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In recent years, Week 9 of the college football season has been good at shutting down fun upstart stories — or at least severely wounding them.

Think of unranked Wisconsin pummeling No. 9 Iowa, Mississippi State upsetting No. 12 Kentucky and Michigan State upending No. 6 Michigan in 2021. Or unranked Louisville upsetting No. 10 Wake Forest in 2022. Or Oregon blowing out No. 13 Utah in 2023 and No. 20 Illinois in 2024. Or Texas finishing off last season’s Diego Pavia-and-Vanderbilt episode. Before we get to November, where nearly everything we remember from a given season happens, we evidently have to declutter a bit.

Maybe that says foreboding things this week about Texas A&M, with its highest poll ranking in 30 years, playing a desperate LSU in Baton Rouge. Or an unbeaten BYU team playing at Iowa State. But how do the college football gods properly declutter this season? Who’s the upstart that falls when No. 10 Vanderbilt hosts No. 15 Missouri? How does an ACC race with five to seven contenders, none of whom were the preseason favorites, get cleaned up?

The 2025 season has broken containment, and as we careen toward November, let’s see if it’s even possible for it to start making sense. Here’s everything you need to follow in a cluttered Week 9.

Another huge SEC tripleheader

Though there’s a chance the SEC race gives us another Alabama-Georgia conference title game, I still believe we might have a major plot twist or two. Week 9 will help us figure out who might benefit from that plot twist, as the league again gives us a tripleheader of interesting matchups.

No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 20 LSU (7:30 p.m., ABC)

Tiger Stadium is typically an absolute cauldron at night; the home team has won eight straight in this series (six by multiple scores), and LSU is desperate after losses at Ole Miss and Vanderbilt. A&M coach Mike Elko’s most important task might be keeping his unbeaten Aggies dialed in amid an early sea of noise and emotion.

The next task will be scoring points. The Aggies have done plenty of that this season, but LSU ranks sixth in defensive SP+ and has yet to allow more than 10 points at home. The Tigers are better against the pass than the run, which could be an issue — even without the injured Le’Veon Moss, A&M averaged 6.2 yards per carry against Arkansas last week. But on third-and-3 or more, Marcel Reed and the Aggies are converting just 23.5% of the time, 129th nationally. Tiger Stadium can get awfully loud on third down.

LSU’s offense is showing signs of improvement. Even with leading receiver Aaron Anderson limited, the Tigers averaged 6.7 yards per play against South Carolina and Vanderbilt, though red zone failures kept the point totals tamped down. Tight end Trey’Dez Green is becoming a matchup nightmare, and LSU ran the ball well for once against Vanderbilt. If Garrett Nussmeier can complete even a couple of downfield passes, this becomes a very dangerous team. Unfortunately, we’re still waiting on that.

On passes thrown at least 25 yards downfield, Nussmeier is a shocking 1-for-16 this season. If you can’t create easy points from big plays, and you stink in the red zone, it becomes awfully difficult to score touchdowns.

A&M is No. 3 in the country, but the stakes are higher for the Tigers, both because they’ve run out of margin for error in the playoff hunt and because of the increasing heat on coach Brian Kelly. If the Aggies overcome this team and this environment, they are legit SEC, and potentially national title, contenders.

Current line: A&M -2.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 0.8 | FPI projection: A&M by 0.6

No. 15 Missouri at No. 10 Vanderbilt (3:30 p.m., ESPN)

On Oct. 18, 1947, No. 10 Vanderbilt hosted Bear Bryant’s 20th-ranked Kentucky Wildcats. Led by soon-to-be All-America center Jay Rhodemyre, Kentucky controlled the line of scrimmage, allowing just 151 total yards and getting just enough offense from George Blanda & Co. to prevail 14-0. The Commodores fell out of the AP top 10 … and didn’t return for 78 years. But here they are, ranked 10th and hosting Missouri and “College GameDay” on Saturday.

The Tigers and Commodores have lost only to Alabama, and one will be 7-1 and in the thick of the SEC and playoff hunts heading into November. If Mizzou wins, it will likely be Bear Bryant Kentucky-style, via the line of scrimmage. Ends Zion Young and Damon Wilson II key a Tigers defense that ranks seventh in success rate*, and after struggling to get Ahmad Hardy and the run game going against Alabama and Auburn, Missouri could get some respite against a Vandy defense that ranks just 62nd in yards allowed per carry (not including sacks). The Commodores are good at limiting big plays, but Mizzou will have an opportunity to generate efficiency for quarterback Beau Pribula.

The Tigers better do that because Vandy’s offense is as efficient as they come: The Dores are first nationally in points per drive and third in success rate. The offensive line is excellent, backs Sedrick Alexander and Makhilyn Young average 7.3 yards per carry, and quarterback Diego Pavia is the best improviser in the sport. The passing game isn’t particularly explosive, but it’s really hard to knock Vandy off-schedule.

(* Success rate: How frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second or 100% on third and fourth.)

Current line: Vandy -2.5 | SP+ projection: Vandy by 0.2 | FPI projection: Vandy by 1.3

No. 8 Ole Miss at No. 13 Oklahoma (noon, ABC)

From importance and “styles make fights” perspectives, Ole Miss’ first trip to Norman is one of the most interesting games of the week. As with Mizzou-Vandy, the winner will be in solid shape in the SEC race and in great shape for the College Football Playoff. Everywhere you look, it’s either strength-versus-strength or weakness-versus-weakness.

Ole Miss offense: 12th in points per drive
Oklahoma defense: second in points per drive

Oklahoma offense: 65th in points per drive
Ole Miss defense: 70th in points per drive

Oklahoma boasts the most aggressive defense in college football: Opponents have gained zero or fewer yards on 44.0% of snaps, most in the country. Ole Miss, however, has by far the best offense the Sooners have faced to date. Trinidad Chambliss and the Rebels just scored 35 points on a Georgia defense that had been allowing 17 per game. Chambliss’ No. 2 and 3 pass catchers (Deuce Alexander and tight end Dae’Quan Wright) are listed as questionable, but Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin and offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. can usually scheme up success.

Of course, Ole Miss also allowed 43 points to the Dawgs. The Rebels are awful against the run, but OU hasn’t established much in that regard. Oklahoma’s success comes via the pass, but Ole Miss is decent in that regard (despite a poor pass rush), and Sooners quarterback John Mateer has averaged just 4.5 yards per dropback since rushing back from a hand injury.

With the way Ole Miss faltered late against Georgia and the way OU’s offense has performed of late, I could be talked into a blowout in either direction here.

Current line: OU -5.5 (up from -3.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: OU by 5.0 | FPI projection: OU by 1.3


Who remains unbeaten?

We’re suddenly down to just six unbeaten teams: Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, Georgia Tech, BYU and Navy. The Buckeyes are off, and we mentioned A&M above, but here’s what the other perfect teams have in store.

UCLA at No. 2 Indiana (noon, Fox)

Surely UCLA can’t do it again, right? In the past three weeks, the Bruins have wrecked Penn State’s season (and James Franklin’s tenure), further wrecked Michigan State’s and hastened Maryland’s October demise. Now, they get a shot at Curt Cignetti’s brilliant Indiana Hoosiers.

The Bruins have turned around their season by creating negative plays and turnovers on defense and running the ball with ruthless efficiency behind backs Jalen Berger, Anthony Frias II and Jaivian Thomas. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava is making just enough plays with his legs to overcome his sack-prone tendencies. (He’s also practicing this week after suffering an injury against Maryland last Saturday.)

Of course, Indiana almost completely avoids negative plays and turnovers on offense and both defends the run aggressively and sacks QBs like few others (third nationally in sack rate). The Hoosiers should handle this test quite well, though at this point, it might be fair to ask, what doesn’t Indiana do well? Where might the Hoosiers be vulnerable to a challenge between now and what feels like an inevitable battle with Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game?

From a statistical standpoint, I can really find only two areas of concern.

1. The Hoosiers are strangely poor on fourth downs. They’re just 3-for-11 this season. Granted, this would be more of a problem if they weren’t fourth nationally in third-down conversion rate (54.9%), but something’s off there.

2. They’re sometimes too aggressive up front. They’re first nationally in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line), but when they give up a successful rush, it’s a pretty big one. Big plays are holding them back at least slightly.

Granted, it’s hard to complain too much about a defense that ranks third nationally in points allowed per drive, but big plays have been known to create upsets.

