Last year, in the inaugural season of the 12-team College Football Playoff, eight of the teams that qualified had two losses.

Five of the seven at-large teams had two losses, and three of the five conference champions had at least two losses. Keep that in mind as more contenders fall each week and the playoff picture changes — this system is more forgiving.

Below you’ll find one team in the spotlight for each of the Power 4 leagues and another identified as an enigma. We’ve also tiered schools into five groups. Teams with Would be in status are featured in this week’s top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee’s ranking would look like if it were released today. Teams listed as On the cusp are the true bubble teams and the first ones outside the bracket. A team with Work to do is passing the eye test (for the most part) and has a chance at winning its conference, which means a guaranteed spot in the playoff. A team that Would be out is playing in the shadows of the playoff — for now. And a team that is Out will have to wait until next year.

The 13-member selection committee doesn’t always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group’s tendencies plus what each team has done to-date.

Reminder: This will change week-to-week as each team builds — or busts — its résumé.

Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket

SEC

Spotlight: Vanderbilt. The Commodores probably have more work to do in the selection committee meeting room than with the AP Poll voters. As good as the win against LSU was, it was Vandy’s first win against a Power 4 opponent with a winning record. Both Virginia Tech and South Carolina are sub-.500 teams right now, and wins against FCS Charleston Southern, a 1-6 Sun Belt team in Georgia State and a three-loss Utah State team aren’t enough to make the CFP. Vandy has enough opportunities, though, to change that, starting Saturday. If Vandy beats Mizzou, its chances of reaching the CFP will climb to 49%. A loss, though, would drop that to 14%. Vanderbilt’s toughest remaining games are against Missouri, at Texas and at Tennessee in the regular-season finale. If the Commodores lose one more game and finish 10-2, they’ve still got a chance, but how that résumé stacks up with other 10-2 teams leaves the door open for debate.

Enigma: Missouri. The Tigers are in a similar spot to Vanderbilt, with a loss to Alabama and even less to compensate for it. Missouri’s best win might have been Saturday’s double overtime win at now four-loss Auburn. It also has an FCS win against 2-4 Central Arkansas, a win against a 2-5 Sun Belt team in Louisiana and a win against a 0-7 MAC team, Massachusetts. Both Kansas and South Carolina are unranked and sub-.500. A win at Vanderbilt on Saturday would give Missouri its first ranked win AND its first win against ANY opponent with a winning record. A loss would put the Tigers in a must-win situation in November, needing to beat Texas A&M and win at Oklahoma on Nov. 22. Missouri has found ways to win against lesser competition, but it needs the second half of the season to show the committee it can do it against more elite teams, too.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M

On the cusp: Vanderbilt

Work to do: LSU, Missouri, Tennessee, Texas

Would be out: Mississippi State

Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Kentucky, South Carolina, Florida

---

Big Ten

Spotlight: USC. Many were quick to dismiss the two-loss Trojans following their road loss to rival Notre Dame, but it was a nonconference game and USC still has a chance to change the Big Ten’s playoff picture. If USC can run the table, that would include a Nov. 22 win at Oregon (another team that could fall under the enigma category, given what has happened to Penn State). That head-to-head result would be critical because in that scenario, both teams would have two losses, and it’s one of the committee’s tiebreakers when teams are comparable. That’s currently the only game left on USC’s schedule that it’s not projected to win, as ESPN Analytics favors the Ducks (72.3%). That’s why USC currently has the fourth-best chance in the Big Ten to reach the playoff (15%) behind Ohio State, Indiana and Oregon.

Enigma: Iowa. The Hawkeyes have quietly won four of their past five games, that lone loss coming Sept. 27 to Indiana — by a whopping five points. Is that really the gap between Iowa and the nation’s No. 2 team? Iowa has a chance to prove it in the second half of the season with back-to-back games against Oregon and at USC. Iowa would have to run the table and finish 10-2 to have a chance — and ESPN Analytics gives the Hawkeyes a less than 1% chance to do that. In addition to the loss to the Hoosiers, Iowa also lost at rival Iowa State, and the selection committee would consider that it was a close loss on the road early in the season to an in-state rival. It’s not a dagger — nor is a close loss to Indiana — but the Hawkeyes still have a lot to prove, and it won’t be easy. Iowa has less than a 50% chance to beat Oregon, USC and Nebraska.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon

On the cusp: None

Work to do: Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, USC

Would be out: Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Washington

Out: Maryland, Michigan State, Penn State, Rutgers, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin

---

ACC

Spotlight: Virginia. Following Miami’s loss to Louisville, the two teams with the highest chance to reach the ACC championship game are now Georgia Tech (62.3%) and Virginia (39.4%). The Cavaliers’ 30-27 overtime win at Louisville looks even better after the Cardinals knocked off Miami. The Sept. 6 loss at NC State will be a sticking point in the committee meeting room if the Cavaliers don’t win the ACC, though, or finish as a two-loss runner-up. Virginia isn’t likely to play a ranked CFP opponent in the second half of the season, but that also means running the table is a realistic scenario. According to ESPN Analytics, the only remaining game Virginia isn’t favored to win is Nov. 15 at Duke.

