Upcoming budget will be big – and Starmer has some serious convincing to do as he fights for survival

Published

16 hours ago

November 24, 2025

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Wednesday’s budget is going to be big.

It will be big in terms of tax rises, big in terms of setting the course of the economy and public services, and big in terms of political jeopardy for this government.

The chancellor has a lot of different groups to try to assuage and a lot is at stake.

“There are lots of different audiences to this budget,” says one senior Labour figure. “The markets will be watching, the public on the cost of living, the party on child poverty and business will want to like the direction in which we are travelling – from what I’ve seen so far, it’s a pretty good package.”

The three core principles underpinning the chancellor’s decisions will be to cut NHS waiting lists, cut national debt and cut the cost of living. There will be no return to austerity and no more increases in government borrowing.

Politics Live: Reeves’s ‘mansplaining’ claims are just a ‘smokescreen’, says shadow chancellor

What flows from that is more investment in the NHS, already the big winner in the 2024 Budget, and tax rises to keep funding public services and help plug gaps in the government’s finances.

Some of these gaps are beyond Rachel Reeves’ control, such as the decision by the independent fiscal watchdog (the Office for Budget Responsibility) to downgrade the UK’s productivity forecasts – leaving the chancellor with a £20bn gap in the public finances – or the effect of Donald Trump’s tariffs on the global economy.

Others are self-inflicted, with the chancellor having to find about £7bn to plug her reversals on winter fuel allowance and welfare cuts.

By not pulling the borrowing lever, she hopes to send a message to the markets about stability, and that should help keep down inflation and borrowing costs low, which in turn helps with the cost of living, because inflation and interest rates feed into what we pay for food, for energy, rent and mortgage costs.

That’s what the government is trying to do, but what about the reality when this budget hits?

This is going to be another big Labour budget, where people will be taxed more and the government will spend more.

Only a year ago the chancellor raised a whopping £40bn in taxes and said she wasn’t coming back for more. Now she’s looking to raise more than £30bn.

That the prime minister refused to recommit to his manifesto promise not to raise income tax, VAT or national insurance on working people at the G20 in South Africa days ahead of the budget is instructive: this week we could see the government announce manifesto-breaking tax rises that will leave millions paying more.

Freeze to income thresholds expected

The biggest tax lever, raising income tax rates, was going to be pulled but has now been put back in neutral after the official forecasts came in slightly better than expected, and Downing Street thought again about being the first government in 50 years to raise the income tax rate.

On the one hand, this measure would have been a very clean and clear way of raising £20bn of tax. On the other, there was a view from some in government that the PM and his chancellor would never recover from such a clear breach of trust, with a fair few MPs comparing it to the tuition fees U-turn that torpedoed Nick Clegg’s Lib Dems in the 2015 general election.

Instead, the biggest revenue raiser in the budget will be another two-year freeze on income tax thresholds until 2030.

This is the very thing that Reeves promised she would not do at the last budget in 2024 because “freezing the thresholds will hurt working people” and “take more money out of their payslips”. This week, those words will come back to haunt the chancellor.

Two-child cap big headline grabber

There will also be more spending and the biggest headline grabber will be the decision to lift the two-child benefit cap.

This was something the PM refused to commit to in the Labour manifesto, because it was one of the things he said he couldn’t afford to do if he wanted to keep taxes low for working people.

But on Wednesday, the government will announce it’s spending £3bn-a-year to lift that cap. Labour MPs will like it, polling suggests the public will not.

What we are going to get on Wednesday is another big tax and spend Labour budget on top of the last.

For the Conservatives, it draws clear dividing lines to take Labour on. They will argue that this is the “same old Labour”, taxing more to spend more, and more with no cuts to public spending.

Having retreated on welfare savings in the summer, to then add more to the welfare bill by lifting the two-child cap is a gift for Labour’s opponents and they will hammer the party on the size of the benefits bill, where the cost of supporting people with long-term health conditions is set to rise from £65bn-a-year to a staggering £100bn by 2029-30.

Mansion tax on the cards

There is also a real risk of blow-up in this budget as the chancellor unveils a raft of revenue measures to find that £30bn.

