Inside the night the Dodgers became back-to-back World Series champs — and Yamamoto became an L.A. legend
TORONTO — A 66-year-old man with a pierced left ear and a backward cap stood in the outfield at Rogers Centre early Sunday morning and beheld all that surrounded him. Tri-color confetti littered the turf, the videoboard in center field touted the Los Angeles Dodgers‘ latest World Series championship, and Osamu Yada — the man who made it all possible — grinned at his great fortune.
Yada Sensei, as he is known, plays a number of roles for Dodgers right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto, whose performance in Los Angeles’ 5-4 victory in Game 7 of the World Series will go down in the annals of baseball history. Yada is a biomechanist first and foremost, obsessive about how the body’s movement patterns apply force to a baseball. Beyond that, he is a philosophical guru, a bridge between the ocean-wide chasm that separates Japanese baseball, where Yamamoto formed his foundation, and American baseball, where he erected his masterwork upon it.
“He’s the person who built me,” Yamamoto said.
What Yada shaped blossomed into something mythical during an all-time great World Series that culminated with a Game 7 for the ages, requiring 11 nerve-wracking, drama-filled innings. Working on no rest after a six-inning, 96-pitch effort to set up the Dodgers for a Game 6 victory and send the series to a winner-takes-all seventh game, Yamamoto materialized from the Dodgers’ bullpen to spread 34 pitches over 2⅔ scoreless innings and secure the win that delivered Los Angeles its second consecutive championship and third in six years. All of that on the heels of Yamamoto’s complete-game triumph in Game 2, which followed a start-to-finish effort in his previous outing in the National League Championship Series.
The only other pitcher in baseball history to chase a Game 6 start with a Game 7 relief outing on zero days’ rest and emerge with victories in both was Randy Johnson in the 2001 World Series, widely regarded among the best ever. Both pitchers won World Series MVP awards, riding fastballs that neared triple digits and off-speed pitches that bedeviled the hitters hubristic enough to offer at them. The similarities end there. At 5-foot-10, Yamamoto stands a full foot shorter than Johnson, who leveraged his size into five Cy Young Awards and a first-ballot Hall of Fame induction. Yamamoto, at 170 pounds, learned through Yada to find his power from the place where body meets nature and the two coalesce harmoniously.
“Think about a tree,” Yada said. “A tree has a trunk, it has branches, it has roots. In the sports world, we tell people to move their hands this way, their feet this way, and that’s just moving the branches. The most important thing with the tree is the trunk. It can’t just be firm, either. If the trunk is hollow, then it might just snap in half easily. So you can think about what I’m doing as building a strong trunk that can stand up to strong rain and wind. There’s nothing wrong with any individual thing that’s being taught over here. It’s just that I’m trying to have a perspective of the whole, and I don’t give him any specific instruction on any individual thing. Just trying to keep an eye on the whole, the bigger vision.”
That vision registered 20/10 during this postseason, a monthlong love letter to baseball. The 2025 World Series started with the Blue Jays, seeking their first championship since 1993, dropping a nine-run inning and sending the whole of Rogers Centre into a frenzy and ended with the Dodgers salvaging their season with a game-tying home run from the unlikeliest hitter with one out in the ninth inning and going ahead with another homer in the 11th. It dispensed memorable moments like an IV drip, consistent and satiating. For Game 7 to live up to the standard set by the previous six, which included an 18-inning classic Game 3 won by the Dodgers on a walk-off home run and a star-making Game 5 by Toronto rookie right-hander Trey Yesavage, only reinforced the 121st World Series’ place among its most extolled brethren.
With their pitching running on fumes, the Dodgers had turned to Shohei Ohtani, Yamamoto’s countryman and the finest talent the game has ever seen, to start Game 7 on three days’ rest. In the third inning, Bo Bichette blasted a 442-foot, three-run home run off him, igniting the 44,713 in attendance and forcing Los Angeles into scramble mode. Things got hairy in the fourth, when Justin Wrobleski hit Andrés Giménez with an up-and-in pitch that prompted the benches and bullpens to clear. The tension intensified in the eighth, when a Max Muncy solo home run cut Los Angeles’ deficit to 4-3. And it never relented during the game’s final innings, when the Dodgers, who batted .203 and were outscored 34-26 in the series, turned to Yamamoto to play savior.
All the while, Yada remained calm, a palliative presence. While Yada says to “just think of me as a loudmouth grandpa,” he is the key that unlocked the whole of Yamamoto. During a presentation to Dodgers employees in the spring of 2024, Yamamoto’s first with the team after signing a 12-year, $325 million contract upon his departure from Nippon Professional Baseball’s Orix Buffaloes, Yada tried to explain Yamamoto’s training habits using comparisons from the world of anime. Yamamoto, he said, was like Goku in “Dragon Ball Z” or One-Punch Man, what they do and who they are indistinguishable. Yamamoto was forever seeking to harness the power of nature that takes a man and makes him something more.
“There are things that are natural in nature, and then there are things that are normal in the sports world,” Yada said. “And what I’ve been able to do is teach Yoshinobu about things that occur in the natural world. And because the general philosophies and the things that are accepted are so different when you look at it from a sporting sense, it seems like something that’s outrageous.”
IN OSAKA, JAPAN, sits a two-story building, about 1,200 square feet total, that serves as the nerve center of Yada’s operation — “Japan’s No. 1 Spiritual and Physical Strength Shop,” its website proudly states. The path to growth, the site says, is through tariki hongan (relying on other power) and jiriki hongan (self-reliance). Yada ends every post on the website with the same two sentences: “I hope you have a good day today. Don’t forget your childhood and pursue your dreams!”
Yamamoto met Yada in Osaka, where the pitcher arrived in 2017 as an 18-year-old selected in the fourth round of the NPB draft by the Buffaloes. Yada works outside the professional-baseball infrastructure in Japan and is regarded by some as an interloper. In Yamamoto, he found a willing and eager pupil. With a natural curiosity and voracious work ethic, Yamamoto’s greatest quality, Yada said, was his patience.
“Yoshinobu will say things like, ‘I want to be able to do this,’ ” Yada said. “And I’ll tell him, ‘OK, in two years you’ll be able to do that.’ And then in two years he is actually able to do that.”
Within two years of joining the Buffaloes, Yamamoto was a fixture in their rotation and atop ERA leaderboards in NPB. He won the Sawamura Award, given to the best starting pitcher in Japan, in 2021, 2022 and 2023, the first to capture three consecutive in more than 60 years. During the 2023 season, his closest friend, Yoichi Ishihara, spent the summer in Toronto to be able to tell Yamamoto what life in a major league city looked like. Yamamoto had conquered Japanese baseball and set his eyes on the big leagues.
For years, Dodgers scouts had admired him. They marveled not only at his stuff but the methods that extracted it from him. Yamamoto was the antithesis of the muscled-up, high-effort pitchers the American youth-development system churned out. He never lifted a weight under Yada’s tutelage. Instead, they focused on mobility and balance, breathing and pliability. He did handstands and threw mini-soccer balls. Yada introduced him to a featherweight javelin so light that any deviation from proper mechanical sequencing would cause it to flutter and die. Over time, Yamamoto learned to launch it great distances with a delicate touch.
“It’s easy to use one muscle at 100% output,” Yada said, “but what Yoshinobu is trying to do is to use 600 different muscles at 10% output. You can’t think about 600 things at once and throw. So it’s learning to prioritize which parts of the movement are the most important. And learning to have that conversation with yourself about where there might be imbalances and how to correct those things.
“We often talk about moving specific joints in certain ways, and when you try to approach what we’re trying to do, you always run into these conflicts between various things. The way of approaching things that way can be explained by Newtonian physics. What he’s trying to do is explained more by Eastern philosophies. And so it’s difficult to find a common language, and it’s difficult to talk about.”
