We made score picks for every postseason CFB game
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Adam Rittenberg
The 12-team College Football Playoff is no longer new, but there are some different elements to consider when beginning the intrepid task of predicting every postseason game the day the pairings are announced.
For starters, there are more justifiably aggrieved teams at being left out of the 12-team CFP. Among them: Vanderbilt (10-2), BYU (11-2), Texas (9-3) and, of course, Notre Dame (10-2), which had the most bitter Sunday following the selections.
The annual coaching carousel always impacts the postseason, but this year has seen moves that have impacted the CFP unlike ever before. Ole Miss will play without former coach Lane Kiffin, while new coach Pete Golding will make his debut at the helm in the biggest game in team history. Jon Sumrall, meanwhile, will lead Tulane into its first CFP before focusing fully on his new job at Florida. James Madison is a surprise inclusion to the CFP, and coach Bob Chesney will lead the Dukes before departing for UCLA.
Several CFP teams also have coordinators moving on to head-coaching roles, including Oregon‘s Will Stein (Kentucky) and Tosh Lupoi (Cal), and Ohio State‘s Brian Hartline (South Florida). There are also the standard uncertainties around bowl games, including NFL draft declarations and transfer announcements, which haven’t kicked into high gear yet since the portal doesn’t open until January. All this makes predicting the bowl/CFP outcomes right after the pairings are revealed kind of insane, but also fun!
Don’t mortgage your house on these, but if they hit, I will accept any and all gifts and congratulations. Without further ado, from Bowl Predictions HQ in downtown Indianapolis, here are the breakdowns and picks for every college football postseason game.
Ready, set, bowl!
All times ET.
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CFP games | Title game | Bowl schedule
Friday, Dec. 19
CFP first-round game
Alabama Crimson Tide at Oklahoma Sooners
Gaylord Family – Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman, Oklahoma)
8 p.m., ABC, ESPN
The CFP begins with a rematch of a game played barely a month earlier at Bryant-Denny Stadium. I was there and came away impressed by Oklahoma’s defensive talent and layered scheme, which prevailed in a 23-21 victory. Alabama was clearly worn down toward the end of the season, not looking impressive in its victory at Auburn, and being held scoreless for more than 47 minutes against Georgia in the SEC championship. But teams that squeak into the CFP can gain some momentum from being granted a second life, and despite the head-to-head outcome in Tuscaloosa, Alabama still outgained Oklahoma 406-212 and had 11 more first downs. Quarterback Ty Simpson has a chance to reset and reclaim his accuracy, and running back Jam Miller will likely return for the CFP. Coach Kalen DeBoer and the Tide are no strangers to this stage, and they’ll find a way to win a close one in Norman.
Prediction: Alabama 20, Oklahoma 17
Saturday, Dec. 20
CFP first-round game
Miami Hurricanes at Texas A&M Aggies
Kyle Field (College Station, Texas)
Noon, ABC, ESPN
The Hurricanes can exhale after making it into the field over Notre Dame, which they beat in the season opener. Miami is one of the nation’s most talented teams. Now the Hurricanes must draw from making their first CFP appearance against another CFP newcomer in Texas A&M, which is coming off its first loss of the season. Kyle Field is always electric and should help Texas A&M in its first CFP game, but Miami should benefit from the earlier start time, rather than having to deal with the 12th Man at night. Both teams have tremendous talent at wide receiver and playmaking quarterbacks in Marcel Reed (Texas A&M) and Carson Beck (Miami). But Miami’s improved defense under coordinator Corey Hetherman should provide the Canes an edge in this game, especially after Reed has thrown six interceptions in his past five games. The Hurricanes force a late takeaway and get out of Aggieland with a win.
Prediction: Miami 31, Texas A&M 28
CFP first-round game
Tulane Green Wave at Ole Miss Rebels
Vaught Hemingway Stadium (Oxford, Mississippi)
3:30 p.m., TNT
A first-round rematch of a game Ole Miss won by 35 points back on Sept. 20 is less than ideal, but the changed circumstances around both programs add some intrigue. How will Ole Miss perform without Kiffin at the controls? Golding is a popular replacement, but he has never led this team and will be facing a future SEC competitor in Sumrall. Tulane defended North Texas extremely well in the American Conference championship game, forcing five turnovers and holding the Mean Green to seven points until the final minute of the third quarter. Golding’s defense gave Tulane problems in the first matchup, as quarterback Jake Retzlaff completed only 5 of 17 passes for 56 yards before being benched. Tulane struggled to defend Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who had 307 passing yards, 2 touchdowns and 112 rushing yards in the first meeting. Sumrall’s team will play a bit better this time, but Ole Miss overcomes a slow start to pull away behind Chambliss and running back Kewan Lacy.
Prediction: Ole Miss 34, Tulane 16
CFP first-round game
James Madison Dukes at Oregon Ducks
Autzen Stadium (Eugene, Oregon)
7:30 p.m., TNT
A year ago, the Ducks went 13-0 and received a very tough CFP draw, which resulted in a fast and humbling exit in the Rose Bowl. Oregon will be playing earlier in this year’s playoff, and coach Dan Lanning’s team is heavily favored to advance against James Madison, the Sun Belt champion. Although the Dukes are well-coached and won their final 11 games, they did so in a weaker-than-normal Sun Belt and lost at Louisville by 14 points, while also surviving a home scare against Washington State. Oregon needs no motivation after losing big to Ohio State in last season’s CFP. The Ducks should finally be healthy again at wide receiver, and quarterback Dante Moore played very well down the stretch. How Stein and Lupoi function in their dual roles is worth watching, but Oregon shouldn’t have too much trouble with JMU at thunderous Autzen Stadium.
Prediction: Oregon 38, James Madison 13
Wednesday, Dec. 31
CFP Quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
Miami Hurricanes vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
The quarters kick off with a good one, as Ohio State returns to the building where it won a CFP semifinal matchup in last season’s national title run. Despite the disappointment of the Big Ten championship game, coach Ryan Day and his team can draw upon their playoff success from last season and begin the quest to repeat. A key matchup will be Ohio State’s offensive line (which allowed five sacks to Indiana after surrendering six during the entire regular season) facing a talented Miami defensive front led by Akheem Mesidor and Rueben Bain Jr. The Buckeyes will need to run the ball effectively, especially in short-yardage situations. But they can also lean on their defense to fluster Beck and the Hurricanes a bit. Expect big games from Arvell Reese, Caden Curry and others as Ohio State moves on.
Prediction: Ohio State 27, Miami 20
Thursday, Jan. 1
CFP Quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Oregon Ducks vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
The best teams money can buy? Let’s freaking go. No two programs seem to get more flak for what they invest in their rosters than Oregon (hello, Phil Knight) and Texas Tech (howdy, Cody Campbell). But the Red Raiders and Ducks have earned their way to this stage and should deliver an incredible matchup in South Florida. Oregon has the quarterback edge with Dante Moore, who should have more wide receivers at his disposal as he faces a top-five defense in Texas Tech. The matchup of Oregon’s offensive line and Texas Tech’s defensive front should be epic. Even though Oregon has CFP experience, Texas Tech should be able to ride Shiel Wood’s defense and just enough offense to get the W.
