Big Oil forced to confront some tough choices as ‘monster profits’ fade into memory
Oil pumpjacks operate at Daqing Oilfield at sunset on November 18, 2024 in Daqing, Heilongjiang Province of China.
Vcg | Visual China Group | Getty Images
Energy supermajors are being forced to confront some tough choices in a weaker crude price environment, with generous shareholder payouts expected to come under serious pressure over the coming months.
U.S. and European oil majors, including Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Shell and BP, have moved to cut jobs and reduce costs of late, as they look to tighten their belts amid an industry downturn.
It reflects a stark change in mood from just a few years ago.
In 2022, the West’s five biggest oil companies raked in combined profits of nearly $200 billion when fossil fuel prices soared following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Flush with cash, the likes of Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Shell, BP and TotalEnergies sought to use what U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres described as their “monster profits” to reward shareholders with higher dividends and share buybacks.
Indeed, the amount of cash returns as a percentage of cash flow from operations (CFFO) has climbed to as much as 50% for several energy companies in recent quarters, according to Maurizio Carulli, global energy analyst at Quilter Cheviot.
It’s better to cut buybacks than dividends: For investors, buybacks are gravy, but dividends are the meat.
Clark Williams-Derry
Energy finance analyst at IEEFA
In today’s environment of weaker crude prices, however, Carulli said this policy risks taking on new levels of debt beyond what could be considered a “healthy” balance sheet.
BP and, more recently, TotalEnergies have announced plans to take steps to reduce shareholder returns.
Quilter Cheviot’s Carulli described this as a “sensible change in direction,” noting that other oil majors will likely follow suit.
Thomas Watters, managing director and sector lead for oil and gas at S&P Global Ratings, echoed this sentiment.
Oil refinery at sunrise: an aerial view of industrial power and energy production.
Chunyip Wong | E+ | Getty Images
“Oil companies are under pressure as crude prices soften, with the potential for prices to fall into the $50 range next year as OPEC continues to release surplus capacity and global inventories build,” Watters told CNBC by email.
“Faced with the challenge of sustaining these returns in a lower-price environment, many will look to reduce costs and capital spending where they can,” he added.
Dividend cuts ‘would send shivers through Wall Street’
Clark Williams-Derry, energy finance analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), a non-profit organization, said trimming the share buybacks is likely Big Oil’s easiest option.
“Over the past few years, oil companies have used buybacks to return cash to investors and prop up share prices. And it’s better to cut buybacks than dividends: For investors, buybacks are gravy, but dividends are the meat,” Williams-Derry told CNBC by email.
“A cut in a dividend would send shivers through Wall Street,” Williams-Derry said.
Saudi Arabia’s state oil producer Saudi Aramco did just that earlier in the year, slashing the world’s biggest dividend amid an uncertain outlook for oil prices.
Brent crude futures year-to-date.
IEEFA’s Williams-Derry linked the move to a steady weakening of the Saudi Aramco’s share price through most of this year, noting that other private oil majors will want to avoid the same fate.
Ultimately, Williams-Derry said oil majors likely have three questions to consider now that the Ukraine boom in oil prices has faded.
“Do they keep taking on new debt to fund their shareholder payouts? Do they slash buybacks, eliminating one of the major factors propping up share prices? Or do they cut back on drilling, signaling weaker production in the future?” Williams-Derry said.
“There are risks to each choice, and no matter what they choose they’re bound to make some investors unhappy,” he added.
Big Oil outlook
For some, Big Oil’s current state of play is not nearly as bad as it might have been.
“It perhaps hasn’t been as gloomy as people expected earlier in the year, because you’ve had this narrative, really since the announcement of Trump’s tariffs back in April, that the oil market was meant to go into a glut and a period of oversupply later in the year,” Peter Low, co-head of energy research at Rothschild & Co Redburn, told CNBC by video call.
“What’s actually surprised people is how resilient oil prices have been because they have stayed in that $65 to $70 a barrel range, more or less,” he added.
