Rematches, underdogs and chaotic teams — We’ve got it all in this CFP first round
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Bill Connelly
South Bend, State College, Austin and Columbus set the bar high last season. Now it’s time to shine the spotlight on Norman, College Station, Oxford and Eugene.
The first round of last year’s inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff was memorable primarily for the otherworldly atmospheres — and, consequently, home-field advantages — it produced. Notre Dame Stadium levitated as Jeremiyah Love raced 98 yards for an early touchdown against Indiana. SMU’s Kevin Jennings had to call timeout because he couldn’t hear at Penn State’s Beaver Stadium, then the crowd got even louder and he threw a pick-six. The four home teams were favored by an average of 8.8 points but won by an average of 19.3.
The second-ever first round gives us four more celebrated home crowds to put on display. Granted, close games are even better advertisements for the sport, but we might get a couple of those this time around, too. Let’s see what script the sport writes this time around.
CFP projections
We head into the CFP with two clear favorites, a spicy No. 3 and a few others with a puncher’s chance at the title. Here are the projections, per SP+:
(Note: These title odds are slightly different than what I posted after the CFP draw because of some slight changes I made to the win probability model.)
The first round gives us two projected tight games and two underdog upset bids. While coaching changes have been a big theme in the run-up — Ole Miss’ Lane Kiffin (LSU), Tulane’s Jon Sumrall (Florida) and James Madison’s Bob Chesney (UCLA) have all taken other jobs, as have Oregon offensive coordinator Will Stein (Kentucky head coach), defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi (Cal) and Texas A&M’s OC Collin Klein (Kansas State) — only Kiffin won’t be coaching in the first round, and I don’t want to exhaust myself speculating on the potential effects. So we’ll mention the changes only when we have to.
All times ET.
Jump to a game: Bama-OU | Miami-A&M | Tulane-Ole Miss | JMU-Oregon
This is one of two rematches. OU’s 23-21 win in Tuscaloosa in November wasn’t the season’s most aesthetically delightful game, but it was vital to how the rest of the season played out. With a Bama win, the Crimson Tide would have likely earned a first-round home game, and OU would have been out. Regardless, Bama gets a shot at redemption after a late-season fade, and OU gets to show off both its brilliant home crowd and a speedy, opportunistic defense.
Bama’s 3 biggest plays of 2025
Before we talk about matchups, let’s also look at the plays that got each team to this point. Here are Alabama’s top three plays of the season in terms of win probability added (per ESPN analytics). Without them, the Tide would probably be sitting at home right now.
1. Week 9 vs. South Carolina: Tim Keenan III‘s recovery of a LaNorris Sellers fumble forced by Deontae Lawson (1:51 left in Q4). Win probability added: 34.3%.
After a clutch run of four straight wins over ranked teams, Bama almost immediately stumbled. The Tide trailed South Carolina by eight late before Ty Simpson tied the game with a touchdown pass and 2-point conversion. South Carolina had time to drive for the winning score, but Keenan’s fumble recovery set up a game-winning touchdown from Germie Bernard instead.
2. Week 8 vs. Tennessee: Zabien Brown‘s 99-yard pick-six off of Joey Aguilar (0:09 left in Q2). Win probability added: 19.6%.
In its run against ranked opponents, Bama beat only Tennessee by a comfortable margin (37-20). That margin was almost entirely provided by the two-touchdown swing that occurred when Brown stepped in front of a goal line pass and took it the length of the field.
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Pick-six! Zabien Brown takes it 99 yards to the house for Alabama
Zabien Brown intercepts Joey Aguilar in the red zone and returns it 99 yards for an Alabama touchdown.
3. Week 14 vs. Auburn: Bray Hubbard‘s interception (and 34-yard return) of Ashton Daniels (1:02 left in Q3). Win probability added: 18.3%.
Bama again struggled with a sub-.500 underdog in the Iron Bowl. Before Simpson’s fourth-down TD to Isaiah Horton could give the Tide a late lead, they needed this red zone pick, late in the third quarter, to buy some time.
OU’s 3 biggest plays of 2025
Let’s see if we can spot a trend here.
1. Week 14 vs. LSU: John Mateer‘s 58-yard touchdown pass to Isaiah Sategna III (4:26 left in Q4). Win probability added: 27.4%.
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John Mateer connects with Isaiah Sategna III to give Oklahoma the lead
John Mateer finds a wide open Isaiah Sategna III for a 58-yard touchdown to put the Sooners on top.
2. Week 13 vs. Missouri: Mateer’s 87-yard touchdown pass to Sategna (6:59 left in Q2). Win probability added: 23.3%.
3. Week 14 vs. LSU: Mateer’s 45-yard touchdown pass to Deion Burks (1:57 left in Q3). Win probability added: 21.0%.
Oklahoma got here by combining dynamite defense with random offensive bursts. Among CFP receivers, Isaiah Sategna III is third in receiving yards, but he might be the CFP’s most important receiver. And while Deion Burks is mostly a possession option, his longest catch of the season, a 45-yard burst from a tunnel screen, was crucial, too.
Last time: Oklahoma 23, Alabama 21
OU’s Eli Bowen scored on an 87-yard pick-six, Taylor Wein blocked a second-quarter field goal attempt, and the Sooners’ offense got points from drives of 25 yards (after a long Sategna punt return), 31 yards (muffed punt) and 22 yards (another fumble) to win. All of that was required to overcome a 406-212 yardage disadvantage and vastly inferior success rate*. My Postgame Win Expectancy figure (PGWE) takes the predictive stats from a given game (the stuff that eventually feeds into SP+), tosses them into the air and says, “With these stats, you would have won this game X% of the time.” The Sooners’ PGWE was 5.0%. It was the fifth-lowest PGWE of the year for a winning team.
(*Success rate: how frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third and fourth.)
Lowest Postgame Win Expectancy in a win, 2025
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Louisiana 42, Texas State 39 (2.0% PGWE)
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Air Force 26, San Jose State 16 (2.5%)
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Louisiana 30, Louisiana-Monroe 27 (3.3%)
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Sam Houston 21, Oregon State 17 (4.4%)
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Oklahoma 23, Alabama 21 (5.0%)
Of course, while the Sooners’ win in T-Town wasn’t done in a sustainable fashion, Bama has primarily looked worse since.
Can Ty Simpson get his mojo back?
After a season-opening dud against Florida State, Alabama ripped off eight straight wins thanks in large part to brilliance from quarterback Ty Simpson. But the Tide’s run game never really came around, and it’s hard to carry an offense for an entire season. Simpson’s numbers cratered late.
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Simpson, first 10 FBS games: 80.6 Total QBR, 67% completion rate, 7.4 yards per dropback, 81.1% catchable pass rate
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Simpson, last two games: 55.1 Total QBR, 51% completion rate, 3.7 yards per dropback, 70.3% catchable pass rate
Simpson’s footwork and accuracy betrayed him in the SEC championship game. He has had a couple of weeks to rest, and Bama has had a couple of weeks to generate proper disrespect energy from those (justifiably) questioning how they managed to make the CFP. But righting the ship against an aggressive Oklahoma defense is tough. The Sooners rank second nationally in success rate allowed, third in stuff rate, third in sack rate, fourth in three-and-out rate and fifth in red zone TD rate allowed. Defensive ends Taylor Wein and R Mason Thomas have combined for 22.5 TFLs and 12.5 sacks despite Thomas missing three games with injury — he’s expected to play on Friday — while cornerbacks Courtland Guillory and Eli Bowen have allowed just a 38% completion rate in coverage.
Only Texas and Ole Miss found any real passing success against the Sooners, and they did it in opposite ways. Texas’ Arch Manning went 21-for-27 but averaged only 7.9 yards per completion. Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss, meanwhile, went just 24-for-44 but completed five passes of at least 25 yards. The Rebels were the only team to top 30 points on the Sooners.