Prediction: Texas Tech 23, Oregon 20
CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Indiana Hoosiers
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN
Indiana had barely capped off the most magical night in recent program history before coach Curt Cignetti turned his attention toward preparing (and humbling) his team before the CFP. The Hoosiers are AP No. 1 for the first time and riding high from their first outright Big Ten title since 1945. But going undefeated didn’t matter for Oregon in last season’s Rose Bowl, and Indiana must lock in for an opponent that is used to the biggest of stages. Yes, it’s Alabama, but the Hoosiers have the better quarterback in Fernando Mendoza, a much better running game with multiple options and a defense that can match up with the Tide, especially after the Ohio State win. Alabama will need some type of offensive balance to win this one, and I don’t see it happening against coordinator Bryant Haines’ ferocious defense. Indiana gets two touchdown passes from Mendoza and advances.
Prediction: Indiana 24, Alabama 16
CFP Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Ole Miss Rebels vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN
The quarterfinals end with an SEC rematch in the Big Easy, as coach Kirby Smart tries to avoid a repeat of last season’s Sugar Bowl, when Georgia had just 10 points and 62 rushing yards in a loss to Notre Dame. Anyone think Kiffin will make the trip over from Baton Rouge to watch his former team? Quarterback Gunner Stockton was making his first career start in place of the injured Beck and should be much more comfortable this time around. Stockton had his best game of the season Oct. 18 against Ole Miss, completing 26 of 31 passes for 289 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions in a 43-35 win. Georgia also is playing some of its best football collectively during the stretch run, especially a defense that struggled at times against Chambliss in the first meeting. I love this Ole Miss team, but I don’t see Georgia exiting the playoff so soon again.
Prediction: Georgia 31, Ole Miss 21
Thursday, Jan. 8
CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
Georgia Bulldogs vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
The best matchup of the entire CFP could come in the desert, featuring teams that have combined for three of the past four national championships. Ohio State and Georgia delivered a classic in the 2022 national semifinal, a game the Buckeyes largely controlled before falling 42-41 in Atlanta. Georgia has an experience edge at quarterback with Stockton over redshirt freshman Julian Sayin, but Ohio State’s wide receivers and overall defensive staff power could swing the game its way. I’m not expecting many points but Ohio State finds a few more, as kicker Jayden Fielding redeems himself after the Big Ten title game miss.
Prediction: Ohio State 19, Georgia 16
Friday, Jan. 9
CFP Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Indiana Hoosiers
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Two of the nation’s best defenses will go at it in Atlanta with a spot in the national championship game on the line. The game also pits Mendoza, the FBS leader in touchdown passes, against arguably the nation’s top defender in Texas Tech linebacker Jacob Rodriguez. Each scoring chance will be critical, as both defenses rank in the top five nationally in red zone touchdowns allowed. I could certainly see this going either way, but Indiana has a fairly substantial advantage at quarterback with Mendoza, and an underrated run game to provide balance. The Hoosiers move on to the natty.
Prediction: Indiana 20, Texas Tech 17
Monday, Jan. 19
CFP National Championship
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Indiana Hoosiers
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN
Shield your eyes, Paul Finebaum and Peter Burns, it’s an all-Big Ten national title game, featuring a rematch of the conference championship in Indianapolis. Mendoza will be playing in his hometown with a chance to cap a dream season on so many fronts for himself, his family and his Hoosiers team. But Ohio State will spoil the party in a game that will be a slightly higher-scoring version of what we saw at Lucas Oil Stadium. Jeremiah Smith, who grew up near Hard Rock Stadium, shows why he’s the best player in the sport with two second-half touchdown catches, as Ohio State repeats as national champion for the first time.
Prediction: Ohio State 24, Indiana 20
Complete bowl season schedule
Saturday, Dec. 13
Cricket Celebration Bowl
South Carolina State Bulldogs vs. Prairie View A&M Panthers
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
The Bulldogs return to the Celebration Bowl for the second straight season and for the third time in five years, while Prairie View A&M makes its debut in the game under talented first-year coach Tremaine Jackson. South Carolina State quarterback William Atkins IV, who had 16 touchdowns and only four interceptions this season, faces a Prairie View A&M defense that allowed fewer than 10 points in five of its final seven games. The Panthers are coming in hot and win a close one behind the defense and dynamic wide receiver Jyzaiah Rockwell, who catches two touchdown passes.
Prediction: Prairie View A&M 27, South Carolina State 21
Bucked Up LA Bowl
Boise State Broncos vs. Washington Huskies
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
The Broncos didn’t return to the College Football Playoff, but they still found a way to win the Mountain West for the third consecutive season. Two years ago, I picked Boise State in this game but UCLA took down the Broncos even though coach Chip Kelly had one foot out the door. Washington is a young, talented and somewhat confounding team, but I like the Huskies to use the bowl as a springboard toward 2026. Quarterback Demond Williams Jr. connects for two second-half touchdown passes as Washington pulls away late.
Prediction: Washington 37, Boise State 27
Tuesday, Dec. 16
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Troy Trojans vs. Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
The runners-up from the Conference USA (Jacksonville State) and Sun Belt (Troy) championship games meet in their home state for what should be a well-attended and fun environment in Montgomery. Troy held a second-half lead at Clemson and a really nice start to Sun Belt play, but its offense struggled to score late, including in the conference championship. Jacksonville State has been a bit more consistent and will ride running back Cam Cook, the MVP of C-USA with 1,659 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns, to a victory.
Prediction: Jacksonville State 24, Troy 20
Wednesday, Dec. 17
StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Old Dominion Monarchs vs. South Florida Bulls
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Both teams had very strong seasons, taking down Power 4 opponents in Florida (South Florida) and Virginia Tech (Old Dominion). Both are also in some degree of flux. USF coach Alex Golesh left for Auburn and won’t be coaching the bowl game. Old Dominion standout quarterback Colton Joseph, a dynamic dual threat, is set to enter the transfer portal and won’t play in the bowl. South Florida has the talent edge here after spending a good chunk of the season in the AP Top 25. Both defenses are playing very well, as Old Dominion allowed a total of 26 points in its final four games. I’m going with South Florida in a somewhat lower-scoring game.
Prediction: South Florida 24, Old Dominion 17
68 Ventures Bowl
Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns vs. Delaware Blue Hens
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
The game location certainly favors Louisiana, which makes its eighth consecutive bowl appearance and 13th since 2011, but is just 1-3 under coach Michael Desormeaux. Delaware, meanwhile, is going bowling in its first season as an FBS member. The Blue Hens have notable wins against UConn and Louisiana Tech but were pretty uneven this season, losing to Sam Houston on Nov. 15. The Ragin’ Cajuns won their final four games to get bowl-eligible, all by single digits, and will find a way in another tight one behind a balanced rushing attack.
Prediction: Louisiana 28, Delaware 24
Thursday, Dec. 18
Xbox Bowl
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Missouri State Bears
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN2
Coach Butch Jones leads Arkansas State into its third consecutive bowl game, and is 5-1 in his past six bowls. Missouri State, meanwhile, reached the postseason in its first year as an FBS member under promising coach Ryan Beard. Expect some points in this one, as the two defenses rank 105th (Arkansas State) and 109th (Missouri State) in SP+. Both teams have played a lot of one-score games, but Missouri State’s passing game will be the difference. Senior quarterback Jacob Clark has been very solid, and the Bears have five players with more than 420 receiving yards.
