Seven questions that will decide Mariners-Blue Jays ALCS Game 7
It all comes down to Game 7 in the American League Championship Series — with a trip to the World Series on the line.
The Toronto Blue Jays cruised to victory over the Seattle Mariners in a must-win Game 6 on Sunday night to keep their championship aspirations alive and force Monday’s win-or-go-home ALCS finale, with the winner set to take on the Los Angeles Dodgers in the Fall Classic.
Will Toronto finish off the comeback, or will Seattle punch its ticket to its first World Series appearance? We asked our MLB experts to answer seven questions that will decide Game 7 — plus a bonus one looking forward to how the AL pennant winner could match up against the reigning champions.
1. How much will home-field advantage matter for Toronto in Game 7?
Jorge Castillo: It doesn’t hurt. The crowds at Rogers Centre down the stretch of the regular season and into October have been electric. Players have repeatedly complimented the atmosphere. But the Mariners won Games 1 and 2 in Toronto. Those crowds were raucous and it didn’t matter.
Buster Olney: It could mean nothing; the Mariners know they can win in Toronto, as they did in Games 1 and 2. But I do think that getting a lead will be important, because if Seattle falls behind by two or three runs, the challenge of winning one final game at Rogers Centre will be made more difficult by the bonkers crowd.
2. The Mariners have had vibes on their side all season long. How much will Seattle’s ability to keep finding a way matter in Game 7?
Jeff Passan: Vibes take a team only so far. The Mariners are here because of their starting pitching and ability to hit home runs — and they need George Kirby to avoid another disastrous start and the offense to chill with the strikeouts. In Game 3, Kirby got shelled for eight runs, half of which came on three home runs. He instead needs to channel his last win-or-go-home game, when he throttled Detroit for five innings in the division series.
While Seattle has outhomered the Blue Jays in the ALCS, its 28.1% strikeout rate is not good, and Shane Bieber, on the mound for Toronto, will rely heavily on spin — so that happens to play right into his wheelhouse. Both teams are worn down, and getting an early lead would go a long way toward getting the Mariners’ offense right.
Olney: After Game 6, the Mariners talked about how their energy is good and that coming back is part of their identity. But it’s much more important for Seattle to play a clean game — which Julio Rodriguez mentioned after Sunday’s loss. The Mariners made many mistakes early in Game 6, with defensive errors from Rodriguez and Eugenio Suarez and a baserunning mistake by J.P. Crawford. The Blue Jays consistently put the ball in play and pressure the defense, and Seattle has to respond better to survive.
3. Which team has the Game 7 pitching advantage, and why?
David Schoenfield: Slight edge overall to the Blue Jays, mostly based on how the pitching matchup played out in Game 3, when Bieber pitched well (six innings, four hits, two runs, eight strikeouts, 16 swinging strikes) and Kirby did not (four innings, eight runs, three home runs, nine swinging strikes). The Mariners have the late-game edge with Andres Munoz, who will have two days of rest after not pitching in Game 6; Blue Jays closer Jeff Hoffman threw 35 pitches Sunday.
The Mariners do have some early long relief options available in Bryan Woo and Luis Castillo (who threw just 48 pitches in his Game 4 start), but Castillo has been terrible on the road and Woo is an unknown risk, pitching on two days of rest coming off an injury. Look for Kevin Gausman to be a bullpen option for the Blue Jays. Indeed, the Jays would probably like to use Bieber, Gausman, Louis Varland and Hoffman and go no deeper in their pen than that. If someone else gets in the game, though, the Mariners have a chance.
Castillo: The starting pitching edge goes to Toronto for the reasons David presented, but the unknown variable here is Bryan Woo. The All-Star right-hander was Seattle’s ace during the regular season, but a pectoral injury has limited him to those two innings in Game 5. If he can give the Mariners any real, effective length, I think the overall advantage goes to Seattle with Andrés Muñoz also on three days’ rest. Woo is the best pitcher in this series when healthy. He could be the difference.
4. Which player MUST deliver for Seattle to win?
Schoenfield: Kirby. Through six ALCS games, Bryce Miller is the only Mariners starter who has had a good game — and he was the worst of the group in the regular season. Even with two solid efforts from Miller, the rotation has a 7.33 ERA in this series, allowing a .310 average and .993 OPS. Kirby doesn’t have to go deep — and won’t be expected to — but Seattle needs four or five strong innings from him.
Castillo: Since David went with Kirby, I’ll go with Cal Raleigh. The AL MVP candidate has been Seattle’s best player all year, from the regular season through the playoffs, on both sides of the ball. So it was strange to see him have such a rough Game 6, going 0-for-4 with three strikeouts, a GIDP, and a throwing error that allowed Toronto’s final run to score. It’s hard to imagine the Mariners winning Game 7 without some contributions from Raleigh.