Front office executives and scouts flocked to Osaka in 2023, aware that Yamamoto was likely to enter Major League Baseball’s posting system — the portal through which Japanese players are transferred to big league teams — that forthcoming winter. Yada invited officials to his headquarters to better understand the ideology that seemed so foreign.
“Watching people work at his clinic in Osaka is special,” said Galen Carr, the Dodgers’ vice president of player personnel and a fixture in international scouting. “They do things with their bodies — contortions and twisting and balance and strength — and it’s body weight, not stuff we do here. And somehow that kid throws 98 and he’s 5-10. … Maybe we can learn something from him.”
Andrew Friedman, the Dodgers president of baseball operations, wasn’t sold until he saw it himself. At the Kyocera Dome in Osaka, he watched Yamamoto long-toss from the right-field corner to home plate. Yamamoto wasn’t taking crow hops or hurling parabolic throws. “I wish someone had videoed me watching that before the game,” Friedman said, “because my mouth was agape.” Even if the list of short, slim, front-line right-handed pitchers could be counted on one hand, the Dodgers were already perfectly happy to get into the outlier business, giving Ohtani a 10-year, $700 million contract Dec. 9.
The 45-day posting window for Yamamoto had opened by then, and a bidding frenzy was underway. What started in the $175 million range quickly ascended past $200 million. The New York Mets, New York Yankees, San Francisco Giants and Philadelphia Phillies felt the same way about Yamamoto as the Dodgers. They looked past the questions of whether he was too short or his hands too small to spin a major league ball. They believed.
The shockwaves from his contract rippled with similar ferocity to Ohtani’s. At least Ohtani had dominated MLB for six years and won a pair of MVPs. Yamamoto hadn’t thrown a single big league pitch, and the Dodgers guaranteed him more money than any pitcher in the game’s history. And when he arrived at spring training flanked by a sexagenarian whose standard uniform was a blazer over a T-shirt, teammates initially side-eyed him, struggling to fathom the multitudes Yamamoto contained.
Soon enough they cherished the whole of Yamamoto. His diligence astounded them. His pitches — fastball, sinker, splitter, cutter, slider, curveball — wowed them. Yada endeared himself quickly to the rest of the pitching staff as well as former MVP Mookie Betts, all of whom learned to appreciate that behind the endless appetite for Sprite and lemonade and other break-room foodstuffs was a professor of the craft, someone set upon making Yamamoto every bit as good in MLB as he was in NPB.
“It’s the most meticulous game plan I’ve ever seen,” Dodgers right-hander Ben Casparius said. “He’s the best, purest pitcher I’ve ever seen in my life. And I don’t think it’s close.”
The ups and downs of Yamamoto’s debut season — he spent three months on the injured list with arm issues — vanished by the postseason last year, when he helped carry an injury-depleted Los Angeles to a championship. He resisted the urge to alter his training methodologies over the winter, sticking with Yada’s program and long tossing almost daily. Greatness found him this season, when he finished fourth in MLB with a 2.49 ERA over 173⅔ innings, and his back-to-back complete games in the playoffs marked the first such feat for pitchers in nearly a quarter century.
It was no surprise, then, that Yamamoto volunteered to pitch in Game 7 a day after he kept Los Angeles’ season alive. Following Game 6, Friedman received a text from Will Ireton, the team’s interpreter, that indicated Yamamoto was receiving treatment with the intention of pitching the next day. Yada indicated that Friedman need not worry about injury or effectiveness. Yamamoto’s stuff was going to be the same regardless of rest. Another text arrived Saturday morning, saying trainers were preparing Yamamoto to pitch, and one more after he played catch, affirming his ability to get meaningful outs for manager Dave Roberts.
Still, the entire conceit felt too good to be true, a self-laid trap-in-waiting. Even if Yamamoto did enter the game, how long could he go? How sore would his arm feel? As much as the Dodgers believed in Yamamoto and Yada Sensei, surely there were limits to the power of their partnership.
At 11:31 p.m., after one of the most implausible home runs in World Series history, they would learn the answer.
DURING THE ON-FIELD celebration of Los Angeles’ 3-1 victory in Game 6, teammates moshed around Miguel Rojas, who had caught a dart of a throw from Kiké Hernández to complete a game-ending double play. Amid the hugs and backslaps, Rojas felt a sharp pain in his rib area. The timing could not have been worse.
The 36-year-old Rojas spent nearly a decade in the minor leagues before debuting with the Dodgers in 2014. Los Angeles traded him to the Marlins that winter — in a deal that set Hernández back to the Dodgers — and saw him grow into a beloved utility man, the conscience of the clubhouse. He returned to Los Angeles in a January 2023 trade and spent the past three seasons as a versatile option for Roberts. He was slated to start at shortstop before Betts’ switch from outfield to the position resigned Rojas to a part-time role.
Nonetheless, Dodgers starter Tyler Glasnow said, “Miggy is the glue of our team.” He wields the microphone on team flights and bus rides. He is, Glasnow said, “the curator of s–t-talking in the best possible way.” And in Game 6, with center fielder Andy Pages in an October-long slump, Rojas — without a hit since Oct. 1 — was named the starting second baseman and No. 9 hitter, with Roberts moving super-utility man Tommy Edman to center and benching Pages.
On Friday night, the revival of that lineup for Game 7 was in question. The Dodgers went to bed believing Rojas would not be available and that they might need to replace him on the roster with outfielder Michael Conforto. Rojas woke up Saturday morning still in pain. He went to the stadium at 1:30 p.m., received “a lot of meds and injections,” he said, and tested out the rib in the batting cage. The pain was dulled enough that Rojas told Roberts he wanted to play. Roberts acceded. Rojas took another round of painkillers before first pitch and found himself at the plate in the ninth inning, with the Dodgers trailing, 4-3, and one out.
What happened next defined a Dodgers team outhit, outscored and outplayed by the Blue Jays for the majority of the series. Rojas was looking for a fastball from Toronto closer Jeff Hoffman to hit up the middle. He swung over a first-pitch slider in the dirt. Hoffman bounced a slider and fastball to move the count to 2-1 before Rojas fouled off a pair of fastballs. He stared at a slider just above the strike zone to work the count full. On the seventh pitch of the at-bat, Hoffman hung a slider. And Rojas, who in 4,159 career plate appearances has hit only 57 home runs, uncorked a swing for eternity.
Only once before had a player in Game 7 of the World Series hit a game-tying or go-ahead home run. As the ball sailed into the Blue Jays’ bullpen in left field, Rojas joined Bill Mazeroski, author of the homer that ended the 1960 World Series. The score was 4-4. The World Series that had played even for six games had reached that state in the ninth inning of its seventh.
“When he wasn’t getting his playing time, he went to the coaches and said, ‘Hey, how can I help out?’ ” Muncy said. “And he did everything that they asked him to do. He’s the ultimate team guy, and for him to get that home run to tie it up — it brings tears to my eyes just thinking about it.”
The tears of joy nearly morphed into those of sadness come the bottom of the inning. Bichette singled with one out off Dodgers starter Blake Snell, on in relief, and was pinch run for by Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Addison Barger drew a walk in a nine-pitch plate appearance. Roberts went to the mound. The bullpen door swung open. Out came Yamamoto.
“My heart was jumping out of my chest,” said Ishihara, Yamamoto’s close friend, “because I didn’t think it would actually happen.”
On his first pitch to Blue Jays catcher Alejandro Kirk, Yamamoto ripped a 93-mph splitter for a strike. Immediately it was clear Yada was correct: the quality of Yamamoto’s stuff would not be a question. His command of it, on the other hand, was tested on the next pitch, a sinker that ran inside and clipped Kirk’s hand, loading the bases for Blue Jays center fielder Daulton Varsho.
