Sizing up BYU-Texas Tech, A&M-Mizzou, Oregon-Iowa and 25 other key showdowns
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Bill Connelly
The stakes are officially set. We know what the College Football Playoff committee thinks of all the requisite contenders — we know that Oregon could be in trouble with another loss, that Notre Dame is in excellent shape and that the ACC probably is getting only one team in (which is all it deserves). Now it’s time to see how this all plays out.
Week 11 should be a delight. We get a battle of top-10s in Lubbock and a bigger-than-expected upset attempt in Iowa City. The SEC’s top two teams, though safe in the playoff race, face unique tests. The ACC and American Conference races might gain some clarity, and they might grow even sloppier.
What shifts will we see and where? Here’s everything you need to follow in a rather off-the-beaten-path Week 11.
The biggest game in Lubbock in 17 years
No. 7 BYU at No. 8 Texas Tech (noon, ABC)
For just the fifth time in history, a top-10 Texas Tech team will host a top-10 opponent on Saturday. The Red Raiders lost two such games back in the 1970s, but they won a pair in 2008. You probably remember at least one of them.
That’s the last time “College GameDay” was in town. It’ll be there Saturday. Hell yeah.
In this moment, with the Big Ten and SEC attempting to further distance themselves from the rest of the sport in terms of both money and power, BYU and Texas Tech in particular are trying to disrupt the party a bit. BYU was testing the boundaries of NIL possibilities right after NIL became a thing and is milking a large and monied fan base to solid effect in both football and basketball. Texas Tech, meanwhile, has the most famous NIL billionaire in the game running television commercials and openly questioning the judgment of the sport’s most powerful individuals.
Oh yeah, and both teams are awesome this season. Despite starting a true freshman quarterback, BYU is playing the most mature ball in the Big 12. The Cougars don’t always start games well, but they finish them strong, especially on the road — they ended on a 31-3 run against Iowa State and 24-7 against Colorado, and they scored late and then won in overtime at Arizona. They know that 60 minutes is a long time, they’re brilliant in the turnover, third-down and red zone departments on defense, and the offense gets both efficiency from the running game and big plays from receivers Chase Roberts and Parker Kingston. And Bear Bachmeier, the aforementioned freshman QB, is up to 18th in Total QBR, ahead of former BYU starter Jake Retzlaff (now at Tulane), among others. Since a Week 2 semi-dud against Stanford, he ranks 11th.
I wouldn’t advise leaving things ’til late against Texas Tech, however, as the Red Raiders might have put the game away by then. Their eight wins have come by an average of 34 points, and their only loss, a last-second defeat at Arizona State, came without quarterback Behren Morton, who is listed as probable for Saturday.
This is a fascinating test for Bachmeier. Inexperience can strike when it’s least desirable, and if it’s going to hit Bachmeier, it will probably be in Lubbock, facing a unique and hostile crowd and a unique and hostile defense. The Red Raiders have forced 20 turnovers (second nationally) and three-and-outs on 44% of possessions (fifth). David Bailey and Romello Height have combined for 17.5 sacks, and Jacob Rodriguez is the best linebacker in the country. They rank in the top 20 in sack rate while rarely blitzing.
Bachmeier’s supporting cast is strong, with an experienced line, Roberts and Kingston out wide and running back LJ Martin next to him in the backfield. Some freshmen might get on the field because of certain elite traits, but they’re usually forced to learn how to overcome obvious weaknesses. For Bachmeier, his elite trait is his lack of obvious weaknesses.
Bachmeier’s accuracy is perhaps merely average — as represented by CPOE (completion rate over expected) in the chart above — but his well-roundedness is startling for a first-year guy. Against an elite Utah defense, he was able to grind out success, averaging only 6.6 yards per dropback but throwing no picks and rushing nine times for 71 yards and a rugged, game-clinching 22-yard touchdown on third-and-11. But here comes an even bigger test. Meanwhile, the BYU defense will have to cope with a balanced and explosive offense featuring two high-end running backs (Cameron Dickey and J’Koby Williams) and a diverse receiving corps with five players between 21 and 41 receptions.
The winner of this one will head into the season’s homestretch with quite a bit of margin for error in the CFP hunt; the loser, however, will be right on the border. At 16th in SP+, BYU has what appears to be its best team since the glorious 2020 team that went 11-1 and ranked fourth. But this might be Tech’s best team ever. Four Red Raiders teams have finished in the SP+ top 10 — 1954, 2005, 2008 and 2009 (here’s your regular reminder that Mike Leach was a fantastic head coach) — but not one finished higher than eighth. Tech is currently fourth, and that’s with the ASU game dragging it down. The upside is immense, and Saturday, Lubbock will be the center of the college football universe.
Current line: Tech -10.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 9.7 | FPI projection: Tech by 2.7
A sloppy track in Iowa City
No. 9 Oregon at No. 20 Iowa (3:30 p.m., CBS)
The current weather forecast for Iowa City on Saturday afternoon is sloppy: Temperature in the low-to-mid-40s, 90% chance of rain. That’s some serious Iowa November weather, though come to think of it, it’s pretty Oregon, too, isn’t it?
Tuesday’s CFP rankings revealed some vulnerability for Dan Lanning’s Ducks. They’re awesome on paper (third in both SP+ and FPI), but they’ve played only two SP+ top-50 teams and lost to their only top-tier opponent (Indiana). One of the things that makes me uneasy about the way we discuss strength of schedule is that we seemingly treat it as a choice — Oregon chose to play a weak schedule, therefore the Ducks don’t deserve to rank as high even though they’re clearly very good. It’s not their fault preseason No. 2 Penn State face-planted after losing to the Ducks, just as it’s not their fault that Oklahoma State, a nonconference opponent scheduled years ago when the Cowboys were consistently excellent, has become one of the worst power conference teams in recent history.
Regardless, Oregon is where it is, and the Ducks have a tricky homestretch, with ranked Iowa, USC and Washington teams to come. Iowa has been underrated all season — the Hawkeyes are still somehow unranked in the AP poll despite suffering losses only in an early-season rivalry game against Iowa State (when ISU was soaring) and by five points to an Indiana team that has beaten everyone else by double digits. They’re 17th in SP+, sixth on defense, and their offense is good at all the things that Iowa always wants to be good at but very much wasn’t between 2021 and 2023: rushing (11th in rushing success rate*), penalty avoidance (fewest penalty yards), turnover avoidance (fifth-fewest turnovers) and short yardage (second in third-and-short success rate).
(* Success rate: how frequently an offense is generating 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third and fourth.)
They’re as reliant as ever on the run, but how they run is wonderfully unpredictable.
Here’s how to interpret that chart: Bigger dots mean higher frequency, and lighter dots mean higher efficiency. The dots are pretty much the same size, and the efficiency levels are solid across the board.
Now, once the Hawkeyes are behind schedule, they’re toast. But they’re averaging 2.56 points per drive; their best average in the past 20 years was 2.36 in 2008. That’s been more than enough for the typically awesome Iowa defense to take control. Ends Max Llewellyn and Ethan Hurkett are spicy pass rushers, and the secondary gets the requisite ball-hawking from corners TJ Hall and Deshaun Lee and slot corner Zach Lutmer.
Of course, Oregon hasn’t shown us many weaknesses beyond an inability to beat a thus-far unbeatable Indiana team. Quarterback Dante Moore and the offense struggled against Indiana’s elite defense but have otherwise averaged 44.3 points and 7.8 yards per play. Edge rusher Teitum Tuioti and the Oregon defense struggled against Indiana’s elite offense but have otherwise allowed just 11.1 points and 3.9 yards per play.
We haven’t gotten a nice, big upset at Kinnick Stadium in a little while. Iowa hasn’t hosted a top-10 team since 2022 (Michigan) and hasn’t beaten one at home since 2021 (Penn State). Oregon is awesome, but this should be quite the challenge. And in challenging conditions, no less.
Current line: Oregon -6.5 | SP+ projection: Oregon by 7.5 | FPI projection: Oregon by 5.1.
Will a top SEC team go down?
The SEC’s race isn’t as messy as the ACC’s or American’s, but we still have five teams pretty heavily involved: Per SP+, Alabama has a 33.2% title chance, followed by Texas A&M (30.1%), Georgia (16.1%), Ole Miss (11.3%) and Texas (7.8%).