Enigma: Louisville. Any team that has a chance to win its conference has a chance to make the 12-team CFP, and Louisville has a 19.5% chance to reach the ACC title game and a 16% chance to win out. The Cardinals could be a CFP top 25 team if they continue to play like they did in their win at Miami. Their lone loss was in overtime to Virginia, and they now have a statement win against a CFP contender in Miami. Their problem is the rest of their résumé, but a nonconference win against James Madison is respectable, considering the Dukes are 6-1 in the Sun Belt with an outside chance at the playoff. The win against Pitt is decent, as the Panthers are over .500, but Louisville needs to look the part down the stretch, as only Cal and SMU are over .500 and nobody is ranked. The only game left on the Cardinals’ schedule they’re not favored to win is Nov. 22 at SMU, according to ESPN Analytics.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Miami, Georgia Tech

On the cusp: Virginia

Work to do: Louisville

Would be out: Cal, Duke, NC State, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Wake Forest

Out: Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, Syracuse, Virginia Tech

---

Big 12

Spotlight: Texas Tech. The close loss at Arizona State knocked the Red Raiders out of the top 12 projection and onto the bubble. If Texas Tech wins the Big 12 but finishes outside the selection committee’s top 12, it would still lock up a spot in the playoff as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions. The Red Raiders are still on track to do that and have the best chance (61%) of any team in the Big 12 to reach the conference championship, followed by undefeated BYU (59.1%). Those teams play each other on Nov. 8, and Texas Tech will have home-field advantage. The two can face each other again in the Big 12 title game. Where it gets tricky is if Texas Tech finishes as a two-loss Big 12 runner-up. Some of it would depend on how the Red Raiders lost in the title game and how ASU fares down the stretch. Texas Tech has the seventh-best chance in the country to win out (23.2%), according to ESPN Analytics.

Enigma: Cincinnati. The Bearcats are undefeated in Big 12 play and 6-1 overall, with their lone loss in the season opener to Nebraska. The question is if they can sustain their success against the No. 26 most difficult remaining schedule in the second half of the season. They have the third-best chance to reach the conference championship behind Texas Tech and BYU — two teams that still have to play each other. Cincy doesn’t play the Red Raiders, but it will face BYU on Nov. 22 at home. November road trips to Utah and TCU also won’t be easy, as ESPN Analytics gives Cincinnati a less than 50% chance to win each of those games.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: BYU

On the cusp: Texas Tech

Work to do: Arizona State, Cincinnati, Houston

Would be out: Arizona, Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, TCU, UCF, Utah

Out: Colorado, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, West Virginia

---

Independent

On the cusp: Notre Dame. With the win against USC, the Irish climbed to No. 12 in this week’s CFP projection — quite a turnaround from the 0-2 start. But they would still be out if the playoff were today because the fifth highest-ranked conference champion, which this week is again projected to be South Florida, is outside of the committee’s top 12. That means the No. 12-ranked team gets excluded to include the Bulls. Notre Dame is in must-win mode for the rest of the season but still has the best chance of any team in the country (69.2%) to win out. If undefeated Navy can keep winning, the Irish might have another ranked opponent on their schedule to add to the USC win.

---

Group of 5

Spotlight: South Florida. No Group of 5 team has a better chance to reach the playoff right now than the Bulls (45.9%), according to ESPN Analytics — well above the second-best teams, North Texas (14.7%) and Tulane (14%). The American has separated itself from the other Group of 5 conferences because of the winning records, but also because of the strong nonconference opponents. South Florida’s wins against Boise State and Florida give it a significant boost over other contenders, and the lone loss — while lopsided — was on the road against a Miami team that still looks like a playoff contender. South Florida’s 63-36 drubbing of North Texas on the road was also significant. The American’s best teams, though, still have to play each other, and South Florida will travel to Memphis, Navy and UAB, which just beat Memphis.

Enigma: Tulane. Like South Florida, Tulane also played a respectable nonconference lineup that includes wins against Northwestern and Duke — both Power 4 teams that are above .500. The Green Wave’s only loss was a 45-10 drubbing at Ole Miss, but the Rebels are one of the top playoff contenders. Tulane and South Florida don’t play during the regular season, but they could face each other in the conference championship game. Tulane has the third-best chance to reach it (14%), just a hair behind North Texas (14.7%). The toughest game left on the Green Wave’s schedule is Nov. 7 at Memphis. ESPN Analytics gives Memphis a 66.2% chance to win.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: South Florida

Work to do: Boise State, James Madison, Memphis, Navy, North Texas, Tulane, UNLV

Bracket

Based on our weekly projection, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Alabama (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas A&M

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

No. 12 South Florida (American champ) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 BYU (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 10 Georgia Tech at No. 7 Ole Miss
No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Oregon

Quarterfinal games

At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 South Florida/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 BYU/No. 6 Miami winner vs. No. 3 Alabama
No. 10 Georgia Tech/No. 7 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Oklahoma/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State

BOSTON — On the day of the 2025 NHL trade deadline, one of the most transformative days for the Boston Bruins in recent memory, Charlie McAvoy was stuck on his couch.

The Boston defenseman was still recovering from an injury he sustained at the 4 Nations Face-Off that landed him in the hospital. The Bruins were in Tampa on a two-game trip.

McAvoy and his wife watched the minutes tick down to the 3 p.m. ET deadline and breathed a sigh of relief. Despite rumors his team might tear it all down, the damage wasn’t as bad as they had feared.

“And then things started coming in after the deadline, 3:10, 3:15,” McAvoy recalls. “And it’s just tough. It’s the nature of hockey. It’s the business of the game. But there’s human beings behind it all, great friends, great friends of my wife’s. And it’s sad. It’s never easy seeing your friends move on and go to different places.”

The Bruins were one of the busiest teams on March 7, trading five veteran players. The deepest dagger: saying goodbye to captain Brad Marchand. It wasn’t just that the Bruins parted with a player they drafted in the third round nearly 20 years ago, a feisty winger who helped them win a Stanley Cup in 2011 and a leader who matured under their watch and continued to establish the team culture. The destination was equally stunning: Florida. The Panthers shocked the historically dominant Bruins in 2023 by knocking them out in the first round of the playoffs, then won their first Stanley Cup the following season. They were the team with which Marchand had helped brew a new rivalry. And the team that catapulted above Boston atop the hockey world.