Current line: Indiana -25.5 (up from -23.5) | SP+ projection: Indiana by 27.9 | FPI projection: Indiana by 26.4

No. 11 BYU at Iowa State (3:30 p.m., Fox)

Not too long ago, Iowa State was 5-0 with wins over rivals Kansas State and Iowa and a blowout of Arizona. But after losing cornerbacks Jeremiah Cooper and Jontez Williams to ACL injuries, and with a nonexistent pass rush, the Cyclones gave up too many big plays in road losses to Cincinnati and Colorado. (The offense also failed in Boulder, turning 441 yards into just 17 points.)

What do you do when your unbeaten season is ruined? Try to ruin someone else’s! Coming off a bye week, ISU is somewhat surprisingly favored at home against unbeaten BYU. The Cougars have already survived a few tight Big 12 contests. Quarterback Bear Bachmeier is a lower-efficiency, higher-explosiveness passer, and he’s making a difference in the run game. Can ISU make enough stops? If not, can Rocco Becht and the offense keep up in a track meet?

Current line: ISU -2.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 3.2 | FPI projection: BYU by 1.2

Syracuse at No. 7 Georgia Tech (noon, ESPN)

Syracuse is 0-3 since quarterback Steve Angeli was lost for the season; Rickie Collins has thrown six interceptions in his past two games, and the Orange have lost to Duke, SMU and Pitt by an average of 33-11. Georgia Tech’s defense isn’t amazing but is probably good enough to keep Syracuse stuck in neutral.

Meanwhile, the Tech offense is the best the Orange have faced since Week 1 against Tennessee. It would be great for the Yellow Jackets if they could handle this one easily enough that Haynes King isn’t forced to run a lot and take lots of hits for once.

Current line: Tech -16.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 17.8 | FPI projection: Tech by 13.7

Florida Atlantic at Navy (3:30 p.m., CBSSN)

FAU is a unique out. Zach Kittley’s Owls go for it on fourth down more than half the time, they play at the nation’s second-fastest tempo and they hunt big plays. Unfortunately, they also rank 120th in success rate and 124th in turnovers. Their aggressiveness often fails to produce points (or give their defense a rest), and they’ve lost four games by an average of 27 points. Blake Horvath and Navy are projected underdogs in each of their past four games — at North Texas, at Notre Dame, vs. USF, at Memphis — but they should move to 8-0 here.

Current line: Navy -15.5 | SP+ projection: Navy by 19.3 | FPI projection: Navy by 11.1


Two old Big Ten rivalries (and great trophies)

They know trophies in the Big Ten. They also know 5-2 records. Eight of the conference’s 18 teams are 5-2, and any of those teams that can win out and get to the finish line at 10-2 will be in the CFP conversation.

This weekend gives us two of the sport’s best trophy games involving three members of the 5-2 club.

Minnesota at Iowa (3:30 p.m., CBS)

It’s really hard to beat the Floyd of Rosedale, a 98-pound bronze pig that Minnesota and Iowa have been fighting over for 90 years. Iowa has held on to it (him?) for nine of the past 10 years.

Iowa is the projected favorite in this one, both because of home-field advantage and because the Hawkeyes can run the ball and defend the run. They’re 17th in rushing success rate, a massive upgrade over a couple of years ago, and though quarterback Mark Gronowski threw for just 68 yards in last week’s win over Penn State, he rushed for 130 yards and two scores. Meanwhile, Iowa is allowing just 3.4 yards per carry, not including sacks.

The ground game can be all that matters in an Iowa-Minnesota game, but Minnesota is putting a lot on redshirt freshman quarterback Drake Lindsey’s right arm, and he’s holding up mostly well despite an inefficient ground game (103rd in rushing success rate). The Gophers were also brilliant last week, sacking Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola nine times, getting a 16-for-20 performance from Lindsey and even getting 148 rushing yards from Darius Taylor in a 24-6 win.

Current line: Iowa -8.5 | SP+ projection: Iowa by 10.2 | FPI projection: Iowa by 8.7

No. 25 Michigan at Michigan State (7:30 p.m., NBC)

The Paul Bunyan Trophy is a pretty good reward in a series that has seen some recent momentum shifts. Michigan State won eight of 10 between 2008 and 2017 — a run that included one of the most shocking endings of the 21st century — but Michigan has won five of the past seven.

Both of these teams need this one. Michigan’s excellent 24-7 win over Washington last week laid out a scenario in which the Wolverines are 9-2 and riding a five-game winning streak when Ohio State visits.

MSU, on the other hand, just needs something positive. The Spartans have lost four straight, all by double digits. Quarterback Aidan Chiles showed flashes of improvement early, but the Spartans’ offensive effectiveness has trailed off. Second-year coach Jonathan Smith is beginning to show up on “hot seat” lists, and though that seems foolish to me — you don’t hire a guy because of his long-term program-building prowess, then drop him in less than two seasons — this will still almost certainly be State’s fourth losing season in a row.

Current line: Michigan -14.5 | SP+ projection: Michigan by 15.8 | FPI projection: Michigan by 14.6


This week in the Group of 5

Memphis’ shocking loss to UAB last week threw the races for both the American title and the Group of 5’s guaranteed playoff bid into uncertainty, and at first glance, it seems like USF is best poised to take advantage. Guess who will play against each other this weekend? Memphis and USF! It’s the pretty obvious G5 game of the week, though I’ve got another interesting game to put on your radar, too.

No. 18 South Florida at Memphis (noon, ESPN2)

USF leaves no doubt. Apart from their 18-16 win over Florida, the Bulls have won five games by an average of 52-19 and suffered their lone loss (to Miami) 49-12. Alex Golesh’s offense is both ridiculously explosive and, thanks in part to quarterback Byrum Brown‘s legs, excellent on third downs. And after an average defensive SP+ ranking of 113.0 in Golesh’s first two seasons, the Bulls are currently 57th.

If last week was just a “stuff happens” loss for Memphis — interim-coached teams (like UAB) have been shockingly good so far this season — the Tigers should have plenty to offer, especially at home. They start and finish drives beautifully (eighth in three-and-out rate, third in red zone TD rate), and though their pass rush is problematic, they control the line of scrimmage against the run and force third-and-longs. They have an immediate chance to right last week’s wrongs and climb back to the top of the conference pecking order.

Current line: USF -4.5 | SP+ projection: Memphis by 5.4 | FPI projection: Memphis by 0.1

San Diego State at Fresno State (3:30 p.m., FS1)

If you’re looking for playoff alternatives outside of the American, take a gander at San Diego State. Starting with a 34-0 stomping of Cal, Sean Lewis’ Aztecs have won four straight, overachieving against SP+ projections by 17.3 points per game. They’re not reliable yet — they’ve scored 34-plus four times and under 14 twice, and they’ve allowed 7.4 points per game in wins and 36 in their lone loss. But corner Chris Johnson and edge rusher Trey White are two of the G5’s best playmakers, and if they can score enough against a solid Fresno State defense (not a given), their odds of reaching 11-1 improve considerably.

Current line: SDSU -2.5 | SP+ projection: SDSU by 6.1 | FPI projection: SDSU by 2.7


It’s Dakota Marker time!

FCS: No. 1 North Dakota State at No. 2 South Dakota State (8 p.m., ESPNU)

South Dakota State lost coach Jimmy Rogers to Washington State and more than 20 transfers, including quarterback Mark Gronowski (Iowa), to FBS teams. North Dakota State lost a few stars, too, including running back CharMar Brown (Miami) and safety Cole Wisniewski (Texas Tech). The transfer portal can hit you especially, hard even at the FCS level.

Oh right, I almost forgot: NDSU and SDSU are a combined 14-0 this season.

SDSU’s stats have slipped slightly, though big quarterback Chase Mason has 1,419 passing yards and thrown 11 touchdowns and one interception, and the pass defense is as nasty as ever, with 12 interceptions and 18 sacks in seven games. NDSU, however, has established a level of dominance we haven’t seen from the Bison in a while. The defending FCS champs have outscored opponents by an average of 44-10, and only one opponent has stayed closer than 27 points. Quarterback Cole Payton is producing Mason-like stats, and the receiver trio of Bryce Lance, RaJa Nelson and Reis Kessel is averaging 20.1 yards per catch. Based on their current SP+ rating, the Bison would be in the top 40 in FBS.

We’ve seen intriguing performances from programs such as Tarleton State (third in SP+) and Harvard (fourth), but until proven otherwise, these remain FCS’ defining programs. And for the third time since 2022, the Dakota Marker is a 1-versus-2 battle. The No. 2 team won both of the previous games, and it wouldn’t be a shock if SDSU pulled off a home upset. But it would definitely be an upset — the Bison have been at a different level thus far.

SP+ projection: NDSU by 6.9


Week 9 chaos superfecta

We’re once again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. We ended a three-week losing streak with a two-fer last week, so we’re back to 4-4 for the year.

