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Sacking Suella Braverman means “suicide” for the Tory party and Rishi Sunak has just “thrown the election away” according to leaked WhatsApp messages between members of a grassroots Conservative organisation leaked to Sky News.

Members of the Conservative Democratic Organisation (CDO), a momentum-style group created out of frustration at the ousting of Boris Johnson and Liz Truss and backed by Priti Patel, called on Tory MPs to submit letters of no confidence in Rishi Sunak after Monday’s reshuffle.

Conversations between CDO members on Monday reveal they believe “Sunak has committed political suicide” and “the cabinet is pretty much the exact opposite of what we voted for in 2019” while another asks “is it April Fool’s day???”

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The CDO, whose president is Lord Peter Cruddas, aims to change the rules of the Tory party to give the membership a bigger voice in its running.

Sky News has seen messages from regional WhatsApp groups where CDO members give their views on the reshuffle. Many, but not all, are Conservative members, and almost none are nationally recognisable figures so are not being named by Sky News.

These views are not representative, therefore, of the whole Tory membership, but represent a slice of Conservative thinking inside and outside the party. It chimes with some Tory MPs on the right who believe the reshuffle will bolster Reform UK, the right-wing party created from the Brexit Party.

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In the South East CDO group, one contributor calls the appointment of David Cameron a “very weak decision”, another calls it the “undoing of the party” and a third says “FFS”.

One says “the only good news would be if Kemi [Badenoch, business secretary] replaces [Chancellor Jeremy] Hunt but I can’t see it”.

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WhatsApp messages sent by angry Tory supporters

Some in relation to Cameron refer to conspiracy theories about an elite in Davos controlling the world.

“His biggest regret was Brexit, even though he was always a eurosceptic. Why? Because it robbed him of post PM £s on the Davos circuit. He’s back to redeem himself under Davos darling Nutsak”. “Nutsak” is an occasional nickname for Sunak in this group.

“I’ve not been this angry since Boris was forced out”, says one.

In the same group, they respond to the sacking of Ms Braverman as home secretary with dismay.

“I call on Conservative MPs to submit their VoNC [vote of no confidence] letters to the 1922 [Committee]. Rishi Sunak & his out-of-touch squad, must be outed from No10,” said one. Later that day, Tory MP Andrea Jenkyns did submit such a letter.

“Is Suella a member of the CDO?” asks one. “How can we help her and thereby help ourselves and our country? I am really unhappy about this… Let’s push for letters to go in.”

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Richard Holden’s appointment as party chairman is also the source of dismay because he is seen as close to Mr Sunak.

“Apparently an ex CCHQ staffer, otherwise known as a full commitment to the lunatics taking over the asylum,” one said.

Read the full exchanges below.

CDO SOUTH EAST

[08:39] Activist 1: Reshuffle starting now…

[08:40] Activist 1: Suella has just been sacked. The end of the Conservative party

[08:40] Activist 2: Harry Cole was reporting that it was expected because of the vague agenda for today.

[08:42] Activist 2: Let’s hope it’s the beginning of the end for Sunak

[08:4?] Activist 2: He’s now jumping to the bark of Labour

[08:45] Activist 3: If Suella has been sacked, then he should go. Is Suella a member of CDO? How can we help her and thereby help ourselves and our country? I am really unhappy about this.

[08:46] Activist 2: Now it’s time for the backbenchers to put up.

[08:46] Activist 3: Let’s push for the letters to go in.

[08:46] Activist 4: He is demonstrating he is a follower not a leader.

[08:47] Activist 2: It’s so weak. Even if he wanted to sack her he shouldn’t indulge in the left

[08:47] Activist 3: An unelected one at that. Disgraceful.

[08:47] Activist 5: Suella has been sacked – it’s on the news websites now.

[08:50] Activist 6: I call on Conservatives Mp’s to submit their VoNC letters to the 1922. Rishi Sunak & his out-of-touch squad, must be ousted from NO.10. To those few are still members, please write your Association(s). #Ready4Rishi2Go

[08:58] Activist 7: Sunak & he party is sunk. They’ve backed the wrong horse(s)

[08:59] Activist 2: Cleverly as HS

[09:00] Activist 8 : Not sure what he was thinking, she can do more damage to him on the backbenches! Thanks for that was about to write to Cleverly about a matter abroad!

CDO SOUTH WEST

[08:41] Activist 1: Suella has been sacked

[08:41] Activist 2: What an idiot!

[08:42] Activist 3: Activist Sunak got to go

[08:42] Activist 4: Well on the bright side Suella is free now to replace him when the time comes…

[08:43] Activist 5: It’s nothing like the party I joined in the 1970’s when we had a clear vision and direction. My MP doesn’t share many of my Conservative principles sadly like many of his colleagues.