In the seven months since the trade, Marchand helped the Panthers win another Stanley Cup, scoring six goals (and two game winners) in the Final against Edmonton. Marchand continued to taunt opponents, became beloved in the Panthers’ locker room, and seemed to be having more fun than ever embracing Florida’s culture.

“Brad is an honest man, and that’s why he fits in our group,” Florida coach Paul Maurice said in June. “He loves the game, loves the people around him, is very open, very gregarious, so just fits right in. He’s completely accepted.”

Marchand re-signed in Florida this summer on a six-year, $31.5 million deal — which one rival front office executive called “sticker shock for a 37-year-old.” Meanwhile, the Bruins embraced a hard reset, recalibrating short-term expectations while injecting the roster with younger players.

On Tuesday, Marchand will return to TD Garden ice for the first time as an opponent of the Bruins (7:30 ET, ESPN).

“I’m excited for this one. I mean, it’ll be fun to compete against guys I played with for a long time and be on the other side of it,” Marchand said Monday. “I’m sure it will be a pretty intense game. It will be fun to play in front of the Bruins fans again.”

Everyone is bracing for emotion.

“I’m sure that we’ll have a very neat tribute for him and all the blood, sweat, and tears that he gave for the Bruins — one of the best Bruins to ever play,” McAvoy said. “I think he’ll get an amazing ovation from the crowd. And then he’ll probably get booed right after.”

“I’m sure it’s going to be tough for some people,” Marchand said. “They won’t be able to cheer because they don’t like the Panthers very much. Maybe they’ll like me enough to give a little ‘Yay’ or something.”

---

IT WAS ALWAYS Marchand’s intention to be a life-long Bruin. It was the Bruins’ design to contend for a Stanley Cup last season. It all derailed with a disastrous start, which cost coach Jim Montgomery his job 20 games into the season.

“Last year was a seismic shift in terms of how we’ve been,” Bruins GM Don Sweeney told ESPN. “We had to take a cold, hard look in the mirror and understand where we were. We weren’t anywhere close to the level we had been the last six, seven years, and we had to make some really hard decisions professionally, and really hard decisions personally.”

Marchand, who was named Bruins captain in September 2023, was in the final year of an eight-year $49 million contract. While he and the Bruins were engaged in contract talks for several months, the negotiations stalled, even with the pressure point of the trade deadline looming. Marchand wanted security and to be paid his value. The Bruins had other parameters.

“I was never going to take a one or two-year deal. Not even a three-year deal. That just wasn’t in the cards,” Marchand told reporters ahead of this season. “I want to play as long as I can. That’s the main reason why it didn’t work out in Boston. I want to play until I get kicked out of the league.”

Marchand was injured at the time of the deadline; it was looking like a timeframe of four to six weeks. Sweeney said his management group determined that because of the team’s place in the standings, the deadline would mark a “directional shift,” with a focus on adding to the team’s depleted prospect pool. Veterans Charlie Coyle, Brandon Carlo, Trent Frederic and Justin Brazeau were also traded as the Bruins acquired six draft picks (including two first-round picks and two second-round picks), two prospects (notably 21-year-old center Fraser Minten, who is already contributing) and several under-30 roster players, including Casey Mittelstadt, Marat Khusnutdinov and Henri Jokiharju.

The most difficult file was Marchand. According to sources, the Bruins had a deal in place with the Los Angeles Kings but honored Marchand’s desire to stay in the East for family reasons. Florida, unbeknownst to the public, was his top destination. He believed he might have only one more opportunity to win a Stanley Cup, and the Panthers were loading up for their back-to-back bid.

Even after that trade, the Bruins never saw the door as fully closed with Marchand. But they never got the opportunity to formally discuss a contract again, as he re-signed with the Panthers before reaching free agency on July 1.

“We certainly had discussions about it, where he would fit in long term,” Sweeney said. “Upon the opportunity to talk to Brad after the trade, he focused on the fact that he was going to get a long-term deal. That wasn’t going to change between what he accomplished of winning a Stanley Cup and if he were able to get to July 1. We didn’t get the opportunity to cross that bridge [because he re-signed with the Panthers], but we certainly would’ve entertained having Brad back if he had decided that, within the parameters that we could do.”

That closed the chapter on Marchand’s tenure with the Bruins, one that included 976 points over 1,090 games, and endless memories.

“Ultimately what he always wants is to be in the playoffs and to win, and that’s what he was able to accomplish last year,” Sweeney said. “So we’re proud of him for that, but unfortunately it wasn’t with us.”

---

MARCHAND HAS MAINTAINED his deep ties to Boston. He says his favorite part of the city is the fans, unequivocally.

“The city is incredible, but the fans make it awesome. They’re just very unique,” Marchand said. “It’s as simple as, every time I go get a coffee — I have the same routine, same coffee shop every day — there was a message on my cup, if I had a good game or bad game the night before. It would be like, ‘Tough one for you last night.’ All the way down, they bleed black and gold. It’s part of why there’s so much pressure on the team to have success and why they focus on it so much. You can’t slip. You don’t have the ability to slip in this city, or you’re going to hear about it. We wanted to produce and be good for the fans and live up to that reputation, so it makes it special to play here.”

The Panthers arrived in town early on the final leg of a five-game trip. On Sunday night, Marchand went to dinner with a group that included several former teammates: Patrice Bergeron, Zdeno Chara, Tuukka Rask and Adam McQuaid. On who fronted the bill, Marchand quipped: “They bullied me. I did.”

Marchand’s more recent teammates, such as McAvoy, were dialed in to his playoff run with the Panthers. McAvoy is superstitious, so because he didn’t text Marchand early in the playoffs, he held off reaching out until the series was over.

“We were able to connect right away after they won, and I told him it was just really inspiring watching him play,” McAvoy said. “He’s just a big-time player. It’s so fun to see a guy who has been with you, and to see the fire he still has. It allowed me to sort of reset in my head a little bit, and find that fire again.”

