Grading preseason bold predictions for all 32 NHL teams
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Greg Wyshynski
Before the 2025-26 NHL season — on Sept. 24, to be exact — we made bold predictions for all 32 teams. With a quarter of that season now in the books, it’s time to check the validity of those claims.
At least one of them was already proven true. At least one of them was very, very wrong.
Here’s a progress report on our bold predictions. We’ll rate each prediction on a 1-10 scale, with “1” indicating that the prediction absolutely will not come true and “10” indicating that I absolutely nailed it. Enjoy!
Atlantic Division
Bruins will trade Pavel Zacha
Considering the Bruins’ massive trade-off last season, seeing Zacha shipped out during their “retool” made sense. He’s a center who plays in all facets of the game and really found his offensive stride since arriving in Boston. He’s signed through next season at a very affordable $4.75 million annually against the salary cap.
But his availability is based on a few factors. Like whether Boston sees Zacha as part of their long-term solutions. Like if Boston is contending for a playoff spot or not. Like if someone in this center-starved league calls up GM Don Sweeney and makes him an offer he can’t refuse.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 7
Rasmus Dahlin is a Norris Trophy finalist
Dahlin is skating with a lot on his mind. He revealed before the season that his fiancée, Carolina Matovac, received a heart transplant this summer following a health scare while on vacation. Earlier this month, he returned to Sweden to care for her, missing three games. The support he received from the hockey community was inspiring and a reminder of how far we’ve come in consideration of a player’s life outside the NHL.
In the 17 games Dahlin has played, he has 14 points with 13 of them assists. That places him in the top 10 among defensemen in scoring. That he plays for a Sabres team once again struggling to contend shouldn’t impact his Norris candidacy, as he finished sixth for the award last season. If there’s an analytic argument for his defense to go along with strong offensive numbers, he’s got a shot at being one of three finalists.
The real concern with this bold prediction is that for the foreseeable future, there might be only one Norris Trophy finalist spot open to someone who isn’t Cale Makar or Quinn Hughes.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 5
0:18
Rasmus Dahlin notches goal on the power play
Rasmus Dahlin capitalizes on the power play
Steve Yzerman fails upward
Naturally I predicted that the Red Wings’ general manager would abdicate the throne in the season where Detroit raced to first place in the Atlantic. I still don’t have too much faith in the “Yzerplan” — rough starts for top prospect Marco Kasper and goaltending solution John Gibson haven’t helped — but Stevie Y likely won’t be going anywhere if the Red Wings improve on their .524 points percentage from last season.
Of course, that’s going to depend on whether Detroit avoids its traditional second-half tailspin. Over the past two seasons, the Red Wings are 16-23-4 after March 1. If they fall short of the playoffs and are worse than last season’s record … well, he’s been the GM since 2019. How many more chances does the franchise legend get?
Bold prediction confidence rating: 4
Sergei Bobrovsky gets a “Marchand” deal
Regular-season Bob is the guy who is 9-5-0 through 14 games with a .883 save percentage and a 2.80 goals-against average. He does what he needs to in order to collect points to make the postseason. Which is where he becomes Playoff Bob, the guy who has led the Panthers to three straight Stanley Cup finals and two straight championships. The guy with the .914 save percentage and a 2.20 GAA in 23 games last postseason.
The Panthers just re-signed a guy named Sam Bennett who is productive in the regular season and a monster in the playoffs. I imagine they’ll do the same with Bobrovsky. The Panthers also just re-signed a 37-year-old to a six-year contract that pays him $5.25 million against the cap annually. I imagine they’ll do the same with Bobrovsky. Like Brad Marchand, he doesn’t want to leave, either.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 8
Kaiden Guhle earns leaguewide appreciation
Well, it turns out Kaiden Guhle played five games before having surgery for a partially torn abductor muscle and will miss at least two months of the season.
Now, that does leave enough time in the season for him to make an impact and earn the notice he deserves. Or, failing that, the Canadiens miss him desperately while he’s on the mend and he’s appreciated for his absence.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 6
Dylan Cozens sets new career highs
The targets for this bold prediction: 31 goals and 68 points, set when Cozens was a 21-year-old center with the Sabres in 2022-23.
The progress so far: Cozens has seven goals and seven assists in 19 games. That puts him right around 30 goals but well short of his career point total. Praying for a hot streak at some point this season.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 3
Lightning will win the Atlantic Division
The Lightning face-planted out of the gate with a 1-4-2 record and then suffered a slew of injuries to players like Victor Hedman, Ryan McDonagh and Anthony Cirelli. They’ve now won nine of 12 games and some of the aspects of their team that were struggling — like their power play — might be rounding into form. At some point it would be nice if Brayden Point looked like Brayden Point again, but he’s got time.
Stathletes projects the Lightning to have an 81.5% chance of finishing first in the Atlantic Division. We’ll take it.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 8
Leafs will retain Nick Robertson
Given everything that swirled around the Maple Leafs in the first month of the season, this prediction reads like an act of cowardice. Where was “they fire Craig Berube before Christmas?” Or “the Leafs miss the playoffs outright?”
Instead, I predicted that Nick Robertson, a player perpetually in trade rumors, would remain with the team rather than being shipped out. He’s still there, playing in 19 of their 20 games and has 11 points. But who knows where the wacky season in Toronto takes him.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 7
Metropolitan Division
Canes will win the Eastern Conference
The Hurricanes’ regular-season success has become so expected under coach Rod Brind’amour that their 13-5-1 start is just background noise in the Eastern Conference right now — despite not having star defenseman Jaccob Slavin for all but two games of it. They’ve made the conference final in three of the seven years that Rod the Bod has coached them, including two of the last three seasons in which they were eliminated by the Florida Panthers. No shame in that. Ask Edmonton.
Their issue in the playoffs remains their goal-scoring. They averaged 3.12 goals per game during that three-year span in the postseason, down from 3.27 over 246 regular-season games from 2022-25.
Absent a star scorer like Jake Guentzel or Mikko Rantanen, perhaps that defect prevents them from playing for the Stanley Cup again. Or perhaps the early returns on the Carolina offense this season (3.63 goals per game over 19 games) underscore how deep their goal-generation goes on this edition of the Canes, indicating they have enough of it to finally break through the Eastern Conference ceiling.