This week, we set our sights on the Big 12. SP+ says there’s only a 54% chance that Cincinnati (75% win probability against Baylor), Utah (86% against Colorado), TCU (84% against West Virginia) and Texas Tech (99% against Oklahoma State) all win. I say there’s a 0% chance!


Week 9 playlist

Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.

Friday evening

California at Virginia Tech (7:30 p.m., ESPN). After the turmoil of the past few years, Cal reaching 5-2 is a cool story. But the Golden Bears have gotten here while beating only one team better than 90th in SP+. Virginia Tech is only 91st, but the interim-coached Hokies have been more competitive over the past month and are favored despite their 2-5 record.

Current line: Tech -4.5 | SP+ projection: Cal by 0.9 | FPI projection: Tech by 6.6

Early Saturday

Auburn at Arkansas (12:45 p.m., SECN). This is easily the most stylistically interesting game of the week in the SEC. In league play, Auburn games have averaged 32.8 total points, while Arkansas games have averaged 76.0. It’s like the two teams are playing different sports at the moment, though they’re both losing at those sports. (Combined SEC record: 0-7.)

Current line: Arkansas -2.5 (flipped from Auburn -1.5) | SP+ projection: Auburn by 0.3 | FPI projection: Arkansas by 0.2

Northwestern at Nebraska (noon, FS1). Something has clicked for Northwestern: The Wildcats have won four in a row, and over the past three, they’ve overachieved against SP+ projections by 19.6 points per game. Nebraska is favored for a reason, but Matt Rhule’s Huskers were pretty poor in last week’s loss to Minnesota, and Northwestern’s defense is just as good as the Gophers’.

Current line: Huskers -8.5 | SP+ projection: Huskers by 12.0 | FPI projection: Huskers by 7.2

Kansas State at Kansas (noon, TNT). Kansas State’s past three games have been its best three of the season, and the sight of Kansas on the other sideline tends to bring out the Wildcats’ best — they haven’t lost the Sunflower Showdown since 2008. Kansas got a week off to recover from a humbling loss at Texas Tech; in which direction does the Jayhawks’ season go from here?

Current line: KU -2.5 | SP+ projection: KU by 5.0 | FPI projection: KU by 1.7

No. 16 Virginia at North Carolina (noon, ACCN). UVA tried pretty hard to lose to Washington State at home last week, while UNC went across the country and played its best game of 2025. It’s at least conceivable that Bill Belichick’s Heels can pull a surprise. Still, UVA’s offense is so clean, with minimal negative plays and efficiency via run and pass, that the Cavaliers get the benefit of the doubt.

Current line: UVA -10.5 (up from -8.5) | SP+ projection: UVA by 12.6 | FPI projection: UVA by 11.9

SMU at Wake Forest (noon, The CW). These teams went a combined 4-4 in September but are 5-0 in October. Wake plays great defense with the most all-or-nothing offense you’ll see, and SMU’s defense has rounded back into form after a poor start. The Mustangs need this one for ACC contention, but Jake Dickert has Wake moving in a very fun direction.

Current line: SMU -3.5 | SP+ projection: SMU by 4.1 | FPI projection: SMU by 4.8

Saturday afternoon

No. 23 Illinois at Washington (3:30 p.m., BTN). Washington has averaged just 12.3 points per game against top-15 defenses (per SP+) and 51.3 against defenses ranked 85th or lower. Illinois’ defense is in the middle (48th), so I guess we assume the Huskies score 30 or so? Illinois can probably hit that mark against a shaky-but-improving UW defense, too. This should be fun.

Current line: UW -3.5 | SP+ projection: UW by 3.7 | FPI projection: UW by 2.9

No. 4 Alabama at South Carolina (3:30 p.m., ABC). After a blowout loss at home, South Carolina turned around its 2024 season by nearly toppling Alabama in Tuscaloosa, then winning six straight. The circumstances are even worse for the Gamecocks this time — last week’s 19-point loss to Oklahoma dropped them to 3-4 — but maybe they still have a turnaround in them? Maybe Alabama suffers a letdown after four straight wins against ranked teams? Possibly? Yeah, I’m not convinced either.

Current line: Bama -12.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 10.5 | FPI projection: Bama by 10.7

Baylor at No. 21 Cincinnati (4 p.m., ESPN2). Baylor lives to entertain: Five of the Bears’ seven games have topped 60 total points, and they’re 19th in offensive SP+ and 98th on defense. Cincinnati doesn’t mind a good track meet, but the Bearcats’ bend-don’t-break defense has improved of late. With games against Utah and BYU looming, Cincy’s Big 12 title hopes would take a hit with an upset loss.

Current line: Cincy -3.5 (down from -5.5) | SP+ projection: Cincy by 10.9 | FPI projection: Cincy by 4.5

No. 22 Texas at Mississippi State (SECN). Mississippi State is 0-3 in SEC play, but two losses went down to the wire. So did Texas’ frustrating overtime win at Kentucky last week. The MSU offense is quickly losing steam, but the Texas offense hasn’t really had any. One assumes the elite Texas defense drives another win, but this could be tight for a while.

Current line: Horns -7.5 | SP+ projection: Horns by 7.2 | FPI projection: Horns by 9.5

Western Michigan at Miami (Ohio) (3:30 p.m., ESPN+). WMU probably didn’t want a bye last week — the smoking-hot Broncos have won four straight since an 0-3 start, overachieving against projections by 21.3 points per game. Now, they trek to Oxford to face a Miami team that has also gone from 0-3 to 4-3. The winner of this one heads into November’s midweek MACtion slate as the conference title favorite.

Current line: Miami -1.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 2.5 | FPI projection: Miami by 0.5

Oklahoma State at No. 14 Texas Tech (4 p.m., ESPNU). With quarterback Behren Morton injured, Tech suffered its first blemish of the season at Arizona State last week. Backup Will Hammond appears likely to start again Saturday, but even without Morton (or tortillas), one assumes the Red Raiders should manhandle an OSU team that has fallen to an almost inconceivable 121st in SP+.

Current line: Tech -38.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 39.3 | FPI projection: Tech by 34.6

Saturday evening

Houston at No. 24 Arizona State (8 p.m., ESPN2). ASU has won 11 of its past 13 Big 12 games, and both of the losses were without Sam Leavitt. After Saturday’s injury-aided victory over Tech, the Sun Devils could be in great shape to return to the conference title game with a win here. But they’ll have to take on a strong Houston defense without star receiver Jordyn Tyson (hamstring), and Houston’s offense is coming off two strong performances.

Current line: ASU -6.5 (down from -8.5) | SP+ projection: ASU by 0.9 | FPI projection: ASU by 6.0

No. 17 Tennessee at Kentucky (SECN). Kentucky showed signs of life for the first time in a while against Texas. Was that the start of something or a last gasp? If it’s the former, Tennessee has underachieved against SP+ projections for five straight games and could be vulnerable after last week’s demoralizing loss to Bama. If it’s the latter, never mind.

Current line: Vols -7.5 (down from -9.5) | SP+ projection: Vols by 10.4 | FPI projection: Vols by 7.3

Stanford at No. 9 Miami (7 p.m., ESPN). Consider this a good temperature check for Miami after its first setback of the season against Louisville. The Hurricanes will likely roll over Stanford regardless, but with a big trip to SMU looming, now’s the time for a bounce-back game from quarterback Carson Beck and fewer missed tackles from the defense.

Current line: Miami -29.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 29.4 | FPI projection: Miami by 26.6

Wisconsin at No. 6 Oregon (7 p.m., FS1). Against teams ranked worse than 60th in SP+, Oregon has gone 5-0 with an average score of 51-9. Wisconsin is most certainly worse than 60th. In fact, after back-to-back shutout losses, the Badgers would probably take the nine points if offered. Hmm. Tell me why I listed this game?

Current line: Ducks -32.5 | SP+ projection: Ducks by 31.6 | FPI projection: Ducks by 29.4

Late Saturday

Colorado at Utah (10:15 p.m., ESPN). Utah needs to win out to keep its conference title hopes alive and is favored in each remaining game. But quarterback Devon Dampier is listed as questionable after an injury against BYU, and Colorado has dropped hints of defensive competence. Kaidon Salter and the Buffaloes also have some big-play potential on offense. This one might not be a gimme.

Current line: Utah -12.5 (down from -14.5) | SP+ projection: Utah by 17.0 | FPI projection: Utah by 11.2


Smaller-school showcase

Let’s once again save a shout-out for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Besides Dakota Marker, here are three games you should track.

