Budget 2025: Starmer and Reeves ditch plans to raise income tax
Sir Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves have scrapped plans to break their manifesto pledge and raise income tax rates in a massive U-turn less than two weeks from the budget.
The decision, first reported in the Financial Times, comes after a bruising few days which has brought about a change of heart in Downing Street.
Read more: How No 10 plunged itself into crisis
I understand Downing Street has backed down amid fears about the backlash from disgruntled MPs and voters.
The Treasury and Number 10 declined to comment.
The decision is a massive about-turn. In a news conference last week, the chancellor appeared to pave the way for manifesto-breaking tax rises in the budget on 26 November.
She spoke of difficult choices and insisted she could neither increase borrowing nor cut spending in order to stabilise the economy, telling the public “everyone has to play their part”.
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‘Aren’t you making a mockery of voters?’
The decision to backtrack was communicated to the Office for Budget Responsibility on Wednesday in a submission of “major measures”, according to the Financial Times.
The chancellor will now have to fill an estimated £30bn black hole with a series of narrower tax-raising measures and is also expected to freeze income tax thresholds for another two years beyond 2028, which should raise about £8bn.
Tory shadow business secretary Andrew Griffith said: “We’ve had the longest ever run-up to a budget, damaging the economy with uncertainty, and yet – with just days to go – it is clear there is chaos in No 10 and No 11.”
How did we get here?
For weeks, the government has been working up options to break the manifesto pledge not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT on working people.
I was told only this week the option being worked up was to do a combination of tax rises and action on the two-child benefit cap in order for the prime minister to be able to argue that in breaking his manifesto pledges, he is trying his hardest to protect the poorest in society and those “working people” he has spoken of so endlessly.
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Ed Conway on the chancellor’s options
But days ago, officials and ministers were working on a proposal to lift the basic rate of income tax – perhaps by 2p – and then simultaneously cut national insurance contributions for those on the basic rate of income tax (those who earn up to £50,000 a year).
That way the chancellor can raise several billion in tax from those with the “broadest shoulders” – higher-rate taxpayers and pensioners or landlords, while also trying to protect “working people” earning salaries under £50,000 a year.
The chancellor was also going to take action on the two-child benefit cap in response to growing demand from the party to take action on child poverty. It is unclear whether those plans will now be shelved given the U-turn on income tax.
A rough week for the PM
The change of plan comes after the prime minister found himself engulfed in a leadership crisis after his allies warned rivals that he would fight any attempted post-budget coup.
It triggered a briefing war between Wes Streeting and anonymous Starmer allies attacking the health secretary as the chief traitor.
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Wes Streeting: Faithful or traitor? Beth Rigby’s take
Read more: Is Starmer ‘in office but not in power’?
The prime minister has since apologised to Mr Streeting, who I am told does not want to press for sackings in No 10 in the wake of the briefings against him.
But the saga has further damaged Sir Keir and increased concerns among MPs about his suitability to lead Labour into the next general election.
Insiders clearly concluded that the ill mood in the party, coupled with the recent hits to the PM’s political capital, makes manifesto-breaking tax rises simply too risky right now.
But it also adds to a sense of chaos, given the chancellor publicly pitch-rolled tax rises in last week’s news conference.
Italy’s securities regulator set a firm timetable for applying the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) in the country, warning that unlicensed crypto platforms face a deadline to either seek authorization or leave the market.
The move directly affects virtual asset service providers (VASPs) currently operating under Italy’s regime and the retail investors who use them.
In a news release published Thursday, Italy’s Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa (CONSOB) reminded the market that Dec. 30 is the last day VASPs registered with the Organismo Agenti e Mediatori (OAM) can operate under the existing national framework.
After that date, only entities authorized as crypto asset service providers (CASPs) under MiCA, including firms passporting into Italy from another EU member state, will be allowed to offer crypto‑asset services in the country.
CONSOB notes that, under Italy’s MiCA‑implementing legislation, VASPs that submit an application to be authorized as CASPs in Italy or another European Union member state by Dec. 30 may continue operating while their applications are assessed, but no later than June 30, 2026.
This transitional operating period is available only to operators who file by the deadline and ends once authorization is granted or refused, or when the June 30, 2026, limit is reached.
Related: ECB president calls to address risks from non-EU stablecoins
Obligations for firms that do not apply
For VASPs that decide not to seek authorization under MiCA, CONSOB outlined specific obligations. These operators must cease their activities in Italy by Dec. 30, terminate existing contracts, and return clients’ crypto‑assets and funds in accordance with customers’ instructions.
CONSOB also said that VASPs registered in the OAM list must publish adequate information on their websites and inform clients directly about the measures they intend to adopt, either to comply with MiCA or to ensure an orderly closure of existing relationships.
This framework stems from Italy’s legislative decree implementing MiCA, which introduced a transitional regime for existing VASPs and set the conditions under which they can continue operating while moving to the new CASP authorization system. The decree makes use of the flexibility allowed by MiCA’s transitional provisions to set national deadlines, including the June 30, 2026 date referred to in CONSOB’s communication.
Warnings to retail investors
CONSOB’s news release includes a separate section titled “warnings for investors.”
The regulator points out that VASPs currently operating in Italy may no longer be authorized to do so after Dec. 30, and stresses that investors should check whether they have received the necessary information from their provider on its plans to comply with MiCA.
