Google investors have big expectations after stock’s sharpest quarterly rally in 20 years

Published

12 hours ago

October 28, 2025

admin

Google CEO Sundar Pichai waves as he arrives to attend the Artificial Intelligence (AI) Action Summit at the Grand Palais in Paris, France, February 11, 2025.

Benoit Tessier | Reuters

Alphabet has a high bar to clear when it reports earnings Wednesday.

The company’s stock price soared 38% in the third quarter, its best quarterly performance in two decades. It’s continued to rally, climbing 11% so far in October, closing at a record on Monday.

With revenue growth stuck in the low teens of late, and expected to come in at 12% next year, investors have recalibrated their expectations after witnessing speedier growth in the years before the 2022 slowdown. Much of the recent optimism centers around Google’s improved position in the artificial intelligence race.

However, the biggest catalyst for the stock in the third quarter had more to do with Google’s relative weakness in AI, compared with its standing in online ads.

Stock Chart IconStock chart icon

Alphabet vs. Nasdaq

Alphabet shares soared in early September, when Google avoided the worst-case scenario in its search antitrust case. Following the government’s victory in its case against the company last year, U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta ruled in the remedies decision last month that Google would not be forced to sell off its Chrome browser, but must share data with competitors.

Mehta said that the rise in AI services from companies like OpenAI has created plenty of new competition in search. Backing up his point, OpenAI last week unveiled ChatGPT Atlas, an AI-powered browser that could directly challenge Chrome.

While investors immediately cheered Mehta’s ruling, Google now has to show that it’s a force in AI, which is serving as the growth engine for the tech sector. Google’s cloud unit benefits from the AI boom as companies count on the technology for running large language models and expanding workloads. And Google is heavily investing in Gemini, its family of AI models, products and services.

Over the weekend, analysts at KeyBanc Capital Markets raised their price target on Alphabet to $300 from $265, expecting that third-quarter results will “show that faster product velocity is driving momentum in Search, Cloud and Waymo,” its autonomous vehicle business.

The stock pop, the analysts wrote, is due to “a combination of the DOJ Search remedies trial being more favorable than expected and more signs of progress in AI across business units.”

Alphabet is scheduled to report results after the bell on Wednesday, alongside rivals Microsoft and Meta. Apple and Amazon report the following day.

Wall Street is expecting to see revenue growth of 13% to $99.89 billion and earnings per share of $2.26, according to LSEG.

‘The bite isn’t fatal’

When it comes to Google’s position in AI, some analysts see reasons for concern.

Bernstein analysts wrote last month after the remedies decision that Mehta’s comments about generative AI competing with search may be a red flag for investors.

“The bite isn’t fatal but it still stings,” wrote the analysts, who have the equivalent of a hold rating on Alphabet.

Mehta dedicated roughly 30 pages of the 226-page filing to explaining generative AI and the market as it exists today. He described the space as “highly competitive” and wrote that there have been “numerous new market entrants” with access to “a lot of capital.”

ChatGPT accounts for about 81% of the global AI chatbot market, according to September data from StatCounter. Perplexity is second at 11%, followed by Microsoft Copilot at 4.1% and Gemini at 2.8%, the firm said.

But Google is aggressively pushing Gemini as far more than just a ChatGPT competitor, and is taking advantage of its strength in various markets for distribution.

Earlier this month, the company launched Gemini Enterprise, targeting corporate clients with agents that perform specific work tasks. In September, Google announced it was rolling out Gemini in Chrome to Mac and Windows users in the U.S. as well as to mobile devices, allowing users to ask Gemini for help understanding the contents of a particular web page, work across tabs, or do more within a single tab, such as schedule a meeting or search for a YouTube video.

Google CEO Sundar Pichai said this month at Salesforce’s Dreamforce conference that Gemini 3, the latest version of the company’s AI model, will be released this year.

Google has to show it's protecting search this earnings season, says G Squared's Victoria Greene

Analysts at Mizuho said in a report about the internet market last week that “competitive risks from OpenAI across the internet landscape, particularly at Google, have been topic #1” in more than 100 recent conversations with investors.

Still, they said that they see “competitive fears likely to recede as we refocus on fundamentals with earnings.” For Google, the “imminent roll-out of Gemini 3 could further tilt the sentiment for Alphabet shares toward AI-winner, at least near term,” they wrote.

Even as the remedies resolution was generally welcomed by investors, the company will have to make some concessions, according to the judge’s ruling. Most notably, Google has to make available certain search data and user data to its “qualified competitors.”

Determining which companies fall into that category will be the job of a technical oversight committee at a date that hasn’t yet been announced.

Services like DuckDuckGo and Microsoft Bing may be among the beneficiaries, potentially receiving improved access to some of Google’s search index data under specific licensing arrangements.

Mehta wrote that the data-sharing remedies “can help to close the sizeable advantage Google has in answering long-tail queries, thereby improving product quality and attractiveness to new users.”

Baird analysts wrote that they expect a “modest” impact to Google, because the company doesn’t have to share its data with generative AI competitors like Perplexity and OpenAI. That would have been “more problematic,” the Baird analysts wrote.