The two front-runners are in excellent shape playoff-wise, but they have work to do this weekend. A&M visits Missouri — a team that had its own realistic CFP ambitions before losing quarterback Beau Pribula to injury two weeks ago — while Bama is a single-digit favorite against suddenly mysterious LSU.
No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 22 Missouri (3:30 p.m., ABC)
Coaches and old-school commentators love telling you how important it is for an offense to stay on schedule. But unlike old-school views on things like fourth-down attempts or the dangers of passing, this is correct. Efficiency is vital in college football; it’s one of the reasons success rate is one of the key pieces of my SP+ ratings.
Staying on schedule might be just about all that matters in Columbia on Saturday. If we break things into standard downs (first downs, second-and-7 or less, third- or fourth-and-4 or less) and passing downs (everything else), we see why pretty quickly.
When A&M has the ball
Standard downs success rate: A&M offense first (58.2%), Mizzou defense fifth (37.7%)
Passing downs success rate: A&M offense 88th (27.5%); Mizzou defense sixth (21.5%)
A&M is elite on standard downs. The Aggies’ running game is quite efficient, and quarterback Marcel Reed averages 9.7 yards per dropback on standard downs, completing 69% of his passes at 14.4 yards per completion and scrambling for nearly 10 yards a pop too.
Reed averages only 6.4 yards per dropback on passing downs, however, while his interception rate nearly doubles and his sack rate triples. Mizzou’s defense is sixth nationally in success rate allowed, and the Tigers generate pressure on 44% of dropbacks. Reed is elusive, but if Mizzou leverages the Aggies behind schedule, they’ll make a lot of stops.
That’s good, because they’ll be giving a true freshman quarterback (Matt Zollers) his first career start against an aggressive A&M defense.
When Mizzou has the ball
Standard downs success rate: Mizzou offense 28th (51.9%), A&M defense 28th (43.2%)
Passing downs success rate: Mizzou offense 15th (37.7%), A&M defense ninth (22.1%)
A&M’s defense is vicious on passing downs. Led primarily by Missouri native Cashius Howell and Dayon Hayes, the Aggies rank second in sack rate. Nothing can rattle a freshman QB faster than constant pressure, so Mizzou has to hope that the combination of backs Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts in the running game and a quick passing game — albeit one that might be without tight end Brett Norfleet (listed as questionable) — can keep Zollers in favorable situations. He was a top-100 prospect, and he threw the ball pretty well filling in against Vanderbilt, but his passing has been mostly short and controlled.
That’s a tight radius of completions. At one point or another, Zollers will be asked to make tough throws to the sideline; if he can’t, A&M will crowd the box and make life awfully difficult.
Current line: A&M -6.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 1.2 | FPI projection: A&M by 1.4
LSU at No. 4 Alabama (7:30 p.m., ABC)
In 2022, future Heisman winner Jayden Daniels outdueled former Heisman winner Bryce Young, and LSU knocked off No. 6 Alabama in overtime. With that result, the Tigers won the SEC West in Brian Kelly’s first season in charge and reignited one of the defining rivalries of the 2010s.
Three years later, Kelly has been fired. He lost his last two Bama games by a combined 43 points, and he lost six of his last 14 games overall. His teams were never bad or even mediocre — unlike another Nick Saban-beating head coach who was recently fired (Auburn’s Hugh Freeze) — but he set the highest possible bar for himself and didn’t clear it. Interim coach Frank Wilson and the Tigers now are left looking to spoil a season or two down the stretch.
They’re still talented enough to do it. The LSU defense, fatigued from carrying a disappointing offense and suffering in the absence of star linebacker Whit Weeks, collapsed in Kelly’s final two games. But it’s still talented, and Weeks has been upgraded to questionable. The offense, now coordinated by former Florida State OC Alex Atkins, could benefit from the element of surprise, not to mention a week of rest for consistently battered quarterback Garrett Nussmeier. If the Tigers land some early haymakers, this could get weird.
Of course, at this point Bama is used to facing stiff challenges. They’ve defeated four ranked opponents, and they’re 3-0 in one-score finishes. Quarterback Ty Simpson remains a major Heisman contender, injured receiver Ryan Williams is listed as probable, and the Tide probably will be ready for a fight.
Current line: Bama -9.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 8.7 | FPI projection: Bama by 9.9
ACC contenders try to avoid potholes
After last week’s ACC chaos, SP+ currently gives six teams a fighting chance at the conference crown: Louisville (28.0%), Virginia (25.6%), Georgia Tech (16.7%), Duke (11.3%), Pitt (8.4%) and SMU (8.0%). Even Miami is still at 2.0%.
This week doesn’t give us any head-to-head matchups between these contenders, but while Duke is off gallivanting with UConn in nonconference play, Pitt is on bye and Miami and Louisville are significant favorites, two contenders face semi-interesting tests.
Wake Forest at No. 14 Virginia (7 p.m., ESPN)
Wake Forest had won three straight games before last week, but the Demon Deacons visited Florida State, absorbed all of the Seminoles’ bad mojo and laid a spectacular egg in a 42-7 loss. Every play seemed to feature miscommunication or a massive individual error.
Any remaining game in which that version of Wake shows up is an automatic loss, but the pre-FSU version could threaten a Virginia team that has flirted with disaster for weeks. The Cavaliers are 8-1 and the vice-favorite in the ACC, but they’ve won their past five games by an average of 4.8 points, three in overtime. They’re just 43rd in SP+.
Wake’s all-or-nothing offense has been mostly nothing of late, scoring 20 combined points in two games, but UVA’s secondary is vulnerable to “alls,” and receiver Chris Barnes is a solid downfield threat. You’re watching this for the other matchup, though. UVA’s offense and Wake’s defense are fun and explosive. The Hoos’ offensive line could struggle with an active Wake front — the Deacs are seventh in stuff rate and third in pressure rate — but backs J’Mari Taylor and Harrison Waylee are excellent after contact, and quarterback Chandler Morris is one of the best in the nation at escaping pressure and getting rid of the ball. UVA is only 53rd in success rate but bumps up to 16th on third downs. Morris has been a godsend, and he and the Hoos tend to come through late.
Current line: UVA -6.5 | SP+ projection: UVA by 9.9 | FPI projection: UVA by 8.6
SMU at Boston College (noon, ACCN)
SMU just worked its way back into the ACC race with its upset of Miami; surely the Mustangs wouldn’t turn around and blow it against 1-8 Boston College, right? Probably not. But it’s worth noting that BC has overachieved against SP+ projections by at least 12 points in back-to-back games, giving both Louisville and Notre Dame more resistance than expected. This is a long trip and an early kick, and if SMU doesn’t bring a certain level of energy, things could get awkward.
SMU’s offense has struggled at times, but the defense has surged despite a growing injury list. BC’s Bill O’Brien has lost faith in quarterback Dylan Lonergan, and though backup Grayson James usually offers more with his legs, he’s even less efficient passing, and he has been battling a hip pointer.
This is a just-in-case watch: BC could make it interesting, but it’s not incredibly likely.
Current line: SMU -11.5 | SP+ projection: SMU by 16.2 | FPI projection: SMU by 11.0
The Group of 5 game of the week
Tulane at Memphis (Friday, 9 p.m., ESPN)
While one-loss James Madison and San Diego State lurk, the American Conference champ will be very well positioned to snag the Group of 5’s guaranteed CFP slot. There are currently six American teams with one conference loss; Memphis is one of them, as are each of the Tigers’ last three opponents — Tulane, East Carolina and Navy. This is a tricky homestretch, especially with quarterback Brendon Lewis‘ status uncertain after he suffered another lower-body injury against Rice. Backup AJ Hill was good late against UAB after Lewis exited, but this isn’t a great time to deal with QB uncertainty. Without accounting for Lewis, SP+ still gives the Tigers only a 32% chance of winning these next three games.
But Tulane’s recent form has to give the Tigers hope. After close calls a couple of times, the Green Wave finally found it with last week’s blowout loss at UTSA. After being as high as 38th in SP+, they’ve fallen to 66th, and while Jake Retzlaff and the passing game remain strong, the run game is inconsistent and the defense was lit up for 48 points and 7.6 yards per play in San Antonio.
