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Plaid Cymru have won the by-election in the Senedd seat of Caerphilly for the first time.

The Welsh nationalist party secured 15,960 votes – and candidate Lindsay Whittle cried as the result was announced.

Mr Whittle is 72 years old and had stood as a Plaid candidate 13 times since 1983. He will now hold the seat until the Senedd elections next year.

This by-election was widely regarded as a two-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK, and the result marks a considerable blow for Nigel Farage.

Analysis: Reform candidate looked neglected and dejected


John Craig

Jon Craig

Chief political correspondent

@joncraig

In a by-election in the birthplace of the comedian Tommy Cooper, it was Plaid Cymru that had the last laugh.

During the campaign, Nigel Farage and Reform UK’s candidate Llyr Powell had posed for photos in front of the statue of the legendary comic in Caerphilly.

But when the result was declared at 2.10am at the count in the town’s leisure centre, Mr Farage – who’d been campaigning for Mr Powell on polling day – was nowhere to be seen.

In fact, the joke among Plaid supporters at the count was that long before the declaration Mr Farage was halfway down the M4 on his way back to London.

Read Jon’s full analysis here.

His candidate Llyr Powell received 12,113 votes – denying a victory that would have strengthened claims that Reform can convert a large lead in opinion polls into election wins.

Nonetheless, the party’s performance is a marked improvement on 2021, when it received just 495 votes.

More than anything, the result is a humiliating and historic defeat for Labour, who had held Caerphilly at every Senedd election since it was created in 1999 – as well as the Westminster seat for over a century.

Its candidate Richard Tunnicliffe secured 3,713 votes and finished in third place, with Welsh Labour describing it as a “by-election in the toughest of circumstances, and in the midst of difficult headwinds nationally”.

Turnout overall stood at 50.43% – considerably higher than during the last ballot back in 2021.

Giving his acceptance speech after the result was confirmed, Mr Whittle described how he had been “absolutely heartened” by how many young people were involved in the by-election – and said the result sends a clear message.

He said: “Listen now Cardiff and listen Westminster – this is Caerphilly and Wales telling you we want a better deal for every corner of Wales. The big parties need to sit up and take notice.

“Wales, we are at the dawn of new leadership, we are at the dawn of a new beginning – and I look forward to playing my part for a new Wales, and in particular, for the people of the Caerphilly constituency. I thank you with all my heart.”

Mr Whittle quipped Plaid’s victory “was better than scoring the winning try for Wales in the Rugby World Cup”.

And looking ahead to the next year’s elections, he added: “[This] result shows what’s possible when people come together to back practical solutions and protect what matters most.

“We’ve beaten billionaire-backed Reform and, with the same determination, we can do it again in May 2026. Caerphilly has shown the way – now Wales must follow.”

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Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth has everything to celebrate after winning the Caerphilly by-election.

Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth told Sky News his party’s victory is the “start of a reset of politics in Wales”.

He said Plaid’s goal is to take over the Senedd for the first time in May next year.

“I want to see that through now. I’ve made it clear, said it in my conference speech a couple of weeks ago, we have to replace Labour,” he said.

“And it’s not just for its own sake, it’s so we get better outcomes for Wales. That’s what Plaid Cymru’s always about.”

Labour minister labels result ‘disappointing’

Cabinet Office minister Nick Thomas-Symonds told Sky News that “frustrations” with the “pace of change” led to Labour’s loss.

“I’m not shying away from, how disappointing the result is,” he said.

“What I found on the doorsteps was a real desire for more change, a frustration about the pace of change. That was coming through to me very strongly when I was speaking to people, I think that’s been reflected in the result.”

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Labour ‘not shying away’ from loss

Labour’s deputy first minister in the Senedd, Huw Irranca-Davies, said the prime minister must “get back to bread and butter things” such as the cost of living, instead of focussing on immigration.

“We’ve got to get better,” he said.

“If it turns out as we think, as the polls have shown tonight, after a really good campaign with a really good Labour candidate in Richard, then we’ve got to talk about how do we get back to bread and butter things: cost of living, the state of the local community, the high street, the green spaces, the money in people’s pockets.

“And that’s a task for both Welsh Labour and UK Labour as well.”

First Minister Eluned Morgan congratulated Mr Whittle on his return to the Senedd and said: “We take our share of the responsibility for this result. We are listening, we are learning the lessons, and we will be come back stronger.”

Reform’s chair David Bull suggested the party’s strong performance in the polls cost them the by-election to Plaid Cymru.

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‘Extraordinary’ result for Reform

“I actually think the problem for us was the MRP poll, which was released two or three days ago,” he told Sky News.

“It showed us on 42%, Plaid on 38%, and it changed some people’s minds. I’ve heard tales from Lib Dem supporters, even Tories, actually voting tactically for Plaid to keep us out.”

Nigel Farage added that Reform’s candidate lost to “a party that people know well and to a popular local politician”.

“The Senedd elections next year are a two-horse race between Reform UK and Plaid Cymru,” he said.

The Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats were among the parties that lost their deposits.

