
Why Wrigley Field has turned into a hitter’s worst nightmare — and what it means for this October and beyond
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Jesse RogersOct 8, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
Close- Jesse joined ESPN Chicago in September 2009 and covers MLB for ESPN.com.
CHICAGO — “That is clobbered. Right-center field. That one’s back, Garcia near the wall and … he reaches out and makes the catch. And Tucker absolutely annihilated that.
“There’s a welcome-to-Wrigley Field moment.”
That was the call by Chicago Cubs play-by-play announcer Jon Sciambi on April 7 when Kyle Tucker flew out against the Texas Rangers after hitting a ball 104.6 mph with a launch angle of 29 degrees and an expected batting average of .880. Instead of clearing the fence, the ball dropped into the glove of right fielder Adolis Garcia — courtesy of the wind, which was blowing in at 17 mph. It was Tucker’s fourth game in his new home ballpark.
“That was an early one I can recall,” the low-key Tucker said this week. “I hit it pretty good off of [Nathan] Eovaldi. It didn’t go out.”
It would be the first of several balls Tucker hit well this season that died on the warning track — and he’s not alone. Once known for high-scoring, back-and-forth games, Wrigley Field has become one of the tougher parks for hitters due to a shift in the wind in recent seasons.
In 81 games played on the North Side this year, including three in the wild-card round last week (the Cubs opened the season with two home games in Japan), the wind blew in 51 times and 12 games featured a right-field-to-left-field crosswind. It only blew out in 19 games. In 2024, the wind blew in 39 times compared with out 21 and 21 games with a crosswind.
“The last two years, it’s blown in, in the summer,” veteran Cubs outfielder Ian Happ said. “When it’s gotten hot, it’s blown in. And that’s basically the opposite of what it was traditionally. Now, when it’s cool, it blows out.
“There doesn’t seem to be a rhyme or reason that we know of but it’s been different.”
Cubs head groundskeeper Dan Kiermaier also can’t pinpoint the reason for the shift, but the man who studies wind patterns for the team can confirm that it is a real trend and not just hitters noticing when the wind works against them.
“It’s kind of bewildering. All my years prior to these past two years, the wind would blow out in the summer. I don’t have a backstory or anything. I can’t really put a finger on why it is the way it is the last couple of years.”
Happ and his fellow hitters are hoping for a shift outward when the National League Division Series resumes Wednesday night at Wrigley as temperatures are expected in the low 60s, but he’s not counting on it. Warm or cool, the Friendly Confines has not been a friend to hitters.
“More than any park I’ve ever played in,” 40-year-old Justin Turner said. “You can’t try to do something different. Hopefully it’s hit hard under the wind and away from a defender.”
Wrigley Field ranked fourth worst for hitters this year in extra distance a ballpark provides, according to Statcast, based on elements that don’t include the temperature. Last year, it ranked 29th. In or out on Wednesday, the Cubs need some runs to stay alive in the postseason as they’re down 2-0 in their best-of-five series against the Milwaukee Brewers. They should have an edge dealing with the home elements considering all the time and energy the team has devoted to it.
“Embrace Wrigley,” hitting coach Dustin Kelly dubbed it. “Instead of shying away and saying the wind is going to kill us today, how do we flip that and use the wind to our advantage today.”
How it impacts hitters
After playing the first two games of the NLDS at Milwaukee’s climate-controlled American Family Field, the initial adjustments for dealing with conditions at Wrigley Field will begin far before the first pitch of Game 3 is thrown.
During their hitters meetings before every home game, Kelly shows a graphic of which way the wind is blowing that day. It comes courtesy of Kiermaier, the brother of former major leaguer Kevin Kiermaier. It’s as detailed as it can be, but Chicago isn’t exactly the most predictable of cities when it comes to its weather.
“It’ll switch,” Kelly said. “Our predictions aren’t always perfect but you’re trying to be as prepared for it as you can.”
For some hitters, thinking about the direction of the wind starts well before they get to the park.
“When I drive down Lake Shore Drive and see if the lake is calm or not,” Happ said with a smile.
Dansby Swanson added: “You can’t have it consume you, but it’s also reality. You would be foolish as a player to not take it into consideration when you go play.”
Kelly believes Swanson has been particularly impacted by wind taking away would-be extra-base hits, especially for a right-handed hitter. Just as it did for Tucker against Eovaldi, the ball often dies in right-center — and that was one of Swanson’s preferred places to drive baseballs before coming to Chicago.
