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We’ve spent 12 weeks waiting for a genuine plot twist in the 2023 season, and Saturday it arrived in devastating fashion.

There were no upsets, of course. Throughout this season, we’ve seen the favorites hold serve again and again, as Michigan, Washington and Texas did Saturday, narrowly escaping on the road to keep playoff hopes alive, and we’ve watched Goliath slay every David to cross his path, as Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon and Alabama did this week, too.

The season to this point has been one long wait for someone at the top of the rankings to break serve. We’ve seen a few minor blips, but with just one Saturday remaining in the regular season, it’s been a little like listening to a jam band’s encore, where every time we think we’ve hit a crescendo, we double back to the same beat we’ve been hearing for the past 45 minutes and you’re thinking, “Doesn’t Dave Matthews have a family to go home to?”

But Week 12 delivered one seismic shift to the playoff picture, when Florida State QB Jordan Travis, playing the final home game of his brilliant career, went down with a gruesome leg injury.

What that means for FSU’s hopes next week against Florida, in the ACC title game against Louisville, or in the eyes of the committee remain unclear. The Seminoles won Saturday, 58-13 behind backup QB Tate Rodemaker, but the final score was little more than a footnote, because Travis’ injury looms over everything.

The common refrain among Seminoles fans has been that an undefeated Power 5 champion cannot be left out of the playoff. But that was before the Travis injury.

The problem now for FSU is not simply that it has lost its leader, the beating heart of the program, but that its neighbors in the committee’s top 10 have ceded no ground, and Travis’ leg will be as much a part of the committee’s conversations as Alabama’s resurgence or Oregon’s dominance.

Indeed, Saturday offered the committee no easy outs.

On Rocky Top, Tennessee pulled out all the stops in hopes of a win over No. 1 Georgia, putting Peyton Manning and Dolly Parton center stage. It didn’t matter. Carson Beck threw for three touchdowns, Brock Bowers had six catches in the first half alone, and the drama was non-existent. Credit to Bowers, however. For all he’s accomplished in his spectacular career to date, upstaging Dolly marks a new high-water mark.

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Dolly Parton joins Peyton Manning at Georgia-Tennessee game

Dolly Parton sings a song off her new album “Rockstar” at the Georgia vs. Tennessee game.

Michael Penix Jr. played arguably the worst game of his tenure at Washington, and it wasn’t enough to stop the Huskies’ march toward an undefeated season. Penix completed just 13 passes, but seven of them went to Rome Odunze, who accounted for 106 yards and two touchdowns.

Texas seemed intent on bumbling away its Big 12 title hopes against Iowa State. It had two touchdowns called back by penalties, fumbled at the Iowa State 9, and coughed up a 66-yard touchdown to an uncovered Easton Dean in the fourth quarter. And none of it mattered. The Longhorns won 26-16.

Michigan recorded its 1,000th all-time win while Jim Harbaugh watched from his secret underground bunker while wearing an eye patch and petting a cat (we assume).

Bo Nix threw six touchdowns before halftime for Oregon, and Alabama won easily, too, though Ty Simpson‘s early celebration of a touchdown may have caused Nick Saban’s head to melt like he’d just witnessed the opening of the arc of the covenant.

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Alabama QB drops the ball before crossing the goal line

Ty Simpson breaks free for the longest run by an Alabama QB in over 20 seasons, but drops the ball just short of the goal line.

It’s fitting, perhaps, that Iowa clinched its spot in the Big Ten title game with a 15-13 win, too, because this season has felt like 12 opportunities for fireworks at the top of the rankings that all ended in punts.

At this point, it’d be easy to feel desperate for anything that approached real drama, real chaos, a true shake-up to the status quo.

And yet, the closest thing we got Saturday was perhaps the one thing no one wanted to see.

There’s still a chance for chaos in the next two weeks, of course. History suggests we’re bound to see it eventually. And when it comes, it’ll be a bit less thrilling because one of the nation’s best players won’t be a part of it.


Jeff Brohm’s incredible homecoming

A few things folks in Louisville know without any doubt: Bourbon is delicious, horses are raised to race, and Papa John’s cinnamon pull-apart is an underrated addition to any pizza order.

Add this one to the list: Jeff Brohm knows how to coach some football.