Retzlaff should be able to find some success, but Tulane’s poor defense will have to make stops at some point, and Memphis’ skill corps is deep and diverse, with Sutton Smith and Greg Desrosiers Jr. in the backfield and big-play receivers Cortez Braham Jr. and Jamari Hawkins out wide.
Current line: Memphis -3.5 (down from -6.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Memphis by 13.3 | FPI projection: Memphis by 6.2
Week 11 chaos superfecta
We’re once again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. And thanks to NC State’s win over Georgia Tech, we jumped back up to .500 (5-5) last week.
In the immortal words of Lou Brown in “Major League,” if we win today, it’s called two in a row. If we win again tomorrow, it’s called a winning streak. SP+ says there’s only a 42% chance that Virginia (73% win probability against Wake Forest), James Madison (80% against Marshall), SMU (84% against Boston College) and USC (86% against Northwestern) all win. Let’s take down a playoff (or at least ACC title) contender.
Week 11 playlist
Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday evening
Northwestern at No. 19 USC (9 p.m., Fox). USC’s playoff hopes might have remained alive because of an injury; the Trojans were trailing Nebraska 14-6 when Dylan Raiola went down and they rallied to a 21-17 win. Now they host a Northwestern team that lost to Raiola’s Huskers by seven the week before. Northwestern games feature no big plays for either team, and the Wildcats are built to muck this one up for a bit.
Current line: USC -14.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 17.5 | FPI projection: USC by 17.5
Early Saturday
No. 5 Georgia at Mississippi State (noon, ESPN). Mississippi State finally ended a two-year SEC losing streak and has been playing competitive ball with no elite traits but few grave weaknesses. Since this is a Georgia game, though, we can probably just stop the analysis there and assume that the Bulldogs trail late and win anyway. It’s a thing they like to do.
Current line: UGA -9.5 (up from -7.5) | SP+ projection: UGA by 7.1 | FPI projection: UGA by 8.7
No. 2 Indiana at Penn State (noon, Fox). Penn State became only the second team to hit 14 points against Ohio State last week, but the Nittany Lions’ defense succumbed to the Buckeyes’ big plays. Now comes another top-two opponent; outside of two SP+ top-20 opponents, Indiana has beaten mortals by an average of 53-9, and PSU looks awfully mortal. Will it matter that IU’s injury list is growing?
Current line: Indiana -14.5 | SP+ projection: Indiana by 12.0 | FPI projection: Indiana by 10.9
No. 1 Ohio State at Purdue (noon, BTN). Purdue has massively improved this season, but thanks to three recent one-score losses, the Boilermakers have lost seven in a row and are going to be significant underdogs in each of their last three games. Ohio State actually had to get a little aggressive against Penn State but looked great doing so. That probably says bad things about this matchup.
Current line: Buckeyes -30.5 (up from -28.5) | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by 29.3 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 29.1
James Madison at Marshall (noon, ESPN2). JMU has shifted into fifth gear of late, scoring 115 points and gaining 1,135 yards in its past two games to charge up the CFP contenders list. But the Dukes’ defense has grown a bit leaky, and Marshall has averaged 41 points over its past six games. Quarterback Carlos Del Rio-Wilson and the Herd are capable of throwing JMU’s playoff hopes for a loop.
Current line: JMU -13.5 | SP+ projection: JMU by 13.4 | FPI projection: JMU by 8.6
Southern Miss at Arkansas State (noon, ESPNU). Remember last year, when Charles Huff won the Sun Belt title with Marshall, then took the Southern Miss job and took a quarter of his roster with him? Well, his Golden Thundering Herd Eagles have won four games in a row to move to 6-2. ASU has also won four in a row, and the winner of this one will be a huge favorite to win the Sun Belt West.
Current line: USM -4.5 | SP+ projection: USM by 6.5 | FPI projection: USM by 2.8
Saturday afternoon
Auburn at No. 16 Vanderbilt (4 p.m., SECN). LSU isn’t the only SEC team hoping for an interim boost, as DJ Durkin takes over at Auburn. The Tigers still defend beautifully — 11th in defensive SP+ — but Vandy is averaging 23.3 points against top-15 defenses. Can Auburn score that much against any defense with a pulse at this point?
Current line: Vandy -6.5 | SP+ projection: Vandy by 8.7 | FPI projection: Vandy by 5.7
Iowa State at TCU (3:30 p.m., Fox). Iowa State has lost four straight, but three were by one score and the other was tied in the fourth quarter. TCU has won two straight to get to 6-2, but both were also by one score. The records don’t tell the whole tale here, but TCU’s run defense will probably render ISU inefficient, and quarterback Josh Hoover should find success against a tattered Cyclones secondary.
Current line: TCU -6.5 | SP+ projection: TCU by 4.0 | FPI projection: TCU by 4.3
Kansas at Arizona (3:30 p.m., ESPN2). Both of these teams rebounded from 1-3 stretches with comfortable wins last week, and both are a win from bowl eligibility after missing out last season. This one should be decided when KU’s Jalon Daniels drops back to pass: He remains efficient, but Arizona ranks fifth nationally in yards allowed per dropback. Fun matchup there.
Current line: Arizona -5.5 | SP+ projection: Arizona by 8.2 | FPI projection: Arizona by 3.5
No. 23 Washington at Wisconsin (4:30 p.m., BTN). Wisconsin plays its sixth game against an SP+ top-25 team, with two more to come. Washington puts up huge points against any less-than-elite defense, and Wisconsin isn’t elite at a damn thing. The Huskies are 6-2 and have a good chance to be 9-2 with win-and-you’re-in playoff hopes when Oregon visits for Rivalry Week.
Current line: Huskies -10.5 | SP+ projection: Huskies by 18.4 | FPI projection: Huskies by 6.2
Stanford at North Carolina (4:30 p.m., The CW). UNC is overachieving against SP+ projections by two touchdowns per game over the past three. The key to the Heels’ turnaround? A defense that has turned good against the run and fantastic against the pass. Pass rusher Melkart Abou Jaoude is smoking hot and will probably get to know Stanford quarterback Ben Gulbranson awfully well.
Current line: UNC -7.5 | SP+ projection: UNC by 9.5 | FPI projection: UNC by 3.0
Duke at UConn (3:30 p.m., CBSSN). UConn has played ACC teams as if it were auditioning for a spot in the league, walloping BC and going to overtime with pre-collapse Syracuse. The Huskies make a ton of big plays, and Duke gives up just as many, so for the Blue Devils to avoid a nonconference upset they’ll have to take full advantage of a shaky UConn run front and a soft pass defense.
Current line: Duke -9.5 | SP+ projection: Duke by 0.8 | FPI projection: Duke by 6.1
Syracuse at No. 18 Miami (3:30 p.m., ESPN). Miami has underachieved its offensive projections by 6.2 points per game over its past five; a total lack of big plays has removed the possibility of easy points, and Carson Beck‘s interception-prone tendencies (six in his past three games) have become a problem. Will any of this matter Saturday? Nope. Syracuse’s offense is 12 steps beyond terrible at this point.
Current line: Miami -28.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 27.6 | FPI projection: Miami by 26.8
Saturday evening
Florida State at Clemson (7 p.m., ACCN). Under Mike Norvell, FSU has struggled to course-correct when the vibes go south, but beating a solid Wake team by 35 might have offered quite the correction. Will there be a correction for Clemson this season? The odds of the 3-5 Tigers reaching even 6-6 this season are down to 39%, per SP+, and that number would plummet with a fifth home loss. Fifth!
Current line: Clemson -2.5 | SP+ projection: FSU by 2.9 | FPI projection: FSU by 0.8
California at No. 15 Louisville (7 p.m., ESPN2). Cal has done a nice job of taking advantage of a weak schedule, but the Golden Bears have lost to three SP+ top-50 opponents by an average of 37-14, and at 23rd in SP+, Louisville is by far the best team they’ve faced. That probably doesn’t bode well, though with star back Isaac Brown injured, the Cardinals might not take full advantage of Cal’s dreadful run defense.