Roberts’ strategic acumen, honed over nearly 120 postseason games, went into overdrive. He inserted Pages, a better defender with a far better arm than Edman, into center field, knowing a sacrifice fly could end the World Series. He pulled the infield in. And he let Yamamoto and catcher Will Smith go to work, knowing they needed to keep the ball down in the strike zone and hopefully induce a groundball. A splitter missed low. Varsho fouled off another. He stared at a 97 mph fastball for strike two. And on a third splitter, at the bottom of the zone and away from the left-handed Varsho, he yanked a grounder toward Rojas, who reached across his body to snag it — the pain searing in his side — and made an off-balance throw home. Had Kiner-Falefa taken even a one-step secondary lead off third base, he would have been safe. He didn’t. Smith leaned to grab Rojas’ throw that just beat a sliding Kiner-Falefa for the force.
Toronto wasn’t done. Ernie Clement stepped to the plate. He already had three hits, pushing him past Randy Arozarena for tops on the single-postseason hit list with 30. And he golfed a first-pitch Yamamoto curveball into deep left-center field. Pages and Hernández converged and collided, just as the ball settled into Pages’ glove. Hernández lay face down on the warning track, convinced the ball had skittered away and the series was over. Pages asked him if he was OK. Hernández wasn’t, because he thought they’d lost the World Series. Instead, Game 7 was headed to extra innings.
Like Toronto the previous half-inning, Los Angeles loaded the bases in the 10th with one out. Pages grounded into a force play at home, and three pitches later, reliever Seranthony Dominguez fielded a flip from first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr., danced around the first-base bag and toe-tapped it just before Hernández’s foot struck. Replay review upheld the call and sent the game to the bottom of the 10th, when Yamamoto emerged from the dugout for a second inning of work. He sat down three hitters on 13 pitches and surpassed Johnson’s four relief outs the day after his Game 6 start.
With a chance to play hero again in the top of the 11th, Rojas grounded out to third and, with the pain meds wearing off, felt a twinge in his side in the process. Ohtani, so brilliant all postseason, the one hitter upon whom the Dodgers could rely, grounded out. Up stepped Smith, who entered the postseason with a hairline fracture in his right hand. Elevated to the No. 2 spot because of Betts’ struggles, Smith worked the count to 2-0 against Toronto’s Game 5 starter, Shane Bieber, like so many others cosplaying as a reliever, and got a slider that settled in the middle of the zone. He did not miss. One step out of the batter’s box, he yelled, “Go ball,” imploring it to breach the fence. The ball bounced from the bullpen into the stands. Los Angeles led, 5-4.
“I’m just hoping I got enough,” Smith said. “I knew I hit it pretty good. But we’ve hit a lot of balls hard here in this stadium that just haven’t got out. They just kind of came up a little short. So it was nice to finally get one.”
The Dodgers’ ninth championship beckoned, and Yamamoto emerged from the dugout to put the ultimate stamp on it. Pitching is about milliseconds and millimeters. Any minuscule change in timing, movement, grip and dozens of other factors runs the risk of frying a pitcher’s wiring. No such concern existed with Yamamoto, even in circumstances unfathomable to other pitchers. He is unbothered. He made himself for this moment.
“He put on his cape,” Hernández said, “and he took us to the promised land.”
A Guerrero leadoff double in the 11th, followed by a Kiner-Falefa sacrifice to get him to third with one out? It happens. A Barger walk on four splitters out of the zone? No worries. Because after getting Kirk down 0-2 on a cutter and curveball, Yamamoto unleashed a splitter — the pitch brought back into vogue by Japanese pitchers — and shattered Kirk’s bat. The ball trickled toward Betts, who scurried over to second, stepped on the bag with his left foot and flipped the ball to Freddie Freeman for the first World Series-ending double play since 1947.
“It’s about betting on players and people,” Roberts said. “There’s this narrative where people think that we’re scripting s— based on numbers, and it couldn’t be further from that. There’s a separation between the regular season, where the numbers make sense, the long view, but then when you’re trying to win 13 games, it’s about players and people and who you’re going to bet on. It’s not all about the matchups.
“I bet on Yama because I just felt there’s just something inside of his soul that I completely believed in. And even Miggy Ro in a different context, where everything says you hit for him, I just believed that he was going to do something special.”
ON THE DAY of Game 7, the Instagram page for Yada Sensei’s clinic posted three emojis of people bowing with sheepish looks on their faces. Above them was a message in Japanese thanking its patients for their patronage and informing them Yada will soon return to Osaka and that he will start taking appointments Nov. 5.
“We sincerely apologize for the inconvenience caused by our prolonged business trip,” the post said.
Describing the greatest World Series as a “prolonged business trip” encapsulates how Yada sees himself, an ethos he has passed along to Yamamoto. What the Dodgers so adore about Yamamoto is just how normal he is. For all of the novelties of his training, he is a regular dude. He loves his dog. He cracks jokes.
“He’s genuine. He’s responsible. He’s very straightforward,” Yada said. “He doesn’t lose sight of his dreams.”
Dreams are important to Yada, windows into the ethereal place where he believes athletes must go to mine the materials within. In the end, all of the Dodgers unearthed that in a season that started March 18 in Japan and ended just after midnight Nov. 2 in Canada. They won 93 games, cruised through the National League bracket and ran into a Blue Jays unit certain destiny was riding shotgun until its engine faltered. Los Angeles became the first team to win two straight World Series since the New York Yankees triumphed three straight years from 1998-2000. The Dodgers sent Clayton Kershaw, their Hall of Fame ace, into retirement with his third ring and prevented Max Scherzer, Kershaw’s nearest modern analog and Toronto’s Game 7 starter, from winning his third. Los Angeles did it with talent, and with persistence, and with $500 million-plus in salaries and taxes, every dollar spent worth it, particularly the $16 million this year that went to Yamamoto.
“For him to do three ups and hold his stuff the way he did — it was every bit as good as it was in Game 6 — is literally the most impressive thing I’ve ever seen on a Major League Baseball field,” Friedman said.
At the Dodgers’ party following the win, highlights from the night played on a screen and the high of the night never lost its sheen. Yamamoto was feted as a legend, a hero, but all that mattered, Yada said, is “he just really, really wanted to be a champion with his teammates.”
He is, for the second time, still on that path to growth, embracing tariki hongan from the 25 men surrounding him and manifesting jiriki hongan with his own will, desire, fortitude. It’s true, yes, that Yada built Yoshinobu Yamamoto into what he is today. But outrageous things take more than a sensei or a code. They take a man willing to do things others wouldn’t dare dream of.
AVONDALE, Ariz. — Kyle Larson knew he wasn’t going to catch Denny Hamlin in the final laps on Sunday, not without the sort of help that only a caution flag can bring.
Larson got his lucky break.
Hamlin only got heartbreak.
Larson is now a two-time NASCAR champion after denying Hamlin what would have been his first career title when a late caution at Phoenix Raceway sent the championship-deciding finale into overtime.
Without that caution, which came with three laps to run, Hamlin had it locked up and was ready to finally shed the label of greatest NASCAR driver to never win a championship. But fellow title contender William Byron got a flat tire and hit the wall to bring out the caution, and a few minutes later, it was over.
“Just unbelievable,” Larson said. “I cannot believe it.”
Neither could Hamlin.
“I really don’t have much for emotion right now. Just numb about it ’cause just in shock,” Hamlin said after consoling his crying daughters on pit road. “We were 40 seconds away from a championship. This sport can drive you absolutely crazy because sometimes speed, talent, none of that matters.”
When the caution for Byron came out, Hamlin led the field down pit road and got four new tires on his Toyota; Larson only took two tires on his Chevrolet. It meant Larson was fifth for the two-lap sprint to the finish, with Hamlin back in 10th.
With so little time to run down Larson, Hamlin came up short with a sixth-place finish as Larson finished third. Ryan Blaney, who was eliminated from title contention last week, won the race.
