The world may be on track for tripling renewables – and that’s what we need
Governments plan to double renewable capacity by 2030, and tripling is within sight, according to a newly released report.
Many countries are already on track to exceed their national targets, and more ambition is achievable to bring a tripling of global renewables within reach, according to an analysis of national targets by energy think tank Ember.
The report analyzes renewables targets for 57 countries, plus the EU, that collectively represent 90% of global power sector emissions. According to these targets, global renewable capacity will reach an estimated 7.3 terawatts (TW) in 2030, more than doubling from 3.4 TW in 2022. More than 75% of renewable capacity in 2030, where stated, will be from solar and wind.
However, the current renewables boom is already outpacing governments’ planned growth. The world could achieve a doubling just by continuing the deployment achieved in 2023 throughout the rest of the decade – yet all signs point to a more rapid growth curve.
If the countries analyzed by Ember continue the growth rate of 17% achieved since 2016 throughout the rest of this decade, it would put the world on track for a tripling of renewables.
The renewables revolution
This year was another record year for renewables, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasting 500 gigawatts (GW) of additions in 2023, up 71% from 2022. More solar was installed in 2023 than the US’s entire renewable capacity. This was enabled by an even faster increase in the manufacturing capacity of solar panels, which doubled in just two years and is expected to exceed 1,000 GW in 2024.
Ember found that current national targets don’t account for this recent acceleration of renewables. Twenty-two countries already have enough renewable energy projects in development to exceed their 2030 target, and a further 12 countries are already building renewables faster than required to meet their 2030 target. That includes Brazil, which is set to install almost three times more renewable capacity in 2023 than it aims to build each year until 2030.
“The targets of today are already outdated and should be updated,” said Ember’s global analyst Dr Katye Altieri. “Governments have yet to understand the revolution that’s under way with renewables. As we approach COP28, leaders should be confident in supporting a global goal to triple renewables; it is looking more possible than ever to achieve.”
How to triple renewable capacity
Building on evidence from the IEA and IRENA, the COP28 president has called for a global agreement to triple renewable capacity by 2030. Ember’s analysts have identified a gap of 3.7 TW between collective national targets and a global tripling (11 TW) that must be made up through accelerated deployment and increased ambition.
Some countries have ambitious targets in place: 10 countries, including India, already aim to triple their renewable capacity. Twelve countries have wind and solar share targets that exceed the global goal of 40% by 2030, including the US – the world’s second-largest emitter. A further 20 countries plan to shift more than 20% of their electricity mix from fossil fuels to renewables by 2030, including South Africa.
However, the report highlights particular countries that must step up their targets, including Australia, Japan, South Korea, and the United Arab Emirates, which are already on track to exceed their targets and are among the world’s highest power sector emitters per capita.
“Tripling renewable capacity worldwide is the single biggest action required this decade for the climate,” continued Altieri. “This goal is within sight if governments set targets that reflect the current pace of change and roll out robust new policies to supercharge the building of solar and wind power.”
Electrek’s Take
To put it succinctly, Ember’s report is basically saying, “Knuckle down, world, you can do this.” And the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) today drove home – once again – why the transition to fossil fuels must be undertaken urgently.
UNEP’s “Emissions Gap Report 2023,” released today, finds that current pledges under the Paris Agreement put the world on track for a 2.5-2.9C temperature rise above pre-industrial levels this century – and thus the urgent need for increased climate action.
I’m amused (I like black humor) by the double entendre title of this year’s report – “Broken Record.” It refers to 2023’s record-breaking temperatures and weather events. It also refers to UNEP saying the same thing over and over again, yet governments aren’t responding quickly enough.
UNEP states in its executive summary that the world needs to cut 2030 emissions by 28% to get on a least-cost pathway for the 2C goal of the Paris Agreement, and 42% for the 1.5C goal. But it overcompliance:
Over-complying with current [Nationally Determined Contribution] targets for 2030 will enable countries to put forward more ambitious mitigation targets for 2035 in their next NDCs, and it will make the realization of such ambitious targets for 2035 more feasible.
Ember just proved that tripling renewables capacity can be done. The findings in UNEP’s report proves that it must be done.
Read more: For the first time ever, the IEA predicts that global emissions will peak by 2025
Photo: First Solar, a NREL research by U.S. Department of Energy is licensed under CC-CC0 1.0; Charts: Ember
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The Canadian home improvement chain picked up a pair of Volvo VNR Electric semi trucks, and it’s putting them to work on last-mile delivery routes in the Greater Toronto Area.
This month, the Canadian home improvement retailer Home Hardware began operating two Volvo electric semi trucks out of its St. Jacobs, Ontario truck depot. The pair of trucks will fulfill last-mile deliveries throughout the area, and mark the company’s first step towards transitioning its entire fleet to zero-emission vehicles.
The Volvo VNR trucks have an operating range of 442 km (about 275 miles). Their delivery routes will take them from Home-brand stores within a 100-150 km (about 90 miles) radius of the St. Jacobs distribution centre.
“We are proud to introduce our new battery-electric trucks to our privately-owned fleet,” said Kevin Macnab, president and chief executive officer, Home Hardware Stores Ltd. “Recognized by the Private Motor Truck Council as Safest Large Fleet, as well as Trucking HR Canada as a Top Fleet Employer and a Fleet of Distinction, Home Hardware Stores, Ltd. is committed to forward-thinking logistics that evolve our supply chain to best support our dealers so they can serve their communities.”