Current line: Louisville -20.5 | SP+ projection: Louisville by 20.1 | FPI projection: Louisville by 18.6
Navy at No. 10 Notre Dame (7:30 p.m., NBC). Notre Dame has won its past six games by an average score of 39-15. The Irish meet an equally torrid Pitt next week, but first they must handle an all-or-nothing Navy team that moves the ball as well as ever but ranks 103rd in points allowed per drive. You can run into trouble against the Midshipmen, but it’s hard to shake the memory of last year’s 51-14 blowout.
Current line: Irish -25.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 17.7 | FPI projection: Irish by 27.2
Late Saturday
Nebraska at UCLA (9 p.m., Fox). I’ve almost never seen a disagreement between spread and SP+ projection as big as the one below. Dylan Raiola’s season-ending injury is the reason for the variance, but exactly how many points is a starting quarterback worth? Freshman backup TJ Lateef was a deer in headlights filling in against USC, but if he’s merely composed, Nebraska’s defense is good enough to make this a dogfight.
Current line: UCLA -2.5 | SP+ projection: Nebraska by 13.1 | FPI projection: Nebraska by 4.7
San Diego State at Hawai’i (11 p.m., MW App). SDSU keeps creeping along as a playoff sleeper, having won six straight games by an average of 29-7. The Aztecs are second nationally in both points allowed per drive and yards allowed per play, but when Micah Alejado is dealing, Hawaii is a handful. When Alejado throws for 300-plus, the Rainbow Warriors score 30-plus.
Current line: SDSU -6.5 | SP+ projection: SDSU by 10.9 | FPI projection: SDSU by 3.4
Smaller-school showcase
Let’s once again save a shout-out for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track.
FCS: No. 1 North Dakota State at No. 15 North Dakota (2 p.m., ESPN+). We have a pair of big in-state rivalry games in the Missouri Valley this week. Reeling South Dakota State desperately needs a win at No. 25 South Dakota, but one state up, North Dakota is looking for just its second Nickel Trophy win over NDSU in 20 years. (Granted, the rivals have played only six times in that span.) An upset would supercharge the Fighting Hawks’ playoff résumé, but we’ll see if any FCS team is capable of beating an absurdly dominant North Dakota State team that has let only one opponent stay within 17 points.
SP+ projection: NDSU by 12.5
Division III: No. 10 Wisconsin-La Crosse at No. 8 Wisconsin-River Falls (2 p.m., WIAC Network). First, the Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference had a six-way tie at 2-1. Then four 3-1 teams paired off last week. And now, last week’s winners, both 4-1, pair off again. It has been a logistically perfect WIAC race, and now we get an upstart — UWRF, which hasn’t won an outright conference title in 40 years and destroyed longtime heavyweight Wisconsin-Whitewater last week — hosting the 2023 WIAC champ with two games to play.
SP+ projection: UWRF by 6.0
FCS: No. 14 Southeastern Louisiana at No. 18 Lamar (4 p.m., ESPN+). Consider me surprised that Southeastern Louisiana is only 14th in the FCS polls. Dual quarterbacks Carson Camp (better passer) and Kyle Lowe (better runner) and the Lions have lost only to Louisiana Tech and LSU and have beaten seven FCS opponents by an average of 47-12. Lamar is 7-2 itself and does something rare in the Southland: defend. But SLU is the favorite for a reason.
SP+ projection: SLU by 9.0
LAS VEGAS — Center William Karlsson sustained an apparent injury at the end of the first period of the Vegas Golden Knights ‘ 4-3 loss to the Anaheim Ducks on Saturday night.
How he was injured was unclear. Karlsson didn’t leave the ice with any noticeable ailment, but did not return for the second period.
He set up the game’s first goal with an outstanding pass behind the net to Brett Howden.
Karlsson has four goals and three assists this season. He had back-to-back 50-point seasons, but had 29 in 53 games last year, twice sidelined because of injuries.
The Knights rallied with two third-period goals to force the extra session, but Anaheim defenseman Jacob Trouba ended it with an overtime goal on an assist from Leo Carlsson.
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David Hale
The Big Ten has a lot going for it. It has the sport’s richest TV contract. It has three teams in the top 10. It is the sport’s chief exporter of cheese, beef and punts. What is often missing from Big Ten games, however, is drama.
It’s not that the Big Ten doesn’t have good games, necessarily. It’s just the drama often feels more “Masterpiece Theater” than “Alien vs. Predator” — a slow burn built upon subtle character studies and power run games. Like a 20-year cheddar, it’s made for refined tastes.
But every so often, the Big Ten offers a surprise. We’ll spend a Saturday wallowing in another defensive stalemate, poised to invest in one of those eye-opening contraptions from “A Clockwork Orange” just to stay awake, and then suddenly Indiana–Penn State becomes something utterly unexpected, like Bret Bielema taking off his hoodie to reveal a giant tattoo of Barry Alvarez astride a unicorn with lightning bolts shooting from his eyes. It’s surprising, disturbing and strangely beautiful.
On Saturday, the Big Ten delivered not just one of those unexpected classics, but two.
No. 2 Indiana was on the brink of disaster until Fernando Mendoza took the Hoosiers on another trip down the field for a game winner.
No. 9 Oregon toyed with becoming the latest victim of Kirk Ferentz’s uncanny ability to drag every offense in the country into a vat of quicksand until Dante Moore chipped away at Iowa‘s blockade to set up a game-winning kick.
Each game turned in the final minutes, only to reverse course and deliver another shocking twist.
Saturday, the Big Ten was the savior of a lackluster Week 11 slate, as two of its best teams peered into the abyss and, seeing only the horrifying visage of Purdue Pete, pulled back from the brink to salvage playoff hopes and deliver enough adrenaline to increase the average Iowa fan’s health insurance premiums.
There had been little happiness in Happy Valley of late. Penn State had lost five straight entering Saturday’s game with Indiana. It had fired its coach. The seasonal flavors at Berkey Creamery were just OK. Before halftime, a contingent of bros had already removed their shirts, a sure sign of desperation in trying times.
The shirts are off in Happy Valley pic.twitter.com/46zxAeaxHX
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 8, 2025
But as Penn State roared back from a 20-7 third-quarter deficit to breathe life into a now raucous crowd, all the demons of the 2025 season felt as if they might be exorcised, and the Nittany Lions might do something that had long felt impossible by knocking off a top-five team. Nicholas Singleton‘s 19-yard touchdown grab with 6:27 to go put Penn State up by four, and by the time Indiana got the ball with 1:51 to play, there was almost an air of certainty that the tide had finally turned for the Nittany Lions.
But if the powers that be can take Penn State away from James Franklin, they can’t take the James Franklin out of Penn State, and a win over a top-five team would not come so easily. The Big Ten, after all, isn’t like the grand opening of a Bass Pro Shop. There are rules here, and one of them is that Penn State cannot have nice things.
Mendoza completed passes of 22, 12, 29 and 17, dashing through the Penn State defense like it was security at the Louvre, ultimately delivering a 7-yard touchdown throw to Omar Cooper Jr. in the back of the end zone. Cooper’s grab, which warrants strong consideration for catch of the year, saved the Hoosiers from humiliation, silenced the Penn State crowd, kept Indiana on course for a trip to the Big Ten championship and got Gus Johnson dropped from his health insurance coverage.
INDIANA TAKES THE LEAD WITH 36 SECONDS LEFT 💥💥 @IndianaFootball
📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/zxaJYUDUoA
— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) November 8, 2025
Meanwhile, Oregon arrived in Iowa to find weather that could best be described as a circle of hell that Dante’s editors cut from his rough draft, deeming it “too on the nose,” and a Hawkeyes defense that was equally as unpleasant.
Iowa did what it does best. It ran the ball 43 times for a meager 101 yards. It stymied Moore, who entered the final drive of the game having thrown for just 65 yards. The Ducks were stifled deep in Iowa territory again and again.
What couldn’t have been anticipated was a late Iowa touchdown drive of 93 yards on 12 plays, forcing grizzled old Hawkeyes fans to turn to their grandchildren and mutter, “These eyes have never seen such beauty.” Given that the sun had already been blotted, this constituted an uncomfortable number of signs of an impending apocalypse being checked off the list.