Oil prices have since slipped below this range.
International benchmark Brent crude futures with December expiry traded 0.4% lower at $64.97 per barrel on Friday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with November expiry dipped 0.3% to trade at $61.24.
“The question, probably less for 3Q and perhaps more for 4Q, is really to what extent distributions and buybacks in particular might need to be to cut to reflect a weaker commodity price environment,” Low said.
“I think given that 3Q was OK, they will probably wait to see what happens in the coming weeks and months and 4Q would be a more natural point for them to revisit shareholder distributions,” he added.
TotalEnergies and Britain’s Shell are both scheduled to report third-quarter earnings on Oct. 30, with Exxon Mobil and Chevron set to follow suit on Oct. 31. BP is poised to report its quarterly results on Nov. 4.
Environment
Elon Musk hypes Tesla’s 8th gen AI chip, but still hasn’t delivered promised self-driving on 3rd gen
Elon Musk is now hyping Tesla’s 8th-gen AI chip, but he still hasn’t delivered the promised self-driving for millions of Tesla owners with the 3rd-gen chip, nor with the current 4th-gen chip in production.
Musk, whose compensation package at Tesla is up for a shareholder’s vote this week, has coincidentally been sharing more of what he does at Tesla lately to justify his upt to $1 trillion compensation package.
This weekend, he posted on X an update about Tesla’s AI chip roadmap:
Just finished a long AI5 design review with the Tesla California and Texas chip engineers. It’s going to be great. And AI6 and AI7 will follow in fast succession. AI8 will be out of this world.
Those chips power Tesla’s inference computing in its vehicles, enabling its advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) and self-driving capabilities.
Currently, Tesla is producing AI4, its fourth-generation chip.
However, the automaker has been selling to customers the capability to achieve “Full Self-Driving” unsupervised capacity since its second-generation chip.
When it failed, it retrofitted second-gen cars with a new “HW3” third-generation chip.
In January, Musk admitted that Tesla’s HW3 in-car computer is not powerful enough to support unsupervised self-driving. He said Tesla would once again offer retrofits, but it’s been 10 months, and Tesla hasn’t communicated any concrete plan to make it right with customers.
During Tesla’s earnings call last month, Tesla partially walked back Musk’s previous admission that HW3 won’t support unsupervised self-driving.
CFO Vaibhav Taneja said:
“We’ve not completely given up on hardware 3.”
He didn’t really elaborate on what it means, but Tesla’s VP of self-driving, Ashok Elluswamy, added:
“Once the v14 release series is fully done, we are planning on working on a v 14 Lite version for hardware 3. Probably expected in Q2 next year.”
V14 is currently available on Tesla vehicles with HW4, but it is still not capable of unsupervised self-driving as Tesla sold and promised to customers.
Electrek’s Take
It’s pretty wild that instead of delivering what it promised and sold to HW3 customers, Tesla now says that you might get a watered-down version of something else that is already available. And that’s going to be 6 months from now.
There’s moving the goal post, and then there’s throwing it away altogether.
Now, the fascinating thing is that Musk is talking about AI5, coming in 2026, then AI6. Now, he is even talking about AI7 and AI8.
We know what happens when Tesla launches a new self-driving computer. It gradually shifts its efforts into bigger models that fit on the new computer, but they don’t on the old one.
At this point, everything points to AI4 going the same way as HW3.
Tesla would have avoided itself a lot of headaches if it would have simply waited to have solved autonomy before selling it to customers.
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Lexus upgraded the RZ in about way you could imagine. It can now drive over 300 miles on a single charge, recharge at Tesla Superchargers, and even has a sporty new F-Sport trim. Is it enough?
New 2026 Lexus RZ prices and range by trim
The new and improved Lexus RZ is now on sale in the US. Lexus revealed the refreshed electric SUV earlier this year, featuring more range, faster charging, additional features, and more trim options.
With a new battery system, the 2026 RZ now provides up to 301 miles of driving range, or 35 miles more than the outgoing model.
