The 2025-26 MLB free agent class is fascinating despite lacking Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani or Juan Soto, the three superstar MLB free agents of the past three winters. It’s deep in sluggers and late-game relievers, with a helping of starting pitchers and third basemen.

It feels hard to predict where players will land, and that should make this a fun offseason. The domino effect of one or two surprise signings — such as Kyle Schwarber not returning to the Philadelphia Phillies or Pete Alonso not returning to the New York Mets — will create chaos.

As always, a lot of money will be spent — not all of it wisely. Last year’s top-10 domestic free agents did pretty well, historically speaking, going from a combined 34.2 WAR in 2024 to 28.2 in 2025 to retain 82% of their value. In 2023-24, that figure was just 57% and in 2022-23, just 54%.

Let’s dig into the 2025-26 offseason with our annual free agent superlatives.

Player who might sign with a surprise team: Kyle Tucker

Tucker is the consensus top free agent, with ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranking Tucker No. 1 and projecting an 11-year, $418 million contract. Despite that lofty salary prediction, Tucker comes with some risk and isn’t on the level of some of the marquee free agents of recent seasons. Consider:

• He’s entering his age-29 season. Of the 17 previous contracts of $300 million-plus (including Manny Machado, twice), only three players were older than Tucker: Judge (who was entering his age-31 season), Trea Turner (30) and Machado’s second deal after he opted out (30). Only two others were entering their age-29 seasons: Gerrit Cole and Ohtani.

• Tucker has never had a 6-WAR season. Of those 16 previous players, only four had never had a 6-WAR season when they signed and two of those were Fernando Tatis Jr. (who had put up 6.8 total WAR in 143 career games at the time he signed) and Yoshinobu Yamamoto (coming over from Japan). The other two were Corey Seager and Rafael Devers, and the Boston Red Sox traded Devers less than two seasons into a 10-year extension.

• Tucker has had major injuries two seasons in a row. He had a right shin fracture that limited him to 78 games in 2024 and then a fracture in his right hand and a calf strain in 2025.

The high price point suggests a limited number of teams can afford Tucker. But none of the clubs with the five highest payrolls in 2025 are locks to be all-in on him. Here they are, with their current payroll situation compared with 2025 (via FanGraphs estimates):

Los Angeles Dodgers ($58 million under): With Clayton Kershaw, Michael Conforto, Chris Taylor and Kirby Yates off the payroll, the Dodgers have money to spend and a need in the outfield, but at some point, they will need the lineup to get younger. The strongest position in their farm system is outfield: Eduardo Quintero, Josue De Paula, Mike Sirota and Zyhir Hope are arguably their top four prospects.

New York Mets ($87 million under): Similar to the Dodgers, the Mets have money, but a large chunk will get chewed up if they re-sign Alonso and Edwin Diaz. While they now only have one corner outfielder in Soto after trading Brandon Nimmo to Texas, they also still need to add to the rotation and rebuild the bullpen.

New York Yankees ($33 million under): Tucker would look great in Yankee Stadium, but with Judge, Trent Grisham, Jasson Dominguez and incoming prospect Spencer Jones, the outfield is already crowded. And don’t rule out New York re-signing Cody Bellinger.

Philadelphia Phillies ($51 million under): There is a need for a productive outfield bat, but the Phillies’ top priority will be re-signing Schwarber — plus, Philadelphia has holes at catcher and in the rotation with J.T. Realmuto and left-hander Ranger Suarez also in free agency.

Toronto Blue Jays ($25 million under): My colleague Jeff Passan wrote that the Blue Jays are viewed as the favorites to land Tucker, considering they’re in win-now mode, might increase payroll and have several big-salaried players hitting free agency after 2026 (Kevin Gausman, George Springer, Shane Bieber, Daulton Varsho). But adding a $400 million contract alongside Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s $500 million deal is a lot for two players. Toronto bringing back Bo Bichette might make more sense.

So, if one of those teams doesn’t sign Tucker, where will he land? The Baltimore Orioles seemingly have money to spend but just acquired Taylor Ward and need pitching. The San Francisco Giants have had only one outfielder hit 25 home runs in a season since 2014 and could pair Tucker with Devers. The Texas Rangers will trim about $18 million in salary if they non-tender Adolis Garcia and Jonah Heim, and they need offense. The Cincinnati Reds are reportedly seeking a middle-of-the-order bat, although Joey Votto’s $225 million contract is the biggest — by far — in franchise history. The Chicago White Sox aren’t ready to win yet but maybe they can sell Tucker on their vision for the future (kind of like when the San Diego Padres signed Machado coming off a 96-loss season in 2018).