FCS: No. 16 Presbyterian at Dayton (12 p.m., YouTube). We’re getting pretty used to incredible turnaround stories in college football — hello, Indiana and Vanderbilt — but hello, Presbyterian. In their first 16 years in FCS, the Blue Hose averaged 2.8 wins per season and won more than four games once. They were known primarily for hiring the Never Punts guy in 2021, and they went 1-10 in 2022, Steve Englehart’s first year in charge. But they won their last four games of 2024, three by blowouts, to jump to 6-6 and 85th in FCS SP+.

Seven games into 2025, Englehart’s team is unbeaten and up to 16th! They’re outscoring opponents by an average of 41-14. From quarterback Collin Hurst to a secondary that has picked off 10 passes, they have no obvious weaknesses, and they’re charging toward their first FCS playoff bid. This one could be tricky, though, because Dayton is up to 31st in SP+. Last week’s tight loss to Butler ended a five-game winning streak, but the Flyers are allowing only 16.1 points per game.

SP+ projection: Presbyterian by 4.9.

Division II: No. 18 Grand Valley State at No. 1 Ferris State (1 p.m., FloCollege). Always make room for the Anchor-Bone Classic! Top-ranked Ferris State looks as good as ever despite having lost quarterback Trinidad Chambliss (Ole Miss) and several other offensive stars to high-level FBS rosters. Redshirt freshman quarterback Wyatt Bower is posting even better numbers than Chambliss did, as the assembly line keeps cranking out talent. GVSU, however, needs this one. The Lakers are 4-2 after an upset loss to Saginaw Valley State last week, and their playoff résumé might not withstand another defeat.

SP+ projection: Ferris State by 12.9.

Division III: No. 8 Wisconsin-Platteville at No. 9 Wisconsin-Whitewater (2 p.m., local streaming). Three weeks into my favorite small-school conference title race — D-III’s Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference — we have a glorious six-team logjam at 2-1. No. 12 Wisconsin-La Crosse hosts No. 24 Wisconsin-Oshkosh in one matchup of 2-1 teams, but the big one’s in Whitewater, Wisconsin, where two top-five defenses, per SP+, will likely dictate one of the sport’s most physical games at any level.

SP+ projection: UWW by 4.1.

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Where LSU ranks among the open Power 4 jobs

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Where LSU ranks among the open Power 4 jobs

The 2025-26 coaching cycle wasn’t expected to be calm, like its predecessor. But few forecast such a robust line of storms rolling through the sport in the first half of the season.

All four power conferences have had a firing. Penn State’s ouster of James Franklin, midway through his 12th season and barely 10 months removed from the team playing for a spot in the national title game, sent a message around the sport: Almost no coach is safe. Franklin and Oklahoma State’s Mike Gundy, fired Sept. 23 from his alma mater, have a combined record of 298-150 in the FBS. LSU’s intention to dismiss Brian Kelly during his fourth season has, again, reset the market.

There are eight Power 4 schools looking for head coaches: Stanford, UCLA, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Penn State, Florida and, now, LSU. Two other notable non-Power 4 jobs, Oregon State and UAB, also are on the hunt. More openings certainly could come, including Auburn and Kentucky in the SEC, Wisconsin in the Big Ten and Florida State in the ACC. And that’s not even counting the inevitable vacancies that will occur when sitting head coaches leave for other jobs.

The process of ranking the open jobs contains hard data, such as win-loss performance over time, recent postseason appearances and, while controversial to some, recruiting/transfer class rankings. The College Football Playoff is a major factor, both in terms of access and the varying pressure levels coaches face to be part of the 12-team field occasionally or regularly. Money matters more than ever in the sport, although accurately gauging each school’s financial strength (or appetite) is tricky. They all say they’re committed to winning.

“It’s a little bit different now than just saying, ‘Oh, it’s the SEC or the Big Ten,'” a coaching agent said. “It’s about where can you be successful within your conference to have a chance to go to the playoff?”

Leadership stability also resonates. How secure is the athletic director hiring the coach? University presidents move around much more frequently than they used to and have final say on major investments such as football coach hires. What’s the presidential situation at these schools?

The following Power 4 jobs rankings are based on the following five areas:

I tried to view these jobs as coaches do and ask: Which jobs offer the best path to success in the respective league? Which had the right mix of support and expectations? The SEC and Big Ten are the two most well-resourced leagues, but not every SEC or Big Ten job is better than every Big 12 or ACC job.

Here’s a look at the current rankings:

Opened: Sunday with LSU’s plan to move on from Brian Kelly

On-field performance: There’s a volatility at LSU that can’t be ignored, but neither can the potential for almost any coach — in almost any year — to reach the very top of the sport. In the BCS/CFP era since 1998, only three FBS programs have won three or more national titles: Alabama has six, while Ohio State and LSU each have three. Like Ohio State, LSU had three consecutive permanent coaches win titles in Nick Saban, Les Miles and Ed Orgeron. From Saban’s second season in 2001 until the most recent national championship in 2019, LSU had 16 finishes in the AP top 20 and nine in the top 10. Since Saban’s arrival in 2000, LSU is 247-85, tied with Alabama for sixth-most wins, and has had only two seasons with fewer than eight victories. But the program also has only one top-10 finish in the final CFP standings.

Access to CFP: The SEC will be well-represented in the 12-team playoff format this year and in future seasons, especially if the model gets larger. Despite only one CFP appearance, resulting in the national title, LSU certainly can become an annual playoff contender with the right head coach and strong financial alignment. The Tigers won BCS titles in 2003 and 2007 and played for another in 2011. Their 2018 team that won 10 games would have made a larger CFP field. The right hire will put LSU in position to access the playoff on a much more regular basis.

Roster-building: Here is where LSU should really thrive under the right coach going forward. Of the top talent-producing states in the SEC footprint, only LSU and Georgia don’t have to deal with another conference competitor, and LSU doesn’t even have another Power 4 team within its state borders. Many top players from New Orleans, Baton Rouge and other parts of Louisiana grow up dreaming of playing at Tiger Stadium. LSU had top-10 recruiting classes under Kelly and made a big transfer portal push this past offseason, adding cornerback Mansoor Delane and wide receivers Nic Anderson and Barion Brown.

University leadership: The LSU job comes with questions about leadership both with athletics and on campus. Athletic director Scott Woodward, an LSU alum who has led the department since 2019, hired Kelly and awarded him a massive contract, which the school is now paying out. Woodward fired Orgeron less than two years after arguably the greatest season in college football history, and the team hasn’t really come close to a CFP return. LSU has an interim university president in Matt Lee, who took over the role in July after serving as dean of its College of Agriculture. The search for a permanent president is down to six finalists. Located in the state capital of Baton Rouge, LSU is a highly politicized environment, and Gov. Jeff Landry reportedly was included in discussions about the school’s separation with Kelly.

Financial support: LSU has the money to compete at the sport’s highest level, but achieving the ideal alignment between the program’s power brokers hasn’t always been easy. The investment went up for LSU’s 2025 roster, which featured key players being retained, including quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, and portal additions along both lines of scrimmage and on the perimeter at wide receiver and defensive back. The Tigers ranked No. 1 overall in ESPN’s offseason rankings, which fueled optimism about what this roster could do this fall. After paying out Kelly, LSU must reinvest for its next coach and give him the resources for staff, personnel and other areas to compete right away in an increasingly deep SEC.

Why the job ranks here: LSU hasn’t won consistently enough since its last national title, but the ingredients of a top-shelf job are there, especially location and fan support. As a coaching agent said the week before LSU made its move, “If LSU came open, that’s by far the best job on the market, easily.” Now it has.


Opened: Oct. 12 with firing of James Franklin

On-field performance: PSU is 44-17 since the start of the 2021 season and 90-33 since the start of the 2016 season. The Lions won their most recent Big Ten title in 2016 and reached the league title game last season. They also made their CFP debut in 2024, beating SMU and Boise State before falling to Notre Dame 27-24 in a semifinal matchup at the Orange Bowl. Only seven other FBS teams have won more than 90 games since 2016, and Penn State has six 10-win seasons during that span. The team had six CFP top-12 finishes before making the expanded field. Penn State’s last national title came in 1986.

Access to CFP: As a Big Ten member, Penn State doesn’t have to win its conference or, in some seasons, even reach the league title game, to qualify for the CFP. Franklin’s teams certainly would have had more CFP appearances if the field was 12 teams earlier. But the Big Ten schedule is tougher, featuring road trips to the West Coast and the emergence of Indiana, a historic bottom-feeder, under coach Curt Cignetti. Penn State still has had — and should have — one of the league’s most talented rosters, and certainly boasts a true home field when Beaver Stadium is fully activated, especially at night. Seasons of nine or more wins are realistic and attainable and, for the most part, will vault teams such as Penn State into the CFP mix.

