In a by-election in the birthplace of the comedian Tommy Cooper, it was Plaid Cymru that had the last laugh.
During the campaign, Nigel Farage and Reform UK’s candidate Llyr Powell had posed for photos in front of the statue of the legendary comic in Caerphilly.
Image: Nigel Farage and Reform’s Caerphilly candidate Llyr Powell stand in front of a Tommy Cooper statue. Pic: PA
In fact, the joke among Plaid supporters at the count was that Mr Farage was halfway down the M4 on his way back to London – long before the declaration.
It was one of those by-election counts when one party – in this case Reform UK – is expected to win as the polls close at 10pm, but within a few hours it becomes clear the other party looks like winning.
Image: Caerphilly is the birthplace of the comedian Tommy Cooper. Pic: Fremantle Media/Shutterstock
After all, Reform UK threw everything at the campaign, Mr Farage had visited three times and a poll last week had suggested his party was ahead of Plaid Cymru by 42% to 38%.
Plaid’s by-election winner Lindsay Whittle, a cheerful extrovert dressed in a colourful crimson jacket, admitted in a Sky News interview that he’d fought parliamentary and Senedd elections in Caerphilly unsuccessfully 13 times previously.
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Image: Pic: PA
If at first you don’t succeed…
He was chipper from the moment he arrived at the count even before the polls closed, and was clearly pretty confident he was going to win.
Contrast his body language with the forlorn figure of Mr Powell, who without Mr Farage or Reform UK’s Zia Yusuf – who’d been at the count for an hour or so at the beginning but had left – appeared to arrive on his own and looked neglected by his party as well as dejected.
As runner up, poor Mr Powell had the opportunity to make a speech after the declaration but chose not to, though some of the other losing candidates did.
Image: Reform’s Llyr Powell looked neglected and dejected. Pic: PA
This result is a huge boost for Plaid, however, as the party aims to seize control of the Senedd in elections next year. But it’s a big setback for Mr Farage’s hopes of making inroads in Wales.
But for Labour, whose vote crumbled like Caerphilly cheese, it’s a disaster and will send many Labour MPs into a panic about their chances of holding their seat at the next general election.
In the end, for all the talk of the result being close, it was a relatively comfortable win for Plaid, with a majority of nearly 4,000.
In his Sky News interview, Labour’s Huw Irranca-Davies, a former Westminster MP who’s now deputy first minister in Wales, blamed Reform for cranking up immigration as an issue in the campaign for Labour’s slump in support.
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How tactical voting helped Plaid Cymru
But this result shows that it isn’t only Reform that poses a threat to Labour, but also parties on the left such as the nationalists.
Caerphilly has sent Labour MPs to Westminster for more than a century and Labour Welsh assembly and Senedd members to Cardiff since devolution began in 1999.
This was a Labour stronghold as impregnable as Caerphilly’s mighty castle. Not any more though, it seems.
The result will serve as a warning that Labour’s dominance in the valleys and what might be described as “old industrial Wales” may be coming to an end.
And just like a Tommy Cooper magic trick that goes wrong, that could happen just like that.
“Division and hate are on the rise. Discontent and disillusionment widespread.” What she meant: The Labour government has been a huge disappointment.
“The desire for change is impatient and palpable.” What she meant: You’ve had 16 months to deliver change – voters are saying, “Get on with it”.
“We have to offer hope, to offer the big change the country’s crying out for.” What she meant: Stop tinkering. Get more radical. You’ve got a huge Commons majority, after all.
“We must give a stronger sense of purpose, whose side we’re on and of our Labour values and beliefs.” What she meant: We’re not doing enough for working people or tackling inequality.
“People feel that this government is not being bold enough in delivering the kind of change we promised.” What she meant: Our voters are deserting us because they don’t see change.
“I’ll be a champion for all Labour values and boldness in everything we do.” What she meant: Watch out! I’m going to hound you and hold your feet to the fire!
“We won’t win by trying to out-Reform Reform, but by building a broad progressive consensus.” What she meant: Stop the lurch to the Right on immigration. We’re better than that.
“It starts with wrestling back the political megaphone and setting the agenda more strongly.” What she meant: We need to sharpen up our communication and selling our message.
“We’ve let Farage and his ilk run away with it.” What she meant: The Reform UK leader is running rings round us in communicating and campaigning. We’re too sluggish and flat-footed.
“For too long the country and the economy has worked in the interests of the few and not the many.” What she meant: Winter fuel payment cuts were a disaster and the two-child benefit cap has to go.
“Trickle down economics hasn’t worked.” What she meant: No more tax cuts for the rich. It’s time for a wealth tax, for example, to redistribute wealth.
“Life has just got harder and harder, less and less secure in work, in housing, in making ends meet.” What she meant: We’re failing to tackle the cost of living crisis and housing shortages.
“The deep-seated inequalities that have widened in wealth in regions in class in health need fundamentally redressing.” What she meant: We’re failing to look after our “red wall” voters.
“Re-unite our voter coalition and re-unite the country.” What she meant: Start governing for everyone, urban and rural, rich and poor, North and South. Stop neglecting poorer regions.
“We need to step up.” What she meant: For goodness sake, sort out the chaos in 10 Downing. Stop blaming aides and civil servants and sacking them. Get a grip!
Members and affiliates “don’t feel part of the conversation or party of the movement right now. And we have to change that.” What she meant: Stop ignoring and alienating activists, MPs and unions.
“Unity and loyalty comes from collective purpose, not from command and control.” What she meant: Stop the control freakery in parliament and party management. It’ll backfire.
“Debating, listening and hearing is not dissent. It’s all strength.” What she meant: Listen to your backbenchers and stop suspending them when they vote against policies like welfare cuts.
“As your deputy, my commitment is to change the culture.” What she meant: I’m going to stand up for rebels and critics and force you to ditch the control freakery and bad decisions.
“At the election 16 months ago the British people voted for change. I’m here to do everything I can to make that change a reality.” What she meant: Raise your game, or else!
She said it all with a smile, but there was menace there.
As deputy leader, Lucy Powell was always going to be a critical friend. So there you go, prime minister. Here’s 20 things you need to do for her to be more friend than critic.