If not, CONSOB advises investors to ask the operator for clarification or request the return of their funds.
EU‑level context under MiCA
CONSOB’s communication sits within the wider EU framework for MiCA’s application and transitional measures. On the same day, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) published a statement on the end of MiCA transitional periods, highlighting that member states can provide temporary continuation of existing licenses for existing providers, but these periods are limited and will expire.
Related: EU plan would boost ESMA powers over crypto and capital markets
The ESMA’s statement explains that firms operating under national transitional regimes are not automatically MiCA‑authorized and emphasizes the need for “orderly wind-down plans” where providers do not obtain authorization before transitional periods end.
Italy’s hard stop for applications and continued operation shows how member states are using the discretion MiCA gives them over transitional regimes. The Italian transitional period now has defined end‑points, and continued activity in the market will require MiCA‑compliant authorization.
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A new long-awaited child poverty strategy is promising to lift half a million children out of poverty by the end of this parliament – but critics have branded it unambitious.
The headline announcement in the government’s plan is the pledge to lift the two-child benefit cap, announced in Rachel Reeves’s budget last week.
It also includes:
• Providing upfront childcare support for parents on universal credit returning to work
• An £8m fund to end the placement of families in bed and breakfasts beyond a six-week limit
• Reforms to cut the cost of baby formula
• A new legal duty on councils to notify schools, health visitors, and GPs when a child is placed in temporary accommodation
Many of the measures have previously been announced.
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Two-child cap ‘a real victory for the left’
The government also pointed to its plan in the budget to cut energy bills by £150 a year, and its previously promised £950m boost to a local authority housing fund, which it says will deliver 5,000 high-quality homes for better temporary accommodation.
Downing Street said the strategy would lift 550,000 children out of poverty by 2030, saying that would be the biggest reduction in a single parliament since records began.
But charities had been hoping for a 10-year strategy and argue the plan lacks ambition.
A record 4.5 million children (about 31%) are living in poverty in the UK – 900,000 more since 2010/11, according to government figures.
Phillip Anderson, the Strategic Director for External Affairs at the National Children’s Bureau (NCB), told Sky News: “Abolishing the two-child limit is a hell of a centre piece, but beyond that it’s mainly a summary of previously announced policies and commitments.
“The really big thing for me is it misses the opportunity to talk about the longer term. It was supposed to be a 10-year strategy, we wanted to see real ambition and ideally legally binding targets for reducing poverty.
“The government itself says there will still be around four million children living in poverty after these measures and the strategy has very little to say to them.”
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‘A budget for benefits street’
‘Budget for benefits street’ row
The biggest measure in the strategy is the plan to lift the two-child benefit cap from April. This is estimated to lift 450,000 children out of poverty by 2030, at a cost of £3bn.
The government has long been under pressure from backbench Labour MPs to scrap the cap, with most experts arguing that it is the quickest, most cost-effective way to drive-down poverty this parliament.
The cap, introduced by Conservative chancellor George Osborne in 2017, means parents can only claim universal credit or tax credits for their first two children. It meant the average affected household losing £4,300 per year, the Institute for Fiscal Studies calculated in 2024.
The government argues that a failure to tackle child poverty holds back the economy, and young people at school, cutting their employment and earning prospects in later life.
However, the Conservatives argue parents on benefits should have to make the same financial choices about children as everyone else.
Shadow chancellor Mel Stride said: “Work is the best way out poverty but since this government took office, unemployment has risen every single month and this budget for Benefits Street will only make the situation worse. “
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OBR leak: This has happened before
‘Bring back Sure Start’
Lord Bird, a crossbench peer who founded the Big Issue and grew up in poverty, said while he supported the lifting of the cap there needed to be “more joined up thinking” across government for a longer-term strategy.
He has been pushing for the creation of a government ministry of “poverty prevention and cure”, and for legally binding targets on child poverty.
“You have to be able to measure yourself, you can’t have the government marking its own homework,” he told Sky News.
Lord Bird also said he was a “great believer” in resurrecting Sure Start centres and expanding them beyond early years.
The New Labour programme offered support services for pre-school children and their parents and is widely seen to have improved health and educational outcomes. By its peak in 2009-2010 there were 3,600 centres – the majority of which closed following cuts by the subsequent Conservative government.
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Lord Bird on the ‘great distraction’ from child poverty
PM to meet families
Sir Keir Starmer’s government have since announced 1,000 Best Start Family Hubs – but many Labour MPs feel this announcement went under the radar and ministers missed a trick in not calling them “Sure Starts” as it is a name people are familiar with.
The prime minister is expected to meet families and children in Wales on Friday, alongside the Welsh First Minister, to make the case for his strategy and meet those he hopes will benefit from it.
Several other charities have urged ministers to go further. Both Crisis and Shelter called for the government to unfreeze housing benefit and build more social rent homes, while the Children’s Commissioner for England, Dame Rachel de Souza, said that “if we are to end child poverty – not just reduce it” measures like free bus travel for school-age children would be needed.
The strategy comes after the government set up a child poverty taskforce in July 2024, which was initially due to report back in May. The taskforce’s findings have not yet been published – only the government’s response.
Sir Keir said: “Too many children are growing up in poverty, held back from getting on in life, and too many families are struggling without the basics: a secure home, warm meals and the support they need to make ends meet.
“I will not stand by and watch that happen, because the cost of doing nothing is too high for children, for families and for Britain.”
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