There could be a mansion tax for those living in more expensive homes, a gambling tax, a tourism tax, a milkshake tax.

Ministers are fearful that one of these more modest revenue-raising measures becomes politically massive and blows up.

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This is what happened to George Osborne in 2012 when he announced plans to put 20% of VAT on hot food sold in bakeries and supermarkets. The plan quickly became an attack on the working man’s lunch from out-of-touch Tories and the “pasty tax” was ditched two months later.

And what about the voters? Big tax and spend budgets are the opposite of what Sir Keir Starmer promised the country when he was seeking election. His administration was not going to be another Labour tax and spend government but instead invest in infrastructure to turbocharge growth to help pay for better services and improve people’s everyday lives.

Seventeen months in, the government doesn’t seem to be doing things differently. A year ago, it embarked on the biggest tax-raising budget in a generation, and this week, it goes back on its word and lifts taxes for working people. It creates a big trust deficit.

Government attempts to tell a better story

There are those in Labour who will read this and point to worse-than-expected government finances, global headwinds and the productivity downgrades as reasons for tax raising.

But it is true too that economists had argued in the run-up to the election that Labour’s position on not cutting spending or raising taxes was unsustainable when you looked at the public finances. Labour took a gamble by saying tax rises were not needed before the election and another one when the chancellor said last year she was not coming back for more.

After a year-and-a-half of governing, the country isn’t feeling better off, the cost of living isn’t easing, the economy isn’t firing, the small boats haven’t been stopped, and the junior doctors are again on strike.

The PM told me at the G7 summit in Canada in June that one of his regrets of his first year wasn’t “we haven’t always told our story as well as we should”.

What you will hear this week is the government trying to better tell that story about what it has achieved to improve people’s lives – be that school breakfast clubs or extending free childcare, increasing the national living wage, giving millions of public sector workers above-inflation pay rises.

You will also hear more about the NHS, as the waiting lists for people in need of non-urgent care within 18 weeks remain stubbornly high. It stood at 7.6m in July 2024 and was at 7.4m at the end of September. The government will talk on Wednesday about how it intends to drive those waits down.

But there is another story from the last 18 months too: Labour said the last budget was a “once in a parliament” tax-raising moment, now it’s coming back for more. Labour said in the election it would protect working people and couldn’t afford to lift the two child-benefit cap, and this week could see both those promises broken.

Can PM convince his MPs?

Labour flip-flopped on winter fuel allowance and on benefit cuts, and is now raising your taxes.

Downing Street has been in a constant state of flux as the PM keeps changing his top team, the deputy prime minister had to resign for underpaying her tax, while the UK’s ambassador to the US, Peter Mandelson, was sacked over his ties to the Jeffrey Epstein, the late convicted paedophile. It doesn’t seem much like politics being done differently.

All of the above is why this budget is big. Because Wednesday is not just about the tax and spend measures, big as they may be. It is also about this government, this prime minister, this chancellor. Starmer said ahead of this budget that he was “optimistic” and “if we get this right, our country has a great future”.

But he has some serious convincing to do. Many of his own MPs and those millions of people who voted Labour in, have lost confidence in their ability to deliver, which is why the drumbeat of leadership change now bangs. Going into Wednesday, it’s difficult to imagine how this second tax-raising budget will lessen that noise around a leader and a Labour government that, at the moment, is fighting to survive.

UK

Bodycam footage of alleged sledgehammer attack on police shown at trial of Palestine Action activists

Published

1 hour ago

November 25, 2025

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Bodycam footage of alleged sledgehammer attack on police shown at trial of Palestine Action activists

Police bodycam footage allegedly shows a Palestine Action activist attacking police with a sledgehammer during a break-in at an Israel-based defence firm’s UK site, a court has heard.

Prosecutors say six members of the group wearing red boiler suits used a prison van to gain entry to an Elbit Systems UK factory in Bristol during a “meticulously organised” attack in the early hours of 6 August last year.

Charlotte Head, 29, Samuel Corner, 23, Leona Kamio, 30, Fatema Rajwani, 21, Zoe Rogers, 22, and Jordan Devlin, 31, are jointly accused of aggravated burglary, criminal damage and violent disorder. They deny all charges.

