Kiley McDaniel covers MLB prospects, the MLB Draft and more, including trades and free agency.
Has worked for three MLB teams.
Co-author of Author of ‘Future Value’
In case you hadn’t heard, Aaron Judge entered the 2025 MLB playoffs with a checkered history of October results compared with his stellar regular-season résumé.
For his career, Judge’s OPS is 250 points lower in the postseason than in the regular season (the average regular-season-to-playoff OPS dropoff for hitters in 2024 was 18 points), and his struggles on the biggest stage have become a talking point nearly every October.
After his .184/.344/.408 slash line during the Yankees’ 2024 postseason run, Judge is hitting objectively well in the playoffs this year — posting a 1.024 OPS and collecting an MLB-leading eight hits in his first five games. But he isn’t hitting for much power, with just one extra-base hit (a double) in 21 plate appearances, and his team enters Game 3 of the American League Division Series on the brink of elimination.
As the Yankees try to battle back against the Toronto Blue Jays, we dug deep into each of Judge’s first 18 at-bats (and three walks) to see what we can learn about his October so far.
How is Judge being pitched in the playoffs? Is it different from the regular season? Why isn’t he hitting for power? Is it bad luck? And where could his postseason go from here — if the Yankees can stick around long enough for him to find his home run stroke?
How left-handed pitchers are approaching Judge
Judge vs. lefties in playoff career: 42 PA, .400/.500/.714, 19% K, 17% BB, 3 HR Judge vs. lefties this postseason: 8 PA, .500/.500/1.125, 13% K, 0% BB, 0 HR
Each pitcher has different strengths, but there are some clear trends that lefties are following when attacking Judge this month.
The game plan goes something like this: throw hard stuff (four-seam fastballs, sinkers, cutters) on his hands, largely down, then mix in softer stuff to keep him honest, locating those pitches down and on the corners — where he is least likely to do damage. If you miss, miss outside of the zone, not toward the middle. Don’t be afraid to nibble around the outside of the zone and live to fight another day.
That’s a solid plan against almost any hitter, but in this case, it means going hard inside against a 6-foot-7 slugger whose relative weaknesses will always include covering the plate against good stuff.
It’s telling that the two softer-throwing lefties Judge faced (Boston’s Connelly Early and Toronto’s Justin Bruihl) threw two fastballs out of their 10 total pitches and both missed off the plate inside, one missing so far inside that it hit Judge. Garrett Crochet, Aroldis Chapman, and Brendon Little were much more aggressive, likely because of their better fastballs.
How right-handed pitchers are approaching Judge
Judge vs. righties in playoff career: 241 PA, .192/.304/.409, 34% K, 13% BB, 13 HR Judge vs. righties this postseason: 13 PA, .400/.538/.400, 23% K, 15% BB, 0 HR
Judge has faced eight different righties this postseason, and those pitchers vary vastly in their pitch mix and the quality of their stuff, but right-handed pitchers seem to be using a decision tree to craft their game plan against him.
If the righty’s top offspeed pitch is a breaking ball (slider, sweeper, curve) then he is throwing that as often as he can while locating it down and away — and mixing it with fastballs inside to keep Judge from leaning over the plate. Here’s a look at Judge vs. breaking balls only.
If the righty’s top secondary pitch is a splitter — such as Toronto’s Kevin Gausman and Trey Yesavage in the first two games of the ALDS — then he is mixing splitters and sliders away with some fastballs that are mostly targeted inside.
But no matter their style, one common goal for all of these pitchers is not to make a mistake over the plate!
How does Judge’s regular-season history factor into this plan?
Though Judge’s October struggles have become a narrative over his career, any team setting up its pitching strategy for a series will game plan for the two-time American League MVP with a career 1.028 OPS and 368 home runs rather than treating him like the player with a .223 average and .787 OPS in 63 career playoff games.
And that starts with keeping the ball away from where Judge can do the most damage.
During the 2025 regular season, Judge faced 176 pitches (essentially one pitch every four plate appearances) that qualified as in the middle-middle zone — or, in more general speak, right down the middle.