Google, which plans to appeal the ruling, declined to comment, but pointed to an earlier blog post on the judge’s decision.

“We have concerns about how these requirements will impact our users and their privacy, and we’re reviewing the decision closely,” the company wrote.

Abiel Garcia, a former deputy attorney general for the California Department of Justice, working in antitrust, said he doesn’t see the ruling having an impact on the way Google operates.

“Maybe some of the data will help competitors’ products at the periphery, but I don’t think this is going to really shift anything,” Garcia, who’s now a partner at Kesselman, Brantly & Stockinge, told CNBC. “It almost encourages Google’s roll-the-dice behavior.”

WATCH: Google’s search empire under fire

Technology

We’re raising our Corning price target after a shortsighted post-earnings decline

Published

4 hours ago

October 28, 2025

admin

We're raising our Corning price target after a shortsighted post-earnings decline

Technology

Can AI create next ‘Grand Theft Auto’? Take-Two Interactive CEO says no

Published

4 hours ago

October 28, 2025

admin

Can AI create next 'Grand Theft Auto'? Take-Two Interactive CEO says no

Strauss Zelnick, the CEO of video game publisher Take-Two Interactive, said he is not a “naysayer” when it comes to the promise of artificial intelligence. But at the same time, Zelnick, who leads the company that publishes the “Grand Theft Auto,” “NBA 2K,” “Red Dead” and “Borderlands” video game series, said the signs that the technology is having an impact on game development and production are “still limited.”

That’s for two reasons, Zelnick told a room of technology executives at CNBC’s Technology Executive Council Summit in New York on Tuesday.

The first reason — which is increasingly placing AI companies at odds with Hollywood, musicians and other creative industries — is intellectual property.

“We have to protect our intellectual property, but more than that, we have to be mindful of others,” Strauss told CNBC’s Steve Kovach in an interview at the CNBC event. “If you create intellectual property with AI, it’s not protectable.”

The data-rights clash between content owners and the AI industry has resulted in a string of licensing deals, lawsuits and ongoing criticism as AI companies continue to seek out more data sets to train their large language models.

However, the debate took another twist upon the release of OpenAI’s video creation app Sora last month, which allows users to generate near-realistic, short-form AI videos through prompts. That has opened the door for a new set of concerns around deepfakes and the usage of the voice and likenesses of not only famous actors, musicians and animated characters, but also any person.

Strauss said that when it comes to AI usage at game publishers like Take-Two, it’s not only important that the created content stands up to copyright laws but also protects people’s rights. “There are constraints,” he said.

But perhaps the bigger hurdle when it comes to utilizing more AI in game production is one at the center of what he believes is why the company continues to be successful.

“Let’s say there were no constraints [on AI]. Could we push a button tomorrow and create an equivalent to the ‘Grand Theft Auto’ marketing plan?” he said. “The answer is no. A, you can’t do that yet, and B, I am of the view that you wouldn’t end up with anything very good. You end up with something pretty derivative.”

Strauss said that is due to AI inherently being “backward looking” because its computation is tied to big data sets of old information.

Often, he said, what AI produces can feel new because it’s using predictive models, “and there are many, many, many things in life that are predictable based on data,” and there are plenty of things that data can solve for.

While that may help with solving something as complex as a cure for a disease or as simple as biology homework, Strauss said that when it comes to creating the sorts of multi-layered universes that Take-Two’s video games have become known for, it’s another story.

“Anything that involves backward-looking data compute, it’s really good for that and that applies to lots of things,” he said. “What we do at Take-Two, anything that isn’t attached to that, it’s going to be really, really bad at.”

Maintaining that creative edge has been critical for Take-Two, one of the last standing public video game developers after Microsoft acquired Activision Blizzard for $69 billion in 2023 and Electronic Arts announced last month that it will be acquired by the Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia, Silver Lake and Affinity Partners in an all-cash deal worth $55 billion.

“We aim to create franchises that are permanent,” Strauss said, noting that Take-Two has 11 franchises that have sold at least five million games upon release, in addition to more than 20 popular mobile games.

The company’s biggest franchise, “Grand Theft Auto,” is set to launch its next iteration in May 2026 and will likely set new sales records. Strauss said that the previous game in the series, “Grand Theft Auto V,” had $1 billion in sales in the first three days of its launch in 2013.

“The team’s creativity is extraordinary, and what [Take-Two subsidiary] Rockstar Games tries to do, and so far has done over and over again, is create something that approaches perfection,” he said. “There is no creativity that can exist by definition in any AI model, because it is data-driven,” Strauss added.

Technology

Jensen Huang says Nvidia’s AI chips are now being manufactured in Arizona

Published

6 hours ago

October 28, 2025

admin

Jensen Huang says Nvidia's AI chips are now being manufactured in Arizona

Jensen Huang, chief executive officer of Nvidia Corp., speaks to members of the media prior to the keynote address at the Nvidia AI summit in Washington, DC, US, on Tuesday, Oct. 28, 2025.

