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U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping shake hands before their bilateral meeting during the G-20 leaders summit in Osaka, Japan on June 29, 2019.

Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

The mere prospect of a U.S.-China trade deal is enough to send markets higher.

On Monday stateside, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite closed at record highs — with the broader market index breaking past the 6,800 level for the first time.

And that’s before an agreement has been signed officially.

“A lot of the forecasts for technology have been without the benefit of China, so once you can add China back into the equation, that would probably be fairly optimistic for the markets,” Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, told CNBC.

Nvidia, for instance, gave an estimate for the current quarter that excludes H20 shipments to China — a reminder of how trade restrictions have complicated the outlook for U.S. tech giants.

A formal U.S.-China deal that clarifies — and perhaps loosens — trade parameters could prompt Big Tech companies to raise their guidance, potentially igniting another wave of buying in a market already dominated by tech heavyweights.

Beyond silicon and software, soybeans are back in play. Reports suggest China may ease its unofficial boycott of U.S. soybeans as part of the agreement. That would go some way toward assuaging Scott Bessent’s pain because he’s not just the U.S. Treasury Secretary, but also a soybean farmer, as he put it in a televised interview.

While Bessent meant that literally — he owns soybean farmland — in the broad trade war between China and the U.S., trade tensions have made daily life more difficult for most of us, turning us all into reluctant farmers of one kind or another. A truce, if it comes, might let everyone harvest some peace.

What you need to know today

Trump suggests an agreement with China is imminent. Speaking aboard Air Force One on Monday, Trump said he and Chinese President Xi Jinping are going to “come away with” a trade deal. The U.S. president also signaled a TikTok deal could come on Thursday.

Amazon is preparing to announce largest layoffs in its history. The cuts, which will impact almost every division, will begin Tuesday, according to a person familiar with the matter. Up to 30,000 employees will be affected, Reuters reported.

HSBC beats earnings expectations. Third-quarter profit before tax came in at $7.3 billion, higher than the $5.98 billion estimate compiled by the bank. However, that figure was 14% lower from a year earlier because of higher operating expenses.

Record highs for U.S. stocks. The three major U.S. indexes and the Russell 2000 rose Monday to close at all-time highs. Asia-Pacific markets slipped Tuesday. South Korea’s Kospi fell even as the country’s economy expanded more than expected in the third quarter.

[PRO] Time to put cash elsewhere when Fed cuts rate. The returns of money market funds depend on prevailing interest rates. When the Fed all but certainly cuts rates, investors should start moving their funds out of cash instruments, analysts say.

And finally…

President and CEO of Saudi’s Aramco, Amin H. Nasser, speaks during the Future Investment Initiative (FII) in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia October 29, 2024.

Hamad I Mohammed | Reuters

How Saudi Arabia is diversifying away from oil — and betting big on AI

According to Saudi Arabia’s Minister for Investment Khalid Al Falih, 50.6% of the Saudi economy is now “completely decoupled” from oil.

The country is doubling down on fast-growing sectors such as artificial intelligence for growth. Al Falih said the kingdom will be a “key investor” in developing AI applications and large-language models, adding that Saudi Arabia would also build data centers “at a scale and at a competitive cost not achieved anywhere else.”

— Lim Hui Jie

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Beta stock jumps 9% on $1 billion motor deal with air taxi maker Eve Air Mobility

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Beta stock jumps 9% on  billion motor deal with air taxi maker Eve Air Mobility

Beta Technologies strikes $1B electric motor manufacturing deal with Eve Air Mobility

Beta Technologies shares surged more than 9% after air taxi maker Eve Air Mobility announced an up to $1 billion deal to buy motors from the Vermont-based company.

Eve, which was started by Brazilian airplane maker Embraer and is now under Eve Holding, said the manufacturing deal could equal as much as $1 billion over 10 years. The Florida-based company said it has a backlog of 2,800 vehicles.

Shares of Eve Holding gained 14%.

Eve CEO Johann Bordais called the deal a “pivotal milestone” in the advancement of the company’s electric vertical takeoff and landing, or eVTOL, technology.

“Their electric motor technology will play a critical role in powering our aircraft during cruise, supporting the maturity of our propulsion architecture as we progress toward entry into service,” he said in a release.

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Amazon launches cloud AI tool to help engineers recover from outages faster

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Amazon launches cloud AI tool to help engineers recover from outages faster

Mateusz Slodkowski | SOPA Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images

Amazon’s cloud unit on Tuesday announced AI-enabled software designed to help clients better understand and recover from outages.

DevOps Agent, as the artificial intelligence tool from Amazon Web Services is called, predicts the cause of technical hiccups using input from third-party tools such as Datadog and Dynatrace. AWS said customers can sign up to use the tool Tuesday in a preview, before Amazon starts charging for the service.

The AI outage tool from AWS is intended to help companies more quickly figure out what caused an outage and implement fixes, Swami Sivasubramanian, vice president of agentic AI at AWS, told CNBC. It’s what site reliability engineers, or SREs, do at many companies that provide online services.