Prediction: Missouri State 34, Arkansas State 30
Friday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Kennesaw State Owls vs. Western Michigan Broncos
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon, ESPN
One of the top early bowl matchups features the Conference USA champ (Kennesaw State) and the MAC champ (Western Michigan), as well as two promising coaches to know in Jerry Mack and Lance Taylor. The best unit on the field is Western Michigan’s defense, as first-year coordinator Chris O’Leary has overseen a group that ranks 14th nationally in points allowed and 15th in yards allowed. Kennesaw State has been really good in close games and has a playmaker in quarterback Amari Odom, but WMU’s defense will carry the day.
Prediction: Western Michigan 28, Kennesaw State 20
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Memphis Tigers vs. NC State Wolfpack
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
The way these teams ended their regular seasons couldn’t have been more different. Memphis dropped its final three games and four of its final six after entering the AP Top 25 following a 6-0 start. Then, the Tigers lost coach Ryan Silverfield and others to Arkansas. NC State had a tough midseason stretch but won three of its final four games, including an upset of Georgia Tech. The Wolfpack haven’t won a bowl game since 2017 (Sun) and shouldn’t lack motivation in this one. Expect a big performance from quarterback CJ Bailey and the NC State offense.
Prediction: NC State 38, Memphis 27
Monday, Dec. 22
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Washington State Cougars vs. Utah State Aggies
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
The Cougars are the better team, as they put a scare into two CFP participants, Ole Miss and James Madison, and a CFP hopeful in Virginia, losing the three road games by a total of eight points. But Washington State last week was rocked by the departure of coach Jimmy Rogers to Iowa State after only one year on the Palouse. The Cougars were in a similar situation last year after coach Jake Dickert’s departure and lost the Holiday Bowl. Utah State had a nice road win against Fresno State, and played better defensively down the stretch. But I don’t expect the Cougars to splinter. They finish strong.
Prediction: Washington State 26, Utah State 20
Tuesday, Dec. 23
Bush’s Boca Raton Bowl
Toledo Rockets vs. Louisville Cardinals
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Louisville’s last trip to South Florida brought its best moment of the season, a 24-21 win against then-No. 2 Miami that put the Cardinals in the mix for the ACC title and a CFP spot. Those hopes quickly faded after a three-game ACC losing streak, but Louisville crushed rival Kentucky 41-0 in the regular-season finale, and can still finish with its third consecutive season of nine or more wins under coach Jeff Brohm. Toledo, meanwhile, lost longtime coach Jason Candle to UConn and defensive coordinator Vince Kehres to Syracuse. The Rockets’ path to success is through their defense, which ranks fourth nationally in points allowed (12.2 ppg). But Louisville should be engaged enough to finish things with a win.
Prediction: Louisville 27, Toledo 16
New Orleans Bowl
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
The good news for Southern Miss is it returns to the postseason for the first time since 2022 after improving from 1-11 last year to seven wins this fall. The bad news: Coach Charles Huff is headed for Memphis after his lone season in Hattiesburg, creating some uncertainty entering this game. Western Kentucky has steady leadership with Tyson Helton, who is 4-2 in bowls and has won eight or more games in each of the past five seasons. The Hilltoppers have been a bit erratic on offense but can lean on their defense in this one.
Prediction: Western Kentucky 31, Southern Miss 21
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Despite falling short in the Mountain West championship game, UNLV can cap a strong first season under coach Dan Mullen with its 11th win, matching last year’s Rebels and the 1984 squad for the most in team history. Ohio also had a solid season at 8-4, but the team was rocked by coach Brian Smith being placed on leave Dec. 1 with no details provided. The quarterback matchup of UNLV’s Anthony Colandrea and Ohio’s Parker Navarro should be fun, but given the uncertainty around Ohio, the Rebels get the win.
Prediction: UNLV 33, Ohio 24
Wednesday, Dec. 24
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
California Golden Bears vs. Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
What a fun matchup on the island, as former Hawai’i coach Nick Rolovich, leading Cal on an interim basis, faces his former team, led by record-setting Hawai’i quarterback Timmy Chang, who has done an outstanding job this season. It’s also a homecoming for Cal standout freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, an Ewa Beach native who faces a Hawai’i defense that allowed a total of 13 points in its final two regular-season wins (both at home). Will the Rainbow Warriors open the season with a win against Stanford and close with a win over Cal? They will, thanks to a last-minute field goal from the “Tokyo Toe,” Kansei Matsuzawa.
Prediction: Hawai’i 30, Cal 28
Friday, Dec. 26
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Central Michigan Chippewas vs. Northwestern Wildcats
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Some Big Ten teams wouldn’t get up for a post-Christmas bowl visit to Detroit and a MAC opponent, but not Northwestern. The Wildcats were elated to get bowl-eligible with a dramatic win over Minnesota at Wrigley Field, and have performed well in the postseason, winning five consecutive bowls, including the 2023 Las Vegas Bowl under coach David Braun. Central Michigan returns to the postseason for the first time since 2021 and should have the crowd edge at Ford Field. But the Chippewas really struggled against Power 4 opponents Pitt (45-17) and Michigan (63-3), and Northwestern went through a much tougher schedule.
Prediction: Northwestern 28, Central Michigan 14
Rate Bowl
New Mexico Lobos vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
When it comes to outsized coaching personalities, few bowl matchups will deliver better than Jason Eck (New Mexico) and P.J. Fleck (Minnesota). Eck, a former Wisconsin lineman who is familiar with Minnesota from his playing days, won Mountain West Coach of the Year honors in his debut season with New Mexico, which tied for first in the league and went 6-0 at home for the first time since 1934. The Lobos haven’t played in a bowl outside their home state since 2004, but will be well-represented in Phoenix. My lean is New Mexico, but Fleck is excellent in bowls, going 6-0 at Minnesota with a Rate Bowl victory in 2021. Tough call here, but I’m riding with the Lobos, who win their 10th game for the first time since 1982.
Prediction: New Mexico 24, Minnesota 20
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Florida International Panthers vs. UTSA Roadrunners
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
The vibes certainly seem better on the Florida International side. FIU won its final four games, including a triumph over Jacksonville State, to secure bowl eligibility under first-year coach Willie Simmons, who won the Celebration Bowl in 2023 at Florida A&M. UTSA coach Jeff Traylor, meanwhile, hasn’t looked happy this season, as the Roadrunners haven’t harnessed the momentum from some nice home wins over Tulane and East Carolina. UTSA has the talent edge with quarterback Owen McCown and others, but will it be truly motivated? I say yes.
Prediction: UTSA 37, Florida International 24
Saturday, Dec. 27
Go Bowling Military Bowl
Pittsburgh Panthers vs. East Carolina Pirates
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Pitt has been quite good away from home this season, sweeping its ACC road schedule at 4-0 and enduring its only stumble against West Virginia in the Backyard Brawl. The Panthers seemingly have a bright future with quarterback Mason Heintschel, running back Ja’Kyrian Turner and others set to return in 2026. East Carolina had a nice season under coach Blake Harrell, sustaining its only losses against bowl teams (NC State, BYU, Tulane, UTSA). Quarterback Katin Houser blossomed for ECU with 3,300 passing yards, and will challenge Pitt’s defense. But the Panthers have a bit too much firepower in this one.