But Oregon wasn’t going to go down that easily. Moore dinked and dunked his way down the field, driving to the Iowa 21 before stalling. Oregon sent in kicker Atticus Sappington, who put on hold his quest to regain his rightful title as the 3rd Earl of Huntingdon, to attempt the game winner. Sappington used his cravat, wiped a smudge off his monocle, gently tapped his pipe on his arm chair, then strode onto the field to boot a 39-yard field goal to secure an 18-16 win.
Ultimately, the Big Ten’s drama did little more than restore order on what might’ve been a day of utter chaos, leading the ACC to quizzically ask, “Wait, you can do that?” The twists and turns still left us in the same place we started, with three teams from the league all but assured a place in the College Football Playoff. It was a Saturday that still saw another Ohio State blowout, a Wisconsin win over Washington that was only slightly more palatable than performing your own appendectomy, and a Rutgers–Maryland matchup that will be used by the CIA to extract information from suspected spies in the future. They can’t all be winners.
But for one Saturday, at least, the Big Ten was the center of the college football universe, the lone purveyor of suspense on a day that desperately needed a dose of excitement.
And if the outcome of all that drama amounts only to further assurances that the Hoosiers and Ducks are playoff bound, let’s just hope they haven’t used up all their magic already.
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Trends | Under the radar
Heisman five
Week 11 vibe check
Each week, the biggest matchups deliver major changes to the playoff picture. Meanwhile, dozens of smaller shifts in the landscape can add up to an even bigger impact. We track those here.
Trending up: SEC clarity
Texas A&M threw for 221, ran for 243 and demolished Missouri 38-17 on Saturday, further staking claim to the top spot in the SEC and all but guaranteeing a playoff bid.
In a season in which nearly every team has flirted with disaster, the Aggies have been an antidote to the notion that 2025 is a season of parity. They’ve scored at least 30 in all but one game this year. They’ve won four of their past five SEC games by at least two scores. Marcel Reed has quietly forced his way into the Heisman Trophy conversation, accounting for 250 yards and a pair of touchdowns in Saturday’s win. Texas A&M has blossomed into a relentless winning machine, displaying the type of businesslike constancy that has largely been lacking in college football since Nick Saban’s retirement — a team whose lone flaw is that it’s not all too interesting to see it chip away at each opponent’s psyche like Hannibal Lecter until it’s devouring the opponent’s soul alongside some fava beans and a nice Chianti.
If Texas A&M continues its dominance, it now seems destined to meet Saban’s old employer in the SEC title game. Alabama dispatched with LSU on Saturday 20-9 in a game that proved Louisiana’s governor is no better at designing an offense than Brian Kelly. Ty Simpson threw for 277 yards and a score, Bama’s defense racked up seven tackles for loss, and LSU mustered just 232 yards of offense.
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LSU Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide: Full Highlights
LSU Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide: Full Highlights
Is it a concern that Alabama managed just 56 yards rushing and continues to rely so heavily on Simpson and the passing game? Well, was it a concern that Chuck Norris relied heavily on roundhouse kicks and never bested an opponent via the subtle art of persuasion? Is it a problem that Chick-fil-A is stuck on chicken sandwiches without even trying to sell a nice tuna tartare? Should we be worried that the “beyond” in Bed Bath & Beyond doesn’t extend to lumber and sheet rock? Sometimes being awesome at one thing is enough.
Add in Vanderbilt‘s overtime win against Auburn, and the SEC figures to have at least half the top 14 in the next playoff rankings, so for Alabama and A&M to sit comfortably atop the deepest conference in college football — and to do so by once again winning emphatically — speaks volumes.
It has been three years since an SEC team last won it all. That’s nearly as long as the average wait at a Krystal drive-through. But like a late-night Krystal run, the reward for the wait might be well worth it.
Trending up: Big-budget wins
If there was any doubt who the favorite in the Big 12 should be, Texas Tech set the record straight with a dominant 29-7 win over BYU on Saturday.
Cameron Dickey ran for 121 yards and a touchdown, Behren Morton played mistake-free ball, and the Red Raiders’ defense was suffocating, led by Jacob Rodriguez, who had 14 tackles and an interception. The Red Raiders had three takeaways, held BYU to just 255 total yards and allowed just three conversions on 14 third-down tries.
It’s further proof that Texas Tech’s decision to treat the transfer portal like the buffet at a Golden Corral was a stroke of brilliance. After all, nothing bad has ever happened after consuming too many portions of popcorn shrimp that have been sitting under a heat lamp for six hours.
Adding to the emphatic result Saturday, Texas Tech fans found a workaround for the rule banning the throwing of tortillas onto the field by throwing them — um, not on the field.
Somebody in the Texas Tech crowd threw a tortilla on the sky cam 😂 pic.twitter.com/8hnohOJ2U8
— Kalshi CFB (@KalshiCFB) November 8, 2025
Trending up: Wedding season in Mississippi
“Daddy, tell me about how you proposed to mommy.”
“Well, son, we were losing to Georgia by 30, and …”
Not a dry eye in here 🫶 pic.twitter.com/zAOzosteAA
— Mississippi State (@msstate) November 8, 2025
No, it wasn’t a good day for Mississippi State, which was demolished by Georgia 41-21 as Gunner Stockton threw for 269 yards and three touchdowns. But Stockton couldn’t supply the most romantic moment of the game, despite preparing for the contest by sitting in his F-150, listening to Journey’s “Open Arms” on cassette and staring longingly at a photo of Uga trying to bite an Auburn player.
Of course, when it comes to true love, no one upstages Lane Kiffin.
What a dream💍@OleMissTrack x @Lane_Kiffin pic.twitter.com/2J9t0T0fub
— Ole Miss Athletics (@OleMissSports) November 8, 2025
Kiffin, whose Ole Miss team cruised past The Citadel 49-0, is like the cupid of college football, insofar as he appreciates a romantic gesture like this, and also because he’s the most likely SEC coach to shoot someone with an arrow.
Sure, getting engaged during a blowout loss or a blowout win over an FCS foe might not be what these young ladies always dreamed of, but as anyone who has ever held a rehearsal dinner at Waffle House can tell you, you can’t spell “romance” without S-E-C.
Trending down: Up-tempo offense
Army escaped Temple 14-13 by running out the clock on an Owls’ comeback effort with an 18-play drive that ate up the final 9:53 of the game before the Black Knights took a knee at the Temple 5-yard line.
Army held the ball for 13:31 in the fourth quarter, running 24 plays to Temple’s three.
Afterward, Army’s keep-away performance was lauded as the greatest triumph of American military strategy since Patton famously engaged Mussolini in a nearly three-day version of the “Orange you glad I didn’t say ‘Banana'” joke while the Allies took control of the Mediterranean.
Trending up: Buzz cuts
Things are bleak in Boulder, as Colorado lost its third straight — 29-22 to West Virginia — assuring the Buffaloes will miss out on a bowl in Deion Sanders’ third season at the helm.
Colorado freshman QB Julian Lewis got the start and had some good moments, throwing for 299 yards and two scores, but he was sacked seven times, including one particularly painful takedown.
It’s the most unfortunate hair day in college football since Mike Gundy got his mullet caught in an escalator at the mall while trying to prove gravity only exists because we believe it does.
Trending up: Candy motivation
Dabo Swinney, hoping to send a message to his team after a 3-5 start to the season, reportedly gave his players Sour Patch Kids before Saturday’s game with Florida State — a reminder that you have to get through the sour before you get to the sweet.
It proved a far more effective lesson than when he tried to teach trick-or-treaters about offseason training techniques with boxes of Milk Duds a week earlier.
Cade Klubnik threw for a touchdown and ran for another, and the Clemson defense sacked Tommy Castellanos six times and forced two Florida State turnovers en route to a 24-10 win.
After the game, FSU coach Mike Norvell handed out 100 Grand bars to his team to symbolize the hefty buyout he’s likely to be getting after the Seminoles lost their fifth game of the season to fall to 1-5 in ACC play.
Trending down: Certainty in the Group of 5
Memphis wasn’t ranked in the committee’s first top 25, but the Tigers were still pegged as the top team outside the Power 4 and in line for a playoff berth.
On Friday, Tulane upended those plans, as Jake Retzlaff threw for 322 yards and three touchdowns, and the Green Wave toppled Memphis 38-32.