This would be a fantastic time for Ryan Williams to finally find his way. The preseason All-American suffered a catastrophic drop rate of 13.4% (national average: 5.0%) during an almost seasonlong sophomore slump. He caught just nine of 18 balls with three drops in his past five games. Senior Germie Bernard is good, but Bama desperately needs big plays, and Williams is — or was — the most likely producer of those.
Can OU’s offense score without help?
Oklahoma has reached the CFP despite an offense that ranks 95th in yards per play and 89th in points per drive. The Sooners’ averages suffered a downturn after quarterback John Mateer’s midseason hand injury, but they weren’t spectacular before that either.
The Sooners have by far the least efficient attack in the CFP.
This isn’t a good offense, but it’s a timely one. Dam-bursting passes to Sategna and Burks were vital, as was outstanding red zone execution: The Sooners rank 16th in red zone TD rate (72%), and Groza-award-winning kicker Tate Sandell all but guarantees points from any scoring chance.
Against an excellent Bama defense, yards should again be hard to come by. The Tide are eighth in defensive SP+, driven by a disruptive run defense and safe, zone-heavy pass defense. Safety Bray Hubbard roams in the back, and sophomore OLB Yhonzae Pierre has become a star: He’s sixth among CFP defenders in tackles for loss (13.5) and third in forced fumbles (three), and he had a pair of pressures and a pair of run stops in the first OU game. Bama’s iffy late performances had very little to do with the defense.
Projections
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DraftKings projection: Bama 21.0, Oklahoma 19.5 (Bama -1.5, over/under 40.5)
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SP+ projection: Oklahoma 24.4, Bama 21.1
Bama probably should have won the first matchup, but the Tide failed to even slightly look the part down the stretch, and no playoff team knows itself — and what it needs to do to win — better than Oklahoma.
Brilliance and droughts, explosions and implosions. Maybe the two most volatile teams in the CFP will face off in Saturday’s early game and in what sure looks like the most interesting first-round game on paper. Tell me right now that either team wins by 24 points, or that the game goes to 16 overtimes, and I’ll believe you.
Miami’s 3 biggest plays of 2025
You might want to skip these next two sections, Notre Dame fans.
1. Week 1 vs. Notre Dame: Carter Davis‘ 47-yard field goal (1:08 left in Q4). Win probability added: 24.1%.
2. Week 1 vs. Notre Dame: Rueben Bain Jr.’s interception of CJ Carr (12:05 left in Q4). Win probability added: 15.7%.
Miami’s entire playoff case was built around beating Notre Dame, and the Hurricanes needed a number of key plays to get the job done. After the Irish tied the game with 3:21 remaining, Davis knocked in the go-ahead points. Back-to-back sacks by Akheem Mesidor and Bain sealed the deal and, 14 weeks later, earned Miami its first CFP berth.
3. Week 10 vs. SMU: Holding on SMU (0:47 left in Q4). Win probability added: 15.2%.
It’s probably telling that the third-biggest WPA play of the season was a penalty on an opponent who went on to score and beat the Canes. Close games haven’t been the Hurricanes’ thing. Their two one-score victories involved a blown 14-point lead against Notre Dame and a nearly blown 25-point lead against Notre Dame, and playing things safe late against both Louisville and SMU resulted in eventual losses.
A&M’s 3 biggest plays of 2025
1. Week 3 vs. Notre Dame: Marcel Reed‘s 11-yard touchdown pass to Nate Boerkircher on fourth-and-11 (0:19 left in Q4), plus Randy Bond‘s PAT. Win probability added: 88.4%.
2. Week 3 vs. Notre Dame: Defensive holding on Notre Dame on third-and-16 (0:46 left in Q4). Win probability added: 21.0%.
If Bama-Oklahoma was the least likely outcome of the CFP race, the single biggest play came in South Bend at the end of maybe the best game of the season. A&M erased deficits to either tie or take the lead on four occasions. After Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love scored the go-ahead TD with 2:53 left, a botched hold on a PAT left the door cracked, and after Reed and Boerkircher connected on fourth-and-long, Bond’s PAT won the game.
3. Week 12 vs. South Carolina: Tyler Onyedim and Dalton Brooks‘s sack of LaNorris Sellers for an 11-yard loss (2:00 left in Q4). Win probability added: 20.1%.
Somehow Notre Dame wasn’t even A&M’s wildest win of the year. The Aggies spotted South Carolina a 30-3 halftime lead thanks in part to a 3-for-15 funk from Reed — one that also featured three Reed turnovers and two missed field goals. Their win probability at halftime was 3%, but they calmly scored four second-half touchdowns in 20 minutes and finished off a stunningly easy comeback with a fourth-down stop.
Which defense forces more mistakes?
These two defenses are fantastic at forcing opponents behind schedule and pouncing on mistakes. These two offenses, meanwhile, make a few too many mistakes at times.
A&M’s defense is crafted around forcing third-and-longs: Linebacker Daymion Sanford and defensive tackle Tyler Onyedim have combined for 27 run stuffs (stops at or behind the line), and A&M’s 7.6 TFLs per game rank third nationally. A whopping 73% of opponents’ third downs require 7 or more yards (most in the nation), and it therefore isn’t surprising that the Aggies allow the lowest third-down conversion rate in the country (22.3%) and, thanks in part to Cashius Howell’s 11.5 sacks, they have the highest sack rate in the country (9.7%).
There’s a trade-off for this aggression: Opponents can make some awfully big plays against them at times.
The Aggies have the most all-or-nothing defense in college football.
Miami’s defense combines nearly the same efficiency levels with far lower risk and fewer big-play glitches. Thanks in part to Bain and Mesidor, the Hurricanes have forced the highest blown block rate in the country. At the back, another dynamite duo, nickel Keionte Scott and safety Jakobe Thomas, has combined for 14.5 tackles for loss, 13 run stops, 7 pass breakups, 6 sacks, 5 interceptions, 4 forced fumbles and 3 forced fumbles. (And a partridge in a pear tree!) For all of A&M’s aggression, the Canes have forced over twice as many turnovers as the Aggies (20 to nine).
I probably shouldn’t overstate these offenses’ deficiencies. Miami’s offense ranks 10th in success rate and 20th in red zone TD rate; freshman Malachi Toney has emerged as a fantastic source of efficiency: He has a 78% catch rate, he hasn’t been credited with a single drop, and he has forced 31 missed tackles, most of any CFP receiver.
A&M, meanwhile, stretches defenses both horizontally — speedsters KC Concepcion and Mario Craver are similarly dangerous at taking short passes longer distances — and vertically, with redshirt freshman Ashton Bethel-Roman emerging as a deep threat late in the season and a number of tight ends reeling in passes up the seam. It’s a wonderfully structured attack, and thanks to both strong offensive line play and Marcel Reed’s own elusiveness, the Aggies don’t suffer many negative plays.
Still, both offenses can be mistake-prone in their own ways. A&M commits too many penalties and ranks a mediocre 60th in third-down conversion rate, and Reed’s 10 interceptions are tied for the most of any CFP QB. Miami, on the other hand, boasts low explosiveness levels — 11.3 yards per successful play (119th), 6.6% of snaps gaining 20-plus yards (66th) — and ends up having to use quite a few snaps to work the ball into scoring position. More snaps equal more opportunities for mistakes, and despite throwing as many short and safe passes as anyone in the CFP, Beck has also thrown 10 INTs. The combination of A&M’s risk-heavy defense with Miami’s risk-averse offense should be fascinating.
Who gets the run game going?