All of that ignores the elephant in the room, which is that no one in the Eastern Conference seems all that formidable at the moment in comparison to the Hurricanes. Unless of course the Panthers get Aleksander Barkov back for the playoffs …
Bold prediction confidence rating: 7
Jet Greaves takes over the crease
There have been few stats more jarring than the Blue Jackets being among the leaders in team save percentage during the first 20 games of the season, given the recent effectiveness between the pipes. The goalie rotation of Jet Greaves and Elvis Merzļikins was working well, but it was becoming increasingly obvious that Greaves was outplaying his tandem partner. He had a .904 save percentage in 12 games and higher goals saved above expected.
If the crease isn’t Greaves’s now, it will be eventually. The Jackets have waited for someone to play well enough to relegate Merzļikins to a backup role, and Jet might have the fuel to do it.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 7
Jack Hughes plays 82 games
Mea culpa: I was unaware that the Devils were going to have a team dinner at a Chicago steakhouse wherein Jack Hughes would have what’s been called a “freak accident” that involved getting his finger sliced by glass. Jack had surgery and will be out a minimum of six weeks, all but assuring that New Jersey will continue to be a franchise without a 50-goal scorer or 100-point player and that his bold prediction can already be deposited in the trash.
On the plus side, Hughes was correct when he sassed reporters before the season about his offseason conditioning and perpetual injuries. There’s no accounting for freak accidents on the ice or around the glass.
Bold prediction confidence rating: ZERO
Patrick Roy coaches his last season on Long Island
I’m going to blame Matthew Schaefer for mucking up what should have been a fairly easy call here.
Roy reportedly doesn’t have a contract beyond this season. He has a new general manager in Mathieu Darche who had no hand in hiring him, and as a new general manager, he would probably like to get his own guy in there at some point. The Islanders were projected to finish with around 84 points and had a 1-in-4 chance of making the playoffs.
Then the 18-year-old first overall pick in the NHL draft shows up, plays like Cale Makar and infuses the entire organization with a youthful enthusiasm and optimism. Suddenly the Islanders are in a playoff spot and ascendant in the East.
I’m not selling on this prediction yet for the factors listed above and because it’s so early. But am I shaking a fist in the direction of Matthew Schaefer while muttering something about “these kids today.”
Bold prediction confidence rating: 5
0:56
Matthew Schaefer makes NHL history with OT winner for Islanders
Matthew Schaefer becomes the youngest player in NHL history to score an overtime goal in the regular season.
Rangers return to the playoffs
There have been stretches in the first 21 games of the season in which this prediction looked quite good, and there have been stretches in which the Rangers making the playoffs seems implausible.
Stathletes says there’s an 84.2% chance the Blueshirts make the Stanley Cup playoffs, which gives me hope. So do the seasons that goalie Igor Shesterkin and defenseman Adam Fox are having, and the seasons that players like forwards Will Cuylle and Vincent Trocheck will have when they get through the team’s early-season offensive doldrums.
And yet I worry about their depth, which was a concern before the season and a deeper one having gotten eyes on them. I worry about J.T. Miller, the Rangers captain whose offensive numbers have fallen off a cliff while fan-cams are catching him acting listless defensively. I worry that the chemistry is off and the competition is too good. But I keep the faith that Mike Sullivan and the Rangers will figure this thing out. And if they don’t, GM Chris Drury will no doubt be aggressive in trying to ensure they do.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 7
Flyers win the Gavin McKenna draft lottery
The impetus for this prediction was basically a goof on Penguins fans who thought their team would continue its downward trajectory only to end up with the first overall phenom in next year’s draft who also happens to play at Penn State. Wouldn’t it be funny if he went to the other team in the state? Ha, ha. Everyone laughs.
Well, it turns out the Penguins aren’t currently playing like a lottery team and the Flyers are stubbornly hanging tough in the Metro Division under head coach Rick Tocchet thanks to exceptional goaltending from offseason pickup Dan Vladar.
I’m heartened that the analytics community still sees the Flyers as an eventual cellar dweller. Stathletes projects them as a lottery team (89.2 points). Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic has them much lower at 81.6 points, ahead of only four other teams.
I remember sharing this prediction with someone in Philadelphia recently who said it would be ironic if the Flyers won the lottery the year in which a winger (McKenna) was top pick, given their needs at center. It’s like 10,000 spoons when all you need is a knife.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 7
Sidney Crosby plays somewhere in the playoffs this season
The true genius of this prediction was in its vagueness. Like many others, I heard the speculation that Crosby might end up leaving the Penguins if this was another lost season. That he was tired of missing out of the most important time of the NHL calendar and wasn’t going to be mired in a rebuild.
I asked Sid about that theory at the NHL Player Media Tour in September. He told me it wasn’t anything on his mind because he was optimistic that the Penguins, picked by many to finish last in the division, could return to the playoffs for the first time since 2022. Which, admittedly, seemed delusional. But it was enough for me to hedge my bold prediction, declaring that he would play in the playoffs “somewhere,” including on the off chance that would be in Pittsburgh.
What I didn’t count on was Crosby willing the Penguins into the playoffs himself. Through 19 games, the Penguins have a .632 points percentage and Crosby is leading them with 23 points. His buddy Evgeni Malkin, also the subject of trade speculation, led the team with 12 goals.
They were never going to leave Pittsburgh if the team was relevant. Through their own efforts, some Jack Adams-level coaching by Dan Muse and the second-best goaltending in the league so far, the Penguins aren’t only relevant but a team that could make the playoffs. Which would be fine by me, because Pittsburgh is — at last check — “somewhere.”
Bold prediction confidence rating: 7
Ovechkin breaks another Gretzky record
After shattering the most famous Wayne Gretzky goal-scoring record last season, Ovechkin has a chance to shatter another one this season. Gretzky scored 1,016 goals combined between the regular season and the Stanley Cup playoffs. Ovechkin needed 43 goals between the regular and postseasons to beat that mark.
Through 19 games, Ovechkin has six goals. That pace would put him under 30 goals for the season. Even with a prolonged playoff run by the Capitals, it would be hard to see him break that mark without a bigger goal cushion in the regular season. The good news is that when Ovechkin gets hot, his goal-scoring pace can get scorching.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 6
Central Division
Frank Nazar doubles his points total
With Connor Bedard having a star-making season (13 goals in 19 games) that might earn him a trip to the Olympics, whatever Frank Nazar does for the Blackhawks might be a little overlooked. He’s been great, with 13 points in 17 games and playing in all phases of the game. He briefly missed some time after taking a cross-check from Joel Farabee earlier this month, but Nazar is back and picking up points again.
