The 4 teams currently playing like national champions — and why
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Bill Connelly
Almost every football coach in the known universe professes a desire for perfect balance, the desire to be able to run and pass in equal proportion and with equal quality.
Week 9 of the college football season created balance of a different sort: It gave us a particularly interesting mix of lovely, close games and huge statement performances. (It also gave us a few potentially season-altering quarterback injuries, but I guess that comes with the territory.)
The SEC alone gave us four one-score finishes, five fourth-quarter comebacks and a Hail Mary completed at about the 1-inch line. It also gave us Texas A&M’s resounding second-half surge against LSU that both erased the aura of Tiger Stadium at night and put LSU’s Brian Kelly on the hottest of hot seats. (Editor’s note: Kelly has been fired, LSU announced Sunday night.)
The Big Ten gave us tense, down-to-the-wire affairs with Rutgers-Purdue and Nebraska-Northwestern and blowouts with Indiana over UCLA and Iowa over Minnesota. The ACC gave us a pair of overtime thrillers, a last-second field goal stunner and two top-10 teams winning by a combined 60. The Group of 5 gave us a playoff plot twist (Memphis 34, USF 31), four overtime epics and a 600-yard passing game, and a 37-0 run from North Texas. The smaller-school ranks gave us a (nearly) walk-off pick-six, a great Anchor-Bone Classic and an FCS No. 1-versus-No. 2 game decided by 31 points and 344 yards.
I mentioned in last week’s preview that Week 9 tends to declutter things for us, shutting down some upstart stories and laying out some pretty clear stakes as we head into November. A lot of upstart stories continue, but even in a sea of parity talk and close games, one thing Week 9 did do is clarify which teams are playing the most like national champs at the moment. Let’s start there.
The four teams playing like potential national champions
Even after nine weeks, the polls can sometimes be misleading. At this point in 2022, 8-0 Tennessee was No. 1 in the country, and 8-0 Clemson was No. 4; the Volunteers and Tigers went a combined 6-5 the rest of the way. Hell, at this point in 2021, Michigan State was 8-0 and No. 3 — the Spartans are 20-28 since. November usually brings us plenty of unexpected twists, but I can say that, unlike Tennessee, Clemson or Michigan State, the top four teams in the current AP poll — Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M and Alabama — are the ones looking most like national title teams at the moment.
A week ago in this space, I wrote that I was pretty sure Ohio State was “comfortably the best team in the country at the moment.” I certainly don’t think any less of the Buckeyes after their Week 9 bye, but Saturday made me rethink the premise a bit. After all, only twice has a team beaten a conference opponent by 50-plus points this season, and it was Indiana both times.
The top of my SP+ rankings tend to be reserved for teams that repeatedly show boundless upside. Over the past 20 seasons, the only programs to finish No. 1 in SP+ are Alabama (10 times), Ohio State (three times), Georgia (twice), Florida, Florida State, LSU, Michigan and Texas. Blue bloods, all. But following IU’s 56-6 humiliation of UCLA, the Hoosiers jumped Ohio State into the top spot. Until otherwise noted, the center of the college football universe is Bloomington, Indiana.
I doubt UCLA would disagree. The Bruins came to Bloomington having won three games in a row with a disruptive defense and an improved run game. They created only one tackle for loss against the Hoosiers, and it came when IU was already up 42-3. (It also didn’t stop the Hoosiers from making it 49-3 two plays later.) UCLA running backs, meanwhile, averaged just 3.3 yards per carry, and quarterback Nico Iamaleava took three sacks and threw two picks. Indiana quarterback (and Heisman betting favorite) Fernando Mendoza completed only 15 passes for 168 yards, and it didn’t matter in the slightest.
The 2024 Hoosiers were, per SP+, the second-best team in the history of the program. This team is quite a bit better than that one. I cannot wait to see how this story unfolds in the coming weeks (and months).
Remaining regular-season schedule: at Maryland (SP+ projection: IU by 16.1), at Penn State (IU by 8.5), Wisconsin (IU by 34.8), at Purdue (IU by 28.1).
We’re just waiting on the big plays. Ohio State currently ranks ninth nationally in points scored per drive and first in offensive success rate; the defense ranks first in points allowed per drive and has forced more turnovers (nine) than it has given up gains of 25-plus yards (six). The Buckeyes given up only 4.0 yards per dropback (first) and have given up touchdowns on only two of 12 opponent red zone trips (16.7%, also first).
Because of Texas’ generally mediocre showing in 2025, the Buckeyes’ season-opening win over the Longhorns doesn’t carry as much weight as expected, but they played two other SP+ top-30 opponents on the road (Washington and Illinois) and beat them by a combined 58-22.
They’ve done that while barely even trying to get aggressive on offense. Julian Sayin‘s 80% completion rate leads the nation (no one else is even above 75%), but despite having two otherworldly deep threats in Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate, the Buckeyes’ average pass is just 7.6 yards downfield (105th), and only 12.9% of completions have gained 20-plus yards (109th). It feels as if they aren’t even showing us half the playbook, and they’ve reached November having barely broken a sweat. Indiana shows us it’s one of the best teams in the nation every week; Ohio State just drops us reminders of what it will probably do when the games really matter.
Remaining regular-season schedule: Penn State (SP+ projection: OSU by 13.2), at Purdue (OSU by 27.7), UCLA (OSU by 32.9), Rutgers (OSU by 27.7), at Michigan (OSU by 8.5).
In Friday’s preview, I wrote, “If the Aggies overcome this team and this environment, they are legit SEC, and potentially national title, contenders.” I don’t know about you, but I think going on a 35-0 run over about 24 minutes in the second half and turning a nip-and-tuck game into a 24-point laugher counts as “overcoming” LSU and Tiger Stadium.
In what was both a referendum on Texas A&M’s title chops and Brian Kelly’s status as LSU’s head coach, A&M suffered a couple of early turnovers and wobbled in the second quarter, falling behind 18-14 at halftime. But for the second straight season Mike Elko’s Aggies made an example out of LSU and Kelly, Elko’s former Notre Dame boss. Last season, they went on a 31-6 second-half run in a 38-23 win that served as a statement of what A&M might be capable of under Elko. The run also solidified quarterback Marcel Reed‘s place in the starting lineup (original 2024 starter Conner Weigman transferred to Houston, where he has helped to lead the Cougars to a 7-1 start).
This year’s second-half surge was an even more resounding statement. Aggies defenders sacked poor Garrett Nussmeier five times (three after halftime), then sacked backup Michael Van Buren Jr. twice in six pass attempts. Reed was a little too aggressive at times but needed only 12 completions to gain 202 passing yards — four receivers had at least one 20-yard catch — while rushing 13 times for 108 yards. Mario Craver and KC Concepcion are fast and terrifying in space (Concepcion’s punt return score hastened LSU’s second-half collapse), and even backups such as redshirt freshman Ashton Bethel-Roman are capable of absolute nonsense like this:
ABSOLUTELY SNAGGED IT pic.twitter.com/isdPEh2pjw
— Texas A&M Football (@AggieFootball) October 26, 2025
If you’re still slow to adopt the Aggies as potential title contenders, you could certainly point to their inconsistency. The defense has given up more than 40 points twice and almost got them into trouble at Arkansas a week ago, and the offense misfired in a near-loss to Auburn. You could also simply note that after last year’s “statement win” against LSU, A&M lost four of its next five games. Proving yourself in a big game only offers you bigger games down the line, and we don’t know how the Aggies will handle that. They do, after all, still have to play at Missouri and Texas. But once you’ve handled Tiger Stadium at night the way A&M did Saturday, I give you all the benefit of the doubt.
Remaining regular-season schedule: at Missouri (SP+ projection: A&M by 0.8), South Carolina (A&M by 18.2), Samford (A&M by 69.6), at Texas (A&M by 0.7).
The 2023 Washington vibes continue. After winning four straight games against ranked opponents — including three that had the ball with a chance to take the lead in the fourth quarter (and two that, per SP+, generated the game’s superior stats), Bama seemingly got a break against a 3-4 South Carolina team. But even with an incredible — and incredibly lucky — first-half pick-six, the Tide found themselves trailing 22-14 in Columbia with less than three minutes left. Then they magicked their way right out of a jam. Ty Simpson found Germie Bernard for a touchdown and Josh Cuevas for a 2-point conversion, then Deontae Lawson ripped the ball out of Gamecocks quarterback LaNorris Sellers‘ hands two plays later, and Tim Keenan III recovered it. Bernard raced down the sideline for a touchdown with 34 seconds left, and that was that. Crisis averted.