The Bruins have a new coach in Marco Sturm and, according to Sweeney, have put a heavy emphasis on being harder to play against. Everyone must earn their ice time. The culture is also continuing to evolve. The team has not yet named a captain, after the role had been filled consecutively by Chara, Bergeron and then Marchand.

McAvoy said he and David Pastrnak are learning how to take on a bigger role, while still staying authentic to themselves and the tradition before them. It’s one of the ways Marchand’s legacy still lives with the team.

“For a long time in Boston, you had Bergy, Z, and Marshy, and they were this perfect triangle of guys that leaned on each other, that each had different personalities,” McAvoy said. “You can talk forever about how amazing they are as individuals, how big their hearts are, how much they care for everyone around them. That’s certainly one of the pillars: caring for your teammate, and going above and beyond for them. Those three guys put that on display every day, making it fun to come to the rink. That was something they fostered there — that made it great to be a Bruin.”

With four ranked-versus-ranked games on the Week 8 docket, we were guaranteed to see some good teams fall this weekend. We got more than we bargained for. No. 2 Miami lost as a 10.5-point home favorite to an unranked team. No. 7 Texas Tech (10.5-point favorite), No. 22 Memphis (21.5-point favorite) and No. 25 Nebraska (5.5-point favorite) all fell to unranked squads as well.

And in the SEC, No. 4 Texas A&M barely survived 2-4 Arkansas, while No. 16 Missouri (against 3-3 Auburn) and No. 21 Texas (against 2-3 Kentucky) needed overtime to secure road wins.

Parity has been the watchword in college football this year — the elite teams don’t seem quite as elite, and the sport’s middle class seems closer to the top of the pack than usual. It rules, frankly. Week 8 certainly reinforced that notion. It was a breathless mess from start to finish.

In times like these, it’s hard to know what teams and players you can trust. I’m here to help. After eight topsy-turvy weeks, we have at least a decent idea of teams’ ceilings and floors, so let’s talk about college football’s most — and least — trustworthy entities.

I went on an Ohio State podcast last week and revealed an ugly truth: Ohio State is annoying the hell out of me this season. Amid all the parity talk, I’m pretty sure Ryan Day’s Buckeyes are comfortably the best team in the country at the moment, but they choose to drop hints only in periodic doses. I prefer my elite teams to win games 63-0 and basically wear a giant “WE’RE ELITE” sign, but after last season’s experience — in which the Buckeyes lost late in the year to Michigan but shifted into fifth gear in four comfortable College Football Playoff wins — no one better understands that the goal is to peak in December, not October.

It would help if they had some elite opponents to look toward, but the Big Ten opponent on their schedule that was supposed to be elite (Penn State) is anything but, and the Buckeyes aren’t scheduled to play Indiana. Instead, they’ve been left to alternate between second-gear blowouts of iffy to bad teams and comfortable 18-point road wins over solid-but-unspectacular opponents such as Illinois and Washington.

Day at least let Julian Sayin throw some pitches Saturday. In front of a less-than-robust Wisconsin crowd (perhaps just hours before the inevitable firing of head coach Luke Fickell), Sayin, who averaged just 26.8 dropbacks per game in his first six starts, went 36-for-42 for 393 yards and four touchdowns. He distributed the ball to 10 receivers, though the dynamite duo of Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate combined for 15 catches and 208 yards.

Wisconsin’s offense was never going to threaten the best defense in the country — the Badgers gained just 144 total yards and took just nine snaps in Ohio State territory (yards gained in those snaps: 6) — so there was no downside to stretching Sayin out a bit. He averaged only 10.9 yards per completion, and Smith is still averaging just 9.4 yards per catch and 6.9 yards per target against power-conference opponents. For that matter, the Buckeyes’ run game is producing almost no explosive plays, but one assumes the passing game will provide more than enough explosiveness if it’s ever asked to, especially as Sayin, the redshirt freshman, grows in confidence.

Of course, we might have to wait a while to confirm that. Ohio State gets a bye week, then four straight games against teams with losing records (Penn State, Purdue, UCLA, Rutgers). Three of those games are at home, and three of those opponents rank worse than 65th in SP+. Anyone craving a glimpse at fifth-gear Ohio State is probably going to have to wait at least another month.

---

In part because of how quickly SP+ was saying Indiana was really good in 2024, I feel like I’ve been in the front car of the Hoosiers bandwagon for a while now. And even I have found myself wondering if or when they might begin to look a bit more mortal, to drop a hint that they might be dealing with extra pressure and expectations. It would be normal and forgivable if it happened, and when Aidan Chiles and Nick Marsh connected to give Michigan State a 10-7 lead early in the second quarter in front of 55,165 in Bloomington, I thought we might be encountering such a moment.

Nope. The Hoosiers ripped off a 75-yard touchdown drive, forced a punt, drove 80 yards for another touchdown and, after a halftime weather delay, drove 75 and 68 yards for two more touchdowns to put away a 38-13 win. Fernando Mendoza was nearly perfect once again, engineering five TD drives in five tries before a turnover on downs ended the streak early in the fourth quarter. He went 24-for-28 for 332 yards and four touchdowns, and stars Omar Cooper Jr. and Elijah Sarratt caught 12 passes for 185 yards and three of the scores. The Indiana defense had a poor game by its standards, allowing six Michigan State drives to finish in IU territory, but the Hoosiers still haven’t allowed more than 20 points in a game this season.

Even if your brain has been slow to completely grasp this — mine evidently has, despite my best efforts — there’s absolutely no reason to think of Indiana as anything but an elite team that will play like an elite team most of the time. And if that remains true, then go ahead and pencil the Hoosiers into the Big Ten championship game: Their five remaining games are against three teams ranked 65th or worse in SP+ and two (Maryland and Penn State) who are a combined 0-7 since Week 4.