The new Lexus RZ can also recharge at Tesla Superchargers via its built-in NACS port. It can now charge from 10% to 80% in about 30 minutes using a DC fast charger.
RZ drivers can use one of the more than 25,000 Tesla Superchargers, as well as other DC fast-charging networks such as IONNA, ChargePoint, and EVgo.
Other new features, such as Plug & Charge and Apple Maps EV Routing via Apple CarPlay, make it much easier to find and use public chargers.
Lexus introduced a new F Sport trim to the 2026 RZ lineup. Packing 402 horsepower from a dual motor powertrain, the 2026 Lexus RZ 550e is the most powerful RZ model yet. It also gains exclusive black F Sport badges on the rear spoiler, front and rear bumpers, and front grille.
The RZ 450e offers an optional performance upgrade that boosts output to 375 hp, good for a 0 to 60 mph sprint in 4.3 seconds. The upgrade costs an extra $1,750 and is available for installation at the dealer.
Lexus revamped the electric SUV’s interior with a new Dynamic Sky Panorama Glass Roof. The F-Sport trim features a Black Ultrasuede trim with blue stitching and added emblems on the pedals and footrests.
Starting at $47,295, the 2026 Lexus RZ is already $5,000 more than the outgoing model. It’s also over $7,300 more expensive than the Tesla Model Y.
| 2026 Lexus RZ trim | Starting Price (MSRP*) |
| RZ 350e | $47,295 |
| RZ 350e Premium | $49,495 |
| RZ 450e AWD | $50,795 |
| RZ 450e Premium AWD | $52,995 |
| RZ 450 e Luxury AWD | $58,295 |
| RZ 55e F Sport AWD | $58,295 |
The 2026 Tesla Model Y Standard RWD is priced from $39,990 with an EPA-estimated driving range of 321 miles. Even the Premium trim, starting at $44,990, is less expensive.
Which electric SUV are you choosing, the new 2026 Lexus RZ or the Tesla Model Y? Let us know in the comments.
Want to test drive the Lexus RZ or Tesla Model Y to see for yourself? You can use our links below to see what’s available in your area.
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Environment
Early Black Friday e-bike sales from Lectric and Heybike with up to $893 savings, EcoFlow 40A level 2 EV charger low, EGO, more
We’re kicking off this week’s Green Deals with an EV-packed edition, led by Lectric’s early Black Friday Sale that is offering up to $893 in FREE bundled gear with e-bikes, like the XPedition 2.0 Cargo e-bikes that are getting some of the biggest packages up to $893 in size, starting from $1,399. That’s not all, as Heybike’s early Black Friday Sale is taking up to $600 off e-bikes with select bundles and FREE gift packs starting from $899 lows. There’s also EcoFlow’s PowerPulse Level 2 40A EV Charger and bundle starting from a $699 low, EGO’s 56V 12-inch cordless snow shovel, and several ongoing exclusive EcoFlow and Jackery power station lows – one of which has even fallen another $100 lower. And don’t forget about the hangover deals from last week that are collected together at the bottom of the page, rounded together in our latest edition of Electrified Weekly.
Head below for other New Green Deals we’ve found today and, of course, Electrek’s best EV buying and leasing deals. Also, check out the new Electrek Tesla Shop for the best deals on Tesla accessories.
Lectric’s early Black Friday Sale offers up to $893 bundles with e-bikes starting from $999
The month is kicking off big for folks looking to score a commuting solution from one of America’s favorite e-bike brands. Lectric eBikes has launched its early Black Friday Sale that is seeing up to $893 in savings across the e-bike lineup, including another $500 price cut on the premium ONE commuter and up to 25% discounts on accessories. Leading the group with some of the biggest bundles are Lectric’s XPedition Cargo e-bikes, which can be broken down into three configurations: the starting 13Ah single-battery e-bike with $346 in gear at $1,399 shipped, the 26Ah dual-battery e-bike with $744 in gear at $1,799 shipped, or the 35Ah dual-battery long-range e-bike with $893 in gear at $1,999 shipped. These bundles would normally run you $1,745, $2,543, and $2,892, respectively, but now, you’re getting the largest packages we’ve tracked since this second-generation hauler hit the market one year ago.