Barely beating a two-touchdown underdog is a weird way of getting onto a “playing like a national champion” list, but I’m struggling to avoid feelings of inevitability here, both because of how many times in a row the Crimson Tide have made the exact plays they needed to make in the fourth quarter and because Kalen DeBoer’s Washington Huskies basically did the exact same thing two years ago on the way to the national title game. They won eight one-score games during a 14-game winning streak, getting just the right combination of quarterback play, turnovers and special teams contributions to survive and advance. It’s hard to sustain that from year to year, but we’ve seen teams ride runs like this to rings throughout college football history.
Granted, DeBoer’s Huskies lost in 2023’s title game, but they lost to a Michigan team that ranked 12 spots higher than them on 247 Sports’ Talent Composite. The only team that ranks higher than Alabama in this year’s Talent Composite is Georgia, a team the Tide have already beaten. This team knows how to see games out and won’t face many matchup disadvantages in any hypothetical CFP matchup. That’s a pretty scary combination, isn’t it?
Remaining regular-season schedule: LSU (SP+ projection: Bama by 9.0), Oklahoma (Bama by 2.0), Eastern Illinois (Bama by 58.1), at Auburn (Bama by 5.6).
The hottest teams in the country (besides the contenders)
On Saturday, Kansas State reminded us that teams aren’t the same entity all season and that Lou Holtz’s old “You coach a different team every week” adage forever rings true. After a brutally disappointing 2-4 start, with the defeats by only 13 combined points, the Wildcats played well in a win over TCU, then overachieved against SP+ by 30 points in a 42-17 demolition of Kansas. The Wildcats haven’t lost to the Jayhawks since 2008, and more importantly, they’re back to .500. At 3-2 in conference play, they’re technically not out of the Big 12 title race just yet (though their odds obviously aren’t great).
Looking at two factors — recent wins and recent overachievement against projections — Kansas State is one of the hotter, more fast-rising teams in the country. Here are a few other teams whose recent improvement could seriously affect how the rest of the season plays out (or at least redefine how their fans look back on 2025).
I warned you about the Aztecs in Friday’s preview, but I still didn’t expect them to cruise to such an easy 23-0 win at Fresno State on Saturday. They’ve won their last three games by a combined 112-34, and per SP+ they’re projected favorites in every remaining game, including a Week 12 visit from Boise State. If the contenders in the American Conference all bloody each other up, and SDSU ends up a 12-1 Mountain West champion, the Aztecs might end up with a playoff case.
In Weeks 3 and 4, Wazzu lost to North Texas and Washington by a combined 118-34. The defense was a disaster, and the offense wasn’t progressing. But since then, the Cougars have beaten two Group of 5 opponents (Colorado State and Toledo) by a combined 48-10 and lost to two 7-1 power-conference opponents, on the road, by only five combined points. They actually came closer to beating Ole Miss than Oklahoma did. The offense is coming along, and the defense is dynamite. They should finish at least 7-5.
Kennesaw State face-planted in its FBS debut season in 2024, famously upsetting Liberty but otherwise going 1-10 and firing Brian Bohannon, the only coach in program history. I loved their replacement hire — Jerry Mack did excellent things at NC Central a few years ago — but I didn’t expect big things so quickly from him here. Whoops. The Owls nearly beat Wake Forest to start the season, and since a blowout loss to Indiana they’ve won five straight, including the past two by a combined 80-33. They’re right in the middle of the Conference USA race.
Usually, when a team decides to push a true freshman quarterback into the starting lineup, it’s an announcement that they’re punting on the season. But Pitt has been reborn since handing the reins to Mason Heintschel. Heintschel has thrown for at least 321 yards in three of four starts, the Panthers have scored at least 30 points in all four, and they’ve jumped from a disappointing 2-2 to a massively intriguing 6-2. The home stretch is pretty brutal — after this coming week’s trip to Stanford, they finish with Notre Dame, at Georgia Tech and Miami. But with this level of play, they’ll either force their way into the ACC title conversation or potentially take down an ACC favorite late in the season.
After becoming the only team to lose to Indiana by one score, Iowa enjoyed one hell of an October, outlasting interim-coached Penn State and walloping rivals Wisconsin and Minnesota by a combined 78-3. They head into November ranked 17th in SP+, and Kinnick Stadium will be an absolute cauldron when Oregon visits Nov. 8.
43-0! The Utes led Colorado 43-0 at halftime Saturday night! And it could have been even worse. Total first-half yardage: Utah 398, Colorado minus-18. The Buffaloes were lucky Kyle Whittingham decided to take it easy in the second half and settled for a 53-7 win.
We have to talk about what NDSU is doing to the rest of FCS this season. The Bison were projected first in SP+, but they’ve still managed to overachieve against projections by an average of 8.6 points. And they basically pulled a Utah against their biggest rival Saturday night, beating South Dakota State by a generous 38-7 score. SDSU had to start its backup quarterback, but he wasn’t going to do anything to stop NDSU from gaining 354 yards in the first half.
NDSU is now at least 10 points ahead of every other team in FCS, per SP+. There are a host of delightful upstart stories in FCS this season – recent Division II convert (and Army beater) Tarleton State is second in SP+, while Harvard is third, Tennessee Tech is fourth and Lehigh is 10th – but it will take a mammoth upset to prevent the playoff from being yet another long Bison coronation.
Others: Notre Dame, Marshall, Hawai’i, Southern Miss, Central Michigan, Cincinnati.
This week in SP+
The SP+ rankings have been updated for the week. Let’s take a look at the teams that saw the biggest change in their overall ratings. (Note: We’re looking at ratings, not rankings.)
Moving up
Here are the 10 teams that saw their ratings rise the most this week:
Kennesaw State: up 3.7 adjusted points per game (ranking rose from 95th to 82nd)
Wyoming: up 2.9 points (from 99th to 92nd)
Washington State: up 2.9 points (from 84th to 72nd)
Utah: up 2.8 points (from 14th to seventh)
Kansas State: up 2.8 points (from 53rd to 36th)
Central Michigan: up 2.7 points (from 114th to 103rd)
San Diego State: up 2.6 points (from 59th to 46th)
Indiana: up 2.5 points (from third to first)
Northern Illinois: up 2.4 points (from 127th to 123rd)
Iowa: up 2.3 points (from 22nd to 17th)
We covered most of these teams above.
Moving down
Here are the 10 teams whose ratings fell the most:
Toledo: down 4.5 points (from 54th to 64th)
Minnesota: down 4.0 points (from 49th to 58th)
Colorado: down 3.5 points (from 63rd to 68th)
Kansas: down 3.4 points (from 41st to 53rd)
LSU: down 3.3 points (from 19th to 26th)
Stanford: down 3.0 points (from 101st to 110th)
Kentucky: down 3.0 points (from 60th to 66th)
UCLA: down 2.9 points (from 68th to 78th)
Fresno State: down 2.7 points (from 80th to 93rd)
UConn: down 2.5 points (from 56th to 59th)
Minnesota has completely confounded SP+ this season. The Gophers have overachieved against SP+ projections by at least 18 points twice (including a Week 8 thumping of Nebraska) and have underachieved by at least 16 points three times. That, of course, includes Week 9’s rivalry game no-show against Iowa. The Gophers have either risen or fallen by at least nine spots in the rankings six times in eight games. They are quite the moving target, and that isn’t a compliment.
Who won the Heisman this week?
I am again awarding the Heisman every single week of the season and doling out weekly points, F1-style (in this case, 10 points for first place, 9 for second and so on). How will this Heisman race play out, and how different will the result be from the actual Heisman voting?
Here is this week’s Heisman top 10:
1. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (24-for-44 passing for 315 yards and a touchdown, plus 58 non-sack rushing yards against Oklahoma).
2. Haynes King, Georgia Tech (25-for-31 passing for 304 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 96 non-sack rushing yards and 2 TDs against Syracuse).
3. Drew Mestemaker, North Texas (37-for-49 passing for 608 yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT, plus 18 non-sack rushing yards against Charlotte).
4. Isaac Brown, Louisville (14 carries for 205 yards and a touchdown against Boston College).
5. Bear Bachmeier, BYU (22-for-35 passing for 307 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 60 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Iowa State).
6. Jacob Rodriguez, Texas Tech (10 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 forced fumble and a 69-yard fumble return TD against Oklahoma State).
7. Joey Aguilar, Tennessee (20-for-26 passing for 396 yards and 3 touchdowns against Kentucky).
8. Anthony Hill Jr., Texas (10 tackles, 3.5 TFLs, 2.5 sacks, 1 forced fumble and 4 QB hurries against Mississippi State).
9. Demond Williams Jr., Washington (26-for-33 passing for 280 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 66 non-sack rushing yards against Illinois).