Home Hardware debuted their new Volvo VNR Electric trucks at the company’s 60th anniversary celebration and annual franchise event, the Home Hardware Homecoming, held last week in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Electrek’s Take
Home Hardware is the latest in a growing list of companies – and they’re already adding to the tally of tens of millions of all-electric, zero emission miles driven by Volvo customers. By the time Volvo rolls out its next-generation VNL and FH electric semis next year, it will be the company’s third generation of Class 8 EVs, and it will be backed by more than 100,000,000 miles of real-world data collected by thousands of trucks across dozens of companies.
Is that an insurmountable head start for companies like Tesla to make up? It’s hard to know (and my brain is broken, anyway), but I invite you to check out this episode of Quick Charge recorded a few weeks ago (below) talking about Volvo Truck’s lead, and then share your take on the state of the electric semi truck market in the comments.
Quick Charge
SOURCE | IMAGES: Volvo Trucks.
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The newest edition to the CAA-Quebec roadside fleet is a fully electric Lion5 flatbed – and the CAA says it’s the first 100% electrique tow truck in service in North America!
Based on the Lion5 medium-duty truck and upfit with a flat bed body developed by XpaK Industries, CAA-Quebec (think AAA, but in Quebec) is marking an important milestone in its 80-history with the deployment of the first electric tow truck in Canada.
“Roadside assistance has always been in CAA-Quebec’s DNA, and it goes without saying that we are taking the lead in electric towing. We have a responsibility to set an example and take a leadership role in protecting the environment,” said Marie-Soleil Tremblay, president and CEO.
As far as the truck itself goes, the Lion5 chassis is packed with 210 kWh of in-house, 800V battery packs. Those are good for a range of up to 310 km (a touch over 190 miles) courtesy of an energy-efficient, high-torque electric motor putting 315 hp that Lion Electric claims can eliminate between 75 and 100 metric tons of greenhouse gas per year compared to a comparable diesel truck.
What’s more, the Lion5-based tow truck promises to reduce CAA-Quebec’s energy (read: fuel) costs by about 80%, and regular maintenance costs by about 60% compared to gas or diesel vehicles in the same class.
“With this new 100% electric, made-in-Quebec tow truck, we are helping to redefine the future of the towing industry,” said Patrick Gervais, VP Trucks and Public Affairs at Lion. “We are proud to be part of a cleaner and more sustainable future with players like CAA-Quebec and XpaK.”
The Lion5 tow truck was delivered in July, and will spend a year being put through its paces in a multitude of towing situations and extreme weather conditions. CAA-Quebec’s roadside assistance service will share its experience with partners throughout Canada and the AAA in the US.
Electrek’s Take
“Electrek’s Take” is where we put our industry experience to use interpreting the news we report. Here, in an article about a “first ever” new commercial segment being entered by a highly visible EV, I probably should be talking about operating costs, “dollars and sense,” and the importance of stabilized costs for a fleet manager’s projections.
Instead, I’m just going to picture some bro-dude’s lifted 4×4 Ram pickup getting hauled out of a parking spot he’s ICE’d and giggle a bit. You try it, too, and let me know if it made you smile in the comments section.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Lion Electric, via TowCanada.
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Best known in the US as the OEM behind Nikola, Italian truck brand IVECO entered the 2.5 to 3.5 ton medium duty commercial van segment at this week’s IAA Transportation conference with this: the eMoovy electric chassis cab.
Co-developed with Hyundai and riding on a modified platform of the Korean brand’s Staria ST1 van, the IVECO eMoovy is entering a red-hot commercial EV space with a 215 hp electric motor and either a 63 kWh or 76 kWh battery good for up to 199 miles of range.
The IVECO version leverages the Hyundai’s excellent 800V architecture. That means the eMoovy supports ultra-fast 350 kW charging and V2x functionality, so it can be used to back up a job site, supply power to workers, or even power a home (presumably).
A long time coming
We’ve known than a commercialized IVECO version of the Hyundai van (which isn’t sold as an EV, that I’m aware of) has been in the works for some time. In fact, Peter Johnson wrote about the 2022 deal way back in February.
In that article, Peter wrote that, while Hyundai would develop and build the chassis, IVECO would customize the electric vans to suit broader commercial markets and distribute the vehicles throughout its network. If that sounds familiar, that’s because (on the surface, at least) the deal seems pretty similar to the one IVECO has with Nikola … which begs the question: will Nikola get an eMoovy variant to sell in the US?
The new electric van will directly target Ford E-Transit customers in Europe, so there’s no reason to believe it won’t be an attractive alternative for commercial fleets on this side of the pond, as well – especially with the “big rig” street cred that could come with the Nikola association.
Electrek’s Take
The commercial EV market is driven by dollars and cents. If EVs have a lower total cost of ownership (TCO) than their gas or diesel counterparts? They’ll continue to sell, and their market share will continue to grow. The only question Hyundai and IVECO need to answer is whether North American truck buyers be more likely to buy a Hyundai-branded van, or a Nikola one.
We asked a similar question to Kia’s James Bell on Quick Charge a few weeks back. Listen to his response to those questions, below, then share your thoughts in the comments section at the bottom of the page.
Kia’s James Bell on Electrek Quick Charge
SOURCE | IMAGES: IVECO, CarScoops.
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