The bundles we’re seeing are mostly focused on passenger comfort and safety, with parents and nannies in NYC often using them to shepherd kids around to their daily appointments. The base 13Ah single-battery model is getting a pair of running boards, cushions, a suspension seat post, and an Elite headlight upgrade. The 26Ah dual-battery model is getting those with an orbiter, extra cushion, and two XL pannier bags, while the 35Ah dual-battery model is adding a fast charger that refills the battery in up to 3.5 hours.
The Lectric XPedition 2.0 e-bikes are popular haulers that have regularly sold out of stock over 2025, as they carry a total 450-pound payload with an extended cargo rack and can carry precious cargo for up to 170 miles. Regardless of your battery configuration, they come with 750W M24 rear hub motors (peaking at 1,310W) that reach up to 20/28 MPH top speeds, depending on your state-specific laws. The 13Ah battery model provides pedal assistance for up to 60 miles, the 26Ah battery model extends that up to 120 miles, and the 35Ah battery model goes the distance for up to 170 miles.
Along with all the free gear you’re getting, these e-bikes also come stocked with dual spring front suspension forks, hydraulic mineral oil disc brakes, headlights and taillights that provide turn signaling and brake activation, a color display, and more.
Lectric early Black Friday XPedition 2.0 e-bike bundles:
- XPedition 2.0 cargo e-bike with $346 bundle, Stratus White: $1,399 (Reg. $1,745)
- XPedition 2.0 cargo e-bike with $346 bundle, Raindrop Blue: $1,399 (Reg. $1,745)
- XPedition 2.0 DB cargo e-bike with $744 bundle, Stratus White: $1,799 (Reg. $2,543)
- XPedition 2.0 DB cargo e-bike with $744 bundle, Raindrop Blue: $1,799 (Reg. $2,543)
- XPedition 2.0 DB cargo e-bike with $893 bundle, Stratus White: $1,999 (Reg. $2,892)
- XPedition 2.0 DB cargo e-bike with $893 bundle, Raindrop Blue: $1,999 (Reg. $2,892)
Lectric early Black Friday ONE e-bike bundle + price cut:
Lectric early Black Friday XPeak 2.0 e-bike bundles:
Lectric early Black Friday XP Trike2 bundles:
- XP Trike2 with $257 bundle, Glacier Blue: $1,499 (Reg. $1,756)
- XP Trike2 with $257 bundle, Tempest Grey: $1,499 (Reg. $1,756)
- XP Trike2 with $257 bundle, Stratus White: $1,499 (Reg. $1,756)
- XP Long-Range Trike2 750 with $558 bundle, Dusk Blue: $1,799 (Reg. $2,357)
- XP Long-Range Trike2 750 with $558 bundle, Glacier Blue: $1,799 (Reg. $2,357)
- XP Long-Range Trike2 750 with $558 bundle, Stratus White: $1,799 (Reg. $2,357)
- XP Long-Range Trike2 750 with $558 bundle, Phoenix Red: $1,799 (Reg. $2,357)
- XP Long-Range Trike2 750 with $558 bundle, Lavender Haze: $1,799 (Reg. $2,357)
Lectric early Black Friday XP4 e-bike bundles:
- XP4 Tempest Grey e-bike with $326 bundle: $999 (Reg. $1,325)
- XP4 Step-Thru Stratus White e-bike with $326 bundle: $999 (Reg. $1,325)
- XP4 750 Pine Green e-bike with $514 bundle: $1,299 (Reg. $1,813)
- XP4 750 Tempest Grey e-bike with $514 bundle: $1,299 (Reg. $1,813)
- XP4 750 Step-Thru Tempest Grey e-bike with $514 bundle: $1,299 (Reg. $1,813)