10. KJ Duff, Rutgers (6 catches for 241 yards and a touchdown against Purdue).
Welcome back, Trinidad Chambliss! A week after a late-game collapse at Georgia knocked Chambliss and Ole Miss from the ranks of the unbeaten, the Rebels had to face an even better defense (Oklahoma) in an even more hostile environment. Trailing into the fourth quarter, Chambliss led a 75-yard touchdown drive and a clock-eating field goal drive to seal a 34-26 win. The Sooners were giving up a paltry 213 yards per game this season; the Rebels gained 431.
Haynes King, meanwhile, generated even more yards than Chambliss — albeit against a far weaker opponent — and holy moly Drew Mestemaker. Charlotte’s defense is awful, but no other team has gained 750 total yards on the 49ers this season.
Honorable mention:
• KC Concepcion, Texas A&M (three catches for 45 yards and a touchdown, plus a 79-yard punt return TD against LSU).
• Justice Haynes, Michigan (26 carries for 152 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 19 receiving yards against Michigan State).
• Mason Heintschel, Pitt (28-for-48 passing for 423 yards and 3 touchdowns against NC State).
• Quinton Jackson, Rice (21 carries for 168 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 80 receiving yards and a TD against UConn).
• Javen Nicholas, Charlotte (7 catches for 187 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 20 receiving yards against North Texas).
• Eddie Walls III, Houston (5 tackles, 3 sacks, a pass breakup and a hurry against Arizona State).
• Terry Webb, SMU (8 tackles, 2.5 TFLs, 2 sacks, a forced fumble, a pass breakup and a hurry against Wake Forest).
• Conner Weigman, Houston (17-for-22 passing for 201 yards and a touchdown, plus 119 non-sack rushing yards and 2 TDs against Arizona State).
Through nine weeks, here are your points leaders:
1. Ty Simpson, Alabama (29 points)
2. Taylen Green, Arkansas (27)
3. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (25)
4. Demond Williams Jr., Washington (21)
5T. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (19)
5T. Gunner Stockton, Georgia (19)
7T. Luke Altmyer, Illinois (16)
7T. Julian Sayin, Ohio State (16)
9. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt (14)
10. Jayden Maiava, USC (12)
I’m not going to lie: This remains a very strange Heisman race. At this point last season, the top two players in our points race had 41 (Ashton Jeanty) and 40 points (Cam Ward), respectively. Travis Hunter, priming for a surge, was at 26. This season no one has topped 30, and the second-highest point total has gone to Green, the quarterback of a 2-6 team. The betting favorite, Mendoza, threw for all of 168 yards Saturday but remained the betting favorite because No. 2 pick (and points leader) Simpson nearly lost to South Carolina. I still think we’re going to see a surge — in both performance and sentiment — from someone, but damned if I know who. My best guess at this point: Julian Sayin. We’ll see.
My 20 favorite games of the weekend
1. No. 10 Vanderbilt 17, No. 15 Missouri 10. Mizzou blew a chance to seize this game with a pair of third-quarter red zone failures — or, if you prefer, Vandy’s defense seized the initiative with a pair of great defensive stands — and quarterback Beau Pribula dislocated his ankle in the process. But freshman Matt Zollers led the Tigers to one tying score in the fourth quarter and came within centimeters of a second.
1:36
Missouri’s Hail Mary no good as Vanderbilt hangs on
Freshman quarterback Matt Zollers throws a Hail Mary to Kevin Coleman Jr. but the completion comes up short of the goal line.
2. Wake Forest 13, SMU 12. Wake Forest: your “try, try again” team of the week. The Demon Deacons lost two fumbles inside the SMU 10 in the fourth quarter, but Kamrean Johnson made an unreal, 25-yard catch from backup quarterback Deshawn Purdie with four seconds left, and Connor Calvert‘s 50-yard game-winner traveled about 50.1 yards.
3. FCS: Georgetown 31, Bucknell 24. Three weeks ago, Georgetown made this list with a winning Hail Mary. The Hoyas are back with something almost as dramatic: a walk-off (almost) pick-six. Having overcome a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit, Bucknell was driving for a potential winning field goal attempt in the closing seconds, but Naiteitei Mose stepped in front of a Christopher Dietrich pass and rumbled 65 yards for the win.
Mose returns an interception for a GU TOUCHDOWN!!#HoyaSaxa #HoyaBold #DefendTheDistrict #SISU #PartnerWithSquadrahttps://t.co/CLGmxgiUPv pic.twitter.com/wm7DTPaZVf
— Georgetown Football (@HoyasFB) October 25, 2025
4. Memphis 34, No. 18 USF 31. USF just couldn’t quite knock out Memphis. The Bulls led by 14 heading into the fourth quarter, but three length-of-the-field drives and 17 points gave the Tigers the lead, and after an iffy snap, Nico Gramatica‘s 52-yard field goal attempt at the buzzer sailed wide.
5. No. 4 Alabama 29, South Carolina 22. It’s definitely more fun when the underdog gets the turnover breaks, but that’s not the way either Alabama’s or South Carolina’s story is playing out in 2025.
6. Rutgers 27, Purdue 24. You get bonus points on this list when you lose a game in a way I’ve never seen. I’d say “catching your own pass off of a deflection, then losing a fumble to set up the winning field goal” is worth quite a few points.
Scarlet Knights recover the fumble ‼️ @RFootball
📺: @BigTenNetwork pic.twitter.com/dbfUX2rqjF
— Big Ten Football (@B1Gfootball) October 25, 2025
7. Virginia Tech 42, Cal 34 (2OT). There’s something so heartening about seeing a fan base rally around a team in a lost season. At 2-5, Virginia Tech didn’t have a ton to play for Friday night against Cal, and the Hokies looked like a 2-5 team in losing a late lead. But from “Enter Sandman” through the second OT, the Lane Stadium crowd remained engaged, and Takye Heath‘s 7-yard touchdown catch and an overtime stop gave the Hokies the win.
8. Division III: St. Olaf 44, St. Scholastica 41. This one was similar to Georgetown-Bucknell in that one team was driving for a late win and then suddenly lost. St. Scholastica took a 38-24 lead late in the third quarter in Northfield, Minnesota, but St. Olaf tied it at 41-41 on a Rob Htoo touchdown in the fourth. CSS embarked on a nearly seven-minute drive to take the lead, but Will Harris recovered a fumbled handoff, and Ethan Hess knocked in a 29-yard field goal at the buzzer to give the Oles (yes, Oles) a surprise win.
9. No. 16 Virginia 17, North Carolina 16 (OT). A scoreless, four-turnover second half gave this one quite a sloppy vibe, but Virginia again made the plays when it counted. After failing to score a touchdown over the final 36 minutes of regulation, both teams scored pretty easily in overtime, but Gio Lopez‘s 2-point pass to Benjamin Hall came up just short after a brilliant tackle from Ja’son Prevard.
10. No. 22 Texas 45, Mississippi State 38 (OT). I guess it makes sense that Mississippi State didn’t know how to close out a win. The Bulldogs have been quite competitive this season, but they still came into this one having lost 15 straight conference games, and after Davon Booth‘s 62-yard touchdown put the Bulldogs up 38-21 early in the fourth quarter, the MSU offense proceeded to lose six yards over its final 17 snaps. Texas scored twice, then tied the score on a 79-yard punt return Ryan Niblett, the scariest return man in the country who has made pivotal fourth-quarter returns in three straight games.
0:43
Ryan Niblett takes 79-yard punt return to the house
Ryan Niblett scores on a 79-yard punt return late in the 4th quarter to tie things up for Texas vs. Mississippi State.
In overtime, Arch Manning left the game because of an apparent concussion, but backup Matthew Caldwell pulled a Major Applewhite, throwing a beautiful 10-yard touchdown to Emmett Mosley V. MSU’s hopeless offense moved straight backward, giving the Longhorns a second straight overtime road win over a winless-in-the-league opponent.
11. FCS: NC A&T 28, Campbell 24. We’ll save an honorary place on this week’s Heisman list for North Carolina A&T’s Elijah Kennedy, who tied the score on a 96-yard punt return with 6:12 left and then, after Campbell took the lead on a field goal, returned the ensuing kickoff 85 yards for the win. He out-Niblett’d Niblett.
What a day for Elijah Kennedy!! A Punt and Kickoff Return for TD!! #AggiePride | #PoundTheStone| #CAAFB pic.twitter.com/MigT2frR6Z
— Aggie Pride (@NCATFootball) October 25, 2025
12. Kent State 24, Bowling Green 21. Kent State entered this season having won only one of its previous 24 games. The Golden Flashes are now 3-5 after turning around a 21-3 deficit with three touchdowns — including a trick-play pass from receiver Da’Realyst Clark to Wayne Harris — and two late stops.
13. No. 8 Ole Miss 34, No. 13 Oklahoma 26. Ole Miss threatened to run away with this one, easing out to a 22-10 halftime lead. A 16-3 run gave the Sooners the advantage heading into the fourth quarter, but the Rebels made all the late plays they didn’t make against Georgia, scoring twice, making three stops and leaving Norman with a playoff bid looking likely.
