On Wednesday stateside, the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower its benchmark interest rates by a quarter percentage point to a range of 3.5%-3.75%.

However, given that traders are all but certain that the cut will happen — an 87.6% chance, to be exact, according to the CME FedWatch tool — the news is likely already priced into stocks by the market.

That means any whiff of restraint could weigh on equities. In fact, the talk in the markets is that the Fed might deliver a “hawkish cut”: lower rates while suggesting it could be a while before it cuts again.

The “dot plot,” or a projection of where Fed officials think interest rates will end up over the next few years, will be the clearest signal of any hawkishness. Investors will also parse Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference and central bankers’ estimates for U.S. economic growth and inflation to gauge the Fed’s future rate path.

In other words, the Fed could rein in market sentiment even if it cuts rates. Perhaps end-of-year festivities might be muted this year.

U.S.-China AI talent race heats up

When it comes to brain power, “America’s edge is deteriorating dangerously,” Chris Miller, author of the book “Chip War: The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology,” told a U.S. Senate Foreign Relations subcommittee last week. It’s a lead that’s “fragile and much smaller” than its advantage in AI chips, he said.

Part of the difference comes from the sheer scale, especially as education levels rise in China. Its population is four times that of the U.S., and the same goes for the volume of science, technology, engineering and mathematics graduates. In 2020, China produced 3.57 million STEM graduates, the most of any country, and far outpacing the 820,000 in the U.S.

— Evelyn Cheng

Amazon on Wednesday committed to investing over $35 billion in India’s cloud and artificial intelligence space by 2030, as hyperscalers race to get a foothold in the market. 

The commitment, unveiled at the Amazon Smbhav Summit in New Delhi, builds on nearly $40 billion already invested in the country. 

In a press release, Amazon said the new funds will target AI-driven digitization, export growth and job creation, aligning with India’s national priorities to build up its local AI environment.

By 2030, Amazon said the plan is expected to generate an additional 1 million direct, indirect, induced and seasonal jobs in India, quadruple exports to $80 billion and deliver AI benefits to 15 million small businesses.

The investment highlights Amazon’s bet on India’s booming digital economy, where it has been building fulfillment centers, data centers and payments infrastructure. 

It also comes soon after Microsoft announced plans to invest $17.5 billion in India’s AI infrastructure as Big Tech players accelerate their push into the market. 

“We are humbled to have been a part of India’s digital transformation journey over the past 15 years,” said Amit Agarwal, senior vice president for emerging markets at Amazon. 

“Looking ahead, we’re excited to continue being a catalyst for India’s growth, as we democratize access to AI for millions of Indians.”

Microsoft on Tuesday announced it would invest $17.5 billion in India’s cloud and artificial intelligence infrastructure, making it the U.S. tech giant’s largest investment in Asia. 

The company said that the investments, aimed at expanding hyperscale infrastructure, embedding AI into national platforms, and advancing workforce readiness, will be spread over 4 years, building on its $3 billion pledge made in January. 

The announcement follows a meeting between Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in which the two discussed India’s AI ambitions. Modi met with other tech CEOs on Tuesday too including Intel‘s Lip-Bu Tan.

In a post on social media, Nadella thanked Modi and said that Microsoft’s investments would “help build the infrastructure, skills, and sovereign capabilities needed for India’s AI first future.” 

The move comes as India attempts to catch up on AI, with Modi emphasizing building a comprehensive tech ecosystem and AI sovereignty. The country has also recently attracted data center investment pledges of $15 billion from Google and $8 billion from Amazon Web Services. 

“The youth of India will harness this opportunity to innovate and leverage the power of AI for a better planet,” Modi said in a post on X, referring to Microsoft’s investment.

Microsoft plans to use the funds to scale up its existing cloud and AI infrastructure to serve customers across regions in India. It now provides “Sovereign Public Cloud” and “Sovereign Private Cloud” services in several regions.

The company added that it was doubling its January commitment to train 20 million Indians in AI by 2030, with hopes to grow and skill its more than 22,000 employees in the country. 

Microsoft also announced on Tuesday that it would be integrating its Azure AI capabilities into two key digital public platforms of India’s Ministry of Labour and Employment and the National Career Service. 

India’s Union Minister of Electronics & Information Technology Ashwini Vaishnaw called the investment a signal of India’s rise as a reliable global technology partner, accelerating the shift from digital to AI public infrastructure.

While India lags far behind global leaders in advanced technologies like chips and AI, the country’s massive consumer market and public funding have attracted major tech players. 

Under its “India Semiconductor Mission,” the country has approved 10 chip projects with total investments of over $18 billion.

On Monday, American chip designer Intel signed a deal with Mumbai-based Tata Electronics aimed at collaborating on chip offerings in the country, including on products for AI applications.