Hedge fund titan Bill Ackman predicted the Federal Reserve will begin slashing interest rates as early as the first quarter to avert “a real risk of a hard landing” for the US economy.
Fed officials have unanimously decided to keep the benchmark federal funds rate at its current 22-year high, between 5.25% and 5.5%, for the past two policy meetings with little indication that they’ll slash interest rates following the next two-day meeting on Dec. 12 and Dec. 13.
Ackman told Bloomberg that if the Fed keeps rates around the 5.5% range while inflation trends below 3%, thats a very high real rate of interest.
Inflation, meanwhile, has been decelerating. October’s Consumer Price Index which tracks changes in the costs of everyday goods and services — rose 3.2%, a slowdown from September’s 3.7% advance, but a figure Fed Chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly reiterated is still above the Fed’s 2% goal.
Whats happening is the real rate of interest, which is what impacts the economy, keeps increasing as inflation declines, Ackman told Bloomberg.
I think theres a real risk of a hard landing if the Fed doesnt start cutting rates pretty soon, Ackman added, noting that hes seen evidence of a weakening economy.
Traders however, aren’t fully pricing in a rate cut until the end of 2024’s second quarter, in June, Bloomberg reported, citing swaps market data.
The chance of a cut happening in May is some 80%, the data showed.
Though Ackman didn’t elaborate on the “evidence” he sees that the US economy could be headed towards its first recession since 2007, last month’s surge in long-term Treasury yields stoked fears of a hard landing.
At the time, bond yields briefly surpassed 5%, making it more expensive for consumers and companies to borrow money, thereby undercutting the economy and increasing the risk of a recession.
Ackman, whose made his name building up Pershing Square Capital Management’s $17 billion portfolio, insisted to Bloomberg that he’s not convinced the US economy is headed for a “soft landing,” in which the Fed would be able to continue its tightening regime while staving off a recession.
He acted on this belief back in August, when he shorted 30-year Treasury bonds — a move that netted Ackman’s fund a profit of about $200 million.
Representatives for Ackman at Pershing Square did not immediately respond to The Post’s request for comment.
Economists have also largely predicted that an interest rate cut is forthcoming, especially given a weaker-than-expected jobs report in October, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the US economy added 150,000 jobs.
The unemployment rate is now 3.9%, the agency said, above the Fed’s 3.8% year-end forecast.
Inflation has also trended weaker than central bankers’ estimates as Americans see some reprieve from the Fed’s aggressive tightening cycle, which began in March 2022.
Rates have since increased at a pace not seen in 40 years, and the Fed hasn’t cut interest rates in over a year despite falling inflation.
We got to ride a pre-production model of a striking new e-bike/e-moped, the Owlet One, with lots of power in a small package.
We first met Owlet at Electrify Expo in Long Beach, CA, where we only had a couple minutes on its bike. But since the company is headquartered nearby in Los Angeles, they emailed us asking if we’d like a longer test ride, and delivered a bike to us for to spend a few hours on this time.
Just to set the stage for this ride: Owlet is a new brand, preparing to ship its first bike. So to start off, we rode a prototype, not the finished version. This means it may come with different features, and we’re not entirely sure when it will ship, either.
The first thing to notice about the Owlet One is its design, which certainly stands out immediately. The bike is made of aviation-grade aluminum, though is still quite hefty, tipping the scales at 84 lbs (but it felt even heavier in our hands).
On top of Owlet’s striking design, the bike is also somewhat of a unique shape and size. Despite offering a format that looks similar to an e-bike at first glance, it rides more like a small moped. This actually puts its 84lb weight into a different perspective – rather than being heavy for a bike, it can be thought of as light for a moped.
But photographs can’t encapsulate everything about the design of the Owlet, because it has one totally unique feature: an adjustable wheelbase.
This can be done by one person in under a minute, though requires a socket wrench and a small amount of elbow grease.
In practice, I found that the adjustable wheelbase probably won’t come up much for riding purposes. The longest wheelbase (or close to it) was the most comfortable and stable to me, and shorter wheelbases were a bit more of a novelty, especially on this powerful bike which can get a little squirrelly on the shorter settings.
Another issue is that it changes the angle of the kickstand, which means you can’t really use the kickstand outside of a narrow wheelbase range. The final bike will supposedly have a different kickstand design, but this will likely be an issue regardless of how it’s redesigned.
But it was good for making the bike small enough to fit into places you might not normally be able to fit a moped-style bike. Between its narrow handlebars and shrunk down to its smallest 44-inch-long setting, it fit into the back of both a Tesla Model Y and an Audi A3 wagon (both with seats down), but not quite into a Model 3 – which I’ve fit multiple normal-sized bikes into the back of, though with the front wheel removed. Though its hefty weight does mean it can be awkward to lift the bike in there in the first place.
And it’s got more power than you’d expect out of most e-bikes too. With a 750W motor (3000W peak), there’s plenty of get up and go, and plenty to keep you going even as you reach closer to its 30mph top speed. This top speed can be lowered through the bike’s computer, to fit your local regulations.