14. FCS: Charleston Southern 17, Eastern Illinois 16. With six minutes left, this was anything but a “favorite games” contender. EIU led 16-3, but CSU scored, forced a three-and-out and took the lead on a short Hakeem Watters touchdown. EIU quickly drove the length of the field to save itself, but David Portu blocked what would have been a winning 35-yard field goal attempt.
BLOCKED! THE KICK IS BLOCKED! 🤯@CSU_FB blocks EIU’s go-ahead field goal attempt with 14 seconds left, and the Buccaneers win a second straight!#OVCBigSouthFB | #BucStrong pic.twitter.com/TbOjlzopEm
— OVC-Big South Football Association (@OVCBigSouthFB) October 25, 2025
15. Temple 38, Tulsa 37 (OT). Temple is one win away from bowl eligibility, but it took overtime to get the job done in Tulsa. After four second-half lead changes, Tulsa’s Dominic Richardson scored to send the game to overtime, where, like North Carolina, the home underdog scored second, went for two and failed.
16. Nebraska 28, Northwestern 21. Nebraska had it, lost it, then took it away one more time. Northwestern’s Caleb Komolafe scored twice to turn a 21-6 deficit into a 21-21 tie, but Nebraska drove 60 yards in 6:27, made it 28-21 with Emmett Johnson‘s 4-yard touchdown and forced a turnover on downs at their 35 with a minute left. A fun, intense game in a forever-intense environment.
17. Division III: DePauw 35, Denison 28. DePauw’s defense lost the game, then won it. Down 28-0 late in the first half, Denison roared back and tied the score on a 99-yard Tyler Green-to-Grayson Kerscher touchdown pass with 7:02 left. DePauw recovered and took the lead back with a 5:34 drive and a 1-yard Caden Whitehead score, but Green completed four passes to move Denison back inside the Tigers’ 25. But Joey Fico broke up a pass in the end zone, and DePauw survived.
18. Rice 37, UConn 34 (2OT). Like Minnesota, UConn has been all over the map, overachieving hugely against projections twice and underachieving three times. Following a win at Boston College, the Huskies visited Rice, jumped out to a quick lead, then fell victim to two long Quinton Jackson touchdowns in regulation, then two more Jackson scores in OT.
19. NAIA: College of Idaho 7, Eastern Oregon 0. Again, you get bonus points for winning a game in a way I haven’t seen. In a game that featured 12 punts, three missed field goal attempts, three turnovers, three turnovers on downs and less than 400 combined yards, Eastern Oregon used an interception to set up a potential winning field goal with 1:10 left. But College of Idaho’s Dee’Shon Swaffo blocked the 49-yard attempt, then took it 60 yards for the game’s only points.
20. Division II: No. 1 Ferris State 38, No. 18 Grand Valley State 31. The Anchor-Bone Classic, the biggest helmet game in Division II, lived up to its billing. GVSU outgained the defending national champs (462-433) but couldn’t quite overcome Taariik Brett, who ran for two touchdowns and caught two touchdown passes from Wyatt Bower (aka the new Trinidad Chambliss). GVSU overcame an early 14-0 deficit to tie the score at 21-21, but Brett and Bower both scored to build the lead again. The Bulldogs finally put the game away with an onside kick recovery with 1:35 remaining.
AVONDALE, Ariz. — Kyle Larson knew he wasn’t going to catch Denny Hamlin in the final laps on Sunday, not without the sort of help that only a caution flag can bring.
Larson got his lucky break.
Hamlin only got heartbreak.
Larson is now a two-time NASCAR champion after denying Hamlin what would have been his first career title when a late caution at Phoenix Raceway sent the championship-deciding finale into overtime.
Without that caution, which came with three laps to run, Hamlin had it locked up and was ready to finally shed the label of greatest NASCAR driver to never win a championship. But fellow title contender William Byron got a flat tire and hit the wall to bring out the caution, and a few minutes later, it was over.
“Just unbelievable,” Larson said. “I cannot believe it.”
Neither could Hamlin.
“I really don’t have much for emotion right now. Just numb about it ’cause just in shock,” Hamlin said after consoling his crying daughters on pit road. “We were 40 seconds away from a championship. This sport can drive you absolutely crazy because sometimes speed, talent, none of that matters.”
When the caution for Byron came out, Hamlin led the field down pit road and got four new tires on his Toyota; Larson only took two tires on his Chevrolet. It meant Larson was fifth for the two-lap sprint to the finish, with Hamlin back in 10th.
With so little time to run down Larson, Hamlin came up short with a sixth-place finish as Larson finished third. Ryan Blaney, who was eliminated from title contention last week, won the race.
“You do have to feel for that group and Denny. Doing a good job all day, it not playing out for him. But that is racing. It sucks sometimes,” Blaney said. “They can hang their head about it, but they should be very proud about the effort. They had the fastest race car here. Just one of those things where it doesn’t work out. Looked like it was going into his favor, unfortunately for him, it didn’t.”
It is the second championship for Larson, who won his first title in 2021 when he joined Hendrick Motorsports.
As Larson celebrated, Hamlin sat in his car motionless for several seconds, then wiped his face with a white towel, never showing any emotion.
Larson, who has been in a slump since his disastrous Memorial Day attempt to race both the Indianapolis 500 and Coca-Cola 600 on the same day, was also in shock.
“We didn’t lead a lap and won the championship,” Larson said. “We had an average car at best and had the right front [tire] go down, lost a lap and got the wave around, saved by the caution with the wave around. It’s just unbelievable. What a year by this motorsports team.”
When Hamlin finally got out of his car he embraced his crew members but it was a scene of disbelief among the Joe Gibbs Racing crowd. Team members were crying, some sitting in shock on the pavement; Gibbs himself stood silent, one hand on his hip and a look of disbelief on his face.
It is the sixth shot at a title to slip away from Hamlin in his 20 years driving for Gibbs. He led 208 of the 319 laps and started from the pole.
“Nothing I could do different. I mean, prepared as good as I could coming into the weekend and my team gave me a fantastic car,” Hamlin said. “Just didn’t work out. I was just praying ‘no caution’ and we had one there. What can you do? It’s just not meant to be.”
He said crew chief Chris Gayle made the correct call with four tires, but too many others took only two, which created too big of a gap for Hamlin to close on Larson in so little time.
The 44-year-old Virginia native had been extremely jinxed in five previous championship finales, with bad luck, bad strategy and bad cars breaking his heart in 2010, 2014, 2019, 2020 and 2021. Sunday was his first time eligible in the winner-take-all race in four seasons.
Hamlin was remarkably loose and calm all week, rented three houses in Scottsdale for 30 friends and family, won the pole and then dominated Sunday’s race.
He just didn’t close it out.
“Man, if you can’t win that one, I don’t know which one you can win,” Hamlin said.
Larson was OK during the race, but hasn’t won since early May, a slump that has now extended to 24 consecutive races.
Hamlin teammate Chase Briscoe finished 18th in his debut in the championship finale, while Larson teammate Byron was 33rd after his late issue. He felt awful for ruining Hamlin’s chance even though his Hendrick Motorsports teammate won the championship.
“I’m just super bummed that it was a caution obviously. I hate that. Hate it for Denny. I hate it for the 11 team,” Byron said. “I mean, Denny was on his way to it. I hate that. There’s a lot of respect there. I obviously do not want to cause a caution. If I had known what tire it was, known that a tire was going down before I got to the corner, I would have done something different.”
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Kyle Bonagura
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Kyle Bonagura
ESPN Staff Writer
- Covers college football.
- Joined ESPN in 2014.
- Attended Washington State University.
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Mark Schlabach
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Mark Schlabach
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior college football writer
- Author of seven books on college football
- Graduate of the University of Georgia
While there was stability at the very top of the college football hierarchy in Week 10 — with Ohio State and Indiana rolling to big wins — there were plenty of surprises and consequential results further down the pecking order.
The biggest shockwaves came in the ACC, where Georgia Tech suffered its first loss of the season, Miami lost for the second week in a row and Virginia emerged in sole possession of first place. If the Cavaliers can hold on and win the ACC championship, they would be a most unlikely participant in the College Football Playoff.
As with last season’s inaugural 12-team CFP, the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, will make the field. Unlike last year, the four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds Nos. 5 through 8.
From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year’s Six bowls, with the national championship game scheduled for Jan. 19 at Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium.
All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 35-game slate of bowl games, beginning with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13.
We’re here for all of it.
ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out, and we’ll be back every week of the season until the actual matchups are set.
Jump to a section:
Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season
College Football Playoff
First-round games (at campus sites)
Friday, Dec. 19/Saturday, Dec. 20
Times and networks TBD.