That opened the door for James Madison to make its way to the top of the Group of 5, and the Dukes delivered a 35-23 win over Marshall Thundering Herd, sparked by Alonza Barnett III‘s three touchdown throws.
The committee will now follow protocol by asking ChatGPT if UCF is still a Group of 5 team, then let the algorithm decide who should be ranked highest.
Trending down: Committee hate
In the first playoff rankings of the season, the committee saw fit to rank Miami eight spots below Notre Dame, despite having the same record and a head-to-head win. It seemed an illogical choice, but one easily defended by committee members who rightly noted that the Canes’ offense too often looked like a toddler who hadn’t mastered object permanence trying to parallel park.
On Saturday, the Canes took out their frustration on woeful Syracuse, with Carson Beck leading a 38-10 win, in spite of a host of Miami offensive weapons missing the game due to injury.
Miami seemed intent on proving to the committee that the offense had its share of imagination, with receiver Malachi Toney throwing a touchdown to Beck, and Beck delivering a TD throw to 335-pound offensive lineman Francis Mauigoa.
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Francis Mauigoa crosses goal line for 3-yard rushing touchdown
Francis Mauigoa crosses goal line for 3-yard rushing touchdown
The win proved something of an empty statement, however, as all committee members had missed the game as their DVRs were full, and they were forced to watch a bunch of episodes of “9-1-1: Nashville” instead to make space.
Trending down: Nice things in the ACC
In Week 10, top-ranked teams Georgia Tech and Miami were both upset, utterly upending the ACC’s hopes for multiple playoff bids.
Week 11 ACC said, “Hold my beer,” and then proceeded to slip on a banana peel and spill that beer all over itself.
Virginia, the league’s highest-ranked team, saw QB Chandler Morris leave the game with a concussion and the offense disappear, falling to Wake Forest 16-9.
Louisville, the team that might have had the best case for a top-12 ranking, played without star tailback Isaac Brown and struggled to consistently move the football. Instead, Cal QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele threw for 323 yards and a pair of touchdowns, including a 3-yard strike to Jacob De Jesus on fourth down in overtime to secure a 29-26 win.
And Duke, a team now tied for first place in the conference, lost its third nonconference game of the year — and second to a non-Power 4 team — to UConn 37-34.
Now, there is the possibility that two Group of 5 champions could ultimately end up ranked higher, leaving the league out of the playoff entirely. Regardless of that unlikely outcome, the committee has recommended that the ACC not book any travel in advance and should probably wear mittens when using scissors for the rest of the season.
Trending up: Cashing NIL checks
Cutter Boley threw two touchdown passes, Kentucky ran for 233 yards, and the Wildcats embarrassed Florida 38-7 on Saturday.
Afterward, we can only imagine QB Zach Calzada, smoking a cigar and wearing a velvet tracksuit, handed hundreds to each Florida player, patted them on the cheek and said “good game, good effort,” before popping a bottle of Ale 8, spraying it on a group of confused groundskeepers and hopping into a limo with Ashley Judd and Secretariat’s great-grandson.
Under-the-radar play of the week
Early in the second quarter of a tie game, USC engaged in a little cloak-and-dagger scheme on a fourth-down play, running backup QB Sam Huard onto the field in a No. 80 jersey — which just so happens to be the same number worn by punter Sam Johnson.
The ruse was effective against Northwestern, and Huard tossed a completion to Tanook Hines for a 10-yard completion and a first down. USC scored on the drive to take a 14-7 lead and went on to win 38-17.
The play didn’t exactly sit well with everyone though.
IT’S A FAKE PUNT 🫨
Punter Sam Johnson throws it for a @uscfb first down! pic.twitter.com/eRMSo0gQ2m
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 8, 2025
Punting is sacrosanct in the Big Ten, and now these carpetbaggers from Holly-weird come waltzing into this historic conference and make a mockery of their most beloved traditions.
Lincoln Riley was unapologetic afterward, however, noting that no Trojans in history had ever so cleverly toppled an opponent by presenting something as a benign concession when it was, in truth, an offensive attack.
Under-the-radar game of the week
With 2:23 to play, Jacob Fields picked off Delaware QB Nick Minicucci and returned it to the end zone to give Louisiana Tech a 24-16 lead.
Then things got weird.
Delaware marched 72 yards on eight plays, scoring with 34 seconds to go to pull within two. The Hens failed to connect on the 2-point try, but Nate Reed used a plotline from a “Now You See Me” sequel to execute one of the greatest onside kicks in recent history, giving the Hens the ball back with 33 seconds to go.
Have you ever seen a better onside kick 😏 pic.twitter.com/Rm0iN93pVU
— Delaware Football (@Delaware_FB) November 8, 2025
Then, on Delaware’s third straight possession without Louisiana Tech running an offensive play, Reed came on to drill a 51-yard kick to win the game 25-24.
It was the type of chaotic finish rarely seen in Delaware outside of last call at The Starboard, and it gave the Hens win No. 5 for the season. As a first-year FBS member, however, Delaware won’t be in a bowl unless there aren’t enough eligible teams elsewhere, but the good news is the Hens can still do all their holiday shopping tax-free at the Christiana Mall, which is nice.
Heisman five
1. Ohio State QB Julian Sayin
There’s something that just feels off about Sayin’s Heisman candidacy. It has been too easy, like an email from a deposed prince assuring you of millions if you can just help him out by providing your credit card number. Sayin threw for 303 yards and a score against Purdue, even without one of his top receivers, while Jeremiah Smith picked up the slack, catching 10 balls for 137 yards. Sayin looks like he shouldn’t be able to get into an R-rated movie without a member of the Ohio State coaching staff accompanying him, and yet he has been nearly flawless all season. How is this possible? It feels like someone is about to explain that he’s as much a real quarterback as is a sentient Jugs machine that was developed by OpenAI to eventually eliminate the need for human quarterbacks.
2. Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza
If Mendoza takes home the Heisman as many pundits seem to feel is inevitable now, his final drive that toppled Penn State and shredded Gus Johnson’s vocal cords will be lauded as his “Heisman moment.” Hard to argue. It wasn’t just that he found the holes in Penn State’s defense. There weren’t holes. He created them. He put the ball, time and again, in the one spot his receivers could catch it, and each time — miraculously on the final throw — they did. We’re not quite ready to hand him the hardware yet, but the Big Ten title game, if it is a matchup between Indiana and Ohio State, figures to be the deciding factor.
3. Alabama QB Ty Simpson
Years from now, our greatest scientists will study the game film of Simpson’s Week 1 loss to Florida State, and the first one to explain it rationally will win a Nobel Prize.
4. Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love
Love carried 13 times for 94 yards and 2 touchdowns in a 49-10 win over Navy in Week 11. He has multiple touchdowns in six of his past eight games. His next three games are against ACC teams. He might finish the year with 100 touchdowns.
5. UConn QB Joe Fagnano
OK, we know, putting a UConn QB in the Heisman conversation is a bit like adding Nachos BellGrande to the tasting menu at The French Laundry. But hear us out: Fagnano was 27-of-39 for 311 yards and 3 touchdowns passing, ran for 51 more yards and scored a critical 2-point conversion late as the Huskies knocked off Duke 37-34. Fagnano now has 25 touchdown passes without a pick this season — the first player to do that since Marcus Mariota in 2013. Fagnano has thrown 382 consecutive passes without an interception, passing Russell Wilson (379) for the second-longest streak in FBS history. He now trails only Louisiana Tech’s Colby Cameron, who threw 444 straight without an INT in 2011 and 2012. In other words, it’s time to award Taco Bell with a Michelin star.
Following the first College Football Playoff rankings of the season, selection committee chair Mack Rhoades wanted to make sure reporters understood the most integral part of the ranking process.
“We’ve watched the games,” he said on the weekly teleconference. “Let me repeat that; we watch the games.”
That won’t make it easier to decide who should be No. 2 on Tuesday night: Indiana, which escaped a 3-6 Penn State team, or Texas A&M, which soundly beat a CFP top 25 team in Mizzou. A deeper dive into the statistics and résumés of both undefeated teams — plus the context of why the group ranked them No. 2 and No. 3, respectively, last week — will factor into their discussions. It might be a bigger debate than how far No. 7 BYU should fall this week after a 29-7 loss to No. 8 Texas Tech.