5. Which player MUST deliver for Toronto to move on?
Passan: In the Blue Jays’ six wins this postseason, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is 15-for-26 with five home runs, 10 RBIs and one strikeout in 30 plate appearances. He is a human litmus test and a reminder that as Vlad Jr. goes, so go the Blue Jays. Getting a good start from Bieber would help plenty — Toronto’s bullpen this postseason has been so helter skelter, relying on any reliever for too long is inviting disaster — but amid the endless cycling of pitchers expected in Game 7, the players with the opportunities to do the most will be on the offensive side. And in the ALCS, no one has been better than Guerrero, who has struck out just twice in 47 plate appearances this postseason.
Olney: Bieber, due to all of the uncertainty presented by the Toronto bullpen. It’s unclear how much Hoffman can provide following his Game 6 outing, and while Varland is trusted, he’s also going to be working on back-to-back days. Jays manager John Schneider talked before Game 6 about possibly using Max Scherzer out of the bullpen, or maybe Chris Bassitt, but it’s difficult to know exactly what he’s going to get from either.
The Jays traded for Bieber at the deadline in the hope that he could pitch meaningful games for them, and it’s hard to imagine a situation more important to a franchise playing for the opportunity to go to the World Series for the first time in 32 years.
6. Call your shot: Who is one unexpected player you think could decide Game 7?
Schoenfield: Ernie Clement has become less surprising as the postseason has rolled along, as he’s hitting .447. Remarkably, he and Guerrero have struck out just twice each in 10 postseason games. That sums up Toronto’s advantage at the plate: These guys put the ball in play. Considering Guerrero might not see a pitch any closer than Manitoba in this game, the players coming up behind him might have to do the damage — and Clement is one of those who will get RBI opportunities.
Passan: Crawford bats in the bottom third of the Mariners’ lineup and has only two hits in the ALCS. So why him? Well, he’s due, for one, but beyond that, Crawford puts together excellent plate appearances every time up — his 4.5 pitches per is the second-highest number among regulars — and he has the lowest strikeout rate among any Seattle player this series.
During the regular season, Crawford’s high-leverage numbers were off the charts: .340/.476/.620. He craves moments that matter. And none in the history of the Mariners franchise matters as much as a Game 7 with a chance to go to the World Series.
7. And really call your shot: Which team will be the last one standing in this ALCS?
Castillo: I’ve written this before and I’ll write it again: I picked Seattle to win the World Series before the season began so I’m not going to deviate from that even though the Blue Jays have been the better team since dropping the first two games of this series. Seattle rebounds with a 6-4 win.
Passan: The coin-flip nature of postseason baseball is personified by the record of home teams in winner-takes-all games: 71-67. And considering how back-and-forth this series has been, either team emerging would make plenty of sense. The idea that Kirby and Bieber both shove is very realistic, which would make this a battle of the bullpens. With Andrés Muńoz able to work multiple innings after two days’ rest and Hoffman coming off a 35-pitch outing, though, the edge tilts ever so slightly in Seattle’s favor. The Mariners advance to their first World Series with a 3-2 win.
Bonus: Which team should the Dodgers want to see move on — or is L.A. simply too good for it to matter?
Passan: Simply because Los Angeles would have home-field advantage and less strenuous travel, the answer is Seattle. In terms of talent, as the ALCS has illustrated, the Blue Jays and Mariners are about as evenly matched as it gets. The Blue Jays’ lack of an effective left-handed reliever against a Dodgers lineup with Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy would work decidedly in Los Angeles’ favor.
Similarly, the Mariners have difficulty hitting high-octane fastballs. Their regular-season OPS against 97-mph-plus heaters was .639 (compared to Toronto’s MLB-best .766), and while they have hit four home runs off such pitches in the postseason, they remain susceptible. In the end, whoever advances faces a juggernaut that will be heavily favored and rightfully so.
Olney: In speaking with some evaluators with other teams, there is near unanimity in the opinion that the Blue Jays would present a better challenge to L.A. because of the nature of their offense. They can put the ball in play more consistently and, of course, have Guerrero; with all due respect to all of the future Hall of Famers in the Dodgers’ lineup, Guerrero would be the most dangerous hitter in any series he played in right now.
We’ll see that in Game 7, when it seems very likely the Mariners will pitch around him just about every opportunity they have — an appropriate response when facing a guy who has more homers (six) than strikeouts (two) in the postseason.
Virginia Tech hired James Franklin to be its next head football coach, the school announced Monday.
He will be formally introduced at a news conference Wednesday morning.
“I’m honored and humbled to join the Hokie family,” Franklin said in a statement. “My vision is simple: to restore unmatched excellence, to build something that lasts, and to serve this University, the Commonwealth of Virginia and our amazing fan base with honor, integrity, and passion. I look forward to getting to work with our players, our staff, and the entire Virginia Tech community.”
