The UK is “really unprepared” to fight a war and has been living on a “mirage” of military strength that was shocking to discover, interviews with almost every defence secretary since the end of the Cold War have revealed.

With Sir Keir Starmer under pressure to accelerate plans to reverse the decline, two new episodes of Sky News and Tortoise’s podcast series The Wargame uncover what happened behind the scenes as Britain switched funding away from warfare and into peacetime priorities such as health and welfare after the Soviet Union collapsed.

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This decades-long saga, spanning multiple Labour, Conservative and coalition governments, includes heated rows between the Ministry of Defence (MoD) and the Treasury, threats to resign, and dire warnings of weakness.

It also exposes a failure by the military and civil service to spend Britain’s still-significant defence budget effectively, further compounding the erosion of fighting power.

‘Russia knew’ about UK’s weaknesses

Now, with the threat from Russia returning, there is a concern the UK has been left to bluff about its ability to respond, rather than pivot decisively back to a war footing.

“We’ve been living on a sort of mirage for so long,” says Sir Ben Wallace, a Conservative defence secretary from 2019 until 2023.

“As long as Trooping the Colour was happening, and the Red Arrows flew, and prime ministers could pose at NATO, everything was fine.

“But it wasn’t fine. And the people who knew it wasn’t fine were actually the Americans, but also the Russians.”

Not enough troops, medics, or ammo

Lord George Robertson, a Labour defence secretary from 1997 to 1999 and the lead author of a major defence review this year, says when he most recently “lifted the bonnet” to look at the state of the Army, Royal Navy and Royal Air Force, he found “we were really unprepared”.

“We don’t have enough ammunition, we don’t have enough logistics, we don’t have enough trained soldiers, the training is not right, and we don’t have enough medics to take the casualties that would be involved in a full-scale war.”

Asked if the situation was worse than he had imagined, Lord Robertson says: “Much worse.”

‘I was shocked,’ says ex-defence secretary

Sir Gavin Williamson, a former Conservative defence secretary, says he too had been “quite shocked as to how thin things were” when he was in charge at the MoD between 2017 and 2019.

“There was this sort of sense of: ‘Oh, the MoD is always good for a billion [pounds] from Treasury – you can always take a billion out of the MoD and nothing will really change.’

“And maybe that had been the case in the past, but the cupboards were really bare.

“You were just taking the cupboards.”

But Lord Philip Hammond, a Conservative defence secretary from 2011 to 2014 and chancellor from 2016 until 2019, appears less sympathetic to the cries for increased cash.

“Gavin Williamson came in [to the Ministry of Defence], the military polished up their bleeding stumps as best they could and convinced him that the UK’s defence capability was about to collapse,” he says.

“He came scuttling across the road to Downing Street to say, I need billions of pounds more money… To be honest, I didn’t think that he had sufficiently interrogated the military begging bowls that had been presented to him.”

What to expect from The Wargame’s return

Episodes one to five of The Wargame simulate a Russian attack on the UK and imagine what might happen, with former politicians and military chiefs back in the hot seat.

The drama reveals how vulnerable the country has really become to an attack on the home front.

The two new episodes seek to find out why.

The story of the UK’s hollowed-out defences starts in a different era when an Iron Curtain divided Europe, Ronald Reagan was president of the US, and an Iron Lady was in power in Britain.

Sir Malcolm Rifkind, who went on to serve as defence secretary between 1992 and 1995 under John Major, recalls his time as minister for state at the Foreign Office in 1984.

In December of that year, then prime minister Margaret Thatcher agreed to host a relatively unknown member of the Soviet Communist Party Politburo called Mikhail Gorbachev, who subsequently became the last leader of the Soviet Union.

Sir Malcolm remembers how Mrs Thatcher emerged from the meeting to say: “I think Mr Gorbachev is a man with whom we can do business.”

It was an opinion she shared with her close ally, the US president.

Sir Malcolm says: “Reagan would have said, ‘I’m not going to speak to some unknown communist in the Politburo’. But if the Iron Lady, who Reagan thought very highly of, says he’s worth talking to, he must be worth it. We’d better get in touch with this guy. Which they did.

“And I’m oversimplifying it, but that led to the Cold War ending without a shot being fired.”

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In the years that followed, the UK and  much of the rest of Europe reaped a so-called peace dividend, cutting defence budgets, shrinking militaries and reducing wider readiness for war.

