Connect with us

Published

on

There will be a lot of positive talk from the chancellor when he delivers his autumn statement on Wednesday, but this will be a fiscal event full of illusory gains.

The government is on track to borrow less than previously forecast, which will give rise to a fantasy that Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has more space to slash taxes than he actually has.

It’s a fantasy because these gains on borrowing are largely the product of high inflation, which has bolstered tax receipts. The government hasn’t admitted it yet, but inflation will inevitably drive up spending too.

It means Hunt’s room for manoeuvre is actually limited if he wants to meet his target of getting debt falling as a proportion of gross domestic product (GDP).

Although interest rates, which have been higher than expected, will weigh on the public finances, the windfall from higher taxes bolstered by inflation and wage growth will more than offset this. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) will likely show that the government’s headroom against that target has grown from £6.5bn to around £13bn.

Jeremy Hunt will want to claim this as a victory, while also tempering expectations for tax cuts. His message will be that the public finances are improving under this government but they are in too poor a shape to allow for any tax cuts.

This is where the political infighting begins. Many MPs within his own party want him to use that headroom to cut taxes. They are perturbed by the fact that a Conservative government has overseen growth in the tax burden to its largest in the post-war era.

More on Jeremy Hunt

Among the most egregious of these tax rises is the freezing of thresholds, a stealth tax which will see taxpayers pay £40bn a year more by 2028. It has dragged millions of public sector workers, including teachers and nurses, into the higher band of tax.

Tensions over taxation have been simmering in the party and will likely flare up again because Hunt is unlikely to make any big giveaways. The government is insistent that the priority must be to bring inflation down because any tax rises could drive inflation higher. However, with the target to halve inflation now met, MPs will be asking when the tax cuts can begin.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt
Image:
Jeremy Hunt will deliver his autumn statement on Wednesday

Both Hunt and Rishi Sunak are sensitive to this and will probably throw a bone or two. Downing Street has been looking for options that are relatively inexpensive and less likely to increase inflation.

There are a number of policies under consideration, including the scrapping of inheritance tax, or a reduction in the rate from 40% to 20% on estates above £325,000. The government could also cancel a planned increase on stamp duty. Together, these policies would cost about £5.2bn. The chancellor is also expected to cancel the planned 5p increase in fuel duty from April next year, which will cost £6bn.

So, any giveaways would quickly swallow up the headroom, at a time when government spending will inevitably have to rise. Departmental budgets are set in cash terms and high inflation means that the cost of paying prison guards and running courts has gone up. Without substantial increases, public services face real-terms pay cuts.

On current plans, unprotected departments would see their spending power cut by 16% between 2022-23 and 2027-28, which would be a similar pace of cuts to those implemented by George Osborne in the early 2010s. The Resolution Foundation, a left-leaning think tank, described this scale of the cuts as a “fiscal fiction” that is “undeliverable”.

Read more:
Jeremy Hunt signals tax cuts as lower inflation means economy has ‘turned a corner’

David Cameron’s official peerage title revealed
Hunt contradicts PM on Rwanda flight take off position

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Chancellor on ‘next part of economic plan’

The opposition will be keeping a hawk eye on this and will be quick to decry any signs that the country is returning to a period of austerity. It will also be quick to attack any of the government’s tax-raising plans – and there will be a number of them.

Tax thresholds will probably remain frozen into 2029, a policy that could raise another £6bn. The Treasury will also be cracking down on benefits, uprating them in line with October’s inflation rate of 4.6% instead of September’s figure of 6.7%. That could save £2bn. A tweak to the triple lock calculation for pensions could net £600m.

So, for all the large upward revisions to the numbers coming out of the OBR, it’s a fiscal event that is unlikely to inspire. There will be some tweaks around the edges and some big talk on plans to boost economic growth.

However, the government will probably want to keep its powder dry for the budget in March. Unfortunately, that may not be enough to satisfy Tory MPs, who are hungry for tax giveaways now.

Continue Reading

Politics

Live music venues warn of ‘devastating consequences’ of budget tax changes in letter to Sir Keir Starmer

Published

on

By

Live music venues warn of 'devastating consequences' of budget tax changes in letter to Sir Keir Starmer

Tax changes announced in the budget could have “devastating, unintended consequences” on live music venues, including widespread closures and job losses, trade bodies have warned.

The bodies, representing nearly 1,000 live music venues, including grassroots sites as well as arenas such as the OVO Wembley Arena, The O2, and Co-op Live, are calling for an urgent rethink on the chancellor’s changes to the business rates system.

If not, they warn that hundreds of venues could close, ticket prices could increase, and thousands could lose their jobs across the country.

Politics latest: Ex-Olympic swimmer nominated for peerages

Business rates, which are a tax on commercial properties in England and Wales, are calculated through a complex formula of the value of the property, assessed by a government agency every three years. That is then combined with a national “multiplier” set by the Treasury, giving a final cash amount.

The chancellor declared in her budget speech that although she is removing the business rates discount for small hospitality businesses, they would benefit from “permanently lower tax rates”. The burden, she said, would instead be shifted onto large companies with big spaces, such as Amazon.

But both small and large companies have seen the assessed values of their properties shoot up, which more than wipes out any discount on the tax rate for small businesses, and will see the bills of arena spaces increase dramatically.

More on Budget 2025

In the letter, coordinated by Live, the trade bodies write that the effect of Rachel Reeves’s changes are “chilling”, saying: “Hundreds of grassroots music venues will close in the coming years as revaluations drive costs up. This will deprive communities of valuable cultural spaces and limit the UK creative sector’s potential. These venues are where artists like Ed Sheeran began their career.