Kent Nishimura | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said at the company’s GTC conference on Tuesday that its Blackwell graphics processing units — the company’s fastest AI chips — are now in full production in Arizona.

Previously, Nvidia’s fastest GPUs were solely manufactured in Taiwan.

Huang said that President Donald Trump had asked him nine months ago to bring manufacturing back to U.S. shores.

“The first thing that President Trump asked me for is bring manufacturing back,” Huang said. “Bring manufacturing back because it’s necessary for national security. Bring manufacturing back because we want the jobs. We want that part of the economy.”

Earlier this month, Nvidia and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company announced that the first Blackwell wafers had been produced in a facility in Phoenix, Arizona. Wafers are the base material on which semiconductors are etched onto.

Nvidia said in a video that Blackwell-based systems will now be assembled in the U.S., too.

Much of what the company announced on Tuesday at its conference in Washington was for an audience of policymakers to convince them of the essential role that Nvidia plays, and that it would hurt U.S. interests to restrict its exports.

Huang said on Tuesday on a panel before his speech that Nvidia was holding its conference in Washington to allow Trump to attend, according to CNBC’s Kristina Partsinevelos, but the president is currently on a trip in Asia.

Trump said on Tuesday that he planned to meet with Huang on Wednesday, according to a Reuters report.

Demand for the company’s GPUs remains high, with 6 million Blackwell GPUs shipped in the last four quarters, Huang said Tuesday. Nvidia expects $500 billion in GPU sales between the Blackwell generation and next year’s Rubin chips combined, he added.

Cell networks ‘built on foreign technologies’

Additionally, Huang Tuesday said Nvidia would partner with Finland-based Nokia to build gear for telecommunications, an industry that he said was worth $3 trillion. As part of the partnership, Nvidia will take a $1 billion stake in Nokia.

Huang said that Nvidia is building chips for 5G and 6G base stations because it’s important to have wireless networks based on American technology.

“Thank you for helping the United States bring telecommunication technology back to America,” Huang said to Nokia CEO Justin Hotard during his speech.

The deal is an appeal to Western policymakers who have long had concerns about the amount of technology from China’s Huawei that is used for cellular networks around the world.

“Our fundamental communication fabric is built on foreign technologies,” Huang said. “That has to stop, and we have an opportunity to do that, especially during this fundamental platform shift.”

Nokia will use Nvidia chips in its future base stations, which are the pricey computers that distribute cellular signals. Huawei gear, the market leader, was effectively banned in the U.S. in 2018, leaving Nokia and Ericcson as the primary equipment vendors for U.S. networks.

Huang said that Nokia would be using a new product called Nvidia ARC that combines its Grace GPU, a Blackwell GPU and the company’s networking parts. Huang said that AI delivered over next-generation 6G networks could help operate robots and deliver more accurate weather forecasts.

Stakes are high

The location of the conference carries significance as Nvidia makes the case that it is a core part of the “U.S technology stack.”

Huang has argued that it would be better for American interests if Chinese AI developers got used to U.S. technology like Nvidia’s chips, rather than forcing the Chinese to develop their own AI chips.

“Nvidia is a proud American company building the U.S. AI infrastructure that will ensure our country leads the world in shaping the future of innovation,” Kari Briski, Nvidia’s vice president of generative AI software for enterprise, told reporters on a Monday call.

The stakes are high for Nvidia. U.S. export restrictions have already cost Nvidia billions of dollars in lost sales.

In April, the U.S. government informed Nvidia that its H20 chip, which was specially designed to comply with U.S. export controls, would require a license to ship to China. In May, Nvidia said it would have recorded about $10.5 billion in H20 sales over two quarters if the government hadn’t made the license requirement.

Then, in July, Huang visited Trump in Washington and again tried to persuade him and other administration officials that it is in U.S. interests to ship Nvidia chips to China. The Trump administration said it would approve license requests for the H20, but that Nvidia would have to pay the U.S. government 15% of China sales.

Still, Nvidia’s China business isn’t yet back on track.

Earlier this month, Huang said at a financial conference that Nvidia is currently “100% out of China” and has no market share there. While Nvidia said it would receive licenses for the H20 chip, the company hasn’t revealed a newer chip for China based on the company’s current generation of Blackwell GPUs.

Quantum computing

Many of Nvidia’s announcements on Tuesday were partnerships intended to signal that the company works with a variety of U.S. companies.

Among those announcements was NVQLink, a new way to connect quantum chips to Nvidia’s GPUs.

The U.S. having a lead in quantum computing is important to policymakers because military officials are worried that a foreign adversary may be able to spy on military communications if it gets a working quantum computer first.

Nvidia officials said in a Monday call that its chips can be used to correct errors that pop up during quantum computing and advance the technology. Nvidia said that 17 different quantum computing startups would produce hardware compatible with NVQLink.

“Researchers will be able to do more than just error correction,” Huang said Tuesday. “They will also be able to orchestrate quantum devices and AI supercomputers to run quantum GPU applications.”