Into this different era stepped Tony Blair as Labour’s first post-Cold War prime minister, with Lord Robertson as his defence secretary.

Lord Robertson reveals the threat he and his ministerial team secretly made to protect their budget from then chancellor Gordon Brown amid a sweeping review of defence, which was meant to be shaped by foreign policy, not financial envelopes.

“I don’t think I’ve ever said this in public before, but John Reid, who was the minister for the Armed Forces, and John Speller, who was one of the junior ministers in the department, the three of us went to see Tony Blair late at night – he was wearing a tracksuit, we always remember – and we said that if the money was taken out of our budget, the budget that was based on the foreign policy baseline, then we would have to resign,” Lord Robertson says.

“We obviously didn’t resign – but we kept the money.”

The podcast hears from three other Labour defence secretaries: Geoff Hoon, Lord John Hutton and the current incumbent, John Healey.

For the Conservatives, as well as Rifkind, Hammond, Williamson and Wallace, there are interviews with Liam Fox, Sir Michael Fallon, Dame Penny Mordaunt and Sir Grant Shapps.

In addition, military commanders have their say, with recollections from Field Marshal Lord David Richards, who was chief of the defence staff from 2010 until 2013, General Sir Nick Carter, who led the armed forces from 2018 until 2021, and Vice Admiral Sir Nick Hine, who was second in charge of the navy from 2019 until 2022.

‘We cut too far’

At one point, Sir Grant, who held a variety of cabinet roles, including defence secretary, is asked whether he regrets the decisions the Conservative government took when in power.

He says: “Yes, I think it did cut defence too far. I mean, I’ll just be completely black and white about it.”

Lord Robertson says Labour too shares some responsibility: “Everyone took the peace dividend right through.”

A decade on from when authorities identified the emergence of “county lines” drug dealing, children exploited by the trade are now often either dead, in prison or have been sectioned with mental health problems caused by the trauma.

Sky News has spoken to parents and former child runners who say the long-term impact is devastating, as new figures show the problem shows no sign of abating.

In the last 12 months, police referred 3,200 vulnerable people, mostly children, to support services – in the latest crackdown on child exploitation within country lines gangs. Some 1,200 gang members were arrested in the same period.

“Lucy” was a drug runner featured in a Sky News film in 2018 on the exploitation of children used as drug runners.

Aged 13, she was set up to be robbed by her own gang during a trip from London to Southampton, then stabbed as punishment, and debt-bonded so she would run drugs for free. At the same age she was also made pregnant by one of the gang members.

Now in her early 20s she says the experience traumatised her, and she was sectioned with severe mental health problems.

She says: “My paranoia just overtook me. I was so paranoid all the time, like having to lock the doors, checking the windows, checking behind me walking in the street, not being able to breathe really, just constantly on edge.

“I was afraid of them finding me, or getting attacked again, or them making me work and feeling like a slave.”

Lucy currently lives in a refuge, in hiding from a violent man.

‘That’s the cruelty of it all’

Amanda Stephens’ son, Olly, had a similar experience to Lucy when he was 13. Olly was set up and robbed by his own gang on a trip to London from Reading.

Amanda says: “It wasn’t until he spoke quite honestly with the social worker, he said, Olly, you were set up. Olly thought they were his friends and that’s the cruelty of it all.”

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Olly was autistic and vulnerable to influence. Amanda noticed his group of friends changed when he moved to secondary school and his locator on his phone sometimes placed him further away from home than he should be, but he refused to say what was going on.

“We lost control completely of him as our child.”

Olly did warn his father that some children wanted to stab him – and tragically, despite his parents’ efforts to keep him safe, in January 2021, Olly was lured to a field by a 14-year-old girl, where he was stabbed to death by two boys aged 13 and 14.

Vulnerable people ‘exploited’

It was August 2015 when a report by the National Crime Agency said the Home Office had “identified a growing body of intelligence… that vulnerable young people are being exploited in order to facilitate the running of street level dealing”.

It added: “‘County Lines’ is a national issue involving the use of mobile phone ‘lines’ by groups to extend their drug dealing business into new locations outside of their home areas.”

This led to a wave of knife crime among young people, and a new law recognising the exploitation of children under the Modern Slavery Act in 2015.

Mother says her son was ‘radicalised’

One parent, “Laura”, told Sky News she felt like her son had been “radicalised” into drug dealing and acted like he was “on remote control”, once jumping out of her car on the school run after one gang member sent him a text.