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Labour’s Lucy Powell will take a ‘submarine approach’ as deputy PM – for now

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Labour's Lucy Powell will take a 'submarine approach' as deputy PM - for now

Lucy Powell’s had quite the political comeback. Sacked from cabinet by the prime minister but weeks ago, she’s back with her own powerbase and voice at the top of the party as the deputy Labour leader.

She was not Keir Starmer‘s choice and, while the prime minister was quick to embrace her on Saturday as the result was announced, he is probably right to feel some unease about the outcome for a few different reasons.

For in Powell, the party has a new, alternative figurehead that sits outside of the government machine.

Politics live: Follow updates as Labour names new deputy leader

The PM congratulates Lucy Powell after she is announced as new deputy leader. Pic: PA
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The PM congratulates Lucy Powell after she is announced as new deputy leader. Pic: PA

She ran a campaign in which she pledged to be the voice of the membership to the leadership and the membership picked her. She will have serious influence on the National Executive Committee, and sit in the political cabinet.

What she won’t do is return to the cabinet table, which means that she has power and profile, but will remain an independent voice, free from collective cabinet responsibility.

More on Keir Starmer

As I understand it, Powell doesn’t want to destabilise the leadership – for now at least.

She will take a submarine approach when it comes to interventions around government policy rather than offering a running commentary on Starmer’s government and choose her battles.

That way, when she does weigh in, she is harder to ignore.

She could also over time become a lightning rod for discontent should the party’s fortunes remain as parlous as they are now.

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Powell aims to unite Labour Party

On Friday, Labour suffered a cataclysmic defeat in the Caerphilly by-election, coming third in a seat it has held for over a century as Labour endured their biggest ever drop in support in a Welsh by-election.

It’s a terrible omen for next May’s Sennedd election. Labour have been the governing party in Wales since the Senedd’s beginning in 1999. That could be about to change.

When I asked Keir Starmer about the loss on Friday, he didn’t try to deflect, saying: “I’m deeply disappointed by the results.”

When I asked him if it was a gut punch, he said: “I’m not going to suggest otherwise. I spoke to the first minister on Saturday morning, and clearly we need to reflect and regroup, and double down on the delivery, in Wales. And we clearly need to do much more.”

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Phillipson: Powell has my full support

Powell’s position now is that the party needs to pull together, get campaigning and try to build support with their voters.

But she is equally clear that this has to be down to delivery of the “national renewal” Labour promised voters in the election of 2024.

There will surely come a point, further down the road, where this new deputy leader will become more robust in her critique of the government if it fails to deliver and the party suffers.

This race has also exposed the ugliness in a party that is uneasy with its leadership and seems intent on infighting.

The constant briefing wars that emanate from Number 10 cascade down in what has been, at times, a dirty fight.

Lucy Powell accused Bridget Phillipson’s team of “throwing mud” and briefing against her in the Labour deputy leadership race on our Electoral Dysfunction podcast, while Phillipson also said she was at the sharp end of vicious smears.

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Powell hits back at claims she ‘can’t be trusted’

👉 Click here to listen to Electoral Dysfunction on your podcast app 👈

For all the talk on Saturday for coming together and unity, it is hard to see that materialising while doubts persist over Starmer’s leadership and while rivals, such as Powell’s close ally Andy Burnham, are waiting in the wings.

There is also the big question of apathy. Only 16.6% of party members, trade union members and affiliates chose to vote in this election, against 59% in 2020.

This is partly distorted because in the last leadership election, members were voting for both the leader and deputy leaders. But what it also suggests is disengagement from the wider Labour movement.

In 2020, there were 552,000 party members eligible to vote, out of a total membership which stood at 782,000, including union-affiliated members who are perhaps less likely to cast a vote.

This time around there were 970,000 eligible voters – but the Labour Party did not reveal how many actual party members cast a vote.

This might be because membership figures are dropping, and it didn’t want to reveal that information. At the end of last year, party membership stood at 332,000, which is around 200,000 members less than the end of 2019.

For now, Powell insists that she and Starmer will work as a team and the message from both Powell and the PM following her victory is that all of those party must put its shoulder to the wheel to try and see off the threat of Reform.

She is undoubtedly starting out as the party’s campaigner in chief, but I suspect she may become a far more critical – and dangerous – voice, if Starmer looks like he can’t get the party in good enough shape to win the next general election.

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Who is Labour’s new deputy leader Lucy Powell and what does she stand for?

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Who is Labour's new deputy leader Lucy Powell and what does she stand for?

Lucy Powell has been elected as the deputy leader of the Labour Party.

But who is she and what does she stand for?

Powell began her career in politics working for Labour MPs Glenda Jackson and Beverley Hughes.

She then worked for a pro-EU campaign group.

After that, she ran Ed Miliband’s successful Labour leadership campaign and was his deputy chief of staff until she was elected as the MP for Manchester Central in 2012.

She has been at the forefront of Labour politics for over a decade, serving under Ed Miliband, Jeremy Corbyn and Keir Starmer.

After Labour won the last general election, she was appointed as the leader of the House of Commons in Starmer’s cabinet.