What’s one time-tested way to fend off good pass rushes and avoid interceptions? Run the damn ball. Both A&M and Miami have been willing to do that in 2025. Miami’s Mark Fletcher Jr. and CharMar Brown average 20 carries per game with an excellent 54.4% success rate, while a number of A&M backs led by Rueben Owens II and, if healthy, Le’Veon Moss, have produced similar volume and efficiency numbers. (Moss has missed the past six games, and his availability appears questionable.)
The run defenses appear better than the run offenses, however. A&M is 10th in rushing success rate allowed, and while the Aggies can get hit by the big run gash, Miami doesn’t make many of those. And while A&M’s run game is 39th in yards per carry (not including sacks), Miami’s run defense is 16th. If one offense finds more advantages on the ground than the other, that advantage could make a huge difference.
Projections
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DraftKings projection: A&M 26.8, Miami 23.8 (A&M -3, over/under 50.5)
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SP+ projection: A&M 28.7, Miami 26.1
Both of these teams are capable of blowout wins or losses here, but if A&M has the edge overall, we’ll say it’s because of what might happen in close games. The Aggies are 4-0 in one-score finishes and have proved capable of winning both track meets (41-40 over Notre Dame, 45-42 over Arkansas) and rock fights (16-10 over Auburn). We already talked about Miami’s cautious late play above. If it’s close heading into the late stages, the advantage shifts to the home team.
Saturday, 3:30 p.m., TNT/HBO Max/truTV
We’ve seen six rematches this season; in five instances, the loser of the first game won the second.
There were some big swings there, though granted, there weren’t any 35-point swings. That’s the margin by which Ole Miss beat Tulane in Week 4.
Tulane’s 3 biggest plays of 2025
1. Week 7 vs. East Carolina: Jake Retzlaff‘s 63-yard touchdown pass to Zycarl Lewis Jr. (11:01 left in Q4). Win probability added: 24.8%.
Tulane got used to doing things the hard way in 2025, going 5-0 in one-score games, and things got particularly tricky in mid-October. The Green Wave dominated East Carolina in the first half but managed just four field goals and a failed fake in five scoring chances. They led only 12-0, and ECU charged ahead 16-12 in the second half. But Lewis’ long touchdown early in the fourth quarter turned the tide, and a short Javin Gordon touchdown with 35 seconds left ensured a 26-19 win.
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Jake Retzlaff throws 63-yard touchdown pass vs. East Carolina
Jake Retzlaff connects for 63-yard TD pass
2. Week 8 vs. Army: Retzlaff’s 12-yard touchdown pass to Bryce Bohanon on fourth-and-8 (2:00 left in Q4). Win probability added: 24.5%.
3. Week 8 vs. Army: Retzlaff’s 37-yard touchdown run (5:01 left in Q3). Win probability added: 20.6%.
The Wave needed more magic a week later when they got caught in a customary Army slog. Retzlaff’s touchdown run tied the game at 10-10, but Army went ahead again with six minutes remaining. No worries: Tulane simply won nearly every play after the two-minute timeout. Retzlaff and Bohanon tied the game on fourth down, Army went three-and-out, and Tulane scored the game winner with 27 seconds left.
The Wave followed up on these two tight wins by getting their doors blown off by UTSA. Suboptimal. But they went unbeaten in November and toppled North Texas in the American championship game. No one can question their resilience.
Ole Miss’ 3 biggest plays of 2025
1. Week 12 vs. Florida: Kewan Lacy‘s 59-yard run (0:12 left in Q3). Win probability added: 22.8%
2. Week 8 vs. Georgia: Trinidad Chambliss’ 75-yard touchdown pass to De’Zhaun Stribling (14:57 left in Q3). Win probability added: 20.8%.
3. Week 3 vs. Arkansas: Wydett Williams Jr.’s recovery of a Jalen Brown fumble, forced by TJ Dottery (2:00 left in Q4). Win probability added: 20.3%.
In 2024, Ole Miss won 10 games by an average of 32.8 points but lost three one-score heartbreakers. In 2025, the Rebels haven’t been nearly as dominant, but they went 5-1 in one-score games, falling only at Georgia.
Obviously they’ll have to deal with a new sort of challenge with defensive coordinator Pete Golding taking over for Lane Kiffin, but when challenged, lots of different Rebels have come up with big plays in key moments. Against Arkansas early on, the defense, torched in the first half, made three stops in four Razorback possessions and forced a game-clinching fumble. Against Florida late in the year, Lacy bullied his way to 224 yards and three touchdowns, using a 59-yard charge to set up a go-ahead touchdown early in the fourth quarter.
Last time: Ole Miss 45, Tulane 10
Ole Miss’ Week 4 win was pretty decisive. But the Green Wave truly couldn’t have played any worse. Left tackle Derrick Graham was out, and Jake Retzlaff faced a 40% pressure rate and was forced to scramble constantly; it was the first game in which the chemistry between Retzlaff and the receivers he had only recently met — he committed to transfer to Tulane in late July — was tested, and Retzlaff went a dreadful 5-for-17 for 56 yards. Three games later, Army pressured Retzlaff a similar amount, and he went 22-for-29.
The Tulane defense was in an awkward position as well. Ole Miss quarterback (and Ferris State transfer) Trinidad Chambliss had started only once in place of the injured Austin Simmons, and his tendencies were unclear. The Green Wave sent the house at him, and he torched them for five completions of 30-plus yards to four different receivers, plus a 41-yard run. Tulane limited Lacy to just 68 yards on 18 carries, and it didn’t matter.
Chambliss would torch plenty of other defenses on his way to a No. 8 Heisman finish and No. 5 Total QBR ranking.
How Tulane got right
If nothing else, Retzlaff has better chemistry with his receivers, and Tulane knows what it’s dealing with in Chambliss. That could make a solid difference, as could the simple fact that, after another “blitz a lot and get burned” game against UTSA, head coach Jon Sumrall and defensive coordinator Greg Gasparato seemed to better adapt to their defense’s strengths and weaknesses.
During the Green Wave’s current five-game winning streak — a run that included games against excellent Memphis and North Texas offenses — they’ve blitzed far less, deployed more defensive backs on average and played more safe zone coverage. They’ve sacrificed a little size for speed, and it has somehow all minimized catastrophes while also increasing disruption levels.
Perhaps most encouragingly, the Wave improved in virtually every game in this stretch. They forced five North Texas turnovers and held the Mean Green to a season-low 21 points (most of which came after they had gone up 31-7). If they can keep Ole Miss in the 20s, they’ll give themselves a chance.
Ole Miss is still the favorite for a reason
The Rebels proved their tenacity by playing well late in the season despite the constant swirling of Kiffin rumors. (Hell, Kiffin’s departure might galvanize them even further.) They’ve scored 30 or more in all but two games, and after allowing 43 points in a track-meet loss to Georgia, the Rebels’ defense overachieved at least slightly against SP+ projections in four of its past five games.
This year’s Ole Miss offense is both less explosive and less one-note than last year’s. It has improved from 75th to 40th in rushing success rate thanks to Lacy, who averages only 5.0 yards per carry but takes on a heavy load and keeps Chambliss in mostly friendly downs and distances. And on the rare third-and-longs, Chambliss has been fantastic: Ole Miss’ 38.1% success rate on third-and-7 or more is fourth nationally. The receiving corps doesn’t have a single go-to guy, but five different players have caught between 30 and 46 passes.
The Rebels’ defense is solid against the pass, as Tulane can probably attest — they’re 19th in both completion rate and passing success rate allowed. Cornerback Antonio Kite has been in and out of the lineup with injury, but Chris Graves Jr. is good. And while the run defense is flawed, rushing isn’t a Tulane strength: The Green Wave rank 22nd in yards per dropback but 75th in yards per (non-sack) rush.
