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Day two after a budget is always an important moment.

This is when the nerds and boffins of Britain’s fiscal thinktanks assemble to deliver their snap verdict on the chancellor’s decisions.

The moment is more important than ever when, as was certainly the case this time, the budget is a big one.

So what did the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) and the Resolution Foundation make of this year’s budget?

Well, as you’d probably expect, they both fell short of distilling it into a single soundbite, but in broad terms, they both sounded somewhat positive.

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Yes, there were plenty of big provisos. The head of the IFS, Helen Miller, said Labour have broken their manifesto pledge not to raise National Insurance.

More on Budget 2025

The Resolution Foundation argued that if only the chancellor had raised the basic rate of income tax instead of freezing personal allowances, it would have made the tax rise considerably fairer and more progressive.

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Treasury minister vs Ed Conway

And that’s before one gets into the criticism of some of the other bits and pieces from the red book – the structure of the EV tax, for instance (why doesn’t it try to penalise congestion?), or of the mansion tax (why not just overhaul council tax altogether?).

But for the most part, these closely-followed institutions seemed pretty supportive of this year’s budget – more so, certainly, than they were last year.

Primarily, that’s because while the last budget left only a very thin bit of headroom against Rachel Reeves’s fiscal rules, this one was far more cautious, doubling that fiscal insurance policy to just over £21bn.

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Beth Rigby challenges Sir Keir Starmer over the budget

Yet that headroom is dependent on a couple of important factors. First, that the government will hold to its promises to keep spending growth constrained towards the end of the decade. Second, that it will be able to raise all the tax revenues it’s promising in that year.

That, in turn, gets to a deeper issue with the budget. Most of the tough stuff has been put off to the final year of the forecast – namely 2029.

That year, the government will face a squeeze at the very same moment that Britons are all asked to pay more in taxes.

And, critically, that’s the very year Labour is due to face a general election. Does it really plan to fight an election off the back of a contracting economy?

Consider, too, that for all the government’s promises to get living standards growing this parliament, they are currently only forecast to rise at the slowest rate since the 1950s – save for the pandemic and energy price shock period. The economic backdrop, in other words, is hardly rosy.

Still, for the time being, the chancellor has managed to put together a budget that has bolstered her position both in her party and in her job.

Markets remain relatively sanguine – much more so than after Rachel Reeves’s first budget last year – with bond yields lower today than before the event (albeit a little higher than yesterday).

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However, this was a complex budget. And, as with all bits of complex engineering, there remains a distinct possibility of large chunks of the budget failing to work.

But since so much of it isn’t due to kick in for a few years, it may take quite a while before we find out which bits work and which, if any, don’t.

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Girl, 12, who died after being found unresponsive at psychiatric unit failed on multiple levels, inquest finds

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Girl, 12, who died after being found unresponsive at psychiatric unit failed on multiple levels, inquest finds

A 12-year-old girl who died after an incident of self-harm was failed on multiple levels, an inquest jury has found.

Warning: This story contains references to self-harm and suicide

Mia Lucas, who died in January 2024, was found unresponsive at an NHS children’s psychiatric unit after developing a rare neurological disorder that had been left undiagnosed.

The jury at Sheffield Coroner’s Court heard the girl was found at the Becton Centre, part of Sheffield Children’s NHS Foundation Trust.

She had been placed there after being sectioned while suffering an “acute psychotic episode” during an assessment at the Queen’s Medical Centre (QMC) in Nottingham.

On Thursday, the jury found that the failure to undertake a lumbar puncture at QMC before her transfer to the Becton Centre “possibly contributed to Mia’s death”.

A lumbar puncture involves a needle being inserted into your lower back to find out if symptoms are caused by a brain or spine condition.

Mia Lucas.
Pic: Family handout/PA
Image:
Mia Lucas.
Pic: Family handout/PA

The jury also said there was a failure at the Becton Centre to respond adequately to Mia’s risk of self-harm.

Professor Marta Cohen told the jury Mia’s cause of death was “compression of the neck” but she had now added that this was caused by “acute psychosis”, which was caused by “autoimmune encephalitis”, an inflammation of the brain that can cause extreme psychiatric symptoms and is treatable.

The autoimmune encephalitis diagnosis emerged during the nine-day inquest after a pathologist revealed she had received new post-mortem results.

The revelation prompted shock in the courtroom and tears from Mia’s family members in the public gallery.

