance that can benefit anyone watching or reading.
Hart Trophy contenders if the season ended today
Nathan MacKinnon times three. That’s it.
But really, MacKinnon obviously remains on the list. He’s currently on pace for 70 goals and 140 points this season; if he reaches those totals, he’d be the fifth player in NHL history to do it, joining Wayne Gretzky (who did it four times), Mario Lemieux (twice), Bernie Nicholls (1988-89) and Phil Esposito (1970-71). MacKinnon would also have the first 70-goal season since Teemu Selanne and Alexander Mogilny did it in 1992-93 (both with 76 goals).
As for the second contender, that goes to Connor McDavid. He pulled into second place in the points race, now six back of MacKinnon with 42; he also leads the league in assists (28).
Indeed, this might be the week it becomes a two-player race. For that reason, I’m giving one more nod in this section to both Connor Bedard and Macklin Celebrini, because one (or both) might be unseated as early as next week. I kind of hope I’m wrong though.
Social media post of the week
It definitely isn’t the 6-7 cam at MSG, or Sam Bennett taking part in the trend.
My choice this week is new hockey fan Big Z on TikTok. It feels as if every few years someone goes viral (at least in the hockey bubble) for finding out how exciting hockey is. It’s fun to live vicariously through someone who is experiencing the same joy we all once did as hockey fans.
Big Z’s joy over seeing Alex Ovechkin and Dustin Byfuglien deliver checks, or lamenting a Red Wings shootout loss (but still saying that he needs to buy a jersey), is fantastic.
Stick taps
The Washington Capitals have partnered with WWE to release a limited edition collab for John Cena’s final WWE match before he retires, taking place Saturday. The shirt features Cena wearing a Caps hat holding a towel in his iconic pose that reads “Let’s Go Caps.”
The time is now for an #ALLCAPS x @JohnCena collaboration in celebration of his final match!
Fans who purchase through the special link will receive the exclusive t-shirt and tickets to #CapsCanes this Thursday, Dec. 11.
🎟️ https://t.co/IzoZjSdSrq pic.twitter.com/iAkVHjBx12
— Washington Capitals (@Capitals) December 5, 2025
I’m all for more partnerships like this. City-specific merchandise is on the rise and often becomes a collector’s item. WWE also has championship belts specific to teams across multiple sports, including the NHL.
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