Prediction: Pitt 34, East Carolina 28
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Clemson Tigers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Neither team entered the 2025 season expecting to finish it out in a baseball stadium in the Bronx, although at least Dabo Swinney is a Yankees fan. Penn State made a midseason coaching change, while Swinney has hinted at significant adjustments for the way his program operates. Both teams finished strong, though, as Clemson swept its final four games, and Penn State claimed its final three under interim coach Terry Smith, who will remain on staff with new coach Matt Campbell. Opt-outs likely will factor into this matchup, given the NFL hopefuls on both teams. The location favors Penn State, which will play hard for Smith and win a low-scoring contest.
Prediction: Penn State 20, Clemson 16
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
UConn Huskies vs. Army Black Knights
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
For the first time in the brief life of the Fenway Bowl, two teams based in the Northeast will meet at the iconic baseball venue. UConn aims for its second straight win in the game, and its first 10-win season, and will be led by interim coach Gordon Sammis, the team’s offensive coordinator, following Jim Mora’s departure to Colorado State. Army had an often-frustrating season, filled with close games, but the Black Knights finally started winning some down the stretch and will make things challenging on UConn standout Joe Fagano (3,441 pass yards, 28 touchdowns, 1 interception). But Fagano will do enough as UConn makes history.
Prediction: UConn 31, Army 23
Pop-Tarts Bowl
BYU Cougars vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
America’s favorite newer bowl game features a really fun matchup for line-of-scrimmage enthusiasts. Will motivation be a concern? BYU felt it had a playoff-worthy profile, while Georgia Tech seemingly had a CFP path before losing three of its final four regular-season games. Coaches Kalani Sitake (BYU) and Brent Key (Georgia Tech) are true believers in physical play and out-toughing your opponent. Both teams feature talented running quarterbacks in Haynes King, who is playing his final college game, and Bear Bachmeier, a true freshman with 11 rushing touchdowns. BYU has a pretty significant advantage on defense, though. Star linebacker Jack Kelly and his teammates get it done.
Prediction: BYU 29, Georgia Tech 21
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. Fresno State Bulldogs
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
As a child of the ’90s who considers “The Chronic” one of the best-produced albums ever, I’m not picking against a team called the Bulldogs in the Snoop Dogg Bowl. Not happening! Fresno State thrives in the postseason, winning five of its past six bowl games, and first-year coach Matt Entz won two FCS national championships at North Dakota State. To be fair, Miami won this bowl game last year, and coach Chuck Martin’s teams are always at the line of scrimmage. But Fresno State is pretty stingy on defense and has some stars, such as cornerback Simeon Harris and lineman Finn Claypool. Fresno State takes this one.
Prediction: Fresno State 24, Miami (Ohio) 17
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
North Texas Mean Green vs. San Diego State Aztecs
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
This game could come down to which team responds better to recent disappointments. North Texas lost out on a CFP berth after falling to Tulane in the AAC title game. Coach Eric Morris is moving on to Oklahoma State, and North Texas’ roster situation will be worth monitoring. Standout quarterback Drew Mestemaker made his first career start in North Texas’ last bowl game, passing for 393 yards with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions in a loss to Texas State. San Diego State returns to the same stadium where it lost its regular-season finale to New Mexico, costing itself a shot at the Mountain West title game. The matchup features a top-five scoring defense in San Diego State (12.6 ppg) against the nation’s top scoring offense in North Texas (44.8 ppg). I’ll go with defense in a tight one.
Prediction: San Diego State 31, North Texas 28
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
Virginia Cavaliers vs. Missouri Tigers
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Virginia hasn’t really been in this position before, having to rebound from the disappointment of losing out on its first CFP opportunity. Coach Tony Elliott must rally his team as a good opportunity awaits to finish things out with a team-record 11th victory. Missouri’s four losses came against top-10 opponents at the time, and the Tigers have one of the nation’s best running backs in Ahmad Hardy, who has 1,560 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns in his first season as a Tiger. Coach Eliah Drinkwitz has won his past two bowl games with Missouri and should get a third, as the Tigers win a lower-scoring game.
Prediction: Missouri 26, Virginia 19
Kinder’s Texas Bowl
LSU Tigers vs. Houston Cougars
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
An LSU season that began with national championship aspirations ends with a quasi-road game against Houston in the Texas Bowl, which the Tigers were in — and lost — the last time they had a midseason coaching change in 2021. Houston took a big step in coach Willie Fritz’s second season, improving its win total from four to nine. The game’s key matchup could be LSU’s defense, which has been very good and will remain under the direction of coordinator Blake Baker, facing Conner Weigman, the former Texas A&M quarterback who had 2,475 passing yards and 21 touchdowns for the Cougars this fall. Ultimately, location and motivation swing the arrow toward Houston, which gets its 10th win and evens the all-time series with LSU at 2-2.
Prediction: Houston 23, LSU 17
Monday, Dec. 29
JLab Birmingham Bowl
App State Mountaineers vs. Georgia Southern Eagles
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Kudos to Appalachian State, which said yes when many others did not, and gave Georgia Southern an opponent to close out the season. These Sun Belt teams have already played, which isn’t ideal, but their first meeting delivered some late drama before Georgia Southern prevailed 25-23. Georgia Southern’s last four wins all came by seven points or fewer, while Appalachian State lost four games by eight points or fewer. Neither team is particularly strong on defense, but Georgia Southern boasts star power on offense with wide receiver Camden Brown, who has 1,049 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns, and adds to those totals in a win.
Prediction: Georgia Southern 37, Appalachian State 31
Tuesday, Dec. 30
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Coach Sonny Cumbie’s Bulldogs quietly rebounded nicely this fall, ensuring their first winning season since 2019. They also will be playing just 70 miles from campus and will have a significant crowd advantage, especially against a Coastal Carolina program going through a coaching change after Tim Beck’s firing. Louisiana Tech’s offense has had a few no-shows this season, but scored a total of 76 points in its past two games and has a deep and balanced rushing contingent with four ball carriers eclipsing 450 yards.
Prediction: Louisiana Tech 35, Coastal Carolina 24
Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
There will be plenty of orange in Nissan Stadium, although much of it won’t be cheering for Illinois, which caps a season that began with CFP hopes, was sidetracked sharply with a 53-point loss at Indiana but still ended with wins in three of the final four regular-season contests. Illini quarterback Luke Altmyer started his career in the SEC at Ole Miss and can finish it against an SEC opponent in Tennessee, which pursued him as a transfer target this spring after Nico Iamaleava‘s exit to UCLA. The Vols never really recovered from their early loss to Georgia and have much to sort out on defense, which ranks 91st nationally in points allowed. Expect a lot of scoring in this one, but Tennessee prevails behind quarterback Joey Aguilar.