The condition was described as “complex and rare”, according to consultant paediatric neurologist Mike Taylor.

He added that there was a low level of suspicion Mia had it, while being assessed at QMC, and told the court that experts had to consider the very severe treatment side effects, which included death.

Mia’s mother, Chloe Hayes, told Sky News she was unhappy at how the Becton Centre had supervised her daughter.

Mia Lucas (right), with her mother Chloe. Pic: Family handout/PA
Image:
Mia Lucas (right), with her mother Chloe. Pic: Family handout/PA

“All they had to do was watch her. I actually never got told the truth about the attempts that Mia made [to self-harm] until after she died,” she said.

“If I’d have known the truth I wouldn’t have left Mia there. And I think she had so much to live for. I don’t think she knew what she was doing.”

In a statement, Mrs Hayes added that she wanted people to know her daughter’s extreme behaviour was only evident in the final few weeks of her life.

“For the other 12 years, she was a beautiful soul who loved life and loved her family, and that’s how we want her to be remembered,” she said, describing Mia as a “happy, fun, friendly girl who had so much to live for.”

NHS Trusts apologise for Mia’s death

In a statement, Dr Manjeet Shehmar, medical director at Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust, offered “heartfelt condolences to Mia’s family for the loss of their daughter”.

She continued: “We accept the coroner’s outcome in court today and apologise to Mia’s family for not identifying autoimmune encephalitis while she was in our care. While this is an incredibly rare condition and initial tests were negative, we recognise that further testing may have had an impact on her future, for which we are truly sorry.”

Dr Shehmar said that in future cases of suspected possible autoimmune encephalitis, a lumbar puncture will be performed.

The trust will also “strengthen training and guidance for staff internally and review current published evidence of acute psychotic episodes in children and young people”.

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Pic: Family handout/PA
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Pic: Family handout/PA

Dr Jeff Perring, executive medical director at Sheffield Children’s NHS Foundation Trust, said: “Our thoughts are with Mia’s family and everyone who is grieving her loss in such tragic circumstances.

“We are deeply sorry for Mia’s death and recognise the profound impact this has had on those who loved her.”

The trust has carried out a thorough review of Mia’s care and made “significant changes” at the Becton Centre, he added.

“We will continue to work with children, young people, their families and carers to listen to, learn and take action from their experiences.

“The inquest has been important to understand fully the circumstances surrounding Mia’s death. We will now carefully reflect on the evidence heard and the coroner’s conclusions to ensure we continue to provide safe and compassionate care.”

Anyone feeling emotionally distressed or suicidal can call Samaritans for help on 116 123 or email jo@samaritans.org in the UK. Alternatively, you can call Mind’s support line on 0300 102 1234, or NHS on 111.

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Man arrested at Manchester airport in connection with attack at Heaton Park synagogue

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Man arrested at Manchester airport in connection with attack at Heaton Park synagogue

A man has been arrested at an airport as part of the investigation into the terrorist attack at a Manchester synagogue.

The 31-year-old was detained at Manchester Airport on suspicion of the commission, preparation and instigation of acts of terrorism after arriving on an inbound flight, police said.

It brings the total number of people arrested in connection with the incident at Heaton Park Hebrew Congregation Synagogue to seven.

Jihad al Shamie launched the attack at the synagogue in Crumpsall on 2 October, driving his car at worshippers gathering on the Jewish holy day of Yom Kippur, before attacking others with a knife and trying to storm inside.

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Manchester synagogue terrorist: what we know now

Armed police shot al Shamie after he ran towards officers “aggressively” while carrying a knife and what police feared was an explosive device – later identified as a fake.

Worshippers Melvin Cravitz, 66, and Adrian Daulby, 53, were killed, with Mr Daulby being described as a “quiet hero” who leapt from his seat to block the doors of the synagogue as it came under attack.

Adrian Daulby, left, and Melvin Cravitz. Pics: Family handout/Greater Manchester Police
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Adrian Daulby, left, and Melvin Cravitz. Pics: Family handout/Greater Manchester Police

He died from a single gunshot wound to the chest fired by an armed police officer, while father-of-three Mr Cravitz died from multiple knife wounds inflicted by al Shamie, an inquest at Manchester Coroner’s Court heard in October.

The inquests into the deaths of both men have been adjourned until February next year.

Three other men were treated in hospital for serious injuries. Two have since been released, police said on Thursday.

