Caerphilly by-election: Will Plaid or Reform have last laugh in Tommy Cooper’s birthplace?

Published

7 hours ago

October 22, 2025

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Caerphilly is famous for three Cs: coal, cheese and its mighty castle. It’s also the birthplace of the legendary comedian Tommy Cooper.

And after Thursday’s Senedd by-election, in what was once a Labour stronghold as impregnable as the castle, it’s Plaid Cymru or Reform UK that will have the last laugh.

It may not be a Westminster by-election, but this clash will have an impact on UK politics way beyond the Welsh valleys if Nigel Farage’s party triumphs.

A Reform UK victory would strengthen claims that Mr Farage and his insurgents are poised to inflict massive damage on Labour and the Conservatives in elections next year and beyond.

Victory in the valleys would intensify fears among the other parties that Reform UK’s boasts about winning the next general election are not the fantasy that its opponents claim.

On a campaign visit to Caerphilly, Mr Farage – inevitably – posed for photographs in front of a 9ft tall bronze statue of Tommy Cooper, who died in 1984.

But the by-election is no laughing matter for Labour, which has seen its support in this by-election crumble like Caerphilly cheese.

Labour has held the Westminster seat of Caerphilly since 1918 and the Senedd seat since devolution in 1999. Ron Davies, said to be the architect of Welsh devolution, was MP from 1983 to 2001.

He was Welsh secretary under Tony Blair from 1997 until he quit over what he called a “moment of madness” in 1998 when he was mugged at knifepoint on London’s Clapham Common.

For the front-runner Reform UK, not even the conviction of its former leader in Wales, Nathan Gill, for taking pro-Russian bribes seems to have halted the march of Mr Farage’s party towards the brink of a stunning victory.

Mr Gill, who led Reform UK in Wales in 2021, admitted taking bribes to make statements in favour of Vladimir Putin’s Russia while he was a member of the European Parliament.

Questioned during a visit to Caerphilly, Mr Farage said: “Any political party can find in their midst all sorts of terrible people. Gill is particularly shocking because I knew him as a devout Christian, very clean-living, honest person. So I’m deeply shocked.”

Despite this bribery scandal, the latest opinion poll in the constituency suggested a narrow Reform UK victory, with Mr Farage’s party on 42%, Plaid Cymru on 38% and Labour languishing on a dismal 12%.

But with Labour, the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Green Party out of contention in a two-horse race, Reform UK’s candidate Llŷr Powell could be vulnerable to tactical voting for Plaid Cymru’s Lindsay Whittle.

Turnout could be crucial. A low turnout is likely to help Plaid Cymru win. A high turnout could mean Reform’s opinion poll leads, both nationally and locally, are reliable and could hand victory to Mr Farage.

But Plaid has come second in every Senedd election in Caerphilly and Mr Whittle can’t be faulted for perseverance and dogged determination. Until now, he’s had a miserable record as a candidate, both for Westminster and the Senedd.

Aged 72, he has stood in Caerphilly in every general election since 1983, no fewer than 10 times, and in every Welsh Assembly election since it was formed in 1999 – seven times.

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Dubbed “Mr Caerphilly” by his party, he was council leader and assembly member for South Wales East between 2011 and 2016.

Interviewed by Sky News back in 2003, the year of Tony Blair’s Iraq war, he said: “People are obviously very unhappy with the health service. They’re unhappy with the way the Labour Party are drifting to the right.

“They’re unhappy with the treatment of the ex-miners and their compensation claims. They’re unhappy with the treatment of the firemen. They’re unhappy that we’ve just gone to war.”

Reform UK’s Mr Powell, on the other hand, is just 30 and is relatively inexperienced as a candidate. He was a Tory candidate in local elections in Cardiff in 2022.

But he was also active in Mr Farage’s UKIP and Brexit Party and worked for the now disgraced Gill as a constituency caseworker while Gill was an MEP. He now says Mr Gill’s actions were “abhorrent” and “a betrayal”.

For Labour, despite its long dominance in Caerphilly, this campaign couldn’t have gone any worse. As well as battling against the unpopularity of both Sir Keir Starmer and the Welsh government, the council’s Labour leader, Sean Morgan, defected to Plaid Cymru during the campaign.

So, like many two-horse races, this political dash to the finishing line could be neck and neck.

Of Caerphilly’s three Cs, coal is long gone. The last mine, Penallta collier, closed in 1991, though there’s a proud history of coal mining.

Back in 1913, tragedy struck when the Universal Colliery in Senghenydd was the site of the UK’s worst mining accident, when 439 miners and a rescuer were killed in an explosion.

But Caerphilly could be about to make history once more, with either a massive stride forward on the road to Downing Street for Mr Farage or Labour surrendering power to the Welsh nationalists in Cardiff after more than a quarter of a century.

And, as Caerphilly’s most famous son would have said, the by-election result on Thursday night will be a pointer to politics in Wales and the whole of the UK… just like that!

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Why are abuse survivors losing faith in the grooming gang inquiry?

Published

1 hour ago

October 22, 2025

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Why are abuse survivors losing faith in the grooming gang inquiry?

The grooming gangs inquiry has been plunged into disarray this week before it has even started, as four survivors have quit the panel and two frontrunners for chairperson have withdrawn.

The inquiry was announced in June, but frustrations have grown over the pace of progress towards launching it, with pressure mounting on the government to appoint a chair and set out its terms of reference.

Survivors Fiona Goddard and Ellie-Ann Reynolds were first to stand down from their roles over concerns about who could head the inquiry and fears it may be “watered down” – something Sir Keir Starmer has denied, insisting that “injustice will have no place to hide”.