Franklin was originally owed a $49 million buyout after being fired by Penn State on Oct. 12, but part of his deal with the Hokies, sources confirmed to ESPN, includes a $9 million settlement from the Nittany Lions.
Franklin went 128-60 over 12 seasons at Penn State and three at Vanderbilt. He brings a résumé that includes winning more than 68% of his games, an appearance in the 2024 College Football Playoff semifinals and a Big Ten championship in 2016.
He’ll replace his former defensive coordinator Brent Pry, who was fired in September after an 0-3 start and a 16-24 record with the Hokies through four seasons.
Franklin’s arrival in Blacksburg will give the Hokies their most accomplished coach since Hall of Famer Frank Beamer, who retired in 2015 after 29 seasons at the school. Since that time, Tech has endured the underwhelming tenures of Justin Fuente and Pry as the school struggled to assimilate to modern college football.
After firing Pry, Tech’s board of visitors passed a plan to add $229 million to the athletics budget over the next four years. The move was to help make Tech a more attractive job and attract a candidate who could revive the school’s lagging football fortunes.
“James Franklin embodies the spirit, vision, and relentless pursuit of excellence that will elevate Virginia Tech Football back on the national stage where it belongs,” athletic director Whit Babcock said in a statement. “This is a landmark moment for our program. … James is a dynamic leader, a relentless recruiter, and a coach who has proven he can build and sustain elite, championship-caliber programs. We are thrilled to welcome him and his family to Blacksburg and to entrust him with the future of VT Football.”
In Franklin, the Hokies get an established coach whose availability wasn’t considered a possibility at the start of the 2025 season. Penn State began the season ranked No. 2 in the country and started 3-0 before enduring three straight losses, including a double-overtime loss to No. 6 Oregon when the Nittany Lions were ranked No. 3 in September.
After losses to UCLA and Northwestern, Penn State fired Franklin.
Franklin came to Penn State in 2014 in the throes of NCAA sanctions from the Jerry Sandusky sexual abuse scandal. Franklin led the Nittany Lions to the Rose Bowl and Big Ten title in 2016.
Franklin’s tenure was ultimately defined by general success that never manifested at the very highest levels of winning, as he finished 4-21 at Penn State against AP top-10 opponents. Over his 12 seasons there, he led Penn State to six seasons of double-digit victories, including three straight from 2022 to 2024.
The Centre Daily Times was first to report about Penn State’s settlement with Franklin.
Virginia Tech hasn’t won double-digit games since Fuente’s first season in 2016. From 2004 to 2011, Tech won double-digit games each season under Beamer.
Franklin brings strong ties to the I-95 corridor, including the talent-rich DMV area. Along with recruiting that area heavily at Penn State, Franklin coached two stints at Maryland as an assistant and one year at James Madison.
Ohio State and Indiana both won big to keep their undefeated seasons alive, but the rest of the top 5 made things exciting. Texas A&M, after trailing South Carolina 30-3 at the half, stormed back to win by a point. Alabama lost its first conference game of the season to Oklahoma. And Georgia, after battling Texas for three quarters, scored three touchdowns in the final period to win 35-10.
What does it all mean for the AP Top 25? Let’s break down the rankings.
Stats courtesy of ESPN Research.
All times Eastern.
Previous ranking: 1
2025 record: 10-0
Week 12 result: Defeated UCLA 48-10
Stat to know: This is Ohio State’s fourth 10-0 start under Ryan Day.
What’s next: Saturday vs. Rutgers
Previous ranking: 2
2025 record: 11-0
Week 12 result: Defeated Wisconsin 31-7
Stat to know: This is Indiana’s first-ever 11-game win streak.
What’s next: Nov. 28 at Purdue, 7:30 p.m., NBC
Previous ranking: 3
2025 record: 10-0
Week 12 result: Defeated South Carolina 31-30
Stat to know: Texas A&M’s 27-point comeback against South Carolina is the largest in school history.
What’s next: Saturday vs. Samford, noon, SEC Network+
Previous ranking: 5
2025 record: 9-1
Week 12 result: Defeated Texas 35-10
Stat to know: Georgia has won 12 straight home games against AP top 10 teams.
What’s next: Saturday vs. Charlotte, 12:45 p.m., SEC Network
Previous ranking: 6
2025 record: 10-1
Week 12 result: Defeated Florida 34-24
Stat to know: Ole Miss is 2-0 when trailing entering the fourth quarter this season.
What’s next: Nov. 28 at Mississippi State, noon
Previous ranking: 8
2025 record: 10-1
Week 12 result: Defeated UCF 48-9
Stat to know: All of Texas Tech’s wins this season have been decided by 20 or more points.
