Sam Altman, chief executive officer of OpenAI Inc., during a media tour of the Stargate AI data center in Abilene, Texas, US, on Tuesday, Sept. 23, 2025.
Kyle Grillot | Bloomberg | Getty Images
With OpenAI’s recent release of its AI browser, the historic level of capital expenditures being made in the current AI arms race may accelerate even further, if that is possible.
From the reciprocal, and some have said circular, nature of hundreds of billions in commitments in investment, tied to future chip purchases, to the extent to which GDP growth is reliant on this boom, some have said this is a bubble. A Harvard economist estimates 92% of US GDP growth in the first half of 2025 was due to investment in AI.
But much more needs to be understood about the connection between the breakneck investment in AI and the business models that underpins the entire economy: the advertising technology (Ad Tech) industrial complex.
For the past 25 years the infrastructure of the internet has been engineered to extract advertising revenue. Search Engine Marketing, the advertising business model at the core of Google, is perhaps the greatest business model of all time. Meta’s advertising business, based on engagement and attribution, is a close second. And right behind both of these is Amazon’s advertising business, powered by its position as the largest online retailer. While a smaller portion of Amazon‘s topline, its highly profitable advertising business makes up a disproportionate percentage of Amazon’s profits. So much so that nearly every major retailer has spun up their own version of retail media networks, all driving significantly to the bottom lines and market capitalization of massive companies like Walmart, Kroger, Uber (and UberEats), Doordash and many more.
In fact, these platforms have been using AI to refine their advertising business models for years, in the form of algorithmic models that powered their search and recommendation engines, and to increase engagement and better predict purchase decision, seeking an ever-greater share of all commerce, not just what is typically thought of as “advertising.” These three multi-trillion-dollar market cap companies either wholly, or substantially, derive their profits from advertising. And now they are using some portion of those historically profitable advertising revenues to fuel infrastructure investments at a level the world has not seen outside of War Time spending by governments.
But at the same time, the latest wave of AI has the potential to disrupt the very same trillions in market cap that is fueling it. AI will, without question, change how people search (Google), shop (Amazon) and are entertained (Meta). Answers delivered without clicking around the web. AI-assisted shopping. Infinite personalized content creation.
If AI represents such a potential existential risk, why are Google, Meta and Amazon such a huge part of the current arms race to invest in AI? The “moonshot” outcome of would be that achieving Artificial General Intelligence, or Super Intelligence, AI that can do anything a human can, but better, would unlock so much value that it would dwarf any investment.
But there is more immediate urgency to protect, or disrupt, the advertising business model fueling the trillions in market cap and hundreds of billions of current investment, before someone else does. While the seminal paper that launched this phase of AI, “Attention is All You Need” was written by mostly Google researchers, it was OpenAI and Microsoft, and now Grok as well, that launched the current AI arms race. And they are not remotely as dependent on the current advertising industrial complex. In fact, Sam Altman has called the feeds of the major platforms using AI to maximize advertising dollars, “the first at-scale misaligned AIs.” He is clearly stating which businesses he believes OpenAI is trying to disrupt.
What comes next?
This time is different, but it also comes with different risks. The major difference with the current fever in infrastructure investment vs the dotcom bubble of 2000, is that in large part the companies funding it are among the most profitable companies in the world. And so far, there has not been indications of cracks in the business model of advertising that is both funding their investments, and their market capitalizations (along with so many massive companies people wouldn’t think about being in the advertising business).
But if AI does disrupt, or even break, the current advertising model, the shock to the economy and markets would be far greater than most could imagine.
Google, Meta and Amazon are still best positioned to create new business models, and as mentioned, have been using AI for far longer to support their advertising business models with great success.
However, fundamentally changing the way people interface with search, commerce and content online will require just that, entirely new revenue models, maybe, hopefully, some that are aligned, that are not advertising based. But whatever the model, perhaps it is helpful to consider that the justification in AI infrastructure spending may not be to just unlock new revenue, but to protect the business models that make up a much more significant portion of the market capitalization of public companies than most people are aware.
