Connect with us

Published

on

Hedge fund titan Bill Ackman predicted the Federal Reserve will begin slashing interest rates as early as the first quarter to avert “a real risk of a hard landing” for the US economy.

Fed officials have unanimously decided to keep the benchmark federal funds rate at its current 22-year high, between 5.25% and 5.5%, for the past two policy meetings with little indication that they’ll slash interest rates following the next two-day meeting on Dec. 12 and Dec. 13.

Ackman told Bloomberg that if the Fed keeps rates around the 5.5% range while inflation trends below 3%, thats a very high real rate of interest.

Inflation, meanwhile, has been decelerating. October’s Consumer Price Index which tracks changes in the costs of everyday goods and services — rose 3.2%, a slowdown from September’s 3.7% advance, but a figure Fed Chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly reiterated is still above the Fed’s 2% goal.

Whats happening is the real rate of interest, which is what impacts the economy, keeps increasing as inflation declines, Ackman told Bloomberg.

I think theres a real risk of a hard landing if the Fed doesnt start cutting rates pretty soon, Ackman added, noting that hes seen evidence of a weakening economy.

Traders however, aren’t fully pricing in a rate cut until the end of 2024’s second quarter, in June, Bloomberg reported, citing swaps market data.

The chance of a cut happening in May is some 80%, the data showed.

Though Ackman didn’t elaborate on the “evidence” he sees that the US economy could be headed towards its first recession since 2007, last month’s surge in long-term Treasury yields stoked fears of a hard landing.

At the time, bond yields briefly surpassed 5%, making it more expensive for consumers and companies to borrow money, thereby undercutting the economy and increasing the risk of a recession.

Ackman, whose made his name building up Pershing Square Capital Management’s $17 billion portfolio, insisted to Bloomberg that he’s not convinced the US economy is headed for a “soft landing,” in which the Fed would be able to continue its tightening regime while staving off a recession.

He acted on this belief back in August, when he shorted 30-year Treasury bonds — a move that netted Ackman’s fund a profit of about $200 million.

Representatives for Ackman at Pershing Square did not immediately respond to The Post’s request for comment.

Economists have also largely predicted that an interest rate cut is forthcoming, especially given a weaker-than-expected jobs report in October, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the US economy added 150,000 jobs.

The unemployment rate is now 3.9%, the agency said, above the Fed’s 3.8% year-end forecast.

Inflation has also trended weaker than central bankers’ estimates as Americans see some reprieve from the Fed’s aggressive tightening cycle, which began in March 2022.

Rates have since increased at a pace not seen in 40 years, and the Fed hasn’t cut interest rates in over a year despite falling inflation.

Continue Reading

Sports

Ohio St. dominates Michigan to snap losing streak

Published

on

By

Ohio St. dominates Michigan to snap losing streak

ANN ARBOR, Mich. — Julian Sayin threw three touchdown passes, including a 35-yarder to Jeremiah Smith on a fourth down in the second quarter, and No. 1 Ohio State beat No. 15 Michigan 27-9 in a dominant performance on Saturday.

The defending national champion Buckeyes (12-0, 9-0 Big Ten, No. 1 CFP) likely earned a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff. They can keep their top seed with a win against No. 2 Indiana (12-0, 9-0, No. 2 CFP) in the conference championship game Saturday night in Indianapolis.

Ryan Day should sleep well, a year after losing The Game when his team was favored by about three touchdowns. The upset extended his losing streak in the series to four games and sparked speculation he might also lose his job.

The Wolverines (9-3, 7-2) started strong with two field goals and an interception on the first three possessions of the game, but couldn’t generate pressure when Ohio State wanted to pass.

After throwing an interception on his second snap, redshirt freshman Sayin took advantage of the time and space he had to throw.

Sayin was 6 of 6 for 68 yards with two touchdowns on third and fourth down in the first half, including a 4-yard throw to Brandon Inniss with 16 seconds left that made it 17-9 at the break. He finished 19 of 26 for 233 yards and threw for at least three touchdowns for the sixth time this season.