He tallied 26 points in 53 games last season. At his current scoring rate, and assuming he stays in the lineup, Nazar could top 60 points. He may not be on Bedard’s line but he gets to hang with him on the power play. That’s good enough for me.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 8
0:57
Frank Nazar scores goal vs. Senators
Frank Nazar scores goal vs. Senators
Avs win the Western Conference
It’s always a nice feeling when you hitch your wagon to a bulldozer. The Avalanche started the season going 13-1-5 in their first 19 games. They led the NHL in offense and defense and had its leading scorer in points and goals (Nathan MacKinnon), its top scorer among defensemen (Cale Makar) and the fourth best team save percentage (.909) thanks to a 33-year-old journeyman having potentially the best season of his pro career (Scott Wedgewood).
What’s scary about the Avs is that there’s still so much room for improvement in players like Brock Nelson, Gabe Landeskog and Valeri Nichushkin.
The caveat here is that the Avalanche haven’t make it past the second round since winning the Stanley Cup in 2022. But so far, MacKinnon & Co. seem absolutely determined to drink of the chalice again next June.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 8
Matt Duchene regresses
It does feel a bit awkward to grade this one out with Duchene on long-term injured reserve at the moment with an undisclosed ailment. He hasn’t played since Oct. 18. Duchene had a goal and an assist in four games.
My point still stands that the departure of Mikael Granlund and Mason Marchment combined with a downgrade from his 19.7% shooting percentage means Duchene won’t hit that point-per-game pace from last season when he returns to the ice.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 8
Zeev Buium outscores Brock Faber
Through 20 games, Zeev Buium had 10 points to Brock Faber’s nine points, so let’s stop the count and call this one a win!
OK, to dig into this a little further, my prediction here was predicted heavily on Buium getting top unit power-play time, assuming that he wouldn’t produce all that much at 5-on-5 as a rookie. True to form, seven of his 10 points have come on the man advantage. He’s averaging more ice time per game (3:22) than Faber (1:04) on the power play so far this season, but his role as the quarterback for Kirill Kaprizov‘s unit isn’t cemented.
He hasn’t produced much of anything in his last 10 games heading into Wednesday night, and his overall ice time has been fluctuating. I’m concerned but confident.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 6
Andrew Brunette keeps his job
GM Barry Trotz recently said that the Predators are in a “transitional phase” as an organization but wouldn’t go as far to call it a “rebuild.” Either way, it’s clear things aren’t working under Brunette for a second straight season, which could necessitate his firing …
… only what would that accomplish? Brunette signed a four-year deal in 2024. Unless Trotz wants to add “coach” to his job title for no significant bump in pay, wouldn’t it make sense for the organization to let Brunette coach through a lost season instead of paying him not work?
The only scenarios I see in which Brunette doesn’t finish the season are if Trotz felt compelled to save the season himself or if he felt that AHL Milwaukee Admirals coach Karl Taylor was the next guy behind the bench and wanted to give him a few months of experience this season. Because even if things get bad for Nashville, that’s ultimately good in a “transitional phase,” no?
Bold prediction confidence rating: 7
Jimmy Snuggerud, Calder Trophy finalist
Snuggerud has been unremarkable during the first 20 games of the season after making a huge impression with four points in seven playoff games last season. He has five goals and six assists, skating to a minus-2. He’s played up with Pavel Buchnevich and Robert Thomas, and he’s gotten some power-play time as well.
Snuggerud faces two significant problems right now as a Calder candidate. The first is that the Blues stink, and therefore his accomplishments aren’t going to get the same attention as those rookies on contending teams. The second is that defenseman Matthew Schaefer of the Islanders and forward Ivan Demidov of the Canadiens have absolutely owned the rookie spotlight through the first quarter of the season.
Throw in a quarter of interesting rookies in goal — Yaroslav Askarov (SJS), Jakub Dobes (MTL), Jesper Wallstedt (MIN) and Arturs Silovs (PIT) — and it’s already a crowded field. But Snuggerud still has a lane to the Calder if he can pick up the scoring pace. And by that we mean lead all rookie forwards in points.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 6
The Mammoth make the playoff cut
When the Mammoth lost their third straight overtime game this week, head coach André Tourigny joked, “We’re undefeated in regulation in the last four (games). Let’s put it that way.”
To that end, the Mammoth are picking up points again after losing five of six games in regulation. That followed seven straight wins. This is what young, super-talented teams do, and Utah isn’t immune to it.
They’ve shown me enough to be confident that the sum total of this season will be a playoff appearance. Their core players are great and their young stars like Logan Cooley are constantly improving. If I have a concern, it’s in goal, where Karel Vejmelka and Vitek Vanecek are both playing below replacement levels. But I’m not giving up on them Yeti, er, yet.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 7
0:44
Clayton Keller wins it in OT for Utah
Clayton Keller wins it in OT for Utah
Kyle Connor stays, makes Marner money
After my predictions story ran on Sept. 24, Connor signed an eight-year contract extension on Oct. 8 worth $96 million, which gives him a $12 million average annual value through 2033-34.
Mitch Marner had signed an eight-year contract extension on June 30 worth $96 million, which gives him a $12 million average annual value through 2032-33.
Just a tomahawk dunk from the foul line of a prediction. I’d give this an 11 if I could.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 10
Pacific Division
Ducks are a final week elimination
The Ducks have been an early-season revelation as new head coach Joel Quenneville unlocked their offense to the tune of 3.63 goals per game, third in the league. Young stars like Leo Carlsson and Cutter Gauthier were among the NHL’s top scorers. Chris Kreider and Jacob Trouba were playing like they wanted to make the Rangers regret forcing them out of MSG. Anaheim sat atop the Pacific Division, looking like they’ve turned the corner.
Stathletes gives Anaheim a 67% chance of making the playoffs, which tells you that this early-season sprint by the Ducks isn’t an aberration. But contending for and making the playoffs are two different things. One assumes the Oilers will do what they usually do: start slow and then catch fire to finish in the top three in the division. The Kings are solid. The Golden Knights haven’t truly hit their stride. The wild card could be crowded with teams like the Mammoth, Wild and Kraken.
But the reason I’m sticking with a near-miss by these Ducks: They don’t defend at a playoff level yet. Which is fine, because a lot of them are still ducklings. Lukas Dostal is good enough to carry them to the bubble, but it’ll eventually pop days before the postseason.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 7
Nazem Kadri will be traded
The Flames had the worst record in the NHL through 21 games, with just a .310 points percentage. They might be the only team in the league for whom you could say the season was already lost, sitting 10 points out of the final wild-card spot and 11 points out of third place in the Pacific on Nov. 19.
