CFP Bubble Watch: Who’s in, who’s out, who has work to do after Week 9
There’s only one month left in the regular season, and Saturday will be the last chance for teams to make an impression on the College Football Playoff selection committee before the first of six rankings is revealed Nov. 4.
The SEC continues to lead the way with more than a 95% chance to send at least four teams to the playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, followed by the Big Ten, with a 65% chance to have three teams. It gets interesting in the ACC and Big 12, though, where multiple contenders on the bubble are trying to make a case for a second bid as an at-large team.
After nine weeks, there’s still a lot of hope on the bubble.
Below, you’ll find one team in the spotlight for each of the Power 4 leagues and another identified as an enigma. We’ve also tiered schools into five groups. Teams with Would be in status are featured in this week’s top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee’s ranking would look like if it were released today. Teams listed as On the cusp are the true bubble teams and the first ones outside the bracket. A team with Work to do is passing the eye test (for the most part) and has a chance at winning its conference, which would mean a guaranteed spot in the playoff. A team that Would be out is playing in the shadows of the playoff — for now. And a team that is Out will have to wait until next year.
The 12-member selection committee doesn’t always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group’s tendencies, plus what each team has done to date.
Reminder: This will change week to week as each team builds — or busts — its résumé.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Spotlight: Texas. Nothing about two-loss Texas looks good right now, including its latest injury report. The Longhorns still have everything in front of them, though, including games that could change the playoff picture entirely. Quarterback Arch Manning suffered a concussion in the overtime win at Mississippi State, so his status is uncertain heading into the Vanderbilt game. Texas has no margin for error, but if it can somehow run the table, its résumé would rank among the best in the country with wins against Vanderbilt, Georgia and Texas A&M. The loss to Florida will be a sticking point for the committee, though it would be comparable to Alabama’s loss to Florida State and can be overcome by multiple wins against CFP Top 25 opponents. The Longhorns have so far sidestepped complete disaster with back-to-back overtime road wins against Kentucky and Mississippi State — teams that are a combined 6-9. Despite the team’s struggles, the Texas defense is No. 10 in the country, holding opponents to 14.63 points per game.
Enigma: Oklahoma. The Sooners have the second-most difficult schedule remaining in the country, which can either impress the committee enough for them to land a spot as a two-loss team if they win — or knock out OU. If Oklahoma somehow wins back-to-back road games at Tennessee and Alabama, the Sooners would be catching the committee’s attention at the right time. Oklahoma’s biggest problem is its loss to rival Texas because if the Sooners were to run the table and finish 10-2, the selection committee’s protocol includes head-to-head results as one of its tiebreakers. It’s possible both teams could get in, but if the committee had to choose, it would be difficult not to select Texas because of the Oct. 11 win. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, if OU and Texas ran the table, the rivals would both have at least a 95% chance to reach the playoff.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt
On the cusp: None
Work to do: Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas
Would be out: LSU
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, South Carolina
Big Ten
Spotlight: USC. Both of USC’s losses were on the road to respectable opponents in Illinois and Notre Dame, but the Trojans still have another big opportunity for a road win against a ranked opponent Nov. 22 at Oregon. It’s also possible that 6-2 Iowa shows up in the committee’s top 25 at some point. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, if USC ran the table — and independent of other results — the Trojans would have an 82.9% chance to reach the playoff. According to ESPN Analytics, USC has at least a 50% chance to win each of its remaining games — except for Nov. 22 at Oregon, which the Ducks have a 70.8% chance to win. The Big Ten is top-heavy, with Ohio State, Indiana and Oregon leading the way, but there is still a month for some second-tier teams to make a push.