Player most likely to help the Dodgers to a three-peat: Bo Bichette

Bichette checks off all of the Dodgers’ needs:

• An upgrade at second base: Dodgers second basemen hit .239 and ranked 24th in the majors in OPS.

• A high-average hitter (.294 career average): The offense hit just .233 in the postseason — and .213 after the wild-card round. The Dodgers hit enough home runs, especially in key moments, to win the World Series, but it was the starting rotation that carried them to the title.

• A hitter in his prime (age-28 season): The offense is getting older, with Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman now in the post-peak stage of their careers.

And the money? With a projected five-year, $130 million contract, Bichette easily fits into the Dodgers’ payroll and still leaves them money to sign a closer.

Player the Reds need to roll out the red carpet for: Kyle Schwarber

The Reds made the playoffs in 2025 for the first time in a full season since 2013, so that was fun, even if they squeaked in with just 83 wins. They haven’t won a playoff game since 2012. They played in the second-easiest home run park via Statcast — yet finished just 21st in the majors in home runs. Reds DHs (they started 11 players there) ranked 22nd in the majors in OPS. Their top home run hitter, Elly De La Cruz, hit one over a 74-game stretch in the middle of the summer. And they’re sitting at about $21 million under their 2025 payroll.

Schwarber is the perfect fit for Cincinnati. But a player who just hit 56 home runs and finished second in the National League MVP voting is the perfect fit for most teams, particularly the one that employed him the past four seasons: the Phillies. Schwarber’s projected contract — four years, $128 million — is more affordable for the Reds than Tucker’s, and Schwarber is from Ohio. Though the geographic tie-in is usually overrated, maybe the Reds can use that to sell Schwarber — along with their stellar young rotation that could keep them in playoff contention for the life of that four-year contract (while the aging Phillies are maybe exiting their window to win).

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Player who could hit 40 home runs … or be the biggest bust: Munetaka Murakami

Murakami has prodigious power, setting the single-season home run record in Japan for a Japanese-born player at 22 years old when he hit 56 in 2022 for the Yakult Swallows. But after hitting .318 that season, he hit just .256 over the next three. The numbers climbed back up in 2025 — .286/.392/.659 with 24 home runs in 220 at-bats — but he comes with a lot of swing-and-miss in his game. A whole lot. Think Joey Gallo a lot.

In a league with an average strikeout rate of just under 20%, Murakami’s strikeout rate approached 30% over the past three seasons. Even more concerning were his struggles against fastballs of 93-plus mph, as he hit .095 against those in 2025 and has whiffed 37% of the time against those pitches since 2021 (the MLB average is 21%). He’ll be seeing a lot more velocity in MLB than he faced in Japan, so the concern is that he’ll struggle to make enough contact to get to his power.

On the bright side, teams are intrigued because Murakami is entering his age-26 season, making him the youngest free agent available. And the upside is legit if he can make the adjustments. He mostly played third base in Japan, but some scouts view him as a first baseman, so while he might compare to Gallo at the plate, he lacks Gallo’s defensive value. Contract estimates are all over the place, from eight years, $180 million (MLB Trade Rumors) to seven years, $154 million (FanGraphs) to five years, $80 million (ESPN).

The perfect Swiss Army knife-type player: Cody Bellinger

Pretty much every team could use an upgrade at one of its corner outfield positions. Some teams need a center fielder. Some need a first baseman. Bellinger is kind of Kyle Tucker Lite, except with more positional versatility — he played games at all of those positions in 2025 — and a much lower projected contract at six years, $165 million. Consider the past three seasons, along with 2025 percentiles rankings for range and speed, respectively (via Statcast):

Tucker: .278/.380/.511, 14.8 WAR, 26%, 26%
Bellinger: .281/.338/.477, 12.0 WAR, 93%, 72%

Tucker is the better hitter, no doubt. Bellinger is a different hitter than when he won the NL MVP in 2019 and then hurt his shoulder — now focusing on more contact at the expense of exit velocity — but he has made it work. He had enough pull-side power to hit 29 home runs with the Yankees this season, although he hit 18 of those at home. But it’s those latter two metrics that stand out: Bellinger is the superior fielder and the better runner. He’s a year older than Tucker, but I like his chances to hold his value — and at perhaps half the price it will take to sign Tucker.