Jensen Huang attends a reception for the 2025 Queen Elizabeth Prize for Engineering, at St James’ Palace in London, Brirain, Nov. 5, 2025.
Yui Mok | Via Reuters
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang reportedly told the Financial Times on Wednesday that “China is going to win the AI race,” only to release a notably softer statement soon after.
The prolific tech leader was speaking on the sidelines of the FT’s Future of AI Summit, where he warned that China would beat the U.S. in artificial intelligence thanks to lower energy costs and looser regulations.
The comments, which CNBC could not verify independently, would represent Huang’s starkest warning yet that the U.S. is at risk of losing its global lead in advanced AI technologies.
However, several hours after the FT published its report, Nvidia issued a separate statement from Jensen on an official X account.
“As I have long said, China is nanoseconds behind America in AI. It’s vital that America wins by racing ahead and winning developers worldwide,” he added.
Huang has long stated that the U.S. can stay ahead in the AI race if it keeps developers reliant on Nvidia’s leading AI chips — an argument the CEO has used to lobby against export restrictions on his company’s sales to China.
Following meetings with U.S. President Donald Trump in July, it seemed that Huang’s efforts had paid off, with Washington agreeing to ease some of its chip curbs.
Under the plan, Nvidia and competing AI chip company AMD had agreed to pay the U.S. government 15% of their Chinese revenues from sales of existing AI processors tailored for the market.
However, Beijing has since shut Nvidia out of the market as it conducts a national security review of its chips, with Huang stating that the firm’s market share has been reduced to zero.
It remains unclear whether China will allow any of Nvidia’s chips to return, as officials push domestic tech companies towards its domestic AI chip alternatives. However, some experts have speculated that Beijing is using Nvidia’s market access as leverage in trade negotiations or to push Washington for wider access to advanced semiconductors.
Huang was in South Korea last month, during Trump’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Highly anticipated trade talks between the two leaders did not yield any concessions from either side on chip policy.
According to The Wall Street Journal, Trump had initially sought to discuss a request by Huang to allow sales of a new generation of AI chips to China. However, top officials rallied against the idea, the Journal reported, citing anonymous current and former administration officials familiar with the matter.
Now that Nvidia’s access to China remains frozen, it appears Huang is shifting his attention to other matters he considers essential to Nvidia’s growth and the AI race.
In the interview with the FT, Huang reportedly expressed concerns that the West, including the U.S, was being held back by “cynicism” and excessive regulation — contrasting that with China’s energy subsidies aimed at lowering costs for local developers using domestic chips.
China’s Pony.ai on Thursday saw its shares drop over 12%, while rival WeRide fell nearly 8% as the autonomous driving companies began trading in Hong Kong.
Pony.ai and WeRide, which are already listed in the U.S., raised 6.71 billion Hong Kong dollars (about $860 million) and HK$2.39 billion, respectively in their initial public offerings.
The companies are striving to keep pace with larger competitors such as Baidu‘s Apollo Go in China and Alphabet‘s Waymo in the U.S. amid growing interest in autonomous technologies.
Pony.ai and WeRide, both headquartered in Guangzhou, China, stated that funds would go toward scaling efforts, and the development of Level 4 autonomous driving — a measure of driving automation that does not require human monitoring or intervention under specific environments.
WeRide CEO Tony Xu Han told CNBC that proceeds from the latest fundraising would also be used to boost the company’s artificial intelligence capabilities and data center capacity.
The listings in Hong Kong come as the companies seek to expand outside of China, where they have already begun operating fully autonomous robotaxis in some cities.
The new regions include the Middle East, Europe and Asian countries such as Singapore. They have yet to receive full approvals to operate their robotaxis in most of those regions.
In the U.S., both companies are aiming for a partnership with California-based Uber to allow them to deploy their robotaxis on the firm’s ride-hailing platform after receiving regulatory approval.