Enigma: Washington. The Huskies did what USC couldn’t and beat Illinois, though they had home-field advantage, which is significant, considering the travel involved. That’s where they’d have another edge against Oregon on Nov. 29, when the Huskies host the Ducks. Washington is favored to win each of its remaining games — except for the regular-season finale against Oregon, which the Ducks have a 75.3% chance to win, according to ESPN Analytics. Washington doesn’t have any embarrassing losses (vs. Ohio State and at Michigan), so it would at least enter the conversation with a 10-2 record.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
On the cusp: None
Work to do: Iowa, Michigan, USC, Washington
Would be out: Illinois, Maryland, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern
Out: Michigan State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin
ACC
Spotlight: Virginia. There is a 30% chance the ACC championship game now features Virginia and Georgia Tech, according to ESPN Analytics. The Cavaliers have won three overtime games in the past four, including two on the road against Louisville and UNC, and a double-overtime home win against Florida State that no longer looks as impressive as it did that Friday night. Still, UVA has put itself in position to compete for a playoff spot. It has a tricky cross-country trip Saturday to Cal, but won’t face a ranked opponent the rest of the season. If Virginia wins the ACC, it’s a lock for the playoff. If it finishes as a two-loss runner-up, the Sept. 6 loss at NC State and lack of statement wins to compensate for it will be an issue for some committee members. The Cavaliers’ best win would be at Louisville, which should be a CFP Top 25 team, but it didn’t help that Pitt just hammered NC State 53-34.
Enigma: Louisville. The Cardinals are going to be haunted all season by their three-point overtime loss to Virginia, but the 24-21 win at Miami on Oct. 17 was the best possible rebound they could ask for. The rest of Louisville’s schedule isn’t easy — most difficult trip Nov. 22 at SMU — but the Cardinals still have a 20.8% chance to reach the ACC championship game and a 12.5% chance to reach the playoff. ESPN Analytics gives Louisville less than a 50% chance to win at SMU, which affects its chances.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Georgia Tech, Miami
On the cusp: Virginia
Work to do: Louisville
Would be out: Cal, Duke, Pitt, SMU, Wake Forest
Out: Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech
Big 12
Spotlight: Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are the first team out in this week’s top 12 projection, having dropped out after their Oct. 18 loss at Arizona State. That loss took another small hit in Week 9 after ASU suffered its third defeat of the season. The Red Raiders are still on track, though, to meet BYU in the Big 12 title game, as that’s the most likely matchup (34%), according to ESPN Analytics. Texas Tech also hosts BYU on Nov. 8 in what will be arguably the Big 12’s biggest game of the regular season. If BYU can stay undefeated — but loses in the Big 12 championship game — the conference would have its best chance at getting two teams in the CFP because the winner would be guaranteed a spot, and one-loss BYU would have an excellent case to join it. If Texas Tech beats BYU and finishes as a two-loss Big 12 runner-up to the Cougars, it would also have a strong case thanks to a regular-season win against the Big 12 champion. It would likely be compared with a two-loss ACC runner-up, though, and that’s where things could get interesting. The Red Raiders’ best wins would be at Utah, at Houston and against BYU. How the conference title games unfold would also play a role in the committee’s decision.
Enigma: Cincinnati. The Bearcats are undefeated in conference play, their lone loss coming in the season opener against Nebraska. They have the third-best chance (34.2%) to reach the Big 12 title game behind BYU and Texas Tech. The committee will learn more about Cincy’s validity as a playoff contender Saturday at Utah, and the Bearcats host BYU on Nov. 22. Cincinnati doesn’t face Texas Tech during the regular season. According to ESPN Analytics, the Bearcats have less than a 50% chance to win three of their next four games. They’re favored to beat only Arizona on Nov. 15, but a win at Utah on Saturday would go a long way in further pushing Cincy into contention.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: BYU
On the cusp: Texas Tech
Work to do: Cincinnati, Houston
Would be out: Arizona, Arizona State, Iowa State, TCU, UCF, Utah
Out: Baylor, Colorado, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, West Virginia
Independent
On the cusp: Notre Dame. The Irish had a bye week after a five-game winning streak, but they will seek to resume their slow climb back into playoff contention at unranked Boston College on Saturday. They need to run the table — and look like a playoff team — to move into a more secure spot. At No. 12 in this week’s projection, Notre Dame would be excluded from the playoff to make room for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion, which this week is projected to be Memphis from the American. According to ESPN Analytics, Notre Dame still has the best chance in the country to win out (67.1%).