Prediction: Tennessee 37, Illinois 30
Valero Alamo Bowl
USC Trojans vs. TCU Horned Frogs
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Placing too much emphasis on non-CFP bowls can be tricky, but this one feels important for Lincoln Riley and USC. The Trojans clearly improved this season, despite once again falling short of the CFP. They bring in the nation’s No. 1 recruiting class and should retain several key foundational players from this year’s roster. A road-like win against TCU would mean USC’s first 10-win season since 2022, and a likely top-15 finish. TCU can somewhat quietly finish with consecutive nine-win seasons. Opt-outs will be a storyline for USC with star wideout Makai Lemon and others not playing, but the Trojans should have enough to outlast the Horned Frogs.
Prediction: USC 37, TCU 30
Wednesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest Bowl
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Vanderbilt Commodores
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Vanderbilt lobbied aggressively for CFP inclusion, even though the team never entered serious consideration. Diego Pavia and the Commodores still can deliver a strong closing argument against an Iowa team led by the nation’s No. 8 scoring defense. Few players have transformed an entire program — the way it’s viewed, the way it sees itself — as much as Pavia at Vandy the past two seasons. Iowa will provide a nice test as the Hawkeyes pushed teams such as Indiana and Oregon, even in defeat. But Pavia and the Vanderbilt offense will be too much in this one, as the Commodores secure a once-unthinkable 11th win and a possible top-10 finish.
Prediction: Vanderbilt 34, Iowa 23
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Duke Blue Devils
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
The 2025 ACC champions and 2024 Big 12 champions meet in one of college football’s most iconic stadiums, for a Devils vs. Devils clash. Although Duke became the surprise ACC winner, it also seemingly underachieved this season, especially because quarterback Darian Mensah delivered on the hype with 3,646 passing yards, 30 touchdowns and only five interceptions. ASU will counter with quarterback Jeff Sims, who began his career at Georgia Tech before a challenging journey that culminated with a solid finish. The Sun Devils will need a strong defensive effort to slow down Mensah.
Prediction: Duke 35, Arizona State 31
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Michigan Wolverines vs. Texas Longhorns
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
The only question here is Texas’ motivation level, after missing out on the CFP for the first time since 2022, despite beating two playoff participants in No. 7 Texas A&M and No. 8 Oklahoma, as well as No. 14 Vanderbilt. The Longhorns have a much better profile than Michigan, which lost by double digits to the best three teams it faced and didn’t take advantage of a favorable schedule in quarterback Bryce Underwood‘s freshman season. Michigan capped 2024 with a surprise bowl win against an SEC opponent, but I really don’t see it happening again. Arch Manning accounts for three touchdowns, and Texas shuts down Underwood and U-M.
Prediction: Texas 28, Michigan 20
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Utah Utes
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
As Kyle Whittingham’s career winds down, a bowl win would be a fitting send-off for the future Hall of Fame coach. Whittingham dominated the postseason earlier in his career (11-1 in first 12 bowl games) but has struggled lately (five straight losses, including the 2023 Las Vegas Bowl). The Utes still should handle a Nebraska team that seems very much in flux, with its roster and coaching staff. Star running back Emmett Johnson is off to the NFL, and coach Matt Rhule has made several staff changes. Nebraska’s defense likely will have several problems with Devon Dampier. Utes roll.
Prediction: Utah 38, Nebraska 20
Friday, Jan. 2
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Rice Owls vs. Texas State Bobcats
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
The team opt-outs opened an opportunity for Rice, which will complete its first season under coach Scott Abell and seek the team’s first bowl victory since 2014. Rice has wins over UConn and Louisiana but really struggled defensively late in the season, which Texas State should be able to expose. Quarterback Brad Jackson and wide receiver Beau Sparks connect for two touchdowns as the Bobcats pull away.
Prediction: Texas State 41, Rice 24
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Navy Midshipmen vs. Cincinnati Bearcats
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
One of the last bowl games could be among the most fun, especially with the quarterback matchup of Navy’s Blake Horvath and Cincinnati’s Brendan Sorsby. Horvath has back-to-back 1,000-yard rushing seasons, while Sorsby finished the regular season with 2,800 passing yards and 27 touchdowns. Cincinnati’s poor finish is a concern, though, as the Bearcats didn’t eclipse 24 points in any of their four losses. Navy doesn’t take these games lightly, having won six of its past seven bowl games, including last year’s Armed Forces Bowl. Mids get it done.
Prediction: Navy 27, Cincinnati 24
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
From Egg Bowl disappointment to Mayo Bowl mania, Mississippi State is in the postseason as a fill-in team. How will the Bulldogs capitalize on their surprise opportunity? Despite a 5-7 record, Mississippi State competed much better this season under coach Jeff Lebby, and has the offensive talent to give Wake Forest some problems. Wake isn’t afraid to grind out wins with its defense and run game, led by Demond Claiborne. Coach Jake Dickert has done a great job in his first season, and he’ll cap it with a mayo dump.
Prediction: Wake Forest 31, Mississippi State 27
Trust & Will Holiday Bowl
Arizona Wildcats vs. SMU Mustangs
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
A lot can happen to both rosters between now and Jan. 2, but this appears to be one of the more evenly matched pairings in bowl season. Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita has seen it all during his career, and can secure the team’s second 10-win season in three years — and just the fifth in team history — with a victory in San Diego. SMU will counter with Kevin Jennings, who seeks postseason redemption after his rough performance in last year’s CFP. Both teams can defend well, too, and boast standouts, such as safeties Dalton Johnson (Arizona) and Ahmaad Moses (SMU). A tough call here, but I’ll go with Arizona in a close one.
Prediction: Arizona 30, SMU 24
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Andrea Adelson
THE JOKES ARE easy enough to make between “old man” Haynes King and his position coach, the oldest man to ever win the Heisman Trophy.
Twenty-five years ago, when Chris Weinke took home the award as a 28-year-old senior, his age became a nonstop topic of conversation. Today, older quarterbacks dot the college football landscape, their advanced ages met with a collective shrug.
“Sometimes I try and mess with him and say, ‘I couldn’t quite catch you on the age, but I tried. I gave it my all,” the 24-year-old King said of Weinke, his quarterbacks coach at Georgia Tech.
Older players have been normalized, thanks to the transfer portal and the pandemic, which granted freshmen an extra year of eligibility if they wanted it. Nearly 40 quarterbacks from the 2020 class came back this year for one more season at the FBS level. Plus, with NIL and revenue sharing, some quarterbacks are opting to stay in college as opposed to leaving school for the NFL draft. And sixth-year quarterbacks like King and Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia entered the Heisman conversation this year. (Pavia was named a finalist.) Still, if more quarterbacks are 24 years old these days, nobody is quite as aged as Weinke was when he played.
“The landscape of college football has obviously changed,” Weinke says. “But that was a point of contention when I won it. When I walked into the room that evening when they were making the Heisman announcement, I didn’t think I was going to win it, because there was so much chatter that I didn’t deserve to win it because I was older.
“But I’ve got it now, and they can’t take it away.”
Perhaps the conversation around what Weinke did in 2000 at Florida State should be reframed. What made that season so remarkable had nothing to do with age, and everything to do with how he turned himself into a star after his college football career nearly ended. Twice.
FLORIDA STATE OFFENSIVE coordinator Mark Richt was sitting in his office in 1996, when then-coach Bobby Bowden came in with some news. At the time, Richt was closing in on getting a commitment from the top quarterback prospect in the country, Drew Henson. That is, until Bowden told him about a promise he had made to Weinke six years earlier.