What’s next: Nov. 29 at West Virginia
Previous ranking: 7
2025 record: 9-1
Week 12 result: Defeated Minnesota 42-13
Stat to know: Oregon has won 38 straight games against unranked opponents. That’s the second-longest streak in FBS behind Georgia.
What’s next: Saturday vs. USC, 3:30 p.m., CBS
Previous ranking: 11
2025 record: 8-2
Week 12 result: Defeated Alabama 23-21
Stat to know: Oklahoma had 212 yards of total offense, its fewest in a win since 2001.
What’s next: Saturday vs. Missouri, noon, ABC
Previous ranking: 9
2025 record: 8-2
Week 12 result: Defeated Pittsburgh 37-15
Stat to know: This is Notre Dame’s eighth straight win following its 0-2 start.
What’s next: Saturday vs. Syracuse, 3:30 p.m., NBC
Previous ranking: 4
2025 record: 8-2
Week 12 result: Lost to Oklahoma 23-21
Stat to know: The loss to Oklahoma snapped Alabama’s eight-game win streak.
What’s next: Saturday vs. Eastern Illinois, 2 p.m., SEC Network+
Previous ranking: 12
2025 record: 8-1
Week 12 result: Defeated TCU 44-13
Stat to know: BYU scored on each of its first seven drives against TCU.
What’s next: Saturday at Cincinnati, 8:00 p.m., Fox
Previous ranking: 13
2025 record: 8-2
Week 12 result: Idle
What’s next: Saturday vs. Kentucky, 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Previous ranking: 15
2025 record: 8-2
Week 12 result: Defeated Baylor 55-28
Stat to know: Utah has scored 45 points or more in its past three games.
What’s next: Saturday vs. Kansas State, 4:00 p.m., ESPN2
Previous ranking: 16
2025 record: 8-2
Week 12 result: Defeated NC State 41-7
Stat to know: Miami’s 581 yards against NC State were its most in a conference game since 2020.
What’s next: Saturday at Virginia Tech, noon, ESPN
Previous ranking: 14
2025 record: 9-1
Week 12 result: Defeated Boston College 36-34
Stat to know: Georgia Tech would secure a spot in the ACC title game with a win next week against Pitt.
What’s next: Saturday vs. Pittsburgh, 7:00 p.m., ESPN
Previous ranking: 17
2025 record: 8-2
Week 12 result: Defeated Iowa 26-21
Stat to know: USC has lost six straight games against top 10 opponents, a streak going back to 2019.
What’s next: Saturday at Oregon, 3:30 p.m., CBS
Previous ranking: 10
2025 record: 7-3
Week 12 result: Lost to Georgia 35-10
Stat to know: The loss to Georgia was the fifth consecutive loss against an AP top-five team for Texas.
What’s next: Saturday vs. Arkansas, 3:30 p.m., ABC
Previous ranking: 18
2025 record: 8-2
Week 12 result: Defeated Northwestern 24-22
Stat to know: Michigan has won nine consecutive games against Northwestern.
What’s next: Saturday at Maryland, 4:00 p.m., Big Ten Network
Previous ranking: 20
2025 record: 9-2
Week 12 result: Defeated Duke 34-17
Stat to know: Virginia is 9-1 in its past 10 games against Duke.
What’s next: Nov. 29 vs. Virginia Tech
Previous ranking: 21
2025 record: 7-3
Week 12 result: Defeated New Mexico State 42-9
Stat to know: Tennessee has 434 points this season, its second-most through ten games in school history.
What’s next: Saturday at Florida, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Previous ranking: 24
2025 record: 9-1
Week 12 result: Defeated App State 58-10
Stat to know: JMU has won eight straight since losing to Louisville in Week 2.
What’s next: Saturday vs. Washington State, 1:00 p.m., ESPN+
Previous ranking: NR
2025 record: 9-1
Week 12 result: Defeated UAB 53-24
Stat to know: This is the first time North Texas has been ranked in the AP poll.
What’s next: Saturday at Rice, 7:30 p.m., ESPNU
Previous ranking: NR
2025 record: 7-3
Week 12 result: Defeated Mississippi State 49-27
Stat to know: Missouri’s 49 points against Mississippi State was its sixth-best mark against an SEC opponent since joining the conference in 2012.
What’s next: Saturday at Oklahoma, noon, ABC
Previous ranking: NR
2025 record: 8-2
Week 12 result: Defeated Florida Atlantic 35-24
Stat to know: Tulane is now 2-1 all time against FAU.
What’s next: Saturday at Temple, 3:45 p.m., ESPNU
Previous ranking: NR
2025 record: 8-2
Week 12 result: Idle
What’s next: Saturday vs. TCU, 4:00 p.m., Fox
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