There is rampant speculation that the government might do something to bring down energy bills in the budget next week – but what could this look like, and will other taxes go up?

The high rates people pay for heating and electricity is becoming a more salient issue as temperatures drop, and the confirmation the price cap is rising will do nothing to help public opinion on the topic.

Energy bills are also rising as a direct result of government policy, including on net zero, with some criticising Energy Secretary Ed Miliband for his stalwart defence of the project.

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Technology Secretary Liz Kendall told Sky News that the government is looking at taking “more action” on the cost of living, when asked if bills were coming down.

In their election manifesto last year, Labour promised to get energy bills down by £300 by 2030. Here’s how this year’s budget could work towards that.

Remove VAT

Currently, bill payers have to fork out 5% of their charge in VAT.

This would be an easy target for the government if it wants to knock a lump off everyone’s bills, with estimates it could save people about £80 from their annual payments.

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However, there are warnings that this cut would benefit those who spend more on energy more than the poorest households, as it is a percentage tax – which might draw criticism for not aligning with the government’s “working people” mantra.

And with budgets tight, it is unlikely the government would be able to find the estimated £2.5bn in savings from axing VAT on energy, so tax would need to be raised elsewhere to account for it.

Remove policy costs

As Sky News business and economics correspondent Paul Kelso pointed out with the announcement of the rising price cap, wholesale energy prices have fallen.

But household tariffs are going up because of government policy, according to Ofgem, Paul says, with taxpayers forking out for the Sizewell C nuclear power station, the warm homes discount and changes being made to the grid.

Some think tanks and action groups have called for these payments to be moved off bills and into general taxation – like with VAT – in a bid to make those with the “broadest shoulders” carry more of the burden.

Some estimates suggest moving policy payments off bills and to tax could save people again about £80 from their annual bill.

Combined with the VAT change, this leaves a potential for about £160 to be knocked off the average yearly bill – but the money would be raised elsewhere from the expected tax rises.

Changing net zero targets

The most unlikely measure is a change to the government’s net zero targets, but major changes to the policy could knock money off the average bill.

The cost of reaching net zero by 2030 – a key goal of Mr Miliband – is borne out in bills as the reform is being paid through levies of energy bills.

By delaying the 2030 target, it would allow costs to be spread over a longer period, with the trade-off being a longer period of time exposed to higher gas prices.

If this was imposed on Mr Miliband by the Treasury, it would raise speculation about whether he could continue as energy secretary.

There are a myriad of other problems with the energy system that are causing higher bill prices.

One is curtailment costs – about £40 a year of every bill is paid to green energy producers to stop them making electricity.

This is because the grid is so old it cannot transport power from areas like Scotland to the rest of the UK when a lot is being generated. This power also cannot be stored for reuse.

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The government is trying to resolve issues with the grid, but this is happening alongside net zero projects.

The Treasury does not comment on budget speculation.

The leading Bitcoin mining application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) manufacturer, Bitmain, which is based in China, is reportedly under investigation in the US over national security concerns.

According to a Friday Bloomberg report, an unspecified US official and six other anonymous people familiar with the matter said that Bitmain’s hardware is at the center of a federal investigation known as “Operation Red Sunset.” The investigation, led by the US Department of Homeland Security, reportedly seeks to determine whether the ASICs could be remotely controlled for spying or to sabotage the US power grid.

US authorities previously investigated Bitmain-linked Chinese chip designer Xiamen Sophgo over an alleged business relationship with US-sanctioned company Huawei in October 2024. This was followed by the US Customs and Border Protection Agency halting the delivery of thousands of Bitmain ASICs the following month. Authorities only began releasing the hardware in March this year.

Consequences for the US crypto mining industry could be far-reaching, since Bitmain controls over 80% of the Bitcoin mining ASIC market, according to a Cambridge report. Chinese dominance in the industry is even more ironclad, with both Bitmain and the second-largest manufacturer, MicroBT, based in mainland China, controlling 97% of the market share on their own.

Related: Bitmain to open first US-based ASIC chip factory: Bloomberg

In some cases, investigators even disassembled Bitmain ASICs to look for malicious capabilities, the anonymous officials told Bloomberg. They declined to say whether anything was found.

A Bitmain spokesperson told Bloomberg that it’s “unequivocally false” that the company is capable of remotely controlling its machines. Instead, the company representative claimed that it “strictly complies with US and applicable laws and regulations and has never engaged in activities that pose risks to US national security,” and is unaware of the investigation.

Donald Trump’s skin in the game

Imposing restrictive measures on Bitmain machines is also likely to lead to consequences for US President Donald Trump’s family. In August, a Bitcoin mining company backed by members of Trump’s family, American Bitcoin, acquired a fleet of 16,299 Antminer U3S21EXPH units from Bitmain.

Related: Bitcoin ASIC producer Canaan pilots US production, exits AI business

The company also inherited “substantially all” of Hut 8’s ASICs. This includes the 31,145 Bitmain Antminers S21+ machines it acquired about a year ago.

In September, American Bitcoin announced that it has “preferential access to next-generation ASIC compute infrastructure,” without explicitly citing Bitmain. US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings also reveal that American Bitcoin “paid through the pledge of Bitcoin” with a “redemption period of 24 months from each pledge date,” terms which The Guardian reports are unusually generous.

With Bitmain so dominant in the space, American Bitcoin is far from the only major US-based crypto mining company that may be affected by the findings of this investigation. The industry already got a taste of what might happen when, in mid-February, publicly traded mining companies in the US felt the effects of trade tensions between the United States and China through delays in receiving shipments of their ASICs.

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