Police are preparing for a surge in crime if the government’s plans to overhaul prison sentences go ahead – with hundreds of thousands more offences expected in a year.

Measures proposed under the Sentencing Bill, intended to ease overcrowding in prisons, include limiting the use of short sentences and releasing some criminals earlier.

However, police chiefs are warning such measures could see up to a 6% rise in crime in the immediate aftermath, should the plans become law.

It comes as a manhunt is under way for two prisoners mistakenly released from HMP Wandsworth, including Brahim Kaddour-Cherif, a 24-year-old Algerian man and registered sex offender, and 35-year-old William Smith.

‘It has to be properly funded’

Assistant Chief Constable Jason Devonport, who spent 18 months on secondment as a governor at HMP Berwyn, said forces are planning for an increase in all types of offences.

While he said community programmes to support rehabilitation “are being ramped up,” he warned officers “expect, certainly in the short term, there will be an increase of offending in the community”.

“I believe in the Sentencing Bill and I believe in rehabilitation,” he added, “but it has to be properly funded.”

ACC Devonport said the probation service is trying to recruit 1,500 officers a year for the next three years to manage demand, and that the rise in police-recorded crime in one year is expected to be between 4% and 6%.

In the year to June 2025, police in England and Wales recorded 6.6 million offences. A rise of 6% would then equal around 396,000 additional recorded crimes.

Gavin Stephens, chairman of the National Police Chiefs’ Council, added that officers have “all been in policing long enough to know that some of the things that help people stop offending or desist from offending are not going to be resolved by short sentences in particular”.

However, he added: “Our issue is in the short-term period of the implementation, there is a shift of demand on to policing, and we want that shift of demand on to us to be properly recognised and properly modelled… so we can have the right and appropriate resource in there to mitigate the risk to communities.”

Feeble and inept – prison release fiasco is yet another political crisis

Jon Craig

Chief political correspondent

@joncraig

The charitable view of the latest prison release blunder that has plunged the government into another political crisis is that it’s extremely bad luck rather than an act of incompetence by ministers.

But the more we learn about the shocking details of what happened and what looks like a cynical attempt at a cover-up by the hapless David Lammy, the more the blame can be laid at the government’s door.

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More mistaken releases inevitable, MP warns

In a further warning about the state of law and order in the UK, the chair of the Justice Committee has said the prison system is at “breaking point”.

Labour MP Andy Slaughter called the latest mistaken releases “extremely concerning,” adding: “While the day to day running of prison security and public safety are paramount, the current spate of releases in error will be repeated until the underlying failures are addressed.”

He also said evidence taken by the committee “laid bare a crisis-hit prison system, starved of investment over many years which is facing multi-faceted pressures”.

What do we know about the manhunt?

HMP Wandsworth admitted on Wednesday that Kaddour-Cherif, sentenced for trespass with an intent to steal, was accidentally released on 29 October.

His release came just five days after the high-profile release of migrant sex offender Hadush Kebatu from HMP Chelmsford in Essex.

Hours after Kaddour-Cherif’s accidental release was confirmed by the Met, Surrey Police announced it was also searching for Smith after another error by prison staff.

The 35-year-old, who was sentenced to 45 months for multiple fraud offences and goes by the name Billy, had apparently been released on Monday.

It is not yet clear why it was nearly a week between the first release at Wandsworth and the police being informed that an offender was at large.

Both mistakes follow vows by Deputy Prime Minister and Justice Secretary David Lammy that enhanced checks on prisoner releases would be introduced.

He came under fire while standing in for Sir Keir Starmer at PMQs, but sought to blame the Conservatives, saying: “In 25 years in this House, I have not witnessed a more shameful spectacle frankly than what the party opposite left in our justice system.”

News of Kaddour-Cherif’s release broke as PMQs was ending, and a comment released on Mr Lammy’s behalf said he was “absolutely outraged” about it.

He had been repeatedly asked whether any more asylum seekers had been mistakenly released from jail since the Kebatu case, and refused to answer.

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In response to concerns of a spike in crime should the Sentencing Bill become law, a Ministry of Justice spokesperson said the government “inherited a prison system in crisis, days away from running out of space”.

“Public safety will always be our top priority, and we are building 14,000 more prison places to keep dangerous offenders locked up,” they added.

“Offenders released face strict licence conditions, and we are increasing the probation budget by an extra £700 million over the next three years and investing in new technology to reduce admin, so staff can focus on work that reduces reoffending.”

And in response to the manhunt for the two released convicts, a spokesperson said: “Releases in error have been increasing for several years and are another symptom of a justice system crisis inherited by this government.”

They added: “We are clear that these mistakes must not continue to happen.”

Prince William has praised environmental innovators as the “world’s true action heroes”, describing them as the role models we need “in these uncertain times” at his Earthshot awards in Rio.

Joined on stage by four young people from Brazil at his annual ceremony, William explained his motivation to set up the prize, saying of the finalists: “Their stories are the inspiration that gives us courage.”

“And there’s a great deal we can learn from their determination and their vision for scale,” he added.

“As well as their unyielding belief that we can create a better world. It’s no exaggeration to say that they are the world’s true action heroes.”