When Scott Satterfield bolted after last season, the call among Louisville fans was loud, persistent and unwavering: Bring Brohm home. The demands for the Cardinals to hire their former quarterback and hometown hero were so ubiquitous that, during Brohm’s introductory news conference, athletic director Josh Heird all but said he’d had no choice in the matter.

On Saturday, Brohm repaid fans for that support by punching the Cardinals’ ticket to the ACC championship game, keeping the Louisville’s long shot hopes for a playoff berth alive, and, to top things off, won them a shiny bronzed pair of boots.

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Louisville clinches spot in ACC title game with win over Miami

Louisville holds on late for a 38-31 win over Miami, clinching a spot in the ACC title game.

Louisville downed Miami 38-31 on Saturday behind three touchdown passes from Jack Plummer, securing a chance to play Florida State for the ACC title. The Cardinals did it with their top two offensive weapons — Jawhar Jordan and Jamari Thrash — battling nagging injuries. Louisville won by inverting the playbook that had served them so well all season, in yet another example of Brohm’s offensive brilliance.

With Jordan limited to just nine carries, Louisville still ran for 162 yards and two touchdowns against a stout Miami front.

With Thrash held to just one catch, the Cards turned to their tight ends — a unit that had just 17 catches all season — to the tune of nine catches for 110 yards and a touchdown.

Fourteen different players had an offensive touch, including a TD grab from offensive lineman Trevonte Sylvester, and just a week after No. 4 Florida State struggled to a 27-20 win against Miami in which it mustered just 322 yards of offense, Louisville hung 38 points and 470 yards on the Canes.

The win earned Louisville possession of the Schnellenberger Trophy — a bronzed pair of the former Cards and Canes coach’s boots, given this year for the first time. They’re bound to look exceptional in the trophy case.

More importantly, the victory punched Louisville’s first ticket to the ACC’s title game, where it will face FSU with an opportunity to, at long last, make a genuine national statement.

This, of course, has been Louisville’s blessing and curse in 2023. The Cardinals won the schedule lottery, missing FSU, Clemson and North Carolina in the regular season and providing a smoother path to this point. On the other hand, the light schedule — No. 84 nationally, according to ESPN — has meant there are still ample critics who believe Louisville is a paper tiger. Add in a loss to woeful Pitt, and the Cardinals have largely played the role of playoff footnote, despite the now 10-1 record. Never mind that Louisville now has five wins over bowl-eligible Power 5 foes, matching Alabama and Florida State for the most in the country.

It’s a fool’s errand to figure out the logistics of Louisville’s playoff path at this point. There is a path, to be sure, but it’s quite fuzzy right now.

So instead, enjoy a nice victory cigar — or, in Schnellenberger’s honor, a victory pipe — to celebrate this historic win. And when the next set of playoff rankings arrives Tuesday, we can start wondering how much more history these Cardinals can write.


Down go the Dukes

Appalachian State channeled its inner Alexander Hamilton and thwarted James Madison on Saturday 26-23 in overtime, ending the Dukes’ magical 10-0 start to the season.

The Mountaineers led throughout, but JMU receiver Elijah Sarratt made a ridiculous catch at the goal line with 57 seconds to play to pull the Dukes to within two, then tied it with an even more impressive reception on a 2-point try.

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Jordan McCloud makes two clutch plays to even score for JMU

Jordan McCloud finds Elijah Sarratt for a TD, then the two connect again to convert on the two-point conversion.

The conversion sent the game to overtime, where JMU scored first, connecting on a 25-yard field goal.

App State answered, however, with a Joey Aguilar pass to Kaedin Robinson, who spun near the goal line, narrowly getting the ball into the end zone for the win.

James Madison falls to 10-1 on the season, its first loss in more than a calendar year. Several Virginia politicians, however, will be filing suit to overturn the loss in court unless the Sun Belt decides it didn’t really count.


Aggies have Freeze’s number

It began with a home loss to UMass.

This is not the way any good story begins. The amount of truly amazing things that would have to follow for the story to end well is essentially incalculable.

But that’s what makes New Mexico State‘s season so utterly, wonderfully, unbelievably thrilling. It started with a home loss to UMass, and now is unquestionably the best season the program has had in more than 60 years, and it reached its crescendo Saturday with a dominant 31-10 win over Auburn at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

The Aggies were a 25.5-point underdog Saturday. They won by three touchdowns.