We entered Week 8 with five teams looking at odds of 25% or higher to finish 12-0: Ohio State, Texas Tech, Indiana, Memphis and Miami. Three of them lost; the other two — Ohio State (now 49%) and Indiana (45%) — are on a collision course to meet in Indianapolis.

---

Don’t trust: The ACC

All of it. The entire conference is untrustworthy at this point. There were eight games involving ACC teams in Week 8; four produced upsets, three on the favorite’s home field, and two others nearly did. Stanford beat Florida State as a 17.5-point underdog, Louisville (+10.5) won at Miami, SMU (+5.5) won at Clemson in a game altered by multiple quarterback injuries and Georgia Tech (+3.5) won at Duke 27-18 in a game impacted heavily by a 95-yard Omar Daniels fumble return score.

Oh yeah, and Cal nearly lost as an 8.5-point home favorite against previously hapless North Carolina, and Virginia (-16.5) needed a late Washington State implosion to beat the Cougars 22-20 at home. In all, only Pitt’s 30-13 win over Syracuse — the Panthers have genuinely gone to a new level since installing freshman Mason Heintschel at quarterback (though he admittedly didn’t do much Saturday) — and collapsing Boston College’s 38-23 loss to UConn produced what you might call expected outcomes, though UConn’s winning margin was larger than anticipated.

As one would expect, such a wacky week shuffled the conference title odds a good amount.

ACC title odds, per SP+:
Georgia Tech (7-0, 4-0 ACC): 26.9% (up 9.2%)
Louisville (5-1, 2-1): 16.8% (up 6.5%)
Miami (5-1, 1-1): 13.4% (down 17.3%)
Virginia (6-1, 3-0): 12.9% (up 1.9%)
SMU (5-2, 3-0): 12.9% (up 5.8%)
Pitt (5-2, 3-1): 8.3% (up 2.5%)
Duke (4-3, 3-1): 7.3% (down 7.7%)
Cal (5-2, 2-1): 1.0% (up 0.4%)

SP+ pinpointed Miami as more of a top-15 team than an elite one weeks ago, and as such, the Hurricanes could struggle in road trips against SMU (which has won three in a row) and the aforementioned Pitt in a series that has produced upsets in five of the past nine meetings. Louisville’s offense isn’t quite trustworthy yet, but the Cardinals have only one more SP+ top-40 opponent on the schedule (No. 37 SMU).

Virginia and SMU still have mulligans to spend — both are unbeaten in conference play — as does Georgia Tech, which remains unbeaten overall and has moved into the ACC driver’s seat. But as fun as the Tech story is, it’s hard to trust the Yellow Jackets, who, despite having not yet faced an SP+ top-40 team, have needed three one-score victories to remain unbeaten and rank only 29th in points per drive on offense and 53rd on defense. They’re 28th in SP+, behind Miami and Louisville and only narrowly ahead of Pitt, SMU and a quickly deteriorating Florida State.

Translation: This race probably has a few more plot twists to go. The spirit of the ACC Coastal division lives. Trust no one.

---

For what I believe was the first time since it expanded to 16 teams last year, the SEC had eight conference games going on the same Saturday. Two went to overtime, and others were decided by two, three, seven and eight points.

When we talk about parity in college football, we’re directing a lot of that at the SEC. It currently doesn’t have a team within six points of Ohio State in the SP+ ratings, but its top 10 teams are within five points of each other. All are ranked between fifth and 19th nationally, and even with Alabama bolting out ahead of the pack, we’re still looking at eight teams with at least a 5% chance at the conference title.

SEC title odds, per SP+:
Alabama (6-1, 4-0 SEC): 25.8% (up 7.0%)
Texas A&M (7-0, 4-0): 17.6% (up 3.1%)
Georgia (6-1, 4-1): 13.9% (up 3.4%)
Oklahoma (6-1, 2-1): 10.4% (up 2.7%)
Texas (5-2, 2-1): 7.7% (up 1.2%)
Missouri (6-1, 2-1): 7.4% (up 1.5%)
Ole Miss (6-1, 3-1): 7.1% (down 9.1%)
Vanderbilt (6-1, 2-1): 5.5% (up 1.8%)

Alabama indeed eased out in front thanks to Saturday’s 37-20 win over Tennessee. Who knows how the game might have played out if Zabien Brown hadn’t picked off a Joey Aguilar pass at the goal line and taken it 99 yards for a touchdown as the first half expired — instead of a 16-14 or 16-10 halftime lead for Bama, it was 23-7. But the Tide once again got the two things they have come to rely on: red zone stops from the defense and just the right plays from Ty Simpson.

In Bama’s current run of four straight wins over ranked foes, opposing teams have scored touchdowns on just seven of 14 red zone trips, with three turnovers, a turnover on downs and only one field goal among the seven failures. The Tide are just 58th in yards allowed per play and 66th in success rate allowed, but they’re 22nd in scoring defense. That’s a tenuous balance, and we’ll see what happens against Oklahoma or anyone they might face in the SEC championship game or CFP, but it’s working well for now.

It works even better since they know they’ll get what they need from Simpson. That Week 1 defeat at Florida State grows more baffling by the week, but since then Simpson ranks seventh in Total QBR with a 74% completion rate, a 16-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio and a 52% success rate on third and fourth down (national average on those downs: 40%). He’s also the only guy this season who has outdueled Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia. Simpson has earned our trust, although I’m still willing to cast a suspicious glance toward the defense.

---

Trust: Georgia’s toughness

I’m also struggling to trust quite a few aspects of Kirby Smart’s Georgia Bulldogs. They struggled to run efficiently against either of the two good defenses they’ve faced, they continue to lack in the big-play department, and while they’ve played against three top-15 offenses, per SP+, we still expect a Smart defense to rank higher than 49th in points allowed per drive or 48th in success rate allowed.

