With US-China relations on a tightrope, Biden and Xi’s rendezvous is more important than ever
It has been a year since President Xi and President Biden last met, and it’s hard to overstate just what a rollercoaster US-China relations have been on since then.
The fact this meeting is happening at all is the result of months of delicate planning.
But for all the “tough-line”, “hard-man” images that both men try to broadcast domestically, there is a mutual recognition of one key fact: it would cost more, both politically and economically, to allow relations to spiral.
Why now?
It was just nine months ago that US-China relations hit what felt like rock bottom as the so-called Chinese spy balloon was shot down over the US, plunging their diplomacy into crisis.
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Moment ‘spy balloon’ is shot down
The vast backdrop of disagreements from Taiwan, the Indo-Pacific, the Ukraine war, tech controls and economic sanctions meant the relationship felt as precarious and as dangerous as it had in decades.
But the summer has seen a blitz of diplomatic efforts to try to repair things, with multiple meetings of officials at various levels.
Both sides know the window for progress is narrow.
Come next year, Taiwan’s presidential election will likely inflame tensions, and then the inevitable anti-China sentiment that will accompany the US election cycle will no doubt make things worse.
The time to play statesmen and to push for their interests is now!
What do they want?
Don’t be under any illusion, both Biden and Xi are coming to this table with immense amounts of scepticism about the other’s intentions.
Any meaningful breakthrough is highly unlikely.
What they both seek is a degree of what’s being called “tactical stabilisation” – a pause in deterioration that will allow each to pursue its interests in a more predictable environment.
On the US side, there is an understanding that only a meeting of the top men will unlock the Chinese system to enable cooperation on some of the “easier” issues like climate change and global health.
There is also a hope that military-to-military talks might be able to restart after being shut down following former Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s controversial visit to Taiwan last year.
From China’s perspective, a pause in deterioration gives it the space to continue to build up its economic and military strength to better compete going forward.
The visuals are also important to Xi Jinping domestically.
It has not been a brilliant year for him, with a chaotic end to his hated zero COVID policy, a faltering economy and deteriorating relations with multiple western countries. Being seen to be able to manage this crucial relationship is important to casting himself as a competent statesman.
So what will they discuss?
There are so many disagreements likely to be raised, but these are the top three on the list:
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China and US meet to ease tensions
Territorial claims and military tension
Perhaps top of the long list of issues between them is China’s increasingly assertive behaviour in contested areas that it claims as its own.
Most prominent is Taiwan, the self-governing island that China sees as a breakaway province. Xi has expressed multiple times his desire to “reunify” Taiwan, Biden has promised to defend it.
The other arena where tensions are rising is the South China Sea.
China claims the vast majority as its international waters, despite rival claims from the Philippines and others. In 2016, an international arbitral tribunal ruled overwhelmingly in favour of the Philippines.
However, in recent months there have been frequent confrontations between Chinese and Filipino vessels, and here too the US has reiterated its commitment to support the Philippines.
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Boats from China and Philippines collide
The US claims that in both areas China’s behaviour is becoming increasingly aggressive and, in some cases dangerous. It has released videos of Chinese jets flying hair-raisingly close to US ones, in one recent case, just 10ft away.
The Americans say the risk of accidents and escalation is grave.
China, for its part, says that it is US conduct that is the dangerous force. It sees American presence in these regions as blatant provocation in its backyard.
These are deeply intractable issues, the best that might be hoped for is some sort of agreement to an offramp for if things ever escalate.
Global conflicts
The two leaders will also discuss the two major ongoing global conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.
In both, they have taken a drastically different tact.
When it comes to Ukraine, China has attempted to portray itself as a neutral peacemaker, one of the only nations with the ability to talk to both sides.
The reality, though, is that Xi has made no secret of his growing closeness to Putin and has quietly been providing Russia with finance, technology and diplomatic cover.
Xi has made no secret of his growing closeness to Putin. Pic: AP
Meanwhile, in the Middle East, it has called for a ceasefire and peace, but it has stopped short of directly condemning Hamas for the 7 October atrocities and state media has taken a decidedly pro-Palestinian tone.
In both cases, China’s approach is in stark opposition to America’s, and it has criticised its rival for its full-throated support for both Israel and Ukraine and the supply of military assistance.
At root, both have an interest in the other not gaining advantage or influence off the back of the outcomes of these conflicts.
Tech and economic sanctions
There is still a raft of restrictions on technology and economic sanctions that exist between them.
Just in the last month, new ones have been announced on both sides, with China restricting US access to graphite (a crucial component in making batteries) and the US further restricting Chinese access to semiconductors.
The aim on both sides is to hinder the other’s ability to develop in key areas such as AI. But this trade war hurts them both as they remain major trading partners and the two economies are highly reliant on each other.
Xi in particular has a need to mitigate these issues.
Amidst a flagging economy, he is trying to woo foreign investment back to China and is expected to meet with US business leaders while in San Francisco.
A smooth summit might help him stave off, at least temporarily, more US restrictions and it may help shore up the confidence of some foreign businesses spooked by the imposition of state-centric restrictions and raids on a handful of China-based US businesses.
As the two most powerful countries in the world, the relationship between the United States and China is the most consequential of all bilateral ties.
Any change in interactions and behaviour by either side does not just impact security, economic activity and trade in Washington and Beijing, but also affects the rest of the planet.
President Xi Jinping chose to make this point publicly as he said hello – and presumably goodbye – to Joe Biden when the two men met on the sidelines of an economic forum in Peru in what was likely their last face-to-face sit down before the US leader hands the keys to the White House over to Donald Trump.
Joe Biden and Xi Jinping shaking hands in Peru earlier this week. Pic: Reuters
“As two major countries, China and the United States should bear in mind the interest of the whole world and inject more certainty and positive energy into the turbulent world,” Mr Xi said, speaking through a translator.