That versatility means Bellinger fits a lot of teams — I’d want him as a corner outfielder, where he’s a definite plus defender. (How about a return to the Dodgers?) He’s a nice addition for the Detroit Tigers, either in center field (Parker Meadows didn’t hit much) or right field (turning Kerry Carpenter into a full-time DH). The Rangers could use him in the outfield or first base, and if the Mets don’t re-sign Alonso, Bellinger is the perfect fit as a hybrid first baseman/center fielder.

Player needed to get the Phillies over the top: Alex Bregman

The Phillies have basically run the same team out there the past three seasons, and it has worked! Only the Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers have more wins since 2023. But Philadelphia also hasn’t reached a World Series in that time, and the offense hit .199 over the past two postseasons. With that in mind, it’s time for the Phillies to change things and get some new blood in the clubhouse — and Bregman brings not only a history of winning, but the attitude to reenergize things a bit.

Signing him also makes sense for the Phillies on the field. Alec Bohm hasn’t been a good postseason hitter, with just two home runs and 14 RBIs in 38 career playoff games. He was the cleanup hitter in the NLDS against the Dodgers, despite hitting just 11 home runs in the regular season. Bregman would replace Bohm at third base and give the Phillies a more impactful hitter at the top of the lineup. If they re-sign Schwarber, Bregman could either hit third between Schwarber and Bryce Harper or move into the cleanup spot.

Teams looking for a closer will have plenty of options: Diaz, Robert Suarez, Ryan Helsley, Luke Weaver or Brad Keller. The Atlanta Braves already re-signed Raisel Iglesias. Yates is coming off a rough season with the Dodgers but had one of the best relief seasons in 2024. The most intriguing name, however, is Williams. There’s no sugarcoating his 2025 season with the Yankees: His ERA was high, he was terrible in the clutch and he allowed runs in bunches — six games allowing at least three runs, one more than in his career before 2025.

But … here comes the sugar:

• Among relievers with at least 50 innings, he was eighth in strikeout rate.

• He was sixth in swing-and-miss rate.

• His hard-hit rate allowed ranked in the 85th percentile.

• His expected batting average was .195, which ranked in the 95th percentile.

• Though he seemed like he gave up a ton of home runs, the final tally was only five.

Williams still looks like a premium reliever, maybe just not in New York. And for a team looking to go a couple of steps further, maybe one that was a reliever short in 2025 — we’re thinking of you, Seattle Mariners — Williams could be the steal of the winter.

Best free agent timing award: Tatsuya Imai

We nominated Tyler O’Neill for this award last year, and he signed a three-year, $49.5 million contract with the Orioles — and then hit .199 in 2025 while getting injured again. Imai was one of the best pitchers in Japan in 2025, with a 1.92 ERA, but getting posted immediately after Yamamoto’s postseason heroics will increase Imai’s contract offers — his projection is six years, $135 million (plus a posting fee of around $22 million based on a $135 million deal).

It all feels a little risky at that price. Imai is talented, but before 2025, his control was spotty (3.6 walks per nine in 2024, 4.1 in 2023). He relied a lot on his four-seam fastball in Japan, even though it didn’t have an elite swing-and-miss rate. Even though his fastball sits at 93-97 mph and touches 99, he will have to use his slider and splitter more often in the majors. It might all work out — and Imai is apparently not lacking in confidence — but the expectation will be a slightly lesser version of Yamamoto, and that feels optimistic.

The Pirates were reportedly very in on Josh Naylor, so the logical transition won’t be Alonso or Bellinger, but the next tier down, which is O’Hearn. The Orioles viewed O’Hearn as a platoon hitter, but he played more regularly against lefties last season and hit .278/.358/.474 against them in 109 plate appearances. It’s a small sample size, but he showed enough that he deserves the opportunity to play every day. And the Pirates are the team to give him that opportunity.

The 40-something starting pitcher to bet on: Justin Verlander

Max Scherzer did just enough in the postseason to help the Blue Jays reach Game 7 of the World Series, but Verlander quietly had the better season. It looked ugly early on, when he didn’t win one of his first 16 starts — he was 0-8 with a 4.99 ERA — but he had a 2.60 ERA over his final 13 starts to finish with a 3.85 ERA in 2025. His peripheral stats were better than Scherzer’s, and Verlander made it through the season without health issues. Given his flyball tendencies, he’s best suited for a team in a pitcher’s park — like a return to the Giants. Verlander, who turns 43 in February, is worth a flyer on a one-year deal.