With the inclusion of JMU at No. 25 in the selection committee’s penultimate ranking — its first appearance all season — the possibility of the ACC being excluded from the playoff entirely just got real. Five-loss Duke is nowhere to be found in the ranking.
If Duke beats Virginia in the ACC championship game, it’s not guaranteed a spot in the 12-team field. It could open the door for two Group of 5 conference champions to compete for a national title, and if the playoff were today, it would be Tulane out of the American and JMU from the Sun Belt. The ACC’s best team, Miami, is still on the outside.
At No. 12, the Hurricanes still need some help, but Alabama increased its chances of earning a spot as the SEC runner-up with a small promotion to No. 9. The conference championship games can still alter the picture, but hope on the bubble is dwindling.
Bubble Watch accounts for what we have learned from the committee so far — and historical knowledge of what it means for teams clinging to hope. Teams with Would be in status below are looking good after the committee’s fifth ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed Still in the mix. Teams that are Out will have to wait until next year.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they would receive, ranked from the most to least, based on the selection committee’s latest ranking.
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M. Right now, the Crimson Tide are the last SEC at-large team in the field. Alabama will face Georgia in the SEC championship game, but the committee could have a difficult decision if Alabama loses and finishes as a three-loss runner-up. The Tide would have defeated Georgia during the regular season but lost to the Bulldogs in the championship game. Even in moving up a spot to No. 9 this week — ahead of Notre Dame — it still seems as if they have a little more margin for error, but how the SEC title game unfolds could matter. And how far Alabama drops could determine if the SEC gets four or five teams in the field. Alabama could finish as the committee’s highest-ranked three-loss team and still be excluded from the playoff to make room for a conference champion — as they were last year.
A Georgia win should lock up a first-round bye and a top-four finish for the Bulldogs, while a loss should still put them in position to host a first-round game. Georgia beat Ole Miss, so it would be surprising to see the Bulldogs drop below the Rebels with a loss, even though the Bulldogs would have one more defeat. With a 35-10 drubbing of Texas also on its résumé, Georgia would still have a strong enough case to finish as the committee’s top two-loss team.
At No. 6, the selection committee moved the Rebels up one spot, so clearly the departure of coach Lane Kiffin to LSU didn’t hurt Ole Miss or its chances of hosting a first-round home game. The bigger reasoning was a promotion after winning the Egg Bowl combined with Texas A&M losing to Texas.
Still in the mix: Texas. The Longhorns moved up to No. 13, but the win against Texas A&M wasn’t enough to put them into the field after the fifth ranking. Texas is stuck behind Miami in part because of its loss to Florida, which Miami beat. Even if BYU and Alabama were knocked out with title game losses, that still probably won’t be enough for Texas to get into the field because the bracket has to make room for conference champions.
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon. Both Indiana and Ohio State are CFP locks — even if they lose in the conference title game — and the runner-up will still have a strong case for a top-four finish and a first-round bye. The loser’s only loss will be to a top-two team, but it could fall behind Georgia in the top four if the Bulldogs win the SEC, and/or Texas Tech if it wins the Big 12.
The Ducks punctuated their résumé with a respectable win at Washington and should be secure in their playoff position, probably hosting a first-round game. Oregon received a small boost to No. 5 after Texas A&M lost to Texas.
Would be in: Texas Tech. The Red Raiders will play BYU in the Big 12 title game and have a great case to be in the playoff regardless of the outcome. It’s highly unlikely the selection committee would drop the Red Raiders out of the field as a two-loss Big 12 runner-up — especially considering they would have a regular-season win against the eventual conference champion. It’s also possible Texas Tech earns a first-round bye as a top-four seed if the Red Raiders win the Big 12. The committee moved them into the top four Tuesday night following Texas A&M’s loss during Rivalry Week.
Still in the mix: BYU. If BYU doesn’t win the Big 12, it’s unlikely to earn an at-large bid as the conference runner-up because the Cougars are already on the bubble and would be eliminated during the seeding process if the playoff were today. It’s not impossible, though. If Alabama finishes as a three-loss SEC runner-up, it could at least open the door for debate. BYU would have lost to Texas Tech twice, and Alabama would have defeated Georgia, the eventual SEC champ once — and it was on the road. If BYU wins the Big 12, it’s the ideal scenario for the conference because it would have two teams in the playoff.