Against those pitches, Judge had a 1.630 OPS and 15 homers, both figures were second best in baseball.
This is where Judge ranked, among all qualified hitters in MLB this season, measured by xwOBA:
Second best vs. middle-middle pitches
Best vs. pitches in the heart of the zone (a larger part of the strike zone than middle-middle)
Best per pitch vs. fastballs, second in overall value
Best per pitch and overall vs. sinkers
Best per pitch and overall vs. cutters
Imagine getting this scouting report as a pitcher before you face Judge in a playoff game. I wouldn’t throw him anything down the middle, either.
How Judge is handling pitches he should crush
Now for the twist: Judge has faced seven pitches in the playoffs that were in the middle-middle zone (one pitch every three plate appearances, so slightly more frequently than the regular season).
So far this postseason, Judge hasn’t put one of those pitches in play. He swung at five — fouled off four and whiffed at another — and took two middle-middle pitches for strikes.
This isn’t a trend I tried to identify in my research because the small sample means one home run on a center-cut ball would poke a hole in it, but in watching all of his playoff at-bats, I made too many of this sort of note: “target was [zone direction] corner, missed target to the middle of the zone, [nothing bad happened to the pitcher].”
So, yes, it’s a small sample, but October baseball is won and lost on small samples. Judge is getting pitched roughly how he was in the regular season (actually even a bit more hitter-friendly), but he hasn’t replicated his regular-season damage, especially when it comes to punishing mistakes thrown down the middle. Judge has performed basically the same (chase rate, xwOBA, etc.) as the regular season against noncenter-cut pitches, so not taking advantage of these mistakes is accounting for his dip in power in the playoffs this year.
Over 162 games, anyone putting up an OPS over 1.000 is having a very productive season — even if it’s all coming from singles and a few doubles — but the heat has been turned up with the Yankees facing elimination, and the offense needs to deliver, with Judge at the heart of it. This team needs Judge to punish mistakes and create some souvenirs or he is at risk of having another October disappointment added to his résumé.
NEW YORK — Mike Sullivan coached the Pittsburgh Penguins for 10 seasons, leading them to two Stanley Cup championships. On Tuesday night at Madison Square Garden, he watched them ruin his debut as the New York Rangers‘ latest head coach.
Sullivan admitted it was a peculiar feeling having Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang and others he coached in Pittsburgh suddenly become his opponents.
“I mean, obviously it’s different. It’s different. I knew that was going to be the case,” he said after Pittsburgh’s 3-0 victory on the opening night of the 2025-26 NHL season. “But I’m excited about the group we have here in front of me with the Rangers. I’m looking forward to working with this group.”
The Rangers were shut out by goalie Arturs Silovs (22 saves) and watched forward Justin Brazeau score two goals in the Penguins’ win. They were outshot 15-5 in the third period and couldn’t muster anything consistent offensively in Sullivan’s debut.
“Well, I think my first observation is we got a long way to go to become the team we want to become. Some of it I think we can iron out, but certainly we’ve got a ways to go,” said Sullivan, who will coach Team USA in the 2026 Winter Olympic men’s hockey tournament in Italy. “I’m not going to overreact to it. It’s one game. We’ve got a lot of hockey to play,” he said. “So is it disappointing? Yeah. We’re going to see what we can take from it. We’ve got to move on.”
Sullivan and the Penguins agreed to part ways in April despite his being under contract through the 2026-27 season. Hired in 2015-16, Sullivan was the franchise’s most successful coach with 409 wins, only the 14th coach in NHL history to win 400 games with one team. Pittsburgh won back-to-back Stanley Cups in 2016 and 2017 with Sullivan.
Days later, after he left the Penguins, Sullivan was hired by the Rangers to replace coach Peter Laviolette, signing a five-year contract that made him the NHL’s highest-paid coach. Sullivan, 57, had previously served as an assistant coach with New York from 2009 to 2013, during which time he coached Rangers GM Chris Drury as a player.
