Black Friday sales do not appear to have provided much cheer for retailers amid continued consumer caution, according to official figures.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported a 0.1% decline in sales volumes during November, compared to the previous month, when the data is adjusted for seasonal effects due to the pre-Christmas shopping bonanza falling in December last year.
Economists polled by the Reuters news agency had expected growth of 0.4%. The dip was worse when the effects of fuel sales were excluded.
Rolling three-month data showed positive sales volumes were only propped up by strength in September.
ONS senior statistician Hannah Finselbach said: “Retail continued to grow in the three months to November, helped by a strong performance from clothing and tech shops.
“This year November’s Black Friday discounts did not boost sales as much as in some recent years, meaning that once we adjust for usual seasonality, our headline figures fell a little on the month.
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“Meanwhile, our separate household survey showed that although some people said they were planning to do more shopping… this Black Friday than last, almost twice as many said they were planning to do less.”
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The data was released against a backdrop of widespread consumer and business caution in the run-up to the budget on 26 November – held just two days before Black Friday – although promotional activity was already well underway before Rachel Reeves’s speech.
That period was dominated by on-off signals over income tax hikes and black holes in the public finances, but the budget itself largely backdated many of the most painful measures towards the end of the parliament.
While the ONS data does little to boost retailers’ expectations for the Christmas season, there was a crumb of comfort to take from a closely-watched survey released just beforehand.
GfK’s consumer confidence index nudged up to its joint-highest level this year – though it remained deep in negative territory.
Why isn’t Britain working?
The biggest upwards contribution came from a willingness to make major purchases, despite perceptions for personal finances weighing amid continuing cost-of-living pressures in the economy.
Neil Bellamy, GfK’s consumer insights director, said: “Consumers resemble a family on a festive winter hike, crossing a boggy field – plodding along stoically, getting stuck in the mud and hoping that easier conditions are not far off.”
We have had better economic news since the survey was completed.
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It promises a boost to spending power as borrowing costs come down further, with wage growth still rising above that pace for price growth.
It is now hoped that the end of the budget circus will spark some life into the economy following two consecutive monthly contractions for output and a surge in the unemployment rate.
Much of the increase has been attributed to the retail and hospitality sectors reacting to sharp rises in employment costs under the Labour government.
Consumer spending accounts for around 60% of the UK economy.
Richard Carter, head of fixed interest research at Quilter Cheviot, said of the outlook: “Markets do not believe growth is coming to the UK anytime soon.
“Indeed, the UK is likely to slip into recession if the latest GDP figures are anything to go by, and there is little sign of positive momentum being generated.”
Two of Britain’s biggest high street banks are embroiled in a £2.5bn takeover battle for Evelyn Partners, the wealth management group.
Sky News has learnt that Barclays and NatWest Group were among the bidders notified last week that they were through to the second round of the Evelyn auction.
Royal Bank of Canada is also said to be in the frame to buy Evelyn, while a number of private equity firms have also tabled offers for the business.
Lloyds Banking Group is understood to have explored an offer for Evelyn, although it was unclear on Tuesday whether it remained interested.
For Barclays and NatWest, an acquisition of Evelyn would bolster an area of their businesses where both already have a strong presence – the latter through its Coutts division.
Paul Thwaite, NatWest’s chief executive, has been clear that the bank will consider acquisitions where they are sensibly priced and strategically attractive following its return this year to full private sector ownership.
According to results published in August, Evelyn had assets under management of £64.6bn at the end of June, reflecting growing demand across the wealth management sector.
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Canaccord Genuity’s wealth arm is also on the block and could fetch a price of over £1bn.
Evelyn is owned by the private equity firms Permira and Warburg Pincus, having merged their respective firms Tilney and Smith & Williamson in 2020.
Last year, Evelyn’s professional services arm was sold to the buyout firm Apax Partners.
The current auction is being handled by bankers at Evercore.
A millionaires’ playground, Poole in Dorset boasts some of the most expensive properties in the UK, and has been called Britain’s Palm Beach.
Away from the yachts and the mansions of Sandbanks, however, Poole is also a beer drinkers’ paradise, with 58 pubs in the parliamentary constituency alone.
But now many of Dorset’s pub landlords have joined a bitter backlash against rises in business rates of up to £30,000 in Rachel Reeves’s November budget.
Across the UK, it is claimed up to 1,000 publicans have even banned Labour MPs from their pubs, after the chancellor axed a 40% rates discount, introduced during COVID, from next April.