Roster-building: Penn State remains, by far, the most historically successful program in the Northeast, and can access recruiting hotbeds there as well as to the Southeast (Washington D.C. area) and to the West (Ohio, Michigan). “If you’re doing it right, you’ve got Jersey, New York, you can reach into the DMV,” a former Penn State staff member said. Penn State consistently has top-20 recruiting classes and has stepped up its investment for transfers, bringing in several notable wide receivers this offseason. The Lions had the No. 3 overall offseason and have proven they can retain top players and add new stars.

University leadership: Pat Kraft is in his third year as athletic director and showcased the power he has obtained in making a difficult midseason coaching change. He’s regarded as one of the nation’s top athletic directors and views Penn State as a destination job after stints at Boston College and Temple. University president Neeli Bendapudi also has been in her role since 2022 and has shown a strong commitment to athletics and football, greenlighting key investments, including what will be a very expensive coaching transition. Franklin often recognized the support he received from both Kraft and Bendapudi.

Financial support: A school doesn’t make a front-end financial decision such as firing Franklin without being committed on the back end with his replacement and a top group of on-field assistants and supporting staff. Kraft made it clear that Penn State is positioned to compete for national championships. Beaver Stadium is undergoing a $700 million renovation, and Penn State has been aggressive in retaining top players, and adding key transfers and assistants such as defensive coordinator Jim Knowles. Penn State’s upcoming apparel partnership with Adidas will bring increased revenues to athletics.

Why the job ranks here: Despite a longer-than-expected national championship drought, Penn State has been very close to a breakthrough and has the financial structure to make the next step. The Big Ten is a bit deeper but doesn’t have as many CFP-ready programs as the SEC. Penn State is undoubtedly one of them.


Opened: Oct. 19 with firing of Billy Napier

On-field performance: The lack of a single College Football Playoff appearance is jarring for a program that won three national championships between 1996 and 2008. Florida is 28-30 since the start of the 2021 season, tied for 84th nationally in winning percentage (.483). The Gators had three consecutive top-10 finishes in the CFP standings from 2018 to 2020 and would have made the field several times under former coach Dan Mullen if it were larger. But the team has largely floundered in SEC play in recent years, losing three or more conference games in eight of the past 12 seasons (not counting 2025).

Access to CFP: The SEC affords Florida both a larger number of entry points and more profile-boosting opportunities. The league is also increasingly deeper, not only with the additions of Oklahoma and Texas, but with the emergence of teams such as Missouri and now Vanderbilt. Florida’s rival Tennessee is coming off a CFP appearance, and perennial underachiever Texas A&M is the league’s only unbeaten team in 2025. Plus, you have to deal with Alabama, Georgia, LSU and others. Florida will need to leapfrog several programs and hope some teams come back down to earth in the coming years.

Roster-building: Talk to coaches who faced Napier’s Florida’s teams and it became clear that talent wasn’t what held back the Gators. “They look pretty,” an SEC coordinator said before facing Florida. “They’ve got good-looking players.” Florida signed the nation’s No. 10 recruiting class in both 2024 and 2025, headlined by players such as quarterback DJ Lagway, edge rusher LJ McCray and wide receivers Dallas Wilson and Vernell Brown III. Napier wasn’t nearly as active in the portal, preferring to develop players through high school recruiting, but Florida’s next coach should have the ability to push for more top transfers.

University leadership: Most SEC athletic directors don’t get a third chance at hiring a football coach after the first two don’t pan out, but Florida’s Scott Stricklin will have that opportunity here. Stricklin, who has led Florida’s athletic department since 2016, received a contract extension last month that takes him through October 2030. Florida has excelled in other sports, including a men’s basketball national title in April, but football has fallen short under Stricklin’s watch. The university in August named an interim president in Donald Landry, after selecting Michigan’s Santa Ono this spring, only to have the hire rejected. Florida hasn’t had much stability since early 2023.

Financial support: For years, Florida thrived on the field without making major investments in facilities and other key areas of the program. The frustration with the Napier era was that the university made commitments in multiple areas, and the team’s performance still regressed. In his statement announcing Napier’s firing, Stricklin said: “UF has never been more invested in the success of this football program — elite facilities, robust NIL opportunities and comprehensive support for our student athletes and staff — than we are today.” But will that be enough? As a Florida staffer noted this week, “With money for the most part being equal going forward, this is not an elite job.”

Why the job ranks here: Florida is the only SEC program in a state loaded with talent and now has the financial infrastructure to support its coach as he chases a national championship. But the overall coaching churn and uneven results in Gainesville can’t be ignored.


Opened: Sept. 23 with firing of Mike Gundy

On-field performance: Two things can be true: The program has cratered since the start of the 2024 season, but Oklahoma State also played for a Big 12 title in 2023 and 2021. The Pokes also had seven 10-win seasons between 2010 to 2023. The Pokes are 33-26 since the start of the 2021 season — 4-14 in the last season plus — and are 76-46 since the start of the 2016 season. They are still one of the top remaining brands in a Big 12 Conference without Oklahoma and Texas, and recorded 10 AP Top 25 finishes between 2008 and 2023.

Access to CFP: This category should boost the Oklahoma State job in the eyes of coaches and their representatives. The Big 12 doesn’t have historic powers like the other three power conferences, and should have a wide-open race for one or more CFP spots in most seasons. In early 2022, Gundy was bullish about what Oklahoma State could become in a reshaped league, telling ESPN, “Put all the schools down on paper and look at the success they’ve had — the wins, the bowl games, all the stuff — over 15 years, then Oklahoma State should be leading the charge. I’m just going on success, the facts. That doesn’t mean that we start on any higher level. What that means is if we push forward and make a strong commitment, then we could get to a high level in the new conference.” Despite the recent struggles, he isn’t wrong, and the right coach could soon help Oklahoma State rise again.

Roster-building: Gundy’s recruiting classes rarely popped on the national radar and seemed to fall off in recent years, but for a long time he consistently developed players, especially quarterbacks and wide receivers, and found talent within the state and in nearby north Texas. Oklahoma State can access the Dallas recruiting market and other regional hotbeds. The key is to have a stronger approach toward personnel, both high school recruiting and transfers, and the financial clout to attract and retain top players. Gundy’s NIL comments ahead of the Oregon game clearly backfired on him, but Oklahoma State has to rally more financial support for its next coach to compete with Texas Tech and other Big 12 programs that have stepped up.

University leadership: When Oklahoma State was rolling, the school had a stable (if combustible) triumvirate of Gundy, athletic director Mike Holder and super booster T. Boone Pickens. Even after Pickens died in 2019, there seemed to be enough alignment between Gundy, athletic director Chad Weiberg and university president Kayse Shrum, who led the university from July 2021 until February. Her surprising resignation, amid questions about how funds were appropriated, pushed Oklahoma State into a period of uncertainty. Weiberg’s contract ended July 30 but he continued working as AD, and will remain in the role, president Jim Hess recently told The Tulsa World. Hess took over as interim president following Shrum’s resignation but was named to the permanent role in April. He and Weiberg must project stability during the search and ultimately rally donors behind their selection.

Financial support: Even after Pickens’ death, Gundy believed in the financial muscle of Oklahoma State’s booster base, telling ESPN in 2022, “There’s a lot of Oklahoma State people that have done well in the corporate world and have money to invest and donate. But it really helps when you’re winning and having success because people want to be a part of a winner.” Oklahoma State hasn’t been winning and Gundy is gone, so it’s imperative for Weiberg and Hess to rally support behind the next coach. The school once was way ahead in facilities but fell behind with NIL and the areas needed to win in today’s game. “You’ve got fan attendance, you’ve got donors that just didn’t like Gundy and are willing to spend,” an industry source said. “And you got a conference that other than Texas Tech, your resources are going to be near the highest point.”

Why the job ranks here: If Oklahoma State has a strong plan, it should be able to rise fairly quickly in a league without behemoth brands. The team isn’t far removed from CFP contention and can get there faster than other programs on this list.


Opened: Sept. 14 with firing of Brent Pry

On-field performance: The program’s heyday under Hall of Fame coach Frank Beamer has faded a bit but remains more visible than others on this list. From 1993 to 2011, Beamer’s teams went 185-58, ranking second behind Florida in wins and fourth in winning percentage (.761). Virginia Tech had AP Top 25 finishes in all but three years during that span, while winning seven conference titles and playing for a national title in 1999. Beamer’s successor Justin Fuente had some initial success — winning 19 games in his first two seasons — but Virginia Tech hasn’t won more than seven games in a season since 2019. Virginia Tech has a large and loyal fan base that can provide a top home-field advantage, but the team needs to give those people a reason to care.