The last time that happened in an FBS game was just last year. The victor in that game, too, was New Mexico State over Liberty. The losing coach, too, was Hugh Freeze.

Saturday’s win was emphatic. Diego Pavia threw for three touchdowns. The Aggies rushed for 213 yards. The defense held Auburn to just 213 yards of total offense. It’s the biggest moment for the state of New Mexico since the final season of “Better Call Saul.”

According to ESPN Stats and Information, it’s the biggest upset of an SEC team since South Alabama beat Mississippi State in 2016, but the point spread only reflects how little the general public seems to appreciate how good this New Mexico State team is. The Aggies have now won seven straight games and are 15-4 in their past 19. Jerry Kill has made his case not just as a coach of the year candidate, but arguably for a Nobel Prize. Prior to his arrival, New Mexico State’s most impactful moment in the past half-century involved having its luggage stolen off the team bus in Gainesville, Florida. Now, they’re set to play in the Conference USA championship game against Liberty. Kill has now won seven games in back-to-back years at New Mexico State. The program had won seven games in a season just twice in the prior 54 seasons.

Long story short, the takeaway from all this is simple: UMass is better than Auburn.


The rumors of Chip Kelly’s demise may have been a tad premature.

Just days after rumblings of his imminent firing, Kelly led his Bruins to an emphatic 38-20 win over USC in what may have been Caleb Williams‘ last college game.

UCLA athletics director Martin Jarmond denied the rumors that Kelly’s job was in trouble, but the win certainly helps solidify his position as the Bruins prepare for a move to the Big Ten next season.

Saturday’s loss marked the regular-season finale for USC, and with it, likely the final appearance for Williams, the reigning Heisman winner. Williams threw for 384 yards, but he was upstaged by UCLA’s Ethan Garbers, who returned from an injury to throw three TD passes against the maligned Trojans defense. USC has now allowed 34 points or more in eight straight games, the longest streak by a Power 5 defense since Kansas in 2021.

Lincoln Riley has now lost five of his past six and is 5-7 in his last 12 against Power 5 opposition. Three of those five wins have come by a combined 10 points.

In other words, the bigger story coming out of Saturday’s action isn’t where UCLA goes from here, but how the once-heralded Riley begins to rebuild USC without his superstar QB amid so many lingering questions.

For comparison, he’s now 18-8 in 26 games at USC. Lane Kiffin was 19-7 in his first 26 while dealing with NCAA sanctions.

So, perhaps Riley gets things turned around with a new defensive approach in 2024. Or perhaps USC should move one of its HR folks over to an office at the charter terminal at LAX.


Hartman scorches Wake

For five years, Sam Hartman called Wake Forest home, setting school records for touchdowns, passing yards, completions and ribs removed.

On Saturday, he faced his old team, and he showed absolutely no mercy. Hartman led Notre Dame to a 45-7 win over Wake, throwing for 277 yards and four touchdowns in the process.

In Hartman’s absence, Wake has been unable to find any success at the quarterback position. Michael Kern became the third different QB to start for the Deacons this season, completing just 11 of 20 passes for 81 yards. Wake has just two passing touchdowns in its past seven games — six of them losses.

Hartman, meanwhile, passed Graham Harrell for fourth all-time in FBS passing yards and passed Colt Brennan, Rakeem Cato and Baker Mayfield to move into sole possession of fourth in passing touchdowns. And he’s done it all in only 16 years as a college player.


Wolves run wild

In just a little more than 10 minutes of game action at the end of the third quarter and start of the fourth, Arkansas State accomplished the following:

  • Recovered a fumble and returned it for a touchdown

  • Kicked a 58-yard field goal

  • Intercepted a pass and returned it 87 yards for a touchdown

  • Intercepted another pass and returned it for a 50-yard touchdown

  • Saved Butch Jones’ job, got bowl-eligible, were awarded the 2023 champions of life trophy

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Texas State Bobcats vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves: Full Highlights

Texas State Bobcats vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves: Full Highlights

The Red Wolves whooped Texas State 77-31, scoring three times on defense, while the offense added touchdowns of 41, 42 and 57 yards.

In fact, Arkansas State ran just 57 plays in the game, meaning the Red Wolves averaged 1.35 points per play.