Continue Reading

Sports

Sources: Sumrall the favorite to land Florida job

Published

on

By

Sources: Sumrall the favorite to land Florida job

Tulane coach Jon Sumrall has emerged as the clear favorite to be the next head coach of the Florida Gators, sources told ESPN’s Pete Thamel.

Florida turned its attention away from Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin earlier this week after getting the sense through irregular communication that he is interested in other options, likely a move to LSU or remaining with the Rebels, sources told ESPN on Friday.

Sumrall is expected to make a decision on his future by Sunday morning as he considers staying at Tulane or a move to Gainesville. He also received significant interest from Auburn, but the Tigers have since shifted their focus to other candidates, another indicator that Florida looms as the clear leader for Sumrall’s services, sources said.

Sumrall, a former SEC player at Kentucky, where he later served as an assistant coach and co-defensive coordinator, is 18-7 in two seasons at Tulane. He also won back-to-back Sun Belt titles as head coach at Troy in 2022 and 2023.

Sumrall, 43, garnered outside interest after his first season with Tulane, earning a contract extension after just one season at the helm.

Tulane (9-2) hosts Charlotte on Saturday night in its regular-season finale. The Green Wave can clinch a spot in the American Conference championship game against North Texas with a win over the 49ers.

Continue Reading

World

Hong Kong mourns those lost to fire as investigators search for remains

Published

on

By

Hong Kong mourns those lost to fire as investigators search for remains

Grief was not lonely today in Hong Kong. Three days after the worst fire in the history of modern Hong Kong, it feels as though it has barely sunk in.

The weekend at least lent them time to pay tribute, and gave them some space to reflect.

People came in droves to lay flowers, so many a queuing system was needed.

People queue with flowers near the site to mourn the victims of the deadly fire. Pic: AP
Image:
People queue with flowers near the site to mourn the victims of the deadly fire. Pic: AP

Official books of condolences were also set up in multiple parts of the city.

It was the first day large teams of investigators were able to enter the site. Dozens of them in hazmat suits were bused in, their work the grimmest of tasks.

Every so often you could see a flashlight peep through the window of an upper blackened window, a reminder that the fire services are still undertaking dangerous work.

But the reach of the authorities is ramping up here.

Firefighters walk through the burned buildings after the deadly fire. Pic: AP
Image:
Firefighters walk through the burned buildings after the deadly fire. Pic: AP

Yesterday a grass roots aid distribution centre was the vibrant heart of the response.

They received notice at 4am that they needed to pack up and move on. By 10.30am, the mountains of donations were gone, residents watched on, bewildered.

The task apparently will be handed over to professional NGOs.

“I think the government’s biggest concern is due to some past incidents,” one organiser tells us. “They may liken this to previous events. The essence looks similar.”

Pic: AP
Image:
Pic: AP

She’s careful with her words, but she’s clearly hinting at major pro-democracy protests that were crushed by authorities in 2019.

Any sort of mass gathering is now seen as a risk, the system is still very nervous.

And they might well be because people here are angry.

What, they ask, did the government know? What did it choose to ignore?

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

How Hong Kong’s government failed to act on fire fears

Indeed, Sky News has learnt that residents raised their fears over fire safety connected to extensive renovations on Wang Fuk Court as early as September 2024.

They flagged the suspected flammability of green nets being used to cover the building.

An email response from the Labour Department was sent a few months later to Jason Poon, a civil engineer-turned-activist, who was working with residents. It insists that “the mesh’s flame retardant properties meet safety standards”.

But many clearly didn’t believe it. Posts spanning many months on a residents’ Facebook group continued to voice their fears.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Hong Kong fire survivors supported by community

When a much smaller fire broke out in the city last month, one resident posted: “All the materials outside are flammable, I feel really worried.”

“I feel that same way” another replied. “The government has no sense of concern.”

For Poon, who dedicates much of his time to fighting lax safety standards in Hong Kong’s construction industry, the whole experience has been devastating.

“They knew all the maintenance was using corner-cutting materials, but they didn’t do anything,” he says.

“This is a man-made disaster.”

We put these allegations to Hong Kong’s Labour Department but they have not yet responded to our request for comment.

Grief may still be the prominent force here, but anger is not that far behind.

Continue Reading

Trending