The deadly attack rocked the local community. Pic: PA
Image:
The deadly attack rocked the local community. Pic: PA

An inquest into the death of al Shamie, a Syrian-born UK citizen, heard he was identified by his fingerprints and evidence, including his car, phone and inquiries with his immediate family in the aftermath of the attack.

At the hearing in October, Judge Alexia Durran, the chief coroner of England and Wales, said her provisional findings were that al Shamie died of gunshot wounds.

The Independent Office for Police Conduct found no misconduct in the police response.

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Synagogue attacker died of gunshot wounds

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In a statement on Thursday, Assistant Chief Constable Rob Potts, from Counter Terrorism Policing North West, said: “The loved ones of Mr Daulby and Mr Cravitz have been updated on this development, as have those who were seriously injured in the attack.

“Our investigation is continuing, and I would once again appeal for anyone with information that they think could assist our enquiries to please come forward.”

Police also said a 30-year-old man arrested on 9 October on suspicion of failing to disclose information contrary to S38B of the Terrorism Act 2000 remains on bail.

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Man jailed for keeping eight people enslaved in London car wash

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Man jailed for keeping eight people enslaved in London car wash

A man has been jailed for keeping eight people enslaved in a car wash in London.

Hewa Margai, 45, of Carshalton Road, Mitcham, London, was sentenced to eight years and six months in prison at Kingston Crown Court after being found guilty of eight counts of holding a person in slavery or servitude.

The victims, including a 15-year-old boy, are Romanian nationals who were trafficked to the UK between November and December 2020 under false promises of accommodation, fair pay, food and legitimate employment.

But after they arrived, they were forced to work at Margai’s car wash in Mitcham, housed in a small shed on-site, and routinely subjected to physical, mental and psychological abuse.

A victim was forced to sleep on a thin, dirty mattress on the floor
Image:
A victim was forced to sleep on a thin, dirty mattress on the floor

During the COVID lockdown, the victims were confined to the car wash premises without access to their travel documents.

The 15-year-old victim contacted the Metropolitan Police on 1 February 2021, saying he had been lured to the UK with the promise of a job at the car wash, but had his ID confiscated by the manager upon arrival.

When officers went to the car wash on the same day, they found two women in their 20s and five men aged in their teens, 20s and 30s, as well as the 15-year-old boy, who had been living in a shed on-site for months.

The victims spoke minimal English, but disclosed to officers via Google Translate that they had come to the UK via bus and had only worked for a few weeks before the car wash was closed due to the COVID lockdown.

After the business was closed, they said they had to pay rent to car wash owner Margai, who had confiscated their IDs.

Police found eight victims - two women, five men and a 15-year-old boy - at the car wash. Pic: Met Police
Image:
Police found eight victims – two women, five men and a 15-year-old boy – at the car wash. Pic: Met Police

A bunk bed in the shed
Image:
A bunk bed in the shed

One of the rescued women developed a severe infection, resulting in hospitalisation and multiple surgeries. This was a direct consequence of the neglect and conditions she endured during her captivity, according to police.

Margai was out of the country at the time of the raid and was arrested upon his return to the UK on 12 March 2021.

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Judge Mark Milliken-Smith KC said when sentencing Margai: “In my opinion, your desire for financial profit trumped any care for these young people, once they arrived.

“You instructed them to remain within the car wash premises … they had no choice, and you knew it.”

The judge said when police arrived at the car wash, they found that “the room was cold and damp and smelt terribly of old food and body odour”.

He added: “You intended them to live in this squalor, and you intended to profit from it,” he added. “Without their [ID] cards, they were effectively your captives, and you knew it.”

The entrance to the shed the eight victims were forced to live in
Image:
The entrance to the shed the eight victims were forced to live in

Conditions in the shed were unhygienic
Image:
Conditions in the shed were unhygienic

Detective Chief Inspector Mike Stubbins, from the Metropolitan Police’s Central Specialist Crime unit, said: “The trauma and ordeal the victims endured cannot be underestimated.

“They have shown remarkable strength throughout the investigation and played an essential role in providing evidence to ensure Margai is held accountable and receives the appropriate punishment for his crimes.”

DCI Stubbins added: “I would like to thank the investigation team, who worked tirelessly to identify the victims, ensure their safety and help repatriate them to Romania, where they could be reunited with their friends and family.

“By engaging directly with the victims, the first officers on the scene were able to gather vital information and promptly safeguard the group, resulting in an effective investigation.”

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