Penguins captain Crosby acknowledged it was a different feeling having Sullivan behind the Rangers’ bench instead of his.
“I just go out there and compete, but it’s always weird that first little bit,” he said.
For Crosby, it wasn’t just seeing Sullivan coaching the opponents. Sullivan brought former Penguins assistants David Quinn and Ty Hennes with him to New York.
While Sullivan took the loss against his former team, new Penguins coach Dan Muse earned a victory against his. Muse was an assistant coach under Laviolette for two seasons in New York and reportedly interviewed for the vacancy before Sullivan was hired. Crosby was happy to get Muse the win.
“Every team will tell you, especially early in the season, it’s not going to be perfect. You’re just trying to be on the same page as much as possible. And I feel like he prepared us well to start the year,” Crosby said.
Pittsburgh had Crosby, Malkin and Letang in its starting lineup, three players who have been on the Penguins team together since 2007.
“We had three guys that have been playing together for 20 years, and I thought it was important that they get to start the game together,” Muse said.
DETROIT — The Seattle Mariners have heard it for years. They are the only team that has never made it to the World Series. After a telltale win in Detroit on Tuesday, the Mariners are one win from getting closer to sending that bit of trivia in obsolescence than they’ve been in 24 years.
All it took was an 8-4 win over the Tigers in Game 3 of the ALDS that gave the Mariners a 2-1 lead in the series and emblematic of what they have become since the roster was boosted by midseason additions.
“Huge game, a lot of momentum,” Mariners starter Logan Gilbert said. “I’ve been saying it for a while: This is the most complete team I’ve been on and seen.”
It was very much a complete victory for the Mariners, who opened an 8-1 lead after a rain delay of nearly three hours before quashing a ninth-inning Tigers rally.
It wasn’t just the pitching of Gilbert or the end of game door slam from closer Andres Munoz or the ongoing long ball heroics of AL MVP candidate Cal Raleigh. It was all of that and more.
“One through nine, guys had good at-bats,” Raleigh said. “And that’s kind of what we’re preaching.”
Gilbert put up seven sterling innings, striking out seven. Raleigh hit his second career postseason home run and first on the heels of his historic 60-homer season. J.P. Crawford enjoyed a perfect night in the nine-hole that included a homer. And trade acquisition Eugenio Suarez launched a home run.
“We’ve been battling all along getting to this point,” Suarez said. “Being one step closer to going to the championship, we’re not done with the job yet. We have to continue playing like this.”
The Mariners got contributions up and down the lineup. They scored on the three long balls but also went 4-for-9 with runners in scoring position and scored two runs in the third thanks to aggressive baserunning. They quashed Detroit’s late push with a game-ending double play.
The Mariners won by getting contributions across the board, from nearly every player and in every phase of the game.
“That’s the team that we are,” Crawford said. “We create chaos, and we keep the line moving.”
Seattle entered the season drawing plaudits for a standout starting rotation and star players in Raleigh and Julio Rodriguez, but there were concerns about lineup depth and offensive consistency.
The Mariners’ offense improved, but the rotation fell short at times because of injury issues to George Kirby and Gilbert. But in July, the team started to get healthier, and before the trade deadline dealt for Suarez and first baseman Josh Naylor. Suddenly, a roster with clear strengths but just as clear holes started to look very complete.
That revised version of the Mariners was on display in Game 3, moving Seattle one win from reaching the ALCS for the first time since 2001. It’s one victory that will erase a little more of so much bad history.
“We got a tough road ahead of us,” Raleigh said. “Really tough pitching tomorrow. You know it’s going to be a challenge. We got to bring it tomorrow. We can’t take a game off.”
The Mariners will send righty Bryce Miller to the mound in Game 4 on Wednesday. He’ll face Detroit’s Casey Mize and a Tigers team that, in scoring three ninth-inning runs that forced Mariners manager Dan Wilson to summon Munoz from the bullpen, showed that they will not go quietly.
“We’ve earned our way here and we’ve had to play more and more back-against-the-wall-type games,” Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said. “I know our guys are going to be ready.”