Here’s a prediction of what the selection committee will do Tuesday night when it reveals its second of six rankings (7 p.m. ET/ESPN).
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: Ohio State earned its fourth Big Ten road win of the season Saturday, albeit against a 2-8 Purdue team that hasn’t won since Sept. 6 against Southern Illinois. The Buckeyes entered Saturday ranked No. 33 in strength of schedule, according to ESPN Analytics, but No. 1 in Game Control and No. 3 in Strength of Record. “So it was certainly close [between Ohio State, Indiana and Texas A&M], but when we looked at film, and we’re blessed to have committee members and coaches that do a lot of film work, we just felt like Ohio State had a slight edge when we think about offensive line play and then a slight edge defensively,” Rhoades said after the first ranking release Tuesday. “That was really the outcome. Ohio State has some, I’m going to call them explosive players, that probably stood out as well.”
Why they could be lower: It would be difficult for the committee to justify dropping the Buckeyes below Indiana after the Hoosiers were fortunate to escape Penn State with a win Saturday, but undefeated Texas A&M continues to make a case for the top spot. The Aggies, who entered the week ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, earned another CFP top 25 win at Mizzou on Saturday.
Need to know: Ohio State entered Week 11 with the best chance in the country to reach the playoff (99.2%), the best chance to earn the No. 1 seed (41.1%), and the best chance to win it all (27%).
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Michigan. It’s the only CFP top 25 team left on Ohio State’s regular-season schedule. The Buckeyes are trying to avoid a fifth straight loss to their rivals.
Why they could be here: The road win against 3-6 Penn State isn’t going to help the Hoosiers’ résumé much, but they narrowly avoided putting their first-round bye in jeopardy. Indiana should remain safely in the top four, thanks to a double-digit road win against No. 9 Oregon and another CFP top 25 win at Iowa. The Hoosiers beat two teams that were in a nailbiter Saturday before Oregon won on a game-winning field goal at Iowa. Penn State and Iowa are the only opponents Indiana hasn’t defeated by double digits. The historic 63-10 win against 6-3 Illinois is another respectable résumé booster, even though it’s not against a CFP top 25 opponent.
Why they could be lower: Texas A&M continues to make a push to move up after its 38-17 win at Mizzou on Saturday. The Aggies entered Week 11 ranked higher than Indiana in ESPN’s Strength of Schedule and Strength of Record metrics.
Need to know: Both of Indiana’s remaining opponents — Wisconsin and Purdue — have six losses. The Hoosiers entered Week 11 with the best chance in the Big Ten to reach the conference championship game.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Purdue. It’s on a Friday night against an in-state rival — and Indiana still has at least a 97% chance to win, according to ESPN Analytics.
Why they could be here: With Saturday’s win at Mizzou, the Aggies have won three straight SEC road games to go along with the Sept. 13 win at Notre Dame. The committee will discuss, though, that Missouri was without injured starting quarterback Beau Pribula, and the Aggies easily handled freshman quarterback Matt Zollers, who was making his first start. Texas A&M entered Week 11 ranked No. 18 in defensive efficiency, behind Ohio State (No. 3) and Indiana (No. 2), and that played a role in the committee’s decision last week. “What we saw in A&M is a really, really good football team,” Rhoades said Tuesday. “They went into Death Valley, I thought dominated a good LSU team. You have a dynamic playmaker at quarterback, Marcel Reed. He can beat you with his arm. He can beat you with his feet. Impressive win, certainly going on the road, South Bend. I think you’re talking about really small margins when you think about the difference between Ohio State, Indiana and A&M, and then I think statistically, when we looked at A&M defensively, they’re just lower than both Ohio State and Indiana. We had to make a hard decision, and you’re trying to find separators, and that was a separator for us.”
Why they could be higher: Though Indiana was fortunate to escape 3-6 Penn State with a win, Texas A&M went on the road and beat the committee’s No. 22 team soundly, scoring 24 points in the second half against Mizzou.
Need to know: Texas A&M entered Saturday with a 56.7% chance to earn a first-round bye but had less than a 50% chance to beat Texas in the regular-season finale.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Texas. It’s the only ranked opponent remaining on the Aggies’ schedule, and their last road game.
Why they could be here: If the Tide didn’t start any higher in the first ranking, it’s unlikely a home win against LSU on Saturday will boost them above any of the undefeated teams. The head-to-head win will keep them above Georgia, though, as the committee’s highest-ranked one-loss team. The road win against the No. 5 Bulldogs is one of the best in the country — arguably better than any win the teams above them can claim — but the season-opening loss to Florida State is holding them back. The Oct. 11 victory at Mizzou is still good, even if the Tigers fall out of the Top 25 this week, and the committee will recognize Bama beat Mizzou when starting quarterback Beau Pribula was healthy. The Tide also have a CFP top 25 win against Tennessee, which had a bye this week. “I’m not sure, when you look at a résumé, anybody had a better stretch of four games,” Rhoades said of the Tide on Tuesday. “When you think about Alabama, really, really impressive, two of those wins on the road. Going into Athens, one of the hardest, toughest environments to be able to get out of there with a win. There was certainly discussion about the Florida State loss early on, but just felt like that four-game stretch — which by the way, historical in the SEC. Nobody has beaten four straight ranked teams without a bye.”
Why they could be lower: It would be hard for the committee to justify any movement up or down this week, given the teams around them won, the head-to-head results and last week’s ranking.
Need to know: Alabama’s strength of schedule was No. 4 in the country heading into Week 11 — better than every team ranked ahead of it. The Tide was No. 5, though, in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, trailing the committee’s top three teams.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 vs. Oklahoma. This is the last ranked opponent Alabama will face.
Why they could be here: Georgia didn’t need a second-half surge at Mississippi State, after rallying from a tie or from behind during its previous three games. The committee likes what it sees from Georgia, but it has to account for head-to-head results, which is why Georgia should continue to be sandwiched between Alabama and Ole Miss again Tuesday night. “I think Gunner Stockton at quarterback has really progressed,” Rhoades said Tuesday. “It certainly feels like they have more confidence in him, doing a lot more with him. Again, he’s another maybe similar to Marcel Reed where he can beat you with his arm, he can beat you with his feet. The head-to-head against Ole Miss, obviously we took that into account. We absolutely took into account the loss at home versus Alabama.”
Why they could be lower: It would be surprising to see the Bulldogs move Tuesday night, given that nothing drastic happened around them.
Need to know: Georgia will play its last SEC game of the season Saturday against Texas, as it finishes the month against Charlotte and rival Georgia Tech.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 vs. Texas. The Longhorns beat Vanderbilt on Nov. 1 and enter this game on a four-game winning streak. They also had a bye to prepare for the trip to Athens, while Georgia is coming off a road win against Mississippi State.
Why they could be here: A lopsided win against The Citadel won’t impress the selection committee, but the Rebels already earned their respect in the first ranking. Ole Miss will still be ranked behind Georgia because of the head-to-head road loss to the Bulldogs on Oct. 18. The Rebels entered Saturday with a slight edge over Texas Tech in Strength of Record, but with greater separation in strength of schedule, where Ole Miss was No. 25 and Texas Tech was No. 58. The committee will also consider the Rebels’ road defeat to Georgia is a better loss than the Red Raiders’ road setback to Arizona State, which has lost two of its past four games.
Why they could be lower: Texas Tech earned a CFP top-10 win Saturday when it beat previously undefeated BYU. Ole Miss’ best win was Oct. 25 at No. 12 Oklahoma.
Need to know: The 45-10 win against Tulane on Sept. 20 continues to enhance the Rebels’ overall record strength, even though it’s not a CFP top 25 win. The Green Wave earned an important win at Memphis on Friday, keeping their playoff hopes alive. Tulane also beat Northwestern and Duke this season, and the committee pays attention to opponents’ opponents (yes, you read that right).
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Mississippi State. The Egg Bowl isn’t a gimme, even after the Bulldogs were beaten soundly Saturday by Georgia. A loss could mean a first-round road trip instead of a home game for Ole Miss — or getting bumped out of the bracket.