Projections
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DraftKings projection: Ole Miss 37.0, Tulane 19.5 (Rebels -17.5, over/under 56.5)
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SP+ projection: Ole Miss 38.5, Tulane 20.6
I do expect Tulane to play much better this time around, and if the Green Wave give Lacy his yards but don’t get burned by big plays, they should make this a pretty fun and competitive game. But we’re still probably going to end up with a Georgia-Ole Miss quarterfinal rematch.
Saturday, 7:30 p.m., TNT/HBO Max/truTV
We’ve seen some hand-wringing regarding James Madison’s inclusion in the CFP; considering how long mid-majors had to fight for one playoff spot, getting two has offended the sensibilities of some people whose sensibilities, frankly, needed offending. But the Dukes would have been betting favorites against ACC champion Duke, and Oregon ranks fourth in SP+ and third in FPI. The Ducks were going to be big favorites regardless because they’re awesome. Still, they must take care of business against a JMU team that is, on paper, superior to the Boise State squad that outgained Penn State last year in an eventual quarterfinal loss.
James Madison’s 3 biggest plays of 2025
1. Week 13 vs. Washington State: Wayne Knight‘s 58-yard touchdown run (6:33 left in Q4). Win probability added: 27.2%.
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Wayne Knight scores 58-yard rushing touchdown
Wayne Knight scores 58-yard rushing touchdown
2. Week 13 vs. Washington State: Alonza Barnett III‘s 68-yard touchdown pass to Braeden Wisloski (2:26 left in Q3). Win probability added: 23.2%.
3. Week 7 vs. Louisiana: Barnett’s 62-yard touchdown pass to Landon Ellis (14:55 left in Q3). Win probability added: 17.4%.
I see a trend there!
The JMU defense has been strong all season, albeit against offenses weaker than Oregon’s. Louisville gained just 264 yards on the Dukes, who rank first in success rate allowed.
The offense, meanwhile, averaged 46.0 points per game and 7.2 yards per play in its final seven games. And when necessary, the Dukes could press the Big Play button. They got two long TDs in the second half of a tight game against Wazzu (which also nearly beat Ole Miss), and another long TD bailed them out against Louisiana. A huge Knight TD run defined their Sun Belt title game win, too.
Oregon’s 3 biggest plays of 2025
This was the season in which Oregon officially became a Big Ten team: The Ducks’ biggest plays came from either defense or special teams.
1. Week 5 vs. Penn State: Dillon Thieneman‘s interception of Drew Allar (OT). Win probability added: 64.7%.
2. Week 11 vs. Iowa: Atticus Sappington‘s 39-yard field goal (0:07 left in Q4). Win probability added: 52.5%.
3. Week 7 vs. Indiana: Brandon Finney Jr.’s pick-six off of Fernando Mendoza (12:53 left in Q4). Win probability added: 28.8%.
Oregon’s offense is efficient and reliable, though the Ducks are 13th in offensive SP+, their least awesome ranking under Dan Lanning. But they’re also fifth in defensive SP+, their best ranking in 67 years, and the defense came up huge in huge moments. Thieneman’s overtime interception quickly ended Penn State’s comeback attempt in State College, and with the offense stalling out against Indiana, Finney’s pick-six tied the score at 20-20 early in the fourth quarter of an eventual defeat. Plus, Sappington’s game-winning field goal allowed the Ducks to out-Iowa Iowa in Iowa City.
Can a 12 beat a 5?
From a power ratings perspective, Oregon-JMU is loosely equivalent to a 1- or 2-seed facing a 7- to 10-seed in the second round of the NCAA basketball tournament. Over the past five men’s tourneys, 1s and 2s have gone 29-7 in those second-round matchups after going 36-4 in the first round. Those are high win percentages, but we constantly see upsets because there are eight 1- or 2-seeds each year. Based on SP+ projections and the DraftKings line, this is an upset we might see once every seven or eight meetings, but we get only one bite at the apple, not eight.
If an upset occurs, it should follow a familiar formula. I’ve written about what usually happens when mid-majors upset powers, and it’s a recipe JMU is built to follow.
Score touchdowns, force field goals: JMU scores TDs on 71.2% of red zone trips (20th) and allows TDs on just 51.6% (19th). Oregon’s offense is strong in this regard (30th), but the defense is strangely poor (129th). Taking advantage of that is a must.
Dominate third and fourth downs: JMU converts 47.4% of third downs (18th) and allows opponents just 28.7% (fifth). The Dukes are super aggressive against the pass, going hard after both receivers (third in completion rate) and QBs (13th in sack rate, led by redshirt freshman Sahir West). And while that leaves you susceptible to big plays, it also creates third-and-longs. Even with the best lines JMU has faced, Oregon doesn’t do an amazing job of either creating or avoiding third-and-longs.
A couple of big plays: Not only is Knight explosive, but his explosive rushes are enormous — he has 15 carries of 20-plus yards, and seven went 40-plus. Meanwhile, though Alonza Barnett III has the lowest Total QBR in the CFP (he’s 64th overall), his big completions are similarly huge: On passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield, he averages 39.9 yards per completion. Receivers Landon Ellis and Nick DeGennaro are particularly dangerous.
JMU doesn’t hit doubles or triples — it’s all singles and home runs. With few missed tackles and safeties Dillon Thieneman and Aaron Flowers roaming at the back, Oregon might have the nation’s best big-play prevention defense. But just two home runs might go a long way.
Turnovers: This one will require some luck. JMU has just a minus-1 turnover margin, and the team must be on the positive side in Eugene. Maybe rainy conditions will help. (Or hurt.)
What we could learn about Oregon (even in a comfortable win)
Lanning teams are capable of messing around against mid-major competition. At the start of last season’s 13-0 run, the Ducks struggled to put away Jason Eck’s Idaho, then needed two return scores to beat Boise State. Still, it’s hard to shake the memory of the Fiesta Bowl two seasons ago, when, after narrowly missing out on a CFP berth, Oregon absolutely erased Liberty 45-6, scoring on seven of the first eight possessions and nearly doubling the Flames’ yardage.
JMU grades out better than 2023 Liberty, especially on defense, but Oregon is an elite team with a ruthless side. Obviously a blowout is on the table. But even in an easy Ducks win, there are two things I want to see to better understand their chances of making a playoff run.
Dante Moore on passing downs. Moore has been strong in his first year as starting quarterback, but injuries at receiver have caused some ups and downs. Dakorien Moore has missed four games, Gary Bryant Jr. has missed three, star tight end Kenyon Sadiq missed one, and Evan Stewart, last year’s No. 2 WR, hasn’t played yet because of a torn patellar tendon. Moore, Bryand and Stewart all practiced this week and are listed as questionable. Others, such as Malik Benson and Jeremiah McClellan, filled in pretty well, but against Indiana, Wisconsin and Iowa, Moore averaged just 4.2 yards per dropback with three interceptions and eight sacks. And Oregon’s 2025 performance has been heavily dependent on staying on schedule — the Ducks are first in success rate on standard downs* but 65th on passing downs.
(*I define standard downs as first downs, second-and-7 or less, and third- and fourth-and-4 or less. Passing downs are everything else.)
Dakorien Moore, Bryant and Stewart have all been practicing this week, which is tantalizing. But even if an elite and deep Oregon run game is churning nicely and Oregon isn’t behind schedule much, Dante Moore’s performance on passing downs could be telling.
Defensive disruption. Oregon’s defense ranks just 98th in stuff rate and 47th in sack rate. The Ducks’ big-play prevention levels are great, but negative plays are cheat codes in big games, and I’d love to see a bit more disruption, especially against the weakest (on paper) team they’ll face in the CFP.