“It is my consistent belief that as the world’s most important bilateral relationship, a stable China-US relationship is critical not only to the interests of the Chinese and American peoples but also to the future and destiny of the entire humanity.”
Mr Biden, whose relationship with his opposite number does not just span his four years as president but also when he previously served as vice president under Barack Obama, also focused on the importance of dialogue.
“We haven’t always agreed, but our conversations have always been candid and always been frank,” he said, sitting at a long table, surrounded by aides, with Mr Xi opposite him.
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“I think that’s vital. These conversations prevent miscalculations, and they ensure the competition between our two countries will not veer into conflict. Be competition, not conflict.”
While clearly directed at him, it is doubtful that Mr Trump will heed the advice.
He has consistently criticised the Biden administration for being too soft on Beijing and has vowed to be much tougher – even saying he would impose 60% tariffs on Chinese imports.
The president-elect’s picks for top jobs in the White House, such as with China hawks Senator Marco Rubio as his desired secretary of state, and Representative Mike Walz as national security adviser, also point to a hardening in the US’ position on Beijing – which is on a trajectory to overtake Washington as the world’s number one superpower.
This moment of re-ordering in global dominance – something the UK was once forced to absorb when the sun set on the British Empire – is on course to happen regardless of who is in the White House.
But a more hostile and combative commander-in-chief in the White House makes it an increasingly perilous time for everyone.
It is perhaps why the current leaders in Beijing and Washington are so keen to stress that while their feelings towards one another go up and down, the ability to keep talking is critical.
Joe Biden has met with Xi Jinping for the last time as US president, where the Chinese leader said he is “ready to work” with Donald Trump.
Speaking at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Lima, Peru, Mr Biden said the US and China’s relationship should be about “competition, not conflict”.
“We haven’t always agreed, but our conversations have always been candid and always been frank,” he said.
“We’ve never kidded one another. These conversations prevent miscalculations, and they ensure the competition between our two countries will not veer into conflict.
“We’ve been level with one another. I think that’s vital.”
Their last-ever meeting comes as president-elect Donald Trump vows to introduce blanket 60% tariffs on US imports of Chinese goods as part of a series of “America First” trade measures.
Pic: Reuters
But despite Mr Trump’s proposed measures, Mr Xi said his country’s goal “of a stable, healthy and sustainable China-US relationship remains unchanged”.
“Our commitment to mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and… cooperation as principles for handling China-US relations remains unchanged,” he added.
The Chinese president then said the country is “ready to work with the new US administration to maintain communication, expand cooperation and manage differences, so as to strive for a steady transition”.
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Neither Mr Xi nor Mr Biden responded to a question about whether there were concerns about Mr Trump’s proposed tariffs.
The president-elect has also named several China hawks to his transition team, such as Senator Marco Rubio as secretary of state and Representative Mike Waltz as national security adviser.
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Under Mr Biden, Washington has introduced restrictions on US investment in Chinese artificial intelligence, quantum computing and semiconductors.
Former house speaker Nancy Pelosi also visited the island of Taiwan – which China views as a breakaway province – in April 2022.
In their meeting at this time last year – which followed a surge in tensions when an alleged Chinese spy balloon was shot down over the US – both leaders said direct communication between American and Chinese military forces would be restored.
Former heavyweight champion Mike Tyson says the health scare in June, which forced the postponement of his boxing match with Jake Paul, almost cost him his life.
“I almost died in June,” Tyson wrote on X, adding that he “had 8 blood transfusions. Lost half my blood and 25lbs in hospital”.
The 58-year-old, who lost to the YouTuber-turned-boxer in a unanimous points decision in Texas, tweeted that the situation was far worse than people had realised.
Following Tyson’s recovery, after reportedly suffering an ulcer flareup, he reflected on the result of the fight.
“This is one of those situations when you lost but still won… no regrets to get in the ring one last time,” he said.
That contrasts with Tyson’s comments after the match in which he refused to confirm whether it would be his last fight.
“It depends on the situation,” Tyson said before suggesting a fight with Paul’s older brother, Logan Paul, who was standing near him in the ring.
Critics argued that the revised match – which involved fewer and shortened rounds, as well as heavier gloves – fell short of entertaining.
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Paul beats Tyson by unanimous decision
Some claimed it appeared more like a glorified sparring session.
It was Tyson’s first sanctioned pro bout since 2005, when he lost to Kevin McBride and then went into retirement – only briefly reappearing for an exhibition match in 2020 against Roy Jones Jr.
Jake Paul believes he can fight for a championship belt within two years. Pic: AP
Paul has plenty to prove
Paul, 27, still has plenty to prove. The social media influencer wants to be a championship fighter and compete for a championship belt within two years. “I think it could happen in the next 24 months,” Paul said.
“I truly, truly believe in my skills and my ability and my power. And the cruiserweight division is seemingly open for the taking on that timeline,” he added.
The only professional match he has lost so far has been to Tommy Fury, the less-accomplished brother of former heavyweight champion Tyson Fury.
But there are questions about when Paul will fight a contender in his prime, as opposed to former champions or mixed martial artists.
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Intriguingly, in the days before his fight with Tyson, Paul mentioned super middleweight champion Canelo Alvarez, considered one of the best boxers in the world.
According to reports, the Texas bout earned Paul $40m (£31.7m) versus $20m (£15.8m) for Tyson.
Netflix said 60 million households worldwide viewed the contest on its streaming platform, and nearly 50 million tuned in to watch the undercard which saw Ireland’s Katie Taylor beat Puerto Rico’s Amanda Serrano.
Even so there were some technical glitches. More than 90,000 users reported problems on Netflix at its peak, according to the website Downdetector, which tracks outages.
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