- XP4 750 Step-Thru Stratus White e-bike with $514 bundle: $1,299 (Reg. $1,813)
- XP4 750 Step-Thru Raindrop Blue e-bike with $514 bundle: $1,299 (Reg. $1,813)
Lectric early Black Friday XP Lite 2.0 LR e-bike bundles:
- XP Lite 2.0 Arctic White e-bike with $449 bundle, 80-mile range: $999 (Reg. $1,448)
- XP Lite 2.0 Sandstorm e-bike with $449 bundle, 80-mile range: $999 (Reg. $1,448)
- XP Lite 2.0 Lectric Blue e-bike with $449 bundle, 80-mile range: $999 (Reg. $1,448)
- XP Lite 2.0 Lavender Haze e-bike with $449 bundle, 80-mile range: $999 (Reg. $1,448)
- XP Lite 2.0 JW Black e-bike with $449 bundle, 80-mile range: $1,099 (Reg. $1,548)
Lectric early Black Friday XPress 750 e-bikes bundle:
You can save up to $2,498 on EcoFlow’s PowerPulse level 2 40A EV charger and bundles starting from a $699 low
EcoFlow is currently offering its PowerPulse Level 2 40A EV Charger at $699 shipped, while bundles are also seeing up to $2,498 discounts. This new charging solution was released back in June with a full $899 price tag, which we’ve been seeing drop down to $699 over the last four months. The deal here is giving you another chance at $200 starting savings on the charging station alone, which can connect to power stations and the brand’s home backup units at the best price we have tracked.
If you want to learn more about this EV charging solution, as well as view the lineup of bundle offers, be sure to check out our original coverage of these deals here.
Get up to $600 early Black Friday savings on Heybike e-bikes with FREE gifts and bundled gear starting from $899 lows
Heybike has launched its Early Black Friday e-bike Sale with up to $600 price cuts, limited FREE gifts, and select bundle packages. Leading the group at its lowest price is Heybike’s Mars 2.0 Folding Fat-Tire e-bike that gets a FREE gift for $899 shipped, or you could upgrade to its 1,000W motor configuration for $100 more. It’s coming down off its $1,499 full price during this event, which we’ve been seeing keep between $999 and $1,099 since July, which is when we last saw it fall to this all-time low rate. Now, you can hop on with $600 savings and get a FREE Black Friday gift pack too – all at the best price we have tracked in its history.
If you want to learn more about this e-bike, or browse the entire lineup of deals, be sure to check out our original coverage of this early Black Friday sale here.
Add EGO’s 56V 12-inch cordless snow shovel to your winter arsenal with a 2.5Ah battery at $270
Amazon is offering the EGO Power+ 56V 12-inch Cordless Snow Shovel with 2.5Ah battery at $269.99 shipped. Since late July it’s been keeping at its $359 full price, which we’ve seen taken as low as $264 back in May and June. You’re looking at a 25% markdown here while this deal remains, giving you $89 cut from the tag and landing it amongst the lowest prices we have tracked – just $6 above its low.
If you want to learn more about this snow-clearing solution, be sure to check out our original coverage of this deal here.
Best Fall EV deals!
