General view of Orsknefteorgsintez oil refinery in the city of Orsk, Orenburg region, Russia Aug. 28, 2025.
Stringer | Reuters
U.S. decision to sanction Russia’s two largest oil companies threatens to disrupt the energy lifeline linking Moscow to its biggest customers in Asia, but without causing an immediate supply shock, industry experts told CNBC.
The U.S. Treasury Department on Wednesday levied sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, citing Moscow’s “lack of serious commitment” to ending the war in Ukraine. The sanctions aim to “degrade” Kremlin’s ability to finance its war, the department said, signaling more measures could follow.
The government has set Nov. 21 as the deadline for winding down operations, which means companies have nearly a month to wrap up or cancel existing deals with Rosneft and Lukoil. That seems to be designed to avoid causing immediate chaos in the oil markets while applying pressure on Russia, said Bob McNally, President of Rapidan Energy Group.
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Rosneft and Lukoil together account for roughly half of Russia’s more than 4 million barrels a day of crude exports, volumes that have found steady homes in Asian markets since the West imposed a $60 price cap in late 2022, data provided by Vanda Insights showed.
China imported about 2 million barrels per day of Russian oil in September, while India took around 1.6 million barrels per day.
“This is potentially a very significant escalation,” said Muyu Xu, senior crude oil analyst at commodities data analytics firm Kpler. “Trump’s sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil [will] have significant implications for Russian seaborne crude exports, potentially prompting major buyers to scale back purchases — if not halt them entirely — in the near term,” she added.
In India, the sanctions are expected to hit several refiners directly tied to Russian supply. India’s state-run refiners — Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum, Hindustan Petroleum as well as private giants such as Reliance Industries, HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd., and Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC), are among those most exposed, Kpler data showed.
Rosneft also owns nearly 50% of Nayara Energy Ltd., operator of the Vadinar refinery in Gujarat, and it may struggle with selling refined products, rather than obtaining crude.
Indian state-run refiners are currently scrutinizing their Russian oil trade paperwork to confirm that none of their supplies originate directly from Rosneft or Lukoil, Reuters reported on Thursday, following the announcement of the sanctions, citing a source with direct knowledge of the situation.
“India will likely need to walk away from its seaborne term agreements, while China’s pipeline flows may continue,” said Vortexa’s oil market analyst Emma Li.
Refiners in China will also have to exercise caution, energy experts said. All the state-owned enterprises will be careful about cargoes linked to Rosneft and Lukoil, Xu said.
China National Petroleum Corporation has agreements with Rosneft for pipeline supply, but no long-term contracts for seaborne crude, according to Vortexa.
“I don’t expect a complete shutdown of Russian crude flows, but a short-term and immediate hiatus seems inevitable,” said Xu.
Sanctions mean buyers will need to find new ways to move and pay for those shipments, which brings about extra costs and complications, and that’s exactly what the U.S. wants: to cut Moscow’s profits without completely stopping its exports, said McNally.
Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum, Hindustan Petroleum, ONGC, Reliance Industries and China National Petroleum Corporation did not immediately respond to a CNBC’s requests for comment.
This is as high-profile as it gets and Washington cannot risk looking like a paper tiger.
Vandana Hari
Vanda Insights
China and India will have little choice but to turn mostly to U.S. and OPEC supplies, noted energy experts. “There is spare capacity within OPEC right now, especially Saudi Arabia. But the increased demand for the global non-sanctioned supply will raise prices,” John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital.
Oil prices jumped around 5% before paring gains slightly after Trump’s announcement. Global benchmark Brent was trading 3.71% higher at $64.91 per barrel at 2.00 a.m. ET, Thursday, while U.S. crude had climbed 3.93% to $60.8.
Founder of Vanda Insights, Vandana Hari, also said that the alternative for China and India was more Middle Eastern crude.
The new measures differ sharply from the G7’s earlier price-cap mechanism, which allowed Russian crude to flow as long as it was sold below $60 a barrel. “This appears to imply that you cannot buy Russian crude oil regardless of the price,” Kilduff said. “It’s a blanket ban.”
“This is as high-profile as it gets and Washington cannot risk looking like a paper tiger,” said Hari. “But a far bigger question is whether the sanctions will sustain … One Trump-Putin phone call could turn the situation by 180 degrees again.”
Hyundai’s midsize SUV is already due for a facelift, including a new design and electrified powertrain. It’s not a pure EV, but the new Hyundai Santa Fe will offer electric-only driving.
Is Hyundai launching the Santa Fe EV?
The Santa Fe is slightly bigger than the Tesla Model Y and one of Hyundai’s most popular vehicles, so an EV version would make sense, right?
Hyundai introduced hybrid and plug-in hybrid powertrains for the 2021 model year. The fifth-generation, launched last year, brought a bold new look, added power, and a new hybrid option.
Now, it’s official, the next Santa Fe will be radically different from the current model. A camouflaged prototype was spotted in South Korea with a few design updates, but that’s not all.
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Although it’s still under wraps, a sticker on the side of the vehicle confirms that this Santa Fe is actually an extended-range electric vehicle (EREV). Hyundai announced plans to launch its first EREV in 2027 during last month’s CEO Investor Day.
2026 Hyundai Santa Fe Hybrid (Source: Hyundai)
According to Hyundai, the new electrified vehicle will offer an “EV-like” driving experience, delivering over 600 miles (960 km) of combined range.
The vehicle is still equipped with a battery for pure EV driving, but it also has a gas engine that acts as a generator to extend the driving range when the battery gets low. Hyundai will use in-house batteries, which it claims will offer “full EV power performance with less than half the battery capacity.”