Speaking of regulations, the bike is officially categorized as a motorized scooter, rather than an actual e-bike, as it doesn’t have pedals. It’s in a similar category to electric kick scooters, so you need to have any class of driver’s license to ride it, though it can be used either on or off public roads (but check your area’s regulations for sidewalk use, helmet requirements, and so on).
The shrouding on the front fork does restrict turning radius, but only when walking the bike in tight corners
The throttle we tested was a thumb throttle, though we would have preferred a twist throttle. The thumb throttle is just too twitchy, and on a bike with such peaky acceleration, it could get jumpy. This was especially true with shorter wheelbase settings. Owlet says there will be an option for a twist throttle when the bike ships, but we’d also like to see the software moderate acceleration on the very low end even with the thumb throttle.
And the bike is fully throttle-driven – there are no pedals, only pegs. Owlet plans to offer an option for pegs attached to the front to allow a different, more laid-back seating position.
The motor, kickstand and pegs. This is the final wheel design, rather than the traditional spoked design in Owlet’s press photos above
I tested the bike with a few accessories I had laying around, but because of the Owlet’s unique design, not all of them would fit (the handlebar cupholder seen in some of my photos doesn’t come with the bike, for example, which has no bottle cage mount). You’ll probably want a backpack if you’re planning to carry things on this bike, rather than saddlebags or the like.
The bike’s owl-like headlights fit well with the brand name. The charging outlet is in the “beak”
Owlet says the bike’s 1500Wh battery (made with 2170-format cells) can take you around 40-60 miles, and comes with a 350W charger for a ~5 hour charge. Based on our test ride, we think this range is reasonable or perhaps even conservative – but I’m also a pretty lightweight rider at 155lbs, and always remember that e-bike ranges vary widely depending on terrain and rider.
The seat has a very cool look to it and is comfortable to sit on, partially due to integrated seat suspension. The front fork also has 3.5 inches of suspension travel. I’d have liked for both suspensions to be a little looser, but that is again likely due to my relatively light weight.
All of this comes with a caveat: we rode a prototype here, not a final bike. So the bike was missing some final features, some features weren’t working (like the headlight), and so on. Owlet says that specifically the LCD and foot stands will be changed, but we imagine other tweaks are possible (we hope one of the LCD changes makes it easier to read with polarized sunglasses – it was a bit tough, which is true of many, but not all, bike computer screens).
Owlet also has plans for a future bike, the Owlet 2, which is more solidly in the moped category, with a less wild design and higher range and top speed. Owlet shared an early prototype fact sheet with us, but given the One is already a bit of a ways out from delivery, don’t hold your breath for the 2 yet.
In short, the Owlet is a fun, quirky ride with a very design-forward ethos. If you’re looking for a bike that doesn’t look like any other, it could be worth looking into. Though it’s definitely on the unorthodox side and you have to be willing to accept its eccentricities when compared to more conventional two-wheeled devices.
The company is taking $50 refundable deposits for its bike, which it has said it wants to ship around March – but it also says that it’s waiting for a minimum batch quantity of preorders first, and that shipments would take 3-6 months after that, so we imagine March could be optimistic. If you want to get in line, you can reserve one here.
The bike will cost $3,995, though early reservers can get it for $2,995, along with an engraved serial number and a 1 year warranty/service package. Owlet wants to have service locations around LA and possibly one in New York, to begin with. It will distribute the bikes by shipping them directly to customers.
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CMC North America’s new, electric 65L tracked aerial lift is perfect for working indoors, lifting two workers and 500 lbs. of material to heights of over 65 feet – previously unheard of reach for a unit this size.
Officially capable of lifting a maximum weight of 507 lbs. to a maximum working height of 65 feet (hence, 65L) and maximum lateral reach of 34 feet, CMC says its new 65L is an ideal solution for both indoor and outdoor maintenance crews.
To deliver on that promise, CMC says operators can leverage fully 90 degrees of rotation for its two-man basket, as well as 180 degrees of turret rotation. Articulation that, when combined with the 65L’s narrow track that lets it go through a 36″ man door, will enable operators to access even the trickiest work areas.
The new 65L lift is also relatively light weight. Coming in at “just” 6,569 lbs., CMC says its 65L can safely operate on delicate flooring surfaces such as finished hardwood, tile, or marble – making it ideal for work within museums, schools, or shopping centers. The company also says the remarkably low PSI exerted by the 65L also reduces potential damage to landscaping or other ground surfaces when compared to heavier options.
A murder investigation has been launched after a woman’s body was found in the boot of a car in east London.
Detectives said a murder inquiry has been launched into the “suspicious” discovery in Ilford.
The woman, who has not been named but is from Corby in Northamptonshire, may have been the victim of a “targeted incident”, police say.
“Fast track” enquiries were made after the force was contacted by a member of the public with concerns about the welfare of the woman.
This led to the discovery of a body inside a car boot.
Northamptonshire Police said: “The investigation is ongoing and there will be continued police activity over the weekend in various locations, including Corby and Ilford.
“Although we believe that this was a targeted incident and there is no wider risk to members of the public, extra patrols will be taking place in Corby in the coming days for reassurance purposes.”
Detectives from the East Midlands Special Operations Unit major crime team and the Metropolitan Police are working on the case, to try and establish the circumstances that led to the woman’s death.