However, their U.S. plans face headwinds as earlier this year the government finalized a rule effectively banning Chinese technology in connected vehicles, including self-driving systems.
“With the uncertainty in the markets around the world and the fact that there would be intense scrutiny on a Pony or WeRide trying to enter the U.S. market, a dual listing is a lot about risk mitigation,” said Tu Le, founder and managing director at Sino Auto Insights.
He added that the listings were also an acknowledgement that it’s gonna take a lot of capital and an endorsement of a market outside the U.S. for Pony.ai and WeRide to succeed.
In U.S. trading on Wednesday, shares Pony.ai closed down about 2%, while WeRide fell 5.3%.
Hong Kong IPO shift
Pony.ai and WeRide’s competing listings highlight a recent trend of Chinese companies seeking dual listings in Hong Kong, which has been a bounce-back year for the city’s IPO market.
The companies received approval from Hong Kong regulators to dual list in mid-October.
“For the HK stock exchange, clustering the listing at the same time helps to reinforce investor perception of HK as a tech-hub for Asia-focused technology companies,” Rolf Bulk, equity research analyst at New Street Research told CNBC.
In May, Chinese battery manufacturer and technology company CATL completed a secondary listing in Hong Kong, raising $5.2 billion in the world’s largest IPO so far this year.
The growing trend emerges amid geopolitical tensions and regulatory uncertainty in the U.S.
According to New Street Research’s Bulk, the Hong Kong listings for Pony.ai and WeRide will help the companies gain access to Asia-based capital and expand their presence in China and the region.
“However, it will do nothing to advance the progress of their technology stack and regulatory approvals in Western markets. If anything, gaining approval in Western markets may be more challenging with a HK secondary listing,” he added.
The listings could also help the firms keep up with competitors such as Baidu‘s Apollo Go in China and Alphabet‘s Waymo in the U.S., which currently have larger fleets.
“Pony and WeRide are right up there among the global leaders,” said Sino Auto Insights’ Le. “WeRide has diversified their service portfolio a bit more but they both see Uber and the Middle East as two viable partners in their ability to get more pilots launched outside of China.”
“Investors should pay special attention to how their technology evolves with AI and other new tools becoming more mainstream,” Le said.
Microsoft President Brad Smith speaks at a press conference at the Representation of the State of North Rhine-Westphalia about future visions for the development and application of artificial intelligence in education in NRW in Berlin on June 4, 2025.
Soeren Stache | Picture Alliance | Getty Images
Microsoft is giving employees a way to raise concerns about the uses of its technology after controversy emerged over the company’s work in the Middle East.
An internal portal for Microsoft’s 200,000-plus workers now includes an option to request a “Trusted Technology Review,” Brad Smith, the company’s president, wrote in a memo that was disclosed in a securities filing on Wednesday. It’s designed for bringing up misgivings about the ways Microsoft builds and uses technology, he said.
“Our standard non-retaliation policy applies, and you can raise concerns anonymously,” Smith wrote.
The move comes weeks after Microsoft stopped providing some services to an Israeli defense unit. In August, The Guardian said the Israeli Defense Forces’ Unit 8200 had built a system in Microsoft’s Azure cloud for tracking Palestinians’ phone calls as part of the country’s invasion of Gaza, leading Microsoft to investigate the newspaper’s assertions.
Employees protested the company’s work with Israel, leading to firings and resignations.
Microsoft’s business has been on a tear, with its stock reaching a record last week, as OpenAI and other companies have deepened their reliance on Azure for running artificial intelligence models. Yet there’s been internal stress due to layoffs, return-to-office mandates and controversy surrounding Microsoft’s contracts.
A media report in July also described the U.S. Defense Department’s dependence on Microsoft engineers located in China.
Microsoft, which celebrated its 50th birthday in April, now sees opportunities to boost its governance.
“We are working to strengthen our existing pre-contract review process for evaluating engagements that require additional human rights due diligence,” Smith wrote.