As one would expect, the trade rumor industrial complex is feasting on Flames content. Pending UFA defenseman Rasmus Andersson has been the subject of speculation for most of the year. Versatile forward Blake Coleman, signed through 2026-27, could be a coveted addition. But it’s Kadri that continues to enchant fans whose teams need a No. 2 center, with his unique mix of skill and snarl. He has limited trade protection.
TSN’s Darren Dreger said the Flames aren’t shopping Kadri, who is signed through 2028-29 at a solid cap hit ($7 million annualy), specifically noting that “Flames ownership” wants to keep him around. So that’s discouraging, but not nearly as discouraging as the results the Flames aren’t getting on the ice. Moving him might just eventually make more sense than keeping him around if some contender sees him as the final piece of a championship puzzle.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 6
Connor McDavid signs a team-friendly, three-year extension
Connor McDavid ended his contract drama by signing an extension on Oct. 6. Was it team-friendly, as predicted? Yes, as McDavid signed for much less than market value, insofar as such a thing could exist for the best hockey player on the planet. The Oilers inked him to a deal that carries an average annual value of $12.5 million, which is $1.5 million less annually than teammate Leon Draisaitl.
Was it three years? No, it was not. McDavid surprised many by taking an even shorter short-term deal with Edmonton, giving them a three-year window — this season, plus two more — in which to finally win a Stanley Cup with McDavid.
So, in the end, partial credit.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 8
0:39
McDavid scores absurd spinning backhand goal for Oilers
Connor McDavid puts defender Denton Mateychuk in a spin cycle and backhands an unbelievable goal past Jet Greaves.
Eliminate the Oilers in the first round
Stop us if you’ve heard this one before: The Kings are an excellent defense team (sixth in the NHL) that doesn’t generate enough goal scoring (26th). They have a .600 points percentage so far in Anze Kopitar‘s farewell tour and are looking like a playoff team again.
Again, the law of averages would indicate that the Kings won’t lose to the Oilers in a fifth straight opening-round series. This might be the best year to catch Edmonton, with a roster that might not match the depth of the ones that rolled to the Stanley Cup Final in consecutive seasons.
In hindsight, I goofed up this prediction with specificity. I should have said “the Kings advance further in the playoffs than the Oilers” on the off chance Edmonton doesn’t qualify. Which, given the current state of things …
Bold prediction confidence rating: 7
Macklin Celebrini hits 90 points
What a season so far for Celebrini. At one point he led the NHL in points as he powered the Sharks to respectability for the first time in years. No one on the team is more deserving of the giant teal shark jaws necklace that Ryan Reaves is forcing players of the game to wear while topless during postgame interviews.
Celebrini had 30 points in his first 20 games. Based on his current scoring pace, Celebrini would end up in the neighborhood of 123 points in his second NHL season. That’s not exactly going to tamp down the Sidney Crosby comparisons.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 9
Kraken are the trade deadline’s top seller
The Kraken have been better than expected at the start of the season, amassing a .605 points percentage in 19 games and sitting in a playoff spot as play began on Thursday. New coach Lane Lambert has them playing a confident and effective defensive game.
But Seattle doesn’t exactly generate all that much offense (28th in the NHL). Does that mean they eventually slip down the standings in a competitive division and conference, or do they remain close enough in the playoff hunt that they aren’t looking to move any of their half-dozen pending free agents like Jaden Schwartz, Jordan Eberle, Mason Marchment or Jamie Oleksiak?
Bold prediction confidence rating: 5
Elias Pettersson cracks 30 goals again
Free of J.T. Miller’s dressing room tormenting, many expected this to be a bounce-back campaign for Pettersson on the Canucks. His offensive numbers are up year-over-year, with 19 points in 21 games. Unfortunately, his goal-scoring rates are more aligned with last season (0.8 goals per 60 minutes) than when he was good for 30 goals in a season. Pettersson had six goals in those 21 games, which projects to around 24 for the season.
I never thought I’d say this, but I’d much rather Elias Pettersson have Kiefer Sherwood‘s goal total right now.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 4
Knights make the conference finals
It’s hard to get a handle on how good the Golden Knights can be given their lineup absences, which have included Mark Stone, Adin Hill, Noah Hanifin and William Karlsson.
We know how incredible Jack Eichel has been (24 points in 19 games) and that Mitch Marner is still doing his 200-foot player thing (21 points, plus-10). We also know that Shea Theodore has stepped up big time in the absence of Alex Pietrangelo and that Ivan Barbashev and Pavel Dorofeyev have absurd shooting percentages. We know they are adept at picking up points in the regular season, placing second in the Pacific through 19 games.
If they’re at full capacity in the postseason, I think the Golden Knights can emerge from the Pacific this season, especially if Mark Stone can go. They’re fundamentally sound and physical as they come. But yeah, I’m a little worried we’ll never see them at full capacity.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 8
It’s time for Texas to pack up.
The Longhorns plummeted to No. 17 on Tuesday night in the College Football Playoff selection committee’s third of six rankings, indicating that even if they run the table and punctuate their résumé with a win against No. 3 Texas A&M, they might still be locked out.
Notre Dame, though, should buy some furniture and move in. At No. 9 — ahead of No. 10 Alabama — the selection committee continued to reward the two-loss Irish for how they’re playing — not who they’re beating. No. 10 Alabama has four wins against CFP top-25 opponents, including the committee’s No. 4 team Georgia, No. 14 Vanderbilt, No. 20 Tennessee and No. 22 Mizzou, which snuck back into the ranking this week. Notre Dame’s only win against a CFP-ranked team is against No. 15 USC.
While the changes at the top were minimal, No. 24 Tulane is now the flavor of the week in the Group of 5 race after Navy knocked South Florida out of the same spot.
With only three Saturdays remaining before Selection Day, there are still games that can change the picture entirely, which leaves hope for some teams hovering on the bubble (here’s lookin’ at you, Miami).
The Bubble Watch accounts for what we have learned from the committee so far — and historical knowledge of what it means for teams clinging to hope. Teams with Would be in status below are in this week’s bracket based on the committee’s third ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed Last team in and First team out. These are the true bubble teams hovering around inclusion. Teams labeled Still in the mix haven’t been eliminated, but have work to do. A team that is Out will have to wait until next year.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they would receive, ranked from the most to least, based on this week’s committee ranking.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Last team in: Alabama. The loss to Oklahoma didn’t knock the Tide out of the committee’s top 12, but it put No. 10 Alabama in must-win mode and will keep them ranked behind the Sooners. The Tide have only one SEC loss and still have the best chance of any team to reach the conference championship game (71.6%), according to ESPN Analytics.