Access to CFP: Here’s where the job could really pop, especially if the CFP field expands and there are more slots for the ACC to have multiple entries. Virginia Tech’s best attribute is being a football-first school with a winning tradition that, if supported correctly with the right people in charge, could become a semiregular contender for league championships again. The ACC has more notable brands than the Big 12 does in Clemson, Florida State and Miami, but all have been vulnerable, even this season. And after those three, which program can match Virginia Tech’s history and potential? “The climb to the top is not nearly as steep as the climb in those other leagues,” a Virginia Tech source said. “If you’re at Florida, Auburn or Arkansas, you’re playing Ohio State every week. Here, you can play Wake, Georgia Tech and Boston College.”

Roster-building: Virginia Tech might never dominate regional recruiting like it did under Beamer, but its ability to access pockets of talent certainly remains. There are good players within the state, certainly in the Washington D.C. area, and Virginia Tech can also easily recruit North Carolina and Tennessee from its location. The key will be retaining players, as Virginia Tech saw cornerback Mansoor Delane and other notables from the 2024 team transfer out, and being increasingly more competitive for top transfers.

University leadership: Whit Babcock has led Virginia Tech’s athletic department since 2014 and hired both Fuente and Pry. But his true influence on the next coaching hire — and the program at large — is being debated. He has been visible in the campaign for additional athletics department funding, and last month the school’s board added $229 million to the department’s budget during the next four years. Coaches still should be asking pointed questions about how much longer Babcock remains in Blacksburg. University president Timothy Sands has also been in his role since 2014. He has a hands-on role in athletics and also serves as chair of the NCAA Division I Board of Directors.

Financial support: Virginia Tech has never had trouble drumming up interest in its football program. It has lacked the finances to maintain its place in college football’s hierarchy. But the recent board decision and upcoming budget increase could be a game changer, both for the type of candidate Virginia Tech attracts — or, potentially, in Shane Beamer’s case, bring back — and how the program operates going forward. “We know that Virginia Tech is not going to be status quo, but they’ve still got to show some deliverables on that,” an industry source said. “If Virginia Tech wasn’t making this new $229 million cash infusion, you wouldn’t think about it.”

Another industry source pointed out, “If you’re Virginia Tech, you’re never going to be resourced, like Miami, Clemson and Florida State.”

Why the job ranks here: Virginia Tech is a football school in a winnable conference that can take a significant step with newfound financial backing and the right coaching hire.


Opened: Sept. 28 with firing of Sam Pittman

On-field performance: Arkansas is the ultimate wild card on this list. The program has a great long-term history, including a 1964 national championship and an impressive run in the Southwest Conference from 1959 to 1989, which included 10 league titles and 19 AP top-20 finishes. But life in the SEC hasn’t been kind to the Razorbacks, other than brief spurts under Houston Nutt and Bobby Petrino, and the recent results have been very poor. Since the start of the 2017 season, Arkansas is just 40-63 with only three winning seasons and just one with more than seven victories. The Hogs haven’t had a winning record in SEC play since 2015, and the conference is only getting tougher.

Access to CFP: Perhaps more than any other category, CFP access is a problem for Arkansas. SEC membership affords more opportunities to access the playoff, especially if and when the system expands in the coming years but think about how many teams Arkansas must rise beyond to work its way into contention. There are the SEC’s traditional powers — Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Tennessee, even Florida — new additions with CFP credentials in Texas and Oklahoma, programs with more resources and better locations such as Texas A&M and Auburn, and emerging teams such as Ole Miss, Missouri, South Carolina and now Vanderbilt. Even if Arkansas can maximize its vast financial potential, it has so much competition for still a relatively small number of CFP spots.

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Arkansas AD Yurachek explains the details on Pittman firing

Hunter Yurachek speaks to the media on the decision and process of letting go the respected Sam Pittman, the decision to move forward with Bobby Petrino and further expectations.

Roster-building: Arkansas doesn’t have as large a pool of high-level in-state recruits as most other SEC teams. The Razorbacks need a strong hit rate on who they get, and then develop, retain and attract others to fill out their roster. Arkansas has historically accessed Texas but the presence of Texas A&M and now Texas and Oklahoma makes things harder. The team also looks to the Memphis area, as well as states such as Louisiana, Georgia, Florida and Alabama. “It’s an awesome place,” an industry source said. “They’ve got a great fan base, they’ve got a great home venue, they’ve got facilities. They’ve got a lot of things there. It’s just, you’ve got few players in your state.”

University leadership: Athletics director Hunter Yurachek has been in his role since December 2017. He technically has hired two football coaches but wasn’t overly involved in the search that landed Chad Morris until the very end. Yurachek, who made previous AD stops at Houston and Coastal Carolina, has made some bold moves at Arkansas, such as hiring John Calipari in men’s basketball, Pittman in football and interviewing Deion Sanders for the football job. His recent comments about Arkansas’ ability to compete for national championships in football drew criticism and a later clarification, so there’s some tension around him. Charles Robinson has served as Arkansas’ chancellor since November 2022 after an interim period.

Financial support: There’s a ton of money in northwest Arkansas and around the university, especially through the Walmart and Tyson Foods connections. The key is whether Yurachek and Arkansas can drum up enough support for football to give the program a better chance at competing with the SEC heavies. “Arkansas has the booster network that is capable of doing something significant,” an industry source said. “I don’t know if they will, but they can.” Perhaps Yurachek’s recent comments (and clarification) will be an inflection point for Arkansas’ deep-pocketed stakeholders, as money is a differentiator for the program. “Historically, it’s been one of the bottom jobs in that league, in terms of proximity to players and all those things,” an industry source said. “But in this new era, it should be and could be a much better job than what it’s been in the past, but it all hinges on the financial investment.”

Why the job ranks here: Despite success in other sports, Arkansas’ backslide in football and position within an increasingly challenging conference creates a steep climb to CFP relevancy. Arkansas has definite growth potential but must improve at harnessing local financial support.


Opened: March 25 with firing of Troy Taylor

On-field performance: Recency bias factors in here, as Stanford not long ago was among college football’s most consistently strong programs. From 2010 to 2017, Stanford went 85-23, tying for sixth nationally in best winning percentage (.787). The Cardinal had three straight AP top-7 finishes from 2010 to 2012, finished No. 3 in 2015 and finished outside of the AP top-20 just once. But the transfer portal/NIL era in the sport hasn’t been kind to Stanford, which didn’t adjust well and quickly slipped on the field. The dissolution of the Pac-12 and joining the ACC as a West Coast school has brought challenges, too. Stanford has had four consecutive 3-9 seasons. Although interim coach Frank Reich has outperformed expectations this year at 3-4, Stanford won’t be favored in many games down the stretch.

Access to CFP: The ACC doesn’t have as many elite programs to climb over as the SEC or Big Ten, and should supply multiple CFP berths in most seasons. But Stanford has some significant challenges, especially its location and the strain of long road trips. The Cardinal will regularly travel multiple time zones away from campus, and face league members with more direct access to recruiting hubs such as South Florida, Atlanta, Dallas and Washington D.C. Stanford would have made the CFP several times if the field were 12, but regaining anywhere near that level of consistent excellence will be much tougher in this environment.

Roster-building: Stanford is coming off of a hellish offseason that included the spring coaching change and the departures of several top players, including linebacker David Bailey (Texas Tech), wide receiver Emmett Mosley V (Texas) and quarterback Bear Bachmeier, now starting for undefeated BYU. On the flip side, Stanford recruited those players and seemed to be improving its roster. General manager Andrew Luck is all in and definitely a positive force for the program’s future. But Stanford will always have its limitations, especially with transfers. The portal can’t be such a net negative for the program to compete in the ACC. “If they can get back to recruiting good linemen, good tight ends, a good quarterback, defensive line, they’re going to have the money you can get a Stanford kid that wants to be there,” an industry source said. “The thing about Stanford is, if you can get kids, you can really develop them, because if they’re there, they want the Stanford degree, so they’re not going to transfer.”

University leadership: The arrival of new leadership in both Luck (hired in November) and athletic director John Donahoe, previously CEO at Nike, should elevate optimism about Stanford’s future in football. Donahoe’s business experience might be especially valuable. Then again, Stanford is an elite private school that sponsors 36 sports and wants to be great at all of them. Where does football really fall on the list of priorities? University president Jon Levin has been in his role since August 2024, after leading Stanford’s business school as dean for the previous eight years.

Financial support: Earlier this month, Stanford announced a $50 million gift from alum Bradford M. Freeman that will go to the football program. Levin called it a “game-changing gift,” and Luck mentioned scholarships and institutional NIL in his statement. Stanford has financial streams but also one of the smaller fan bases in the Power 4, and a massive athletic department that wants to excel in basketball, baseball and the Olympic sports. The key will be upgrading the recruiting operation after its second coaching transition in three years — after 12 years of David Shaw — and keeping its best players on The Farm.