Out: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Cincinnati, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, Utah, West Virginia
ACC
Would be in: TBD. The ACC championship game will feature Virginia and Duke, and if five-loss Duke wins, it’s possible the ACC is excluded from the playoff since Duke is not part of the CFP rankings. If Virginia wins, it will represent the league in the playoff, as the two-loss Cavaliers are ranked in the top 20. And no, Miami did not play Duke or Virginia during the regular season. Duke lost to Tulane, which is the top Group of 5 playoff contender and will reach the playoff if it wins the American. Duke also lost to UConn. And it has already lost to Virginia 34-17 on Nov. 15.
Still in the mix: Miami. The Canes are still the committee’s highest-ranked ACC team, but they would be excluded if the playoff were today to make room for a conference champion. That means the ACC winner could knock the league’s best team out of the playoff. The committee isn’t ignoring Miami’s head-to-head win against Notre Dame, but it also isn’t comparing the Canes only to the Irish. Miami also needs to earn an edge against BYU — which the committee has deemed better than Miami to this point. Miami inched closer to Notre Dame because Bama moved up Tuesday, but with neither team playing in a conference championship game, would the committee flip them on Selection Day with a BYU loss?
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Independent
Would be in:Notre Dame. The Irish have done everything right since their 0-2 start, running the table and doing it with consistent dominance regardless of opponent. At No.10, Notre Dame is in a precarious position. If BYU wins the Big 12 and enters the field, that could bump out the Irish. If BYU wins the Big 12, both BYU and Texas Tech are highly likely to make the playoff, which means someone currently in the top 10 would have to be excluded.
Group of 5
Would be in: Tulane. If the Green Wave win the American, they will represent the Group of 5 in the playoff. Tulane is currently the highest ranked Group of 5 team, but if North Texas beats Tulane on Friday, the Mean Green would be the most likely team to reach the CFP, given the overall strength of the American Conference this season.
Still in the mix: James Madison, North Texas. JMU (11-1) has clinched the East Division and a spot in the Sun Belt Conference championship game, where it will face Troy (8-4) on Friday. North Texas will face Tulane in the American, and if it wins, it’s more likely to represent the Group of 5 in the playoff than JMU because of its schedule strength. JMU could still be considered, though, if Duke wins the ACC, giving the Group of 5 two playoff teams in the 12-team field. With JMU earning a spot in the top 25 this week, the situation became more probable.
Bracket
Based on the committee’s fifth ranking, the seeding would be:
No. 12 Tulane (American champ) at No. 5 Oregon No. 11 Virginia (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Texas A&M No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Oregon winner vs. No. 4 Texas Tech No. 11 Virginia/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Georgia No. 10 Notre Dame/No. 7 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 2 Indiana No. 9 Alabama/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
CHARLOTTE, N.C. — Three-time Daytona 500 winner Denny Hamlin outlined the precarious situation facing NASCAR teams, testifying Tuesday in the federal antitrust trial against the stock car series that the race team he co-owns spent more than $700,000 to the series in 2022 alone and how agreeing to its charter proposal last fall would have been like signing his own “death certificate.”
Hamlin was the first witness called when testimony began Monday in the antitrust case brought by 23XI Racing, which is owned by Hamlin and Basketball Hall of Famer Michael Jordan, and Front Row Motorsports, owned by fast-food franchiser Bob Jenkins. The two teams contend that NASCAR is a monopoly that has handcuffed teams with a no-win revenue model.
Hamlin returned to the stand for more than three hours and was asked about line items in 23XI Racing’s budget. He noted how more than $703,000 three years ago was spent on costs to NASCAR ranging from entry fees, credentials for team members to enter the track and even access to Internet signals. He also said he and Jordan spent $100 million to build 23XI and “all it takes is one sponsor to go away and all our profit is gone.”