Still, you have to admire the Dawgs’ flair for the moment. They spotted Tennessee a 14-point lead in the first quarter, Auburn a 10-point lead in the first, Alabama a 14-point lead in the second and Ole Miss a nine-point lead in the third, and yet, the only team they lost to was Bama. (And it looked like they were going to win that one, too, until Bama’s defensive red zone magic struck.) Against Auburn’s awesome defense in Week 7, they eventually figured out a way to eke out 20 points and a road win; against Ole Miss’ awesome offense in Week 8, they allowed five straight touchdowns to start the game but stayed within pecking distance and then suddenly locked the Rebels all the way down. Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss went 1-for-10 passing during a fourth quarter in which Georgia outgained the Rebels 143-13 and outscored them 17-0. The result: yet another comeback win 43-35.

When the Bulldogs need to score 40-plus, they do it. When they need to hold an opponent to 10, they do it. It would be awfully boring if, in this year of epic SEC parity — when Texas A&M, Missouri, Ole Miss and Vanderbilt all have at least a puncher’s chance at the crown — we got another Georgia-Bama conference title game. But it’s pretty damn hard to think we won’t at this point, isn’t it?

---

Don’t trust: Arch Manning and Texas’ offense

I called Ohio State’s defense the best in the country above, and I certainly believe it is. SP+, however, still leans toward Texas, which held the Buckeyes to 14 points in the season opener and has allowed only one opponent to score more than that. The Longhorns rank fourth in points allowed per drive and 10th in yards allowed per play — quite possibly the second-best defense in the sport to my eyes.

Despite the defense, however, and despite a potentially key tiebreaker win over Oklahoma last week, Texas is only fifth on the SEC title odds list above, just ahead of Missouri and behind those Sooners. You already know the reason, of course: an offense that ranks 74th in yards per play, 88th in points per drive, 101st in success rate (80th rushing, 110th passing) and 116th in percentage of plays gaining zero or negative yards. On 46.5% of their pass attempts this season, they’d have been as well or better off just spiking the ball into the ground; that “spike factor” ranks 120th.

I don’t bring this up to heap further scorn on Arch Manning, or at least not to specifically do that. The preseason Heisman favorite hasn’t gotten any of the help he needed this season, and he certainly didn’t in Saturday night’s 16-13 win over Kentucky. His running backs averaged 3.3 yards per carry in Lexington, and his first 25 pass attempts produced just eight completions and three sacks. He did complete four straight short passes late, but Texas gained just 179 yards against a Wildcats defense that allowed 461 yards to Eastern Michigan in mid-September.

The Longhorns survived when Kentucky foolishly called two straight halfback dives into the teeth of Texas’ enormous defensive line and turned the ball over on downs in overtime, setting up Mason Shipley’s game-winning field goal. But this offense is still failing to clear an increasingly low bar. It has underachieved against SP+ projections in five of seven games and needed a special teams touchdown to overachieve its projection against Oklahoma last week.

No matter how good the defense may be, it’s going to face four of the nation’s top 15 offenses (per SP+) in its last five games, and the offense is going to face three defenses that grade out better than Kentucky’s. If it can’t help Manning, and Manning can’t help himself and start to improve — a hard thing to do midstream, especially when your issues seem to be pretty fundamental things such as footwork, pocket timing and accuracy — then how exactly does Texas end up with a playoff résumé? Things could be worse; the Horns could have easily lost to UK. But it’s hard to see things getting much better.

---

I’m not sure my trust is going to be enough. At 5-2 with no serious résumé-building win opportunities left, it sure seems like Notre Dame will be at or near the bottom of a pile of hypothetical two-loss teams even if it gets to 10-2 at the end of the regular season. There’s no shame in losing to Miami and Texas A&M — teams that are a combined 12-1 — by four combined points, as the Irish did, and their list of quality wins just isn’t going to end up being all that impressive even if USC, Saturday night’s victim, keeps playing well.

For this conversation, however, that doesn’t really matter. All that matters is that this is one of the five best teams in the country right now, and I’m growing to trust the Irish considerably. (Well, everything but their place-kicking anyway.) They’ve overachieved against SP+ projections over the last five games by an average of 14.9 points. And even though quarterback CJ Carr had a poor game Saturday — 16-for-26 for 136 yards, a TD, an interception, a sack and a 32.8 Total QBR — they still overachieved against their offensive projections thanks to a 228-yard rushing performance from Jeremiyah Love, his first genuine breakout game of the year, and an 87-yard performance with a kick return score from backup Jadarian Price.

Combine a high-end offense with a defense that seems to have completely solved itself over the last month, and you’ve got a hell of a team. After allowing 32.7 points per game in Chris Ash’s first three games as coordinator, the Irish have since allowed just 12.8 per game despite playing USC (first in offensive SP+), Arkansas (fifth) and Boise State (25th), and despite dealing with injuries to stars such as corner Leonard Moore and tackle Gabriel Rubio. USC had scored at least 31 points in every game before Saturday and came to South Bend averaging 8.3 yards per play; the Trojans managed just 24 points and 5.6 yards per play against the Irish.

Thanks primarily to the early defensive struggles, the Irish were 21st in SP+ after three games. They’re now sixth after seven games. Only one remaining game is projected within 17 points, per SP+, and if they make the CFP they could do some serious damage. We’ll have to see what fate has in store in that regard.

---

This week in SP+

The SP+ rankings have been updated for the week. Let’s take a look at the teams that saw the biggest change in their overall ratings. (Note: We’re looking at ratings, not rankings.)