Projections
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DraftKings projection: Oregon 34.5, JMU 13.0 (Ducks -21.5, over/under 47.5)
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SP+ projection: Oregon 34.3, JMU 18.9
We know Autzen Stadium will be a cauldron, and the weather could provide the sloppiness you might want from a December game in the Pacific Northwest. The entertainment value should be solid even if JMU can’t keep up, but if the Dukes follow the upset script, this could be that one-in-eight game.
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Max Olson
Ole Miss linebacker Suntarine Perkins, defensive tackle Will Echoles, center Brycen Sanders and defensive back Antonio Kite have committed to returning in 2026, the school announced Thursday.
All four starters have signed deals with the school to return under new coach Pete Golding next year, a source told ESPN, ahead of the Rebels’ first-ever College Football Playoff game.
The Rebels are working to retain their key returning players amid former coach Lane Kiffin’s move to LSU and the impending opening of the transfer portal window on Jan. 2. Kiffin is taking several assistant coaches and staffers with him to Baton Rouge.
Echoles earned second-team All-SEC honors and leads all Power 4 defensive tackles with 26 pressures this season, according to ESPN Research. Perkins was a third-team All-SEC selection in 2024 after recording a team-high 10.5 sacks.
The Rebels are also attempting to bring back star running back Kewan Lacy, the SEC’s second-leading rusher, and starting quarterback Trinidad Chambliss has said he’ll weigh his options if he receives an NCAA waiver for an additional season of eligibility.
Kiffin left for SEC rival LSU on Nov. 30 and will not coach Ole Miss in the CFP. Golding, the Rebels’ defensive coordinator for the past three years, was promoted to permanent head coach.
The No. 6 seed Rebels host No. 11 Tulane on Saturday (3:30 p.m. ET, TNT/HBO Max/truTV) in their first-round game, a rematch of a nonconference meeting the Rebels won 45-10 on Sept. 20.
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Mark Schlabach
Quarterback Beau Pribula is on the move again.
Pribula, who spent this season at Missouri after transferring from Penn State, has informed the Tigers’ coaching staff that he plans to enter the transfer portal, sources confirmed to ESPN on Thursday.
Pribula doesn’t plan to play for the Tigers (8-4) when they take on No. 19 Virginia (10-3) in the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl on Dec. 27 (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC), sources told ESPN’s Pete Thamel.
Pribula, a senior from York, Pennsylvania, helped the Tigers to a 6-1 start this season, with the only loss coming against then-No. 8 Alabama. But then he was hurt early in the third quarter of a 17-10 loss at Vanderbilt on Oct. 25. His left ankle was placed in an air cast and trainers carted him off the field.
Doctors determined that Pribula dislocated the ankle but didn’t fracture it. He missed two games before returning to play in a 17-6 loss at then-No. 8 Oklahoma. He also played in the Tigers’ 31-17 win at Arkansas in Missouri’s regular-season finale.
In 10 games, Pribula completed 67.4% of his passes for 1,941 yards with 11 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He also ran for 297 yards with six scores.
Pribula battled Sam Horn for the starting job in training camp, and both quarterbacks were expected to play in the opener. Horn, however, suffered a fractured right leg on his first play of the game in a 61-6 win against FCS program Central Arkansas and missed the rest of the season.
Freshman Matt Zollers ran the offense when Horn and Pribula were sidelined, and coach Eli Drinkwitz said Thursday that Zollers will start in the Gator Bowl.
Pribula, who was ranked the No. 8 dual-threat quarterback in the class of 2022 by ESPN, spent his first two seasons at Penn State. He left the Nittany Lions before their CFP first-round game in December 2024 after starter Drew Allar announced he was returning in 2025.
CBS Sports first reported Pribula’s intention to transfer.
Skim through the Heisman Trophy voting, and seven of the top 10 players will be on the field in this year’s College Football Playoff. Our apologies to Jeremiyah Love, whom we’d love to see there, too, but that’s an issue for Notre Dame and the ACC to work out.
But that list only scratches the surface of the depth of talent that will be showcased in this year’s playoff. From Ohio State‘s wealth of riches to James Madison’s band of upstarts, the 12 teams that made this year’s playoff are loaded with future NFL draft picks, college stars and under-the-radar gems just waiting to become household names on the sport’s biggest stage.
Before the games kicked off, ESPN’s panel of experts (Bill Connelly, David Hale, Max Olson and Adam Rittenberg) attempted to whittle down those 12 rosters to provide the definitive ranking of the 50 best players in this year’s playoff. It was no easy task. We’ve left off a bevy of names that we’ll no doubt come to regret — Georgia’s KJ Bolden, Oregon‘s Bear Alexander and Alabama‘s Germie Bernard and Kadyn Proctor — but that’s only another reminder of just how much star power will be on display in the coming weeks.
The criteria for our list is much like the process used by the College Football Playoff committee, insofar as we mostly made it up as we went. But the bigger point here was to identify not only the players who put up the best numbers during the regular season or the biggest names on the teams most likely to make a deep run, but to find the best players, the ones who’ll have a chance to have postseason star turns the way Will Howard, Cam Skattebo and Jack Sawyer did in 2024.
So, who will be this year’s most impactful playoff performers? The list starts here. — David Hale
OG, Tulane, redshirt junior
2025 notable stats: 849 snaps, 2 pressures, 0 sacks allowed
2025 preseason ranking: NR
The 6-foot-2, 293-pound big man has developed into a three-year starter at left guard for the Green Wave and has earned first-team All-American Conference honors in back-to-back seasons. Veteran leaders such as Hurst are a big reason why this squad was able to reload for 2025 after losing top players to the portal and pull off an 11-win season and a run to the CFP. — Max Olson
WR, Oklahoma, redshirt junior
2025 notable stats: 65 rec, 948 rec yards, 7 TDs
2025 preseason ranking: NR
The Arkansas transfer who emerged as a No. 1 receiver and All-SEC performer has been a massive development for helping Oklahoma overcome its recent offensive struggles. Sategna’s explosive touchdowns in close wins over Missouri and LSU played a big part in helping secure the Sooners’ CFP bid, and his 1,273 all-purpose yards were second most among all SEC wideouts. — Olson
QB, James Madison, redshirt junior
2025 notable stats: 2,533 yards, 21 TDs, 61.2 QBR
2025 preseason ranking: NR
The Sun Belt Player of the Year has enjoyed a terrific two-year run as the Dukes’ starter with 6,117 total yards, 68 touchdowns, just 12 interceptions and a 20-5 record. He led his squad on an undefeated run through Sun Belt play with eight wins by double-digit margins and surpassed 300 total yards in five games, including a 448-yard performance against Old Dominion. — Olson
LB, Indiana, senior
2025 notable stats: 35 solo tackles, 7 TFLs, 2 INTs
2025 preseason ranking: 77
Fisher, a three-year starter, was a first-team All-American in his debut season with the Hoosiers after transferring from James Madison and had another highly productive year as a key leader for the No. 2 scoring defense in FBS. The 6-foot-1, 231-pound senior had a season-high 13 stops in the Hoosiers’ pivotal road win at Oregon and opened their victory over UCLA with a pick-six. — Olson
QB, Miami, redshirt senior
2025 notable stats: 3,072 yards, 25 TDs, 80.5 QBR
2025 preseason ranking: 29
Beck bypassed the NFL draft for a sixth year in college and one more chance to make a deep CFP run with the Hurricanes. He returned from an elbow injury and in form this season with the second-best completion percentage in FBS and the top QBR in the ACC. Beck led four wins over AP top-25 opponents and has boosted his career record as a starter to 34-5. — Olson