Bonagura: No. 12 North Texas at No. 5 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 12 Memphis at No. 5 Georgia
Bonagura: No. 11 Virginia at No. 6 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 11 Virginia at No. 6 Ole Miss
Bonagura: No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Ole Miss
Schlabach: No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Oregon
Bonagura: No. 9 Texas Tech at No. 8 BYU
Schlabach: No. 9 Texas Tech at No. 8 BYU
First-round breakdown
Bonagura: North Texas to the playoffs? Sure, why not? After ending Navy’s undefeated season Saturday, the Mean Green are positioned as well as anyone else to win the American, which will likely result in a playoff spot. You can drum up a scenario where San Diego State gets picked from the Mountain West, but the American champion is in the driver’s seat. And picking from the league’s pool of options is tough: Navy, Memphis, North Texas, Tulane, South Florida and East Carolina all have just one conference loss. The Mean Green have been the most impressive over the past three weeks.
Georgia Tech’s loss to NC State means the ACC no longer has an undefeated team, which stands as another indicator the ACC will be a one-bid league. Is that team Virginia? The Cavaliers’ only loss of the season also came against NC State, but that was classified as a nonconference game, so they’re still undefeated in league play. Regardless, it’s hard to be optimistic about the chances any ACC team will win a first-round game.
Schlabach: It was another unpredictable Saturday in college football with three teams in the AP Top 10 falling. I’m sure we’ll see plenty of chaos over the final month of the regular season, too.
Vanderbilt’s dream season hit a road bump at Texas, as Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning threw for 328 yards with three touchdowns in a 34-31 victory. The Longhorns have won four in a row after most of us left them for dead. They’ll play at Georgia in two weeks, followed by home games against Arkansas and Texas A&M.
Georgia Tech suffered its first loss of the season in an ugly 48-36 defeat at NC State. The Wolfpack had 583 yards of offense, including 243 rushing, as Tech’s defense had no answers. The Yellow Jackets will play surging Pittsburgh and rival Georgia in their final two games, so they’ll have to get things fixed quickly.
Georgia Tech, Miami, Vanderbilt and Navy all fell out of my 12-team bracket. I replaced them with Texas Tech, Notre Dame, Virginia and Memphis.
CFP quarterfinals
Wednesday, Dec. 31
CFP quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 4 Alabama
Thursday, Jan. 1
CFP quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Alabama
Schlabach: No. 7 Oregon vs. No. 2 Indiana
CFP quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 8 BYU vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 9 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Ohio State
CFP quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
Schlabach: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
Quarterfinals breakdown
Bonagura: Half of this week’s projected quarterfinal field — Texas A&M, Alabama, Oregon and BYU — was off this weekend in what felt like a quiet one for college football. The only change for me here from last week is that Georgia Tech is gone, with BYU in its place. The Cougars travel to Texas Tech this week in what might be the most consequential conference game outside the SEC and Big Ten the rest of the way.
BYU is following a similar script to last season, when it started 8-0, only to lose twice late in the year and miss out on a trip to the Big 12 title game. Things are tight again in the Big 12, so this is as close as it gets to a must-win game for both teams.
Schlabach: My quarterfinal matchups largely remained unchanged from a week ago, although Texas Tech replaced Georgia Tech in one of the games.
The CFP selection committee members wouldn’t admit it, but hopefully they’ll tweak the final rankings to avoid the intraconference matchups in my bracket. There are all-SEC matchups in the Cotton Bowl and Sugar Bowl, and an all-Big Ten contest in the Orange Bowl.
Texas Tech and BYU are in the driver’s seat for a Big 12 title, and I’m not sure the unbeaten Cougars are getting enough love nationally. They’ve already beaten Utah and Iowa State, and they’ll have a chance to make an emphatic statement when they play the Red Raiders on Saturday.
CFP semifinals, national championship game
Thursday, Jan. 8
CFP semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Friday, Jan. 9
CFP semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Indiana
Monday, Jan. 19
CFP national championship
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 1 Ohio State
National championship breakdown
Bonagura: With Ohio State and Indiana both winning decisively, there is no reason to revisit the title game projection. They continue to look like the two best teams in college football and haven’t showed any signs of slowing down.
Schlabach: Ohio State and Indiana continued to roll this week. The Buckeyes got off to a slow start before dismantling Penn State 38-14. The Buckeyes will be heavy favorites in their next three games — a road trip to Purdue and home contests against UCLA and Rutgers — before closing the regular season at rival Michigan in the Big House on Nov. 29.
Indiana also got off to a slow start before routing Maryland 55-10 on the road. Indiana has won its past three games against Michigan State, UCLA and Maryland by a combined 120 points. It doesn’t figure to get much more difficult over the Hoosiers’ final three games against struggling Penn State (road), Wisconsin (home) and Purdue (road).
Complete bowl season schedule
Saturday, Dec. 13
Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Jackson State vs. Delaware State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. Delaware State
LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Arizona vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Arizona vs. San Diego State
Tuesday, Dec. 16
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisiana Tech vs. East Carolina
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Coastal Carolina
Wednesday, Dec. 17
StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Buffalo vs. Jacksonville State
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Old Dominion
68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Arkansas State vs. Western Michigan
Schlabach: Liberty vs. Central Michigan
Friday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: UCF vs. Marshall
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. James Madison
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: South Florida vs. Florida State
Schlabach: UConn vs. Florida State
Monday, Dec. 22
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Toledo vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Ohio vs. UNLV
Tuesday, Dec. 23
Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Southern Miss vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: Temple vs. Miami (Ohio)
New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Old Dominion
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UTSA vs. Hawai’i
Schlabach: North Texas vs. Louisiana Tech
Wednesday, Dec. 24
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Boise State vs. California
Schlabach: Hawai’i vs. Tulane
Friday, Dec. 26
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Maryland vs. Ohio
Schlabach: Maryland vs. Western Michigan
Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Baylor vs. Northwestern
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Northwestern
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Temple vs. Troy
Schlabach: Boise State vs. Iowa State
Saturday, Dec. 27
Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. Navy
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Minnesota
Schlabach: SMU vs. Minnesota
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Army
Schlabach: NC State vs. South Florida
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Miami vs. Cincinnati
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Cincinnati
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Fresno State
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: New Mexico vs. Washington State
Schlabach: New Mexico vs. Washington State
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: Louisville vs. LSU
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Vanderbilt
Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: TCU vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: Houston vs. Oklahoma
Monday, Dec. 29
JLab Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Memphis vs. James Madison
Schlabach: Troy vs. UTSA
Tuesday, Dec. 30
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Kennesaw State
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Kennesaw State
Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Illinois vs. LSU
Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Houston vs. Washington
Schlabach: Utah vs. USC
Wednesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Illinois vs. Vanderbilt
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Tennessee
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Duke vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Arizona State
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Texas
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Texas
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa vs. Utah
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. California
Friday, Jan. 2
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas vs. Navy
Schlabach: Kansas vs. Army
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Auburn
Schlabach: TCU vs. Mississippi State
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: SMU vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Duke vs. Missouri
Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. USC
Schlabach: Miami vs. Washington
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Bill Connelly
Two top-10 teams fell on the road to unranked opponents. A third fell to a lower-ranked team. No. 5 Georgia flirted with disaster, as always, and just because nothing is allowed to make total sense in the ACC, No. 15 Virginia and No. 16 Louisville also thought hard about face-planting before rallying.
Week 10 didn’t give us quite as many absolute disasters as it could have, and the damage was mostly contained to the increasingly chaotic ACC. And with two-thirds of the 2025 college football season done, we now shift into Playoff Hyperdrive.
Let’s look back on Week 10 with help from the construct I used for the Week 10 preview: Playoff Tiers.
Updated playoff tiers
The first College Football Playoff rankings of the season come out Tuesday, and using a combination of the Allstate Playoff Predictor and odds driven by my SP+ rankings, we can pretty easily bunch teams into groups of playoff likelihood. The tiers didn’t change all that much this weekend, though conveniently, each team that lost fell into the tier below.
Tier 1
Indiana (9-0, 99.5% average playoff odds) — def. Maryland 55-10 Saturday
Ohio State (8-0, 99.3%) — def. Penn State 38-14
Texas A&M (8-0, 95.7%)
With A&M off and Indiana and Ohio State winning by a combined 93-24, nothing changed here. These are the three most likely teams to make the CFP, and while the playoff committee could overthink and try to talk itself into ranking Alabama ahead of A&M or something because of ranked wins, the Aggies deserve the edge to me, both because of their road win over Tier 3’s Notre Dame and the extremely important fact that they didn’t lose to a 4-4 Florida State team like the Tide did.
