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Police are preparing for a surge in crime if the Labour government’s plans to overhaul prison sentences go ahead – with hundreds of thousands more offences expected in a year.

Measures proposed under the Sentencing Bill, intended to ease overcrowding in prisons, include limiting the use of short prison sentences and releasing some convicted criminals earlier.

However, police chiefs are warning such measures could see up to a 6% rise in crime in the immediate aftermath, should the plans become law.

It comes as a manhunt is under way for two prisoners mistakenly released from HMP Wandsworth, including Brahim Kaddour-Cherif, a 24-year-old Algerian man and registered sex offender, and 35-year-old William Smith.

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Manhunt underway: what do we know so far?

‘It has to be properly funded’

Assistant Chief Constable Jason Devonport, who spent 18 months on secondment as a prison governor at HMP Berwyn, said forces are planning for an increase in all types of offences.

While he said community programmes to support rehabilitation “are being ramped up,” he warned officers “expect, certainly in the short term, there will be an increase of offending in the community”.

More on Crime

“I believe in the Sentencing Bill and I believe in rehabilitation,” he added, “but it has to be properly funded.”

ACC Devonport said the probation service is trying to recruit 1,500 officers a year for the next three years to manage demand, and that the rise in police-recorded crime in one year is expected to be between 4% and 6%.

In the year to June 2025, police in England and Wales recorded 6.6 million offences. A rise of 6% would then equal around 396,000 additional recorded crimes.

Gavin Stephens, chairman of the National Police Chiefs’ Council, added that officers have “all been in policing long enough to know that some of the things that help people stop offending or desist from offending are not going to be resolved by short sentences in particular”.

However, he added: “Our issue is in the short-term period of the implementation, there is a shift of demand on to policing, and we want that shift of demand on to us to be properly recognised and properly modelled… so we can have the right and appropriate resource in there to mitigate the risk to communities.”

Feeble and inept – prison release fiasco is yet another political crisis


John Craig

Jon Craig

Chief political correspondent

@joncraig

The charitable view of the latest prison release blunder that has plunged the government into another political crisis is that it’s extremely bad luck rather than an act of incompetence by ministers.

But the more we learn about the shocking details of what happened and what looks like a cynical attempt at a cover-up by the hapless David Lammy, the more the blame can be laid at the government’s door.

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Prison system at ‘breaking point,’ warns MP

In a further warning about the state of law and order in the UK, the chair of the Justice Committee has said the prison system is at “breaking point”.

Labour MP Andy Slaughter called the latest releases from HMP Wandsworth “extremely concerning,” adding: “While the day to day running of prison security and public safety are paramount, the current spate of releases in error will be repeated until the underlying failures are addressed.”

He also said evidence taken by the committee “laid bare a crisis-hit prison system, starved of investment over many years which is facing multi-faceted pressures”.

What do we know about the manhunt?

The south London prison admitted on Wednesday that Kaddour-Cherif, who sentenced for trespass with an intent to steal, was accidentally released on 29 October.

His release came just five days after the high-profile release of migrant sex offender Hadush Kebatu from HMP Chelmsford in Essex.

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Lammy refuses to say if more prisoners mistakenly released

Hours after Kaddour-Cherif’s accidental release was confirmed by the Met, Surrey Police announced it was also searching for Smith after another error by prison staff.

The 35-year-old, who was sentenced to 45 months for multiple fraud offences and goes by the name Billy, had apparently been released on Monday.

It is not yet clear why it was nearly a week between the first release at Wandsworth and the police being informed that an offender was at large.

Both mistakes follow vows by Deputy Prime Minister and Justice Secretary David Lammy that enhanced checks on prisoner releases would be introduced.

He came under fire while standing in for Sir Keir Starmer at PMQs, but sought to blame the Conservatives, saying: “In 25 years in this House, I have not witnessed a more shameful spectacle frankly than what the party opposite left in our justice system.”

Read more from Sky News:
Nearly 40,000 freed early to tackle prison overcrowding
How many prisoners are released by mistake?
Driver hits several people on holiday island

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Lammy has ‘egg on his face’, former prison governor says

In response to concerns of a spike in crime should the Sentencing Bill become law, a Ministry of Justice spokesperson said the government “inherited a prison system in crisis, days away from running out of space”.

“Public safety will always be our top priority, and we are building 14,000 more prison places to keep dangerous offenders locked up,” they added.

