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Oracle CEOs Clay Magouyrk and Mike Sicilia sit down with CNBC’s David Faber on Oct. 13, 2025.

CNBC

It’s been a rollercoaster year for Oracle investors, as they try to assess the strength of the software giant’s position in the artificial intelligence boom.

The stock is up more than 30% for the year even after a 23% plunge in October, which was its worst month since 2001. It’s recovered a bit in November, climbing almost 10% for the month as of Tuesday.

Heading into the company’s fiscal second-quarter earnings report on Wednesday, pressure is building on management — and newly installed CEOs Clay Magouyrk and Mike Sicilia — to show that Oracle can continue to finance the company’s aggressive infrastructure plans while simultaneously convincing Wall Street that the AI-fueled hypergrowth story remains intact.

In recent months, Oracle has emerged as a more central player in AI, largely due to a $300 billion deal with OpenAI, which came to light in September, an agreement that involves the AI startup buying computing power over about five years, starting in 2027.

Funding Oracle’s compute buildout is going to require mounds of debt. In late September, Oracle raised $18 billion in a jumbo bond sale, one of the largest debt issuances on record in the tech industry, and the company is now the biggest issuer of investment grade debt among non-financial firms, according to Citi.

“There is something inherently uncomfortable as a credit investor about the transformation of the sort we’re facing that is going to require an enormous amount of capital,” Daniel Sorid, head of U.S. investment grade credit strategy at Citi, said on a video call to investors on Friday, a replay of which was provided to reporters.

Oracle's new capacity lags behind competitors, says Rothschild's Haissl

Oracle has secured billions of dollars of construction loans through a consortium of banks tied to data centers in New Mexico and Wisconsin. Citi analyst Tyler Radke estimates Oracle will raise roughly $20 billion to $30 billion in debt every year for the next three years.

As of August, the company’s combined short-term and long-term debt, which includes lease obligations, sat at $111.6 billion, up from $84.5 billion a year earlier, according to FactSet, while cash and equivalents slipped over that stretch to $10.45 billion from $10.6 billion.

As Oracle aims to build out sufficient capacity to meet the rising demand its seeing from customers like OpenAI, the street is questioning whether company will tap sources other than the debt market.

“Oracle will be looking at all options out there — off-balance sheet facilities, raising debt, issuing equity or perhaps exploring interest from a foreign investor, i.e. a sovereign wealth fund,” said Rishi Jaluria, a software analyst at RBC Capital Markets, in an interview. Jaluria recommends holding the stock.

A credit investor who spoke to CNBC highlighted Meta’s $27 billion deal with Blue Owl Capital, a joint venture between the two entities, as one type of financing arrangement being used for AI data center development.

The market is also debating whether Oracle can use vendor financing options to reduce the amount of upfront capital required to stand up data centers, including securing favorable financing terms with suppliers like Nvidia, a credit investor told CNBC. However in that scenario, Nvidia’s chips would be used as collateral, raisings concerns around GPU depreciation.

An Oracle spokesperson declined to comment.

Growing skepticism

The discomfort that Sorid referenced has driven Oracle’s 5-year credit default swaps to new multi-year highs. Credit default swaps are like insurance for investors, with buyers paying for protection in case the borrower can’t repay its debt. Bond investors told CNBC that they’ve become a popular way to hedge the risk tied to the AI trade.

Credit analysts at Barclays and Morgan Stanley are recommending clients buy Oracle’s 5-year CDS. Andrew Keches, an analyst at Barclays, told analysts in a note last month that he didn’t see an avenue for Oracle’s credit trajectory to improve. And in late November, Morgan Stanley analysts said Oracle’s CDS had attracted not just typical credit investors but “tourists” who have less experience with this type of financial instrument.

Spools of electrical wires outside a series of assembly tents during a media tour of the Stargate AI data center in Abilene, Texas, US, on Tuesday, Sept. 23, 2025. Stargate is a collaboration of OpenAI, Oracle and SoftBank, with promotional support from President Donald Trump, to build data centers and other infrastructure for artificial intelligence throughout the US.

Kyle Grillot | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Oracle’s revenue growth and backlog of business will be closely monitored as investors try to gauge whether the company’s spending plans are justified. Analysts expect to see revenue growth in the latest quarter of 15% to $16.2 billion, according to StreetAccount.

Remaining performance obligations, a measure of contracted revenue that hasn’t yet been recognized, are expected to surpass $500 billion, StreetAccount says, which would mark a more than fivefold increase from a year earlier. Oracle’s disclosure in September that RPOs jumped 359% to $455 billion sent the company’s stock up 36%, its best single-day performance since 1992.

Since then, the stock has wiped out all of those gains and then some.

Gil Luria, an analyst at D.A. Davidson, said that beyond infrastructure, he’ll be closely watching Oracle’s core database business, which is a source of much higher margins. That will help determine how much flexibility the company has in going to the capital markets, he said.

“Oracle can handle the debt load,” said Luria, who recommends holding the stock. “But they need more cash flow to raise more capital from here.”

WATCH: Oracle has to talk execution, ‘not just promises’

Oracle has to talk execution, 'not just promises', says DCLA's Sarat Sethi

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Here are 4 major moments that drove the stock market last week

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Oracle says there have been ‘no delays’ in OpenAI arrangement after stock slide

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Oracle says there have been 'no delays' in OpenAI arrangement after stock slide

Oracle CEO Clay Magouyrk appears on a media tour of the Stargate AI data center in Abilene, Texas, on Sept. 23, 2025.

Kyle Grillot | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Oracle on Friday pushed back against a report that said the company will complete data centers for OpenAI, one of its major customers, in 2028, rather than 2027.

The delay is due to a shortage of labor and materials, according to the Friday report from Bloomberg, which cited unnamed people. Oracle shares fell to a session low of $185.98, down 6.5% from Thursday’s close.