Why the job ranks here: Stanford’s recent on-field struggles, awkward placement in the ACC and limited recruiting pool creates some unavoidable obstacles, but Luck’s leadership and a renewed commitment to the program generates genuine hope.


Opened: Sept. 14 with firing of DeShaun Foster

On-field performance: UCLA hasn’t completely bottomed out like some other programs on this list, but the team also hasn’t won anything substantial in a generation. The Bruins’ last conference title came in 1998, capping a stretch of three in six seasons. UCLA had five AP top-10 finishes between 1982 and 1988 and consecutive top-8 finishes in 1997 and 1998. But since then, the program has fallen mostly into irrelevance, while fan apathy has grown. The Bruins had only one AP Top 25 finish under Chip Kelly, billed as a transformational hire at the time, and haven’t won 10 games in a season since 2014. They have posted a winning record in conference play just twice since 2016.

Access to CFP: Just like the SEC, the Big Ten will afford its members more CFP slots, no matter how the format changes in the future. But UCLA has so many teams to climb over — teams with more recent success, more fervent support and better resources. Of the four West Coast schools added to the Big Ten, UCLA lagged behind the other three in most key categories. Washington and Oregon have played for a national title in the playoff era, and USC has at least had three CFP top-10 finishes in the past decade. UCLA has finished in the final CFP standings just twice, and never higher than 14th.

Roster-building: UCLA is the only current open job located right in the middle of a major recruiting hub. There’s talent throughout Southern California, and UCLA has to get more top players to Westwood. DeShaun Foster made some brief recruiting inroads, and UCLA made a big personnel splash this spring by adding Tennessee quarterback transfer Nico Iamaleava, a Long Beach native. If UCLA continues to invest in transfers like Iamaleavea, it could move up in the Big Ten. But for far too long UCLA’s location hasn’t been the major advantage it should be.

University leadership: There’s a lot of attention on athletic director Martin Jarmond, who has been in his role since May 2020. He drew criticism for his handling of the last UCLA coaching transition, when Chip Kelly strung along the school before taking Ohio State’s offensive coordinator role, leading to Jarmond’s promotion of Foster, who wasn’t on the head-coaching radar anywhere else. Chancellor Julio Frenk has been in his role since January, after nearly a decade as president at Miami, which increased its investment in the football program. “The biggest problem there is the [University of California] system, and the stadium,” an industry source said. “Leadership, stadium resources are a real issue.”

Financial support: The good news is it’s not as bad as it used to be. UCLA built a nice on-campus operations center, made a major coaching splash by hiring Kelly and flexed this spring with the Iamaleava transfer. But questions remain about UCLA’s financial commitment, even if they’re rooted more in perception than reality. Everyone has seen the pictures of a half-empty Rose Bowl, and the interest level in UCLA in the crowded Los Angeles sports and entertainment market seems lukewarm at best. Money certainly motivated UCLA’s move to the Big Ten, and the school now must show its commitment to help its next coach. “UCLA can absolutely get behind the program and spend more money,” an industry source said. “But I don’t think they have the booster network to all of a sudden jump to the top quarter of the league in funding.”

Why the job ranks here: UCLA hasn’t been consistently good for a long time and now plays on the Western flank of a conference with more top-tier programs that have fewer problems acquiring talent and filling their stadiums.

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Brian Kelly out at LSU: Top candidates, transfers, recruits

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Brian Kelly out at LSU: Top candidates, transfers, recruits

For the third consecutive Sunday in October, a major college football coaching job has opened, and LSU is the biggest of them all.

Brian Kelly is out midway through his fourth year at LSU, and a night after his third loss of the 2025 season. LSU was blown out 49-24 by Texas A&M, which scored 35 unanswered points to win in Tiger Stadium for the first time since 1994. An LSU season that began with national championship aspirations and a road win against Clemson — the Tigers’ first season-opening win under Kelly — sidetracked very quickly with consecutive losses to Vanderbilt and Texas A&M.

Kelly, who stunningly left Notre Dame for a chance to win his first FBS national championship, never even made the College Football Playoff at LSU. He won a division title in his first season in 2022 but never finished higher than 13th in the final CFP standings. Kelly is the first LSU coach to not win a national championship there since Gerry DiNardo, whose tenure ended after the 1999 season. Kelly finishes his Tigers tenure at 34-14, having lost multiple games in SEC play in all four seasons on the Bayou.

LSU’s decision throws another surprising twist into an incredibly active coaching cycle. Although Penn State and Florida are both A-list jobs, LSU is in a tier of its own. In a state rich with talent, LSU is the only Power 4 program. The fact that three very different coaches — Nick Saban, Les Miles and Ed Orgeron — won national championships there speaks to the job’s potential and overall excellence.

Is it a perfect job? No. The politics and occasional dysfunction around LSU are baked in. Athletic director Scott Woodward’s future is also in question after the Kelly hire failed so miserably and led to a $54 million buyout. But the potential at LSU is massive, and every candidate knows what the program can be when everything is aligned. Buckle up. Things are about to get even wilder. — Adam Rittenberg

Candidates | Transfers | Recruits

Five candidates for the job

Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin: LSU’s firing of Kelly could be really bad news for Florida, which has made little secret of its desire to bring Kiffin to Gainesville. Perhaps Florida can still get its man, but Kiffin should be near or at the very top of LSU’s wish list. He wouldn’t have to deal with in-state competitors there and would lead a program with few if any limitations with resources, facilities and fan base. Kiffin, 50, is 51-19 at Ole Miss and has the Rebels positioned for their first CFP appearance this season, which could end up hurting his chances to take another job. But he doesn’t need to be sold on LSU’s history and the recruiting advantages. He is 112-53 as an FBS coach.

Tulane coach Jon Sumrall: He’s arguably the hottest name outside of the Power 4 and will have opportunities to lead higher-profile programs soon, especially in the SEC. Sumrall, 43, is already in the state at Tulane, which is 15-6 under his watch and positioned for a possible American conference title and its first CFP appearance this season. He also was an assistant at Tulane from 2012 to 2014 and knows the recruiting scene in and around New Orleans as well as anyone. The jump to the Power 4 and a program like LSU can’t be ignored, but those who know Sumrall expect him to transition well. He played in the SEC at Kentucky and coached linebackers at both Ole Miss and Kentucky before landing his first head coaching job at Troy, which he led to consecutive Sun Belt titles. Sumrall is 38-10 as an FBS coach.

Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman: Would LSU successfully swipe Notre Dame’s coach twice in a row? It’s hard to say. Should LSU make inquiries about Freeman? Absolutely. He has established himself as one of the sport’s top young coaches at just 39. Freeman is the first Notre Dame coach to win a CFP game — three in fact — as he guided the Fighting Irish to the national championship game last fall. He’s 38-12 as Notre Dame’s coach and has the team positioned for a possible CFP return if it can win out. Coincidentally, Freeman turned down LSU’s defensive coordinator job with Orgeron to join Kelly at Notre Dame. Freeman has spent his entire career in his native Ohio or neighboring Indiana, and a move to the SEC could be jarring. He ultimately might target the NFL as his next step, but he would at least have to consider a top program such as LSU.

Georgia Tech coach Brent Key: He’s a Georgia Tech guy and has his alma mater positioned for a run at the ACC title and the program’s first CFP appearance. Key wouldn’t leave for just any job, but he would have to consider LSU. He’s no stranger to the program after coaching Alabama’s offensive line from 2016 to 2018 under Saban and participating in the annual LSU showdown. Key, 47, grew up in Alabama and has spent his entire career in the Southeast, including more than a decade at UCF in various roles. Key is 26-16 at Georgia Tech as a first-time head coach and has thrived in big games with a 7-1 record against ranked ACC opponents. He would bring a clear recruiting vision and an approach based around the line of scrimmage to LSU.

Missouri coach Eliah Drinkwitz: After Kiffin, Drinkwitz could be the top SEC coaching candidate who would look to move within the conference. He has led Missouri since 2020, building a consistent, respected program that is 27-7 since the start of the 2024 season, including a No. 8 finish and a Cotton Bowl title in 2023. Drinkwitz, 42, is an Arkansas native who came up under Gus Malzahn and worked at Auburn early in his coaching career. He hasn’t taken down many SEC heavyweights but also hasn’t been leading one of the conference’s historic powers. Drinkwitz should be able to upgrade LSU’s offense and has been an aggressive and successful recruiter. Given greater reach and resources at LSU, he could really do some damage there. — Rittenberg


Most important players to retain

The Tigers put together one of the top portal classes in the country this offseason, a veteran group loaded with starting experience and NFL potential, in the hopes they could add all the right missing pieces for a national championship run. But there’s a ton of valuable blue-chip talent in this program, particularly from LSU’s most recent top-10 recruiting class, that rival coaches will be trying to poach now that this job is open.