Group of 5
Spotlight: Memphis. The American still has the best chance among Group of 5 conferences to send its champion to the playoff, but the separation within the league is thin. Memphis earned the edge this week because of its head-to-head win against USF on Saturday. With that loss, the Bulls’ chances of reaching the playoff dropped 18%, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Memphis still has to face Tulane and undefeated Navy this month, but ESPN Analytics gives Memphis more than a 66% chance to win each of those games.
Enigma: Navy. The Midshipmen are one of six undefeated teams remaining in the FBS, but they have played the worst schedule in the country at No. 136. Their biggest challenge to date is Saturday at North Texas, which is another strong contender for a playoff spot, with the third-best chance (18%) to reach the CFP, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. This month will make or break Navy’s playoff hopes, as the Midshipmen have the 19th-toughest remaining schedule in the country. It starts with back-to-back road trips to North Texas and Notre Dame, followed by a home game against USF, and ends with a Thursday trip to Memphis. Last year, Navy also started the season 6-0 but crashed back to reality with a 51-14 loss to Notre Dame.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Memphis
Work to do: Boise State, James Madison, Memphis, Navy, North Texas, San Diego State, Tulane, UNLV, USF
Bracket
Based on our weekly projection, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Alabama (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas A&M
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 Georgia Tech at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 BYU (Big 12 champ) at No. 7 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 9 Vanderbilt at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 Georgia Tech/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Alabama
No. 10 BYU/No. 7 Miami winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Vanderbilt/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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Adam Rittenberg
Maryland coach Mike Locksley said he’s not coaching for his job despite the team’s five consecutive Big Ten losses and continued struggles in league games and late in the season.
Locksley told reporters Tuesday that he deserves to keep his job, saying, “I’m the head coach at the University of Maryland.” After a 4-0 start, Maryland sits at 4-5 entering Saturday’s game at Illinois.
The Terrapins are just 17-45 in Big Ten games under Locksley, who has won 18 consecutive nonleague games at the school. Locksley is 37-46 overall at Maryland and is under contract through the 2027 season. His buyout if fired this year would be $13.4 million.
First-year athletic director Jim Smith, when asked by The Baltimore Sun whether Locksley would return in 2026, told the newspaper that his status would be determined at the end of the year. Smith did not hire Locksley and took over as athletic director in May after serving as Atlanta Braves senior vice president of business strategy.
After Illinois, Maryland finishes the regular season against No. 21 Michigan and Michigan State.
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Andrea Adelson
North Carolina coach Bill Belichick said he is focused on Wake Forest, after questions about potential interest in the vacant New York Giants head coaching job.
During his Tuesday news conference in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, Belichick was asked what his message was to the team given the speculation about the newly opened job.
“Getting ready for Wake Forest, that’s all I got this week,” Belichick said.
As a follow-up, Belichick was asked whether players or recruits have inquired about the speculation that began after the Giants fired Brian Daboll on Monday.
“I’ve been asked about it from time to time,” Belichick said. “Look I’ve been down this road before. I’m focused on Wake Forest, that’s it. That’s my commitment to this team. This week it’s Wake Forest, next week it’s that opponent and so forth. I’m here to do the best for this team.”
Belichick is in his first season with North Carolina, which has won two straight games to bring its record to 4-5. Before coming to college coaching, Belichick spent his entire career in the NFL — winning six Super Bowls with the New England Patriots.
But he won two Super Bowls with the New York Giants as a defensive coordinator under Bill Parcells in the 1986 and 1990 seasons. Belichick often references Giants Hall of Fame linebacker Lawrence Taylor, who went to North Carolina and attended the season opener against TCU in Chapel Hill.
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Dan Wetzel
Emmanuel Clase had made over $12 million as a relief pitcher and was set to pocket an additional $6.4 million next season from the Cleveland Guardians. At just 27 years old with the ability to throw a 95 mph cutter, there were likely many more millions to come.
You’d think that would be enough to avoid possibly throwing it all away in a sports betting scandal.
Yet federal prosecutors allege that Clase, over the past few years, routinely conspired with a couple of as-yet-unnamed gamblers to throw certain pitches in certain ways so they could successfully bet on the outcome — below a specific speed, for example. (Yes, over/under 97.95 mph is a bet that is offered.)