SREs try to prevent downtime and jump into action during live incidents. Startups such as Resolve and Traversal have started marketing AI assistants for these experts. Microsoft’s Azure cloud group introduced an SRE Agent in May.

Rather than waiting for on-call staff members to figure out what happened, the AWS DevOps Agent automatically assigns work to agents that look into different hypotheses, Sivasubramanian said.

“By the time the on-call ops team member dials in, they have an incident report with preliminary investigation of what could be the likely outcome, and then suggest what could be the remediation as well,” Sivasubramanian told CNBC ahead of AWS’ Reinvent conference in Las Vegas this week.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia has tested the AWS DevOps Agent. In under 15 minutes, the software found the root cause of an issue that would have taken a veteran engineer hours, AWS said in a statement.

The tool relies on Amazon’s in-house AI models and those from other providers, a spokesperson said.

AWS has been selling software in addition to raw infrastructure for many years. Amazon was early to start renting out server space and storage to developers since the mid-2000s, and technology companies such as Google, Microsoft and Oracle have followed.

Since the launch of ChatGPT in 2022, these cloud infrastructure providers have been trying to demonstrate how generative AI models, which are often training in large cloud computing data centers, can speed up work for software developers.

Over the summer, Amazon announced Kiro, a so-called vibe coding tool that produces and modifies source code based on user text prompts. In November, Google debuted similar software for individual software developers called Antigravity, and Microsoft sells subscriptions to GitHub Copilot.

WATCH: Amazon rolls out AI-powered tools to help big AWS customers update old software

Amazon rolls out AI-powered tools to help big AWS customers update old software

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Amazon to let cloud clients customize AI models midway through training for $100,000 a year

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Amazon to let cloud clients customize AI models midway through training for 0,000 a year

Attendees pass an Amazon Web Services logo during AWS re:Invent 2024, a conference hosted by Amazon Web Services, at The Venetian hotel in Las Vegas on Dec. 3, 2024.

Noah Berger | Getty Images

Amazon has found a way to let cloud clients extensively customize generative AI models. The catch is that the system costs $100,000 per year.

The Nova Forge offering from Amazon Web Services gives organizations access to Amazon’s AI models in various stages of training so they can incorporate their own data earlier in the process.

Already, companies can fine-tune large language models after they’ve been trained. The results with Nova Forge will lean more heavily on the data that customers supply. Nova Forge customers will also have the option to refine open-weight models, but training data and computing infrastructure are not included.

Organizations that assemble their own models might end up spending hundreds of millions or billions of dollars, which means using Nova Forge is more affordable, Amazon said.

AWS released its own models under the Nova brand in 2024, but they aren’t the first choice for most software developers. A July survey from Menlo Ventures said that by the middle of this year, Amazon-backed Anthropic controlled 32% of the market for enterprise LLMs, followed by OpenAI with 25%, Google with 20% and Meta with 9% — Amazon Nova had a less than 5% share, a Menlo spokesperson said.

The Nova models are available through AWS’ Bedrock service for running models on Amazon cloud infrastructure, as are Anthropic’s Claude 4.5 models.

“We are a frontier lab that has focused on customers,” Rohit Prasad, Amazon head scientist for artificial general intelligence, told CNBC in an interview. “Our customers wanted it. We have invented on their behalf to make this happen.”

Nova Forge is also in use by internal Amazon customers, including teams that work on the company’s stores and the Alexa AI assistant, Prasad said.

Reddit needed an AI model for moderating content that would be sophisticated about the many subjects people discuss on the social network. Engineers found that a Nova model enhanced with Reddit data through Forge performed better than commercially available large-scale models, Prasad said. Booking.com, Nimbus Therapeutics, the Nomura Research Institute and Sony are also building models with Forge, Amazon said.

Organizations can request that Amazon engineers help them build their Forge models, but that assistance is not included in the new service’s $100,000 annual fee.

AWS is also introducing new models for developers at its Reinvent conference in Las Vegas this week.

Nova 2 Pro is a reasoning model whose tests show it performs at least as well as Anthropic’s Claude Sonnet 4.5, OpenAI’s GPT-5 and GPT-5.1, and Google’s Gemini 3.0 Pro Preview, Amazon said. Reasoning involves running a series of computations that might take extra time in response to requests to produce better answers. Nova 2 Pro will be available in early access to AWS customers with Forge subscriptions, Prasad said. That means Forge customers and Amazon engineers will be able to try Nova 2 Pro at the same time.

Nova 2 Omni is another reasoning model that can process incoming images, speech, text and videos, and it generates images and text. It’s the first reasoning model with that range of capability, Amazon said. Amazon hopes that, by delivering a multifaceted model, it can lower the cost and complexity of incorporating AI models into applications.

Tens of thousands of organizations are using Nova models each week, Prasad said. AWS has said it has millions of customers. Nova is the second-most popular family of models in Bedrock, Prasad said. The top group of models are from Anthropic.

WATCH: Amazon set to kick off AI conference next week: Maxim’s Tom Forte on what to expect

Amazon set to kick off AI conference next week: Maxim's Tom Forte on what to expect

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