Moving up

Here are the five teams that saw their ratings rise the most this week:

Temple: up 4.5 adjusted points per game (ranking rose from 88th to 72nd)

Florida International: up 4.3 points (from 130th to 124th)

James Madison: up 3.6 points (from 59th to 47th)

Central Michigan: up 3.5 points (from 125th to 114th)

Oregon State: up 3.5 points (from 114th to 106th)

After losing to Delaware and UConn by a combined 89-26, FIU unleashed a nearly perfect performance out of nowhere Tuesday, heading up to Western Kentucky and winning 25-6. James Madison, meanwhile, knocked Old Dominion out in a delightful Saturday slugfest, scoring 42 straight points to turn a 27-21 deficit into a 63-27 rout.

But we need to talk about Temple for a second: The Owls hadn’t topped three wins since 2019, watching their meticulously rebuilt program crumble to the ground in the 2020s. But then they hired KC Keeler. It might have been the best hire of last offseason. The 66-year-old has them at 4-3 following Saturday’s 49-14 blowout of Charlotte.

Temple hasn’t had the athleticism to keep up with high-level power-conference opponents — Oklahoma and Georgia Tech beat the Owls by a combined 87-27 — but against teams in their weight class, they’re 4-1, having overachieved against SP+ projections by an average of 19.4 points and having lost only to unbeaten Navy in the last minute. What a turnaround.

Here are the five power-conference teams that rose the most:

Minnesota: up 3.1 points (from 57th to 49th)

UCF: up 3.0 points (from 58th to 51st)

Cincinnati: up 1.8 points (from 30th to 25th)

Stanford: up 1.7 points (from 108th to 101st)

North Carolina: up 1.6 points (from 103rd to 98th)

Minnesota sure does love playing Nebraska. The Gophers pummeled the Huskers on Friday night 24-6 to move to 5-2 on the season. Without that ghastly egg-laying loss at Cal in Week 3, they’d be ranked and looking at a potential 9-3 finish or so.

Moving down

Here are the 10 teams whose ratings fell the most:

UTSA: down 5.0 adjusted points per game (ranking fell from 61st to 71st)

Tennessee: down 4.0 points (from 11th to 18th)

Rutgers: down 3.8 points (from 50th to 67th)

Nebraska: down 3.7 points (from 20th to 26th)

West Virginia: down 3.6 points (from 80th to 97th)

Memphis: down 3.5 points (from 24th to 30th)

Northern Illinois: down 3.3 points (from 118th to 127th)

South Carolina: down 3.3 points (from 40th to 52nd)

USC: down 2.9 points (from 14th to 16th)

Clemson: down 2.8 points (from 39th to 46th)

There’s no great shame in losing at Alabama, but Tennessee’s slippage here has been a long time coming: The Vols have now underachieved against projections for five straight games, and they’ve done so by double digits in each of the past two. The defense, which finished sixth in defensive SP+ last season, has underachieved in every game and is down to 44th, and while the offense propped the Vols up for a while, it has also underachieved the past two weeks. Continued underachievement at that level would put them in danger of losing at Kentucky this coming week.

---

Who won the Heisman this week?

I am once again awarding the Heisman every single week of the season and doling out weekly points, F1-style (in this case, 10 points for first place, nine for second, and so on). How will this Heisman race play out, and how different will the result be from the actual Heisman voting?

Here is this week’s Heisman top 10:

1. Gunner Stockton, Georgia (26-for-31 passing for 289 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 59 non-sack rushing yards and a touchdown against Ole Miss).

2. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (24-for-28 passing for 332 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 18 non-sack rushing yards against Michigan State).

3. Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame (24 carries for 228 yards and a touchdown, plus 37 receiving yards against USC).

4. Julian Sayin, Ohio State (36-for-42 passing for 393 yards and 4 touchdowns against Wisconsin).

5. Alonza Barnett III, James Madison (17-for-25 passing for 295 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 165 non-sack rushing yards and 4 TDs against Old Dominion).

6. Taylen Green, Arkansas (19-for-32 passing for 256 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 131 non-sack rushing yards and 2 TDs against Texas A&M).

7. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt (14-for-22 passing for 160 yards and a touchdown, plus 94 non-sack rushing yards and 2 TDs against LSU).

8. Colin Simmons, Texas (4 tackles, 3 sacks and 1 forced fumble against Kentucky).

9. Dylan Riley, Boise State (15 carries for 201 yards and a touchdown against UNLV).

10. Haynes King, Georgia Tech (14-for-21 passing for 205 yards, plus 120 non-sack rushing yards and a touchdown against Duke).

It was tempting to just give each of the top three names a share of No. 1 for the week. Love’s domination of USC was vital to Notre Dame’s playoff hopes (and really fun to watch), and Mendoza was ridiculous yet again — his Total QBR has now topped 90.0 in four of the past five games, and he’s completing 74% of his passes with a 21-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio. Kurtis Rourke was so good for the Hoosiers last season, and Mendoza is raising the bar.

I had to give No. 1 to Stockton, though. He had to be great for the Dawgs to keep up with Ole Miss, and when the Georgia defense finally showed up, Stockton raised his game even further. Awesome stuff.

Honorable mention:

Byrum Brown, USF (14-for-24 passing for 256 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 123 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Florida Atlantic).

Zabien Brown, Alabama (seven tackles and a 99-yard pick-six against Tennessee).

Anthony Hankerson, Oregon State (25 carries for 204 yards and 4 touchdowns against Lafayette).

Caleb Hawkins, North Texas (18 carries for 133 yards, plus 90 receiving yards against UTSA).

Brad Jackson, Texas State (26-for-38 passing for 444 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT, plus 77 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Marshall).

Nick Minicucci, Delaware (32-for-50 passing for 422 yards and a touchdown, plus 20 non-sack rushing yards against Jacksonville State).

Dante Moore, Oregon (15-for-20 passing for 290 yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT, plus 49 non-sack rushing yards against Rutgers).