All 15 of NASCAR’s teams had been vocal for over two years that the last charter agreement made it impossible for them to turn a profit and they demanded four changes in prolonged negotiations. When the final offer came from NASCAR and lacked most of what the teams asked for, 23XI and Front Row refused to sign and instead sued.
23XI has turned a profit in all but one of its five seasons, but its financial success is largely a product of Jordan’s star power drawing top-dollar sponsors. Plaintiffs’ attorney Jeffery Kessler told the jury Monday that a NASCAR-commissioned study found that 75% of teams lost money in 2024.
Hamlin testified that the TV deal NASCAR signed ahead of the 2025 season has not been a boon to race teams because of a shift toward streaming services and big-ticket sponsors want to be on television. He also referred to a meeting with NASCAR chairman Jim France, who indicated teams are spending too much and it should only cost $10 million per car. Hamlin testified it costs $20 million.
“We cannot cut more. Tell me how to get my investment back? He had no answer,” Hamlin said.
As for refusing to sign the charter agreements last fall, Hamlin said the last-ditch proposal from NASCAR “had eight points minimum that needed to be changed. When we pointed that out we were told ‘Negotiations are closed.'”
“I didn’t sign because I knew this was my death certificate for the future,” he said, later adding: “I have spent 20 years trying to make this sport grow as a driver and for the last five years as a team owner. 23XI is doing our part. You can’t have someone treat you this unfairly and I knew It wasn’t right. They were wrong and someone needed to be held accountable.”
Under cross-examination, Hamlin was asked why he paints a rosier picture of NASCAR on podcast appearances. He replied that he is regurgitating NASCAR talking points because any negative comments can lead to retribution.
“You can take all my things out of context and paint a picture that everything is fine,” he said. “The reality is, (being) negative affects me in (technical inspection), getting called to the hauler, NASCAR not liking what I said.”
The trial is expected to last two weeks.
NASCAR is owned and operated by the Florida-based France family, which founded the series in 1948. Kessler said over a three-year period almost $400 million was paid to the France Family Trust and a 2023 evaluation by Goldman Sachs found NASCAR to be worth $5 billion. The pretrial discovery process revealed NASCAR made more than $100 million in 2024, while Jenkins testified in a deposition he has lost $60 million over the last decade and $100 million since starting his team in 2004.
NASCAR contends it is doing nothing wrong and has not restrained trade or commerce by its teams. The series says the original charters were given for free to teams when the system was created in 2016 and the demand for them created a market of $1.5 billion in equity for chartered organizations.
Hamlin countered that 11 of the original 19 chartered organizations are out of business; all three of 23XI’s charters came from teams that ceased operations. NASCAR also said each chartered car now receives a guaranteed $12.5 million in annual revenue, up from $9 million. Hamlin testified it costs $20 million to bring a single car to the track for all 38 races and that figure does not include any overhead, operating costs or a driver’s salary.
CHARLOTTE, N.C. — The landmark federal antitrust trial against NASCAR opened Monday with three-time Daytona 500 winner Denny Hamlin breaking down in tears minutes into his testimony as the first witness in a case that could upend the venerable stock car series.
Hamlin’s 23XI Racing, which he co-owns with Michael Jordan, and Front Row Motorsports claim the series is a monopolistic bully that leaves its teams no option but to comply with rules and financing they don’t agree with.
As Jordan watched from the gallery, Hamlin began to cry and had to stop and compose himself when asked how he got into racing. He disclosed to The Associated Press last month that his father is dying, and he said on the stand he was emotional because his dad “is not in great health.”
“We got to when I was about 20 and a decision had to be made, I could keep racing or go out and work for my dad’s trailer business,” Hamlin testified, adding that he later was thinking about what retirement looked like and found a team going out of business. He needed a partner and turned to Jordan, who he had developed a friendship with when the Basketball Hall of Famer owned the Charlotte Hornets and Hamlin was a season-ticket holder.
“If I can’t be successful with Michael as a partner, I knew this was never going to work,” he said.
The references to his early days in auto racing and the sacrifices his family made were intended to show how difficult it is for both team owners and drivers to make it at the top level of the sport. He said he never would have been able to start 23XI in 2021 had he not partnered with Jordan.