“You do have to feel for that group and Denny. Doing a good job all day, it not playing out for him. But that is racing. It sucks sometimes,” Blaney said. “They can hang their head about it, but they should be very proud about the effort. They had the fastest race car here. Just one of those things where it doesn’t work out. Looked like it was going into his favor, unfortunately for him, it didn’t.”
It is the second championship for Larson, who won his first title in 2021 when he joined Hendrick Motorsports.
As Larson celebrated, Hamlin sat in his car motionless for several seconds, then wiped his face with a white towel, never showing any emotion.
Larson, who has been in a slump since his disastrous Memorial Day attempt to race both the Indianapolis 500 and Coca-Cola 600 on the same day, was also in shock.
“We didn’t lead a lap and won the championship,” Larson said. “We had an average car at best and had the right front [tire] go down, lost a lap and got the wave around, saved by the caution with the wave around. It’s just unbelievable. What a year by this motorsports team.”
When Hamlin finally got out of his car he embraced his crew members but it was a scene of disbelief among the Joe Gibbs Racing crowd. Team members were crying, some sitting in shock on the pavement; Gibbs himself stood silent, one hand on his hip and a look of disbelief on his face.
It is the sixth shot at a title to slip away from Hamlin in his 20 years driving for Gibbs. He led 208 of the 319 laps and started from the pole.
“Nothing I could do different. I mean, prepared as good as I could coming into the weekend and my team gave me a fantastic car,” Hamlin said. “Just didn’t work out. I was just praying ‘no caution’ and we had one there. What can you do? It’s just not meant to be.”
He said crew chief Chris Gayle made the correct call with four tires, but too many others took only two, which created too big of a gap for Hamlin to close on Larson in so little time.
The 44-year-old Virginia native had been extremely jinxed in five previous championship finales, with bad luck, bad strategy and bad cars breaking his heart in 2010, 2014, 2019, 2020 and 2021. Sunday was his first time eligible in the winner-take-all race in four seasons.
Hamlin was remarkably loose and calm all week, rented three houses in Scottsdale for 30 friends and family, won the pole and then dominated Sunday’s race.
He just didn’t close it out.
“Man, if you can’t win that one, I don’t know which one you can win,” Hamlin said.
Larson was OK during the race, but hasn’t won since early May, a slump that has now extended to 24 consecutive races.
Hamlin teammate Chase Briscoe finished 18th in his debut in the championship finale, while Larson teammate Byron was 33rd after his late issue. He felt awful for ruining Hamlin’s chance even though his Hendrick Motorsports teammate won the championship.
“I’m just super bummed that it was a caution obviously. I hate that. Hate it for Denny. I hate it for the 11 team,” Byron said. “I mean, Denny was on his way to it. I hate that. There’s a lot of respect there. I obviously do not want to cause a caution. If I had known what tire it was, known that a tire was going down before I got to the corner, I would have done something different.”
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Kyle Bonagura
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Kyle Bonagura
ESPN Staff Writer
- Covers college football.
- Joined ESPN in 2014.
- Attended Washington State University.
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Mark Schlabach
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Mark Schlabach
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior college football writer
- Author of seven books on college football
- Graduate of the University of Georgia
While there was stability at the very top of the college football hierarchy in Week 10 — with Ohio State and Indiana rolling to big wins — there were plenty of surprises and consequential results further down the pecking order.
The biggest shockwaves came in the ACC, where Georgia Tech suffered its first loss of the season, Miami lost for the second week in a row and Virginia emerged in sole possession of first place. If the Cavaliers can hold on and win the ACC championship, they would be a most unlikely participant in the College Football Playoff.
As with last season’s inaugural 12-team CFP, the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, will make the field. Unlike last year, the four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds Nos. 5 through 8.
From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year’s Six bowls, with the national championship game scheduled for Jan. 19 at Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium.
All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 35-game slate of bowl games, beginning with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13.
We’re here for all of it.
ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out, and we’ll be back every week of the season until the actual matchups are set.
Jump to a section:
Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season
College Football Playoff
First-round games (at campus sites)
Friday, Dec. 19/Saturday, Dec. 20
Times and networks TBD.
Bonagura: No. 12 North Texas at No. 5 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 12 Memphis at No. 5 Georgia
Bonagura: No. 11 Virginia at No. 6 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 11 Virginia at No. 6 Ole Miss
Bonagura: No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Ole Miss
Schlabach: No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Oregon
Bonagura: No. 9 Texas Tech at No. 8 BYU
Schlabach: No. 9 Texas Tech at No. 8 BYU
First-round breakdown
Bonagura: North Texas to the playoffs? Sure, why not? After ending Navy’s undefeated season Saturday, the Mean Green are positioned as well as anyone else to win the American, which will likely result in a playoff spot. You can drum up a scenario where San Diego State gets picked from the Mountain West, but the American champion is in the driver’s seat. And picking from the league’s pool of options is tough: Navy, Memphis, North Texas, Tulane, South Florida and East Carolina all have just one conference loss. The Mean Green have been the most impressive over the past three weeks.
Georgia Tech’s loss to NC State means the ACC no longer has an undefeated team, which stands as another indicator the ACC will be a one-bid league. Is that team Virginia? The Cavaliers’ only loss of the season also came against NC State, but that was classified as a nonconference game, so they’re still undefeated in league play. Regardless, it’s hard to be optimistic about the chances any ACC team will win a first-round game.
Schlabach: It was another unpredictable Saturday in college football with three teams in the AP Top 10 falling. I’m sure we’ll see plenty of chaos over the final month of the regular season, too.
Vanderbilt’s dream season hit a road bump at Texas, as Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning threw for 328 yards with three touchdowns in a 34-31 victory. The Longhorns have won four in a row after most of us left them for dead. They’ll play at Georgia in two weeks, followed by home games against Arkansas and Texas A&M.
Georgia Tech suffered its first loss of the season in an ugly 48-36 defeat at NC State. The Wolfpack had 583 yards of offense, including 243 rushing, as Tech’s defense had no answers. The Yellow Jackets will play surging Pittsburgh and rival Georgia in their final two games, so they’ll have to get things fixed quickly.
Georgia Tech, Miami, Vanderbilt and Navy all fell out of my 12-team bracket. I replaced them with Texas Tech, Notre Dame, Virginia and Memphis.
CFP quarterfinals
Wednesday, Dec. 31
CFP quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 4 Alabama
Thursday, Jan. 1
CFP quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Alabama
Schlabach: No. 7 Oregon vs. No. 2 Indiana
CFP quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 8 BYU vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 9 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Ohio State
CFP quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
Schlabach: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
Quarterfinals breakdown
Bonagura: Half of this week’s projected quarterfinal field — Texas A&M, Alabama, Oregon and BYU — was off this weekend in what felt like a quiet one for college football. The only change for me here from last week is that Georgia Tech is gone, with BYU in its place. The Cougars travel to Texas Tech this week in what might be the most consequential conference game outside the SEC and Big Ten the rest of the way.
BYU is following a similar script to last season, when it started 8-0, only to lose twice late in the year and miss out on a trip to the Big 12 title game. Things are tight again in the Big 12, so this is as close as it gets to a must-win game for both teams.
Schlabach: My quarterfinal matchups largely remained unchanged from a week ago, although Texas Tech replaced Georgia Tech in one of the games.
The CFP selection committee members wouldn’t admit it, but hopefully they’ll tweak the final rankings to avoid the intraconference matchups in my bracket. There are all-SEC matchups in the Cotton Bowl and Sugar Bowl, and an all-Big Ten contest in the Orange Bowl.
Texas Tech and BYU are in the driver’s seat for a Big 12 title, and I’m not sure the unbeaten Cougars are getting enough love nationally. They’ve already beaten Utah and Iowa State, and they’ll have a chance to make an emphatic statement when they play the Red Raiders on Saturday.