QB, Texas A&M, redshirt sophomore
2025 notable stats: 2,932 yards, 25 TDs, 77.8 QBR
2025 preseason ranking: NR
After taking over as Texas A&M’s starter during the 2024 season, Reed took a big step forward in his third year with nearly 3,400 total yards and a top-five QBR in the SEC (77.8). He had what it took to lead the Aggies to a last-minute road victory at Notre Dame and a 27-point comeback against South Carolina on their way to an 11-0 start. When he gets hot, few dual-threat quarterbacks are more fun to watch. — Olson
OT, Ohio State, redshirt junior
2025 notable stats: 759 snaps, 0 sacks allowed
2025 preseason ranking: NR
After earning six starts at left guard last season for the national champions, Siereveld moved to left tackle and proved he could be among the Big Ten’s best, earning second-team all-conference honors from the league’s coaches. Siereveld and his fellow starters up front kept quarterback Julian Sayin protected throughout his run to becoming a Heisman finalist, with only 11 sacks allowed through 13 games. — Olson
DL, Oklahoma, senior
2025 notable stats: 21 pressures, 6.5 sacks, 9.5 TFLs
2025 preseason ranking: NR
Thomas has played in only nine games, yet still earned first-team All-SEC honors from the conference’s coaches. He has been that impressive as a pass rusher and logged all 6.5 of his sacks in SEC play for a Sooners defense that’s leading the country in TFLs and sacks. Thomas sat out most of November because of a quad injury and is working to try to get back on the field for the CFP. — Olson
LB, Alabama, redshirt senior
2025 notable stats: 75 tackles, 37 solo, 3 TFLs
2025 preseason ranking: 27
Lawson put in the work to come back from a torn ACL sustained late in the 2024 season and again played at an All-SEC level for the Crimson Tide as a senior. The two-time team captain delivered two of the biggest plays of the season for Alabama’s defense with his fourth-quarter strip against South Carolina and his fumble recovery against Auburn to clinch close victories. — Olson
QB, Alabama, redshirt junior
2025 notable stats: 3,268 yards, 26 TDs, 76.7 QBR
2025 preseason ranking: NR
Simpson did what QBs rarely do these days in waiting until Year 4 to become a starting QB. He proved he can perform under pressure in leading a run of four consecutive victories over ranked SEC foes to kick off conference play, and he went on to earn second-team All-SEC honors from the conference’s coaches. — Olson
DL, James Madison, redshirt freshman
2025 notable stats: 16 solo tackles, 7 sacks, 1 FF
2025 preseason ranking: NR
West put together a remarkable redshirt freshman season at JMU after logging only seven snaps a season ago. The 6-foot-4, 270-pound defensive end earned Sun Belt Freshman of the Year honors this season and currently ranks second in the conference in TFLs and third in sacks. He brought his best in the Sun Belt title game with nine pressures and three sacks in a 31-14 victory over Troy. — Olson
DT, Oregon, junior
2025 notable stats: 4 TFLs, 29 total tackles, 6 PBUs
2025 preseason ranking: NR
He fortified Oregon’s defensive line in his first season as a starter, earning third-team All-Big Ten honors and contributing 29 tackles, four for loss, with five quarterback hurries and six pass breakups. Washington helped the Ducks rise to No. 9 nationally in points allowed. Oregon ranked 20th nationally against the run. — Adam Rittenberg
DT, Ole Miss, sophomore
2025 notable stats: 55 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 8 TFLs
2025 preseason ranking: NR
The 310-pound sophomore from Houston, Mississippi, was one of the stars of Ole Miss’ 2024 recruiting class, and he has enjoyed a breakout campaign as a first-time starter. He has made 45 of his 55 tackles against the run — five of his 11 run stops (tackles at or behind the line) came in tight midseason wins over LSU and Washington State — but he has also had 4.5 sacks. — Bill Connelly
OLB, Texas Tech, senior
2025 notable stats: 47 tackles, 9 sacks, 46 pressures
2025 preseason ranking: NR
Playing for his fourth school in five years, Height has been the perfect foil for any offense that tries to focus too much attention on David Bailey. The 24-year-old pass-rush specialist has nine sacks and an elite 18.4% pressure rate, and he has been remarkably consistent all season: He has recorded at least three pressures in 12 of 13 games, with at least a half-sack in eight. — Connelly
RB, James Madison, junior
2025 notable stats: 190 carries, 1,263 yards, 10 total TDs
2025 preseason ranking: NR
The 5-foot-7, 190-pounder has evolved into the most important player on the JMU offense. He has produced at least 85 yards from scrimmage in 12 of 13 games and produced 223 in the Sun Belt championship game win over Troy. He only grows more effective over time, too: He averages a strong 6.8 yards per touch in the first three quarters and an incredible 9.7 in the fourth. — Connelly
OLB, Oregon, junior
2025 notable stats: 61 tackles, 13 TFLs, 2 FFs
2025 preseason ranking: NR
The former blue-chipper was a contributor from almost day one at Oregon and has blossomed into almost the perfect outside linebacker. He set career highs in TFLs (13), run stops (14), sacks (seven) and forced fumbles (two), and when he missed a tackle against Washington in the fourth quarter of Oregon’s 12th game, it was his first official miss all season. — Connelly
CB, Indiana, junior
2025 notable stats: 39 tackles, 31 solo, 8 PDs
2025 preseason ranking: 82
A freshman All-American at James Madison, Ponds has been a huge part of the Indiana rebuild from Curt Cignetti’s first day in charge. He can line up wide or in the slot, and he’s one of the nation’s surest tacklers at the cornerback position. Don’t even bother targeting him downfield: On passes of 10 or more air yards, he has given up only a 28% completion rate. — Connelly
WR, Georgia, junior
2025 notable stats: 73 rec, 744 yards, 5 TDs
2025 preseason ranking: NR
As an extension of the run game, Branch catches most of his passes near the line of scrimmage but averages 8.1 yards after catch. After a reasonably slow start, Branch averaged 6.6 catches and 64.7 yards over his past seven games. He also might be the scariest return man in the CFP. — Connelly
WR, Indiana, junior
2025 notable stats: 58 rec, 804 yards, 11 TDs
2025 preseason ranking: NR
Cooper combined with Elijah Sarratt to provide the perfect 1-2 punch for Fernando Mendoza. He enjoyed two perfect games this season (he caught a combined 18 of 18 passes for 322 yards against Indiana State and Michigan State), and with Sarratt hurt, he made the catch of the year against Penn State with a toe-tapping touchdown with 41 seconds left. — Connelly
DE, Miami, senior
2025 notable stats: 52 tackles, 12 TFLs, 7 sacks
2025 preseason ranking: NR
A sixth-year senior and West Virginia transfer, Mesidor has been a fantastic battery mate for Rueben Bain Jr., either tying or setting career highs this season in TFLs (12), run stops (10), sacks (seven), pressures (42) and pressure rate (13.9%). Following Miami’s back-to-back losses, he raised his game down the stretch, helping to assure the Hurricanes’ rebounded in the CFP rankings. — Connelly
DE, Oklahoma, sophomore
2025 notable stats: 43 tackles, 12 TFLs, 6 sacks
2025 preseason ranking: NR
Oklahoma lost R Mason Thomas to injury in November, and Wein, who entered the season with only one career tackle, made sure it didn’t matter in the slightest. He recorded at least one TFL in 10 of 12 games, and he made 2.5 sacks with seven pressures in late wins over Alabama and Missouri. Thomas’ return to the lineup could take the focus off of him and also make him more effective. — Connelly
S, Oregon, junior
2025 notable stats: 31 solo tackles, 2 INTs, 4 PDs
2025 preseason ranking: NR