- Velotric Nomad 2X e-bike (camo) with DELTA 3 Plus station: $3,048 (Reg. $3,298)
- Velotric Nomad 2X e-bike (sage or fig) with DELTA 3 Plus station: $2,948 (Reg. $3,298)
- Heybike Hero 750W Mid-Drive Carbon-Fiber All-Terrain e-bike (return low): $2,299 (Reg. $3,099)
- Rad Power Radster Road Commuter e-bike: $1,999 (Reg. $2,199)
- Rad Power Radster Trail Off-Road e-bike: $1,999 (Reg. $2,199)
- Lectric XPedition 2.0 35Ah Cargo e-bike w/ $893 bundle: $1,999 (Reg. $2,761)
- Heybike Hero 1,000W Carbon-Fiber All-Terrain e-bike (new low): $1,899 (Reg. $2,599)
- Tenways Wayfarer e-bike with $277 bundle (launch deal): $1,899 (Reg. $2,199)
- Velotric Fold 1 Plus e-bike (gray or white) with DELTA 2 station: $1,898 (Reg. $2,198)
- Velotric Fold 1 Plus e-bike (mango or blue) with DELTA 2 station: $1,828 (Reg. $2,198)
- Aventon Aventure 3 Smart All-Terrain e-bike (first discount): $1,799 (Reg. $1,999)
- Aventon Aventure 3 Smart Step-Through All-Terrain e-bike (first discount): $1,799 (Reg. $1,999)
- Lectric XP Trike2 750 Long-Range eTrike with $558 bundle: $1,799 (Reg. $2,357)
- Rad Power RadExpand 5 Plus Folding e-bike (lowest price): $1,699 (Reg. $1,899)
- Lectric XPedition 2.0 26Ah Cargo e-bike w/ $744 bundle: $1,799 (Reg. $2,543)
- Aventon Level 3 Step-Over Smart Commuter e-bike (first discount): $1,699 (Reg. $1,899)
- Aventon Level 3 Step-Through Smart Commuter e-bike (first discount): $1,699 (Reg. $1,899)
- Lectric XPeak 2.0 Long-Range Off-Road e-bike with $583 bundle: $1,699 (Reg. $2,282)
- Rad Power RadWagon 4 Cargo e-bike with extra battery: $1,599 (Reg. $1,799)
- Aventon Abound Cargo e-bike: $1,599 (Reg. $1,999)
- Ride1Up VORSA Modular Multi-Use e-bike: $1,595 (Reg. $1,695)
- Rad Power RadRunner Cargo Utility e-bike with extra battery: $1,499 (No pirce cut)
- Lectric XPeak 2.0 Standard Off-Road e-bike with $434 bundle: $1,499 (Reg. $1,933)
- Lectric XP Trike2 with $257 bundle: $1,499 (Reg. $1,756)
- Rad Power RadWagon 4 Cargo e-bike: $1,499 (Reg. $1,799)
- Aventon Aventure 2 All-Terrain e-bike: $1,499 (Reg. $1,999)
- Lectric XPedition 2.0 13Ah Cargo e-bike with $346 bundle: $1,399 (Reg. $1,745)
- Aventon Level 2 Commuter e-bike: $1,499 (Reg. $1,899)
- Rad Power RadRover 6 Plus Step-Thru Fat Tire e-bike: $1,399 (Reg. $1,599)
- Heybike ALPHA All-Terrain e-bike: $1,499 (Reg. $1,699)
- Hiboy TITAN Pro Electric Scooter (new model, code HSTP10): $1,350 (Reg. $2,000)
- Lectric XPress 750 Commuter e-bikes with $439 bundle: $1,299 (Reg. $1,703)
- Lectric XP4 750 LR Folding Utility e-bikes with up to $514 bundle: $1,299 (Reg. $1,813)
- Heybike Hauler Dual-Battery Cargo e-bike (new low): $1,299 (Reg. $1,899)
- Heybike Mars 2.0 Folding Fat-Tire e-bike with extra battery: $1,199 (Reg. $1,848)
- Lectric XP Lite 2.0 JW Black LR e-bike with $449 bundle: $1,099 (Reg. $1,548)
- Hiboy TITAN Electric Scooter (new model, code HST9): $1,001 (Reg. $1,700)
- Lectric XP4 Standard Folding Utility e-bikes with $326 bundle: $999 (Reg. $1,325)
- Lectric XP Lite 2.0 Long-Range e-bikes with $449 bundles: $999 (Reg. $1,448)
- Heybike Hauler Single-Battery Cargo e-bike (new low): $899 (Reg. $1,413)
Best new Green Deals landing this week
The savings this week are also continuing to a collection of other markdowns. To the same tune as the offers above, these all help you take a more energy-conscious approach to your routine. Winter means you can lock in even better off-season price cuts on electric tools for the lawn while saving on EVs and tons of other gear.
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