For the fifth year of his environmental prize, which sees five innovators or entrepreneurs awarded £1m each, he was joined by singers Kylie Minogue and Shawn Mendes performing at the ceremony.

Speaking to Sky News ahead of her performance, Kylie hailed the awards as an “incredible initiative”.

“I’m really excited to see everyone,” she told Sky News. “There’s amazing people doing incredible things, so it’s good to be here.”

‘When we unite, we are unstoppable’

While the awards have been his focus for the first three days of his trip to Brazil, he will travel to Belem tomorrow for COP30, the UN’s climate conference.

Acknowledging the sense of pessimism around the climate debate, exacerbated by recent global turbulence he said: “I understand some might feel discouraged in these uncertain times.

“I understand there is still so much to be done. But this is no time for complacency, and the optimism I felt in 2020 remains ardent today.”

In a call to action, he added: “The issues that continue to face our world are a threat to all of us, but when we unite, our momentum is unstoppable.”

He then called on the young people, part of the Mini COP programme, to tell the audience their hopes for the future.

Earlier in the day, the prince had spoken at another Earthshot event about how he does everything he can to reassure his own children that the planet will be looked after.

The spectacular show, also featuring some of Brazil’s biggest stars, was designed to hook in a global and multigenerational audience.

Fortunately for Prince William and his team, it also hasn’t been overshadowed this week by any significant new developments or revelations about his uncle Andrew, who only a week ago was stripped of his remaining honours and titles, and it was announced he would also be moving out of his home Royal Lodge on the Windsor estate.

Expensive, noisy and eight years late, but the British Army finally has a new armoured fighting vehicle that troops could deploy to Ukraine in the event of any peace deal.

The nearly £10m Ajax – weighing more than 40 tonnes – is as heavy as a Russian tank and potentially vulnerable to cheap Russian drones.

Yet it is being billed by the UK as a “next generation” fighting machine, equipped with cameras, protective armour and a 40mm gun, with bullets that can rip through concrete.

Luke Pollard, the defence procurement minister, talked up the fleet’s potential while acknowledging that the £5.5bn procurement has had its issues.

This includes excessive noise and vibrations coming from the vehicles that left 17 soldiers requiring treatment for hearing loss.

“It is an incredible platform. It has got the ability to perform tasks that its predecessors could not,” the minister said, having just gone for a spin in an Ajax during a visit to a General Dynamics factory in Merthyr Tydfil, South Wales, where the vehicles are being assembled.

“After all the problems it may have had in the past, we have put those to bed now.”

The Ministry of Defence on Thursday declared what is known as initial operating capability for Ajax has been met.

It defined this as the ability to deploy a squadron of 27 vehicles on operations from a pool of 50. The total number of delivered Ajax vehicles is 165.

They come in six variants, with the main type designed for reconnaissance and fighting.

The army has ordered a total of 589 of the various models, which it expects to receive by 2030.

Launched more than a decade and a half ago, the Ajax programme was meant to achieve its initial operating milestone in 2017, but this date has been repeatedly pushed back.

The most serious delay occurred when testing was paused after soldiers suffered hearing and other injuries because of loud noise and vibrations coming from the vehicles.

It is why anyone who uses Ajax today must wear specially secured hearing protection.

So, what’s it like?

Sky News was among a group of journalists that were invited to ride around on one of the vehicles at a test track on the factory grounds.

The vehicle is very loud – though soldiers said this would not impact its ability to conduct its primary mission of reconnaissance.

They said Ajax is fitted with clever cameras and sensors that can spot a target up to five miles (eight kilometres) away.

However, there is clearly the potential for enemy drones to detect the Ajax in return if it were pushing towards enemy territory in a warzone like Ukraine.

The vehicle’s armour is designed to protect against such a threat. But officials said the fleet has yet to be fitted with electronic countermeasures, even though this kind of equipment is fundamental for any operation in Ukraine to help jam enemy drones.

When could it be deployed to Ukraine?

The UK, France and a coalition of more than 30 allies have pledged to deploy to Ukraine to help secure the peace if Kyiv and Moscow agree to some kind of ceasefire – a goal Donald Trump has been trying to achieve, but one that seems vanishingly unlikely for now.

However, Mr Pollard signalled that Ajax could be in the mix of any British offering to the mission.

“We’re not yet setting out precisely what capabilities we would deploy to Ukraine in the event of peace, largely because we don’t know when that peace will come, and we keep our military units at a state of readiness, and we rotate through them,” he told Sky News.

“But when we have the ability to deploy incredibly capable platforms like Ajax and the brilliant men and women trained to use it to its fullest effect.

“There’s a clear opportunity for us to be able to enhance NATO’s capabilities on the eastern flank and any coalition of the willing deployment potentially in the future.”

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Lance Corporal of Horse Andrew Rawlinson, 32, of the Household Cavalry Regiment, who is an Ajax commander, said he would be happy to deploy to Ukraine if asked.

“The squadron that I work in, they’re all good to go,” he said.

“We’ve been training on it now non-stop pretty much for a good two years to get to the IOC [initial operating capability] level and I think everyone’s content, knows their jobs and would be happy to roll out.”

Asked whether Russia should be worried, he said: “Yeah, sure.”