“He was really good at it in Atlanta,” Kelly said. “There’s a jet stream that works well for that. He doesn’t have that here.”
“I can’t remember the last time I hit a double to right-center,” Swanson said. “It’s definitely caused its fair share of frustration.”
Of course the wind plays the same for the opponent as it does for Cubs hitters, so in one sense it evens out on a given day — but the difference for opposing hitters is that they’re at Wrigley Field for three games, not 81. Still, Swanson takes some solace in knowing that he is not alone in feeling the frustration of a well-hit ball that results in an out instead of extra bases.
“[Juan] Soto and [Giancarlo] Stanton hit some balls pretty hard last season that stayed in the park,” Swanson recalled. “You could see it in their faces.
“I laugh and I’m like, ‘Not here, buddy.'”
So what’s the goal as a hitter when the wind is blowing in? Happ says the tendency is to try to pull the ball, using a player’s strength to that side of the field to hit through the wind. That’s a mistake.
“As a hitter, try to fight that and stay in the middle of the field,” he said. “Best thing you can do is stay with your approach and not worry about it. Easier said than done when you’re looking out there looking for hits.”
How it impacts pitchers
Though a weather report showing the wind blowing in can ruin the day for a hitter, it is always welcome news for the pitchers heading to the mound at Wrigley.
In the 51 games when it did blow in this season, the Cubs and their opponent combined to average just 7.4 runs per game. Those numbers are a stark difference from when the wind isn’t working to a pitcher’s advantage: Teams combined to average 12.4 runs per game when the wind was blowing out, and just under 10 runs when it was deemed a crosswind.
“It could be your best friend or worst nightmare,” St. Louis Cardinals left-hander Matthew Liberatore said. “I remember a ball that Patrick Wisdom hit (in 2024) that was 110 mph at 35 degrees (launch angle). Everyone dropped their head and thought it was gone. It was a routine pop fly to left field. The next time I was there, balls were flying out everywhere.”
For better or worse — depending on the day — the Cubs employ several fly ball pitchers, including Shota Imanaga. Seventeen of the 31 home runs he allowed this season came at home.
“My job is to have them hit fly balls that die on the warning track,” Imanaga said through the team interpreter.
Righty Andrew Kittredge, who was acquired at the trade deadline this year, learned quickly how unpredictable that job can be at Wrigley Field simply by being surrounded by his teammates in the bullpen.
“Someone in the bullpen usually comments on it in the first inning,” he said. “I try not to pay too much attention to it. I can’t let that dictate how I pitch a hitter.”
Catchers have an even more mixed feeling working at Wrigley Field since they would love to see the Wrigley flags blowing out when they are batting, but also know the added challenges those days bring for the pitchers they are working with from behind the plate.
“I look at it every inning,” Cubs catcher Carson Kelly said. “More defensively because if there is a fly ball somewhere where the wind is blowing against it, it might come back to you at some point.
“It’s all-hands-on-deck when a ball goes up in the air.”
What it means for free agency
Whenever the final out of the Cubs’ 2025 season comes, Chicago will immediately be in the offseason spotlight with Tucker likely to be one of this winter’s highest-paid free agents, whether that contract comes from the Cubs or another suitor.
The high-profile free agency comes at a time when the hitting environment at Wrigley Field seems to be a topic among agents more than ever.
After Cody Bellinger hit 26 home runs for the Cubs in 2023, he signed a three-year, $60 million deal with opt-outs, thinking even better offensive days were ahead. But that’s just about the time the conditions began to shift against hitters, and Bellinger hit just 18 home runs in 2024 before being traded to the Yankees over the winter.
Kelly thinks the wind shift in 2024 impacted Bellinger as much as anyone.
“I love him and he’s one of my favorite players I’ve ever coached, it was Belli,” Kelly said. “The way that his swing plays. He doesn’t hit balls 112 or 113 mph. He’s a plus contact, launch-angle guy, but with the wind blowing in from right, it cuts down that ball that is hit at 102 mph at 28 degrees. That’s a homer in a lot of places.”
In fact, Bellinger hit 18 home runs in 80 home games with the Yankees this season and an additional 11 on the road.
Bellinger is represented by Scott Boras, who also is the agent for Red Sox third baseman Alex Bregman. When the Cubs were recruiting Bregman to play for them during free agency, they had one thing working against them compared to the team he eventually chose: Wrigley Field vs. Fenway Park.