Weinke had initially signed with the Seminoles in 1990, joining a quarterback room that included Brad Johnson, Casey Weldon and fellow freshman Charlie Ward. But he also had a lucrative offer to play baseball with the Toronto Blue Jays organization, after being selected in the second round of the MLB draft. Weinke had until classes started in late August to decide which sport he was going to play, so he opted to begin fall practice with Florida State while weighing his options.
He went through fall two-a-days, and with decision day closing in, Richt remembers one quarterback meeting in particular. To make sure his quarterbacks understood what he was teaching them, he would ask them questions.
Richt turned to Weinke as they watched tape and asked, “What coverage is this on this play?”
“Cover 3?” Weinke guessed.
“No.”
“Cover 1?
“No. It’s quarters coverage,” Richt said.
Weinke responded: “Whatever.”
“That was the day before school started,” Richt said. “I said, ‘I got a feeling this kid is going to leave and play pro baseball.'”
Sure enough, Weinke left. But Bowden told him if he ever decided to return to football, he would have a spot waiting for him at Florida State.
After six years of bouncing around the minor leagues and getting as high as Triple-A, Weinke decided to give up on baseball, but not playing sports entirely. He wanted to go back to football. Richt reminded Bowden that if they took Weinke, they would lose Henson.
“Well, I promised him if ever wanted to play football again, I’d let him come back,” Bowden told Richt.
Richt asked to speak with Weinke first.
“I was telling him all the rules and regs, I was telling him about [quarterback] Dan Kendra already on campus and when I’m done giving him my spiel to try to get him not to come, he says, ‘Hey coach, let me ask you one question. If I’m the best guy, will I play?’ I said, ‘Of course.’ He goes, ‘I’m coming.’ We lost the other quarterback to Michigan. I guess we came out OK with Weinke.”
Nobody quite knew what to expect when he arrived on campus as a 25-year-old freshman in 1997, but he quickly became one of the guys, in part because he had a large house off campus and threw his fair share of parties where all were invited.
The larger issue was that he arrived as a baseball player. Weinke had not picked up a football in six years.
Getting his form back would take time and reps. Lots and lots of reps. Former teammates and coaches described Weinke’s competitiveness, work ethic and relentless demeanor as driving forces. He would never settle for anything less than his best effort; and he expected the same from his teammates.
That is why he woke up before class started and went to watch tape with Richt. Why he organized every voluntary 7-on-7 workout and essentially made them mandatory. Because if someone failed to show up, he would go and find them and bring them out to the practice field. He developed such a great rapport with his receivers that he would be able to anticipate where they would be at any given time on the field.
“Our chemistry was like none other,” said Marvin “Snoop” Minnis, his leading receiver in 2000. “He knew what I was going to do before I did. He would have the ball to me before I even got out of my break, and as a receiver, you love that so you can react and make the move you need to make on the defender.”
Weinke played sparingly in 1997 but won the starting job in 1998. Things started well enough in the opener. Then in his second career start, at NC State, Weinke threw a school-record six interceptions, and the criticism began.
“I remember getting back to the house, we had an answering machine back then. The most brutal messages you could imagine, cursing and threats, and ‘You don’t need to play quarterback,'” said Jeff Purinton, who was working in the Florida State media relations department at the time and was one of Weinke’s roommates. “Even going to the store, people would talk trash. Chris just weathered it and used that as an opportunity to learn.”
Weinke rebounded from there, helping Florida State reel off eight straight wins. That last win, against Virginia, was nearly the last time he saw the field.
TOWARD THE END of the first half, Weinke got sacked and felt pain in his right arm. He initially thought he had a shoulder injury. Weinke went into the locker room at halftime, and as trainers began to lift off his shoulder pads, he had a sharp pain in his neck. He was fitted with a brace and underwent further testing.
When the doctor walked in to deliver the results, Weinke remembers asking, “Before you share any news, I just want to know one thing. Am I ever going to play college football again?”
“Well,” the doctor said. “Do you want the good news or the bad news?”
The doctor said Weinke needed surgery to insert a titanium plate into his neck after X-rays showed a chipped bone lodged against a nerve in a vertebra, ligament damage and a ruptured disc.
“Maybe the better news,” the doctor said. “You were a centimeter away from being paralyzed from the neck down.”
“Mom hears that, and dad hears that. They’re not real excited about me getting back out on the field,” Weinke says. “But they knew that burning desire inside of me that wanted to get back out there and be a part of the team. The doctors told me that I’d be stronger with a titanium plate in my neck, so I was going to do whatever it took. But those were probably the hardest seven months of my life.”
Weinke initially had complications post-surgery and had to be in bed for five weeks. He lost 30 pounds, and his throwing arm atrophied so severely that it became impossible for him to even lift a football. He had to teach himself again how to throw, starting first with a tennis ball. Throwing it 5 yards was a huge accomplishment. Seven hours a day, day after day, he rehabbed, steadily progressing, all the while unsure whether he would make it all the way back.
Then, there he was in the season opener against Louisiana Tech, completing 63% of his passes, throwing for 242 yards and two touchdowns. That was the start of an undefeated national championship-winning season in 1999, as Florida State went wire to wire as the No. 1 team in the nation.
Weinke opted to return for one more season, because he wanted to get Bowden another national championship. After throwing for 3,432 yards, 29 touchdowns and 15 interceptions as a junior and winning the title, Weinke became one of the Heisman front-runners headed into 2000.
TWENTY-FIVE YEARS LATER, there is one play from that season that remains a part of Seminoles lore: Weinke to Minnis, 98 yards, in a 54-7 blowout win over Clemson in mid-November.
On the second series of the game, backed up near the goal line, Florida State ran what Bowden referred to as a “gym play” — one that was never practiced on the field, but rather behind closed doors inside the gym away from prying eyes. “Or spies,” Richt said.
Weinke dropped back deep into the end zone and faked a handoff to Jeff Chaney, turning his back to the defense and tucking the ball as if he no longer had it. Minnis had gone in motion and made the safety think he was blocking for a handoff, then took off down the middle. By the time Weinke delivered the ball, Minnis was wide open. Easy touchdown. Easy 54-7 win.
“He was so ice cold in that moment,” Minnis said. “The confidence that he had in the O-line to just stand there, then turn around and hit me for the touchdown. For him to make that fake as beautiful as he did and then put that ball on a dime just tells you how great Chris Weinke was and how deserving he was of that Heisman Trophy.”
There was another game that added to his legend: The regular-season final against the rival Gators. Weinke had missed the 1998 game in Gainesville because of his neck injury. Nothing would keep him from playing them in The Swamp in 2000. Not even the flu.
Weinke was so sick the night before the game, he stayed at the home of team doctor Kris Stowers so he would not be around the rest of the team in the team hotel. He rode with Stowers to the game on Saturday, and walked through all the tailgate lots on the way to the locker room. Trainers gave him an IV before the game started, and Weinke proceeded to throw for 353 yards and three touchdowns in the 30-7 win.