After serving his time at Purdue, Thieneman moved to Eugene and quickly thrived as a patrolman in the back. Oregon ranks fifth nationally in yards allowed per dropback (4.7) and ninth in interception rate (4.0%), and Thieneman’s fingerprints are all over that. His overtime interception against Penn State both clinched a CFP berth for the Ducks (in retrospect) and sent the Nittany Lions spiraling. — Connelly
S, Indiana, senior
2025 notable stats: 67 tackles, 6 INTs, 2.5 TFLs
2025 preseason ranking: NR
A former junior college player who sued for an extra year of eligibility, Moore transferred back to Indiana after a year at Ole Miss, and he has become a wonderfully effective ball hawk for a defense that is tied for sixth nationally with 25 takeaways. An active defensive front creates pressure and then Moore swoops in to pounce on a quarterback’s mistakes. — Connelly
QB, Ole Miss, senior
2025 notable stats: 3,016 yards, 19 total TDs, 86.0 QBR
2025 preseason ranking: NR
A year ago, Chambliss was leading Ferris State to the Division II title. Now he’s leading Ole Miss into its first CFP. Austin Simmons began the season as the Rebels’ starter but sustained an early injury. Chambliss made the most of his 10 starts, finishing fifth in Total QBR and eighth in the Heisman voting. He’s a passer first, but he will torch you with his legs if you let him. — Connelly
WR, Ohio State, senior
2025 notable stats: 48 rec, 838 yards, 9 TDs
2025 preseason ranking: 67
The best No. 3 receiver in the country last season, Tate has become maybe the best No. 2 in 2025. He has topped 100 yards four times this season — including a 183-yard effort against Minnesota — and he has caught at least one touchdown pass in eight of the 10 games he has played. Tate sat out three games in November but returned to catch the clinching 50-yard TD against Michigan. — Connelly
DT, Texas Tech, senior
2025 notable stats: 11 solo tackles, 8.5 TFL, 2.5 sacks
2025 preseason ranking: NR
Part of Texas Tech’s lucrative defensive transfer class, Hunter arrived from UCF and immediately had an impact on the Red Raiders’ front. Hunter earned third-team AP All-America honors and was a first-team All-Big 12 selection after fortifying the interior line with 34 tackles. The 6-foot-4, 330-pound Hunter regularly commanded double-teams and helped Texas Tech become the nation’s best against the run. — Rittenberg
QB, Georgia, redshirt junior
2025 notable stats: 2,691 yards, 31 total TDs
2025 preseason ranking: NR
Stockton waited his turn to become Georgia’s starter as a fourth-year junior and was certainly up for the challenge, leading the Bulldogs to another SEC title with a nine-game win streak since an early loss to Alabama. He currently ranks No. 6 nationally in QBR (85.8) and offered plenty of proof in tough tests against Ole Miss, Texas and Tennessee that he’s capable of taking his team on another title run. — Olson
TE, Oregon, junior
2025 notable stats: 40 rec, 490 yards, 8 TDs
2025 preseason ranking: NR
In a season in which injuries hit Oregon’s wide receiver room especially hard, Sadiq emerged as a capable target. He earned second-team AP All-America honors and was named the Big Ten’s Tight End of the Year after recording eight touchdown catches — most among FBS tight ends — and a team-high 40 receptions. Despite sitting out some time because of injury, Sadiq recorded 490 receiving yards and became the first Oregon tight end to be a finalist for the Mackey Award. — Rittenberg
WR, Indiana, senior
2025 notable stats: 51 rec, 687 yards, 12 TDs
2025 preseason ranking: 78
One of coach Curt Cignetti’s plug-and-play transfers from James Madison, Sarratt followed a third-team All-Big Ten season in 2024 with a second-team selection this fall, despite sitting out some time because of a hamstring injury. Sarratt recorded touchdown catches in all but two games he played and had three multi-touchdown performances and four with seven or more receptions. Sarratt has 186 receptions for 2,835 yards and 28 touchdowns during the past three seasons. — Rittenberg
LB, Ohio State, senior
2025 notable stats: 45 solo tackles, 1 FF, 1 INT
2024 preseason ranking: 62
The 6-foot-5, 243-pound playmaker has performed at an All-America level for the Buckeyes and should be a first-round NFL draft pick next spring after shining under new defensive coordinator Matt Patricia. He’s the leading tackler on the No. 1 defense in the country, had a season-high 12 stops in the Big Ten title game and ranks fourth among all starting linebackers in Pro Football Focus grading this season. — Olson
0:33
Alabama comes away with a big-time INT in the 3rd quarter
Bray Hubbard hauls in the tipped ball for a big-time Crimson Tide interception.
S, Alabama, junior
2025 notable stats: 4 INT, 6 PBU, 3 FFs
2025 preseason ranking: NR
After emerging as a starter in 2024 and leading the team with three interceptions, Hubbard solidified himself as one of the nation’s best defensive backs this season. The junior safety from Mississippi earned first-team All-America honors and again led Alabama with four interceptions, while contributing 66 tackles and a team-high six pass breakups. Hubbard had an interception and a forced fumble in Alabama’s narrow win against Auburn in the Iron Bowl. — Rittenberg
OT, Miami, junior
2025 notable stat: Nation’s third-highest pass-blocking grade (88.8)
2025 preseason ranking: 24
A mainstay at right tackle for the past three seasons, Mauigoa earned first-team AP All-America honors this fall after anchoring one of the nation’s top offensive lines. Miami ranks fifth nationally in fewest tackles for loss allowed (3.5 per game) and tied for eighth in fewest sacks allowed (.92 per game), while averaging 37.8 points during the final four regular-season games. He won the ACC’s Jacobs Blocking Trophy and earned the nation’s third-highest pass-blocking grade (88.8) from Pro Football Focus. — Rittenberg
QB, Oregon, sophomore
2025 notable stats: 2,733 yards, 24 TDs, 77.8 QBR
2025 preseason ranking: NR
After starting five games as a true freshman at UCLA in 2023, Moore took the rare step of transferring to a place where he knew playing time would be limited. He used the gap year in 2024 to refocus and blossomed this fall for the Ducks, completing 72.5% of his pass attempts with 24 touchdowns and six interceptions. Moore helped rally Oregon to road wins against Penn State and Iowa and had 849 passing yards in his final three regular-season games that has him projected as possibly the top pick in the 2026 NFL draft. — Rittenberg
OT, Indiana, junior
2025 notable stat: No. 2 graded offensive lineman in the Power 4
2025 preseason ranking: NR
The Hoosiers prioritized upgrading their offensive line after 2024 and made several key additions through the portal. Their best blocker though turned out to be a holdover in Smith, who started the previous two seasons for the Hoosiers at left tackle. He protected the blind side of Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza and became the first Indiana player named Big Ten Offensive Lineman of the Year. Smith also is the first IU tackle to earn first-team All-Big Ten honors since Charley Peal in 1977. — Rittenberg
LB, Ohio State, junior
2025 notable stats: 6.5 sacks, 10 TFL, 62 total tackles
2025 preseason ranking: NR
A new set of stars emerged to lead the nation’s No. 1 defense this fall, and Reese was undeniably front and center. He has thrived under new coordinator Matt Patricia, recording 6.5 sacks and 10 tackles for loss from the edge position and finished second on the squad with 62 total tackles. One of three Buckeyes defenders named a first-team AP All-American, Reese was named Big Ten’s Linebacker of the Year and recorded a sack in six of Ohio State’s first eight games of the season. — Rittenberg
WR, Miami, freshman
2025 notable stats: 84 rec, 970 yards, 7 TDs
2025 preseason ranking: NR
The Miami native dazzled in his home area during his freshman year at the U, recording twice as many receptions than any other Hurricanes player this season, while leading the ACC in touchdowns and ranking fourth in the league in receiving yards, which marked a Miami freshman record. Toney had four 100-yard receiving performances, including in each of his final two regular-season games. A second-team AP All-America selection, Toney earned ACC Rookie of the Year honors after leading FBS freshmen in receptions. — Rittenberg