But last month she was sacked in the cabinet reshuffle and came to be seen as the anti-Starmer candidate.

During the deputy leadership campaign, Powell promised to “provide a stronger, more independent voice” for members of the Labour Party.

And in her acceptance speech, she said the government hadn’t been bold enough, and that it needed to step up.

So how much of a problem is she going to be for Keir Starmer?

Her new role – and being outside the cabinet – means she will be free to criticise the government, which could make life more difficult for the prime minister.

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Powell will take a ‘submarine approach’ – for now

Powell has been outspoken about her desire for the government to lift the two child benefit cap – and also called for the country to work for the many and not the few – a Corbyn-era slogan – and that Labour must stop handing the megaphone over to Reform and letting them run away with it.

Starmer will be conscious that an MP he sacked not long ago is now in a powerful role able to speak freely and attack his decisions.

But Powell is not free from her own controversies.

In May, Lucy Powell called grooming gangs a dog whistle issue – something she later had to clarify after it caused outrage among campaigners and opposition parties.

She also vocally defended Labour’s unpopular cut to winter fuel allowance while in cabinet, before the government then U-turned on the policy – she then criticised the proposed welfare cuts after she was sacked from government.

Powell insists she wants to help Keir Starmer, providing constructive criticism and a voice for Labour members.

But will Keir Starmer see it that way?

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Twenty warnings for Sir Keir Starmer from new deputy leader Lucy Powell

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Twenty warnings for Sir Keir Starmer from new deputy leader Lucy Powell

Labour’s new deputy leader Lucy Powell promised to be Sir Keir Starmer’s ally.

Yet in her victory speech she criticised his government and its record no fewer than 20 times. And told him to raise his game, or else.

Politics live: Follow for updates as Labour names new deputy leader

Here’s what she said – and what she meant:

  1. “Division and hate are on the rise. Discontent and disillusionment widespread.” What she meant: The Labour government has been a huge disappointment.
  2. “The desire for change is impatient and palpable.” What she meant: You’ve had 16 months to deliver change – voters are saying, “Get on with it”.
  3. “We have to offer hope, to offer the big change the country’s crying out for.” What she meant: Stop tinkering. Get more radical. You’ve got a huge Commons majority, after all.
  4. “We must give a stronger sense of purpose, whose side we’re on and of our Labour values and beliefs.” What she meant: We’re not doing enough for working people or tackling inequality.
  5. “People feel that this government is not being bold enough in delivering the kind of change we promised.” What she meant: Our voters are deserting us because they don’t see change.
  6. “I’ll be a champion for all Labour values and boldness in everything we do.” What she meant: Watch out! I’m going to hound you and hold your feet to the fire!
  7. “We won’t win by trying to out-Reform Reform, but by building a broad progressive consensus.” What she meant: Stop the lurch to the Right on immigration. We’re better than that.
  8. “It starts with wrestling back the political megaphone and setting the agenda more strongly.” What she meant: We need to sharpen up our communication and selling our message.
  9. “We’ve let Farage and his ilk run away with it.” What she meant: The Reform UK leader is running rings round us in communicating and campaigning. We’re too sluggish and flat-footed.
  10. “For too long the country and the economy has worked in the interests of the few and not the many.” What she meant: Winter fuel payment cuts were a disaster and the two-child benefit cap has to go.
  11. “Trickle down economics hasn’t worked.” What she meant: No more tax cuts for the rich. It’s time for a wealth tax, for example, to redistribute wealth.
  12. “Life has just got harder and harder, less and less secure in work, in housing, in making ends meet.” What she meant: We’re failing to tackle the cost of living crisis and housing shortages.
  13. “The deep-seated inequalities that have widened in wealth in regions in class in health need fundamentally redressing.” What she meant: We’re failing to look after our “red wall” voters.
  14. “Re-unite our voter coalition and re-unite the country.” What she meant: Start governing for everyone, urban and rural, rich and poor, North and South. Stop neglecting poorer regions.
  15. “We need to step up.” What she meant: For goodness sake, sort out the chaos in 10 Downing. Stop blaming aides and civil servants and sacking them. Get a grip!
  16. Members and affiliates “don’t feel part of the conversation or party of the movement right now. And we have to change that.” What she meant: Stop ignoring and alienating activists, MPs and unions.
  17. “Unity and loyalty comes from collective purpose, not from command and control.” What she meant: Stop the control freakery in parliament and party management. It’ll backfire.
  18. “Debating, listening and hearing is not dissent. It’s all strength.” What she meant: Listen to your backbenchers and stop suspending them when they vote against policies like welfare cuts.
  19. “As your deputy, my commitment is to change the culture.” What she meant: I’m going to stand up for rebels and critics and force you to ditch the control freakery and bad decisions.
  20. “At the election 16 months ago the British people voted for change. I’m here to do everything I can to make that change a reality.” What she meant: Raise your game, or else!

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She said it all with a smile, but there was menace there.

As deputy leader, Lucy Powell was always going to be a critical friend. So there you go, prime minister. Here’s 20 things you need to do for her to be more friend than critic.

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