Arkansas State is bowl-eligible for the first time since 2019, and its six wins are more than the Red Wolves managed in their past two seasons combined.

Arkansas State is the fourth team this season to score at least 77 — joining, among others, Texas State! — but is the first to do it vs. an FBS opponent since SMU hung 77 on Houston in Week 10 of last season, and is just the 11th team to do it in the playoff era.


Michigan survives a scare

It has been a wild week in Ann Arbor. Jim Harbaugh declared Michigan to be “America’s Team,” which, honestly, is only a bit more disingenuous than the Cowboys using that moniker.

The school then abandoned its quest to absolve Harbaugh of any wrongdoing in the sign-stealing scandal, accepting the Big Ten’s three-game suspension, which began last week. An NCAA investigation continues, however, so we can expect that to be wrapped up some time around summer 2036. Then on Friday, the school fired linebackers coach Chris Partridge reportedly for obstructing the investigation and possibly destroying potential evidence.

The week concluded with Michigan surviving a scare from Maryland, defying the Terps’ late comeback and coming away with a 31-24 win.

That Michigan managed just 291 yards of offense, or that J.J. McCarthy looked frazzled at times in the pocket, or that the ground game that dominated Penn State mustered just 3.3 yards per carry all might seem like cause for concern ahead of The Game next week, but this is Michigan, and Harbaugh’s boys don’t worry about little things like offensive struggles.

After all, are we all naïve enough to assume Harbaugh spent five games this season just twiddling his thumbs while suspended? No, he spent only two of them thumb-twiddling and that was just to prove that no one on the planet could twiddle better than him. The rest of the time, he’s been secretly plotting against Ohio State, sewing a Ryan Day voodoo doll (and a nice set of mittens) and scheming up the perfect game plan to take down the Buckeyes for the third straight year.


Aggies win without Fisher

Jaylen Henderson racked up 287 yards of offense and two touchdowns to lead Texas A&M to a 38-10 win over Abilene Christian in the team’s first game after Jimbo Fisher was fired.

Moose Muhammad III might have taken a slight jab at Fisher during pregame warmups, when he appeared wearing sleeves — something he was supposedly once benched for doing under Fisher. The move apparently worked well, because he finished the game with four catches for 104 yards and a touchdown.

It was a strong start for the post-Fisher era at A&M, and if the school’s top boosters were all smart enough to wager $77 million on Abilene Christian +40.5, then pretty much all the Aggies’ problems have been solved.


Checking receipts

The bad news for Colorado? After Friday’s horrid 56-14 loss to Washington State, the Buffs’ bowl hopes are over.

The good news? Deion Sanders is going to have so many receipts after the way this season has ended, he’s going to need to buy a new wallet.

After a 3-0 start to the season that made Colorado the talk of the college football world, things have unraveled faster than an F1 race in Las Vegas, with the Buffaloes dropping seven of eight, demoting their offensive coordinator and revoking DJ Khaled’s sideline pass because he refused to jump in on the O-line for a few series in hopes of finding anyone who could keep Shedeur Sanders upright.

Perhaps the lasting lessons of this Colorado story is that you can’t build a team overnight. Or maybe it’s that you shouldn’t jump to conclusions three weeks into a season. Or maybe it’s that any truly good story requires a little steak with its sizzle. The important thing is that none of us learn any of these lessons and when Coach Prime has the Buffs at 3-0 again next season, we completely buy in all over again.


Heisman Five

It’s still too soon to suggest we have a clear-cut Heisman favorite, but Week 12 gave us a leader in the clubhouse for the 2023 Reverse Heisman, because you’ll be hard pressed to find a play this ugly that doesn’t include the term “Butt Fumble.” So, congrats to Colorado’s Gavin Kuld, who had a batted ball, a reception and an interception all on the same play. We’ll see you in — um, wherever the Reverse Heisman ceremony is held. Newark, New Jersey, we assume.

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Colorado QB catches his own pass and then throws disastrous INT

Colorado backup QB Gavin Kuld catches his own deflected pass and then throws an interception trying to make a play.

As for the guys still battling for an invite to New York …

1. LSU QB Jayden Daniels

Daniels put up 509 yards and eight touchdowns in a blowout win over Georgia State on Saturday, and frankly it’s getting to a point where, regardless of LSU’s three losses, there’s simply no argument against Daniels’ magic. It’s also worth noting that Daniels has a 91.7 Total QBR in the three games the Tigers lost.