CFP semifinals, national championship game
Thursday, Jan. 8
CFP semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Friday, Jan. 9
CFP semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Indiana
Monday, Jan. 19
CFP national championship
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 1 Ohio State
National championship breakdown
Bonagura: With Ohio State and Indiana both winning decisively, there is no reason to revisit the title game projection. They continue to look like the two best teams in college football and haven’t showed any signs of slowing down.
Schlabach: Ohio State and Indiana continued to roll this week. The Buckeyes got off to a slow start before dismantling Penn State 38-14. The Buckeyes will be heavy favorites in their next three games — a road trip to Purdue and home contests against UCLA and Rutgers — before closing the regular season at rival Michigan in the Big House on Nov. 29.
Indiana also got off to a slow start before routing Maryland 55-10 on the road. Indiana has won its past three games against Michigan State, UCLA and Maryland by a combined 120 points. It doesn’t figure to get much more difficult over the Hoosiers’ final three games against struggling Penn State (road), Wisconsin (home) and Purdue (road).
Complete bowl season schedule
Saturday, Dec. 13
Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Jackson State vs. Delaware State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. Delaware State
LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Arizona vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Arizona vs. San Diego State
Tuesday, Dec. 16
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisiana Tech vs. East Carolina
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Coastal Carolina
Wednesday, Dec. 17
StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Buffalo vs. Jacksonville State
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Old Dominion
68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Arkansas State vs. Western Michigan
Schlabach: Liberty vs. Central Michigan
Friday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: UCF vs. Marshall
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. James Madison
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: South Florida vs. Florida State
Schlabach: UConn vs. Florida State
Monday, Dec. 22
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Toledo vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Ohio vs. UNLV
Tuesday, Dec. 23
Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Southern Miss vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: Temple vs. Miami (Ohio)
New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Old Dominion
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UTSA vs. Hawai’i
Schlabach: North Texas vs. Louisiana Tech
Wednesday, Dec. 24
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Boise State vs. California
Schlabach: Hawai’i vs. Tulane
Friday, Dec. 26
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Maryland vs. Ohio
Schlabach: Maryland vs. Western Michigan
Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Baylor vs. Northwestern
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Northwestern
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Temple vs. Troy
Schlabach: Boise State vs. Iowa State
Saturday, Dec. 27
Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. Navy
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Minnesota
Schlabach: SMU vs. Minnesota
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Army
Schlabach: NC State vs. South Florida
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Miami vs. Cincinnati
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Cincinnati
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Fresno State
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: New Mexico vs. Washington State
Schlabach: New Mexico vs. Washington State
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: Louisville vs. LSU
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Vanderbilt
Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: TCU vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: Houston vs. Oklahoma
Monday, Dec. 29
JLab Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Memphis vs. James Madison
Schlabach: Troy vs. UTSA
Tuesday, Dec. 30
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Kennesaw State
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Kennesaw State
Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Illinois vs. LSU
Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Houston vs. Washington
Schlabach: Utah vs. USC
Wednesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Illinois vs. Vanderbilt
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Tennessee
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Duke vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Arizona State
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Texas
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Texas
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa vs. Utah
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. California
Friday, Jan. 2
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas vs. Navy
Schlabach: Kansas vs. Army
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Auburn
Schlabach: TCU vs. Mississippi State
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: SMU vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Duke vs. Missouri
Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. USC
Schlabach: Miami vs. Washington
-
Bill Connelly
Two top-10 teams fell on the road to unranked opponents. A third fell to a lower-ranked team. No. 5 Georgia flirted with disaster, as always, and just because nothing is allowed to make total sense in the ACC, No. 15 Virginia and No. 16 Louisville also thought hard about face-planting before rallying.
Week 10 didn’t give us quite as many absolute disasters as it could have, and the damage was mostly contained to the increasingly chaotic ACC. And with two-thirds of the 2025 college football season done, we now shift into Playoff Hyperdrive.
Let’s look back on Week 10 with help from the construct I used for the Week 10 preview: Playoff Tiers.
Updated playoff tiers
The first College Football Playoff rankings of the season come out Tuesday, and using a combination of the Allstate Playoff Predictor and odds driven by my SP+ rankings, we can pretty easily bunch teams into groups of playoff likelihood. The tiers didn’t change all that much this weekend, though conveniently, each team that lost fell into the tier below.
Tier 1
Indiana (9-0, 99.5% average playoff odds) — def. Maryland 55-10 Saturday
Ohio State (8-0, 99.3%) — def. Penn State 38-14
Texas A&M (8-0, 95.7%)
With A&M off and Indiana and Ohio State winning by a combined 93-24, nothing changed here. These are the three most likely teams to make the CFP, and while the playoff committee could overthink and try to talk itself into ranking Alabama ahead of A&M or something because of ranked wins, the Aggies deserve the edge to me, both because of their road win over Tier 3’s Notre Dame and the extremely important fact that they didn’t lose to a 4-4 Florida State team like the Tide did.
Tier 2
Ole Miss (8-1, 83.6%) — def. South Carolina 30-14
Oregon (7-1, 75.6%)
Alabama (7-1, 74.0%)
BYU (8-0, 69.3%)
Texas Tech (8-1, 68.5%) — def. Kansas State 43-20
Georgia (7-1, 54.1%) — def. Florida 24-20
With Georgia Tech’s loss to NC State on Saturday, the Yellow Jackets dropped from Tier 2 to Tier 3, but with a surprisingly comfortable road win over a smoking hot Kansas State, Texas Tech jumped from Tier 3 to 2. I’m curious how the CFP committee might view the Red Raiders, a team with eight wins by at least 23 points and a lone loss coming without starting quarterback Behren Morton. Their strength-of-schedule numbers aren’t very good, but they ace the eye test, and if “best” is supposed to matter over “most deserving,” well, they’re fourth in SP+.
Georgia, meanwhile, is uninterested in passing “eye tests.” The Bulldogs once again painted themselves into a corner, this time spotting rival Florida a 20-17 lead and letting them drive into field goal range midway through the fourth quarter. But they rallied once again, stuffing Jadan Baugh on fourth-and-1, immediately driving for a touchdown, then forcing a four-and-out and winning the game. They look impressive for about one quarter per game, but they’re 7-1 with a Tier 2 win over Ole Miss and a lone loss to Tier 2 Bama. The road still features games against Texas and Georgia Tech, however.
Tier 3
Notre Dame (6-2, 41.1%) — def. Boston College 25-10
Virginia (8-1, 37.6%) — def. California 31-21
Louisville (7-1, 37.1%) — def. Virginia Tech 28-16
Texas (7-2, 33.5%) — def. Vanderbilt 34-31
Georgia Tech (8-1, 30.2%) — lost to NC State 48-36
Tier 3 is evidently the transition tier. Of last week’s four Tier 3 teams, one moved up with a win (Texas Tech), and two moved down with losses (Miami, Vanderbilt). Meanwhile, it caught Georgia Tech on the way down and Texas on the way up. And with all the other chaos in the ACC, two one-loss teams that won as favorites Saturday (Virginia and Louisville) saw their conference title odds rise by solid amounts. They also moved up from Tier 4.
Tier 4
Oklahoma (7-2, 27.0%) — def. Tennessee 33-27
Vanderbilt (7-2, 26.8%) — lost to Texas 34-31
Utah (7-2, 24.2%) — def. Cincinnati 45-14
Miami (6-2, 17.9%) — lost to SMU 26-20
USC (6-2, 14.0%) — def. Nebraska 21-17
Washington (6-2, 13.6%)
Missouri (6-2, 10.7%)
Michigan (7-2, 10.5%) — def. Purdue 21-16
Pitt (7-2, 6.9%) — def. Stanford 35-20
Duke (5-3, 6.4%) — def. Clemson 46-45
Iowa (6-2, 6.0%)
SMU (6-3, 5.7%) — def. Miami 26-20
Oklahoma and Vanderbilt both have decent enough odds that I could have slipped them into Tier 3, but since they’ve both lost to Tier 3 Texas, and head-to-head matchups between two-loss SEC teams could matter a lot, we’ll go ahead and put them here. At this point, Tier 4 is a mix of two-loss Big Ten and SEC teams (OU, Vandy, USC, Washington, Mizzou, Michigan, Iowa), two-loss Big 12 and ACC teams that either have impressive wins (Miami) or are simply smoking hot (Utah, Pitt) and three-loss ACC teams that still have a puncher’s chance at the conference title (Duke, SMU).
