Jensen Huang attends a reception for the 2025 Queen Elizabeth Prize for Engineering, at St James’ Palace in London, Brirain, Nov. 5, 2025.
Yui Mok | Via Reuters
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang revealed in October that his company has $500 billion in orders, in 2025 and 2026 combined, for its chips that are at the heart of the artificial intelligence boom.
For a company that has seen its quarterly revenue grow nearly 600% over the past four years, Huang’s statement was a sign that Nvidia is confident of another year of strong — but slowing — growth for its next cycle of chips, implying that the AI boom still has room to run.
“This is how much business is on the books. Half a trillion dollars worth so far,” Huang said at the company’s GTC conference in Washington.
Huang included 2025 revenue so far, sales of Nvidia’s current Blackwell graphics processing units and next year’s Rubin GPUs and also related parts like networking. After parsing through the details of Huang’s remarks, analysts concluded that the statement signaled a meaningfully higher year by revenue in 2026 than Wall Street had previously expected.
“NVDA’s disclosures suggest clear upside to current consensus estimates,” wrote Wolfe Research analyst Chris Caso in a November note. Caso estimated that Huang’s data point suggested data center sales that could be $60 billion over prior calendar 2026 estimates. He has the equivalent of a buy rating on the stock.
But Nvidia stock is trading 5% under where it was when Huang called the company’s shot on Oct. 28.
It’s a reflection of the continued debate among investors about the AI boom, and whether a handful of big cloud companies called hyperscalers and AI labs are overspending on infrastructure.
When Nvidia reports third-quarter earnings on Wednesday, analysts polled by LSEG are expecting $1.25 in earnings per share on $54.9 billion of sales, which would be a 56% increase on a year-over-year basis. They’re also looking for guidance in the January quarter of $61.44 billion, which would indicate a reacceleration of growth.
Nvidia doesn’t provide more than one quarter of forward-looking guidance at earnings. But anything Huang says about the company’s sales backlog and outlook for calendar 2026 will be scrutinized not just for Nvidia’s outlook but also that of the broader tech industry. Analysts polled by LSEG currently expect $286.7 billion in sales for Nvidia in 2026.
‘Insatiable AI appetite’
At the Washington conference, Huang said the company has “visibility” into that revenue. That’s not surprising — Nvidia counts nearly every multitrillion-dollar tech company as a customer, including Google, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta.
During October earnings, all of those companies said they were boosting their capital expenditure spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure, which means Nvidia chips.
Hyperscalers’ rising capex reflects “insatiable AI appetite,” wrote Oppenheimer analyst Rick Schafer in a note earlier this month. He has a buy rating on Nvidia stock.
Nvidia has also been an aggressive dealmaker during the quarter, and analysts will want to hear from Huang about the details of these partnerships.
The biggest deal was Nvidia agreeing to invest up to $10 billion in OpenAI equity in exchange for the AI startup buying between 4 million and 5 million GPUs over a period of years. Nvidia also agreed to invest $5 billion in former rival Intel. That deal would see the two chipmakers team up to enable Intel chips to work better with Nvidia GPUs.
After the October quarter ended, Nvidia took a $1 billion stake in Nokia to team up to integrate its GPUs into cellular network hardware of the Finnish company. Nvidia also continued investing in various startups.
Citi analyst Atif Malik said in a November note that the deal with OpenAI, in particular, will be an investor focus on Wednesday.
“Although concerns around the mix of debt and circular financing around AI capex froth exist, we fundamentally see AI supply below demand,” Malik wrote. He has the equivalent of a buy rating on the stock.
Nvidia has more than 90% of the market for AI GPUs. But some of its customers — including Amazon with its Tranium chips, Google with its TPU chips and OpenAI with forthcoming chips made in partnership with Broadcom — have promoted their custom semiconductors, application-specific integrated circuits, or ASICs, increasingly over the past three months.
Huang often speaks generally about Nvidia’s views on earnings calls with analysts and could elaborate about how the company sees rising competition, which investors would welcome, according to Citi.
All of these projections are without any China sales. The company’s Chinese-oriented chip, called the H20, was effectively restricted from being exported earlier this year before Huang made a deal with President Donald Trumpin August to get export licenses in exchange for the government getting 15% of China sales.