[08:43] Activist 6: I think this trigger for letters to go in

[08:51] Activist 6: Tell your MP’s!

[08:54] Activist 5: Just sent an email to my MP

[08:57] Activist 6: Great yes pile on everyone

[10:13] Activist 2: There are no pliable MPs left for Sunak and his squad to call upon. What an utter clown show. What now Activist 6?

[10:15] Activist 6: Now letters must go in and Sunak replaced urgently. We could have a leadership election in 3 weeks including limited hustings and members vote.

[10:16] Activist 7: Do you think there are enough MPs with a backbone to do it though?

CDO LONDON

[07:08] Activist 1: The current Tory government

Rishi Sunak: Stabbed the one person who gave him a top job, rejected by us, done nothing in the year he’s been the cuckoo prime minister, rejected by the people according to the pills.

Hunt: Rejected by us 4 times and disliked by the people according to the polls.

Cameron: Didn’t like the result of a democracy so ran away and let down his constituency by resigning. Got caught being a naughty man.

Did I miss anything? :/

[08:42] Activist 2: He’s sacked Suella! He’s on a suicide mission for the party!

[08:43] Activist 3: Sunak has committed political suicide

That being said, I’m sure this is a positive step towards a Bravermen leadership.

[08:45] Activist 4: Time for the letters to go in! Let’s see what mess is made of reshuffle too.

[08:49] Activist 2: I’m furious.

[08:49] Activist 2: He is no Politician. He doesn’t understand that the Tory faithful are pretty much only still faithful because of Suella.

[08:52] Activist 2: I’m a party member, I’ve always voted Tory. I’m active in the local association and I am really struggling with the idea of voting for them at the next GE. Sorry, but they need a kicking.

[08:52] Activist 3: I would be furious if I wasn’t rather excited to watch Sunak’s unravelling and a (potential) leadership bid by Suella.

Rishi has signed his political death warrant, and Suella will be back – so the situation is bittersweet.

[09:50] Activist 5: This is just awful.

[09:50] Activist 5: Sunak is not even a Tory

[09:50] Activist 5: MPs: Get him out NOW!

[09:50] Activist 2: I’m so angry I can’t focus on work.

[10:13] Activist 6: I feel the same, I’m furious. Just watched the idiots on GB News saying Suella was out of control. She was the first minister in years I actually felt was a real Conservative with genuine Conservative values. I hope she runs for leadership and kicks Sunak to touch.

[10:19] Activist 2: This cabinet is pretty much the exact opposite of what we voted for in 2019.

[10:44] Activist 7: If she does and gets voted in overwhelmingly by the membership, the snakes will oust her, ignore us all and install another puppet!

[10:45] Activist 8: It’s 10:45.

What’s the delay in those letters to Sir Graham? There’s not a postal strike is there?

[10:45] Activist 9: Exactly, as we are unfortunately accustomed to.

[13:15] Activist 10: I see the ‘one nation’ tories are full of glee today.

[13:34] Activist 11: They won’t be after next year’s general election results.

[13:36] Activist 11: Although saying that, they might actually be gleeful, since they seem so hellbent on causing as much reputational damage to the party as possible.

CDO YORKSHIRE & HUMBER

[10:12] Activist 1: I can’t believe it. Suella sacked and Cameron in as foreign secretary!

[10:13] Activist 1: Is it April fools day????

[10:14] Activist 2: Incredible – has just thrown the election away! I bet Starmer sends him a crate of champagne to thank him! We need to get off our bums and write in and voice our anger.

[11:08] Activist 3: I wonder who made him sack her? Dr. No or another member of the cabal really running the country? Looks like time to quit the party for me.

[11.10] Activist 4: Stay as a member. You will have more influence in the future.

[11:10] Activist 5: It’s not our party anymore… It hasn’t been for a while.

[11:10] Activist 3: Exactly true!

[11:16] Activist 6: I’m not quitting. I want the satisfaction of being involved in rebuilding once these people have moved on. Unfortunately unless the backbenchers grow a pair we are going to have to go a few years of socialism in order to move them on .

[11:18] Activist 7: A few years? We’ll never get into power again… Votes will be opened up to 16 year olds, non-British nationals too.. We’ll then have another referendum and be back under the globalists boot. Democracy will be dead, and this party with its blatant corruption, enabled it.

[11:39] Activist 8:v I heard they’re going to change the membership vote for PM, just in case we have the audacity of not choosing the right person. It breaks my heart to say this, but the conservative party, that I’ve supported for years, is well and truly finished. A vote for this shower is a wasted vote.

[11:43] Activist 9: Will Cameron become leader?

[13:24] Activist 9: Hague orchestrated Cameron. It’s to stop a Boris or Farage come back.

[13:26] Activist 9: We need to split.