Corner denies an additional charge of causing grievous bodily harm. He is accused of striking police sergeant Kate Evans on the back with a sledgehammer at the scene, leaving her with a fracture to her lumbar spine.

PS Evans, PC Aaron Buxton and PC Peter Adams gave evidence at Woolwich Crown Court on Monday and jurors were shown police bodycam footage of officers confronting the suspects.

Officers saw a security guard covered in foam as they arrived at the factory, where activists had allegedly splattered red paint around and were smashing the company’s property with sledgehammers, the jury heard.

One clip shows a man, allegedly Corner, swinging a sledgehammer at PC Buxton as he lay on his back amid a struggle with another suspect.

“As he has reached us he has swung the sledgehammer multiple times towards me,” PC Buxton said.

“I was scared. I believe it made contact with my right calf and my work radio. I had quite considerable pain down that area of my leg following it and also I had some bruising come up.”

PC Buxton told jurors he then saw the man strike PS Evans in the back as she was kneeling down trying to arrest another suspect.

Giving evidence, PS Evans said: “I can remember looking up and PC Adams for some reason had a shocked face on him, and then I had a pain in my back.

“It was just a massive shock vibrating through my whole back, a thud on my back through my whole body extended down to my legs.”

She added: “I think I was stunned to begin with, I didn’t know what it was, I had no idea and I can remember looking round and seeing a male with a sledgehammer behind me.”

PS Evans told jurors she thought her “spine was shattered”, saying: “I can remember putting my right foot down and pain shot up.”

When other officers arrived and helped to arrest the suspects, PS Evans went to check on Corner when he complained that his handcuffs were too tight, jurors heard.

“We still have a duty of care to make sure no one is in pain,” she said. “They seemed perfectly fine to me.”

PS Evans said that Corner was accusing officers of being “complicit in genocide” and said “something about murdering babies”.

“I said something like ‘you have just hit me with a sledgehammer’, and he didn’t recognise that at all, he just started telling me I’m complicit in genocide again,” she added.

PS Evans said she needed help getting in and out of the shower after the incident and took painkillers to deal with the “intense pain”.

Jurors have heard that PS Evans was unable to work for three months after the incident.

The court has heard that Elbit Systems UK manufactures defence technology equipment and is a UK-registered company whose parent company is based in Israel.

Jurors have been told that the allegations in this case came before Palestine Action’s proscription under terrorism laws in June.

Prosecutors told the jury that the ban is not relevant to the evidence in this case.

The trial continues.

UK

Reports of BBC coup ‘complete nonsense’, board member tells MPs

Published

4 hours ago

November 24, 2025

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Reports of BBC coup 'complete nonsense', board member tells MPs

Reports of a “board-level orchestrated coup” at the BBC are “complete nonsense”, non-executive director Sir Robbie Gibb has told MPs.

Sir Robbie, whose position on the BBC board has been challenged by critics in recent weeks, was among senior leaders, including the broadcaster’s chair, Samir Shah, to face questions from the Culture, Media and Sport committee about the current crisis.

The hearing took place in the wake of the fallout over the edit of a speech by US President Donald Trump, which prompted the resignation of the corporation’s director-general and the chief executive of BBC News, and the threat of a lawsuit from the US president.

Former editorial adviser Michael Prescott, whose leaked memo sparked the recent chain of events, also answered questions from MPs – telling the hearing he felt he kept seeing “incipient problems” that were not being tackled.

He also said Mr Trump’s reputation had “probably not” been tarnished by the Panorama edit.

During his own questioning, Sir Robbie addressed concerns of potential political bias – he left BBC News in 2017 to become then prime minister Theresa May’s director of communications, a post he held until 2019, and was appointed to the BBC board in 2021 by Boris Johnson.

“I know it’s hard to marry the fact that I spent two years as director of communications for the government… and my genuine passion for impartiality,” he said.

“I want to hear the full range of views… I don’t want the BBC to be partisan or favour any particular way.”

Asked about reports and speculation that there has been a “board-level orchestrated coup”, Sir Robbie responded: “It’s up there as one of the most ridiculous charges… People had to find some angle.

“It’s complete nonsense. It’s also deeply offensive to fellow board members… people of great standing in different fields.”

