Truce is an inflection point in Gaza conflict – but could Hamas be on the verge of gaining the initiative?
The temporary truce between Israel and Hamas is an inflection point in the Gaza conflict.
Although Hamas is no match militarily for the Israel Defence Forces (IDF), is it on the verge of gaining the initiative?
Hostage negotiations appear to have borne fruit. The truce could see the release of 10 Israeli hostages a day, subject to agreement.
Since the release of hostages was stated as a core objective of Israel, at face value this is a positive step for the IDF campaign.
The Israeli military operation to destroy Hamas and liberate hostages is ongoing, but despite more than 13,000 Palestinian deaths and a growing humanitarian crisis, those objectives have yet to be achieved.
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Moment Hamas transfer hostages
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The children released by Hamas
However, despite the public rhetoric, Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu will have known that the primary reason Hamas seized hostages in the first place was to enable them – at some stage – to seize the initiative.
Therefore, despite growing domestic and international concern over the fate of the hostages, Netanyahu knew he had a diminishing window of opportunity to “solve the Hamas problem” – his primary objective – and his military has responded accordingly with a high-intensity kinetic air and ground offensive.
In addition to Israeli citizens and soldiers, Hamas also seized several foreign nationals as hostages, including a number of US citizens.
As Israel’s primary ally, the US has been applying intense pressure to secure their release and a month ago two US hostages were the first captives released by Hamas.
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A gate at the Rafah border opening during hostages release
This symbolic act demonstrated that the fate of hostages was negotiable and as the Israeli military offensive failed to liberate hostages, pressure has been mounting on Netanyahu to negotiate with Hamas.
Although both Hamas and Israel want to see the hostage release process proceed, they have very different motivations.
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Israel knows that every day of a truce will be exploited by Hamas to focus attention on the plight of the Palestinians in Gaza, the humanitarian crisis and the devastation that probably still conceals more bodies, making it more and more difficult for Netanyahu to re-start the military operation.
Hamas know they only have to avoid “destruction” and retain a handful of hostages, and Israel will have been denied the victory they seek.
Israeli military vehicles after leaving Gaza due to the temporary truce
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‘We will not relent until hostages released’
After 50 hostages are released there is the potential for 10 further hostages to be released each day if the truce can be extended.
This will be very difficult for Israel to resist, particularly given the emotional torment facing the families of those yet to be released.
Although Netanyahu has made clear the war will continue for “one to two months” after the truce has concluded, the second phase of the IDF operation is expected to be focused on southern Gaza.
Even Israeli officials admit this will involve far more casualties – both military and civilian – than phase one in the north.
Hamas will retain some hostages, it will not have been destroyed, and military action might yet fail to deliver.
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Meanwhile, the widespread sympathy for Israel’s plight immediately following the Hamas atrocities is fast being eroded.
The release of hostages provides a unique opportunity for both sides to draw breath and review next steps.
There remains no credible military solution to the political issues, so perhaps this temporary truce provides a rare opportunity to explore alternative options.
As the first light breaks across a quiet beach near Dunkirk, a human tide begins to move.
Dozens of migrants, many with children, rush across the sand toward the water’s edge.
French police are present, but they do not intervene.
For many of these men, women, and children, this moment marks the final chapter of a journey that began months ago, fleeing war, persecution, and economic collapse in countries as far afield as Iran, Eritrea, and Sudan.
Now, they face the potentially deadly crossing to the UK in a flimsy inflatable boat.
We watched as one vessel emerged from an inland waterway already crowded with people.
The vessel is soon dangerously overloaded.
Floating haphazardly, a baby is yanked onto the boat, as they yell out for more people to climb aboard.
Despite the dinghy taking on water – scooped out with a shoe – the crossing continues.
On the shore, police officers stood by, watching.
When I asked why no attempt was made to intervene, one officer said: “It’s for their safety.
“There are children there. We’re not going to throw grenades at them. It’s inhumane. But it’s sad.”
French police protocol, along with international law, makes such interventions legally and morally complex once boats are afloat – especially when families are involved.
Despite millions spent by the UK government to curb these crossings, the numbers continue to rise.
As of the latest count, almost 15,000 people have already made the perilous journey across the Channel this year. Many more are expected this summer as the weather window widens.
In the makeshift camps near Dunkirk, migrants wait their turn for the smugglers to signal that conditions are right.
Ali Reza told us he fled Iran after converting to Christianity. He dreams of reaching Britain, where he hopes to claim asylum.
He said: “Britain is good and accepts refugees. It has good behaviour for refugees.