First team out: Vanderbilt. No. 14 Vandy jumped ahead of the three-loss Longhorns despite the head-to-head loss to Texas, but remains a long shot for the field as an at-large bid. The Commodores would need to beat Kentucky and Tennessee — plus hope there is some chaos above them. Maybe — maybe — if Bama loses to Auburn in the Iron Bowl, Miami loses to Pitt, and BYU loses to Cincinnati — it can open the door, but clearly multiple things need to work in their favor.
Still in the mix: None.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas
Big Ten
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
Last team in: Oregon. This could change quickly if Oregon loses at home to USC on Saturday, as there are questions in the room about the Ducks’ No. 31 schedule strength. The Nov. 8 win at Iowa was impressive, but the Hawkeyes are now a four-loss team and dropped out of the top 25. The Ducks also have a double-digit home loss to Indiana, which is why their chances of reaching the Big Ten title game are only 12%.
First team out: USC. Like Oregon, USC just boosted its résumé with a gritty, close win against a talented Iowa team that fell out of the ranking with its fourth loss. The Trojans’ two losses were by a total of 12 points to Illinois and Notre Dame — and were both on the road. USC has a critical win against No. 18 Michigan, which boosts its status and gives the Trojans a tiebreaker in the Big Ten standings. If USC can win at Oregon (and avoid an embarrassing home loss to UCLA), the Trojans can unseat the Ducks as the Big Ten’s last team in. They would likely finish behind Notre Dame, though, because of the head-to-head result.
Still in the mix: Michigan. The difference between No. 18 Michigan and No. 17 Texas is that the Wolverines are still mathematically eligible to reach the Big Ten title game with a 3.6% chance, according to ESPN Analytics. The Wolverines avoided elimination Saturday with a narrow 24-22 win at Northwestern. They still have a chance to beat the committee’s No. 1 team in rival Ohio State, and nobody in the country would have a better win if that happens. If Michigan can run the table, it would have one of the best two-loss résumés in the country but would be ranked behind USC unless the Trojans lose again. If USC loses to Oregon, and Oregon loses to Washington — and Michigan runs the table — the Wolverines will have a strong case to be the Big Ten’s third team in. The Week 2 loss to Oklahoma looks better now that the Sooners are a top-10 team.
Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Washington, Wisconsin
Big 12
Would be in: Texas Tech
Last team in: Texas Tech. At No. 5, the Red Raiders are within arm’s reach of a first-round bye and have the best chance of winning the Big 12 (69.5%), according to ESPN Analytics. Texas Tech has a bye this week but can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game if both Cincinnati and Arizona State lose. The Oct. 18 loss to Arizona State won’t keep Texas Tech out of the CFP if it finishes as a two-loss Big 12 runner-up, given how highly the committee has regarded Texas Tech to this point. The chances of that became even better after Arizona State appeared in the ranking at No. 25, easing some of the pain of that loss. The Red Raiders end the regular season at 4-7 West Virginia.
First team out: BYU. The Cougars put it all together during Saturday’s dominant win against TCU, but they would be excluded from the playoff today in order to make room for one of the five highest ranked conference champions. BYU still has the second-best chance to reach the Big 12 title game (80.2%) behind Texas Tech (97.5%). They can clinch a spot with a win Saturday against Cincinnati and losses by both Arizona State and Houston. If BYU wins the league, it’s a CFP lock. If BYU loses, though, it would depend on how close the game is. The selection committee is unlikely to reward BYU with an at-large bid if it plays as poorly as it did against Texas Tech during the regular season.
Still in the mix: Arizona State, Cincinnati, Utah. According to ESPN Analytics, Utah still has an 11.9% chance to reach the Big 12 championship, followed by ASU (8.4%) and Cincinnati (1.9%).
Out: Arizona, Baylor, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
ACC
Would be in: Miami
Last team in: Miami. The No. 13 Canes are listed here because they are the selection committee’s highest-ranked ACC team and are still mathematically eligible to reach the conference championship game. Until the participants of that game are clear, the committee’s highest-ranked ACC team will continue to appear here. With six teams still in contention, the most fair representative is the committee’s. Still, Miami’s best chance at reaching the CFP right now is through an at-large bid because the Canes only have a 7.1% chance to reach the ACC title game. To get that at-large bid, Miami still needs to beat both Virginia Tech and Pitt and hope for losses above it to move into the top 10. The ACC champion will earn the No. 11 seed and the Group of 5 champion will have the No. 12 seed, so Miami needs to jump to No. 10 by Selection Day. It’s not inconceivable if Alabama loses to Auburn, BYU loses to Cincinnati and Utah loses to either K-State or at Kansas. It will take more than one of those things — if not all three. The question will be if the committee ever revisits Miami’s head-to-head win against Notre Dame in the season opener. The Canes would likely have to creep closer to the Irish in their ranking for them to be comparable enough to use that tiebreaker. Georgia Tech can clinch a spot in the game with a win against Pitt on Saturday, and Virginia can clinch with losses by Duke, Pitt and SMU.
First team out: Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets beat a 1-10 Boston College team by two points in spite of themselves and are a win away from a guaranteed appearance in the ACC championship game. They’ve also got a chance to earn a top-5 win in the regular-season finale against Georgia. If Georgia Tech doesn’t beat Georgia, it would need to win the ACC to reach the playoff because a three-loss ACC runner-up is out.
Still in the mix: Duke, Pitt, SMU, Virginia. Virginia has the best chance to reach the ACC title game (77.7%); SMU is third (38%), followed by Duke (11%), Miami and Pitt (7%).
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Independent
Would be in: Notre Dame. At No. 9 and ahead of two-loss Alabama, Notre Dame is winning the eye test, because it is ranked behind Alabama in both Strength of Record and Strength of Schedule. Alabama has the No. 4 schedule in the country, while the Irish are No. 29. Notre Dame’s best wins are against USC, Navy and Pitt, with only No. 15 USC ranked this week. As long as the Irish end the season with wins against Syracuse and Stanford, their place in the playoff should be secure.
Group of 5
Would be in: Tulane. The Green Wave have decent wins against Northwestern, Duke and Memphis, and the best combination of eye test and résumé of the current contenders. Tulane’s No. 71 schedule strength is better than James Madison (No. 119), North Texas (No. 127) and Navy (No. 74). Tulane and North Texas are the most likely teams to play for the American Conference championship, but North Texas has the best chance to win the league (61.4%), according to ESPN Analytics.