Because of Jordan’s presence with the team, Hamlin testified, 23XI has turned a profit in all but one of its five seasons of operation. His attorney, Jeffrey Kessler, said in his opening statement that fast-food restaurant entrepreneur Bob Jenkins has never turned a profit since starting his Front Row team in 2004, a team that won the Daytona 500 in 2021.
Kessler said a NASCAR-commissioned study found that 75% of teams lost money in 2024 and added that over a three-year period almost $400 million was paid to the France Family Trust. He said a 2023 evaluation by Goldman Sachs found NASCAR to be worth $5 billion. NASCAR is currently run by Jim France, son of founder Bill France Sr.
“What the evidence is going to show is Mr. France ran this for the benefit of his family at the expense of the teams and sport,” Kessler said.
At the heart of the lawsuit is NASCAR’s revenue sharing model, which 23XI and Front Row argue is unfair to race teams that often operate at a loss. Hamlin testified it cost $20 million to simply bring a single car to the track over a 38-race season, not including overhead expenses such as driver salary and business operations.
“So, why would these people do this if you are just going to lose money because NASCAR isn’t giving you a fair deal?” asked Kessler, “Because you love stock car racing, and there’s nowhere else to do it.”
The charter agreements signed for this year that triggered the lawsuit guarantee the teams $12.5 million in annual revenue per chartered car. NASCAR argues the guaranteed payouts are an increase from $9 million from the previous agreement, but Hamlin noted that 11 of the first 19 chartered teams are no longer in business.
All three charters 23XI purchased came from teams that ceased operations, and Hamlin said 23XI paid $4.7 million for its first charter, $13.5 million for its second and $28 million for its third, acquired late last year. He acknowledged purchasing the third charter was a risk because of the pending litigation – and the price concerned him – but it was required if 23XI intends to build itself into a top team.
The charter system guarantees a car a spot in the field each race week as well as a percentage of the purse and gives team owners an asset to sell should they want to get out of the business.
NASCAR attorneys argued that the charter system has created $1.5 billion in equity for the 36 chartered teams. Prior to the charter system, teams raced “open,” with no guarantee they’d make the field or earn a payout.
“The France family built NASCAR from nothing. They are an American success story,” Johnny Stephenson said in the opening statement for NASCAR. Stephenson is a colleague of Christopher Yates, who had previously handled most of the courtroom arguments for the defendants.
“They’ve done it through hard work over 75 years. That’s the kind of effort that doesn’t deserve a lawsuit. That’s the kind of effort that deserves admiration.”
The case has churned through hearings and arguments for more than a year despite calls from other NASCAR teams to settle. U.S. District Judge Kenneth Bell even helped mediate a failed two-day summit in October.
A NASCAR victory could put 23XI, Front Row and their six combined cars out of business. Their charters – now being held by NASCAR – would likely be sold. The last charter went for $45 million, and NASCAR has indicated there is interest from potential buyers including private equity firms.
A win for the teams could lead to monetary damages and the potential demolition of NASCAR as it is run today. The judge has the power to unravel a monopoly, and nothing is off the table, from ordering a sale of NASCAR to the dismantling of the charter system.
Jordan’s presence factors into the trial
Jordan’s presence in the courtroom gallery near Hamlin was a factor: Among those dismissed from serving on the jury was a man who said he can’t be impartial because “I like Mike” and another who said he had Michael Jordan posters on his walls growing up. A juror said they were a North Carolina fan but noted the football team at Jordan’s alma mater is not “doing too well right now” to which the star shook his head and laughed.
NASCAR executives in the courtroom included chairman Jim France and vice chair Lesa France Kennedy, two scions of the family that founded NASCAR in 1948 and still owns it.
Hamlin will resume testimony Tuesday morning. NASCAR Commissioner Steve Phelps, 23XI minority owner Curtis Polk, France Kennedy and other top executives had to leave the courtroom after opening arguments because they are all potential witnesses.
NEW YORK — After 11 seasons as one of the NHL’s leading scorers, Mikko Rantanen has become accustomed to fame.
But infamy? Not so much, although he has experienced plenty of that this season.