CB DJ Pickett: Pickett became one of the Tigers’ most talented defenders as soon as he set foot on campus. The five-star true freshman from Florida is about as rare of an athlete as it gets at his position as a 6-foot-5, 195-pound cover man, and he hasn’t struggled to adjust to SEC competition. Pickett gave up just seven catches for 70 yards on 16 targets, with zero passing touchdowns and one interception, through his first seven games, according to ESPN Research. Rival coaches see a future first-round draft pick two years from now and would love an opportunity to try to flip Pickett via the portal this offseason.

TE Trey’Dez Green: The sophomore pass catcher emerged as an outstanding playmaker in the Tigers’ attack, turning 21 catches into 264 receiving yards and four touchdowns on the year. Green is a matchup nightmare as a 6-7, 240-pound athlete and one of the fastest tight ends in the country with a max speed of 19.7 mph this season, according to data from Teamworks.

LB Whit Weeks: Weeks, a first-team All-SEC selection in 2024, will have to decide at the end of the year whether he’s ready to enter the NFL draft or would rather come back for his senior season. The 6-2, 225-pound captain has been seriously missed over the Tigers’ past two losses as he recovers from an ankle injury. He has started 20 career games and produced 203 tackles, 16 tackles for loss and 5 sacks for the Tigers’ defense.

RB Harlem Berry: The No. 1-ranked running back recruit in the 2025 class looks well on his way to becoming one of the more exciting playmakers in the SEC. Berry, a speedy 5-11, 190-pound back, has rushed for 225 yards and two TDs on 4.9 yards per carry and earned his first career start against Texas A&M. If Caden Durham can get healthy and back to playing at a high level, he and Berry give this LSU offense a dynamic duo to continue to build around next year.

OT Carius Curne: Curne, the No. 133 overall player in the 2025 ESPN 300, is having to learn on the go against top-10 SEC opponents, making his first start at right tackle against Ole Miss and moving to left tackle against Texas A&M. The 6-5, 320-pound freshman got injured against the Aggies but has flashed big-time talent and could potentially play tackle or guard as he develops. The Arkansas native will be an important player for the future of this LSU offensive line. — Max Olson


Three key recruits

DT Lamar Brown, No. 1 in ESPN 300: Brown’s July commitment marked the Tigers’ recruiting peak under Kelly, and if LSU manages to hold on to his pledge under a new staff, he’ll arrive as the program’s first No. 1 overall recruit since Leonard Fournette in the 2014 class. The 6-5, 285-pound defender hails from nearby Erwinville, Louisiana, and attends high school on the LSU campus. Still, multiple schools — Texas A&M and Miami, most prominently — came close to pulling Brown out of Louisiana in the summer. As both programs flirt with College Football Playoff contention this fall, it would be no surprise if either the Aggies or Hurricanes, or any handful of the nation’s other premier programs, try to flip the nation’s No. 1 overall prospect over the next month.

DE Trenton Henderson, No. 61 in ESPN 300: It has been four cycles since the Tigers signed a top-100 defensive end prospect. Henderson kicked off a strong run of LSU summer recruiting in July when the versatile edge rusher from Pensacola, Florida, picked the Tigers over Florida and Texas. Auburn and Michigan were also involved in Henderson’s process earlier this year. A highly productive sack machine across his junior and senior seasons, Henderson will surely attract late-cycle interest from major programs if he reopens his recruitment.

WR Jabari Mack, No. 64 in ESPN 300: LSU landed high-level wide receiver commits, but the program often struggled to get them signed in the late stages of Kelly’s tenure, headlined by Dakorien Moore‘s decommitment in the 2025 class and five-star 2026 pass catcher Tristen Keys‘ flip to Tennessee in August. Given that recent history, prospects such as Mack will be critical to the Tigers’ future pipeline at the position. The 6-foot, 200-pound receiver from Destrehan, Louisiana, is viewed as a potential high-impact, vertical threat at the next level, which is why spring finalists Ohio State, Texas and Texas A&M could soon be among the programs to circle back with Mack before the early signing period. — Eli Lederman

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Byron, Larson get last spots in NASCAR title finale

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Byron, Larson get last spots in NASCAR title finale

MARTINSVILLE, Va. — With a Championship 4 spot on the line, William Byron put the bumper to Ryan Blaney to win at Martinsville Speedway on Sunday in the third-round finale of the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs.

Byron made his winning move with 43 laps remaining, seizing the bottom lane in Turn 1 and moving Blaney up the track by tagging him in the left rear.

The Hendrick Motorsports driver led the rest of the way and fended off Blaney on a restart with 11 laps remaining. Starting from the pole position, Byron led a race-high 304 of 500 laps for his third victory this season in the No. 24 Chevrolet.

“I thought William drove the race of his life,” said Hendrick vice chairman Jeff Gordon, a four-time Cup champion and nine-time winner at Martinsville himself.

It was the first win in 11 races since August at Iowa Speedway for Byron, who won the regular-season championship despite a six-month drought after opening the year with his second consecutive Daytona 500 victory.

He had one top-five finish (a third at New Hampshire Motor Speedway) in the previous eight playoff races and opened the third round with a 36th at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and a 25th at Talladega Superspeedway that left him in a win-or-else position to make his third consecutive Championship 4 appearance.

Byron delivered with his 16th career Cup victory — his first in a playoff elimination race and third at Martinsville.

“Damn, I got a lot to say,” Byron said. “Things have a way of working out. God really tests your resilience a lot of times. We’ve been tested. Just unbelievable. We just worked so hard, and you put everything into Sundays. Sometimes you don’t get anything in return. That’s been the last couple of weeks and honestly throughout the year. But sometimes life is that way. You just got to keep being resilient. We were. Just feels damn good.”

Blaney also was in a must-win situation to advance to the championship round. Trying to win his third consecutive playoff race at Martinsville, came up one spot short despite qualifying 31st and leading 177 laps on the 0.526-mile oval.

There were no hard feelings afterward as Blaney congratulated Byron in Victory Lane.

“That’s just two guys going for it, I don’t blame him for taking that,” Blaney said about the contact with Byron on the pass for the lead. “I would have done the same thing. I knew it was going to be tight. I tried to crowd him as much as I could. Just proud of the effort from the team. They gave 100% of what they had, and that’s all you can ask. Wasn’t quite enough.”

Kyle Larson, Byron’s Hendrick Motorsports teammate, captured the final championship-eligible berth in the season finale with a fourth-place finish that put him seven points ahead of Christopher Bell, who was seventh.

“What a performance by William,” Larson said. “Happy for Hendrick Motorsports. This win is as good as it could have been for us to score more points than Christopher then have William win, too. Hopefully one of us can win it.”

Bell again was the first driver left out of the Championship 4, but he could live with the outcome more than last year’s race when he was bounced by Byron in a finish tainted by manipulation.

“I feel content with the results,” Bell said. “The four are legitimate contenders. Whoever the champion is, it’s going to be well-deserving.”

Byron and Larson advanced to face Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe in the title round Nov. 2 at Phoenix Raceway, where the championship will be awarded to the driver with the best finish of the four drivers who are split evenly between Joe Gibbs Racing and Hendrick.

Along with Bell and Blaney, third-place finisher Chase Elliott and defending series champion Joey Logano (eighth) also were eliminated from the playoffs.

With Blaney and Logano locked out of the Phoenix title race, Team Penske’s streak of three consecutive Cup championships was snapped.

Hamlin and Briscoe both suffered engine failures during Sunday’s race.

Hamlin, who opened the third round with a Las Vegas Motor Speedway victory to advance to the title race, was running second on the 334th lap when he pulled his sputtering No. 11 Toyota into the garage.

It was the third playoff race with a mechanical problem for Hamlin, who also needed a push from team members Saturday when his car failed to start in qualifying.

“I felt like the car was coming to us and was just starting to close in on Blaney,” said Hamlin, who finished 35th after winning at Martinsville in March. “I didn’t feel anything. The engine was running and then not. We’ll work on it. I’m obviously concerned, but obviously nothing I can do about it. So we’re going to have to live with it and hopefully we get lucky next week.”

Briscoe finished last when his No. 19 Toyota lost power after 295 laps, but the JGR driver already had locked into the Championship 4 with his Oct. 19 victory at Talladega Superspeedway.

“Went to upshift and something happened,” said Briscoe, who was running 12th before the failure. “Not really sure but next week is what it’s all about anyway.”

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