Still in the mix: James Madison, Navy, North Texas. Of these teams, JMU has the best strength of record (No. 24) and game control (No. 40) ranks, but the worst strength of schedule (No. 119). Navy has the best win — against South Florida — and the best loss (to Notre Dame), but lost to North Texas.
Bracket
Based on the committee’s third ranking, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Georgia
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Tulane (American champ) at No. 5 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
No. 11 Miami (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Oregon
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 4 Georgia
No. 11 Miami/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Oregon winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
With two weeks left in the regular season, what was once a vague picture of the College Football Playoff is finally coming into view.
Ohio State and Indiana look like sure things from the Big Ten. Georgia, Texas A&M and Ole Miss have all but punched their playoff tickets. Notre Dame and Texas Tech feel good about their odds, but all of that depends on something critical happening these last two weeks that can be boiled down to two simple words: avoid chaos.
Ah, but chaos is certainly possible.
Is Miami a contender? Can the Canes slip into the ACC title game mix?
Is Texas Tech guaranteed a bid? What happens if BYU keeps its stellar season going?
The ACC is ground zero for chaos and everyone from 9-1 Georgia Tech to 5-5 Duke still has a shot at winning the conference.
In the Big Ten, Oregon and USC will face off in what might be a de facto play-in game for the playoff.
And remember last week when Oklahoma earned a statement win against Alabama that appeared to shore up a playoff spot for the Sooners? Well, that dance card is only good as long as Oklahoma beats Missouri this week.
It’s late November, with just enough season behind us to feel as if we’ve got a real understanding of what’s ahead and just enough left on the docket to upend the whole picture and inject a fresh dose of head-spinning into the mix. — David Hale
Jump to:
Breakout players | BYU-Cincinnati
What’s at stake? | Quotes of the week
Top five breakout players this season
Trinidad Chambliss, QB, Ole Miss: One of the great plot twists of this college football season has been a little-known transfer from Division II Ferris State stepping in and leading the Rebels to a 10-1 record. Lane Kiffin’s new dual-threat playmaker won a D-II national title last season and has shown no fear in moving up to SEC ball, ranking seventh nationally with 3,101 total yards, 20 total touchdowns and only four turnovers since taking over for injured starter Austin Simmons. The No. 6 Rebels struck gold with Chambliss as well as 1,110-yard rusher Kewan Lacy, a Missouri transfer, in their efforts to reload on offense and get into the CFP.
Arvell Reese, LB, Ohio State: Reese entered this season with only five career starts over two seasons with the Buckeyes, eager to finally become a full-time starter for the defending national champions. The 6-foot-4, 243-pound junior is quickly playing his way into projected top-10 draft pick status as one of the most versatile defensive playmakers under first-year coordinator Matt Patricia. Reese has produced a team-high 58 tackles with 18 pressures, 10 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks as a fast, powerful off-ball linebacker who’s just as gifted at rushing off the edge for the No. 1 scoring defense in FBS.
David Bailey, OLB, Texas Tech: Bailey didn’t earn All-ACC honors last season at Stanford but was highly coveted in the transfer portal by the Red Raiders as an impact pass rusher with big-time potential. Bailey has been worth every penny, leading the country with 12.5 sacks and 61 pressures through 11 games, while playing alongside Romello Height and Lee Hunter on one of the top defensive lines in the sport. Bailey is performing like a first-round talent for a No. 5-ranked Texas Tech squad determined to win the program’s first Big 12 championship.
Cashius Howell, DE, Texas A&M: The former Bowling Green transfer had a good debut season with the Aggies in 2024, but Howell has totally raised his game in his second year in the SEC. The 6-2, 248-pound senior has been a consistently elite pass rusher for the undefeated Aggies with 11.5 sacks and 37 pressures, and could end up being a first-round pick next spring.
Ahmad Hardy, RB, Missouri: Hardy exceled during his freshman season at UL Monroe and continues to be one of the great transfer portal gets for the Tigers. He’s leading the country with 1,346 rushing yards and 15 TDs, and has forced 72 missed tackles, according to ESPN Research. Hardy just had another career-best day Saturday with a 300-yard effort against Mississippi State after already rushing for 250 yards against Louisiana, plus he has five 100-yard performances this season. — Max Olson
How could BYU-Cincinnati affect the Big 12 title race?
Texas Tech and BYU, the Big 12’s remaining one-loss teams, appear to be on course to meet again in the championship game. For them, it’s simple: win and you’re in. But as BYU learned last season when it was in the same spot through 10 games, simple doesn’t mean easy.
If the Cougars win at Cincinnati on Saturday, it would eliminate the Bearcats. Then BYU would be, at minimum, a win against UCF away from the title game. But the Cougars could also clinch a spot this weekend with two scenarios: 1) A win plus losses by Arizona State (at Colorado) and Houston (vs. TCU); or 2) A win and an Arizona State loss, plus a Utah win (Kansas State).
If BYU loses to Cincinnati, then all bets are off. Utah, Houston, Arizona State and Cincinnati are all mathematically alive. Which means that all over them can still cling to CFP hopes, as far-fetched as they might be. This is one of the obvious benefits of the playoff format. It keeps more teams relevant later in the season and ensures meaningful games across the board into the final weeks. — Kyle Bonagura
What’s at stake in each matchup?
USC-Oregon: To put it bluntly: a spot in the CFP. That’s what’s at stake in Eugene this week as the college football world sets its eyes on the one marquee matchup this week.
USC has only one Big Ten loss and should it beat the Ducks, it would qualify for not only its best win of the season but one of the best wins in the sport this year. The Trojans have the offense to keep up with the Ducks; the question is, what USC defense will show up Saturday? That will be the key to pulling off the upset and putting Lincoln Riley’s team in the driver’s seat for a CFP spot.
One-loss Oregon might have some more breathing room if it loses to USC, but it’s not a guarantee the Ducks will get in with two losses. At that point, the Ducks’ best win would be at Iowa (currently unranked) and would have to rank behind at least USC (and Michigan if it beats Ohio State) making their entry back into the field a tight one, should it happen.
Plus, not to mention the fact that Oregon finishes with a tricky game at Washington — a team that has been up-and-down this season but has plenty of talent and motivation to play spoiler against its rival. — Paolo Uggetti
Pitt-Georgia Tech: A week ago, Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi colorfully made the point that his team could give up 100 points to Notre Dame, but it wouldn’t change the fact that these next two games, starting with Georgia Tech, will define the Panthers’ postseason fate. Well, Pitt didn’t surrender 100, but Notre Dame did win easily, putting an even bigger spotlight on the Panthers’ need to win out if they want any hope of capitalizing on a wide-open ACC.
