Reflecting sunlight into space could ‘buy time’ against global warming – but experts warn of ‘rogue nations’ risk
Reducing the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth could take the edge off global warming and limit the damage caused by climate change, according to Britain’s leading scientific body.
But the Royal Society has warned that strategies aimed at bringing about these changes are not without risk.
The society, which sparked the scientific revolution in the 17th century, said in a new report that bold new technology for reflecting sunlight back into space could “buy time” for cuts in fossil fuel emissions to take effect.
It said two strategies – pumping reflective particles high in the atmosphere and spraying salt into clouds over the sea to make them whiter – are likely to be effective, as well as technically feasible.
But the report’s authors warn a rogue nation going alone, and attempting to dim sunlight in one region, could cause extreme droughts and other weather disturbances elsewhere in the world.
Professor Keith Shine, chair of the report’s working group, said there could nevertheless be a time when world leaders agree that solar radiation modification (SRM) is the least worst option.
“This is not a question of whether SRM is safe, as it is clearly not without risks,” he said.
“However, there may come a point where those risks are seen to be less severe than the risks of insufficiently mitigated climate change.”
The report said global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions look increasingly unlikely to stop global temperatures rising above 1.5C, considered by many scientists to be a “safe” limit.
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A new round of UN climate talks will start later this week in Brazil, but under current policies, temperatures are likely to be at least 3C warmer than pre-industrial times by 2100.
The working group ranked stratospheric aerosol injection as the most promising option for dimming the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth’s surface.
Planes would fly at high altitude, releasing sulphur dioxide gas, which would form particles that reflect a small amount of sunlight.
There is real-world evidence that this could work. The 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo, a volcano in the Philippines, pumped 15 million tonnes of sulphur dioxide into the stratosphere, reducing the temperature by 0.5C for one to two years.
Computer models suggest that releasing eight to 16 million tonnes of the gas from planes each year across both the northern and southern hemispheres could reduce the global temperature by 1C.
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The likely cost would be “in the low 10s of billions of dollars a year”, said Prof Shine.
That’s far less than the global cost of more extreme weather, wildfires, and other climate impacts.
Hurricane Melissa, which was made more intense by global warming, cost up to $52bn (£39.9bn) in damage and economic losses across the western Caribbean, according to AccuWeather.
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The Royal Society’s report warns that SRM would not tackle the root cause of climate change, and is not an alternative to reducing emissions.
But it could reduce temperatures while carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere peak and begin to fall. It could mean SRM would need to be deployed for 100 years or more.
Storm Bram has been named by the Irish weather service – with warnings for strong winds and heavy rain issued for parts of the UK and Ireland.
More than half a month’s rainfall could hit some parts of the UK in just a 24-hour period, the Met Office has warned.
Parts of Scotland are also facing a “danger to life” warning due to the “very strong” winds on Tuesday.
Yellow and orange warnings are in place across Ireland today and tomorrow, with “very strong to gale force” winds forecast on Tuesday.
Check the forecast for your area
The Met Office said strong winds forecast from Monday evening through until Wednesday could cause disruption, with gusts of 50-60mph predicted widely and 70-80mph in some places.
A yellow weather warning for rain comes into force from 6pm on Monday, and will be in place until 2pm on Tuesday, covering parts of southwest England and Wales, and stretching to parts of Herefordshire and Hampshire.
The Met Office has also issued a yellow warning for high winds from Dorset to Cornwall and up to north Wales, in place from 10pm on Monday until 4pm on Tuesday.
It said transport networks could face disruption, with delays for high-sided vehicles on exposed routes and bridges, and coastal roads and seafronts affected by spray and large waves. Power outages are also possible.
For 24 hours from 6pm on Monday, up to 40mm of rain could fall in some areas, with 60-80mm of rain over Dartmoor and high ground in South Wales, which would amount to more than half the average monthly rainfall in December.
The predicted rainfall across southwest England and South Wales is expected to hit already saturated ground and could lead to difficult travel conditions.
An amber warning for wind has been issued for northwest Scotland on Tuesday, from 4pm until the end of the day.
Flying debris “could result in a danger to life” – and there could be damage to buildings and homes along with the risk of roofs being “blown off” due to the “very strong and disruptive winds”, the Met Office warned.
Forecasters added there was the potential for large waves and beach material “being thrown” across sea fronts, roads and properties.
There are also further yellow warnings for wind and rain on Tuesday across Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales and northern England.
Weather warnings issued for Tuesday. Pic: Met Office
Yellow warnings for wind have been issued for Scotland and parts of northern England on Wednesday.
The Met Office’s deputy chief meteorologist, Steven Keates, said: “A deepening area of low pressure will approach the UK from the southwest later on Monday, bringing with it heavy rain and strong winds, which are likely to affect the UK between late Monday and early Wednesday.
“The exact track, depth and timings of this low are uncertain, which makes it harder to determine where will be most impacted by strong winds and/or heavy rain.
“This system has the potential to cause disruption, and severe weather warnings are likely to be issued over the weekend as details become clearer. We therefore urge people to keep up-to-date with the latest Met Office forecast.”
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Sky News meteorologist Dr Christopher England warned many areas could face disruption from “damaging gusts”.
“There could also be ferry disruption and that even outside the warning areas, potentially damaging gusts of over 50mph are possible,” he said.
“It only takes one tree falling in the wrong place at the wrong time to have a significant impact.”
The Met Office said the rest of the month remained unsettled, with further periods of low pressure predicted.
It said it is too early to provide an accurate forecast for the Christmas period.
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