[13:38] Activist 9: Right wing members of 2 groups meeting this afternoon. Let’s see the letters but i think we need a breakaway.

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Inflation static at 3.8% as easing food prices help tame peak

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Inflation static at 3.8% as easing food prices help tame peak

The rate of inflation remained static in September, according to official figures, which could raise prospects for interest rate cuts ahead.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) had been expected by economists to reveal a figure of 4.1% – a level not seen since October 2023.

But the main consumer prices index (CPI) measure over the rolling 12-month period was held down by the first decline in food and non-alcoholic drinks prices since May last year, easing from 5.1% to 4.5%, and slowing costs for live events.

At 3.8%, however, the UK’s inflation rate remains the highest in the G7 – which is made up of the UK, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the US.

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September’s inflation figures don’t just lay bare rising cost pressures on households and businesses currently.

They are also used to determine the uplift for the state pension in April.

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Under the triple-lock mechanism, the pension payments are set to rise in line with earnings at 4.8% as the figure is running higher than the 3.8% rate of inflation and 2.5% minimum threshold.

ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner said of the big picture: “A variety of price movements meant inflation was unchanged overall in September.

“The largest upward drivers came from petrol prices and airfares, where the fall in prices eased in comparison to last year.

“These were offset by lower prices for a range of recreational and cultural purchases including live events.”

He added that the outlook for food was uncertain as factory gate price data showed rising costs.

While lower than expected, the CPI rate still remains almost double the Bank of England’s target rate of 2%.

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Reeves: UK is ‘envy of the world’

The most recent language out of the Bank’s interest rate-setters had centred on the potential for elevated inflation to postpone prospects for more interest rate cuts.

Bank rate currently stands at 4%.

But the Bank and most economists expect inflation to have peaked, barring further economic shocks.

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The big issues facing the UK economy

The contribution from energy is likely to fall sharply next month, despite a 2% rise in bills.

As such, LSEG data showed continued caution over the prospects for a November rate cut but a flurry of activity around December. Waiting will allow the Bank to see a further set of both employment and inflation figures.

Much will also depend on core and services inflation measures, also lower than expected today, continuing that trend.

These, along with pay growth rates, are crucial bits of information for the Bank to determine whether inflation is ingrained in the economy.

Private business surveys would suggest that its efforts to get inflation down may also be helped by subdued confidence in the economy ahead of the budget next month.

There are widespread fears of big tax rises ahead to fill a void, estimated at up to £30bn, in the public finances.

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Borrowing figures released on Tuesday showed government borrowing in the financial year to date £7.2bn above the level forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility.

At the same time, tax receipts were up almost 10% in September compared to the same month in 2024.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves is being urged to act in a way that does not risk fanning the flames of inflation after businesses passed on higher employment costs imposed months after her first budget.

She said of the inflation data: “I am not satisfied with these numbers. For too long, our economy has felt stuck, with people feeling like they are putting in more and getting less out.

“That needs to change. All of us in government are responsible for supporting the Bank of England in bringing inflation down. I am determined to ensure we support people struggling with higher bills and the cost of living challenges, deliver economic growth and build an economy that works for, and rewards, working people.”

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Caerphilly by-election: Will Plaid or Reform have last laugh in Tommy Cooper’s birthplace?

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Caerphilly by-election: Will Plaid or Reform have last laugh in Tommy Cooper's birthplace?

Caerphilly is famous for three Cs: coal, cheese and its mighty castle. It’s also the birthplace of the legendary comedian Tommy Cooper.

And after Thursday’s Senedd by-election, in what was once a Labour stronghold as impregnable as the castle, it’s Plaid Cymru or Reform UK that will have the last laugh.

It may not be a Westminster by-election, but this clash will have an impact on UK politics way beyond the Welsh valleys if Nigel Farage’s party triumphs.

iStock file pic
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iStock file pic

A Reform UK victory would strengthen claims that Mr Farage and his insurgents are poised to inflict massive damage on Labour and the Conservatives in elections next year and beyond.

Victory in the valleys would intensify fears among the other parties that Reform UK’s boasts about winning the next general election are not the fantasy that its opponents claim.

On a campaign visit to Caerphilly, Mr Farage – inevitably – posed for photographs in front of a 9ft tall bronze statue of Tommy Cooper, who died in 1984.

But the by-election is no laughing matter for Labour, which has seen its support in this by-election crumble like Caerphilly cheese.

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Mr Farage announcing Llyr Powell as the Reform candidate earlier this year
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Mr Farage announcing Llyr Powell as the Reform candidate earlier this year

Labour has held the Westminster seat of Caerphilly since 1918 and the Senedd seat since devolution in 1999. Ron Davies, said to be the architect of Welsh devolution, was MP from 1983 to 2001.