For Georgia Tech, the stakes are even clearer. This is the Yellow Jackets’ final ACC game of the season. Win, and they’re guaranteed a spot in Charlotte for the ACC championship. Lose and all bets are off. Tech’s defense has been a train wreck the past two games, and getting right against Pitt is essential to keep a magical season going a little longer. — Hale
SMU-Louisville: While much of the attention in the ACC has focused on Miami, Virginia and Georgia Tech, SMU still has a shot to make it to the ACC championship game for the second straight season. That is the biggest thing on the line Saturday. With only one conference loss, SMU sits in a four-way tie atop the ACC headed into the weekend. The easiest path to Charlotte is this one: SMU has to win out, and Pitt has to beat Georgia Tech on Saturday. There is another clinching scenario: SMU wins out, and Virginia Tech upsets Virginia next week.
Though the Mustangs do not control their destiny, the fact they are in the mix to play for a conference championship again speaks to the job coach Rhett Lashlee has done since SMU made the move to the ACC in 2024. SMU is not a one-trick pony (see what we did there), but is building a program meant to contend year after year.
“It is a little bit different than last year because we were in control of everything,” Lashlee said. “This year, it’s almost like a playoff scenario already. Nobody’s talking about us, and I’m totally cool with that.” — Andrea Adelson
Quotes of the week
“Brent Key, a great football coach who’s done an outstanding job,” Pitt’s Pat Narduzzi said of Georgia Tech’s fourth-year head coach. “They might as well just announce him as ACC Coach of the Year. He’s done an incredible job. Just give it to him early.”
“I think for us, these are all the same people that thought we were going to suck,” USC coach Lincoln Riley said on the 8-2 Trojans’ Week 13 appearance on College GameDay. “This is all the same people, you know, we were going to do this and USC was this and that. And so for us to pay attention to them now would be a little bit counterproductive. We haven’t forgotten that.”
Ole Miss’ Lane Kiffin on if he expects to be coaching in the Nov. 29 Egg Bowl: “Do you know something that I don’t know? Do I expect to coach next week? Why would I not expect to coach next week? I mean, I expected to coach against Florida, too. So I don’t even understand the question about how I would not expect to coach next week. Why would I [not] be at work?”
“I’ve had no discussions, not with my agent, not with the university, not with any other school, not with any NFL team, about ever going anywhere else,” said Texas’ Steve Sarkisian, who knocked down rumors around a potential departure this week. “I came here to win championships.”
Colorado’s Deion Sanders appealed for more time with the Buffaloes this week: “You’ve got the right man [for the job]. I promise you, you do. And I’m going to prove that to you. Just give me an opportunity and a little more time, and I’m going to prove that to you.”
“Does it look, feel, smell and operate like a big-time program?” James Franklin said of his plans for Virginia Tech in his introductory news conference with the Hokies. “All those things need to be in place. … I think the previous coaches here were in some challenging situations. That’s the truth of it. There’s some things that we’re going to have to look at, and it’s not just James Franklin. It’s the marketing office, the ticketing office. Everybody’s got to take some time and look in the mirror and say, ‘Are we operating like a big-time program?'”
Sports
‘You don’t want to have the same drip’: How a Houston Christian receiver became a shoe artist to the stars
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Max Olson
After Texas A&M‘s season-opening win over UTSA in August, Deacon Stanfield made his way down to a tunnel at Kyle Field. KC Concepcion met him there.
The Aggies’ new star receiver was looking to do a handoff. He passed two pairs of his team-issued Adidas cleats to Stanfield. In exchange, the artist promised he would hook him up with more of his finest work.
Custom cleats are a burgeoning business in the era of name, image and likeness, as college football players invest their own money into upgrading their in-game attire. When Concepcion and his Aggie teammates Rueben Owens II, Terry Bussey and Will Lee III are looking for something unique during their 10-0 start, they hit up their shoe guy in Houston.
“That’s the whole thing: You don’t want to look like everyone else, right?” Stanfield said. “You don’t want to have the same drip as the guy next to you.”
Stanfield has worked with Travis Hunter, Ryan Williams and Jeremiah Smith. He’s painted cleats worn by pros such as Travis Etienne Jr., Emeka Egbuka and Carlos Correa. He’s even painted custom Nikes for Caitlin Clark. He’s been customizing shoes for six years — and he just turned 20. What started as a high school hobby has evolved into a successful side hustle. When he’s not spray-painting kicks, he’s playing wide receiver and taking classes at Houston Christian. His teammates at HCU call him “The Cobbler.” Stanfield tries to slow down orders in the fall to focus on being an FCS student-athlete, but he’ll make exceptions when high-profile athletes pop up in his Instagram DMs.
He started this passion in 2019. His art teacher in junior high assigned the class to paint something on an unconventional canvas, so Stanfield tried a pair of shoes. As he watched more tutorial videos on YouTube about the customizing process, he wanted to keep learning and saved up to buy an airbrush and compressor.
“A lot of it was self-taught,” Stanfield said. “I just started, and I ruined so many shoes in the process, just messing with my own shoes.”
His father, Dusty, works in athlete marketing and helped get this hobby kick started with his connections. Deacon painted custom creations for NFL players Trayveon Williams and Case Keenum in 2020, but his first pair that garnered attention were “Duck Hunt”-themed Nike cleats for Hunter Renfrow, a pixelated tribute to the classic NES video game.
“I think with phones and devices taking up so much of their free time, it seems like kids these days are kind of delayed in finding their passion and finding what they really want to do,” Dusty Stanfield said. “So for him to figure that out, it’s something as a parent that’s very fulfilling to see.”
Deacon got opportunities to customize cleats for Etienne and several NFL players as part of the league’s “My Cause My Cleats” campaign. He has also partnered with Panini, which has flown him in for Super Bowl week each of the past three years to create custom cleats for pro athletes at their hospitality suite. Every shoe helps as Stanfield tries to grow his brand and business.
He put on a brave face in a surreal setting for a teen, joking that his “whole body was shaking” as he handed custom Nike sneakers to Eli Manning before this year’s Super Bowl in New Orleans. But nothing compared to the nerves of prepping a pair of Nike Blazer Mid ’77 for Clark to commemorate her Rookie of the Year season with the Indiana Fever.