“Offenders released face strict licence conditions, and we are increasing the probation budget by an extra £700 million over the next three years and investing in new technology to reduce admin, so staff can focus on work that reduces reoffending.”

And in response to the manhunt for the two released convicts, a spokesperson said: “Releases in error have been increasing for several years and are another symptom of a justice system crisis inherited by this government.”

They added: “We are clear that these mistakes must not continue to happen.”

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Labour accused of ‘scandalous attempt to subvert democracy’

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Four mayoral elections to be postponed - as Labour accused of 'scandalous attempt to subvert democracy'

Four mayoral elections due to take place in May 2026 are set to be postponed by two years, Sky News understands.

Elections for the new mayoralties of Essex, Hampshire and the Solent, Sussex and Brighton, and Norfolk and Suffolk will be pushed back until 2028.

The decision, first revealed by The Sun, is due to be announced by ministers today.

This is the second time elections are being delayed in these areas. Local elections due in May 2025 were delayed by then communities secretary Angela Rayner for a year in order to convert them into combined authorities led by mayors.

However, it is understood that these councils need more time to complete their reorganisation.

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Will Tories and Reform unite?

The news has sparked accusations Labour are delaying the elections for political purposes.

Reform UK’s head of policy Zia Yusuf said: “This is a blatant attempt to stop big Reform wins next May.

“It’s an act of a desperate government who are clinging onto power by any means necessary.

“Labour has proven time and time again that they’re not beyond denying democracy to millions of people in order to maintain their cosy status quo.”

Pic: PA
Image:
Pic: PA

The Tories’ shadow housing secretary James Cleverly said it was a “scandalous attempt to subvert democracy by a Labour government whose credibility and popularity are already in tatters”.

“The Conservatives firmly oppose this decision to delay the mayoral elections, especially when candidates have been selected and campaigning is well under way,” he added.

“Democracy is being denied yet again after the council elections cancelled by Labour this year.

“There is no credible justification for this move. The Labour government must reverse it immediately.”

Read more:
Tory-Reform pact talks ‘not happening at any level’
Reeves hit by Labour rebellion

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Starmer denies misleading voters

The reorganisation is part of Labour’s manifesto commitment to widen devolution, which it argues will improve local economies.

The government wants to abolish the two-tier system of county and district councils and merge them together to create larger unitary authorities. It also wants more areas to have regional mayors, like Greater Manchester’s Andy Burnham.

Reform UK enjoyed success in the local elections in May, winning more than 600 seats and taking control of 10 councils stretching from Kent to County Durham. The party also toppled a 14,000-strong Labour majority in a parliamentary by-election.

The Liberal Democrats’ local government spokesperson Zoe Franklin called the postponed elections “a disgrace”.

“Democracy delayed is democracy denied,” she added. “We are fighting to end this blatant stitch up between Labour and the Conservatives over local elections.”

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Reeves between a rook and a hard place after claims she ‘made up’ chess championship

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Reeves between a rook and a hard place after claims she 'made up' chess championship

As an opening gambit at PMQs, Kemi Badenoch attacked Labour’s knight, the prime minister, over his Treasury queen, Rachel Reeves.

“We now know the black hole was fake, the chancellor’s book was fake, her CV was fake – even her chess claims are made up,” said the Tory leader.

Politics Live: Labour MP who voted against inheritance tax suspended

“She doesn’t belong in the Treasury; she belongs in la-la land.”

Chess claims made up? Where did that attacking move from Kemi come from? Hasn’t the chancellor told us for years that she was a national chess champion in 1993?

Indeed she has. “I am – I was – a geek. I played chess. I was the British girls’ under-14 champion,” she declared proudly in a 2023 interview with The Guardian.

She posted a video showing her playing chess in parliament and before last week’s budget posed for photos with a chessboard.

More on Rachel Reeves

But her chess champion claim has been disputed by a former junior champion, Alex Edmans, who has accused her of misrepresenting her credentials.

“Her claim was quite specific,” Edmans, now a professor of finance at the London Business School, told Ali Fortescue on the Politics Hub on Sky News.

“She said she was the British girls’ under-14 champion. There was one event that can go on that title, which is the British Championship. And in the year that she claimed, it was Emily Howard who won that title instead.

“She did indeed win a quite different title. There was a British Women’s Chess Association championship, but that’s a more minor title. I’ve won titles like the British squad title, but that’s not the same.

