Sir Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves have hinted at tax rises to come when the chancellor delivers the budget later this month.
In a Downing Street speech this morning, Ms Reeves will address “speculation” that an increase in income tax will be announced during the highly-anticipated statement on 26 November.
Sky News political editor Beth Rigbysaid it was “highly unusual” for the chancellor to make such a speech, but the Treasury believes she must “try to prepare the ground and make the argument for another big tax-raising budget”.
“I will make the choices necessary to deliver strong foundations for our economy – for this year, and years to come,” Ms Reeves will say.
Last night, Sir Keir gave Labour MPs a taste of what’s to come by warning of the need for “tough but fair” decisions.
Speaking at a party meeting in Westminster, he said the budget “takes place against a difficult economic backdrop”.
“It’s becoming clearer the long-term impact of Tory austerity, their botched Brexit deal and the pandemic on Britain’s productivity is worse than even we feared,” the prime minister said.
“Faced with that, we will make the tough but fair decisions to renew our country and build it for the long term.”
Starmer and Reeves know how hard this is going to be
I don’t need to tell you how difficult and contested this is going to be.
Only a year ago, the chancellor unveiled the biggest tax-raising budget since 1993 and said it was a “once in a parliament event”.
MPs will be fearing a massive backlash should manifesto promises on not raising income tax (and VAT and national insurance) for working people be broken.
Government figures know how hard it’s going to be but argue the chancellor has to level with the public about the hard choices ahead and what is driving her decision-making.
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9:49
Will Labour raise taxes?
The PM and chancellor’s warnings come after reports suggested the Office for Budget Responsibility is expected to downgrade its productivity growth forecast for the UK by about 0.3 percentage points.
That would leave Ms Reeves with a larger than expected fiscal black hole to fill, possibly up to £30bn.
The thinktank, which used to be headed by Torsten Bell, a Labour MP who is now a key aide to Ms Reeves and a pensions minister, said the move would raise vital cash while protecting working people.
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27:55
A promise-breaking budget?
Reeves to prioritise NHS and cost of living
Giving a further flavour of what to expect, Ms Reeves will this morning vow to make “important choices that will shape our economy for years to come”.
“It is important that people understand the circumstances we are facing, the principles guiding my choices – and why I believe they will be the right choices for the country,” she will add.
Ms Reeves will say her priorities are cutting national debt, easing the cost of living and protecting the NHS.
“It will be a budget led by this government’s values,” she’s set to say.
“Of fairness and opportunity and focused squarely on the priorities of the British people: protecting our NHS, reducing our national debt and improving the cost of living.”
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Rachel Reeves has refused to rule out breaking her manifesto pledge not to raise certain taxes, as she lays the groundwork ahead of the budget later this month.
Asked directly by our political editor Beth Rigby if she stands by her promises not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT, the chancellor declined to do so.
She told Rigby: “Your viewers can see the challenges that we face, the challenges that are on [sic] a global nature. And they can also see the challenges in the long-term performance of our economy.”
She went on: “As chancellor, I have to face the world as it is, not the world as I want it to be. And when challenges come our way, the only question is how to respond to them, not whether to respond or not.
“As I respond at the budget on 26 November, my focus will be on getting NHS waiting lists down, getting the cost of living down and also getting the national debt down.”
‘Each of us must do our bit’
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Ms Reeves’s comments to Rigby came after a highly unusual pre-budget speech in Downing Street in which she set out the scale of the international and domestic “challenges” facing the government.
What did Labour promise in their manifesto?
Rachel Reeves has refused to say whether she will hike taxes, but what exactly was her manifesto commitment last year?
She said: “We will ensure taxes on working people are kept as low as possible.
“Labour will not increase taxes on working people, which is why we will not increase national insurance, the basic, higher, or additional rates of income tax, or VAT.”
She also hinted at tax rises, saying: “If we are to build the future of Britain together, each of us must do our bit for the security of our country and the brightness of its future.”
Despite her promise that last year’s budget – which was the biggest tax-raising fiscal event since 1993 – was a “once in a parliament event,” the chancellor said that in the past year, “the world has thrown even more challenges our way,” pointing to “the continual threat of tariffs” from the United States, inflation that has been “too slow to come down,” “volatile” supply chains leading to higher prices, and the high cost of government borrowing.
She also put the blame squarely on previous Tory governments, accusing them of “years of economic mismanagement” that has “limited our country’s potential,” and said past administrations prioritised “political convenience” over “economic imperative”.
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3:09
Sky’s Beth Rigby said there will be ‘almighty backlash’ after budget, as chancellor failed to rule out breaking tax pledges.
Ms Reeves painted a picture of devastation following the years of austerity in the wake of the financial crisis, “instability and indecision” after that, and then the consequences of what she called “a rushed and ill-conceived Brexit”.
“This isn’t about re-litigating old choices – it’s about being honest with the people, about the consequences that those choices have had,” she said.
‘I don’t expect anyone to be satisfied with growth so far’
The chancellor defended her personal record in office so far, saying interest rates and NHS waiting lists have fallen, while investment in the UK is rising, and added: “Our growth was the fastest in the G7 in the first half of this year. I don’t expect anyone to be satisfied with growth of 1%. I am not, and I know that there is more to do.”
Amid that backdrop, Ms Reeves set out her three priorities for the budget: “Protecting our NHS, reducing our national debt, and improving the cost of living.”
Cutting inflation will also be a key aim in her announcements later this month, and “creating the conditions that [see] interest rate cuts to support economic growth and improve the cost of living”.
She rejected calls from some Labour MPs to relax her fiscal rules, reiterating that they are “ironclad,” and arguing that the national debt – which stands at £2.6trn, or 94% of GDP – must come down in order to reduce the cost of government borrowing and spend less public money on interest payments to invest in “the public services essential to both a decent society and a strong economy”.
She also put them on notice that cuts to welfare remain on the government’s agenda, despite its humiliating U-turn on cuts to personal independence payments for disabled people earlier this year, saying: “There is nothing progressive about refusing to reform a system that is leaving one in eight young people out of education or employment.”
Image: Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered a highly unusual pre-budget speech from Downing Street. Pic: PA
And the chancellor had a few words for her political opponents, saying the Tories’ plan for £47bn in cuts would have “devastating consequences for our public services,” and mocked the Reform UK leadership of Kent County Council for exploring local tax rises instead of cuts, as promised.
Concluding her speech, Ms Reeves vowed not to “repeat those mistakes” of the past by backtracking on investments, and said: “We were elected to break with the cycle of decline, and this government is determined to see that through.”
‘Reeves made all the wrong choices’
In response to her speech, Conservative shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride wrote on X that “all she’s done is confirm the fears of households and businesses – that tax rises are coming”.
He wrote: “The chancellor claims she fixed the public finances last year. If that was true, she would not be rolling the pitch for more tax rises and broken promises. The reality is, she fiddled the fiscal rules so she could borrow hundreds of billions more.
“Every time the numbers don’t add up, Reeves blames someone else. But this is about choices – and she made all the wrong ones. If Rachel Reeves had the backbone to get control of government spending – including the welfare bill – she wouldn’t need to raise taxes.”