But since then, Nvidia representatives have made gloomy comments about the possibility of significant sales to China, and the company hasn’t announced a successor chip to the H20, which is getting old by AI chip standards. Schafer, the Oppenheimer analyst, said he believes China could represent an over $50 billion annual revenue opportunity.
When asked by CNBC in late October whether he wants to sell current Blackwell-generation chips to China, Huang said: “I hope so. But that’s a decision for President Trump to make.”
Data center stocks took a major hit on Monday after Morgan Stanley downgraded seven hardware companies, including Dell and Hewlett Packard Enterprise.
The bank double-downgraded Dell from overweight to underweight and downgraded HPE from overweight to equal weight.
Dell and HPE closed down 8% and 7%, respectively.
HP Inc, Asustek and Pegatron were also downgraded from equal weight to underweight, while Gigabyte and Lenovo were lowered from equal weight to overweight. All companies saw shares dip as much as 6%.
Morgan Stanley analysts wrote that computer makers are in the midst of an unprecedented pricing “supercycle,” as hyperscalers continue to accelerate data center demand, pushing hardware valuations to reach all-time highs.
Rising costs in the DRAM, dynamic random access memory, and NAND memory, a flash memory typically used in memory cards, businesses could put pressure on margins, especially as memory fulfillment rates may fall as low as 40% over the next two quarters, according to the bank.
“This as an emerging, and potentially significant, risk to CY26 earnings estimates for our Global Hardware OEM/ODM universe, where memory accounts for 10-70% of a products’ bill of materials,” analysts wrote.
Read more CNBC tech news
Major DRAM and NAND manufacturers have been hiking prices as climbing AI infrastructure demand continues to bleed memory supplies dry. Samsung reportedly hiked the prices for its memory chips by as much as 60% since September, according to Reuters.
Analysts pointed to the memory cycle between 2016 to 2018, where NAND and DRAM spot prices increased 80% to 90%. Increased device prices were unable to offset the soaring input costs, causing original equipment and design manufacturers to experience compressed gross margins.
“During this period, we saw earnings pressure and multiple de-rating from hardware stocks with elevated DRAM exposure, lower pricing power, and narrower margins, but outperformance from companies able to pass off costs to end-customers,” analysts wrote.
Dell was highlighted as one of the hardware companies most exposed to rising memory costs, noting that the company’s gross margin contracted by 95 to 170 basis points during the last memory cycle.
The company is one of Nvidia‘s major customers and builds computers around the AI giant’s chips, which it then sells to end-users such as cloud service CoreWeave.
“This is important as history tells us that companies facing margin headwinds underperform peers with similar growth rates, but stable-to-expanding margins,” analysts wrote.
Analysts expect increased DRAM and NAND costs to weigh on the PC maker’s margins over the next 12 to 18 months.
Two portfolio stocks are making news Monday — one in enterprise software and the other in banking. Earnings preview : Bank of America lowered its price target on Salesforce to $305 per share from $325 ahead of quarterly earnings next month. The analysts, who kept a buy rating on shares, cited cheaper multiples across software peers, according to a Monday note. They added that low expectations and low investor sentiment into the quarter means limited downside for the stock at current levels. However, BofA predicts that Salesforce’s fiscal 2026 third-quarter revenue and current remaining performance obligations (RPO) will be in line. The analysts also see a steady performance in Salesforce’s core business, along with more interest in Agentforce over time. Analysts at Deutsche Bank are expecting an “uneventful” quarter when Salesforce posts results on Dec. 3. “We came away from Investor Day thinking Salesforce laid out as compelling of a story as we could expect,” analysts wrote in a Monday note. Salesforce held its Investor Day alongside last month’s Dreamforce conference. Deutsche Bank maintained its buy rating on shares and $340 price target. CRM YTD mountain Salesforce YTD We’re taking a different stance than the analysts. During last week’s November Monthly Meeting for Club members, Jim Cramer said that he was “depressed about Salesforce.” Salesforce is challenged, according to Jim, by generative AI as the nascent tech might be cannibalizing the company’s core platform, which operates on a seat-based model. At Dreamforce, the company projected annual revenue of $60 billion by 2030. But that’s a “lifetime” for Wall Street, according to Jim. This stock has turned into a show-and-prove story that has yet to be realized. The stock has lost more than 29% year to date. Deal king: Goldman Sachs is on track for its best annual M & A performance in nearly a quarter of a century. The Wall Street bank has grabbed a 34% share of the deal