Why they could be here: The Red Raiders looked like the best team in the Big 12 on Saturday, and the committee will likely reflect that in its second ranking. The double-digit win against previously undefeated BYU is better than Oregon’s best win, but the loss to Arizona State could play a role in the committee keeping Texas Tech behind Ole Miss. Still, the committee factors in injuries to key players, and the Red Raiders were without their starting quarterback Behren Morton (knee) on the road in the close defeat to the Sun Devils. “The loss at Arizona State without Behren at quarterback, Arizona State wins that late, so we do talk about quality wins,” Rhoades said last Tuesday. “We also talk about quality losses.”
Why they could be higher: The selection committee also rewarded Texas Tech for its road win against No. 13 Utah. On Saturday, Texas Tech earned its ninth victory by at least 20 points this season, showing the committee its ability to win convincingly consistently. The Red Raiders’ defense held BYU to its fewest points in any game over the past two seasons.
Need to know: Texas Tech and BYU are still the most likely matchup in the Big 12 title game. According to ESPN Analytics, Texas Tech has a 93% chance to reach it, BYU is second with a 55% chance and Cincinnati is third (19%). If BYU captures the Big 12, Texas Tech could claim a regular-season win against the eventual Big 12 champ, which would help boost its résumé and the case for playoff inclusion as the league runner-up.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at West Virginia. The Red Raiders have at least an 80% chance to win their two remaining regular-season games, but this one is slightly more difficult than against UCF because it’s on the road at a difficult venue.
Why they could be here: The Ducks got a much-needed résumé boost with Saturday’s win at Iowa, their first against a CFP top 25 team. Rhoades had said last week that Oregon had the lowest record strength of any team in the committee’s top 10. Saturday’s win also showed the group some impressive depth and grit, with the Ducks winning on the road in horrible weather and without multiple injured starters, including three of their top receivers. The question is if Iowa will still be a top 25 team Tuesday now that the Hawkeyes have three losses.
Why they could be higher: Oregon has been passing the eye test, ranking in the top five in offensive and defensive efficiency entering Saturday. With the exception of the two close road wins at Iowa and Penn State, the Ducks have dominated their opponents, ranking No. 4 in the country in Game Control — trailing only Ohio State, Indiana and Texas Tech.
Need to know: Oregon has at least a 70% chance to win each of its remaining games (Minnesota, USC and at Washington), according to ESPN Analytics, but it’s still unlikely to reach the Big Ten title game. The head-to-head home loss to the Hoosiers is a major reason.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 22 vs. USC. The Trojans are 7-2 with one Big Ten loss and opportunities to climb in the ranking. A win at Oregon would flip the script in the conference pecking order, and if USC can beat Iowa Saturday, this game will be the Trojans’ Super Bowl.
Why they could be here: Notre Dame had no trouble dismantling an overmatched Navy team that was playing without injured starting quarterback Blake Horvath. It was Notre Dame’s seventh straight win since starting the season 0-2. The committee considered that those two losses in last week’s first ranking were by a total of four points to two CFP top 25 teams, including No. 3 and unbeaten Texas A&M. The committee was also impressed with Notre Dame’s 34-24 win against USC on Oct. 18, and that will continue to resonate with the Trojans improving to 7-2 after Friday’s win against Northwestern. Rhoades said Notre Dame had been “much, much better defensively” of late. “You look at their backfield, Jadarian Price, Jeremiyah Love, probably the best backfield in the country when you think about one-two punch,” Rhoades said. “Going into the Southern Cal game, they lost their starting center for the year, and they were able to overcome that and run for a bunch of yards, again, against Southern Cal.”
Why they could be lower: This all depends on how far BYU drops. The Cougars will most likely be at No. 10 above Notre Dame and the two-loss pack of teams, or at No. 12, and below OU and Texas but above Utah. If the Cougars drop to No. 12, Notre Dame would get a slight promotion by default this week.
Need to know: Notre Dame still has the best chance of any team to win out, according to ESPN Analytics.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Pitt. The Panthers might be playing the best of any team in the ACC during their five-game winning streak. They also had a bye week to prepare for the Irish.
Why they could be here: The Longhorns had a bye after earning a top-12 spot in the first ranking. Texas has won four straight, including CFP top 25 wins against Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. Vandy needed overtime to beat a 4-6 Auburn team Saturday, but that win should continue to help the Longhorns’ résumé. The Oct. 4 loss at Florida remains a stain on that résumé, though. The 14-7 season-opening road defeat to No. 1-ranked Ohio State isn’t what keeps Texas out of the playoff.
Why they could be lower: It depends on how far BYU falls after losing 29-7 to Texas Tech on Saturday. BYU’s lone win against a CFP top 25 team was Oct. 18 at home against Utah 24-21. BYU entered Week 11 ranked No. 45 in strength of schedule, while Texas was No. 11. BYU didn’t lose to Florida, though — its lone defeat is to a CFP top-10 team.
Need to know: No team has a better opportunity to impress the selection committee in the final three weeks of the season than Texas, which will face two CFP top-five teams in No. 5 Georgia and No. 3 Texas A&M. If Texas splits those games and finishes as a three-loss team, it could still be ranked in the top 12 but might not make the playoff. It would be a similar situation to what happened to three-loss Alabama last year, which finished No. 11 on Selection Day, but was excluded from the playoff to make room for ACC champion Clemson. If Texas wins both games, it could jump Notre Dame and put the Irish in a similarly precarious position at No. 11 or No. 12.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 vs. Texas A&M. It certainly won’t be easy to win at Georgia on Saturday, but the Longhorns had a bye week to prepare for it while the Bulldogs were on the road. Texas will face in-state rival Texas A&M on a Friday night in the regular-season finale, the second top-five team it will face in a three-week span.
Why they could be here: The Sooners had a bye, but are stuck behind Texas because of the head-to-head loss to the Longhorns on Oct. 11. Wins against Tennessee and Michigan, though, have them within range of making the 12-team field, and it helped that the committee ranked the Vols No. 25 as their highest-ranked three-loss team.
Why they could be lower: The selection committee probably wouldn’t shuffle this order, considering Texas and Oklahoma were off this week, but OU could stay at 12 in the second ranking if the committee keeps BYU in the top 10.
Need to know: If the playoff were today, Oklahoma would still be bumped out of the field during the seeding process to make room for the ACC champion, which is still projected to be ranked outside of the committee’s top 12 but guaranteed a spot as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Alabama. The Sooners will be in a must-win situation in Tuscaloosa, as the rest of their résumé likely won’t be enough to compensate for a third loss, given that they’re already on the bubble in the eyes of the committee.
Why they could be here: The Cougars have a good win (Oct. 18 against Utah) and an eyebrow-raising defeat (Saturday). Texas Tech is a good team, but how BYU lost to the Red Raiders will matter. BYU was outplayed, and its offense was stifled: 67 rushing yards, 3 turnovers, 4.9 yards per pass, while converting just 3 of 14 third downs. A drop behind two-loss Texas and OU isn’t unreasonable. Utah is the only opponent BYU has defeated with fewer than four defeats. BYU entered Saturday ranked No. 45 in ESPN’s Strength of Schedule metric — significantly behind Notre Dame (23), Texas (11) and Oklahoma (13). The loss opens the door for the committee to reevaluate BYU’s body of work. The committee would still likely honor BYU’s head-to-head win against Utah, though, giving the Cougars a safety net to stay in the top 12.
Why they could be higher: It was BYU’s first loss of the season, on the road, and to a top-10 team leading the nation in defensive efficiency.
Need to know: If BYU runs the table and reaches the Big 12 title game, it would clinch a spot in the playoff with a win. What happens if the Cougars finish as a two-loss runner-up with a second lopsided loss to Texas Tech? Where they’re placed in the committee’s second ranking Tuesday night will provide some insight and show how much margin for error they might have. If they land at No. 12 on Selection Day, even as the Big 12 runner-up, they’d be excluded to make room for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion, which is projected to be South Florida out of the American Conference.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 22 at Cincinnati. The Big 12 race isn’t over yet, and Cincinnati might have something to say about it — unless the Bearcats play the way they did during a 45-14 loss at Utah. Cincinnati still has the third-best chance to reach the Big 12 title game behind Texas Tech and BYU.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Alabama
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 South Florida (American champ) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 Georgia Tech (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Texas at No. 7 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 South Florida/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Alabama
No. 11 Georgia Tech/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Texas/No. 7 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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