Bregman wanted more guaranteed dollars to sign with the Cubs — at least five years’ worth — but was willing to take a shorter deal in Boston, with opt-outs, because it has a better hitting environment, according to sources familiar with the situation. Bregman compiled an 0.821 OPS this season, his highest since 2019, and seems likely to opt out of his three-year, $120 million deal.
“I don’t think it’s shying hitters away, but guys are more aware of it now,” Kelly said. “Agents are aware of it.”
Perhaps no player in Chicago is more aware of how the Wrigley wind can affect a player and change over time than Happ, a switch-hitter who has been with the team since 2017. After signing a three-year contract to stay with the Cubs in 2023, Happ will hit free agency again following next season. Happ was asked how the conditions at Wrigley might impact a player who is headed to the open market, like Tucker will be in November.
“Expected [stats] help tell a different story going into free agency, but it doesn’t factor in that you know the wind is blowing in,” Happ said. “Mentally, it’s challenging.”
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Sports
Of love and linebackers: The challenges of a college football Saturday wedding
Published
5 hours agoon
October 9, 2025By
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Ryan McGee
Oct 9, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
“Dearly beloved, we are gathered here today in the sight of God …”
Ref, are you blind?!
“Marriage is a sacred and joyous covenant, which should be entered into reverently …”
We’re never entering the end zone …
“Marriage has been guarded and esteemed through the ages for the stability and happiness it brings to the individual, the family and the community …”
This esteemed DB can’t guard any individual …
“The uniting of these two people in heart, body and mind is an occasion of great significance, which we can all celebrate …”
Yes! Touchdown! War Eagle!
The three pillars of autumn in America are the colors of fall foliage, the traditional colors of one’s chosen college football allegiance and the colors of bridesmaids dresses, bow ties and bridal gowns. For as surely as the sun shall rise and set on October Saturdays, those days shall be packed with the shifting hues of the trees around us, incredibly crucial midseason college football contests with immeasurable postseason impact, and yes, more weddings taking place in more venues than at any other time of year.
Forget Texas vs. Oklahoma, or even Republicans vs. Democrats. Because at this time of year the greatest divide in this great nation of ours is about an event planner that collides like Jadeveon Clowney hitting a running back in the Outback Bowl.
Fall weddings vs. college football.
As this season hits mid-October and Week 7, every game matters much more than they have all autumn long. Those teams with College Football Playoff hopes can’t afford another loss (we’re looking at you, Alabama, playing at Missouri, and LSU, hosting South Carolina) and we have also officially entered the six-win vs. six-loss bowl eligibility-or-not stanza of the fall.
But all of that potentially season-altering stuff is happening at the exact same time as thousands of life-altering stuffs are coming down aisles from coast to coast.
“This is a test of true loves,” Clemson coach and admitted wedding reception dance enthusiast Dabo Swinney said when asked this summer about those Saturdays when exchanging the possessions of two hearts conflicts with exchanging possessions of the football. “She or he might be the love of your life now. But for that groom or that bride who has a Clemson tiger paw tattoo, they have loved this team longer than they have loved them, probably. Listen, marriage is all about compromise. You’re going to get married in the fall around here? Well, you’re jumping right into that lesson about compromise right off the bat!”
“I know this. You’re going to find out who in your family actually loves you,” added Missouri head coach Eliah Drinkwitz, father of four (potential) future brides. “Because if you’re getting married on an Alabama game weekend, I’m betting that one uncle who named his dogs Bear and Saban, he’s probably not coming.”
Herein lies the rub play
According to the annual report of wedding hub theknot.com, this Saturday, Oct. 11, is the third most popular wedding date of 2025, ranking behind only Sept. 20 and Oct. 25. In fact, the top five are all fall dates, the one September Saturday joined by all four in October. During her research, Knot Worldwide associate editor Chapelle Johnson discovered that this all represents a significant audible when it comes to booking nuptials. Fall didn’t rise to the top of the matrimonial timetable until 2015, when it overtook summertime as the prime time to trade rings. As recently as 2009, a whopping 41% of betrothals took place between Memorial Day and Labor Day. Now that trend has shifted more than Peyton Manning changing plays pre-snap.