“Site selection and delivery timelines were established in close coordination with OpenAI following execution of the agreement and were jointly agreed,” an Oracle spokesperson said in an email to CNBC. “There have been no delays to any sites required to meet our contractual commitments, and all milestones remain on track.”

The Oracle spokesperson did not specify a timeline for turning on cloud computing infrastructure for OpenAI. In September, OpenAI said it had a partnership with Oracle worth more than $300 billion over the next five years.

“We have a good relationship with OpenAI,” Clay Magouyrk, one of Oracle’s two newly appointed CEOs, said at an October analyst meeting.

Doing business with OpenAI is relatively new to 48-year-old Oracle. Historically, Oracle grew through sales of its database software and business applications. Its cloud infrastructure business now contributes over one-fourth of revenue, although Oracle remains a smaller hyperscaler than Amazon, Microsoft and Google.

OpenAI has also made commitments to other companies as it looks to meet expected capacity needs.

In September, Nvidia said it had signed a letter of intent with OpenAI to deploy at least 10 gigawatts of Nvidia equipment for the San Francisco artificial intelligence startup. The first phase of that project is expected in the second half of 2026.

Nvidia and OpenAI said in a September statement that they “look forward to finalizing the details of this new phase of strategic partnership in the coming weeks.”

But no announcement has come yet.

In a November filing, Nvidia said “there is no assurance that we will enter into definitive agreements with respect to the OpenAI opportunity.”

OpenAI has historically relied on Nvidia graphics processing units to operate ChatGPT and other products, and now it’s also looking at designing custom chips in a collaboration with Broadcom.

On Thursday, Broadcom CEO Hock Tan laid out a timeline for the OpenAI work, which was announced in October. Broadcom and OpenAI said they had signed a term sheet.

“It’s more like 2027, 2028, 2029, 10 gigawatts, that was the OpenAI discussion,” Tan said on Broadcom’s earnings call. “And that’s, I call it, an agreement, an alignment of where we’re headed with respect to a very respected and valued customer, OpenAI. But we do not expect much in 2026.”

OpenAI declined to comment.

WATCH: Oracle says there have been ‘no delays’ in OpenAI arrangement after stock slide

Oracle says there have been 'no delays' in OpenAI arrangement after stock slide

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AI order from Trump might be ‘illegal,’ Democrats and consumer advocacy groups claim

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AI order from Trump might be ‘illegal,’ Democrats and consumer advocacy groups claim

“This is the wrong approach — and most likely illegal,” Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., said in a post on X Thursday.

“We need a strong federal safety standard, but we should not remove the few protections Americans currently have from the downsides of AI,” Klobuchar said.

Trump’s executive order directs Attorney General Pam Bondi to create a task force to challenge state laws regulating AI.

The Commerce Department was also directed to identify “onerous” state regulations aimed at AI.

The order is a win for tech companies such as OpenAI and Google and the venture firm Andreessen Horowitz, which have all lobbied against state regulations they view as burdensome. 

It follows a push by some Republicans in Congress to impose a moratorium on state AI laws. A recent plan to tack on that moratorium to the National Defense Authorization Act was scuttled.

Collin McCune, head of government affairs at Andreessen Horowitz, celebrated Trump’s order, calling it “an important first step” to boost American competition and innovation. But McCune urged Congress to codify a national AI framework.

“States have an important role in addressing harms and protecting people, but they can’t provide the long-term clarity or national direction that only Congress can deliver,” McCune said in a statement.

Sriram Krishnan, a White House AI advisor and former general partner at Andreessen Horowitz, during an interview Friday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” said that Trump is was looking to partner with Congress to pass such legislation.

“The White House is now taking a firm stance where we want to push back on ‘doomer’ laws that exist in a bunch of states around the country,” Krishnan said.

He also said that the goal of the executive order is to give the White House tools to go after state laws that it believes make America less competitive, such as recently passed legislation in Democratic-led states like California and Colorado.

The White House will not use the executive order to target state laws that protect the safety of children, Krishnan said.

Robert Weissman, co-president of the consumer advocacy group Public Citizen, called Trump’s order “mostly bluster” and said the president “cannot unilaterally preempt state law.”

“We expect the EO to be challenged in court and defeated,” Weissman said in a statement. “In the meantime, states should continue their efforts to protect their residents from the mounting dangers of unregulated AI.”

Weissman said about the order, “This reward to Big Tech is a disgraceful invitation to reckless behavior
by the world’s largest corporations and a complete override of the federalist principles that Trump and MAGA claim to venerate.”

In the short term, the order could affect a handful of states that have already passed legislation targeting AI. The order says that states whose laws are considered onerous could lose federal funding.

One Colorado law, set to take effect in June, will require AI developers to protect consumers from reasonably foreseeable risks of algorithmic discrimination.

Some say Trump’s order will have no real impact on that law or other state regulations.

“I’m pretty much ignoring it, because an executive order cannot tell a state what to do,” said Colorado state Rep. Brianna Titone, a Democrat who co-sponsored the anti-discrimination law.

In California, Gov. Gavin Newsom recently signed a law that, starting in January, will require major AI companies to publicly disclose their safety protocols. 

That law’s author, state Sen. Scott Wiener, said that Trump’s stated goal of having the United States dominate the AI sector is undercut by his recent moves. 

“Of course, he just authorized chip sales to China & Saudi Arabia: the exact opposite of ensuring U.S. dominance,” Wiener wrote in an X post on Thursday night. The Bay Area Democrat is seeking to succeed Speaker-emerita Nancy Pelosi in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Trump on Monday said he will Nvidia to sell its advanced H200 chips to “approved customers” in China, provided that U.S. gets a 25% cut of revenues.

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