Prosecutors said the gamblers involved won at least $400,000 in bets involving Clase. A portion, sometimes as little as $2,000 (fractional when compared with his salary), was allegedly kicked back to Clase.
That included a May 28, 2025, game against the Los Angeles Dodgers, where, a federal indictment states, two bettors wagered $4,000 that his first pitch would be either a ball or hit the batter.
Clase apparently did his part, throwing it low and out of the strike zone. Dodgers outfielder Andy Pages swung anyway, though, missing the ball for a strike.
The bet was a bust.
Clase went on to retire the side in order, securing a save in the Cleveland victory. It was of little help to the bettors, though, one of whom sent Clase a “.gif image of a man hanging himself with toilet paper,” per the indictment. Clase texted back “a sad puppy dog face.”
We can only imagine the emojis Clase has been using since his arrest on Sunday that didn’t cost him just the rest of that massive contract and a potential lifetime ban from Major League Baseball, but possibly up to 20 years in prison.
Everything potentially lost for so little.
Clase and Guardians starter Luis Ortiz — also indicted Sunday for similar alleged “pitch-rigging” activities — are innocent until proven guilty, of course, but if you are looking for a near sure thing to count on, it’s the feds. They rarely lose.
And that might be the only thing that can uphold the integrity of sports in America. At least we can hope.
Recent weeks have seen a parade of sports wagering scandals, schemes and indictments. Pro basketball. College basketball. Now MLB.
The accused range from the rich and famous to the broke and obscure, from young men to old heads. Trying to design a preventative, educational system seems impossible. Who can even explain the individual motivations or circumstances? Some needed money; others didn’t. Some were naive; others were worldly.
There is little in common between, say, a respected, 49-year-old Hall of Famer turned NBA coach such as Chauncey Billups, three players on the 4-27 University of New Orleans basketball team and a Dominican relief pitcher in the prime of his lucrative MLB career.
The way to stop this stuff is to stop it from starting. The fear of getting caught — and the fact that the federal government is catching people on a regular basis — might be the only thing that can scare everyone (or most everyone) straight.
Common sense says federal prosecutors won’t find everything. They are trying, though, with offices out of New York and Philadelphia busting people making small wagers on random pitches, the playing rotation of late-season NBA games and even hoops point spreads out of the obscure Southland Conference.
No one should think they are safe.
Gamblers, of course, have been fixing sports about as long as sports have existed. Baseball itself has seen a World Series compromised and its all-time hit king barred from Hall of Fame enshrinement due to this stuff.
A pitch in the Cleveland dirt somehow seems quaint.
Yet never before has sports wagering been so front of mind in America. Not only is it legal in 38 states and the District of Columbia, but teams, leagues, media outlets and everyone else are cashing in on the business. It’s on your TV. It’s on your phone. It’s in your face whether you gamble or not. Promo Code: Everywhere.
That has likely led to more temptation. Some of the college players have bet on themselves or participated in unsophisticated plots — one New Orleans player was allegedly overheard at a timeout telling two others to stop scoring to prevent their team from accidentally covering (the spread was 23; they lost by 25).
The good news? The ease of betting has also certainly led to easier detection, at least if bets are made through legal sources. The integrity monitoring systems are excellent.
There is a movement to ban individual prop bets, such as a player’s rebounding totals or the speed of a pitch. Those are easiest to manipulate, after all. MLB announced Monday that prominent U.S. sportsbooks are placing a $200 betting limit on baseball wagers centered on individual pitches and prohibiting such bets from being included in parlays in an attempt to decrease the incentive for manipulation. These are good ideas.
Yet sports wagering comes in many forms — legal, yes, but also through illegal books or offshore accounts. Then there is daily fantasy and the prediction market, where there is a near lack of government oversight.
This feels like whack-a-mole. Legislation is always a reaction, not a prevention.
In the end, the fear of being busted is about the only universal deterrent. Corruption is an individual decision, and prison is a powerful disincentive. No one wants to be the next guy sending sad puppy dog faces.
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