Tier 2
Ole Miss (8-1, 83.6%) — def. South Carolina 30-14
Oregon (7-1, 75.6%)
Alabama (7-1, 74.0%)
BYU (8-0, 69.3%)
Texas Tech (8-1, 68.5%) — def. Kansas State 43-20
Georgia (7-1, 54.1%) — def. Florida 24-20
With Georgia Tech’s loss to NC State on Saturday, the Yellow Jackets dropped from Tier 2 to Tier 3, but with a surprisingly comfortable road win over a smoking hot Kansas State, Texas Tech jumped from Tier 3 to 2. I’m curious how the CFP committee might view the Red Raiders, a team with eight wins by at least 23 points and a lone loss coming without starting quarterback Behren Morton. Their strength-of-schedule numbers aren’t very good, but they ace the eye test, and if “best” is supposed to matter over “most deserving,” well, they’re fourth in SP+.
Georgia, meanwhile, is uninterested in passing “eye tests.” The Bulldogs once again painted themselves into a corner, this time spotting rival Florida a 20-17 lead and letting them drive into field goal range midway through the fourth quarter. But they rallied once again, stuffing Jadan Baugh on fourth-and-1, immediately driving for a touchdown, then forcing a four-and-out and winning the game. They look impressive for about one quarter per game, but they’re 7-1 with a Tier 2 win over Ole Miss and a lone loss to Tier 2 Bama. The road still features games against Texas and Georgia Tech, however.
Tier 3
Notre Dame (6-2, 41.1%) — def. Boston College 25-10
Virginia (8-1, 37.6%) — def. California 31-21
Louisville (7-1, 37.1%) — def. Virginia Tech 28-16
Texas (7-2, 33.5%) — def. Vanderbilt 34-31
Georgia Tech (8-1, 30.2%) — lost to NC State 48-36
Tier 3 is evidently the transition tier. Of last week’s four Tier 3 teams, one moved up with a win (Texas Tech), and two moved down with losses (Miami, Vanderbilt). Meanwhile, it caught Georgia Tech on the way down and Texas on the way up. And with all the other chaos in the ACC, two one-loss teams that won as favorites Saturday (Virginia and Louisville) saw their conference title odds rise by solid amounts. They also moved up from Tier 4.
Tier 4
Oklahoma (7-2, 27.0%) — def. Tennessee 33-27
Vanderbilt (7-2, 26.8%) — lost to Texas 34-31
Utah (7-2, 24.2%) — def. Cincinnati 45-14
Miami (6-2, 17.9%) — lost to SMU 26-20
USC (6-2, 14.0%) — def. Nebraska 21-17
Washington (6-2, 13.6%)
Missouri (6-2, 10.7%)
Michigan (7-2, 10.5%) — def. Purdue 21-16
Pitt (7-2, 6.9%) — def. Stanford 35-20
Duke (5-3, 6.4%) — def. Clemson 46-45
Iowa (6-2, 6.0%)
SMU (6-3, 5.7%) — def. Miami 26-20
Oklahoma and Vanderbilt both have decent enough odds that I could have slipped them into Tier 3, but since they’ve both lost to Tier 3 Texas, and head-to-head matchups between two-loss SEC teams could matter a lot, we’ll go ahead and put them here. At this point, Tier 4 is a mix of two-loss Big Ten and SEC teams (OU, Vandy, USC, Washington, Mizzou, Michigan, Iowa), two-loss Big 12 and ACC teams that either have impressive wins (Miami) or are simply smoking hot (Utah, Pitt) and three-loss ACC teams that still have a puncher’s chance at the conference title (Duke, SMU).
Tier (Group of) 5
James Madison (7-1, 27.7%) — def. Texas State 52-20
North Texas (8-1, 26.4%) — def. Navy 31-17
Memphis (8-1, 15.9%) — def. Rice 38-14
USF (6-2, 13.9%)
San Diego State (7-1, 8.9%) — def. Wyoming 24-7
There’s still a scenario in which, say, SMU wins the ACC at 10-3 but ranks behind a pair of one-loss Group of 5 champions, and the G5 ends up with multiple bids. That said, one G5 bid is still far and away the most likely scenario, and that race remains awfully interesting. JMU impressed enough in San Marcos last Tuesday that the Dukes jumped from 50th to 36th in SP+. They aren’t going to finish with a great résumé — their most impressive performance was a loss to Louisville in which they were tied in the fourth quarter before a fumble recovery touchdown put them behind — but they look the part enough that they should feel good about their chances if they finish 12-1 to win the Sun Belt, and the American Conference champ is 11-2.
Still, it’s clear the American winner, whoever it ends up being, is most likely to score the bid even if JMU’s odds are better than any single team.
What Tuesday’s rankings should look like
For the past couple of years, I’ve been fiddling with what amounts to a BCS-ish formula, derived half from the AP poll and half from a combination of both computer power ratings (SP+ and FPI) and computer résumé ratings (Résumé SP+ and Strength of Record). With a few exceptions — Alabama over Florida State in 2023, SMU over Alabama in 2024 — it tends to adhere pretty closely to what the committee ends up deciding.
Tuesday’s rankings will be the first since the CFP committee began using “enhanced metrics to help evaluate schedule strength,” however. What does that mean in practice? I have no idea. So in anticipation of Tuesday’s release, let’s look at four rankings for the teams most likely to be ranked by the committee: 1) their AP poll ranking; 2) their ranking in this BCS-ish formula; 3) their Strength of Record ranking and 4) their Résumé SP+ ranking.
This obviously adheres pretty closely to the tiers above, but it gives us a good idea of what to look for Tuesday night. If the committee really is taking strength of schedule or strength of record further into account — and for the record, I really don’t think it needed to — then we might expect teams that are more well regarded by the computers to win some arguments. Texas A&M would definitely rank ahead of Alabama in this case, and BYU might rank higher as well. Also, two-loss Texas and Vanderbilt would likely trump one-loss Louisville and Georgia Tech.
All in all, I think the top 11 on Tuesday should end up looking almost identical to the AP poll, while the spots from No. 12 to No. 21 could end up in pretty much any order.
A hypothetical playoff simulation, because why not?
Based on where teams are most likely to rank this week (via the BCS-ish rankings above) and which teams are currently most likely to win their conferences (per SP+), here’s what I’m going to call Week 11’s playoff bracket.
9 Texas Tech at 8 BYU
Winner plays 1 Ohio State
12 North Texas at 5 Georgia
Winner plays 4 Alabama
11 Louisville at 6 Oregon
Winner plays 3 Texas A&M
10 Notre Dame at 7 Ole Miss
Winner plays 2 Indiana
We’ll see a shakeup following Week 11’s Texas Tech-BYU battle in Lubbock, but for now, this gives us Notre Dame’s first-ever trip to Oxford, a potential playoff rematch between Indiana and Notre Dame in the quarterfinals and another Alabama-Georgia playoff game (this time in the quarterfinals). Based on current SP+ rankings, it would also give us these national title odds based on 10,000 simulations:
Hypothetical title odds based on the above bracket:
1-seed Ohio State 30.6%
2-seed Indiana 28.2%
6-seed Oregon 12.4%
3-seed Texas A&M 7.4%
4-seed Alabama 6.8%
9-seed Texas Tech 5.6%
5-seed Georgia 3.0%
10-seed Notre Dame 2.4%
7-seed Ole Miss 1.7%
8-seed BYU 1.1%
11-seed Louisville 0.4%
12-seed North Texas 0.2%
And because odds alone aren’t very satisfying, I grabbed a random simulation from the batch of 10,000. Here’s what’s officially going to happen this postseason. You can stop watching now.
(Please don’t stop watching.)
FIRST ROUND
Texas Tech over BYU in Provo
Georgia over North Texas in Athens
Oregon over Louisville in Eugene
Notre Dame over Ole Miss in Oxford
QUARTERFINALS
Rose Bowl: Texas Tech over Ohio State
Sugar Bowl: Alabama over Georgia
Cotton Bowl: Texas A&M over Oregon
Orange Bowl: Indiana over Notre Dame
SEMIFINALS
Peach Bowl: Alabama over Texas Tech
Fiesta Bowl: Indiana over Texas A&M
FINALS
Indiana over Alabama in Miami
If you Google Indiana’s Curt Cignetti, as he told you to a couple of years ago, it might soon tell you that he’s a national title-winning head coach.
5 other random thoughts from Week 10
Damn, Mario. By Mario Cristobal’s standards, his late-game management against SMU wasn’t a crime against humanity or anything, but after SMU tied the game with 25 seconds left, Miami got the ball back with a timeout in hand and a quarterback Cristobal paid loads of money for … and the Hurricanes kneeled out the clock to go to overtime. Granted, Carson Beck’s dreadful overtime interception, which set up SMU’s winning touchdown, certainly didn’t help his cause, but it doesn’t matter how much money you shell out if you’re still going to play by “Three things can happen when you pass, and two are bad” rules in the 2020s.