The video from HealerTV takes a closer look at the vehicle to show where the battery and high-voltage lines are located.
Although it’s covered, you can see a few design updates, including new head and rear lights that appear closer to the Palisade.
While Hyundai is preparing to launch the Santa Fe EREV, Genesis is also planning to introduce its first extended-range EV. We caught a sneak peek of the Genesis GV70 EREV earlier this month, which is also expected to arrive in 2027. It will follow the luxury brands’ first hybrid, the GV80, due out next year.
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In the last week, two former Tesla self-driving/Autopilot program leaders have commented on the state of autonomous driving, telling a very different story than their former boss, Elon Musk.
Elon Musk has been notoriously wrong about predicting when Tesla would solve self-driving.
The CEO first announced that “all Tesla vehicles produced since 2016 have all the hardware necessary to achieve full self-driving,” and then claimed, every year from 2019 to 2025, that Tesla would deliver the capability through software updates by the end of each year.
He reiterated the prediction recently, saying Tesla would remove the safety monitor from its robotaxi service in Austin and enable “unsupervised self-driving” in consumer vehicles by the end of 2025.
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There’s been a running gag at Tesla about engineers finding out that the company is supposed to deliver something as Musk announces it publicly – leading to a large discrepancy between what Tesla is working on and what Musk claims it will deliver.
Self-driving has been a good example.
While Musk has repeatedly claimed for the last 6 years that Tesla is on the verge of solving autonomy, the people actually working on the technology are not really in agreement. Some of them who left are starting to speak out.
In a new podcast this week, the AI expect again warned that autonomy is not solved:
He said that he would “push pack” on the idea that what we are seeing in the world of autonomy today, with Tesla and Waymo, means it is a solved problem.
Karpathy said:
“[…] I think basically what takes the long amount of time and the way to think about it is that it’s a march of nines and every single nine is a constant amount of work, so every single nine is the same amount of work, so when you get a demo and something works 90% of the time, that’s just the first nine, and then you need the second nine, and third nine, fourth nine, fifth nine, and while I was at Tesla for five years or so, i think we went through maybe three nines or two nines. I don’t know, but like multiple nines of iteration, there’s still more nines to go, and so that’s why these things take so long […]”
Some data support what the engineer is claiming, as the latest FSD Beta software updates that the Tesla team delivered under his leadership did result in a significant reduction in driver intervention, but the progress has been much less evident since:
The first few ‘9s’ deliver a much greater impact, statistically, than the next ones, even though, as Karpathy pointed out, the next ones are just as important and they are just as tricky as the previous 9s.
While he highlights that there’s still a lot of work to be done, Karpathy did say that he belives Tesla’s approach to be more scalable.
He is not the only former Tesla Autopilot program leader to speak out recently.
Sterling Anderson is recognized as the first Autopilot program leader at Tesla in 2015-2016. He now leads global products at GM, which announced this week that it plans to launch level 3 autonomous driving in 2028.
During the event announcing the new autonomous driving timeline at GM, Anderson took a jab at his former employer:
Our customers have driven over 700 million hands-free miles with Super Cruise without a single accident attributed to the technology. I led Autopilot, and you can’t say that for Autopilot. I think this is the long-term play: we build trust with customers by delivering safe products.
The GM executive favor the more careful approach to autnomous driving.
Electrek’s Take
As I often point out, there’s what Elon says, and there’s what Tesla’s lawyers say.
Elon’s own lawyers say Tesla shareholders shouldn’t listen to him, calling his statements “mere corporate puffery.” That’s an actual quote.
I do believe that Tesla will achieve unsupervised self-driving in consumer vehicles at someone point, but I don’t have any evidence that it is close to happen.
As Karpathy said, there are still several 9s to go through before it can be at 99.9999999%, which is needed for level4-5 autonomy, and each of those 9s represent years of work.
I think there’s a clear discrepenacy between how Elon talks about self-driving at Tesla and what people who are actually building those systems, like Anderson and Karpathy from 2015 to 2022, are experiencing.
Elon has been lucky to find Ashok, Tesla’s current self-driving leader, who seems to be perfectly willing to endorse his consistently wrong FSD predictions.
It’s not really surprising when you know that Ashok is the one who produce the infamous FSD demo of 2016. As Karpathy pointed out, we should be doubtful of AI demos.
Looking the prediction markets, people don’t really believe in what Elon is claiming. On Polymarket, people who have been betting on Tesla’s not delivering unsupervised self-driving this year have made a lot of money:
Elon reitereted the goal this week and the “no” answer still gained ground after his claim that Tesla was on track.
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This week on Electrek’s Wheel-E podcast, we discuss the most popular news stories from the world of electric bikes and other nontraditional electric vehicles. This time, that includes Rivian’s new ALSO e-bike, FLIT sells a pound of caviar with its new lightweight folding e-bike, Florida wants e-bike riders to get a license, and more.
The Wheel-E podcast returns every two weeks on Electrek’s YouTube channel, Facebook, Linkedin, and Twitter.
As a reminder, we’ll have an accompanying post, like this one, on the site with an embedded link to the live stream. Head to the YouTube channel to get your questions and comments in.
After the show ends, the video will be archived on YouTube and the audio on all your favorite podcast apps:
We also have a Patreon if you want to help us to avoid more ads and invest more in our content. We have some awesome gifts for our Patreons and more coming.
Here are a few of the articles that we will discuss during the Wheel-E podcast today:
Here’s the live stream for today’s episode starting at 11:00 a.m. ET (or the video after 12:00 p.m. ET):
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