Why? Johnson suggests it’s because of the cooler weather and the amazing paint-brushed palette those fall leaves provide, the perfect backdrop for big outdoor events. You know, the exact same reasons those days are perfect for college football.
The fall is so alluring, in fact, that even the daughter of the face and voice of college football — Elizabeth Davis, aka Daughter of Rece — couldn’t resist the marital magic of September’s final weekend. Dad even christened the event with one of his legendary “College GameDay” show opens, written as if her alma mater was facing off against her new husband’s. At least the bride was kind enough and smart enough to book the wedding on a Sunday.
So, schedule rubs be damned, newlyweds — even those who have long been wedded to their football-playing institutions of higher learning — make it work.
“The Penn State football schedule rules the wedding planning schedule in our area,” said Kit Henshaw, general manager and partner at the Mount Nittany Overlook, a venue prized for fall weddings because it sits on the ridge of college football’s most famous mountain, looking down into Happy Valley’s pinwheel of petioles every fall. “Most people avoid Penn State football home game weekends, but lots of weddings occur on away game weekends because of the beautiful fall colors and weather.”
“We have a bride who has just scheduled her wedding for Aug. 1 for this very reason, to be ahead of the football Saturdays,” said Whitney Skipper, founder, CEO and event and design curator at Poppies and Peonies, an event planner and floral designer in Anderson, South Carolina, located in the shadow of Clemson’s Death Valley. Skipper is a Clemson alum. “For many brides, they would be taking more than one team schedule into account. But we do love fall weddings,” she said. “It is a beautiful time to celebrate, to be outside and to use florals and decor in warm, comforting colors.”
As September rolled into October and football/wedding season began their coupled march down the field, we reached out to wedding planners and venues in college towns around the country asking how it’s done, why people do it and what the biggest issues to overcome are. In the end, three prevailing problems were continually mentioned: game-day traffic in relatively small college towns, combating booked-up rooms and jacked-up rates, and yeah, getting that uncle who Coach Drink warned us about to pay attention.
“Some wedding couples do avoid Duck or Beaver game days, especially if their guests will need hotel accommodations,” said Jenni Hendricks, general manager of the River Valley Inn, one of the most coveted espousal settings in Eugene, Oregon. “I was actually in a wedding where the couple moved the ceremony time because the kickoff time changed. That said, not everyone avoids game days entirely. Some couples hope that a venue might be more available — or even more affordable — because it’s competing with the football crowd. It really depends on the couple and their guest list.”
The rulebook
When that guest list is the football crowd, even those couples who might not be the biggest college football aficionados learn to lean into the spirit of the game instead of fighting it. A fall equinox etiquette has emerged, written out in bridal magazines and even publications such as the monthly bible of SEC/ACC country, Southern Living.
It was one year ago that Southern Living editor Kaitlyn Yarborough, a Georgia alum living in Austin, Texas, laid out the “7 Unspoken Rules Of Having A Wedding During Football Season In The South.” She warned brides not to have their feelings hurt when they receive some declined RSVPs or if they catch those who did say yes sneaking a peek at their phones for score updates. She also suggested some theming, from a football-shaped groom’s cake and the band or DJ announcing game updates to countering a “clear no-phones rule” protocol during the ceremony by providing TVs at the reception, especially on rivalry weekends.
“We have a big group coming from Wisconsin looking to shake things up at the game this month on Saturday, after a traditional wedding ceremony on Friday evening,” explained Fiona Gledhill, the sales and event manager at River Valley Inn, looking ahead to Oregon‘s home game with Wisconsin on Oct. 25. “This couple, who both attended the University of Oregon and are proud UO Ducks fans, are looking forward to dragging the bride’s Wisconsin Badger-fanatic family over to a postnuptial tailgate and nail-biter at the lauded Autzen Stadium. To top the weekend competition off right, the losing team’s side of the family will be picking up the tab at a post-game-day brunch party.”
One of Skipper’s Clemson clients tried to do the right thing and booked a post-regular-season, closer-to-Christmas Saturday last Dec. 21. Then the Tigers made it into the CFP and their first-round game at Texas fell directly on top of the ceremony. “The wedding was at a beautiful local inn that had the game on a large TV in the lobby,” Skipper said. “We definitely had to pull some of our guests back into the event a couple of times for moments like introduction of the bride and groom. The guests were kind and agreeable, but they were definitely wanting to check the game as often as possible.”