“I think I’ll get a good welcome. Many Iranian people go to Britain. There’s good behaviour.”
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Back on the beach, not everyone manages to get aboard. The boat taxi service is in high demand.
Among the group, a woman from Eritrea spoke with me briefly.
Although she missed today’s crossing, she vowed to try again later in the week.
At least 25 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli gunfire at a US-backed humanitarian aid site in Gaza, according to health officials.
Medical officials at Shifa and al Quds hospitals say the people were killed as they approached the site – operated by the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF).
Dozens more were injured at the scene close to the former settlement of Netzarim, near Gaza City, medical officials from the Hamas-run territory added.
It comes just a day after Gaza health officials said 17 people were killed close to another GHF site in Rafah, southern Gaza.
Health officials said at least another six people were killed by Israeli gunfire as they approached a GHF site in Rafah on Wednesday.
Ten other people were also killed on Wednesday by Israeli strikes in Khan Younis, in southern Gaza, according to officials.
The Israeli military said its forces fired warning shots towards suspects who were advancing and which it claimed posed a threat to the troops in the area of Netzarim.
“This is despite warnings that the area is an active combat zone. The IDF is aware of reports regarding individuals injured. The details are under review,” it added.
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A total of 163 people have been killed and more than 1,000 wounded trying to reach the handful of aid sites operated by the GHF since it began work two weeks ago after a three-month blockade, according to the Hamas-run Gaza health ministry.
It comes as the US ambassador to Israel said he does not think an independent Palestinian state remains a foreign policy for the Trump administration.
Mike Huckabee’s comments to Bloomberg News prompted the White House to say he spoke for himself.
When asked if a Palestinian state remains a US goal, Mr Huckabee said: “I don’t think so.”
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The deadly road to reach aid in Gaza
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Asked about Mr Huckabee’s comments, the White House referred to remarks earlier this year by Donald Trump when he pledged an American takeover of Gaza – a proposal which was condemned globally.
Rights groups, Arab states, Palestinians and the UN said such a move amounted to “ethnic cleansing”.
A farewell letter and video have been discovered at the home of a 21-year-old gunman who killed 10 people in a school shooting in Austria, as the nation observed a minute’s silence on Wednesday.
The country paused at 10am local time (9am UK time), marking the moment of the attack a day earlier at the BORG Dreierschützengasse high school in the southeastern city of Graz.
A teacher and nine students were killed – six girls and three boys aged between 14 and 17. Another 11 people were wounded.
People lit candles in honour of the victims on Wednesday. Pic: Reuters
Medics gathered at the site of the shooting on Wednesday. Pic: Reuters
Hundreds of people gathered for the silence in the central square of Austria‘s second-biggest city, some also lighting candles in memory of those killed, others hugged each other, as they tried to come to terms with the tragedy.
In the capital Vienna, trams, subway trains and buses also stopped for a minute.
Hundreds of people joined Austrian officials at a service on Tuesday evening in Graz cathedral.
Candles were lit as people gathered in Graz’s main square on Tuesday night. Pic: AP
Police said the gunman, who took his own life, was a former student at the school who had not completed his studies.
But they added they do not yet know what his motive was.
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What we know about Austria shooting
The unnamed man used two weapons in the attack, a shotgun and a pistol, which he owned legally.
On Wednesday, officers searched the home where he lived with his mother near Graz and found a pipe bomb, which was not operational, along with abandoned plans for a bombing.
Officers secured the scene after the shooting on Tuesday in Graz. Pic: Reuters
Paramedics were called to the scene on Tuesday. Pic: AP
Franz Ruf, public security director at Austria’s interior ministry, told TV network ORF about the messages which officers discovered.
“A farewell letter in analog and digital form was found. He says goodbye to his parents. But no motive can be inferred from the farewell letter, and that is a matter for further investigations,” Mr Ruf said.
He added that the wounded people were found on various levels of the school and in the front of the building, but would not speculate on whether they were specifically targeted by the gunman.
Graz, where the attack happened, is Austria’s second-largest city
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Among those in the square on Wednesday was Chiara Komlenic, 28, who said she always felt safe when she attended the school.
“I made lifelong friendships there. It just hurts to see that young girls and boys will never come back, that they experienced the worst day of their lives where I had the best time of my life… it just hurts a lot,” she said.
On Wednesday morning, local health officials said that those injured were aged between 15 and 26 and were in a stable condition.
Nine were still in intensive care units, two of whom needed further operations. Another two had been moved to regular wards.
Austria has declared three days of national mourning following what appears to be the deadliest attack in its post-Second World War history.
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