Britain must prepare for at least 2C of warming within just 25 years, the government has been advised by its top climate advisers.
That limit is hotter and sooner than most of the previous official advice, and is worse than the 1.5C level most of the world has been trying to stick to.
What is the 1.5C temperature threshold?
Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries agreed to try to limit warming to “well below” 2C – and ideally 1.5C.
This new warning from the government’s top advisers, the independent Climate Change Committee (CCC), spells out the risk to the UK in the starkest terms yet.
In a letter today, the CCC said ministers should “at a minimum, prepare the country for the weather extremes that will be experienced if global warming levels reach 2C above pre-industrial levels by 2050”.
It is the first time the committee has recommended such a target, in the hopes of kickstarting efforts to make everything from flooded train tracks to sweltering classrooms more resilient in a hotter world – after years of warnings the country is woefully unprepared.
Image: Periods of drought in England are expected to double at 2C of global warming, compared to the recent average period of 1981 to 2010. Pic: PA
How climate change affects the UK
The UK is already struggling to cope with the drought, flooding, and heat brought by the current 1.4C – “let alone” what is to come, the advisers said.
Just this year, the country battled the second-worst harvest on record and hottest summer ever, which saw an extra 300 Londoners die.
“Though the change from 1.5C and 2C may sound small, the difference in impacts would be substantial,” CCC adviser Professor Richard Betts told Sky News.
It would mean twice as many people at risk of flooding in some areas, and in southern England, 10 times as many days with a very high risk of wildfires – an emerging risk for Britain.
The experts said the mass building the government is currently pushing, including new nuclear power stations and homes, should even be adaptable for 4C of warming in the future – a level unlikely, but which cannot be ruled out.
Image: At 2C, peak average rainfall in the UK is expected to increase by up to 10–15% for the wettest days. Pic: Reuters
Is it too late to stop climate change or limit to 1.5C?
The CCC’s Baroness Brown said in a briefing: “We continue to believe 1.5C is achievable as a long-term goal.
“But clearly the risk it will not be achieved is getting higher, and for risk management we do believe we have to plan for 2C.”
World leaders will discuss their plans to adapt to hotter temperatures at the COP30 climate summit in Brazil in November.
Professor Eric Wolff, who advises the Royal Society, said leaders needed to wake up.
“It is now very challenging even to stay below two degrees,” he told Sky News.
“This is a wake-up call both to continue reducing emissions, but at the same time to prepare our infrastructure and economy for the inevitable climate changes that we are already committed to.”
A BBC board member has resigned after criticising “governance issues” at the top of the corporation.
Shumeet Banerji confirmed the news in a letter on Friday, according to BBC News.
It comes after the corporation’s director-general Tim Davie and chief executive of BBC News Deborah Turness resigned earlier this month after a row over the editing of a Panorama documentary on Donald Trump.
This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.
The former leader of Reform UK in Wales has been sentenced to 10 and a half years after he admitted accepting tens of thousands of pounds in cash to make pro-Russian statements to the media and European Parliament.
Nathan Gill had “abused a position of significant authority and trust” and was “motivated by financial and political gain”, said Mrs Justice Cheema-Grubb during remarks at the Old Bailey on Friday.
Image: Nathan Gill is surrounded by media as he arrives at the Old Bailey. Pic: PA
The Old Bailey heard his activities were linked to pro-Russian statements about Ukraine while he was a member of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) and subsequently the Brexit Party.
Following an investigation by counter-terrorism police, officers said they believe Gill likely took a minimum of £40,000 in cash and was offering to introduce other British MEPs so they could be bribed. Officers also said they believed some individuals in this case had a direct link to Vladimir Putin.
Image: Nathan Gill pleaded guilty to eight counts of bribery. Pic: Met Police
Prosecutor Mark Heywood KC previously told the court the bribery offences related to Gill’s association with pro-Russian Oleg Voloshyn, who had been a Ukrainian government official before 2014 and was sanctioned by the UK in 2022.
Gill’s activities emerged in WhatsApp messages after he was stopped at Manchester Airport on 13 September 2021.
He was about to board a flight to Russia to be an observer in elections there.
Bundles of cash recovered
Police said the messages revealed Voloshyn had tasked Gill to make pro-Russian statements on a reward basis. Counter-terrorism officers said the text of some speeches was provided to Gill, which he delivered almost word-for-word.
In other cases, he was paid to offer commentary to news outlets, such as the pro-Russian media organisation 112 Ukraine.
A search of his home in Wales also uncovered thousands in euros and dollars.
Image: Bundles of cash were recovered from Gill’s home. Pic: Met Police
Image: Pic: Met Police
Greed ‘primary motivation’
Commander Dominic Murphy, head of the Metropolitan Police Counter Terrorism Command, described Gill as being motivated by money.
“It appears… greed was his primary motivation. But I think there’s an element of him that had a pro-Russian stance as well, but only he can answer that question, to be honest with you, he never told us that.”
Image: Gill said no comment when interviewed by officers in 2022. Pic: Met Police
‘A grave betrayal of trust’
During sentencing, Mrs Justice Cheema-Grubb described Gill’s offending as “sophisticated” and “a grave betrayal of the trust vested in you by the electorate”.