For those who aren’t blindsided by the surprise of a postseason run, it is best to forewarn guests of the gridiron/conjugality double booking. That was the tack of Bailey Graham and Evan Howard, a pair of hardcore Tennessee fans who scheduled their 2024 ceremony for Oct. 19 at 3 p.m. in Townsend, Tennessee. That’s 33 miles from Neyland Stadium, where the Big Orange was hosting Alabama in their annual Third Saturday in October rivalry game … at 3:30 p.m.
When friends and family visited their event website page at theknot.com, they were greeted with a warning that was posted just below their engagement photo and way above the actual event information.
“The day of our wedding is the same day as Tennessee vs. Alabama football.” After a reminder that that would create hotel and travel snags, they wisely added: “We will have two projectors at the venue for your viewing pleasure.”
They did indeed. And when their beloved Vols upset the hated Tide, it only added to the magic of the evening. “Everyone was freaking out,” the bride texted earlier this week from Hawai’i, where the couple was celebrating a one-year anniversary/belated honeymoon. “It was such a good game. Hopefully, we can do again in a few weeks!”
To clarify, she means beat Alabama again, not get married again. Clearly, they have that part down pretty well, texting with a mai tai in their other hand.
Love wins … and hopefully your team does, too
Banging on those who choose to be wed on the same Saturday that the home team is going to war has become a low-hanging college football internet pinata. Some have even starred in “College GameDay” features on the topic, perhaps even a particularly handsome ESPN senior writer with glasses. (See video at the top of this story.)
But full disclosure, I empathize with those who are ripped for their ritual timing because, you see, I am one of them. I married my lovely Knoxville-raised bride, whom I met when we were both students at Tennessee, on Nov. 21, 1998. We said “I do” around 6 p.m., which was just at the start of the fourth quarter of a contest between our alma mater, undefeated and pushing toward an eventual national title, and a Kentucky Wildcats team that was led by quarterback and soon-to-be-No. 1 NFL draft selection Tim Couch.
Why in the world did we do this? Because back in the day, I covered auto racing full time and we had to wait until NASCAR, aka the longest season in professional sports, finally took the checkered flag, and that wasn’t until mid-November.
Me and my groomsmen, nearly all Tennessee grads, damn near missed kickoff, er, the start of the ceremony, because we were crowded around the AV club-looking TV strapped to a cart that we found in the church office and rolled into our dressing room. Then, as the wedding video reveals, mere moments after I walked back up the aisle as a married man, we all ran back down the hallway to that same room to see if the Vols had held on. They had.
Playing at the same time were No. 4 Florida and No. 5 Florida State. My future in-laws, all from Florida, weren’t happy about that. Also in action were Wake Forest and Georgia Tech. My brother and best man, a Wake grad, and all my cousins from Atlanta weren’t happy about that. East Carolina, trying to win a sixth game and perhaps receive a bowl invite, was in the middle of beating Memphis. My father, the Pirate, wasn’t happy to miss that. Pops was also a college football official, an ACC field judge, so we cost him a game assignment, not to mention the check that came with it.
It was 1998. We had no smartphones. No earbuds. No ESPN apps. We had no digital TV projectors. We only had people frantically scrolling through sports talk AM radio as they drove from the ceremony to the reception, where we had the band play “Rocky Top” while my overserved uncle gleefully clogged.
But you know what? My family still loves me. My in-laws still like me. My marriage is still going strong. And all these years later, we still laugh when we talk about me and my dudes running up and down the hallway of the church to see if Tee Martin & Co. could keep Tennessee’s undefeated season going. Tim Couch once introduced me to a Kentucky friend of his by saying, “I did McGee the favor of playing like crap against Tennessee in the first half so he wouldn’t have to get in trouble wearing a radio earpiece or something during his wedding.”
Hopefully, your wedding will always be remembered as one of the greatest days of your life. And if you love college football as much as so many of us do, then that team you’ve dedicated yourself to, a marriage in itself, has likely provided you with so many more of the dates on your greatest days list.
So, it only stands to reason that by combining the two, no matter how much of a controversial hassle it might be, it’s guaranteed to be a pretty damn perfect fall Saturday.
Even if your uncle isn’t looking.
Sports
Eichel lands 8-year extension with Golden Knights
Published
5 hours agoon
October 9, 2025By
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Jack Eichel has signed an eight-year contract extension with the Vegas Golden Knights that carries a $13.5 million average annual value, the team announced Wednesday.