He said his political work has been “weaponised” – and that it was hard as a non-executive member of the BBC to respond to criticism.

‘We should have made the decision earlier’

Mr Shah admitted the BBC was too slow in responding to the issue of the Panorama edit of Mr Trump, which had been flagged long before the leaked memo.

“Looking back, I think we should have made the decision earlier,” he said. “I think in May, as it happens.

“I think there is an issue about how quickly we respond, the speed of our response. Why do we not do it quickly enough? Why do we take so much time? And this was another illustration of that.”

Following reports of the leaked memo, it took nearly a week for the BBC to issue an apology.

Mr Shah told the committee he did not think Mr Davie needed to resign over the issue and that he “spent a great deal of time” trying to stop him from doing so.

Is director-general role too big for one person?

Asked about his own position, Mr Shah said his job now is to “steady the ship”, and that he is not someone “who walks away from a problem”.

A job advert for the BBC director-general role has since gone live on the corporation’s careers website.

Mr Shah told the hearing his view is that the role is “too big” for one person and that he is “inclined” to restructure roles at the top.

He says he believes there should also be a deputy director-general who is “laser-focused on journalism”, which is “the most important thing and our greatest vulnerability”.

Earlier in the hearing, Mr Prescott gave evidence alongside another former BBC editorial adviser, Caroline Daniel.

He told the CMS committee that there are “issues of denial” at the BBC and said “the management did not accept there was a problem” with the Panorama episode.

Mr Prescott’s memo highlighted concerns about the way clips of Mr Trump’s speech on January 6 2021 were spliced together so it appeared he had told supporters he was going to walk to the US Capitol with them to “fight like hell”.

‘I can’t think of anything I agree with Trump on’

Mr Trump has said he is going to pursue a lawsuit of between $1bn and $5bn against the broadcaster, despite receiving an official public apology.

Asked if the documentary had harmed Mr Trump’s image, Mr Prescott responded: “I should probably restrain myself a little bit, given that there is a potential legal action.

“All I could say is, I can’t think of anything I agree with Donald Trump on.”

He was later pushed on the subject, and asked again if he agreed that the programme tarnished the president’s reputation, to which he then replied: “Probably not.”

Mr Prescott, a former journalist, also told the committee he did not know how his memo was leaked to the Daily Telegraph.

“At the most fundamental level, I wrote that memo, let me be clear, because I am a strong supporter of the BBC.

“The BBC employs talented professionals across all of its factual and non-factual programmes, and most people in this country, certainly myself included, might go as far as to say that they love the BBC.

He said he “never envisaged” the fallout that would occur. “I was hoping the concerns I had could, and would, be addressed privately in the first instance.”

Asked if he thinks the BBC is institutionally biased, he said: “No, I don’t.”

He said that “tonnes” of the BBC’s work is “world class” – but added that there is “real work that needs to be done” to deal with problems.

Mr Davie, he said, did a “first-rate job” as director-general but had a “blind spot” toward editorial failings.

UK

Police appeal after man charged with murdering two women and raping third

Published

7 hours ago

November 24, 2025

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Police appeal after man charged with murdering two women and raping third

Police have appealed for information after a man was charged with murdering two women and raping a third.

Simon Levy has been charged with murdering 53-year-old Carmenza Valencia-Trujillo who died on the Aylesbury Estate, south-east London, on 17 March, the Metropolitan Police said.

In September, Levy, of Beaufoy Road, Tottenham, north London, was charged with murdering 39-year-old Sheryl Wilkins who was found unresponsive in High Road, Tottenham, on 24 August.

He is also accused of grievous bodily harm with intent, non-fatal strangulation and two counts of rape against a third woman, who cannot be named for legal reasons, in Haringey, north London, on 21 January, police said.

The 40-year-old will appear at Westminster Magistrates’ Court on Tuesday charged with Ms Valencia-Trujillo’s murder.

He is also due to appear at the Old Bailey on Wednesday for a plea and trial preparation hearing for the murder of Ms Wilkins.

Detectives believe there may be individuals who have information relevant to this investigation – or who are yet to report incidents which have directly impacted them – and are asking for people to come forward.

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