The row over the rises, brewing since the budget, came to a head in a clash between Kemi Badenoch and Sir Keir Starmer in the final Prime Minister’s Questions of 2025.
“He gave his word that he would help pubs,” said the Tory leader.
“Yet they face a 15% rise in business rates because of his budget. Will he be honest and admit that his taxes are forcing pubs to close?”
The PM replied that the temporary relief introduced during COVID – a scheme the Conservatives put in place and Labour supported, he said – had come to an end.
“But it was always a temporary scheme coming to an end,” he said.
“We have now put in place a £4bn transitional relief.”
Image: Mark and Michael Ambrose, father and son co-landlords of The Barking Cat, said the increases are a ‘pub destroyer’
But in the Barking Cat Ale House in Poole, facing an increase in business rates of nearly £9,000 a year, the father and son co-landlords fear the rises could mean last orders for many pubs.
“We’re sort of in the average area at 157%, but we’ve got a lot of local pubs that are increasing by 600%, and another one by 800%,” Ambrose senior, Mark, told Sky News.
“It’s a pub destroyer. Pubs can’t survive these kinds of increases. It’s not viable. Most pubs are just about scraping by anyway. If you add these massive increases your profit margins are wiped out.
“We struggle as it is. You can’t have that kind of increase and expect businesses to succeed.
“Fortunately, the customers understand. But they still don’t want to have to spend an extra 30 or 50 pence a pint.”
Son Michael added: “It’s all back to front. It’s really these bigger pub companies and supermarkets that need to be facing increased taxes. We can’t handle them. They can.”
Michelle Smith, landlady of the Poole Arms, the oldest pub on the town’s quay, dating back to 1635, said: “Our rates per value is due to go up £9,000 in April, so it’s quite a deal.”
Image: Michelle Smith, landlady of The Poole Arms, said all her prices are going up
“And we had a rates increase just gone as well,” she added. “So our rates had already increased over £1,000 a month last April. So another hit is quite considerable really.
“Prices definitely have to go up with all the different price increases that we’ve got throughout: business rates, wage increases, the beer goes up from the breweries. Everything is going up.”
Backing the publicans, Neil Duncan-Jordan, who became Poole’s first ever Labour MP last year, has written to the chancellor demanding a rethink. He said he is prepared to vote against the tax rise in the Commons.
“They’ve got to listen,” he told Sky News.
“They’ve got to listen to the high street, to publicans, people who run social clubs and listen to problems that they’re facing and the impact that these changes have made.”
Pint price rises to come unless govt make changes
Mr Duncan-Jordan said he was prepared to support an amendment to the Finance Bill, which turns the budget into law and had its second reading in the Commons last week.
Despite being suspended for four months for rebelling against welfare cuts earlier this year, he said: “I was discussing this with some MPs just this morning and I’ll be happy to support those. Sometimes you just have to say what you think is right.”
As chancellor, Ms Reeves has regularly raised a glass to pubs and promised to protect them from rising costs.
But Sir Keir has faced the wrath of a publican before, when he was thrown out of a pub in Bath during COVID by an anti-lockdown landlord.
This time, without a U-turn by the chancellor on the business rates increases, pub landlords fear the government has them over a barrel.
Informa, the FTSE-100 events group behind the Fort Lauderdale International Boat Show and World of Concrete, is kicking off a search for its next chairman.
Sky News has learnt that Informa, which has a market capitalisation of about £11.3bn, is working with headhunters to find a successor to John Rishton.
City sources said on Monday that Russell Reynolds Associates was handling the search.
A former chief executive of Rolls Royce Group, Mr Rishton joined the Informa board in September 2016 before taking over as chairman nearly five years later.
People close to the process said he was likely to step down in 2027, by which time he will have served for nearly 11 years as a director.
Informa has a large data division, which has been responsible for a significant proportion of its recent growth.
Its assets previously included the historic maritime news and analysis service Lloyd’s List, which claims to be the world’s longest published business newspaper.
Earlier this year, it emerged that Lord Carter, the company’s chief executive, had moved his residency to Dubai to reflect its rapid growth prospects in the Gulf region.
The launch of a hunt for a new chairman and Lord Carter’s recent relocation makes it increasingly likely that he will extend his current 12-year tenure by at least another two years.
Shares in Informa, which declined to comment on the search for Mr Rishton’s successor, closed on Monday at 885.2p.