The agreement came just hours before the Golden Knights open their season against the Los Angeles Kings in Las Vegas. The sides intensified talks as training camp opened, with both focused on getting a long-term deal secured ahead of the season.
The extension begins in the 2026-27 season, and Eichel will be 38 when it ends. He will be the third-highest player in terms of AAV in the league, following Kirill Kaprizov ($17 million) and Leon Draisaitl ($14 million) going forward.
Eichel, 28, was entering the final year of an eight-year contract that carried a $10 million cap hit, a deal he originally signed with the Buffalo Sabres, who drafted him.
Buffalo traded Eichel to the Golden Knights in 2021.
The deal stemmed from his desire to get an artificial disk replacement (ADR) to correct a neck injury, a procedure that never had been done on an NHL player and therefore was considered a risk. Eichel’s agent, Pat Brisson, helped facilitate the trade.
The Golden Knights allowed Eichel to get the surgery, which was such a success that several other NHL players have had it.
The U.S.-born center helped Vegas win its first Stanley Cup in 2023, scoring 26 points in 22 games during the playoff run.
“On or about four years ago, Jack was getting the first ADR surgery for an NHL active player,” Brisson told ESPN on Wednesday. “He is a pioneer. Vegas stepped to the plate and helped the process occur. They’ve since won the Cup. It’s a great place for him, and he’s really happy with the decision.”
Eichel is one of the six players already named to Team USA for the 2026 Milan-Cortina Olympics.
The Golden Knights are expected to be Stanley Cup contenders, especially after adding winger Mitch Marner this summer. Eichel and Marner are expected to play together on Vegas’ top line in its opener against the Kings.
The agreement takes another big name off the list of what could have been a star-studded free agent class next summer. Connor McDavid re-signed for a two-year deal with the Edmonton Oilers earlier in the week, and Kaprizov inked an eight-year deal with the Minnesota Wild ahead of the season.
Sports
Offseason questions for eliminated teams: What’s next for Yankees after ALDS defeat
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5 hours agoon
October 9, 2025By
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Multiple Contributors
Oct 8, 2025, 10:30 PM ET
The 2025 MLB playoffs are here — and for some teams, October is going to last a lot longer than it is for some others.
We start with the wild-card round, where the Cincinnati Reds became the first team eliminated from postseason contention — on the very first day of October, no less — with a two-game series loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers. The next day, the Cleveland Guardians lost their series to the Detroit Tigers, the San Diego Padres fell to the Chicago Cubs and the Boston Red Sox were knocked out by the New York Yankees in a trio of Game 3s.
In the division series, the first team to go: those same Yankees, who were defeated by their American League East rival Toronto Blue Jays in four games.
What’s next for the teams and towns that won’t be celebrating a World Series parade this fall? As each contender is eliminated, ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez and David Schoenfield will list that club’s key free agents and biggest offseason questions and make their predictions for the long, cold winter ahead.
Teams eliminated in division series
Eliminated by: Blue Jays
Key free agents: 1B Paul Goldschmidt, CF Trent Grisham, RHP Luke Weaver, RHP Devin Williams, OF/1B Cody Bellinger ($25 million player option)
Biggest offseason priority: With Bellinger almost certain to opt out after an under-the-radar 29-homer, 5-WAR season, and Grisham coming off a shocking 34-homer season, the Yankees will have not only two big hitters to replace but a hole in center field. Jasson Dominguez is not the answer there given his poor defensive metrics in left field, so there might be pressure to re-sign either Bellinger or Grisham, with Bellinger the more desirable player given that Grisham had hit under .200 in the three previous seasons. Bellinger’s ability to play first base is a big plus, although Ben Rice will likely take over there on a full-time basis. Outside of Kyle Tucker, the rest of the outfield free agent class is pretty thin, however, so the Yankees will have competition for Bellinger’s services.
The other option is to hand center field to Spencer Jones, the 6-foot-7 slugger who hit 35 home runs between Double-A and Triple-A. Although he also struck out 179 times in 116 games, he leaves a lot of questions as to how the bat will translate to the majors. Despite his size, he’s a good athlete (he also swiped 29 bases) with the instincts to remain in center field.