Tier (Group of) 5
James Madison (7-1, 27.7%) — def. Texas State 52-20
North Texas (8-1, 26.4%) — def. Navy 31-17
Memphis (8-1, 15.9%) — def. Rice 38-14
USF (6-2, 13.9%)
San Diego State (7-1, 8.9%) — def. Wyoming 24-7
There’s still a scenario in which, say, SMU wins the ACC at 10-3 but ranks behind a pair of one-loss Group of 5 champions, and the G5 ends up with multiple bids. That said, one G5 bid is still far and away the most likely scenario, and that race remains awfully interesting. JMU impressed enough in San Marcos last Tuesday that the Dukes jumped from 50th to 36th in SP+. They aren’t going to finish with a great résumé — their most impressive performance was a loss to Louisville in which they were tied in the fourth quarter before a fumble recovery touchdown put them behind — but they look the part enough that they should feel good about their chances if they finish 12-1 to win the Sun Belt, and the American Conference champ is 11-2.
Still, it’s clear the American winner, whoever it ends up being, is most likely to score the bid even if JMU’s odds are better than any single team.
What Tuesday’s rankings should look like
For the past couple of years, I’ve been fiddling with what amounts to a BCS-ish formula, derived half from the AP poll and half from a combination of both computer power ratings (SP+ and FPI) and computer résumé ratings (Résumé SP+ and Strength of Record). With a few exceptions — Alabama over Florida State in 2023, SMU over Alabama in 2024 — it tends to adhere pretty closely to what the committee ends up deciding.
Tuesday’s rankings will be the first since the CFP committee began using “enhanced metrics to help evaluate schedule strength,” however. What does that mean in practice? I have no idea. So in anticipation of Tuesday’s release, let’s look at four rankings for the teams most likely to be ranked by the committee: 1) their AP poll ranking; 2) their ranking in this BCS-ish formula; 3) their Strength of Record ranking and 4) their Résumé SP+ ranking.
This obviously adheres pretty closely to the tiers above, but it gives us a good idea of what to look for Tuesday night. If the committee really is taking strength of schedule or strength of record further into account — and for the record, I really don’t think it needed to — then we might expect teams that are more well regarded by the computers to win some arguments. Texas A&M would definitely rank ahead of Alabama in this case, and BYU might rank higher as well. Also, two-loss Texas and Vanderbilt would likely trump one-loss Louisville and Georgia Tech.
All in all, I think the top 11 on Tuesday should end up looking almost identical to the AP poll, while the spots from No. 12 to No. 21 could end up in pretty much any order.
A hypothetical playoff simulation, because why not?
Based on where teams are most likely to rank this week (via the BCS-ish rankings above) and which teams are currently most likely to win their conferences (per SP+), here’s what I’m going to call Week 11’s playoff bracket.
9 Texas Tech at 8 BYU
Winner plays 1 Ohio State
12 North Texas at 5 Georgia
Winner plays 4 Alabama
11 Louisville at 6 Oregon
Winner plays 3 Texas A&M
10 Notre Dame at 7 Ole Miss
Winner plays 2 Indiana
We’ll see a shakeup following Week 11’s Texas Tech-BYU battle in Lubbock, but for now, this gives us Notre Dame’s first-ever trip to Oxford, a potential playoff rematch between Indiana and Notre Dame in the quarterfinals and another Alabama-Georgia playoff game (this time in the quarterfinals). Based on current SP+ rankings, it would also give us these national title odds based on 10,000 simulations:
Hypothetical title odds based on the above bracket:
1-seed Ohio State 30.6%
2-seed Indiana 28.2%
6-seed Oregon 12.4%
3-seed Texas A&M 7.4%
4-seed Alabama 6.8%
9-seed Texas Tech 5.6%
5-seed Georgia 3.0%
10-seed Notre Dame 2.4%
7-seed Ole Miss 1.7%
8-seed BYU 1.1%
11-seed Louisville 0.4%
12-seed North Texas 0.2%
And because odds alone aren’t very satisfying, I grabbed a random simulation from the batch of 10,000. Here’s what’s officially going to happen this postseason. You can stop watching now.
(Please don’t stop watching.)
FIRST ROUND
Texas Tech over BYU in Provo
Georgia over North Texas in Athens
Oregon over Louisville in Eugene
Notre Dame over Ole Miss in Oxford
QUARTERFINALS
Rose Bowl: Texas Tech over Ohio State
Sugar Bowl: Alabama over Georgia
Cotton Bowl: Texas A&M over Oregon
Orange Bowl: Indiana over Notre Dame
SEMIFINALS
Peach Bowl: Alabama over Texas Tech
Fiesta Bowl: Indiana over Texas A&M
FINALS
Indiana over Alabama in Miami
If you Google Indiana’s Curt Cignetti, as he told you to a couple of years ago, it might soon tell you that he’s a national title-winning head coach.
5 other random thoughts from Week 10
Damn, Mario. By Mario Cristobal’s standards, his late-game management against SMU wasn’t a crime against humanity or anything, but after SMU tied the game with 25 seconds left, Miami got the ball back with a timeout in hand and a quarterback Cristobal paid loads of money for … and the Hurricanes kneeled out the clock to go to overtime. Granted, Carson Beck’s dreadful overtime interception, which set up SMU’s winning touchdown, certainly didn’t help his cause, but it doesn’t matter how much money you shell out if you’re still going to play by “Three things can happen when you pass, and two are bad” rules in the 2020s.
But since Cristobal took over at Miami in 2022, his Hurricanes have lost five games as double-digit favorites; only Alabama can match that total, and (A) Bama has been a double-digit favorite 50% more often and (B) three of the Tide’s five such losses came in a small cluster of games last season. Cristobal has lost at least one such game each year that he’s been in charge. Death, taxes and Miami suffering a catastrophic loss it should have put away.
Holy (whistle) smokes (whistle), Arkansas (whistle). Generally speaking, penalties and penalty yards don’t correlate to wins and losses as much as you might think. Committing a lot of penalties can often signify that you’re properly pushing the limits from an aggressiveness standpoint, and of the 66 teams to have suffered more than 100 penalty yards in a game this season, 38 ended up winning the game.
It’s nice to know there are limits, however. Arkansas committed 18 penalties for 193 yards against Mississippi State on Saturday, the third most for any FBS team in any game over the last 10 seasons. Only Kansas (216 yards in a win over UNLV in 2023) and Northern Illinois (194 in a win over Eastern Illinois in 2017) can top that number. But while those teams still managed to win, Arkansas’ discipline ran out late. Mississippi State scored 17 points in the game’s final 11 minutes to overcome a 14-point deficit and win 38-35. If Sam Pittman hadn’t already been fired, he probably would be now. (And it probably goes without saying that interim coach Bobby Petrino hasn’t shined enough to justify hiring him full time, though I’m sure you can still find an Arkansas booster advocating for it.)
So many close SEC games. We can question whether the SEC has a team the caliber of Ohio State or Indiana this season, but we cannot question its commitment to competitiveness. The league featured six games Saturday, five were decided by one score — including both of its ranked-versus-ranked encounters — and the sixth was within one score with 12 minutes left. For the season, the league has had 43 conference games to date, with 26 decided by one touchdown or less. It’s been close enough overall that Arkansas somehow (A) ranks first in the league in points per drive in conference play and (B) is 0-5 in conference play.