NEW YORK — Aaron Judge hit a tying homer and drove in four runs during a clutch performance for the ages, and the New York Yankees staved off elimination by rallying from five runs down to defeat the Toronto Blue Jays 9-6 on Tuesday night in Game 3 of their AL Division Series.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. launched a go-ahead homer in the fifth inning and the Yankees took advantage of two Toronto errors to avoid a three-game sweep. They scored eight unanswered runs and pulled to 2-1 in the best-of-five series, with Game 4 on Wednesday night in the Bronx.
“We need another one tomorrow,” manager Aaron Boone said. “We’ll enjoy this for about 10 minutes and get ready for tomorrow.”
Judge went 3-for-4 with an intentional walk and scored three times, also making critical plays with his glove and legs as fans chanted “MVP! MVP!” After struggling at the plate in previous postseasons, he is 7-for-11 in this series (.636) with five RBIs and three walks.
“Tonight was special, but there’s still more work to be done,” the Yankees’ captain said. “Hopefully we have some more cool moments like this the rest of the postseason.”
With the season on the line, New York starter Carlos Rodón gave up six runs and six hits in 2⅓ innings — but five Yankees relievers bailed him out as they combined for 6⅔ scoreless innings. Tim Hill got four outs for the win, and David Bednar worked 1⅔ perfect innings for his second playoff save as New York improved to 3-0 in elimination games this postseason.
It was the Yankees’ largest comeback in an elimination game, and tied for their second biggest in any postseason game.
Toronto hadn’t lost all season when leading by at least four runs.
“Kind of just didn’t play our game, really,” manager John Schneider said. “Their bullpen did a really good job, and we just gave them extra outs.”
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit an early two-run homer and Ernie Clement had four hits for the AL East champion Blue Jays, who squandered a golden opportunity to put away the Yankees as Toronto tries to reach its first American League Championship Series since 2016.
Consecutive doubles by Trent Grisham and Judge to start the third began New York’s comeback from a 6-1 deficit. Later in the inning, Judge stayed in a rundown between third base and home plate long enough to allow Cody Bellinger to reach third. That became important when Bellinger scored on Giancarlo Stanton’s sacrifice fly against Toronto starter Shane Bieber, who lasted 2⅔ innings.
Stanton also had an RBI single in the first after Blue Jays second baseman Isiah Kiner-Falefa committed a fielding error against his former team.
With the Yankees trailing 6-3 in the fourth, third baseman Addison Barger dropped Austin Wells’ wind-blown popup for another costly error with one out. Grisham walked, and right-hander Louis Varland was brought in to face Judge, who turned on an 0-2 fastball clocked at 100 mph off the inside corner and somehow kept it fair, launching a three-run drive that clanged high off the left-field foul pole.
“He made a really good pitch look really bad,” Varland said.
Judge tossed his bat aside and gestured to teammates on the bench as the sellout crowd of 47,399 burst into a frenzy.
“It’s an amazing swing,” Boone said. “That’s shades of Edgar Martínez right there, taking that high-and-tight one and keeping it fair down the line. Manny Ramirez used to do that really well, too. But just a great swing on a pretty nasty pitch, obviously.”
The right fielder then made a diving catch with a runner at second in the fifth, drawing more “MVP” chants.
Chisholm gave the Yankees their first lead of the series with a solo homer off Varland in the bottom half. Amed Rosario doubled and scored on Wells’ two-out single to make it 8-6, and Ben Rice added a sacrifice fly in the sixth that scored Judge after he was intentionally walked with one out and nobody on base.
Call it the ultimate sign of respect. Or perhaps, fear.
Guerrero went full-out Superman while diving across home plate to score on Clement’s single in the third, and Anthony Santander’s two-run single capped a four-run inning that made it 6-1.
Rookie right-hander Cam Schlittler will start Wednesday night for New York, coming off a dominant performance in a winner-take-all wild-card series game against rival Boston last Thursday at Yankee Stadium.
Toronto will go with a bullpen game, using Varland as an opener and potentially left-hander Eric Lauer as the bulk reliever.