The Yankees have finished seventh in the AL in runs allowed three seasons in a row. How can they improve that figure in 2026? Well, they played all of 2025 without ace Gerrit Cole after his spring training Tommy John surgery, so getting him back will help. Luis Gil, coming off his Rookie of the Year season, didn’t make his first start until August. Cam Schlittler started the year in Double-A and ended it with a 2.96 ERA in 14 starts in the majors, living off 98 mph heat. Max Fried and Carlos Rodon will be back after winning 37 games, and while Clarke Schmidt had TJ surgery, Will Warren adds even more depth. The Yankees might project as the best rotation in the AL.
The bullpen obviously didn’t have its best season, but the reinforcements Brian Cashman made at the trade deadline — David Bednar, Camilo Doval, Jake Bird — will help the depth in 2026. Still, you could see a move here, maybe re-signing Weaver, who has been a durable, valuable arm the past two years.
Offseason prediction: With most of the roster set, it shapes up as one of the least active Yankees offseasons in years. While last year the prediction was re-signing Juan Soto (a swing and a miss), let’s go with re-signing Bellinger while working Jones into the lineup. With Marcus Stroman and Aaron Hicks (yes, they were still paying him) coming off the books, that’s $28 million in savings. Goldschmidt made $12.5 million in 2025. DJ LeMahieu has just one year left on his bad contract. The pitching is in good shape. Jose Caballero gives them an excellent utility player who can play anywhere. Yes, it was another bitter ending for Yankees fans, and 2009 looks like a very long time ago, but the Yankees will enter 2026 among the clear favorites in the AL, especially if Cole can return to where he was before the injury. — Schoenfield
Teams eliminated in wild-card series
Eliminated by: Dodgers
Key free agents: RHP Nick Martinez, RHP Emilio Pagan
Biggest offseason priority: Flipping their home run differential. The Reds badly need middle-of-the-order power, the kind that will better align their lineup with the long-ball-friendly vagaries of Great American Ballpark. The Reds gave up 25 more homers than they hit in 2025, postseason included, the fifth-worst differential in the majors. That differential was minus-18 at home. The Reds have the pitching they need to win the NL Central, but they need a major uptick in firepower to support the arms. With Martinez’s salary coming off the books, Cincinnati has a wide-open payroll, which — one would think — means lots of flexibility, whether it’s a free agency splurge or a high-impact trade.
Is it time to really unleash this rotation? The Reds have collected quite a collection of high-upside young pitchers. Some of them have established themselves in the majors — Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott. Abbott had a career season in 2025, but Greene still hasn’t paired his dominance with season-long durability. Lodolo produced 28 mostly excellent starts but has plenty of room to grow in his innings count. Then you have Chase Petty, Chase Burns and Rhett Lowder, along with the veteran stability of Brady Singer. The ideal for 2026 would be for manager Terry Francona to push this group of seven for a full season and perhaps lighten up a bit on the innings management side of the equation. This has the potential to be among MLB’s best rotations.
Offseason prediction: The Reds will get aggressive. No, they won’t go wild, of course, but besides having a contention-worthy rotation and a star in Elly De La Cruz who is edging toward his prime, they have a 66-year-old future Hall of Fame manager in Francona who isn’t going to be around forever. — Doolittle
Eliminated by: Tigers
Key free agents: OF Lane Thomas, C Austin Hedges, RHP Jakob Junis
Biggest offseason priority: The term “Guards Ball” caught on during Cleveland’s unlikely second-half run. It was fun to watch and even inspiring. It’s also not generally how championships are won in baseball these days. The Guardians need more firepower on offense, and while there are a lot of promising bats in the system, maybe for once the team will splurge on a middle-of-the-order anchor? Yeah, that’s probably wishful thinking.
What will Cleveland get from its young hitters? It’s not hard to imagine some of the Guardians we saw on the playoff roster getting better — Kyle Manzardo, CJ Kayfus, Johnathan Rodriguez, Jhonkensy Noel. It’s not hard to see Chase DeLauter becoming an AL Rookie of the Year favorite. Given his numbers at Triple-A, it’s a little harder to see Travis Bazzana being part of the Opening Day mix, but it’s not difficult to envision him making a leap during the 2026 season. The crucial question the Guardians have to answer is: What will this group do to lift the offensive profile of a lineup led by Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan? The Guardians won a division title despite scoring more runs than just two other teams. That’s not a sustainable formula.