“She is literally the definition of aura,” Stanfield said. “When she walked in, it felt like the entire room stopped talking and looked at her. When she opened them, she looked over at me and was like, ‘These are so cool. Did you make these?’ It was definitely one of the coolest experiences of my life.”
This is an enterprise that wouldn’t have been possible before the NIL era arrived and modernized college athletics in 2021. It’s run by an active college athlete and supported by athletes who finally have disposable income to spend. Stanfield’s timing couldn’t have been better. And this fall, the Aggies are keeping him busy.
Stanfield did custom sets of maroon, black and white cleats for Bussey and former A&M quarterback Conner Weigman last year and was quickly deluged with more orders. He came up with black Louis Vuitton-themed cleats for linebacker Taurean York and green camouflage cleats for Weigman.
Now he’s producing new shoes for Concepcion, the SEC’s third-leading receiver, every game this season. First it was black cleats with Chrome Hearts brand crosses and then gray Louis Vuitton cleats for the road win at Notre Dame. Stanfield got especially creative for the Aggies’ throwback uniform against Florida, painting an A-10 ‘Warthog’ shark mouth on gold cleats for Concepcion.
It’s not easy to run an airbrush-heavy business out of his Houston Christian dorm room, so Stanfield makes the 30-minute drive home to Fulshear, Texas, on Thursdays, his day off from football, to get his custom orders done out of his garage workspace.
Last Thursday, he put in another marathon session in his workshop customizing four pairs of cleats over 11 hours. Concepcion, Owens, Bussey and Lee got them back just in time to wear them for the No. 3 Aggies’ comeback win over South Carolina.
“I think it’s super cool that Coach [Mike] Elko is relaxed about that,” Stanfield said. “Some coaches won’t let their players wear anything other than black or white.”
HCU coaches have been no less supportive of Stanfield’s entrepreneurship ever since he joined the program last year. The 6-foot, 160-pound scholarship receiver is on the Huskies’ two-deep and travel squad this season and has played six games as a redshirt freshman.
He’s learned how to design mock-ups on his tablet or phone because the prep phase for customizing a shoe can be lengthy.
Stanfield starts by sanding down the shoe’s exterior and wiping it with acetone to strip the original factory finish, taping the soles and areas he won’t paint. Typically, he says, this can take up to two hours — if you’re doing it right.
Once he’s working with a clean canvas, it’s time to airbrush several layers of acrylic leather paint while often incorporating stencils. Stanfield has been doing this long enough that he can mix paint and make Aggie maroon by eyeballing it. After he’s done hand-painting and carefully detailing, the shoes get sprayed with a protective matte finish.
Stanfield can scroll through his camera roll and point to hundreds of cleats and shoes he’s customized, but nothing has gone viral such as the pair he customized for Alabama‘s Ryan Williams last season. Williams ordered a custom pair from him during his senior year of high school and asked for another with his “Hollywood” nickname painted across Nikes last season. After Williams’ breakout performance to beat Georgia, Stanfield did one more for him. Williams gave him creative license to paint whatever he liked.
Stanfield hand-painted a portrait of Williams with red braids over black Nikes. He even recreated the “SC Top 10” chain with gold and silver rhinestones. The pair took him at least 10 hours over several days to produce as he carefully painted the portrait, placed the stones and perfected the details.
Stanfield shared the shoes on his Instagram account, and Williams reposted them after Stanfield had gone to bed. Stanfield’s jaw dropped the next day when SportsCenter’s Instagram account shared his work with the world, in a post that got more than 113,000 likes.
Stanfield typically charges between $100 and $350 for these custom jobs depending on the difficulty.
Some players ship him their team-issued shoes. Others ask him to find a particular pair and add it to the bill. He’s not charging as much as many of the more established creators in this niche industry, mostly because he wants to stay affordable for high school and college athletes.
Keisean Henderson, ESPN’s No. 1 ranked quarterback recruit in the 2026 class, has ordered plenty from Stanfield, including a pair this offseason with his favorite Davy Crockett racoon-skin cap painted on the sides. The Houston commit collaborated with him again this summer on a black Louis Vuitton-style pair covered in UH emojis.
“He is one of one,” Henderson told ESPN. “He can take a thought from your mind and make it reality.”
This is how Stanfield is trying to get his foot in the door in a competitive business by connecting with the next big stars before they blow up. Stanfield did three pairs of custom cleats for Ohio State superstar Jeremiah Smith during his 7-on-7 days with South Florida Express. He would love to work with Smith again, but the Buckeyes don’t wear custom cleats during games.
Some connections endure for years and some pop up in an instant with an unexpected DM. Last summer, he was scrolling through his message requests on Instagram and spotted one from Leanna De La Fuente. She was inquiring about pricing and was looking to surprise her fiancé. When he clicked on her profile and realized she was referring to Hunter, he was astonished and immediately replied.
Stanfield shipped custom black cleats that featured Hunter’s Instagram handle. De La Fuente sent him a thank you video from the two-way star, who promised he would wear them for a game. The artist waited all season, wondering when Colorado‘s Heisman Trophy winner might break them out. Hunter saved the pair for his finale with the Buffaloes in the Alamo Bowl against BYU.
College players who can afford customs are typically wearing them for only one game to complement a specific uniform combination, while high schoolers tend to wear them all season. Henderson, the No. 4 recruit in this year’s SC Next 300, said he currently has four pairs of customs from Stanfield with more to come.
“You can stand out and express yourself without saying words,” Henderson said. “The game of football is made for you to stay in uniform. When I see the opportunity to make it my own, I try my best to showcase how I feel from my cleats.”
Back at Houston Christian, Stanfield tries his best to juggle all his responsibilities. He wore his own work, a pair of orange Louis Vuitton cleats, throughout spring and fall practice with the Huskies. Bachtel credits offensive coordinator Mike Besbitt for starting “The Cobbler” nickname in the spring, and it stuck with teammates. He’s done color swap customs for a few of them, but they know he’s already plenty busy at this time of year. The head coach would like a pair someday, too.
“I told him, ‘Look, I’m not as flashy as you. I don’t need all the Louis Vuitton and all that,'” Bachtel joked. “Just give me something we can wear in recruiting and maybe on the sidelines.”
As much as he would like to someday go full time in shoe customizing, Stanfield says he’s loving his experience in college football and not looking to fast-forward past it. Everybody tells him he’ll miss it when it’s over, so he’s trying to enjoy it. He’ll be back open for business in the offseason and eager to see what creative requests come next.
“I’ve never really thought of it as time-consuming,” Stanfield said, “because it’s a job that doesn’t feel like a job.”
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