Both candidates shortlisted to lead the inquiry have now pulled out.

Here’s what we know about why panel members have quit and what the government has said in response.

Concerns over inquiry chairs

The resignations came after Sky News revealed the two shortlisted chairs for the inquiry were former police chief Jim Gamble and social worker Annie Hudson.

Ms Goddard was the first to resign from the survivors’ liaison panel, expressing deep reservations about the candidates: “One has a background in police and the other, a social worker. The very two services that contributed most to the cover-up of the national mass rape and trafficking of children.

“This is a disturbing conflict of interest, and I fear the lack of trust in services from years of failings and corruption will have a negative impact in survivor engagement with this inquiry.”

The other survivors who resigned also took issue with the shortlisted chairs in their statements.

Ms Hudson withdrew her candidacy on Tuesday, while Mr Gamble pulled out of the running on Wednesday.

In a letter to Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood explaining his decision, Mr Gamble said it was “clear that a lack of confidence due to my previous occupation exists among some” and that he did not want to proceed without a consensus among the victims.

A Home Office spokesperson said: “We are disappointed that candidates to chair that inquiry have withdrawn. This is an extremely sensitive topic, and we have to take the time to appoint the best person suitable for the role.”

Speaking to Sky News after Mr Gamble’s resignation, Ms Reynolds said: “The minute that we found out their former employment, it raised red flags.”

She claimed they represented “the very institutions that have failed us” and that their views would not have been “unbiased” or “impartial”.

During Prime Minister’s Questions on Wednesday, Sir Keir said his government “will find the right person to chair the inquiry”, but did not mention names.

Ms Reynolds and other victims have called for a judge to chair the inquiry, but Sir Keir said he ruled that out because it would require all ongoing criminal proceedings to finish before the inquiry could begin, leading to lengthy delays.

“We’ve waited years for the truth,” Ms Reynolds said. “The timing really doesn’t matter. As long as we know that it’s going to be done properly and impartially… we would be able to wait to ensure that that’s done.”

The full statutory inquiry into how cases of child sexual exploitation have been handled across England and Wales was announced by Sir Keir after an audit by Baroness Louise Casey found children had been failed by the systems in place to protect them.

On Wednesday, Sir Keir said Baroness Casey would be working in support of the inquiry.

Claims about poor treatment of survivors

Ms Reynolds said survivors were “kept in the dark” and “treated with contempt and ignored” when they asked about Home Office meetings and decisions. She said it was made clear that “speaking openly would jeopardise our place on the panel”.

She told Sky News that victims were “gaslit” and “manipulated” during the process and they had “very little faith in authorities and systems”.

Similarly, Ms Goddard claimed a “toxic, fearful environment” had been created for survivors on the panel, with “condescending and controlling language” used towards them.

Safeguarding Minister Jess Phillips has said she “regrets” resignations from the inquiry and that it was “always sad when victims feel that they can’t take part in a process”.

On Wednesday, Sir Keir said: “I respect the views of all the survivors, and there are different views, I accept that.”

He added that the door was open for people to return to the inquiry panel if they wished.

Fears of ‘diluted’ inquiry

The survivors say they fear the inquiry could be diluted, suggesting the Home Office could broaden its scope beyond group-based sexual abuse and push for it to have a regional focus rather than being truly national.

Ms Goddard said the survivors had “repeatedly faced suggestions from officials to expand this inquiry” and that it risked being “watered down”.

Ms Reynolds said the “final turning point” in her decision to quit the panel was the “push to widen the remit of the National Inquiry in ways that downplay the racial and religious motivations behind our abuse”.

Ms Phillips said allegations that the inquiry is being diluted or intentionally delayed were “false” and that it would “remain laser-focused on grooming gangs”.

Ms Goddard claimed this amounted to the minister calling her “a liar” and said she should apologise and resign.

Ms Reynolds also said she believed Ms Phillips was “unfit for the role”.

During PMQs on Wednesday, Sir Keir defended the safeguarding minister, saying she and Baroness Casey were the “right people” to take the inquiry forward.

He insisted the inquiry “is not and will never be watered down” and that “its scope will not change”.

“It will examine the ethnicity and religion of the offenders, and we will find the right person to chair the inquiry,” he said.

‘They should start again’

The father of a grooming gang victim says the government “should start again” with the national inquiry.

Marlon West, whose daughter Scarlett was a victim of sexual exploitation in Manchester, told Sky News that public “faith” has been “lost”.

He described Ms Phillips in parliament this week as “unprofessional” and “defensive rather than listening to what survivors are saying.”

“I doubt she will resign but she has lost any kind of faith from the public, and more importantly with survivors and families.

He wants to see an inquiry with family members included alongside survivors on the panel.

“Not that I want to go on it, if I’m honest,” he said, “but it’s the families who are dealing with the services, not so much the survivors.

“It’s really important that they get family perspective. I think they should start again.”

Government denies ‘watered down’ approach

Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood responded to the resignations saying the scope of the inquiry “will not change” and that it will leave “no hiding place” for those involved in the scandal.

In an article for The Times, she vowed the probe “will never be watered down on my watch” – and said it will focus on how “some of the most vulnerable people in this country” were abused “at the hands of predatory monsters”.

The home secretary also insisted the inquiry will be “robust and rigorous” – with the power to compel witnesses, and examine the ethnicity and religion of the offenders.

Speaking to Times Radio on Wednesday, Ms Goddard said the Home Secretary’s statement was “reassuring” but reiterated that Ms Phillips should resign.