But since Cristobal took over at Miami in 2022, his Hurricanes have lost five games as double-digit favorites; only Alabama can match that total, and (A) Bama has been a double-digit favorite 50% more often and (B) three of the Tide’s five such losses came in a small cluster of games last season. Cristobal has lost at least one such game each year that he’s been in charge. Death, taxes and Miami suffering a catastrophic loss it should have put away.
Holy (whistle) smokes (whistle), Arkansas (whistle). Generally speaking, penalties and penalty yards don’t correlate to wins and losses as much as you might think. Committing a lot of penalties can often signify that you’re properly pushing the limits from an aggressiveness standpoint, and of the 66 teams to have suffered more than 100 penalty yards in a game this season, 38 ended up winning the game.
It’s nice to know there are limits, however. Arkansas committed 18 penalties for 193 yards against Mississippi State on Saturday, the third most for any FBS team in any game over the last 10 seasons. Only Kansas (216 yards in a win over UNLV in 2023) and Northern Illinois (194 in a win over Eastern Illinois in 2017) can top that number. But while those teams still managed to win, Arkansas’ discipline ran out late. Mississippi State scored 17 points in the game’s final 11 minutes to overcome a 14-point deficit and win 38-35. If Sam Pittman hadn’t already been fired, he probably would be now. (And it probably goes without saying that interim coach Bobby Petrino hasn’t shined enough to justify hiring him full time, though I’m sure you can still find an Arkansas booster advocating for it.)
So many close SEC games. We can question whether the SEC has a team the caliber of Ohio State or Indiana this season, but we cannot question its commitment to competitiveness. The league featured six games Saturday, five were decided by one score — including both of its ranked-versus-ranked encounters — and the sixth was within one score with 12 minutes left. For the season, the league has had 43 conference games to date, with 26 decided by one touchdown or less. It’s been close enough overall that Arkansas somehow (A) ranks first in the league in points per drive in conference play and (B) is 0-5 in conference play.
Close games will define the rest of November, too. Texas A&M (5-0 in SEC play) has two road games with a projected margin of less than two points, and despite being pretty close to the finish line the Aggies have higher odds of losing two or more in November (27%) than reaching 12-0 (25%).
Alabama (5-0) has three conference games remaining, and all three are projected within single digits, two within one score. SP+ gives the Tide only a 25% chance of winning its four remaining games, with 26% odds of losing at least twice.
Georgia’s odds, meanwhile, are almost identical — the Bulldogs (5-1) have two projected one-score SEC games remaining (at Mississippi State, Texas), plus a one-score visit to Georgia Tech. The result: a 25% chance of winning out and a 30% chance of losing at least twice.
Texas (4-1) actually looked the part for most of Saturday’s win over Vanderbilt, but the Longhorns are projected underdogs in two of three remaining games (at Georgia, Texas A&M), and Arkansas is not a gimme. Odds of winning out: 15%.
Ole Miss (5-1) has the most navigable path of any major conference contender, with only Florida and Mississippi State remaining in SEC play. Odds of winning out: 54%. Then again, the Rebels lost to Florida last year, and the Egg Bowl lives for nonsense.
Colorado looks done done. Over its last two games against Utah and Arizona, Colorado was projected to lose by a combined 23.1 points. The Buffaloes instead lost by 81. Last week’s 53-7 loss to Utah was almost understandable in retrospect (the Utes just walloped Cincinnati, too), but they were equally moribund in Saturday evening’s home loss to Arizona. And based on a weighted average of recent performances (where the most recent game carries more weight), they are officially the team that is underachieving the most against current SP+ projections.
There are plenty of other teams staggering and/or falling at the moment – Syracuse, Penn State, Louisiana-Monroe, Delaware, Maryland, Texas State, Bowling Green – but CU leads the pack. And if the Buffs can’t beat West Virginia in Morgantown this coming weekend, a 3-9 finish begins to look awfully likely. Would that increase the odds of Deion Sanders stepping down at the end of the season?
DeSean Jackson was a spectacular hire. Remember in the offseason, when Norfolk State (Michael Vick) and Delaware State (DeSean Jackson) went the Deion Sanders/Eddie George route and hired celebrated former players as their head coaches? Vick was the bigger headline-grabber – he’s Michael Vick, after all – and he has struggled in year one, as you might expect from a first-time head coach. Norfolk State went 4-8 and finished 101st in FCS SP+ last season; the Spartans are just 1-8 and 115th this season. They have a couple of semi-winnable games left against Morgan State and Howard (they will likely get drubbed by N.C. Central this coming week), but it’s been a year of growing pains.
For Jackson and his Hornets, however, it’s been the exact opposite story. DSU went 1-11 and finished 123rd in SP+ last season, and they haven’t finished higher than 5-6 or 83rd over the past decade. Last Thursday’s win over Vick’s NSU, however, brought them to 6-3 and 54th overall. They’ve already upset N.C. Central, and if they can win a tossup game at home against S.C. State in Week 13, they’ll win their first MEAC title since 2007 and score their first Celebration Bowl bid. It’s looking like Jackson was one of the best hires of last offseason’s coaching carousel.
This week in SP+
The SP+ rankings are updated for the week. Let’s take a look at the teams that saw the biggest change in their overall ratings. (Note: We’re looking at ratings, not rankings.)
Moving up
Here are the 10 teams that saw their ratings rise the most this week:
Fresno State: up 3.7 adjusted points per game (ranking rose from 93rd to 78th)
East Carolina: up 3.4 points (from 61st to 48th)
Florida State: up 3.3 points (from 34th to 24th)
Louisiana Tech: up 3.3 points (from 76th to 67th)
Western Kentucky: up 3.1 points (from 88th to 72nd)
Buffalo: up 2.9 points (from 99th to 87th)
James Madison: up 2.8 points (from 50th to 36th)
Arizona: up 2.8 points (from 43rd to 31st)
UTSA: up 2.7 points (from 70th to 65th)
North Carolina: up 2.5 points (from 98th to 89th)
The ACC’s oddities didn’t stop at the games involving ranked teams. Duke’s win over Clemson was the most statistically unlikely result of the week — Duke somehow won despite a mammoth efficiency disadvantage (success rate: Clemson 58.3%, Duke 37.5%) — and in Tallahassee, Florida State somehow transferred all of its bad vibes to its opponent. Wake Forest collapsed under the weight of its mistakes and the Seminoles’ sudden excellence, and the teams basically traded seven points: FSU moved up 3.3 and, as you’ll see below, Wake moved down 3.7.
Meanwhile, this is the faintest of praise, but since bottoming out at 103rd in SP+ three weeks ago, North Carolina has rallied to 89th, suffering a pair of gut-wrenching losses and finally getting off the schneid with a thumping of quarterback-less Syracuse. The Tar Heels will have to pull at least a pair of upsets to have any hope of bowling, but improvement can be encouraging in and of itself.
Moving down
Here are the 10 teams whose ratings fell the most:
Wake Forest: down 3.7 adjusted points per game (ranking fell from 56th to 68th)
Cincinnati: down 3.5 points (from 23rd to 32nd)
Maryland: down 3.3 points (from 37th to 51st)
Georgia Tech: down 3.2 points (from 25th to 34th)
Boise State: down 3.0 points (from 47th to 55th)
Colorado: down 3.0 points (from 68th to 82nd)
UCF: down 2.9 points (from 51st to 56th)
Rutgers: down 2.5 points (from 63rd to 69th)
Sam Houston: down 2.4 points (no change from 135th)
South Carolina: down 2.4 points (from 54th to 61st)
Georgia Tech entered Week 10 as the lowest-ranked unbeaten power-conference team by a comfortable margin. After getting pushed around by NC State, the Yellow Jackets are lodged between 4-5 Auburn and James Madison in SP+.
Who won the Heisman this week?
I am once again awarding the Heisman every week of the season and doling out weekly points, F1-style (in this case, 10 points for first place, 9 for second and so on). How will this Heisman race play out, and how different will the result be from the actual Heisman voting?
Here is this week’s Heisman top 10:
1. Jeff Sims, Arizona State (13-for-24 passing for 177 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT, plus 228 non-sack rushing yards and 2 TDs against Iowa State).
2. Julian Sayin, Ohio State (20-for-23 passing for 316 yards and 4 touchdowns against Penn State).
3. CJ Bailey, NC State (24-for-32 passing for 340 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 41 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Georgia Tech).
4. Jordan Marshall, Michigan (25 carries for 185 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 25 receiving yards against Purdue).
5. Owen McCown, UTSA (31-for-33 passing for 370 yards and 4 touchdowns against Tulane).
6. Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame (17 carries for 136 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 30 receiving yards against Boston College).