“Ticket prices for consumers attending arena shows will increase as the dramatic rise in arena’s tax costs will likely trickle through to ticket prices, undermining the government’s own efforts to combat the cost of living crisis. Many of these arenas are seeing 100%+ increases in their business rates liability.

“Smaller arenas in towns and cities across the UK will teeter on the edge of closure, potentially resulting in thousands of jobs losses and hollowing out the cultural spaces that keep places thriving.”

The full letter from trade bodies to the prime minister.
Image:
The full letter from trade bodies to the prime minister.

They go on to warn that the government will “undermine its own Industrial Strategy and Creative Sector Plan which committed to reducing barriers to growth for live events”, and will also reduce spending in hotels, bars, restaurants and other high street businesses across the country.

To mitigate the impact of the tax changes, they are calling for an immediate 40% discount on business rates for live venues, in line with film studios, as well as “fundamental reform” to the system used to value commercial properties in the UK, and a “rapid inquiry” into how events spaces are valued.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Sky’s Jess Sharp explains how the budget could impact your money

In response, a Treasury spokesperson told Sky News: “With Covid support ending and valuations rising, some music venues may face higher costs – so we have stepped in to cap bills with a £4.3bn support package and by keeping corporation tax at 25% – the lowest rate in the G7.

“For the music sector, we are also relaxing temporary admission rules to cut the cost of bringing in equipment for gigs, providing 40% orchestra tax relief for live concerts, and investing up to £10m to support venues and live music.”

The warning from the live music industry comes after small retail, hospitality and leisure businesses warned of the potential for widespread closures due to the changes to the business rates system.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Sky’s political editor Beth Rigby challenged Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer on the tax rises in the budget.

Sky News reported after the budget that the increase in business rates over the next three years following vast increases in the assessed values of commercial properties has left small retail, hospitality and leisure businesses questioning whether their businesses will be viable beyond April next year.

Analysis by UK Hospitality, the trade body that represents hospitality businesses, has found that over the next three years, the average pub will pay an extra £12,900 in business rates, even with the transitional arrangements, while an average hotel will see its bill soar by £205,200.

Read more: Hospitality pleads for ‘lifeline’

A Treasury spokesperson said their cap for small businesses will see “a typical independent pub pay around £4,800 less next year than they otherwise would have”.

“This comes on top of cutting licensing costs to help more venues offer pavement drinks and al fresco dining, maintaining our cut to alcohol duty on draught pints, and capping corporation tax,” they added.

Continue Reading

Politics

Rachel Reeves acknowledges damage of ‘too many’ budget leaks

Published

on

By

Rachel Reeves acknowledges damage of 'too many' budget leaks

The Chancellor Rachel Reeves has acknowledged there were “too many leaks” in the run-up to last month’s budget.

The flow of budget content to news organisations was “very damaging”, Ms Reeves told MPs on the Treasury select committee on Wednesday.

“Leaks are unacceptable. The budget had too much speculation. There were too many leaks, and much of those leaks and speculation were inaccurate, very damaging”, she said.

Money blog: Nine-year-old set up Christmas tree business to pay for university

The cost of UK government borrowing briefly spiked after news reports that income taxes would not rise as first expected and Labour would not break its manifesto pledge.

An inquiry into the leaks from the Treasury to members of the media is to take place. But James Bowler, the Treasury’s top official, who was also giving evidence to MPs, would not say the results of it would be published.

Committee chair Dame Meg Hillier asked if the group of MPs could see the full inquiry.

More on Budget 2025

“I’d have to engage with the people in the inquiry about the views on that”, replied Mr Bowler, permanent secretary to the Treasury.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

OBR leak ‘a mistake of such gravity’

The entire contents of the budget ended up being released 40 minutes early via independent forecasters, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).

A report into this error found the OBR had uploaded documents containing their calculations of budget numbers to a link on the watchdog’s website it had mistakenly believed was inaccessible to the public.

Tax rises ruled out

The chancellor ruled out future revenue-raising measures, including applying capital gains tax to primary residences and changing the state pension triple.

Committee member and former chair Dame Harriet Baldwin had noted that the chancellor’s previous statement to the MPs when she said she would not overhaul council tax and look at road pricing, turned out to be inaccurate.

During the budget, an electric vehicle charge per mile was introduced, as was an additional council tax for those with properties worth £2m or more.

Continue Reading

Politics

Strategy responds to MSCI letter, makes case for index inclusion

Published

on

By

Strategy responds to MSCI letter, makes case for index inclusion

Strategy, the largest Bitcoin treasury company, submitted feedback to index company MSCI on Wednesday about the proposed policy change that would exclude digital asset treasury companies holding 50% or more in crypto on their balance sheets from stock market index inclusion.

Digital asset treasury companies are operating companies that can actively adjust their businesses, according to the letter, which cited Strategy’s Bitcoin-backed credit instruments as an example.

The proposed policy change would bias the MSCI against crypto as an asset class, instead of the index company acting as a neutral arbiter, the letter said.

Bitcoin Regulation, Stocks, MicroStrategy
The first page of Strategy’s letter to the MSCI pushes back against the proposed eligibility criteria change. Source: Strategy

The MSCI does not exclude other types of businesses that invest in a single asset class, including real estate investment trusts (REITs), oil companies and media portfolios, according to Strategy. The letter said:

“Many financial institutions primarily hold certain types of assets and then package and sell derivatives backed by those assets, like residential mortgage-backed securities.”

The letter also said implementing the change “undermines” US President Donald Trump’s goal of making the United States the global leader in crypto. However, critics argue that including crypto treasury companies in global indexes poses several risks.