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LSU’s Jayden Daniels dominates with 8 total TDs, 500+ yards

Jayden Daniels leads LSU to a dominant home showing with six passing touchdowns, two scores on the ground, and 509 total yards.

2. Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr.

Harrison had just three catches for 30 yards in the win over Minnesota, but he did haul in a TD for the seventh straight game. Besides, who could blame Harrison for saving his best for next week?

3. Oregon QB Bo Nix

According to the experts in Las Vegas, Nix is the favorite to take home the hardware. He did nothing to discourage that perception Saturday, utterly demolishing Arizona State Sun Devils to the tune of 404 yards and six touchdowns. Nix’s numbers are off the charts, but it’s also worth noting he’s faced just one defense ranked in the top 40 (by SP+), while Arizona State marked the seventh he’s faced from the bottom half of the rankings.

4. Washington QB Michael Penix Jr.

Penix didn’t deal well with the elements — or Oregon State‘s defense — on Saturday, but he did enough to pull out another win for Washington. He completed just 13 of 28 passes for 162 yards and two touchdowns, but he also had two critical runs to keep drives alive, including one for a score.

5. Florida State QB Jordan Travis

Odds are, this is the last week we’ll be able to have Travis here. His injury against North Alabama was gruesome, and the implications will be felt for weeks to come. But more than anything, it’s such a brutal end to one of the genuinely great college football success stories. Three years ago, Travis was on the verge of walking away from the game after being dismissed again and again by coaches. But he resurrected his career — and Florida State’s program, too. He won’t win the Heisman, and FSU’s odds of winning a national title took a big hit, too. But it’s still fair to say there won’t be many Seminoles in the program’s rich history more beloved for what he’s done on and off the field than Travis.


Quick hits

Iowa clinched a berth in the Big Ten title game in perfect Iowa fashion, edging Illinois 15-13 on a 30-yard Kaleb Johnson run with 4:43 to play. It was Iowa’s fifth win of the season in which it scored 20 points or less. No other Power 5 team has more than two. Iowa remains the Pete Davidson of College Football: Strange, endearing, riddled with issues and inexplicably successful. We’re mere weeks from Brian Ferentz dating a Kardashian.

NC State entered Saturday as the only Power 5 team with seven wins to remain unranked by the College Football Playoff committee. That should change next week.

The Wolfpack beat Virginia Tech 35-28 behind four touchdowns from Brennan Armstrong, and NC State has won eight games for the fourth straight season. The only other Power 5 teams to do that? Georgia, Alabama and Notre Dame. (Clemson can join them with one more win this season.)

Playing without a slew of starters and possibly using several random guys they found waiting for a table at Red Iguana, Utah‘s quest to cover for their injuries finally came to a screeching halt against red-hot Arizona. The Utes have fought valiantly against unyielding attrition this season, but a week after what felt like a last-stand loss to Washington, they had no answers for the Wildcats. Noah Fifita threw for 253 yards and two touchdowns, and Arizona rolled to its eight win of the season, 42-18. A win against rival Arizona State next week would get Arizona just its second nine-win campaign since 1998.

Will Howard accounted for three touchdowns as Kansas State won the Sunflower Showdown 31-27. Devin Neal had three rushing TDs for Kansas, but the loss likely dooms any hope of the Jayhawks finishing a season in the top 25 for the first time since 2007. On the other hand, Kansas basketball beat Manhattan last week, so overall the Jayhawks got a split with teams from Manhattan.

Last week, Arkansas was embarrassed on the field by Auburn 48-10 and off the field when reports emerged that players had watched “Polar Express” during halftime of the game. Obviously, head coach Sam Pittman was livid because it’s simply not appropriate to start watching Christmas movies before Thanksgiving. But Saturday, the Hogs rebounded nicely, torching FIU 44-20 behind three touchdowns from KJ Jefferson. Pittman was so pleased with the performance, he allowed a postgame viewing of “Fred Claus.”

SMU narrowly edged Memphis 38-34 behind three touchdowns from QB Preston Stone, including this 43-yard bomb on fourth down in the first quarter.