He was Welsh secretary under Tony Blair from 1997 until he quit over what he called a “moment of madness” in 1998 when he was mugged at knifepoint on London’s Clapham Common.

For the front-runner Reform UK, not even the conviction of its former leader in Wales, Nathan Gill, for taking pro-Russian bribes seems to have halted the march of Mr Farage’s party towards the brink of a stunning victory.

Mr Gill, who led Reform UK in Wales in 2021, admitted taking bribes to make statements in favour of Vladimir Putin’s Russia while he was a member of the European Parliament.

Questioned during a visit to Caerphilly, Mr Farage said: “Any political party can find in their midst all sorts of terrible people. Gill is particularly shocking because I knew him as a devout Christian, very clean-living, honest person. So I’m deeply shocked.”

Despite this bribery scandal, the latest opinion poll in the constituency suggested a narrow Reform UK victory, with Mr Farage’s party on 42%, Plaid Cymru on 38% and Labour languishing on a dismal 12%.

But with Labour, the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Green Party out of contention in a two-horse race, Reform UK’s candidate Llŷr Powell could be vulnerable to tactical voting for Plaid Cymru’s Lindsay Whittle.

Ron Davies, the 'architect of Welsh devolution', was MP for Caerphilly. File pic: Reuters
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Ron Davies, the ‘architect of Welsh devolution’, was MP for Caerphilly. File pic: Reuters

Turnout could be crucial. A low turnout is likely to help Plaid Cymru win. A high turnout could mean Reform’s opinion poll leads, both nationally and locally, are reliable and could hand victory to Mr Farage.

But Plaid has come second in every Senedd election in Caerphilly and Mr Whittle can’t be faulted for perseverance and dogged determination. Until now, he’s had a miserable record as a candidate, both for Westminster and the Senedd.

Aged 72, he has stood in Caerphilly in every general election since 1983, no fewer than 10 times, and in every Welsh Assembly election since it was formed in 1999 – seven times.

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Dubbed “Mr Caerphilly” by his party, he was council leader and assembly member for South Wales East between 2011 and 2016.

Interviewed by Sky News back in 2003, the year of Tony Blair’s Iraq war, he said: “People are obviously very unhappy with the health service. They’re unhappy with the way the Labour Party are drifting to the right.

“They’re unhappy with the treatment of the ex-miners and their compensation claims. They’re unhappy with the treatment of the firemen. They’re unhappy that we’ve just gone to war.”

The by-election could indicate how Labour will fare in future elections. Pic: Reuters
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The by-election could indicate how Labour will fare in future elections. Pic: Reuters

Reform UK’s Mr Powell, on the other hand, is just 30 and is relatively inexperienced as a candidate. He was a Tory candidate in local elections in Cardiff in 2022.

But he was also active in Mr Farage’s UKIP and Brexit Party and worked for the now disgraced Gill as a constituency caseworker while Gill was an MEP. He now says Mr Gill’s actions were “abhorrent” and “a betrayal”.

For Labour, despite its long dominance in Caerphilly, this campaign couldn’t have gone any worse. As well as battling against the unpopularity of both Sir Keir Starmer and the Welsh government, the council’s Labour leader, Sean Morgan, defected to Plaid Cymru during the campaign.

So, like many two-horse races, this political dash to the finishing line could be neck and neck.

Pic: PA
Image:
Pic: PA

Of Caerphilly’s three Cs, coal is long gone. The last mine, Penallta collier, closed in 1991, though there’s a proud history of coal mining.

Back in 1913, tragedy struck when the Universal Colliery in Senghenydd was the site of the UK’s worst mining accident, when 439 miners and a rescuer were killed in an explosion.

But Caerphilly could be about to make history once more, with either a massive stride forward on the road to Downing Street for Mr Farage or Labour surrendering power to the Welsh nationalists in Cardiff after more than a quarter of a century.

And, as Caerphilly’s most famous son would have said, the by-election result on Thursday night will be a pointer to politics in Wales and the whole of the UK… just like that!

The full list of candidates standing at the Caerphilly by-election

  • Labour – Richard Tunnicliffe
  • Plaid Cymru – Lindsay Whittle
  • Reform UK – Llŷr Powell
  • Conservative – Gareth Potter
  • Green Party – Gareth Hughes
  • Gwlad – Anthony Cook
  • UKIP – Roger Quilliam
  • Liberal Democrats – Steve Aicheler

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Why Keir Starmer has a people problem

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Why Keir Starmer has a people problem

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With growing signs that Britain’s top civil servant will leave Number 10 in the coming weeks – some ask, does Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer have a problem with people?

Sam and Anne discuss the potential impact of Cabinet Secretary Chris Wormald’s departure from the government machine and whether there could be more exits on the horizon.

Plus, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood warns the national inquiry into grooming gangs will leave “no hiding place” after several survivors quit the panel.

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