Florida State was well positioned to make it back to the national title game, and Weinke was also well positioned in the Heisman Trophy race. But as the weeks drew closer to the announcement of the Heisman finalists, critics waged a campaign against Weinke — saying his age should disqualify him from consideration. That angered his teammates.
“He dominated that year, and it had nothing to do with age,” Minnis said. Added running back Travis Minor: “When he got there, he wasn’t looking like a Heisman Trophy candidate or winner. He really put the work in. You saw the difference from when he first got there to when he had that Heisman Trophy season. He earned everything that he won.”
Florida State knew it had to start working on messaging with Heisman voters as the debate over his age raged on. Ultimately, school officials came back to one main point: It was hard to argue with the stats. Weinke had led the nation with 4,167 yards passing and 33 touchdowns and had the Seminoles playing in a third straight national championship game.
“He was playing baseball for six years. It wasn’t like he was throwing the football every day and training to be a starting college quarterback,” Purinton said. “The other part is he could have died when he broke his neck. There were two points in time where he had to go back and start football over again.”
Weinke said the narrative taking shape around his age “pissed me off.”
“I was playing college football, so if I’m playing college football, then I should be eligible to win any award that they’re giving out in college football,” Weinke said. “That was just a little motivating factor for me.”
Weinke ultimately made it to New York with fellow finalists Josh Heupel, LaDainian Tomlinson and Drew Brees. His teammates watched on television screens from the team banquet Florida State had scheduled for that night.
“Sitting in the Downtown Athletic Club coming out of a commercial break and them announcing your name will ring in my head till the day I die,” Weinke said.
Weinke beat out Heupel in one of the closest votes in Heisman history, taking a 76-point margin of victory. His teammates whooped and hollered for him back home. Weinke took the stage and said, “With apologies to Lou Gehrig, I feel like I’m the luckiest man in the world.”
WEINKE BEGAN COACHING 10 years after he won the Heisman. He first came to know King while working as an assistant at Tennessee in 2020. When King hit the portal in 2022, Weinke had moved on to Georgia Tech. His first call was to King.
“Playing quarterback is kind of tricky,” King says. “The stars have to align, whether it’s people around you and or how you’re playing. Even in my class, there were guys like Bryce Young and Anthony Richardson and C.J. Stroud, already in the league, and I’m still in college like Chandler Morris, Diego Pavia, Carson Beck. Everybody’s timeline is different.”
While the debate over his age has been left to the dustbin of history, what Weinke did that year may never be replicated. In an era of sport and position specialization, quarterbacks rarely play multiple sports at elite levels — let alone leave football behind for six years before coming back to it. In the 25 years since Weinke won the Heisman, Brandon Weeden at Oklahoma State is perhaps the only notable quarterback to play baseball and then stick around in college football into his late 20s.
“To go through the things that I went through was clearly the road less traveled,” Weinke said. “Being an older guy and not playing football for seven years, then fulfilling a dream of playing for Coach Bowden, then breaking my neck, and coming back and giving Coach Bowden his first undefeated season, and ultimately having my name called for the Heisman Trophy, I just felt blessed.”
The MLB winter meetings have come and gone, and though there’s always a hope that there will be plenty of action, that’s not always the case. The 2025 meetings didn’t have a $700-plus million deal like last year, but there were still a number of impactful free agent signings, although no groundbreaking trades.
Veteran slugger Kyle Schwarber chose to return to the Philadelphia Phillies on a five-year deal in the first major splash of the meetings. The Los Angeles Dodgers added to an already star-studded roster by signing closer Edwin Diaz to a three-year, $69 million contract that sets a record in AAV for a reliever. The Baltimore Orioles then joined the fun by adding a veteran slugger on a five-year deal of their own in Pete Alonso.
We asked our MLB experts who were on the scene in Orlando, Florida, to break down everything that happened this week. Which moves most impressed them — and which most confused them? Who were the biggest winners and losers? What should we make of the trade market? And what can we expect next?
What is the most interesting thing you heard this week in Orlando?
Jorge Castillo: That a Tarik Skubal trade is likely. Here’s what we know: Detroit Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris can shut down speculation by simply saying he is not trading Skubal and he has not done that. Instead, he noted this week that there aren’t any “untouchables” on his roster. Trading the best pitcher in baseball when you’re trying to compete would upset the fan base, but the Tigers, knowing re-signing Skubal next winter is unlikely, appear open to it.
Bradford Doolittle: Managers’ responses to questions about how they plan to handle the new ABS system were interesting. No one seems fixed on a protocol just yet, but what had not occurred to me is that catchers are likely to be the triggers for challenges for the defense. So instead of the possible reality in which catcher value was undermined by a full-blown automated system, this structure actually will enhance it — and we’ll have a new set of statistics to track.
Alden Gonzalez: Tyler Glasnow‘s name has come up in conversations, and the Dodgers would not be opposed to moving him. He’s poised to make a combined $60 million over the next two years, with either a $30 million club option or a $21.6 million player option in 2028. But the quality of his stuff continues to tantalize executives throughout the industry, and there are certainly a fair share of teams that will bank on him staying healthy enough to make it worthwhile. Maybe he’s part of the package that brings Tarik Skubal to L.A. A longshot, perhaps, but wilder things have happened.
Jeff Passan: The Texas Rangers are in listening mode on star shortstop Corey Seager, which doesn’t mean the two-time World Series MVP is by any means going to be moved but reflects the Rangers’ willingness to overhaul the team beyond their trade of Marcus Semien. To be abundantly clear: Texas isn’t looking to shed the remaining $186 million on his contract. The return would need to overwhelm the Rangers. But they are facing a payroll crunch, and with Pete Alonso landing a $155 million deal and Kyle Schwarber reaping $150 million, Seager’s deal is quite appealing. He’s only 31, he plays an excellent shortstop and of all the position players ostensibly available via trade or free agency, he is the best.
Jesse Rogers: Simply put, that deals for many of the major free agent pitchers aren’t close to being finalized. It almost feels like the beginning of the offseason for starting pitchers, who are meeting with teams to try to ignite their market. There has been a steady pace of signings for relievers — especially at the high end — but other than Dylan Cease, starting pitchers have been slow to agree to deals. That will change — at least in part — because Japanese starter Tatsuya Imai has a deadline of Jan. 2 to sign, but even that is still several weeks away.
What was your favorite move of the offseason so far?
Doolittle: I’m not too excited about any of them so far — not that I think they’re all bad, just nothing tickles my fancy. So the bar is pretty low. I’ll go with the Toronto Blue Jays going big on Cease. Keep that crest wave Toronto is on rolling.
Gonzalez: As a general rule, any free agent deal this time of year tends to be an overpay. And that’s what makes the Dodgers’ deal for star closer Diaz so appealing. Diaz received the highest annual value ever for a reliever, but they were able to get him for only three years (and, as they so often do, defer some of the payments). The Dodgers capitalized on the New York Mets‘ signing of Devin Williams — which opened the door for Diaz’s departure — and addressed their own biggest need with the type of short-term, high-AAV contract that is always their preference.
Rogers: I love Baltimore going for it, agreeing to a deal with Alonso. The Orioles had a bad season in 2025 and are doing everything they can to change their fortunes for next season — even if there are some inherent doubts about acquiring an aging first baseman for big money. The bottom line is Alonso is going to mash in Baltimore and perhaps bring some leadership to a team that needs a veteran presence. I love the big swing here — pun intended.
