James Cleverly will announce he is still reviewing measures to reduce legal migration on Monday, as the government fights to convince its own backbenchers it can exercise control over UK borders.
Next month Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will then set out the results of the review alongside details of the new treaty with Rwanda and emergency legislation to enable migrants to be sent to Rwanda for processing, amid a growing split inside the Conservative Party over the way forward on migration.
The new home secretary will on Monday concede that Britain has not yet reasserted control of who is coming into the country in front of MPs, in his first Commons appearance since the ONS revealed more than a million people have net arrived in the UK in the last two years, according to the Politics at Jack and Sam’s podcast by Sky News and Politico.
In the most important moment since becoming home secretary, Mr Cleverly is likely to say that legal migration must be brought down and that illegal migration should be zero.
He will nod to the range of options that the government will suggest to curb legal migration, from banning workers from bringing dependants, or restricting them to one relative, increasing the minimum salary threshold for skilled workers and a cap on overall care worker numbers.
He will emphasise that the existing plan to stop students bringing dependants which are about to be implemented could also make a big difference.
However he is likely to face challenges from MPs concerned at his emphasis that the Rwanda policy is not a “silver bullet” and his resistance to the idea that leaving the European Convention of Human Rights (ECHR) might ultimately make the decisive difference to stopping small boats crossing the channel.
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In the coming days, Sunak and Cleverly must make one of the most critical decisions of this government’s time in office over how draconian to be in emergency legislation to force through Rwanda.
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2:57
UK migration: What the numbers tell us
There is huge pressure from the Tory right to pass a law saying that the ECHR and other human rights legislation does not apply to the Rwanda policy, while there is concern in government that even doing this will anger those allies in the international community who need to strike returns deals.
For details of this dilemma, and the other ways post-Brexit Britain is seeking to establish itself on the world stage, listen to Politics at Jack and Sam’s above or download it wherever you get your podcasts.
Rishi Sunak will argue that Britain is safer under the Conservatives against the backdrop of two escalating conflicts likely to dominate the week.
In the last few days, the prime minister has broken with US President Joe Biden by insisting the UK should continue to supply arms to Israel.
It comes as Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu appears poised to mount another massive military operation in the southern Gaza town of Rafah against warnings from the US and UK.
Meanwhile, there are fears in Whitehall that Russia could mount an operation on Kharkiv by the end of the week to retake Ukraine‘s second-largest city.
Both operations could trigger wider repercussions.
Amid this worsening global outlook, the Conservatives want to highlight what they say is the gap between Tory and Labour pledges on military spending.
After the initial announcement, Sunak wants to ensure he gets full public credit for the big spending commitment while pushing Labour on its failure to match the promise.
Labour says that the Tory spending plan does not add up.
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Israel arms embargo ‘not a wise path’
On Monday, Sunak will use a set-piece speech to mount the argument that there is a need for security at home and abroad in an ever-increasingly dangerous world and describe the country as being at a crossroads at the next general election.
In a further major political dividing line, Labour has broken with the government and called this weekend for a suspension of arms to Israel, placing it alongside the United States.
However the Tory government is holding firm, arguing that now is not the time and that Britain only supplies a small amount of the munitions used by Israel.
Some people inside government suggest that the US government position is driven by President Biden’s need to take a tougher position to shore up votes in the upcoming election race.
Sunak’s Monday speech is one part of a set of security-themed announcements by the government, following Lord Cameron’s media blitz at the weekend.
On Monday, deputy foreign secretary Andrew Mitchell will address a Tory-leaning think tank, while on Tuesday Defence Secretary Grant Shapps will make a speech, with Chancellor Jeremy Hunt speaking on Friday.
Also, Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden will lead a trade delegation this week to Saudi Arabia.
Although boosting trade will be the focus, Saudi Arabia, like Qatar, is one of the backchannels used by the UK to deliver messages to Hamas.
Three men have been charged with offences under the National Security Act including assisting Hong Kong’s intelligence service and foreign interference.
Chi Leung (Peter) Wai, 38, Matthew Trickett, 37, and Chung Biu Yuen, 63, will appear at Westminster Magistrates’ Court today, the Metropolitan Police said.
It follows an investigation led by officers from the Met’s counter terrorism command in which 11 people in total were detained.
Eight men and a woman were arrested by officers on 1 May in the Yorkshire area, before a man was arrested in London and another man was arrested in the Yorkshire area the following day, the force said.
The seven men and one woman who were not charged were released from custody on or before 10 May.
Commander Dominic Murphy, head of the Met’s counter terrorism command, said: “A number of arrests were made and searches carried out across England as part of this investigation.