7. Arch Manning, Texas (25-for-33 passing for 328 yards and 3 touchdowns against Vanderbilt).
8. Haynes King, Georgia Tech (25-for-35 passing for 408 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT, plus 113 non-sack rushing yards and 2 TDs against NC State).
9. Darian Mensah, Duke (27-for-41 passing for 361 yards and 4 touchdowns against Clemson).
10. Melkart Abou Jaoude, North Carolina (6 tackles, 2.5 TFLs, 2 sacks and 1 forced fumble against Syracuse).
Jeff Sims is the journeyman prototype for the transfer portal era. He has started 28 career games at three schools (Georgia Tech, Nebraska and Arizona State), and in those, he has produced some duds — 10 games with a Total QBR under 30.0, three under 10.0. But he has also thrown for more than 250 yards five times and rushed for 100 or more yards (not including sacks) seven times. And on Saturday in Ames, Iowa, he painted a Sims-ian masterpiece, throwing the ball reasonably well but ripping off an 88-yard touchdown run in the third quarter and nearly doubling his previous career high in rushing.
Sims is quite obviously not a Heisman contender, but one of the reasons I love this Heisman of the Week approach is that we can celebrate when guys like Sims do something beautiful. He even topped nearly perfect performances from Julian Sayin and Owen McCown and a gutsy, hobbled game from CJ Bailey.
Honorable mention:
• Luke Altmyer, Illinois (19-for-31 passing for 235 yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT, plus 95 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Rutgers).
• Alonza Barnett III, James Madison (12-for-18 passing for 264 yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT, plus 102 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Texas State).
• Tommy Castellanos, Florida State (12-for-16 passing for 271 yards and a touchdown, plus 18 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Wake Forest).
• Evan Dickens, Liberty (22 carries for 217 yards and 4 touchdowns against Delaware).
• Caleb Hawkins, North Texas (33 carries for 197 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 9 receiving yards against Navy).
• Kevin Jennings, SMU (29-for-44 passing for 365 yards and a touchdown, plus a rushing touchdown against Miami).
• Jayden Scott, NC State (24 carries for 196 yards and a touchdown, plus 11 receiving yards against Georgia Tech).
• Danny Scudero, San Jose State (7 catches for 215 yards and 2 touchdowns against Hawai’i).
Through 10 weeks, here are your points leaders. I’ve bolded the guys who are also in the top 12 in the current Heisman betting odds.
1. Ty Simpson, Alabama (29 points)
2. Taylen Green, Arkansas (27)
3T. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (25)
3T. Julian Sayin, Ohio State (25)
5. Demond Williams Jr., Washington (21)
6T. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (19)
6T. Gunner Stockton, Georgia (19)
8. Luke Altmyer, Illinois (16)
9. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt (14)
10T. Haynes King, Georgia Tech (13)
10T. Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame (13)
We might be approaching a “Winner takes the No. 1 seed, winning QB takes the Heisman” game between Sayin’s Ohio State — the current Heisman betting favorite, per ESPN BET — and Mendoza’s Indiana in the Big Ten championship game in four weeks. Simpson, Chambliss and Stockton still have clear paths to impress, however, and with Love shifting into fifth gear over the past two games (a combined 41 carries for 364 yards) he might catch voters’ eyes if he keeps ripping off 94-yard touchdown runs.
My 10 favorite games of the weekend
1 and 2. SMU 26, No. 10 Miami 20 (OT) and Duke 46, Clemson 45. Obviously, Miami was the main character in Saturday’s loss, but what a performance by SMU. Kevin Jennings nearly landed on the Heisman of the Week list with 365 yards, a TD pass and a TD run, and the Mustangs’ defense, much improved of late, allowed just one gain of more than 25 yards, forced Miami to go the length of the field and pounced on mistakes. A great performance in a frustrating season.
Meanwhile, because Manny Diaz is a soccer fan, I can confidently say he’ll know what I mean when I say Duke pulled an absolute smash-and-grab in Death Valley, overcoming a massive efficiency disadvantage with a kick return score and not only a 5-for-5 performance on fourth down but 29 points scored after a fourth-down conversion. The Blue Devils remain in the ACC title race, and Clemson has only about a 39% chance of bowling, per SP+.
3. Division II: No. 7 CSU-Pueblo 24, No. 6 Western Colorado 21. I love it when one of the Smaller-School Showcase games in my Friday preview lives up to its billing. Unbeaten WCU bolted to a 21-0 lead in the second quarter, but CSU-Pueblo had tied it by the end of the third quarter, with help from an 88-yard Roman Fuller-to-Marcellus Honeycutt Jr. touchdown pass. In the end, the Thunderwolves won with special teams: First, Jusiah Sampleton blocked a 47-yard field goal attempt with 4:01 left; then, after a 20-yard pass on third-and-16, Jackson Smith knocked in a 32-yarder as time expired.
4. FCS: No. 25 Abilene Christian 31, No. 2 Tarleton State 28. Tarleton State was the best FCS team not named North Dakota State heading into the weekend, and after entering the fourth quarter down 28-10, the Texans rallied to tie it with 56 seconds left. But a 38-yard pass from Stone Earle to Bryan Henry set up Brandon Perez‘s 47-yard buzzer-beater. TSU is unbeaten no more.
5. No. 5 Georgia 24, Florida 20. This game would rank higher if Georgia hadn’t been involved, but the Bulldogs have pulled the football version of the “Call the ambulance … but not for me” meme too many times, falling behind and then winning with perfect late execution. Regardless, it was a fun, tense way to spend an afternoon even if I didn’t doubt the outcome.
6 and 7. FCS: Idaho 35, Northern Arizona 32 (OT) (Friday) and Idaho State 38, No. 6 UC Davis 36. Drama in the Big Sky! On Friday night in Flagstaff, Arizona, Idaho watched a 26-7 lead turn into a 29-26 fourth-quarter deficit, but Owen Adams nailed a 42-yard field goal at the buzzer, and after forcing an overtime field goal, the Vandals walked it off with a short Hayden Kincheloe touchdown.
On Saturday in Davis, California, Idaho State, which has felt pretty close to an upset win all season, got one thanks to a 219-yard rushing performance from Dason Brooks and a 50-yard, final-minute field goal from Trajan Sinatra, the best-named kicker this side of Florida’s Trey Smack.
0:26
Trajan Sinatra makes 50-yard field goal
Trajan Sinatra makes 50-yard field goal
8. Mississippi State 38, Arkansas 35. After heartbreaking losses to Texas and Florida extended MSU’s SEC losing streak to 16 games (and more than two calendar years), it would take something special to end the streak. Like a game-ending 17-0 run, 193 penalty yards from Arkansas and a monstrous 18-yard catch and touchdown run from Anthony Evans III.
9. New Mexico 40, UNLV 35. If you watched this one as I advised, you were rewarded. New Mexico played catch-and-release, losing leads of 21-0 and 34-21, but with the game on the line, the Lobos executed a perfect, eight-play, 75-yard touchdown drive, taking the lead on a 13-yard D.J. McKinney run, then making two late stops to move to 6-2 and secure bowl eligibility. It’s hard to say enough about the job Jason Eck has done there in Year 1.
10. Division II: West Texas A&M 53, Texas A&M-Kingsville 48. There should always be room for a nutty track meet on this list, and if you missed the first eight minutes of this one, you missed (1) a 74-yard return on the opening kickoff, (2) a 26-yard touchdown on the first offensive play, (3) a sack-and-strip fumble, (4) a 99-yard kick return, (5) two turnovers on downs and (6) a 43-yard touchdown pass. West Texas A&M took a 22-6 lead from all of that, Kingsville responded with a 22-3 run to charge ahead, and we got six more lead changes from there. Goodness.
11. NAIA: No. 14 Indiana Wesleyan 56, Taylor 48.
12. No. 20 Texas 34, No. 9 Vanderbilt 31.
13. No. 18 Oklahoma 33, No. 14 Tennessee 27.
14. Oregon State 10, Washington State 7.
15. FCS: Central Connecticut 10, Long Island 7.
16. NAIA: Cumberland 40, Cumberlands 37.
17. Minnesota 23, Michigan State 20 (OT).
19. Division II: Chowan 34, Erskine 30.
20. Division III: Wesleyan 34, Williams 28 (OT).
The midweek playlist
Here’s your quick reminder that the CFP rankings are only the second-biggest landmark of the coming week. That’s right: IT’S MIDWEEK MACTION TIME. And we start with a doozy.
Miami (Ohio) at Ohio (Tuesday, 7 p.m., ESPN2). Miami has won five straight since an 0-3 start, and Ohio, the defending champ, has won four of five. The winner of this one will be your odds-on MAC favorite.
UTSA at USF (Thursday, 7:30 p.m., ESPN). USF needs to win out to keep AAC title (and playoff) hopes alive, and UTSA is coming off by far its best performance of the season.
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