Kejon Owens, Florida International (22 carries for 195 yards and a touchdown, plus seven receiving yards against Western Kentucky).

(By the way, a quick shoutout to Curry College’s Montie Quinn, who broke the Division III record with 522 rushing yards … on 20 carries! The Colonels beat Nichols 71-27, and his seven touchdowns alone gained 399 yards, including jaunts of 85, 84, 76, 64 and 58 yards.)

Through eight weeks, here are your points leaders:

1. Ty Simpson, Alabama (29 points)
2. Taylen Green, Arkansas (27)
3T. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (19)
3T. Gunner Stockton, Georgia (19)
3T. Demond Williams Jr., Washington (19)
6T. Luke Altmyer, Illinois (16)
6T. Julian Sayin, Ohio State (16)
8. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (15)
9. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt (14)
10. Jayden Maiava, USC (12)

For the first time all season, the points race and the current Heisman betting odds have begun to match up. Six of the above names are also in the top 10 per ESPN BET: Mendoza (No. 1 betting favorite), Simpson (No. 2), Sayin (No. 3), Stockton (No. 5), Pavia (No. 8) and Chambliss (No. 9T).

---

My 10 favorite games of the weekend

1 and 2. Stanford 20, Florida State 13 and California 21, North Carolina 18 (Friday). We had matching last-minute goal-line stands in the Bay Area, though Stanford-FSU gets the edge for adding in a mini-Hail Mary (to get to the Stanford 9 with two seconds left) and an untimed down following a pass interference call (which followed an errant snap). And are we sure Gavin Sawchuk didn’t make it to the end zone? One of the most unique finishes you’ll see.

W under the lights 🌲

Stanford held on for a 20-13 win over FSU, sealing it with a goal-line stop. Cole Tabb and CJ Williams came up big on offense@StanfordFball | @GoStanford | #GoStanford pic.twitter.com/cFJMlnHbnn

— ACC Digital Network (@theACCDN) October 19, 2025

Cal, meanwhile, merely forced a fumble millimeters before the end zone with four minutes left. Boring.

3. FCS: East Texas A&M 52, Incarnate Word 45. With 6:45 left, East Texas A&M took its first lead 45-42 after trailing by as many as 21 earlier in the game.

With 1:55 left, UIW’s Will Faris hit a 57-yard field goal to tie the game at 45-45.

With 0:27 left, ETAMU not only scored the winning points but did so with one of the most physical runs of the week.

EJ OAKMON POWERS HIS WAY!! @LIONS_FB LEADS UIW WITH 27 SECONDS TO PLAY! pic.twitter.com/7Efeaclppo

— Southland Conference (@SouthlandSports) October 19, 2025

Hot damn, EJ Oakmon.

4. Louisville 24, No. 2 Miami 21 (Friday). Louisville’s offense hasn’t carried its weight at times this year, but the Cardinals scripted out two early touchdowns and got a beautiful, 36-yard burst from Chris Bell. The defense took it from there. T.J. Capers‘ interception — the Cardinals’ fourth of Carson Beck — clinched the upset and sent the ACC race into chaos.

5. FCS: Lamar 23, UT Rio Grande Valley 21. UT Rio Grande Valley is 5-2 in its debut season; the Vaqueros have acquitted themselves well, and they almost took down a ranked Lamar team in Beaumont with two fourth-quarter touchdowns. But Ben Woodard nailed a 57-yard field goal with 1:03 left, and Mar Mar Evans picked off a desperate Eddie Lee Marburger pass with 14 seconds left. Lamar survived.

6. No. 9 Georgia 43, No. 5 Ole Miss 35. I almost just assumed that Ole Miss would score late and send this one to overtime. Alas. A heavyweight matchup in a heavyweight environment.

7. Tulane 24, Army 17. I reflexively made the Chris Berman “WHOOOP” sound when this happened.

Look at this catch by @shazzpreston7!!!#RollWave 🌊 pic.twitter.com/Ufc4nUZ7lq

— Tulane Football (@GreenWaveFB) October 18, 2025

8. Arizona State 26, No. 7 Texas Tech 22. Texas Tech backup quarterback Will Hammond finally looked like a backup, but the Red Raiders overcame a number of miscues to take the lead with two minutes left, only for ASU to respond with a 10-play, 75-yard drive capped by Raleek Brown‘s last-minute touchdown.

9. TCU 42, Baylor 36. One of many games with lengthy weather delays, this one almost saw a three-minute, 21-point comeback. TCU led 42-21, but Keaton Thomas returned a fumble for a touchdown, Sawyer Robertson completed a 35-yard touchdown to Kole Wilson, and Baylor recovered an onside kick with 30 seconds left. But Namdi Obiazor picked Robertson off near midfield, and the Horned Frogs survived.

10. UAB 31, No. 22 Memphis 24. You get points for creativity, Memphis. After Greg Desrosiers Jr. had his game-tying, 41-yard touchdown disallowed — replay determined he was down just short of the goal line — Memphis proceeded to commit two false starts and a delay of game, and backup quarterback AJ Hill‘s fourth-down pass to Cortez Braham Jr. was incomplete by inches. I’ve never seen a team lose a game like that.

11. Division II: Benedict 31, Edward Waters 27.

12. UCLA 20, Maryland 17.

13. Houston 31, Arizona 28.

14. FCS: Chattanooga 42, ETSU 38.

15. Marshall 40, Texas State 37 (2OT).

16. No. 16 Missouri 23, Auburn 17 (OT).

17. Iowa 25, Penn State 24.

18. Division III: No. 14 John Carroll 31, No. 11 DePauw 27.

19. NAIA: Faulkner 36, Cumberlands 35.

20. Florida 23, Mississippi State 21

It says a lot about the week that we had two SEC overtime games, and neither made the top 15.