“While these offences are concerning, I want to reassure the public that we do not believe there to be any wider threat to them.
“This investigation remains ongoing, but now that charges have been brought, I urge people not to speculate or comment further in relation to this case.”
Wai, of Staines-upon-Thames, Trickett, of Maidenhead, and Yuen, of Hackney, are each charged with assisting a foreign intelligence service and with foreign interference, contrary to the National Security Act.
“The foreign intelligence service to which the above charges relate is that of Hong Kong,” the Met Police said.
Young homebuyers are being forced to gamble with their retirement prospects by taking on ultra-long mortgages, according to a former pensions minister.
Sir Steve Webb described data – supplied by the Financial Conduct Authority to the Bank of England – as “shocking”.
It suggests that more than one million new mortgages have been issued over the past three years with end dates beyond the state pension age.
The ex-Liberal Democrat MP, who is now a partner at the consultancy firm LCP, voiced fears that borrowers could be forced to raid their pension savings to clear their mortgage in a worst-case scenario.
Sir Steve saw the potential for harm in any case, as longer-term mortgages deprive people of a period running up to retirement when they could be mortgage-free and boosting their pension.
According to the Freedom of Information data requested, 42% of new mortgages in the fourth quarter of 2023 – or 91,394 – had terms going beyond the state pension age.
The figure stood at 38% in the same period a year earlier.
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Jan: Starmer and Sunak clash over mortgages
In the final quarter of last year, people aged 30 to 39 accounted for 30,943 new mortgages lasting beyond state pension age, while people aged 40 to 49 accounted for 32,305.
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Under-30s made up 3,676 of these mortgages.
People aged 50 to 59 accounted for 18,854, and there were 661 who were over 70.
Mortgage rates have been rising since the end of 2021 when the Bank of England began action to tackle rising inflation.
Taking home loans with longer maturity dates tends to be more attractive when interest rates are high, as monthly repayments are lower.
Sir Steve said: “The huge number of mortgages which run past state pension age is shocking.
“The challenge of getting on the housing ladder is forcing large numbers of young homebuyers to gamble with their retirement prospects by taking on ultra-long mortgages.
“We already know that millions of people are not saving enough for their retirement and if some of that limited retirement saving has to be used to clear a mortgage balance at retirement they will be at even greater risk of poverty in old age.
“Serious questions need to be asked of mortgage lenders as to whether this lending is really in the borrower’s best interests.”
The FCA’s responsible lending rules require lenders to take account of future changes to income and expenditure, such as the borrower retiring, where this was expected to happen during the mortgage term.
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3:28
‘Path is downwards’ on interest rates
Emily Shepperd, the FCA’s chief operating officer, admitted in a speech to the Building Societies Association last week that lending into retirement was moving “from a niche to a norm”.
“Alongside longer terms we also see a greater proportion of mortgages projected to mature around state retirement age,” she said.
“The projected median age of a first-time buyer at maturity is now 65 years old, up from 56 in 2005.
“The proportion of mortgage customers over 67 is currently less than 2% of all loans. By 2040 this rises to 5%, and by 2050 it is almost 10%.”
She said that building societies recognise the need to consider different income and expenditure sources and needs, different lifestyle risks and different capacity to weather financial shocks, adding: “With borrowers projected to hold debt for longer, now is the time to ask yourself about the products and services you will provide to those borrowers to meet their needs responsibly and help them meet their financial goals – what will you need to do to support this growing population of customers and deliver good outcomes?
“Getting this right will of course benefit those individual customers, enabling them to meet their housing needs in later life, and move if that is their aim.
“It may also support first-time buyers with an increase in the supply of homes.”
Karina Hutchins, principal for mortgage policy at lenders’ body UK Finance, said: “The proportion of longer-term mortgages has been increasing in recent years as buyers to look for ways to stretch their affordability.
“When reviewing new mortgage applications, lenders will act within the responsible lending rules set by the Financial Conduct Authority and carefully consider whether the borrower will be able to afford their mortgage in the future.
“This will include whether the requested term would take the borrower beyond their anticipated retirement age.
“Where this is the case, it is common practice for lenders to request proof of pension. Those closer to retirement, usually within 10 years, may need to satisfy their lender that they can afford the mortgage based on their retirement income.
“Whilst longer mortgage terms can offer lower initial monthly repayments, the borrower will pay more in interest and have less disposable income to put into their pension if the mortgage runs for its full term.
“We would encourage customers to speak to an independent mortgage adviser to discuss the best options available for their specific circumstances,” she concluded.