Close games will define the rest of November, too. Texas A&M (5-0 in SEC play) has two road games with a projected margin of less than two points, and despite being pretty close to the finish line the Aggies have higher odds of losing two or more in November (27%) than reaching 12-0 (25%).
Alabama (5-0) has three conference games remaining, and all three are projected within single digits, two within one score. SP+ gives the Tide only a 25% chance of winning its four remaining games, with 26% odds of losing at least twice.
Georgia’s odds, meanwhile, are almost identical — the Bulldogs (5-1) have two projected one-score SEC games remaining (at Mississippi State, Texas), plus a one-score visit to Georgia Tech. The result: a 25% chance of winning out and a 30% chance of losing at least twice.
Texas (4-1) actually looked the part for most of Saturday’s win over Vanderbilt, but the Longhorns are projected underdogs in two of three remaining games (at Georgia, Texas A&M), and Arkansas is not a gimme. Odds of winning out: 15%.
Ole Miss (5-1) has the most navigable path of any major conference contender, with only Florida and Mississippi State remaining in SEC play. Odds of winning out: 54%. Then again, the Rebels lost to Florida last year, and the Egg Bowl lives for nonsense.
Colorado looks done done. Over its last two games against Utah and Arizona, Colorado was projected to lose by a combined 23.1 points. The Buffaloes instead lost by 81. Last week’s 53-7 loss to Utah was almost understandable in retrospect (the Utes just walloped Cincinnati, too), but they were equally moribund in Saturday evening’s home loss to Arizona. And based on a weighted average of recent performances (where the most recent game carries more weight), they are officially the team that is underachieving the most against current SP+ projections.
There are plenty of other teams staggering and/or falling at the moment – Syracuse, Penn State, Louisiana-Monroe, Delaware, Maryland, Texas State, Bowling Green – but CU leads the pack. And if the Buffs can’t beat West Virginia in Morgantown this coming weekend, a 3-9 finish begins to look awfully likely. Would that increase the odds of Deion Sanders stepping down at the end of the season?
DeSean Jackson was a spectacular hire. Remember in the offseason, when Norfolk State (Michael Vick) and Delaware State (DeSean Jackson) went the Deion Sanders/Eddie George route and hired celebrated former players as their head coaches? Vick was the bigger headline-grabber – he’s Michael Vick, after all – and he has struggled in year one, as you might expect from a first-time head coach. Norfolk State went 4-8 and finished 101st in FCS SP+ last season; the Spartans are just 1-8 and 115th this season. They have a couple of semi-winnable games left against Morgan State and Howard (they will likely get drubbed by N.C. Central this coming week), but it’s been a year of growing pains.
For Jackson and his Hornets, however, it’s been the exact opposite story. DSU went 1-11 and finished 123rd in SP+ last season, and they haven’t finished higher than 5-6 or 83rd over the past decade. Last Thursday’s win over Vick’s NSU, however, brought them to 6-3 and 54th overall. They’ve already upset N.C. Central, and if they can win a tossup game at home against S.C. State in Week 13, they’ll win their first MEAC title since 2007 and score their first Celebration Bowl bid. It’s looking like Jackson was one of the best hires of last offseason’s coaching carousel.
This week in SP+
The SP+ rankings are updated for the week. Let’s take a look at the teams that saw the biggest change in their overall ratings. (Note: We’re looking at ratings, not rankings.)
Moving up
Here are the 10 teams that saw their ratings rise the most this week:
Fresno State: up 3.7 adjusted points per game (ranking rose from 93rd to 78th)
East Carolina: up 3.4 points (from 61st to 48th)
Florida State: up 3.3 points (from 34th to 24th)
Louisiana Tech: up 3.3 points (from 76th to 67th)
Western Kentucky: up 3.1 points (from 88th to 72nd)
Buffalo: up 2.9 points (from 99th to 87th)
James Madison: up 2.8 points (from 50th to 36th)
Arizona: up 2.8 points (from 43rd to 31st)
UTSA: up 2.7 points (from 70th to 65th)
North Carolina: up 2.5 points (from 98th to 89th)
The ACC’s oddities didn’t stop at the games involving ranked teams. Duke’s win over Clemson was the most statistically unlikely result of the week — Duke somehow won despite a mammoth efficiency disadvantage (success rate: Clemson 58.3%, Duke 37.5%) — and in Tallahassee, Florida State somehow transferred all of its bad vibes to its opponent. Wake Forest collapsed under the weight of its mistakes and the Seminoles’ sudden excellence, and the teams basically traded seven points: FSU moved up 3.3 and, as you’ll see below, Wake moved down 3.7.
Meanwhile, this is the faintest of praise, but since bottoming out at 103rd in SP+ three weeks ago, North Carolina has rallied to 89th, suffering a pair of gut-wrenching losses and finally getting off the schneid with a thumping of quarterback-less Syracuse. The Tar Heels will have to pull at least a pair of upsets to have any hope of bowling, but improvement can be encouraging in and of itself.
Moving down
Here are the 10 teams whose ratings fell the most:
Wake Forest: down 3.7 adjusted points per game (ranking fell from 56th to 68th)
Cincinnati: down 3.5 points (from 23rd to 32nd)
Maryland: down 3.3 points (from 37th to 51st)
Georgia Tech: down 3.2 points (from 25th to 34th)
Boise State: down 3.0 points (from 47th to 55th)
Colorado: down 3.0 points (from 68th to 82nd)
UCF: down 2.9 points (from 51st to 56th)
Rutgers: down 2.5 points (from 63rd to 69th)
Sam Houston: down 2.4 points (no change from 135th)
South Carolina: down 2.4 points (from 54th to 61st)
Georgia Tech entered Week 10 as the lowest-ranked unbeaten power-conference team by a comfortable margin. After getting pushed around by NC State, the Yellow Jackets are lodged between 4-5 Auburn and James Madison in SP+.
Who won the Heisman this week?
I am once again awarding the Heisman every week of the season and doling out weekly points, F1-style (in this case, 10 points for first place, 9 for second and so on). How will this Heisman race play out, and how different will the result be from the actual Heisman voting?
Here is this week’s Heisman top 10:
1. Jeff Sims, Arizona State (13-for-24 passing for 177 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT, plus 228 non-sack rushing yards and 2 TDs against Iowa State).
2. Julian Sayin, Ohio State (20-for-23 passing for 316 yards and 4 touchdowns against Penn State).
3. CJ Bailey, NC State (24-for-32 passing for 340 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 41 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Georgia Tech).
4. Jordan Marshall, Michigan (25 carries for 185 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 25 receiving yards against Purdue).
5. Owen McCown, UTSA (31-for-33 passing for 370 yards and 4 touchdowns against Tulane).
6. Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame (17 carries for 136 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 30 receiving yards against Boston College).
7. Arch Manning, Texas (25-for-33 passing for 328 yards and 3 touchdowns against Vanderbilt).
8. Haynes King, Georgia Tech (25-for-35 passing for 408 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT, plus 113 non-sack rushing yards and 2 TDs against NC State).
9. Darian Mensah, Duke (27-for-41 passing for 361 yards and 4 touchdowns against Clemson).
10. Melkart Abou Jaoude, North Carolina (6 tackles, 2.5 TFLs, 2 sacks and 1 forced fumble against Syracuse).
Jeff Sims is the journeyman prototype for the transfer portal era. He has started 28 career games at three schools (Georgia Tech, Nebraska and Arizona State), and in those, he has produced some duds — 10 games with a Total QBR under 30.0, three under 10.0. But he has also thrown for more than 250 yards five times and rushed for 100 or more yards (not including sacks) seven times. And on Saturday in Ames, Iowa, he painted a Sims-ian masterpiece, throwing the ball reasonably well but ripping off an 88-yard touchdown run in the third quarter and nearly doubling his previous career high in rushing.