G, Oregon, senior
2025 notable stat: 87.3 pass-blocking grade
2025 preseason ranking: NR
A key member of an Oregon offensive front reshaped through the transfer portal, Pregnon earned first-team AP All-America honors during his first season with the Ducks. After starting two seasons for USC, Pregnon helped protect quarterback Dante Moore, giving up no sacks and only three pressures on 335 pass-blocking opportunities. Oregon enters the CFP ranked sixth in fewest tackles for loss allowed. — Rittenberg
DL, Ohio State, junior
2025 notable stats: 28 solo tackles, 3 sacks, 2 FFs
2025 preseason ranking: NR
Running against Ohio State is no easy task, thanks in large part to the work of McDonald around the line of scrimmage. McDonald racked up 16 run stuffs this season — stops on runs at or behind the line — while making 60 total tackles on plays that gained an average of just 1.1 yards. McDonald missed only two tackles all season, making him one of the most reliable defenders on the D-line in the country. — Hale
RB, Ole Miss, sophomore
2025 notable stats: 258 carries, 20 TDs, 1,279 yards
2025 preseason ranking: NR
After playing sparingly for Missouri in 2024, Lacy became one of the top impact transfers in the country under coach Lane Kiffin and the Rebels. He set an Ole Miss single-season record with 20 rushing touchdowns and became the school’s first finalist for the Doak Walker Award. Lacy leads the nation in rushing touchdowns and is fourth nationally in points per game. According to Pro Football Focus, he is second nationally in missed tackles forced (84) and fourth in yards after contact (809). Lacy had at least one rushing touchdown in all but one game. — Rittenberg
DL, Ohio State, senior
2025 notable stats: 36 solo tackles, 11 sacks, 1 FF
2025 preseason ranking: NR
Curry was a nightmare for opposing quarterbacks this season, racking up 11 sacks, 16.5 tackles for loss, six QB hurries and 40 pressures. Curry’s versatility allowed him to create havoc on the edge and inside throughout the season, and his ability to move in space and play physical helped him rack up 62 total tackles, most in the Big Ten by a defensive lineman. — Hale
WR, Texas A&M, junior
2025 notable stats: 886 yards, 9 TDs, 12 total TDs
2025 preseason ranking: NR
No incoming transfer this season has affected two phases of the game as much as Concepcion, who won the Paul Hornung Award as the nation’s most versatile player. The NC State transfer earned first-team All-SEC honors at wide receiver, return specialist and all-purpose player, after leading the league with nine receiving touchdowns and 480 all-purpose yards. He became the first A&M player in the modern era to score on a reception, a rush and a punt return in the same year. Concepcion had 57 receptions for 886 yards. — Hale
DL, Miami, junior
2025 notable stats: 19 solo tackles, 4.5 sacks, 1 INT
2025 preseason ranking: 33
The numbers don’t exactly scream superstar. Bain had 4.5 sacks, 7.5 tackles for loss and 37 total tackles. But ask any QB or offensive coordinator who faced Miami this season who the best player on the field was, and the answer probably would be unanimous. Bain’s motor is unrivaled, and the attention he commands at the line of scrimmage opens up lanes for others on Miami’s front. For the season, Bain racked up 48 pressures — tops in the ACC — and 18 stops at or behind the line of scrimmage. — Hale
LB, Georgia, junior
2025 notable stats: 45 solo tackles, 3.5 sacks, 2 FFs
2025 preseason ranking: 38
Perhaps the most fierce player on the Dawgs’ defense, Allen is a machine in the middle for Georgia, racking up 85 total tackles, including eight for a loss. He added four PBUs, two QB hurries, two forced fumbles and contested seven of 16 targets while in coverage. — Hale
CB, Ohio State, junior
2025 notable stats: 18 solo tackles, 1 INT
2025 preseason ranking: 3
Downs picked off two passes this season, which is far more impressive than it sounds, because despite playing 322 snaps in coverage, opposing QBs targeted him only 20 times. Downs gave up only nine catches all season as the primary defender, accounting for only 72 yards and no touchdowns. The longest completion he gave up was 17 yards. A 14-yard completion in the second quarter of the Big Ten title game was the first one he’d given up in nearly two months. There is not a more lockdown corner in the country than Downs. — Hale
DL, Texas A&M, senior
2025 notable stats: 19 solo tackles, 11.5 sacks, 1 FF
2025 preseason ranking: NR
The problem, according to Miami coach Mario Cristobal, with trying to control Texas A&M’s pass rush is that the Aggies so rarely need to bring extra help. The front four dominates on its own. There’s plenty of praise to go around, of course, but the leader of that group is Howell, who led the SEC with 11.5 sacks and finished fourth with 14 tackles for loss. Howell added five QB hurries, six PBUs and a forced fumble for good measure. If the Aggies are going to make a deep run, it probably will be because of the chaos created up front by Howell & Co. — Hale
QB, Ohio State, sophomore
2025 notable stats: 3,323 passing yards, 31 TDs
2025 preseason ranking: NR
When Will Howard left after winning a national championship last season, Ohio State could’ve chased another veteran in the portal. Instead, the Buckeyes handed the keys to the best roster in college football to a player with no real previous experience. Sayin didn’t flinch. From beating Texas in Week 1 to blossoming into a Heisman finalist by year’s end, Sayin never appeared overwhelmed by the moment, racking up an eye-popping stat line that included 31 touchdown passes, only six interceptions and a nearly 79% completion percentage. Sayin’s 182.2 passer rating was the best in the country, and if he makes a similar leap in the playoff as Howard did last year — there might be no stopping Ohio State from a repeat. — Hale
OLB, Texas Tech, senior
2025 notable stats: 27 solo tackles, 13.5 sacks, 3 FFs
2025 preseason ranking: 57
One of the best pass rushers in the country, Bailey led all Power 4 players in sacks with 13.5. He finished the regular season with 17.5 tackles for loss, 13 QB hurries, 65 pressures, a ridiculous 19.9% pressure rate and three forced fumbles. The Red Raiders’ defensive front was its best weapon, and no one on that D-line created more havoc in 2025 than Bailey. — Hale
LB, Texas Tech, senior
2025 notable stats: 117 tackles, 61 solo, 7 FFs
2025 preseason ranking: 92
Arguably the best defensive player in the country in 2025, Rodriguez dominated in all areas for Texas Tech this season. He racked up 117 tackles, second most in the Big 12. He picked off four passes, had 11 tackles for loss, broke up six passes and forced seven fumbles. And as if it wasn’t enough to dominate on defense, Rodriguez even got into the action on offense, rushing twice and scoring both times. — Hale
WR, Ohio State, sophomore
2025 notable stats: 1,086 rec yards, 11 TDs
2025 preseason ranking: 1
If we’re ranking based on talent alone, there’s a good argument that no player comes close to matching Smith’s ability. Smith caught 80 balls for 1,086 yards and 11 touchdowns as a sophomore, but that doesn’t really tell the story. It’s how he has done it. Smith commands double-teams constantly, draws the attention of everyone’s best corner, and has every defensive coordinator he faces scheming to slow him down. And none of it has mattered. Smith continues to produce big play after big play, opening up options for Ohio State’s offense all over the field. — Hale
QB, Indiana, junior
2025 notable stats: 2,980 passing yards, 39 total TDs
2025 preseason ranking: NR
The Heisman Trophy winner has to top the list. Mendoza was a force for Indiana, as the Hoosiers took the next step from playoff Cinderella in 2024 to the No. 1 team in the country entering the 2025 postseason. Mendoza’s final numbers tell the story: more than 3,200 total yards, 39 touchdowns and only six interceptions for the last undefeated team in the country. — Hale
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