Offseason prediction: The Guardians, with prospects on the way and the roster full of players under team control, won’t do much in the offseason. They certainly can afford to with so little future guaranteed funds tied up — a big pillow contract to someone like Ohio native Kyle Schwarber would be amazing — but it’s not likely. So, take heart, Cleveland fans, and enjoy the Guardians’ still-spewing fountain of youth. — Doolittle
Eliminated by: Cubs
Key free agents: 1B/2B Luis Arraez, SP Dylan Cease, SP Michael King ($15M mutual option), CL Robert Suarez ($8M player option), 1B Ryan O’Hearn, OF Ramon Laureano ($6.5M club option), INF Jose Iglesias, RP Wandy Peralta ($4.45M player option), C Elias Diaz ($7M mutual option), SP Nestor Cortes
Biggest offseason priority: Cease and King will venture into free agency, and the Padres will have to replace them in the rotation. San Diego will have Joe Musgrove back in 2026, but he’ll be coming off Tommy John surgery. Yu Darvish will still be there, but he’ll be in his age-39 season, having accumulated fewer than 100 innings each of the past two years. The depth beyond them, outside of Nick Pivetta, is suspect. First base will also be a priority unless the team brings Arraez back.
Will they spend again? The Padres lost their local-television contract in 2023, then missed out on the playoffs despite fielding arguably the most talented team in franchise history. Shortly thereafter, Peter Seidler, their beloved, free-spending owner, died. The Padres dropped the payroll by roughly 30% the following year. A 25% increase followed in 2025, putting them at roughly $215 million. Where will they go in 2026? It’s hard to say. But Manny Machado‘s salary will keep increasing — from $13 million in 2025 to $21 million in 2026 and $35 million thereafter. If they want to keep surrounding him with talent as he ages, they’ll have to keep spending.
Offseason prediction: The Padres will pay six players — Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr., Darvish, Musgrove, Machado and Pivetta — a combined $120 million in 2026. The team’s success will come down to the production of those players — along with Jackson Merrill and Mason Miller, who are still not in their prime earning years. But A.J. Preller will look for ways to acquire a front-line starting pitcher and will get creative if he has to. Last offseason, he landed Pivetta on a deal that paid him only $4 million in 2025. This offseason, that front-line starter might have to come via trade. — Gonzalez
Eliminated by: Yankees
Key free agents: 3B Alex Bregman (opt-out), RHP Lucas Giolito ($19 million mutual option), OF Rob Refsnyder, RHP Dustin May, LHP Steven Matz
Biggest offseason priority: Re-signing Bregman if he opts out … and improving the starting pitching depth. Bregman had a solid season, hitting .273/.360/.462 around an injury, but aside from the numbers he also brings fire and leadership to the team. It’s also possible Bregman will opt back in at $40 million per season (for 2026 and 2027), but he had a good enough season that he’ll probably opt out. Yes, Marcelo Mayer is a possible replacement — especially if the Red Sox direct that money instead to the pitching staff.
Giolito had a solid season as a low-volume starter in his return from Tommy John surgery, so there could be mutual interest there on a longer deal. But outside of Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello and perhaps rookie Connelly Early, who looked good in four late-season starts, the projected rotation is unsettled.
Will the Red Sox trade any of their outfielders/young players? It’s still a crowded outfield picture with Roman Anthony, Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu (plus Masataka Yoshida, signed for two more years, as a DH option). It played itself out this season as Abreu and Anthony both missed time with injuries, while Rafaela played some infield. But Rafaela is such a wizard in center field, you’d like to keep him there. Throw in Mayer and Kristian Campbell, and the Red Sox have a deep group of young players who could be used to acquire pitching help. Craig Breslow refrained from trading anyone at the deadline, but let’s see what he does this offseason.
Offseason prediction: I think the Red Sox will play it safe and bring back a similar roster, starting with re-signing Bregman. They could then slide Mayer to second base. That still would leave four outfielders plus Campbell, who started the season with a lot of helium after making the Opening Day roster, but his defense at second wasn’t good, and he didn’t rip up Triple-A after getting sent down. If anyone is the odd man out, it’s probably him, so he’s the one most likely to get traded. Bringing back Giolito — assuming he’s healthy after missing the postseason with an elbow injury — also makes sense, as he wouldn’t break the bank but would fill a need. If he’s deemed too risky, a veteran such as Merrill Kelly or, if the Red Sox want to spend bigger, Framber Valdez or Shane Bieber, makes sense. — Schoenfield
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