She told him: “You accepted payments from foreign nationals, made statements on important international matters at their behest, utilised scripted material presented as your own, and orchestrated the involvement of other MPs.
“Your misconduct has ramifications far beyond personal honour, which is now irretrievably damaged. It erodes public confidence in democracy when politicians succumb to financial inducement.”
Image: Gill was paid to offer commentary to pro-Russian media outlet, 112 Ukraine. Pic: Met Police
Other UK politicians at risk
Commander Murphy said that police were continuing to investigate other MEPs, including some from the UK.
“What we do know from the conversations with [Oleg] Voloshyn is that Nathan Gill actually offered his services to contact other MEPs, mostly UK MEPs, to also make statements that might be supportive of a Russian position in Ukraine,” he said.
He added: “I do believe that some of the individuals in this case do have direct connections to Vladimir Putin. And I have no doubt that if we were able to, we could follow this trail and it would lead straight to Moscow.”
Image: Commander Dominic Murphy believes greed was Gill’s primary motivation
Gill led the Welsh wing of UKIP between 2014 and 2016 and was a member of the Senedd between 2016 and 2017.
He was an MEP between 2014 and 2020, but left UKIP in 2019 to join Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party – later Reform UK.
Political fallout after prison term
Police have confirmed Nigel Farage has not been part of this investigation, but political rivals have called on the Reform UK leader to launch a thorough investigation.
Defence minister Al Carns, a former colonel in the Royal Marines, said Gill’s actions were “a disgrace”. He added: “I just think wherever we see Russian influence in UK politics, it’s got to be weeded out.”
Meanwhile, Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey said “a traitor was at the very top of Reform UK”, referring to Gill, but also launched a direct attack on Mr Farage by calling him, and his party, “a danger to national security”.
“Nigel Farage himself was previously paid to be on Putin’s TV channel, Russia Today, and said he was the world leader he admires the most.
“We must all ask – where do his loyalties really lie? We need a full investigation into Russian interference in our politics,” he said.
Reform UK, which previously kicked Gill out of the party, said in a statement: “Mr Gill’s actions were reprehensible, treasonous and unforgivable. We are glad that justice has been served and fully welcome the sentence Nathan Gill has received.”
Liz Saville Roberts, Plaid Cymru’s Westminster leader, welcomed Gill’s jail sentence “for his acts of betrayal in taking bribes from Russia”.
In a statement, she said: “If the former Reform UK leader in Wales was part of a broader, co-ordinated effort to advance Moscow’s agenda within our democratic institutions, then the public deserves to know the full truth, and how far Russian money and influence reached into Nigel Farage’s inner circle.”
Image: A poster put up in motorway service station toilets by the NCA. Pic: PA
According to the NCA, the enterprise is so prolific that it purchased a bank to facilitate payments that supported Russia’s military efforts and helped sidestep sanctions.
Posters have been put up in motorway service stations to target couriers, which warn it is “just a matter of time” before they will be arrested.
The NCA’s deputy director for economic crime, Sal Melki, has warned the threat posed by this money laundering network is significant.
He added: “Cash couriers play an intrinsic role in this global scheme. They are in our communities and making the criminal ecosystem function – because if you cannot profit from your crimes, why bother.
“They are paid very little for the risks they take and face years in prison, while those they work for enjoy huge profits.”
Mr Melki went on to warn that “easy money leads to hard time” – and earning just a few hundred pounds through laundering could lead to years behind bars.
Image: Sal Melki
The NCA says Operation Destabilise has already had an impact in criminal circles, with some members of the network now reluctant to operate in London.
Those involved in the money laundering effort have also started to charge higher fees – reflecting the difficulty of cleaning ill-gotten gains.
Cryptocurrencies are often regarded as a haven for criminals because they are perceived to be anonymous, but it is possible to trace these transactions.
Chainalysis is a company that monitors suspicious activity on blockchains, a type of database that keeps records of who sends and receives digital assets – as well as how much.
Its vice president of communications Madeleine Kennedy told Sky News: “Public blockchains are transparent by design, which makes cryptocurrencies a poor vehicle for money laundering.
“With the right tools, law enforcement can trace illicit funds – whether they’re connected to drug trafficking, sanctions evasion, or cybercrime – and use those insights to disrupt networks and recover assets.”
Last December, a global investigation led by the NCA smashed two networks whose money laundering activities were prevalent in 30 countries.
Bundles of cash were seized during raids, with detectives describing Smart and TGR as the invisible link between “Russian elites, crypto-rich cybercriminals and drug gangs in the UK”.
One of the network’s ringleaders, a Russian national called Ekatarina Zhdanova, is currently in custody in France and awaiting trial for separate financial offences.
Security minister Dan Jarvis added: “This complex operation has exposed the corrupt tactics Russia used to avoid sanctions and fund its illegal war in Ukraine.
“We are working tirelessly to detect, disrupt and prosecute anyone engaging in activity for a hostile foreign state. It will never be tolerated on our streets.”