Rantanen recently served the first suspension of his NHL career, having earned an automatic one-game ban for two game misconducts for physical infractions.
NHL rules state that players must go 41 games between ejections to avoid suspension. Rantanen’s second ejection, for boarding Calgary Flames forward Matt Coronato, came four days after his first ejection on a play that earned Rantanen widespread derision from fans — and one very angry coach.
On Nov. 18, Rantanen skated through a check by New York Islanders defenseman Scott Mayfield and shoved defenseman Alexander Romanov in the back, sending him violently into the end boards. As a result of that play, Romanov had shoulder surgery that will put him on the shelf for five months at a minimum.
Rantanen didn’t have a hearing with the NHL Department of Player Safety for either of these misconducts, but he heard plenty from Islanders coach Patrick Roy after the Romanov hit. It was a scene that instantly went viral: Rantanen leaving the ice after his major penalty and a red-faced Roy screaming at him from the New York bench.
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Mikko Rantanen ejected for nasty hit on Alex Romanov
Alex Romanov is left flat out on the ice after this shove in the back from Mikko Rantanen with under a minute left in regulation.
“Usually if something happens, if somebody gets pissed off, the media picks it up,” Rantanen told ESPN on Tuesday. “So I’m not really surprised it got so big.”
Roy, who called the hit “disrespectful,” yelled at Rantanen, appearing to say, “You’re not going to f—ing finish that game” in reference to the teams’ rematch scheduled for March 26 on Long Island.
Is Rantanen worried about what might happen in that game?
“No, no, no,” he said. “I’m just going to play there, play hard, play hockey and see what comes at me. But I’m a grown man. So I can stand up for myself.”
But the notoriety wasn’t only on the ice for Rantanen in 2025. Earlier this year, thanks to two blockbuster trades, he became one of the NHL’s most debated players.
RANTANEN WAS PLAYING for the Colorado Avalanche in a contract year. His salary demands remained high — rumored at the time to be around $14 million annually for one of the league’s most dominant scoring wingers and a player who helped Colorado win the Stanley Cup in 2022.
Avalanche GM Chris MacFarland shocked the hockey world by trading him to the Carolina Hurricanes in a blockbuster deal on Jan. 24 that saw Canes leading scorer Martin Necas sent back to the Avalanche. MacFarland called it a “business decision” involving a player who “had the unrestricted free agent card” but lamented losing “a superstar human being.”
However, Rantanen’s time with the Hurricanes was incredibly short. Carolina hoped to convince him to sign an extension — meeting his salary demands — and to put roots down in Raleigh. But after 13 games, the player the Hurricanes hoped could lead them to the Stanley Cup was traded again, this time to Dallas, in a deal involving young forward Logan Stankoven.
“My sense of it was that this just didn’t feel like home for him, as far as I can tell. And that’s OK. He’s making an eight-year commitment,” Carolina GM Eric Tulsky said at the time.
It was a dizzying, at times humbling, experience for Rantanen. He wanted to remain in Colorado. He learned quickly how much was out of his control. It was no surprise that Rantanen’s contract with Dallas spanned eight seasons (for $96 million total) and carried a full no-movement clause.
“You learn always from those tough moments, whether it’s on the ice or wherever in life,” he said. “You always learn from those moments when you’re going through tough times.”
The double-trade season and the new monster contract sparked questions around the NHL about whether Rantanen was in fact worth coveting. Was he a superstar away from the Avalanche? Was he a franchise-level player?
“There’s been a lot written about him. There’s been a lot said about him,” then-Stars coach Peter DeBoer said last postseason. “There’s been a lot of doubters out there, based on the situations he’s been in and how it’s looked at different points.”
Rantanen began answering those questions in the Stanley Cup playoffs, leading the Stars back to the conference finals for the third straight season — including a seven-game, first-round elimination of his friends from Colorado. Rantanen had 22 points in 18 playoff games, including one torrid stretch in which he had nine goals and eight assists in the span of six games.
DALLAS IS HOME NOW. Rantanen and his girlfriend, Susanna Ranta, got engaged in the offseason. No contract talk leaks. No trade chaos. To his relief, just playing the game.