Which team’s actions (or lack thereof) had you scratching your head?
Doolittle: It’s probably too early to judge any particular team for its offseason in total, but the most perplexing move for me was Baltimore dealing Grayson Rodriguez to the Los Angeles Angels for one year of Taylor Ward. That definitely makes my head itch.
Castillo: The Orioles prioritizing a slugger after acquiring Ward from the Angels was unexpected. Baltimore does not have a shortage of young position player talent. Starting pitching, not offense, was their pressing need — especially after trading Rodriguez for Ward. But the Orioles offered Schwarber a five-year, $150 million and quickly pivoted to Alonso when Schwarber chose the Phillies, landing the former Mets first baseman with a five-year, $155 million deal that surpassed industry projections. The pressure remains on Orioles president of baseball operations Mike Elias to acquire a frontline starter, which he has plainly stated is an offseason priority.
Passan: What the New York Mets did over a 24-hour period to end the meetings — miss out on slugger Schwarber, lose closer Díaz to the two-time defending World Series champion Dodgers and lose Alonso, their franchise home run leader, to the Orioles — felt like a bloodletting.
Collapses like the Mets’ have consequences, and president of baseball operations David Stearns is reshaping them to his liking. Defensive liabilities are a no-no. Record-setting deals for relief pitchers are verboten. How the Mets proceed is anyone’s best guess, but let’s not forget: Steve Cohen is still the richest owner in baseball, and that opens a world of possibilities. But if this period of inaction isn’t remedied through decisive moves — an influx of talent either through free agency or trades — the Mets’ playoff hopes will end before they’ve begun.
After a lot of buzz ahead of the meetings, it was pretty quiet on the trade front. What is one big deal you think could go down from here?
Gonzalez: The Miami Marlins have been engaged in trade conversations around Edward Cabrera, a 27-year-old starting pitcher with three controllable years remaining. And the Orioles have emerged as a front-runner, as first reported by The Athletic. There are a number of starting pitchers available at the moment. Sonny Gray has already gone from St. Louis to Boston, and Cabrera could be next to move.
Passan: A second baseman is going to move. Maybe multiple. There is too much interest in Ketel Marte, Brendan Donovan and Brandon Lowe for a deal not to be consummated. It’s not just them, either. Jake Cronenworth is available. The Yankees have listened on Jazz Chisholm Jr. The Mets’ overhaul could include moving Jeff McNeil.
Marte and Donovan are the clear prizes, with Arizona’s and St. Louis’ respective asking prices exceptionally high. Which is where, at this point on the calendar, they should be. Especially with all of the teams that could use a second baseman (Boston, Pittsburgh, San Francisco, Seattle, New York Mets) or that would be willing to replace theirs.
Rogers: Where there is smoke, there is fire, meaning Washington Nationals starting pitcher MacKenzie Gore will be moved. His name came up a lot in Orlando and there are enough motivated teams in part because he’s good and affordable. An American League East team, such as the New York Yankees or Orioles, fits for Gore — especially the latter, which might have an extra hitter or two to spare after signing Alonso. Gore fits in Baltimore on several levels.
Who was the biggest winner — and loser — of the week?
Castillo: The Mets were the biggest loser. Losing Diaz and Alonso on consecutive days two weeks after trading Brandon Nimmo is a staggering sequence not just because they are all All-Star-caliber players, but because they were so integral to the franchise and beloved by the fan base. This doesn’t mean the Mets can’t emerge as winners this season. President of baseball operations David Stearns & Co. have time to rebound. They certainly have moves to make. But this was an ugly week for Mets fans, one they’ll never forget.
Passan: The Dodgers were the biggest winner, filling their clearest need with one of the best closers in baseball, Díaz. Cincinnati, in the meantime, is the biggest loser.
Free agents of Schwarber’s ilk rarely entertain the idea of going to small-market teams, but the Reds had a built-in advantage: He was from there. Considering the scarcity of such possibilities, the Reds– one big bat away from being a real threat to win the NL Central — needed to treat Schwarber’s potential arrival with urgency and embrace their inner spendthrift. They had the money to place the largest bid. They chose not to. And they missed, a true shame considering the strength of their rotation and the likelihood that similar opportunities won’t find them again anytime soon.
Rogers: The Phillies were the biggest winner. Where would they be without Schwarber? Perhaps it was fait accompli he would be returning, but until he signed on the dotted line, some doubt had to exist. His power simply can’t be replaced, meaning the Phillies’ whole trajectory this offseason would have changed had he left. Now, they can keep moving forward on other important decisions, such as what to do at catcher and if Nick Castellanos still fits their roster. Checking the Schwarber box removes a major potential headache for the franchise. Conversely, even if it was a long shot, the Cincinnati Reds losing out on Schwarber has to hurt. As important as he is to the Phillies, his impact in Cincinnati could have been even more meaningful. He instantly would have elevated the Reds on and off the field.
Which team is under the most pressure to do something big after the meetings?
Castillo: The Mets for the reasons I stated above. Stearns obviously believed he needed to make changes to the roster after such a disappointing season. But this is a major, major overhaul that goes beyond on-field performance. Diaz, Alonso, and Nimmo were beloved core Mets and key to the franchise’s fabric. The pressure is on Stearns to ensure the jarring changes will produce success.
Doolittle: Cincinnati. The Reds muffed the Schwarber situation in a major way. I’m not sure what their actual chances were of signing him, but they should have at least matched what the Phillies offered. The fit between the player and what he’d add to the city and the clubhouse culture while addressing the roster’s biggest need in an emphatic fashion was a set of alignments hard to replicate. There is no suitable pivot from here. But the Reds need to do something — and they need to stop making excuses for why they don’t.
Gonzalez: The Mets. Their decision to not pay a premium for cornerstone players prompted Diaz to leave for L.A., Alonso to depart for Baltimore and their fans, understandably, to be up in arms. Now, they must react. They still have needs to address in their rotation, but they have to get aggressive with their lineup before all of the premium bats come off the board. Going after Cody Bellinger, and potentially stealing him from their crosstown rivals, feels like the natural pivot.
Passan: The Blue Jays have a chance to seize control of the AL East even more than they did in winning the division this year. Whether that means signing Tucker, Bo Bichette or both, they’re spending in the sort of fashion the Yankees and Red Sox used to — and taking advantage of the window of opportunity that presents is imperative.
Toronto, long mocked for its failures in free agency, is now a destination for players enthralled by the brand of baseball the Blue Jays play as well as the deep pockets of ownership. If you’re going to spend $210 million on Cease, that’s a sign: It’s all-in time, and opportunistic maneuvering would pay huge dividends for Toronto.
Rogers: The Yankees. For once, they are the team that needs to respond after the Blue Jays beat them on the field and now so far in the offseason. Toronto keeps adding while New York should try to at least maintain what it has — meaning Bellinger, or perhaps Tucker, should be in Yankees pinstripes as soon as possible. If the Yankees can add Imai, they’ll match Toronto’s addition of Cease. That would be a good thing. The two teams aren’t that far apart in talent, but Yankees general manager Brian Cashman can’t take his foot off the gas. The pressure is on in New York again.
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