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Public sector borrowing reached the second highest level for any October since records began, according to official figures, casting doubt on the prime minister’s pledge to cut debt and the chancellor’s capacity to cut taxes.

Public sector net borrowing was £14.9bn last month, £4.4bn more than the same point last year and the second highest since monthly records began in 1993, the Office for National Statistic (ONS) said.

Only once before, in the pandemic year of 2020, was a higher amount borrowed in October.

High borrowing costs, thanks to high interest rates and bond yields having neared a 15-year high, are part of the reason.

The interest payable was the highest on record for any October since such figures began being collated by the ONS.

Interest payments were £1.1bn more expensive than October last year, reaching £7.5bn. It is an even greater amount than the Office of Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) forecast of £4.9bn.

One of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s five promises is to reduce government debt, which arises when the state spends more money than it takes in from taxes.

Across the seven months to October 2023 debt was up £21.9bn compared with the same seven months in 2022, totalling £98.3bn.

But the sum was £16.9bn less than the £115.2bn forecast by the OBR in March.

The ONS data is the last set before the mini-budget speech to be delivered by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt in the Commons on Wednesday.

He had signalled months ago that the prospects for a series of giveaways was not in his immediate plans, despite pressure from Tory MPs for sweeteners to bolster the party’s fortunes in the polls.

However, the tune from Downing Street has changed significantly over the past few days, with Mr Sunak saying on Monday it was time for the government to “begin the next phase” of its plan and “turn our attention to cutting tax”.

It is believed some personal taxes could be cut to help boost growth and help working families with the cost of living.

At the weekend Mr Hunt also pledged to “remove the barriers that stop businesses growing”.

The chancellor had told Sky News in October that OBR’s new economic forecasts, to be revealed alongside the autumn statement, would be considerably worse than at the time of the spring budget.

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Chancellor: ‘Tax burden is too high’

Efforts to cut benefit bills and get 1.1 million classed as economically inactive into employment were revealed on Thursday last week as part of the chancellor’s Back to Work Plan.

It was the first pre-announcement of the autumn statement.

The run-up to a major fiscal event is often littered with such things – and leaks.

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Labour’s plans for the economy

Mr Hunt is facing a clamour of demands for aid – not least from charities which warn that millions of families need additional support to get them through another tough winter for household budgets.

Inflation figures last week may have shown that the pace of price increases has more than halved this year, meeting the government’s target, but bills for energy remain £1,000 above pre-pandemic levels and other essentials such as food are still rising in double-digits.

Key announcements are due on Wednesday over the government’s commitment to the pensions triple lock and whether working age benefits will rise in line with September’s inflation figure.

Read more:
Autumn statement 2023: What time is it and what could be announced?

Business aid may come in the form of tax relief.

A coalition of hospitality businesses called on the chancellor last week to freeze business rates and extend reliefs.

They argued that a fresh tax burden would force up costs and spark a flood of closures.

In response to Tuesday’s figures, Mr Hunt said: “We met our pledge to halve inflation, but we must keep on supporting the Bank of England to drive inflation down to 2%. That means being responsible with the nation’s finances.

“At my autumn statement tomorrow, I will focus on how we boost business investment and get people back into work to deliver the growth our country needs.”

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Former FTX executive Ryan Salame’s prison sentence reduced by 1 year

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Bureau of Prison records indicate that former Alameda Research CEO Caroline Ellison’s sentence was also reduced by three months.

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Reform UK overtakes Conservative membership – Nigel Farage calls it ‘historic’, Kemi Badenoch says numbers are ‘fake’

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Reform UK overtakes Conservative membership - Nigel Farage calls it 'historic', Kemi Badenoch says numbers are 'fake'

Reform UK now has more members than the Conservative Party and is “the real opposition” according to Nigel Farage, while Kemi Badenoch has called his numbers “fake”.

According to a digital counter on the party’s website, Reform UK had gone past 131,690 members – the amount the Conservative Party declared before its leadership election in the autumn – just before midday on Boxing Day.

Mr Farage, party leader and MP for Clacton-on-Sea, hailed the “historic moment” and said on X: “The youngest political party in British politics has just overtaken the oldest political party in the world. Reform UK are now the real opposition.”

But Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch accused the party of issuing misleading figures: “Manipulating your own supporters at Xmas eh, Nigel?. It’s not real. It’s a fake… [the website has been] coded to tick up automatically.”

Posting on X, she added that the Tories had “gained thousands of new members since the leadership election”.

Reform UK also shared a video of the membership tracker being projected on to the Conservative Party headquarters in London overnight.

Zia Yusuf, party chairman, also said “history has been made today” and that the Tories’ “centuries-long stranglehold on the centre-right of British politics” has “finally been broken”.

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Mr Farage hit back at Ms Badenoch, who strongly contested Reform UK’s figures. He claimed to have proof and posted a screenshot of an online register reportedly showing ‘active memberships’.

“We understand you are bitter, upset and angry that we are now the second biggest party in British politics, and that the Conservative brand is dying under your leadership. However, this not an excuse to accuse us of committing fraud,” he wrote on X.

Mr Yusuf added to the debate by appearing to goad Ms Badenoch about an audit: “We will gladly invite a Big 4 audit firm to verify our membership numbers on the basis that you do the same.”

Read more on Reform:
Is Reform UK winning the ‘bro vote’?
Farage meets Musk amid possible £78m donation

Nigel Farage attends the Old Surrey, Burstow and West Kent Hunt in Chiddingstone.
Pic: Reuters
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Nigel Farage said Reform UK is ‘now the real opposition’ after the ‘historic moment’. Pic: Reuters

The Conservative party membership figure – shared after Kemi Badenoch was announced as the new leader on 2 November – was the lowest on record and a drop from the 2022 leadership contest, when there were around 172,000 members.

In response, a Conservative Party spokesman said: “Reform has delivered a Labour Government that has cruelly cut winter fuel payments for 10 million pensioners, put the future of family farming and food security at risk, and launched a devastating raid on jobs which will leave working people paying the price.

“A vote for Reform this coming May is a vote for a Labour council – only the Conservatives can stop this.”

According to research from the House of Commons Library, there is no uniformly recognised definition of party membership and no established method or body to monitor the number of members each political group has.

Reform UK was also originally set up as a limited company, but Mr Farage said he would change the party’s structure to be member-owned in September.

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It comes after Mr Farage offered to help Lord Mandelson, the new ambassador to the US, negotiate with president-elect Donald Trump’s incoming administration.

A long-time associate of Mr Trump, he has been seen at several Republican events during and after the presidential election.

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