“Just like running a marathon in London is not the same as the London Marathon, there was one event which is very prestigious, which is the British Championship.

“So the dispute is not whether she was a good or bad chess player. That shouldn’t be the criterion for a chancellor. But if you weren’t the British champion, you shouldn’t make that statement.”

Read more from Sky News:
Mysterious tentacles wash up on Scottish beach
Australia’s under-16s social media ban

Oh dear! So now, along with allegations of plagiarism, a dodgy CV and “lying” – according to Ms Badenoch – about the nation’s finances, the chancellor is between a rook and a hard place.

Or is she? “This story is absolute nonsense,” a Treasury mate told Sky News. No word from the No.10 knight, Sir Keir Starmer, or his Downing Street ranks, however.

Emily Howard, as it happens, is now an accomplished composer, having graduated from the chessboard to the keyboard.

The chancellor’s opponents, meanwhile, claim her budget blunders means the Treasury queen has now become a pawn, there for the taking.

But since Rachel Reeves did indeed win a chess title, just not the one she claimed, her supporters insist she can justifiably claim to have been a champion.

So it’s too soon for Kemi Badenoch and the Conservatives to claim checkmate. The dispute remains a stalemate. For now.

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Connecticut orders Robinhood, Crypto.com, Kalshi to stop prediction markets

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Connecticut orders Robinhood, Crypto.com, Kalshi to stop prediction markets

The US state of Connecticut has hit Robinhood, Kalshi and Crypto.com with cease and desist orders, accusing the platforms of offering unlicensed sports betting through event contracts.

The Connecticut Department of Consumer Protection sent letters to the three platforms on Wednesday, claiming they were “conducting unlicensed online gambling, more specifically sports wagering,” with event contracts available online.

“None of these entities possess a license to offer wagering in our state, and even if they did, their contracts violate numerous other state laws and policies, including offering wagers to individuals under the age of 21,” said DCP Commissioner Bryan Cafferelli.

DCP Gaming Director Kris Gilman accused the platforms of “deceptively advertising that their services are legal,” adding that they operate outside of the state’s regulatory environment, “posing a serious risk to consumers who may not realize that wagers placed on these illegal platforms offer no protections for their money or information.”

Prediction markets have come under legal scrutiny in several US states, as the use of these platforms has skyrocketed this year and attracted billions of dollars in investment for allowing users to bet on the outcome of a variety of events.

Prediction markets saw huge volumes in November. Source: Token Terminal 

Kalshi fires back in court

A Kalshi spokesperson told Cointelegraph that it is “a regulated, nationwide exchange for real-world events, and it is subject to exclusive federal jurisdiction.

“It’s very different from what state-regulated sportsbooks and casinos offer their customers. We are confident in our legal arguments and have filed suit in federal court,” Kalshi added.

In a complaint filed on Wednesday against the DCP, Kalshi claimed that “Connecticut’s attempt to regulate Kalshi intrudes upon the federal regulatory framework that Congress established for regulating derivatives on designated exchanges.”

It added that its platform was subject to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s “exclusive jurisdiction” and its sports event contracts “are lawful under federal law.”

“As we’ve previously shared, Robinhood’s event contracts are federally regulated by the CFTC and offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, a CFTC-registered entity, allowing retail customers to access prediction markets in a safe, compliant, and regulated manner,” a Robinhood spokesperson told Cointelegraph.

Crypto.com did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

In its statement, Connecticut’s DCP said that prediction market platforms pose serious risks to consumers because they lack the required technical standards and security protections for financial and personal data.

Source: Connecticut Department of Consumer Protection

The agency claimed that such platforms also lack integrity controls to prevent insider betting or manipulation, operate without regulatory oversight of their payout rules, advertise to self-excluded gamblers and on college campuses, and permit betting on events with known outcomes, thereby giving insiders unfair advantages.

Related: Polymarket opens US app to waitlisted users after CFTC green light

Only three platforms are legally licensed for sports wagering in Connecticut: DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics, all of which require users to be at least 21 years old.

Kalshi under fire in at least 10 US states

Connecticut is not the only state to take a hard stance on prediction platforms; regulators in two neighboring states have previously taken action. 

New York sent a cease and desist to Kalshi in late October, and the company responded on Oct. 27 by suing the state. Meanwhile, the Massachusetts state attorney general sued Kalshi in the state court in September.