Like Lucy, Laura’s son ended up being sectioned in his late teens and needing ongoing mental health support.

Every gift came at a price

Sarah, who doesn’t want us to use her surname, says her son’s involvement in county lines began when he was offered a McDonald’s aged 12, in return for running an errand.

She says every gift came at a price: “So, they would give him the trainers, give him a bike, the coat, and everything they gave him were actually in their benefit, because if he was warm, he wasn’t coming home. If he could get around faster, he could drop more. They would act like it was a gift, but, actually, you had to pay it off in bits.”

Sarah says, 10 years on, the long-term impact has been devastating.

“Currently, he’s serving a custodial sentence for possession with intent to sell. Mentally I think he’s traumatised. Physically, he has scars from knife injuries, fractures. A face that I will never recognise, because people have broken that a couple of times.”

‘The consequences are death, prison, or the loss of your sanity’

A Sky News report in 2018 called Behind County Lines, which included Lucy’s story, was part of the inspiration for a play called CODE by Justice In Motion, which tours schools and town centres.

Both Amanda and Sarah believe every child and parent should watch the production, which tells a story similar to Lucy’s of a child groomed into joining a county lines gang.

Lead actor and rapper Still Shadey, who grew up in south London, had friends exploited by county lines gangs. He says: “The outcomes are clear. The consequences are death, prison, or the loss of your sanity.”

The problem has had less publicity recently but continues to be a major focus for police with 2,300 “deal lines” closed by operations in the 12 months since July 2024, the highest annual figures since the government’s County Lines Programme began in 2019.

‘Disgusting and cowardly’

Crime and policing minister Sarah Jones said: “The exploitation of children and vulnerable people in this way is disgusting and cowardly. County lines gangs are also driving knife crime in our communities, and I want criminals to know that we will not let them get away with it. We will be relentless in going after these gangs.”

The government has already announced new offences as part of the Crime and Policing Bill, including “criminal exploitation of children”, which seek to increase convictions against exploiters and deter gangs from enlisting children. It will carry a maximum penalty of 10 years in prison.

The Princess of Wales has written about the importance of “small acts of care” at a time “when life can sometimes feel fragmented or uncertain”, ahead of her fifth annual Christmas carol service.

In the letter, which will be given to members of the congregation at Westminster Abbey on Friday evening and at services held in other parts of the country, she sets out the meaning of this year’s theme, the importance of love.

Kate writes: “At a time when life can sometimes feel fragmented or uncertain, the Christmas season invites us to remember the power of reaching out to one another with generosity of heart, understanding and hope.”

Emphasising how seemingly small, but important, those acts of kindness can be, she adds: “At its heart, Christmas speaks of love taking form in the simplest, most human ways. Not in sentimental or grand gestures, but gentle ones.

“A moment of listening, a word of comfort, a friendly conversation, a helping hand, presence. These simple acts of care might seem small, but they contribute to the beautiful tapestry of life to which we all belong.”

Kate will be joined by Prince William for the Together at Christmas service, along with other members of the royal family among the 1,600 guests at Westminster Abbey.

There will be music from performers including Hannah Waddingham, Bastille’s Dan Smith, Griff, Katie Melua and Cornish folk group, Fisherman’s Friends.

Speakers include actors Kate Winslet, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Joe Locke and comedian Babatunde Aleshe.

In London and the 15 other towns and cities across the UK where events will take place, the congregations will be made up of invited guests who have gone above and beyond to help their communities.

Praising their selfless efforts to support others, the princess stresses in her letter how Christmas is a time to remember how powerful their work really is.

“Even with all the rushing around and familiar traditions, there is a quieter sense of what it calls out in us,” she writes. “There is a softness to the season that reminds us of something easy to forget; that what we do matters.

“Our words, our choices, and even the ways we look out for one another – they ripple outward, touching lives we may never see”.

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The other services will be held in Armagh, Berkshire, Derbyshire, Dumfries, Dyfed, East Riding, Gwent, Greater Manchester, Isle of Wight, Lanarkshire, Nottinghamshire, Renfrewshire, Ayrshire, Suffolk, Wiltshire and Worcestershire and will be hosted by lord-lieutenants and supported by The Royal Foundation.

The Westminster Abbey service is to air on ITV1 and ITVX on Christmas Eve and will be repeated on Christmas Day.