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Preston Stone throws 43-yard touchdown pass vs. Memphis

Preston Stone throws 43-yard touchdown pass vs. Memphis

LJ Johnson Jr. added 115 yards and a touchdown on the ground, and the Mustangs move to 7-0 in conference play. A win next week against Navy would assure SMU a trip to the AAC title game in its final season in the conference.

The Mustangs will play either Tulane or UTSA, both of whom won in Week 12 and remain undefeated in the league. The two face off in the regular-season finale next week.

Northwestern is officially bowl eligible after topping Purdue 23-15. The win follows the announcement earlier this week that David Braun would have the interim tag removed from his title (a process that involves a lot of Wite-Out and some of those Mr. Clean magic erasers) and become the team’s full-time head coach. The six wins are two more than Northwestern had in Pat Fitzgerald’s final two seasons there, and the latest results marked the school’s first back-to-back wins since November 2020.

Penn State parted ways with offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich after last week’s frustrating loss to Michigan, but the team paid a proper tribute Saturday by throwing for just 88 yards in a 27-6 win over Rutgers. Fun fact: There have been 13 wins by Power 5 teams this season when throwing for 90 yards or less. Seven of them are from Big Ten teams. It’s no wonder the league is getting more than $1 billion a year.


Under-the-radar play of the week

Last week, Wofford escaped winless The Citadel to earn its first win of the season. Saturday, it got win No. 2 in much more impressive style.

The Terriers handed 9-1 Furman its first conference loss, 19-13, thanks in large part to a 64-yard fumble return by Maximus Pulley.

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Wofford’s scoop-and-score TD highlights upset win over Furman

Maximus Pulley returns a fumble 64 yards to the house for Wofford in a win over FCS No. 2 Furman

It was a big moment for Pulley, who we assume, based on his name, had not enjoyed that type of success since winning the 1994 World’s Strongest Man competition.


Under-the-radar game of the week

Week 12 had five bowl bowls — i.e. games in which the winner earned bowl eligibility — and none was more entertaining than Texas Tech‘s 24-23 win over UCF.

The Red Raiders fell behind 14-0, roared back to take a 24-17 lead, then saw John Rhys Plumlee hit Javon Baker for a 71-yard touchdown that might’ve tied it up, if not for a missed PAT.

But the game was sealed by Texas Tech’s offense, which ran the final 5:30 off the clock on an 11-play drive in which just one snap went for more than seven yards.

The Red Raiders are now bowl eligible alongside South Alabama (who beat Marshall 28-0), Georgia Tech (who beat Syracuse 31-22) and Boise State (who beat Utah State 45-10).

Wisconsin also is bowl eligible in Luke Fickell’s first season with the Badgers, while Matt Rhule will need an upset over Iowa next week to get to six wins in his first year at Nebraska, after falling 24-17 in overtime Saturday. The Huskers have lost their past three, all by one possession. Nebraska is now 7-24 in one-possession games since 2019.

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2025 MLB Home Run Derby: The field is set! Who is the slugger to beat?

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2025 MLB Home Run Derby: The field is set! Who is the slugger to beat?

The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.

Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.

On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.

With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.

Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more


2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet

Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.

Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.


2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet

Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.

Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.


2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet

Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.

Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.


2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet

Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.

Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.


2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet

Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.

Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.


2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet

Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.

Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.


2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet

Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.

Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.


2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet

Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.

Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.

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Reds’ Fraley to play through partially torn labrum

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Reds' Fraley to play through partially torn labrum

CINCINNATI — Cincinnati Reds right fielder Jake Fraley was activated from the 10-day injured list on Saturday.

He had injured his right shoulder while trying to make a diving catch June 23 against the New York Yankees.

An MRI revealed a partially torn labrum that will eventually require surgery. Fraley received a cortisone shot and will try to play through it for the rest of the season.

The Reds were 7-4 in his absence.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand, who hasn’t played since Noelvi Marte returned from the IL on July 4, was optioned to Triple-A Louisville.

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Royals P Lorenzen (illness) scratched from start

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Royals P Lorenzen (illness) scratched from start

Kansas City Royals right-hander Michael Lorenzen was scratched from Saturday’s start due to an illness.

Left-hander Angel Zerpa replaced Lorenzen for the game against the visiting New York Mets.

Lorenzen, 33, is 5-8 with a 4.61 ERA through 18 starts this season.

Zerpa, 25, is 3-1 with a 3.89 ERA in 40 appearances out of the bullpen this season. His last start was in August 2023.

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