Sims is quite obviously not a Heisman contender, but one of the reasons I love this Heisman of the Week approach is that we can celebrate when guys like Sims do something beautiful. He even topped nearly perfect performances from Julian Sayin and Owen McCown and a gutsy, hobbled game from CJ Bailey.
Honorable mention:
• Luke Altmyer, Illinois (19-for-31 passing for 235 yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT, plus 95 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Rutgers).
• Alonza Barnett III, James Madison (12-for-18 passing for 264 yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT, plus 102 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Texas State).
• Tommy Castellanos, Florida State (12-for-16 passing for 271 yards and a touchdown, plus 18 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Wake Forest).
• Evan Dickens, Liberty (22 carries for 217 yards and 4 touchdowns against Delaware).
• Caleb Hawkins, North Texas (33 carries for 197 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 9 receiving yards against Navy).
• Kevin Jennings, SMU (29-for-44 passing for 365 yards and a touchdown, plus a rushing touchdown against Miami).
• Jayden Scott, NC State (24 carries for 196 yards and a touchdown, plus 11 receiving yards against Georgia Tech).
• Danny Scudero, San Jose State (7 catches for 215 yards and 2 touchdowns against Hawai’i).
Through 10 weeks, here are your points leaders. I’ve bolded the guys who are also in the top 12 in the current Heisman betting odds.
1. Ty Simpson, Alabama (29 points)
2. Taylen Green, Arkansas (27)
3T. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (25)
3T. Julian Sayin, Ohio State (25)
5. Demond Williams Jr., Washington (21)
6T. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (19)
6T. Gunner Stockton, Georgia (19)
8. Luke Altmyer, Illinois (16)
9. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt (14)
10T. Haynes King, Georgia Tech (13)
10T. Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame (13)
We might be approaching a “Winner takes the No. 1 seed, winning QB takes the Heisman” game between Sayin’s Ohio State — the current Heisman betting favorite, per ESPN BET — and Mendoza’s Indiana in the Big Ten championship game in four weeks. Simpson, Chambliss and Stockton still have clear paths to impress, however, and with Love shifting into fifth gear over the past two games (a combined 41 carries for 364 yards) he might catch voters’ eyes if he keeps ripping off 94-yard touchdown runs.
My 10 favorite games of the weekend
1 and 2. SMU 26, No. 10 Miami 20 (OT) and Duke 46, Clemson 45. Obviously, Miami was the main character in Saturday’s loss, but what a performance by SMU. Kevin Jennings nearly landed on the Heisman of the Week list with 365 yards, a TD pass and a TD run, and the Mustangs’ defense, much improved of late, allowed just one gain of more than 25 yards, forced Miami to go the length of the field and pounced on mistakes. A great performance in a frustrating season.
Meanwhile, because Manny Diaz is a soccer fan, I can confidently say he’ll know what I mean when I say Duke pulled an absolute smash-and-grab in Death Valley, overcoming a massive efficiency disadvantage with a kick return score and not only a 5-for-5 performance on fourth down but 29 points scored after a fourth-down conversion. The Blue Devils remain in the ACC title race, and Clemson has only about a 39% chance of bowling, per SP+.
3. Division II: No. 7 CSU-Pueblo 24, No. 6 Western Colorado 21. I love it when one of the Smaller-School Showcase games in my Friday preview lives up to its billing. Unbeaten WCU bolted to a 21-0 lead in the second quarter, but CSU-Pueblo had tied it by the end of the third quarter, with help from an 88-yard Roman Fuller-to-Marcellus Honeycutt Jr. touchdown pass. In the end, the Thunderwolves won with special teams: First, Jusiah Sampleton blocked a 47-yard field goal attempt with 4:01 left; then, after a 20-yard pass on third-and-16, Jackson Smith knocked in a 32-yarder as time expired.
4. FCS: No. 25 Abilene Christian 31, No. 2 Tarleton State 28. Tarleton State was the best FCS team not named North Dakota State heading into the weekend, and after entering the fourth quarter down 28-10, the Texans rallied to tie it with 56 seconds left. But a 38-yard pass from Stone Earle to Bryan Henry set up Brandon Perez‘s 47-yard buzzer-beater. TSU is unbeaten no more.
5. No. 5 Georgia 24, Florida 20. This game would rank higher if Georgia hadn’t been involved, but the Bulldogs have pulled the football version of the “Call the ambulance … but not for me” meme too many times, falling behind and then winning with perfect late execution. Regardless, it was a fun, tense way to spend an afternoon even if I didn’t doubt the outcome.
6 and 7. FCS: Idaho 35, Northern Arizona 32 (OT) (Friday) and Idaho State 38, No. 6 UC Davis 36. Drama in the Big Sky! On Friday night in Flagstaff, Arizona, Idaho watched a 26-7 lead turn into a 29-26 fourth-quarter deficit, but Owen Adams nailed a 42-yard field goal at the buzzer, and after forcing an overtime field goal, the Vandals walked it off with a short Hayden Kincheloe touchdown.
On Saturday in Davis, California, Idaho State, which has felt pretty close to an upset win all season, got one thanks to a 219-yard rushing performance from Dason Brooks and a 50-yard, final-minute field goal from Trajan Sinatra, the best-named kicker this side of Florida’s Trey Smack.
0:26
Trajan Sinatra makes 50-yard field goal
Trajan Sinatra makes 50-yard field goal
8. Mississippi State 38, Arkansas 35. After heartbreaking losses to Texas and Florida extended MSU’s SEC losing streak to 16 games (and more than two calendar years), it would take something special to end the streak. Like a game-ending 17-0 run, 193 penalty yards from Arkansas and a monstrous 18-yard catch and touchdown run from Anthony Evans III.
9. New Mexico 40, UNLV 35. If you watched this one as I advised, you were rewarded. New Mexico played catch-and-release, losing leads of 21-0 and 34-21, but with the game on the line, the Lobos executed a perfect, eight-play, 75-yard touchdown drive, taking the lead on a 13-yard D.J. McKinney run, then making two late stops to move to 6-2 and secure bowl eligibility. It’s hard to say enough about the job Jason Eck has done there in Year 1.
10. Division II: West Texas A&M 53, Texas A&M-Kingsville 48. There should always be room for a nutty track meet on this list, and if you missed the first eight minutes of this one, you missed (1) a 74-yard return on the opening kickoff, (2) a 26-yard touchdown on the first offensive play, (3) a sack-and-strip fumble, (4) a 99-yard kick return, (5) two turnovers on downs and (6) a 43-yard touchdown pass. West Texas A&M took a 22-6 lead from all of that, Kingsville responded with a 22-3 run to charge ahead, and we got six more lead changes from there. Goodness.
11. NAIA: No. 14 Indiana Wesleyan 56, Taylor 48.
12. No. 20 Texas 34, No. 9 Vanderbilt 31.
13. No. 18 Oklahoma 33, No. 14 Tennessee 27.
14. Oregon State 10, Washington State 7.
15. FCS: Central Connecticut 10, Long Island 7.
16. NAIA: Cumberland 40, Cumberlands 37.
17. Minnesota 23, Michigan State 20 (OT).
19. Division II: Chowan 34, Erskine 30.
20. Division III: Wesleyan 34, Williams 28 (OT).
The midweek playlist
Here’s your quick reminder that the CFP rankings are only the second-biggest landmark of the coming week. That’s right: IT’S MIDWEEK MACTION TIME. And we start with a doozy.
Miami (Ohio) at Ohio (Tuesday, 7 p.m., ESPN2). Miami has won five straight since an 0-3 start, and Ohio, the defending champ, has won four of five. The winner of this one will be your odds-on MAC favorite.
UTSA at USF (Thursday, 7:30 p.m., ESPN). USF needs to win out to keep AAC title (and playoff) hopes alive, and UTSA is coming off by far its best performance of the season.
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