“We’re settled and know where we’re going to be,” he said. “You don’t have to think about off-ice stuff as much. You can just focus on hockey. It’s been more comfortable.”
Rantanen’s comfort has been to Dallas’ benefit. Through 25 games, he has 33 points, including 10 goals. That includes 18 points on the Stars’ torrid power play, which ranked second to Pittsburgh heading into Tuesday’s game against the New York Rangers.
Winger Jason Robertson said having Rantanen for a full training camp was a key to that unit’s success. “You really didn’t have time to develop that look, that chemistry after the trade deadline last year,” he said.
At 5-on-5, Rantanen has found a fit with center Wyatt Johnston, who was tied with Robertson at 16 goals to lead the Stars. Like Nathan MacKinnon, the Avalanche star with whom Rantanen had explosive chemistry, Johnston is a right-shot center.
“Obviously last year I had a lot of success with playing with [Roope] Hintz and [Mikael] Granlund. Those are two lefties, so it’s not end of the world,” Rantanen said. “But playing a lot with Nate in the past as a righty, it’s more common for me to make plays and stuff. [Johnston] is a really good player. He can score goals. We find each other pretty well. Obviously, it takes some time. We haven’t played that long together, so we can still get better, but it’s going in a good direction.”
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Mikko Rantanen capitalizes on the power play
Mikko Rantanen scores on the power play for Dallas Stars
Rantanen has played with Johnston and Dallas captain Jamie Benn recently, which is to say the Finland native is not playing with his countryman Hintz. When he was traded to the Stars last season, Rantanen joined what was colloquially known as Dallas’ “Finnish Mafia,” along with Hintz, defensemen Miro Heiskanen and Esa Lindell, and Granlund, who left for Anaheim as a free agent last summer. He played on a line with Hintz and Granlund for much of the playoffs.
There are moments when the Finns flock together. Such as at the end of a recent morning skate, when they were speaking their native tongue during a Suomi-only shooting drill. But Dallas players say Rantanen also has subverted some expectations.
“Normally, most of our Finnish guys are relatively quiet and whatever. Mikko comes in here and he’s this big, loud and happy guy. Just a different dynamic,” Robertson said. “He fit in obviously very well, and everyone welcomed him in.”
Forward Tyler Seguin knew Rantanen only as an opponent before the trade. A rather large opponent, at 6-foot-4 and around 230 pounds. Seguin said having Rantanen as a teammate offered an up-close glimpse at “how thick he is and why his nickname is what it is” referring to “Moose,” Rantanen’s moniker in Colorado.
“He’s a big boy,” Seguin said.
But Seguin also appreciates what a charismatic teammate he is, too.
“I used to know him as a skilled big forward that put up a lot of offense and points with Colorado. Getting him here as a teammate, I’ve learned what a good person he is. How much he can affect our locker room with his leadership,” Seguin explained. “Sometimes, guys come in and won’t feel comfortable talking. He does. So it’s nice.”
RANTANEN BRINGS SIZE, skill and personality to Dallas. He also brings a superstar quality to the franchise as “one of the elite power forwards in the game,” as GM Jim Nill described him last March.
Dallas coach Glen Gulutzan, hired to replace DeBoer in the offseason, coached two other elite forwards on the Edmonton Oilers‘ bench as an assistant coach: Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Gulutzan said that Rantanen is “certainly there” as far as comparable star quality.
“The most interesting thing that I’ve found coaching Mikko and then coaching Leon and Connor: The similarity is their fire. Their competitiveness. And that’s what you need, right?” Gulutzan said. “They’re very hard on themselves, just to be great every night. That’s what I really noticed. I didn’t know that as much with Mikko, but now that I’ve gotten to coach him, you just see that drive and that intensity.”
Rantanen is trying to drive the Stars into the Stanley Cup Final after three straight conference finals losses, and push Dallas to its first Cup win since 1999. He has found the right fit with a team committed to him for the long term. But he learned a lesson the hard way during last season’s chaos: Take nothing for granted.
“Last year was nothing like I’ve experienced before. Hopefully it never happens again,” he said. “But if it does, I’m ready.”