value of the overall $3.8 trillion in global mergers and acquisitions announced so far in 2025, the Financial Times reported Monday, citing LSEG data. That’s up from the 28% share Goldman controlled last year. Now that Cidara Therapeutics has announced that Goldman will advise on drug giant Merck ‘s $9.2 billion takeover of the biotech name, the investment bank could finally surpass M & A levels last seen in 2001. The LSEG data was compiled before the Cidara-Merck deal was announced. GS YTD mountain Goldman Sachs YTD It shouldn’t come as a total surprise that Goldman’s dealmaking division is on a tear this year. Not only has the overall investment banking industry rebounded since 2022 lows, but Goldman has also recently inked many high-profile deals. As the sole advisor of the $55 billion take-private transaction of video game maker Electronic Arts , Goldman is set to book its largest M & A deal fee in its history to the tune of $110 million, according to securities filings last week. This is all welcome news for the Club. After all, we started a position in Goldman on the premise that its crucial investment banking division will benefit from the recovery in Wall Street dealmaking. The financial stock’s stellar 2025 performance – up nearly 35% year to date – and better-than-expected quarterly earnings reports have shown us exactly that. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long CRM, GS. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
In Google’s IPO prospectus 21 years ago, founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin gave a flattering nod to Warren Buffett, suggesting in their letter to prospective investors that the billionaire investor was a big influence.
They titled their founders’ letter, “‘An owner’s manual’ for Google’s shareholders,” and indicated that there was a footnote worth reading.
“Much of this was inspired by Warren Buffett’s essays in his annual reports and his ‘An Owner’s Manual’ to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders,” the footnote said.
More than two decades later, Buffett is showing that the admiration goes both ways. Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett’s holding company, revealed late Friday that it owns a stake in Google parent Alphabet worth roughly $4.3 billion as of the end of the third quarter, making it the firm’s 10th largest equity holding. It marks one of Berkshire’s most significant technology bets in years — Apple’s is the firm’s largest holding — and sent sent Alphabet shares up 3% on Monday.
It’s a rare move by Berkshire, which for decades has hesitated to buy into high-growth tech companies, and represents the first time the firm is known to have a stake in Google. Buffett, 95, is stepping down as CEO at the end of this year, with longtime lieutenant Greg Abel set to take the reins.
In 2017, Buffett said he regretted not buying shares in Google years earlier when Berkshire insurance subsidiary Geico was paying hefty fees for advertising on its network. He also acknowledged missing out on Amazon, which Berkshire eventually purchased in 2019, still owning $2.2 billion worth of the e-commerce shares.
Alphabet shares are up 50% this year, after Monday’s gains, trading just shy of their all-time high reached last week. The company notched its first $100 billion revenue quarter in the third period, fueled by growth in its cloud unit, which houses its artificial intelligence services. The cloud division also has a $155 billion backlog from customers and an updated line of chips that sets it apart from other AI players.
Alphabet’s valuation remains lower than many of its AI-driven megacap peers. The stock trades at about 26 times next year’s earnings, compared with Microsoft at 32, Broadcom at 51 and Nvidia at 42, according to FactSet.
Page and Brin are now ranked seventh and eighth, respectively, on the Forbes billionaires list, just behind Buffett at sixth.
The Google founders cited Buffett multiple times in the company’s IPO prospectus. In one instance, Page and Brin were effectively warning investors that quarterly financials may not always look pretty.
“In our opinion, outside pressures too often tempt companies to sacrifice long term opportunities to meet quarterly market expectations,” they wrote. “In Warren Buffett’s words, ‘We won’t “smooth” quarterly or annual results: If earnings figures are lumpy when they reach headquarters, they will be lumpy when they reach you.'”
In explaining the logic behind a dual-class stock structure, which gave the founders outsized voting control, they cited Berkshire as one of the companies to previously and successfully implement it, along with media companies like The New York Times, the Washington Post (the newspaper now owned by Jeff Bezos) and Wall Street Journal publisher Dow Jones (now owned by News Corp.)
“Media observers have pointed out that dual class ownership has allowed these companies to concentrate on their core, long term interest in serious news coverage, despite fluctuations in quarterly results,” Page and Brin wrote. “Berkshire Hathaway has implemented a dual class structure for similar reasons.”